Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

People are weird.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

In after Baud. Damn.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

This fight is for everything.

We’re not going back!

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

Dead end MAGA boomers crying about Talyor Swift being a Dem is my kind of music. Turn it up.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

This country desperately needs a functioning Fourth Estate.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Maybe you would prefer that we take Joelle’s side in ALL CAPS?

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 982: Russia Double Tap Strikes Kharkiv, Attacks Odesa, Drone Strikes Sumy

War for Ukraine Day 982: Russia Double Tap Strikes Kharkiv, Attacks Odesa, Drone Strikes Sumy

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is doing great. She’s started jumping up on the bed again! Thanks you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Russia conducted a double tap strike on Kharkiv earlier today:

Here’s the October 2024 Ukrainian air defense tally:

In October, russia launched a record number of strike UAVs at Ukraine with a total number of 2,023 UAVs.

Ukrainian air defenders destroyed 1,185 drones, while 738 were lost from radar. Additionally, 29 drones left the Ukrainian-controlled airspace.

Ukraine needs more air defense to protect our people from russian terror.

The General Staff reported 2,000 strike drones in October. That means 170,000 foreign components in these drones: microchips, microcontrollers, processors, voltage regulators, transceivers… Without them, the Shaheds wouldn’t fly. Sanctions effectiveness is insufficient.

Manufacturers: American companies Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, CTS Electronic Components, Maxim Integrated; Swiss STMicroelectronics, U-Blox; Chinese Bixinda; Irish Taoglas…

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

First Thousands of North Korean Soldiers Are Not Far from Ukraine’s Border – Address by the President

1 November 2024 – 22:38

North Korea has tested a new ballistic missile. This occurred the day before. Record flight time and sufficient altitude. Yet the world is just watching. Watching as this threat grows.

North Korea has learned to make better artillery. This has already happened, thanks to cooperation with Moscow. It has also learned to make better missiles – this is already evident. Now, sadly, it will learn modern warfare. The first thousands of North Korean soldiers are not far from Ukraine’s border. Ukrainians will be forced to defend themselves against them. And the world will be watching again.

We have repeatedly said that such threats should not be given the time to grow. Russia should not be allowed to seek and find allies. No enemy of the free world should be given the time to grow.

What connects Pyongyang and Moscow? Only their ambition for warfare.

Now, we see every site where Russia is accumulating these North Korean soldiers on its territory – all their camps. We could strike preventively if we had the capability to hit with sufficient range. And it depends on our partners. Yet instead of providing the much-needed long-range capabilities, America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching. Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean military to start targeting Ukrainians.

We know all the logistics between Russia and North Korea that help Russian aggression, and these logistics must be blocked. It depends, among other things, on powerful Asian states. It depends on China, which frequently talks about ending the war. Yet remains an observer. And while these words are being spoken, North Korean soldiers are heading to the front.

Everyone in the world who truly wants to prevent this Russian war against Ukraine from expanding and spreading beyond Europe to other regions of the world – everyone must do more than just watch. We must act. Words about the unacceptability of the escalation and expansion of the war must be matched by deeds.

North Korea’s involvement in this war in Europe is a threat to the entire world.

A threat that must be stopped.

Zelensky places blame for not being able to preemptively strike North Korean troops solely on Ukraine’s biggest partners: “We know where these North Korean troops are gathering in Russia. We could act preemptively if we had the means—long-range capability. Yet, America, the UK, and Germany watch.”

After Russian strikes and shelling, and amid the emergency and critical situations the enemy creates against our country, our people can always count on help, no matter the circumstances.

I am grateful to each and every one of you who arrive at the scene after Russian attacks in all our regions, clear the rubble, extinguish fires, provide first aid, and – above all – ensure the rescue of our people.

The State Emergency Service, police, medical professionals, volunteers, and everyone involved in saving lives – Ukraine is proud of you.

Here’s the full text of Minister of Defense Umerov’s tweet:

I held a weekly call with 🇺🇸@SecDef Lloyd Austin. I am grateful to our American partners for their support of Ukraine in our fight for independence.

We discussed the current situation on the front lines, specifically in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions. We also separately addressed the involvement of North Korean military personnel in the war against Ukraine.

We focused on continued U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense industry. For our side, Ukraine is actively developing its own production capabilities and is thankful to the United States for assistance in this direction. Together with our allies, we will continue strengthening our defense by ensuring the Armed Forces have everything they need.

The partnership between Ukraine and the United States is a real force on the battlefield. 🇺🇦🇺🇸

This is a very nice statement from Umerov. Both the expression of gratitude and the statement regarding the value of the Ukrainian-American relationship.

Unfortunately, Umerov knows it is a lie, but it is a lie that he has to keep repeating.

From The Kyiv Post:

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent charge that only ten percent of the military assistance the US said it would transfer to Ukraine this year has actually reached Ukrainian troops, is largely accurate, a Kyiv Post review of figures published by the Pentagon found.

Speaking at a meeting with reporters in Reykjavik on Wednesday, Zelensky said one of Ukraine’s many problems battling Russian invasion is that allied-promised arms assistance arrives too late or not at all – which complicates defense planning and kills and injures Ukrainians.

In the case of the US, Ukraine’s biggest military materiel supporter, a whopping 90 percent of military assistance approved by Congress for FY 2024 has yet to reach the battlefield, the Ukrainian leader said.

“This is the problem. What to do, for example, when Russia gains (more Ukrainian territory and takes) some steps forward in the East? You [Ukraine’s leadership] do your job. You count your reserves. You count on special brigades. You count on such-and-such [foreign-donated] equipment. And then, if you get ten percent of that package, [which has] already been voted on …You know, it’s not funny… the Congress voted. It’s not a question of money, it’s bureaucracy and logistics,” Zelensky said, speaking in English.

Based on Pentagon-published official figures, Zelensky’s ten percent delivery claim is probably a fairly, if not absolutely accurate estimate of the actual numbers of US arms put into the hands of Ukrainian troops so far this year, Kyiv Post found.

In a move seriously damaging Ukraine’s ability to fight, the US stopped all military assistance to Kyiv at the end of December because of Congressional wrangling over border law reform and political maneuvering between Democratic and Republican leadership eyeing upcoming elections

The five-month American embargo on arms transfers to Ukraine ended on April 24 when US President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan bill approving $60.84 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, to be completed by the end of FY2024.

Since then Pentagon aid disbursements, for the most part drawing down existing US hardware or munitions stocks which the funds would replace, have been steady at one or two support packages a month – each almost always valued well below a billion dollars, a volume distinctly less than what would be needed, to buy all the weaponry and assistance Congress approved for Ukraine for the year.

According to the Pentagon figures published in December 2023, a few days before US arms assistance to Ukraine was cut off, the total value of that assistance, counted from the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion, was $44.9 billion.

An Oct. 21 press release (the most recent on Ukraine assistance published by the Pentagon) placed the value of US military assistance earmarked for Ukraine, incorporating all money actually spent on Ukrainian military support in 2024, at $59.5 billion.

The difference between those two official numbers – $14.6 billion – is less than one quarter of the nearly $61 billion of military assistance approved by Congress in April 2024.

Zelensky’s Wednesday ten percent claim implied that, of the $14.6 billion worth military assistance for Ukraine that the Pentagon had actually said it has earmarked or spent in 2024, slightly more than $6 billion worth is in the hands of Ukrainian troops, and $8.6 billion was paid or will soon be bought, and is so somewhere in the delivery pipeline.

Long lag times between a Pentagon declaration that a weapons system is en route to Ukraine and its actual appearance on the battlefield are a matter of record. The powerful M1 Abrams tank, the planned transfer of which was first formally announced in January 2023, was only reported in country by official sources in September, and actually seen on a battlefield for the first time in November.

President Joe Biden has said all money earmarked for arms to Ukraine will get spent. On Sept. 26 he announced the US would send more than $5 billion in weapons from Pentagon stocks to Ukraine by January, and contract for the production and delivery of another $2.4 billion for air defense systems, drones and bombs.

Based on pace and scale of Pentagon arms packages sent Ukraine between April and October 2024, and even including the $7.4 billion the US leader said he was planning for in September, the White House and Pentagon are on track to spend markedly less than half of the $60.084 billion Congress approved for Ukraine, Kyiv Post estimates.

Congressionally appropriated money not spent by a US Federal agency during the fiscal year, in which it was approved, is not typically carried over to the next year and is effectively lost.

A Wednesday evening broadcast by Ukraine’s Channel 5 Television, one of the country’s oldest and most widely watched news platforms, was entitled “Why Has Ukraine Received Only Ten Percent of the Assistance Congress Voted For?” It told viewers the 90 percent gap between promised US military aid and actual arms deliveries was real, and exists because Washington is dragging its feet on Ukraine assistance.

The Ukrainian web news magazine Telegraf published an article on Wednesday article about US arms deliveries to Ukraine headlined: “Time to Get Ready for Problems with United States Aid”. Political Scientist Maksym Yakolev said: “Considering the… rift in US politics, Ukraine should prepare for the worst.”

For want of a nail!

The Pentagon keeps announcing new security assistance packages, like the one announced today.

The United States is providing a new security assistance package, which has an estimated value of $425 million.

The capabilities in this package include:
* Munitions for NASAMS
* Stinger missiles
* Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions
* Air-to-ground munitions
* Ammunition for HIMARS
* 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
* TOW missiles
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
* Stryker APCs
* Small arms and ammunition
* Medical equipment
* Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
* Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

We are grateful to our American friends for their steadfast support.

Together, we are stronger.
Together, we can win!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

The Ukrainians keep publicly thanking the US, President Biden, Secretary Austin, and the American people. We know that money is being spent domestically because of these security assistance packages:

The US’ support for Ukraine has tremendously contributed to local business. Virtually all money was invested in many US states. Ammunition in Pennsylvania, MRAPs in Wisconsin, Stingers in Arizona, Abrams in Ohio, Bradleys in Virginia, Javelins in Alabama and practically every other state which supplies every component down to the last bolt.

Red and Blue states alike are both supporting the fight for freedom and it is important to highlight what unites both sides. Putin wants to shatter this. There is literally no human being on Earth who hates America more than him. He never processed the fall of his beloved Soviet Union and he will use every agent and every useful idiot to propel his sinister agenda.

So, where the hell are the weapon systems, weaponry, weapons, munitions, and other material actually going? If domestic investment is happening, which has been documented, if stocks are being drawn down, which has also been documented, but only 10% or so is making it to Ukraine, where is the money, what it is buying, and the material from existing stocks?

That is the question!

Poland:

Poland has started construction of the Eastern Shield on the border with Belarus and Russia, – Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The Eastern Shield involves the construction of fortifications, barriers and military facilities on NATO’s eastern borders.

The shield will be 700 kilometers long, will cost nearly $2.5 billion, and is scheduled to be completed by 2028.

“The government intends to create a comprehensive defense infrastructure on NATO’s eastern flank to counter threats from Belarus and Russia,” Donald Tusk’s office said.

North Korea:

Here’s a detailed assessment by Artur Rehi on the potential efficacy of North Korean forces:

The participation of North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will not bring about major changes and they will probably suffer major losses, said Colonel Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center. However, in the Donetsk region,
1/16Image
Russian armed forces still hold the initiative and have forced the Ukrainian armed forces to gradually retreat, he added. “Unfortunately, there is nothing positive from the Ukrainian front line this week. The Russian Armed Forces still hold the initiative along the entire
2/16Image
front line, which has forced the Ukrainian armed forces to gradually retreat,” Kiviselg said at a Defense Ministry press conference. According to him, the average number of attacks per day remained at the same level as in previous weeks, i.e. about 167 attacks per day.
3/16Image
“The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are capable of capturing most of the territories in the Donetsk region, primarily in the areas of Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka. Over the past week, the Russian Federation has occupied an additional 150 square
4/16Image
kilometers of territory in these regions,” Kiviselg said. “In addition, there are signs that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are preparing assault strikes in the area of ​​​​the Zaporizhzhia region. It is likely that the already known to us 76th Airborne Division
5/16Image
with a permanent deployment location in Pskov, Then the goal will be to capture new territories, as well as additional involvement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this region,” Kiviselg said. “To summarize, it can be said that alarming events continue to occur in the
6/16Image
Donetsk region and the Donetsk region. It is possible that the Russian Armed Forces will achieve a local breakthrough in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo or Vuhledar areas this year,” he added. The Russian army has asked to extend the deadline for taking Kursk. Speaking about
7/16Image
the arrival of North Korean soldiers at the front, Kiviselg said that according to Ukraine, 3,000 soldiers of the 11th Army Corps of the North Korean Armed Forces, including several hundred servicemen of the North Korean special forces, have arrived in the Kursk region.
8/16Image
“These servicemen probably arrived on the territory of the Russian Federation in early October, where they underwent preliminary training in the Eastern Military District, which lasted approximately two to four weeks, after which they were sent to the Ukrainian front,”
9/16Image
Kiviselg said. “In total, North Korea had to allow the Russian Federation to send from 10 to 12 thousand soldiers, including 500 officers and three generals. Probably, the arrival of North Korean soldiers to the Ukrainian front will take place in stages. “The arrival of
the
10/16Image
next North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will take place in the coming weeks,” Kiviselg said. Kiviselg said that, as a rule, North Korean soldiers are trained for combat in mountainous terrain, which means that the territory of Ukraine, its climate and geography are
11/16Image
unknown to them. “And therefore, their training does not actually require combat in such areas. The training they receive in the Russian Federation is certainly not very good. “Therefore, we can expect that North Korean units will suffer heavy losses in Ukraine, and
12/16Image
presumably even heavier losses than the armed forces have suffered in the Russian Federation so far,” Kiviselg said. Despite this, Kiviselg believes that it is possible that North Korea will continue to send units to Russia and the Ukrainian front. “Despite this, the
13/16Image
intelligence center’s assessment is still that this sending of North Korean units to the Ukrainian front will not bring about major changes at the moment. But if this kind of additional sending of units to Russia, their training, and then their arrival at
14/16Image
the Ukrainian front continues for a long time, then this could certainly bring about certain changes on the front line,” Kiviselg said.
15/16Image

Source

16/16

South Korea:

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol is weighing directly providing arms to Ukraine, a potentially consequential shift in the conflict, in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to the Russian front line.

Seoul has previously resisted entreaties from western allies to draw on its vast stockpiles of military armaments, preferring to contribute to Kyiv’s war effort through non-lethal aid. But North Korea’s deployment in Russia’s western Kursk region, which US officials said on Thursday could be as large as 8,000 troops, is shifting that calculation, according to analysts and diplomats.

Yoon and other senior officials in Seoul have described Pyongyang’s direct participation in the conflict as a threat to South Korea’s security, offering North Korean troops valuable battlefield experience. They also fear Moscow may share sophisticated military technologies in exchange for Pyongyang’s support.

Yoon has vowed not to “sit idle” in response to the North Korean deployment. His office confirmed this week that Seoul intended to send a delegation to Ukraine to monitor the North Korean forces, following a call on Tuesday between Yoon and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

But the prospect of directly supplying arms to Ukraine has been fiercely opposed by South Korea’s leftwing opposition, which holds a majority in parliament and blames the Yoon administration’s hardline stance towards North Korea for pushing Pyongyang into Moscow’s embrace.

“[Arming Ukraine] is an incredibly dangerous idea that treats people’s lives like pawns in a game of chess,” Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the Democratic party, told a party rally last week, arguing South Korea had no direct interest in the outcome of the war.

Yoon “shouldn’t engage South Korea in a proxy war with North Korea . . . in a faraway land”, said Park, adding that deepening Seoul’s involvement would “risk starting a military conflict on the Korean peninsula”.

“The South Korean government is caught between foreign partners asking for it to do more and an opposition demanding it does less,” said Jeongmin Kim, lead analyst at Seoul-based information service Korea Pro.

South Korea’s decades-long preparations for a possible renewal of hostilities with its northern enemy, coupled with its defence industry’s formidable manufacturing capacity, have created a large stockpile of weaponry including artillery shells, tanks, howitzers and surface-to-surface missiles.

A US ally, South Korea is a regular attendee at Nato summits and supplies several of its members. Analysts said its arms would largely be compatible with those already in operation among Ukraine’s forces.

“South Korean support for Ukraine could turn the tide on the entire conflict,” said Henry Haggard, a senior adviser at consultancy WestExec Advisors who served as minister-counsellor for political affairs at the US embassy in Seoul between 2021 and 2023.

“Korean firms not only make world-class armaments tailor-made to help Ukraine, they also have the production capacity to deliver essential weapons at a speed that could make a difference when needed most,” he added.

South Korea has provided support indirectly to Ukraine by replenishing US stocks of 155mm artillery shells delivered to Kyiv. “European governments are aware that South Korea has provided more artillery shells to Ukraine than all European countries combined, even if via third countries,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at King’s College London.

Zelenskyy said on Thursday that he was sending a representative to Seoul to make “detailed” requests for artillery and air defence systems in light of the North Korean deployment to Russia.

But Seoul has until now declined to initiate direct lethal aid, citing the country’s Foreign Trade Act, which restricts arms exports “except for peaceful purposes”.

Pacheco Pardo said there had been “an understanding between Seoul and Moscow that South Korea wouldn’t provide direct lethal aid to Ukraine, while Russia limited its support for North Korea”.

Russia’s ambassador to Seoul declared this year that South Korea was “one of the friendliest among the unfriendly countries”.

But Pacheco Pardo said the understanding was “now over”.

“I think the Yoon government will provide lethal aid to Ukraine if it has proof that Russia has increased its support to North Korea, particularly the transfer of technologies that can help Pyongyang develop its missile, satellite, space and other high-tech programmes,” he said.

A Seoul-based European diplomat said the South Korean government’s position on arms supplies “has moved” since the North Korean deployment, “but very, very cautiously”, noting that Seoul was likely to wait for the outcome of the US presidential election before deciding on its next step.

Jeongmin Kim said the Yoon administration appeared to be preparing to argue that providing lethal aid did not require parliament’s support and would not violate the Foreign Trade Act, on the grounds that arming Ukraine would contribute to international peace by helping bring the war to an end.

But Yang Uk, a defence expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, argued that direct military support would help Seoul repay its historic debt to countries that sent troops to defend South Korea during the Korean war in the 1950s.

“We had the same experience when North Korea invaded us that Ukraine is having now,” said Yang. “The world came to help us then, so now the least we can do is contribute to the global order in return.”

There is more at the link.

The US:

From the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI):

Joint ODNI, FBI, and CISA Statement on Russian Election Influence Efforts

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 28-24
November 1, 2024

 

Joint ODNI, FBI, and CISA Statement on Russian Election Influence Efforts
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released the following statement:

“The IC assesses that Russian influence actors manufactured a recent video that falsely depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia. This judgment is based on information available to the IC and prior activities of other Russian influence actors, including videos and other disinformation activities. The Georgia Secretary of State has already refuted the video’s claims as false.

Russian influence actors also manufactured a video falsely accusing an individual associated with the Democratic presidential ticket of taking a bribe from a U.S. entertainer.

This Russian activity is part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans, as detailed in prior ODNI election updates. In the lead up to election day and in the weeks and months after, the IC expects Russia to create and release additional media content that seeks to undermine trust in the integrity of the election and divide Americans.”

Sumy:

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv has been under daily russian strikes lately. All aimed at civilians, russia clearly resumes its tactics of daily terror against our city once again.

Please don’t look away! We need your support and advocacy. We need to be able to strike into russia, stronger air defense, and more military aid to stop the daily terror!

Odesa:

Kreminna:

🚨 Tear Gas Attack on Ukrainian Trenches in Kreminna Forest 🚨 Watch the video to see the harsh realities our soldiers endure on the front lines. This is why your support is critical, help us provide the equipment they need to survive these attacks.
Source: Telegram

Stand with our heroes.

➡️ https://linktr.ee/1t1f

#OneTeamOneFight
@Dmitro7607 @Harri_Est @JoelTheDane

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Покажу всю свою колекцію качечок, якщо це відео набере 50к лайків! 🌝🐾 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – House of Auto

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I will show you my entire collection of ducks if this video gets 50k likes! 🌝🐾 #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

13Comments

  1. 1.

    Ksmiami

    Let’s get Kamala elected then she can put in a younger, better defense team. And ffs allow Ukraine to attack Russia

  3. 3.

    Another Scott

    So, where the hell are the weapon systems, weaponry, weapons, munitions, and other material actually going? If domestic investment is happening, which has been documented, if stocks are being drawn down, which has also been documented, but only 10% or so is making it to Ukraine, where is the money, what it is buying, and the material from existing stocks?

    A little bird told me that government procurement is insanely complicated. I don’t know how it works with the PDA, but procurement in general has to follow the Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR). Lots and lots and lots of details and laws and rules and paperwork.

    And, as I understand it, Congress giving the DoD $XB in FY24 that has to be “spent” by 9/30/2024 has a very specific meaning. The money must be “obligated” by then for a specific purchase. That means the worker bees in Purchasing/Contracts have to have gotten relevant quotes that satisfy the requirements of the FAR, and the specifications, and get all the signatures and approvals and so forth to be able to put it in the giant database as being “obligated”.

    Once funds are “obligated”, then (as I understand it), up to 2 years can pass before money is actually spent via a transfer from the US Treasury.

    The the Purchasing/Contracts person has to advertise the need on SAM.gov (in one of several ways depending on which section of the FAR is used). Time passes. Bids are evaluated. Time passes.

    A contract is signed, specifying all the relevant things.

    Now the work on the widgets that Uncle Sam wants begins. Time passes.

    The widgets are delivered. The person who requested the item in the Purchase/Contract now inspects the items and decides whether they can be accepted or must be rejected.

    The company sends an invoice to Uncle Sam.

    If the items are accepted, then that’s marked in the giant ledger and the vendor can request payment from the US Treasury. That’s when the money is finally “spent”.

    So, it’s not at all surprising that if FY24 money to buy new widgets requires something other than transferring stuff via PDA that already exists in some warehouse, it will take time – potentially a lot of time.

    As I say, I don’t know how it works with the PDA mechanism. But I would expect that only extreme cases would result in masses of equipment being sent in just a few weeks – these are complicated financial and logistics systems.

    My bottom line assumption is that the people in the trenches of these complicated systems are doing the best they can. They don’t write the rules and the laws, they just try to carry them out as best they can. Congress’s mania for fighting “waste, fraud, and abuse” often makes the systems more complex, slower, more frustrating for the workers, and more expensive.

    My $0.02.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: I’ve had to sit through Defense Enterprise Management at a senior leader college (war college). I’ve also helped run an Army wide enterprise/directorate. I know how it works; all of it. Or, often, doesn’t work. This is a whole new level of doesn’t work

    You’re also missing all the statements that stuff was staged in Poland and other parts of Europe, just ready to go out the door. Or it was ready in the US to be immediately sent.

  7. 7.

    lore

    Thank you for these posts Adam. I rarely comment but I always read. I’m very glad to hear your Rosie is feeling much better!

    Some I guess more optimistic folks I listen to on YouTube, like Jake Broe, have made a couple suggestions on the 10% figure I was hoping to get your thoughts on:

    1. That the Pentagon is spacing out deliveries because the $60B aid approved in April may be the last that ever makes it through Congress.

    2. That the U.S is effectively paralyzed until after the election.

    I’m just clinging to hope that Harris will win with a mandate and a better team to help Ukraine. And our own military, it feels like a lot of shortcomings have been laid bare in our systems there.

    Thank you.

  8. 8.

    KatKapCC

    Unfortunately, Umerov knows it is a lie, but it is a lie that he has to keep repeating.

    Salt in the wounds we keep inflicting on them. “We’re not going to help you actually defend your land or people, and we’re going to make you keep lying about how great we are.”

    We need to stop thinking of ourselves as a great nation, because a truly great nation would not allow another great nation to be destroyed before our eyes.

  11. 11.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman: As I say, I don’t know the details about how the PDAs work.  It’s complicated.

    I did some looking this morning.

    166 page PDF for the Q3 IG report to Congress on Operation Atlantic Resolve:

    President Biden signed the fifth supplemental appropriation for Ukraine into law on April 24, 2024. Enacted as part of a larger national security funding bill, this legislation provides nearly $60.78 billion for the U.S. Government’s Ukraine response, of which more than $48.43 billion will be administered by the DoD, nearly $11.62 billion by State and USAID, and approximately $0.73 billion by other U.S. Government agencies.29 (See Figure 1 and Table 2.) Additional U.S. Government funding for the Ukraine response has been provided through the annual U.S. Government agency appropriations acts.30

    The U.S. Government provides security assistance to Ukraine and regional partners through a wide range of programs and authorities. Below are some of the major programs funded through the Ukraine supplementals:

    Figure 1.
    FY 2022–FY 2024 Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations

    Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA): PDA is not a funding source but rather an authority that allows the President to provide military assistance from existing defense articles in the DoD’s stocks, subject to a statutory cap.31 The statutory limit for PDA is $100 million worth of weapons and equipment transferred worldwide per year.32 However, in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Congress increased the caps on PDA to $11.00 billion for FY 2022, $14.50 billion for FY 2023, and $7.80 billion for FY 2024 in the Ukraine supplemental appropriations acts, providing $33.30 billion in cumulative PDA through June 30.33

    As of the end of the quarter, the DoD reported more than $24.75 billion in PDA drawdowns for FY 2022 through FY 2024.34 The DoD notified Congress in 2023 that it had overvalued previously reported PDA by more than $6.23 billion, and it has since applied more than $3.32 billion of this recovered PDA authority for PDAs 44 through 56, announced from August 14, 2023, through April 24, 2024.35 Annual PDA drawdowns net of recovered authority did not exceed each fiscal year cap.36 During the quarter, the DoD OIG issued an audit of the DoD’s revaluation of the PDA support, which identified an additional $1.91 billion overvaluation in previously announced PDAs.37

    (Emphasis added.)

    Most of the Supplemental is in things other than PDA. And the “PDA is an authority”, not funding. (This stuff is complicated.)

    June 2024 memo from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency:

    Effective immediately, Section C11.2. “Drawdowns” of the Security Assistance Management Manual (SAMM) is updated to clarify when services and articles are considered delivered and when title transfers. This change is in direct response to the Government Accountability Office’s recommendation that the Secretary of Defense clarify the definition of delivery used to populate the Department of Defense system of record for Presidential Drawdown Authority (reference a).

    That’s just one change to the regulations.

    Policy Memo List – EChange shows a couple of dozen (or so) policy changes that have been made in 2024.

    This stuff is complicated. People are doing their best.

    Yes, we don’t live in the best of all possible worlds and things can and should be done better. 100% agreement there.

    Thanks for your efforts here.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  12. 12.

    wjca

    @Aziz, light!: This is no way to run a war. Imagine if these procedures had be en in place during  WWII.

    When you get serious about a war, a lot of red tape goes right out the window.  It gets replaced, typically, by criminal sanctions against any company or individual who fails to do the right thing.  And, because they are ‘letting our boys get killed”, juries tend to be less than sympathetic.

    It is amazing how much we can do, and how fast, when the shackles come off.

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