Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Democrats are back in array!

Itā€™s the corruption, stupid.

Iā€™d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are ā€œtheyā€ and not ā€œwe.ā€

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day canā€™t get worse.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

The media handbook says ā€œcontroversialā€ is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Bark louder, little dog.

Letā€™s not be the monsters we hate.

Iā€™m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

So many bastards, so little time.

if you canā€™t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Saturday Night Treat Open Thread: The Des Moines Register Shows Harris Moving Up

Saturday Night Treat Open Thread: The Des Moines Register Shows Harris Moving Up

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Ann Selzer has a well-established reputation for predicting winners. “Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here’s how”:

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa ā€” a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the stateā€™s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time…

The results come as Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to shape the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.

ā€œItā€™s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,ā€ said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. ā€œShe has clearly leaped into a leading position.ā€ …

Polls are not votes, etc… but I wonder if TFG’s handlers will be able to hide this news from him before his next rally?

Reader Interactions

108Comments

  1. 1.

    KatKapCC

    I don’t know a single person in Iowa, but if they go blue, I’ll send fruit baskets to the Des Moines city hall or something.

  3. 3.

    JeffH

    @Baud: Presumably undecideds.

    Edit: Which in this context I suspect means a lot of people who thought they were going to vote for Trump, but are now not sure.

  4. 4.

    Jackie

    I wonder if TFGā€™s handlers will be able to hide this news from him before his next rally?

    I sincerely hopeĀ NOT! šŸ¤­

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    Anne Selzer has a hell of a good track record polling Iowa, and if she’s right with this one, her entry into the Pollster Hall of Fame is guaranteed. Fingers crossedā€¦.

  8. 8.

    Brent

    @JeffH:

    Not all.Ā  Some are RFK.Ā  Some for the Libertarian candidate.Ā  I think I remember seeing like 5-6% undecided.

    But it doesn’t really matter.Ā  She doesn’t need Iowa but if its even close… If she gets 46-47% of the vote in Iowa,Ā  she is going to win in a landslide in the EC.

  12. 12.

    dmsilev

    @Baud: if you look at the full story, itā€™s a few percent for RFK (who I guess didnā€™t bother trying to remove himself from the Iowa ballot), the Libertarian, a few percent undecided and a couple ‘declined to state’.

  13. 13.

    HumboldtBlue

    NEW YORK (AP) ā€” Vice President Kamala Harris has made an unannounced trip to New York to appear on ā€œ Saturday Night Live,ā€ briefly stepping away from the battleground states where sheā€™s been campaigning with just three days to go before the election.

    Harris departed on Air Force Two after a campaign stop on Saturday in Charlotte, North Carolina. She was scheduled to head to Detroit, but once the aircraft was in the air, aides said it was actually going to New York.

    Her appearance on the show was confirmed by three people familiar with Harrisā€™ plans who were not authorized to speak publicly about them. It is the final SNL episode before Election Day on Tuesday.

  14. 14.

    Steve LaBonne

    @Baud: This is kind of what you expect if Plouffe is right about late deciders breaking strongly for Harris. It’s really encouraging that so many signs seem to be pointing in that direction.

  16. 16.

    VeniceRiley

    @eclare: Yes! I hope it’s funny. I don’t think she would do the cold open if it wasn’t funny. Cannot wait to see it tomorrow.

  19. 19.

    dmsilev

    @Baud: Even allowing for margin of error, if Trump wins Iowa by say one percentage point, it pretty much means heā€™s screwed in all of the closer states in the Midwest.

    So, basically, Selzer is putting down a marker about how a broad swath of the country will go. As you say, takes a lot of certainty in your data and analysis.

  21. 21.

    Steve LaBonne

    The one thing that would doom Republicans beyond any hope of saving themselves by voter suppression is to turn enough wypipo against them. Trump is giving it the old college try.

  24. 24.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @eclare:

    Friend just texted that Harris is going to be on SNL tonight!

    Winderful! TCFFG is already suing CBS for election interference. Might as well go after NBC too!

  28. 28.

    Adam

    I remember that the 2016 Selzer poll was the first sign to me that Hillary might be in real trouble. Cautiously optimistic, but if this holds, itā€™s gonna be a bloodbath, Trump might not win Florida.

  29. 29.

    Suzanne

    Mr. Suzanne just had the most hilarious response to the Selzer poll.

    It’s now officially Balloon Juice After Dark, so I bet you can guess.

  30. 30.

    RevRick

    @Baud: The shift in the poll results indicates that undecideds are massively breaking towards Kamala. And if thatā€™s the case in Iowa, that sentiment is not unique to that state!

  33. 33.

    KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))

    Obama won Iowa in both 2008 and 2012. It’s not impossible. Unlikely, maybe, but not impossible.

    I’m starting to get goosebumps. This feels like a dream, but don’t wake me up.

  34. 34.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    TCFFG is already suing CBS for election interference. Might as well go after NBC too!

    Ha! That was my first thought too when the SNL news broke.

  36. 36.

    Tony Jay

    This is what it looks like when a highly organised and not easily tricked national political campaign thinks itā€™s not just done its job in its heartlands, but has solid evidence itā€™s picking up enough crossover votes in ā€˜enemy countryā€™ that it can risk floating its candidate as a guest on popular culture media days before an election.

    Can you imagine the optics of Shrub being confident enough to appear on SNL days before the 2000 election while Gore was chasing votes in toss-up states? That confidence is a big deal. Thatā€™s the belief you can sweep up normally ā€˜canā€™t be arsedā€™ votes shouted out loud. Thatā€™s scraping the bowl because you donā€™t want to waste a bit of the good stuff because youā€™re so confident in your recipe.

    I am so looking forward to November 6th.

  39. 39.

    brantl

    “Oh, it’s ketchup-throwing time are Mara Lardo….” (wish I knew the symbol for a musical note)

  41. 41.

    Jeffro

    @Brent:She doesnā€™t need Iowa but if its even closeā€¦ If she gets 46-47% of the vote in Iowa,Ā  she is going to win in a landslide in the EC.

    A relative landslide, yes, especially in these times.

    I have had Harris/Walz at 319 EVs when all is said and done and I’m going to stick with that. Ā But adding in Iowa – which might well mean they’ve done well enough to win Florida too – would be 325/355 EVs. Ā Earthshaking.

    (I suspect the GOP push to get rid of the EC would begin about .05 seconds afterwards, but it’ll be worth it!)

  44. 44.

    RevRick

    ā€œWe should ask God to increase our hope when it is small, awaken it when it is dormant, confirm it when it is wavering, strengthen it when it is weak, and raise it up when it is overthrown.ā€ John Calvin

    I think God just whispered a word of hope through Ann Selzer*.

    *I think Selzerā€™s polls are so accurate, because she has a reputation in Iowa of being a straight shooter, and therefore Iowans would be thrilled to be polled by her.

  45. 45.

    hitchhiker

    On Nov 4, 2016 Ann Selzer had trump winning Iowa by 7 points, which seemed absurd — this was after Obama had won the state twice and Hillary was expected to win the presidency easily. He won by more than 8 in Iowa.

    Selzer only works in Iowa & never polls anyplace else because she doesn’t know the people or the politics. Who knows what this means! I fucking don’t. I do know that just for a little while I feel like I might be waking up from a very weird & disturbing dream.

  52. 52.

    sukabi

    I wonder if TFGā€™s handlers will be able to hide this news from him before his next rally?

    Not if helpful folks post it to his TS account or tag him on twitter….

  53. 53.

    Tony Jay

    @Baud:

    I genuinely canā€™t see a way Harris/Walz can avoid winning this election by some chunky margin whatever they do from now on. The corporate media has tried sooooo very hard, but now theyā€™re looking past the 5th to bitching about the canapĆ©s available at the afterparty.

    Couldnā€™t be more confident.

  54. 54.

    danielx

    Dreaming of a blue Thanksgiving…oh, never mind.

    I don’t want the Beast just beaten, I want him crushed like a grape. Beaten like a rented mule. Stomped like he was chained to a rogue elephant’s foot. Humiliated – that most of all.

    I want the miserable swine beaten so badly it will be remembered for a century. Whatever it takes for the Republican Party to repudiate Trump, all his works, and all his hangers-on.

    And no fucking pardons, Kamala.

  57. 57.

    Anonymous At Work

    If the poll is ultimately accurate AND shows down-ballot tendencies, then that’s a trifecta.

    The problem down-ballot is that “permission structures” go both ways.Ā  A bunch of suburban women going, “I voted for Harris against the rapist, so now I can vote for the rapist’s toadies” is the nightmare.Ā  And, I think, that is what happened a bit under Biden in 2020. Looking at Maine and Wisconsin especially.

  60. 60.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Tony Jay:Ā ā€‹ 

    If you’re still up (and what about that Slotball, eh?) send me an email at humboldtblue65 at gmail dot com. I have some questions about total war rome

  61. 61.

    brantl

    @danielx: I want his fat ass kicked until it falls off, and I don’t care where they bury it, but I think we should pay reparations to the property-owner who owns where it does get buried.

  62. 62.

    lowtechcyclist

    @dmsilev:

    Even allowing for margin of error, if Trump wins Iowa by say one percentage point, it pretty much means heā€™s screwed in all of the closer states in the Midwest.

    So, basically, Selzer is putting down a marker about how a broad swath of the country will go. As you say, takes a lot of certainty in your data and analysis.

    This.Ā  Just the fact that Iowa is this close means that Trump is screwed, even if he manages to win Iowa.Ā  Nobody was even coloring Iowa a reddish purple anymore, it was just a former bellwether that had fallen into the red column.

    And Ann Selzer says Kamala is up by 3 there.

    Holy fucking shit!!!!!

  63. 63.

    catclub

    @eclare: Friend just texted that Harris is going to be on SNL tonight!

     

    I sure thought the Washington DC rally was planned and thrown together in about two days. Likewise this.

  65. 65.

    Lacuna Synecdoche

    Des Moines Register via Anne Laurie:

    ā€œItā€™s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,ā€ said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.

    I kinda did. Or, at least, I left Iowa, Ohio, and Indiana blank on my <a href="http://“>270toWin map, along with NC, FL, and GA.

    I’ve marked the rest of the swing states blue (leaning): PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV, and NE-CD2 (although I think NE-2 is just blue at this point and not really a swing district anymore).

    We’ll see what happens.

  69. 69.

    lowtechcyclist

    @brantl:

    ā€œOh, itā€™s ketchup-throwing time are Mara Lardoā€¦.ā€ (wish I knew the symbol for a musical note)

    Even better, it’s ketchup-throwing time on his campaign plane.Ā  Man, the inside of that flying tube is gonna be coated with Heinz.

  71. 71.

    catclub

    @Brent: But it doesnā€™t really matter. She doesnā€™t need Iowa but if its even closeā€¦ If she gets 46-47% of the vote in Iowa, [AND the shift in Iowa is representative of other states] she is going to win in a landslide in the EC.

     

    QualifiedTFY

  72. 72.

    Jeffro

    I see Cole has already bigfooted this thread, which bigfooted the previous one, which…

    …it’s just big damned feet, all the way down! Ā LOL

    BJ as usual, whaddya gonna do?

  73. 73.

    catclub

    @lowtechcyclist: The Atlantic Article on ‘Inside the Trump campaign’ has lots on seating arrangements on the plane, who is on and who is off.

    I can also bet that Corey Lewandowski was not a source, but Wiles and LaCivita probably were.

  76. 76.

    lowtechcyclist

    @RevRick:

    ā€œWe should ask God to increase our hope when it is small, awaken it when it is dormant, confirm it when it is wavering, strengthen it when it is weak, and raise it up when it is overthrown.ā€ John Calvin

    But what does Thomas Hobbes have to say? ;-)

    “There are three things that last forever: faith, hope, and love.” – some guy named Paul

  85. 85.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Suzanne:

    I’m glad you guys enjoyed hearing about that poll even more than I did! :D

    Nothin’ going on here: my wife is afraid to even hope, alas.

  86. 86.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Jess:

    Watterson went out of his way to not let his strip be commercialized that way Peanuts has, so there is no legally sanctioned Calvin & Hobbes merchandise.

    Despite that, I have a Calvin & Hobbes t-shirt. It has pictures of John Calvin and Thomas Hobbes, with their surnames underneath.

    @RevRick:

    Considering I can’t draw worth shit (my son was a better artist than I am when he wasn’t even 3 yet, and I am not exaggerating), and my sense of humor wouldn’t work well in that medium anyway, you’d have to do all the work.

  88. 88.

    NotMax

    @Suzanne

    Triggered memory of a quote.

    “The two things you cannot do effectively on stage are pray and copulate.”
    – Orson Welles
    :)

  89. 89.

    Fake Irishman

    @Jeffro:

    Trump States closer than Iowa in 2020:

    Ohio

    Texas

    Florida

    North Carolina

    This poll could be wrong, but weā€™re seeing it in context with Harris being within five in Kansas and three in Ohio and another poll in Iowa showing her within three. So there might be some signal here too.

    im not drinking this yet, but this Kool-aid looks mighty tempting.

  90. 90.

    Suzanne

    @lowtechcyclist: He has been absolutely maniacal about canvassing for the last few weeks, but especially this weekend. Did a shift this afternoon, one yesterday, and he’s trying to do another shift tomorrow.

    Fuck I need this election to be over and that piece of shit to just crawl back into the sewer where he belongs.

  91. 91.

    Mousebumples

    I guessed Selzer would have Harris +1 yesterday, and that felt like wishcasting.

    Citation – https://bsky.app/profile/mousebumples.bsky.social/post/3l7vzlonmnz26

    For reference, Selzer called the 2008 Iowa caucus for Obama in her final pre-caucus poll. I wasn’t in Iowa by then, but I was appropriately impressed when she was right.

    Two more things –

    1) Nelle is making a difference in Iowa! šŸ«¶

    2) Spouse of a friend knows Selzer personally (from some music thing, I think), and says she’s really a lovely person. Not that that makes her math skills any better, but I like hearing about good people, especially when there are so much crap in the political world.

  94. 94.

    MazeDancer

    Ann Selzer is beyond Gold Standard. Ā People in Iowa, right now, are going nuts.

    Poll shows a 35 point lead with women over 65. Ā That’s the bonafide “We’re not going back” crowd.

  100. 100.

    Damien

    I dunno whatā€™s going to happen on Tuesday, but Iā€™ve been making calls from 7am to 7pm PST every day since Monday and the vibe is huge. Tbh, maybe itā€™s because Iā€™m ballot chasing and Iā€™m just huffing that hopium, but fuck it: at this point shoot it straight in my veins.

    Iā€™m leaving it all on the floor ā€” I know weā€™re all leaving it ā€” and if that isnā€™t enough, then thatā€™s what it is.

  101. 101.

    Bill Arnold

    @Baud:

    I home Harris doesnā€™t make any cow jokes on SNL tonight.

    I have been trying to determine whether the GOP elephant is a bull or a cow elephant.
    Mainly because of certain Trump hand motions in his recent rally behavioral suite; the member of a bull elephant is prehensile.
    Probably best if Harris doesn’t go there. (Videos are easily found.)

  105. 105.

    MinuteMan

    If Harris is playing well in Iowa, Mangolini’s goose is seriously cooked: you could put a fork in him but it’s pretty clear he’s well overdone—like his steaks ;-(.

  107. 107.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @lowtechcyclist: I saw a post which pointed out that Iowa sells a LOT of agricultural products abroad, and the farmers are NOT interested in a trade war with the rest of the globe cause by Trump’s proposed tariffs.

  108. 108.

    Doug

    The legend lives on from the polling team on down
    Of the big thing they call women voting
    The veep ā€” pay this heed ā€” never gives up her lead
    When the votes of Roevember come calling
    She ran up the score twenty-six thousand votes more
    Than the court of our land had reckoned
    That orange man and crew were a bone to be chewed
    When the votes of Roevember came early

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