Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. Do not congratulate. This is not business as usual.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

This fight is for everything.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

When they say they’re pro-life, they don’t mean yours.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 983: Shaheds Swarm Kyiv

War for Ukraine Day 983: Shaheds Swarm Kyiv

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Screen shot of painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a grey border. On the left is a Ukrainian apartment block in the background. In the left foreground is an armored forearm and fist blocking incoming Russian rockets and missiles. The Russian rockets and missiles are red and have the "Z" symbol on them. The backgound is black. Above the armored arm and fist, written in white, is "Every Single Day in Ukraine."

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing very well. We did a .75 mile walk this morning and despite her wanting to go farther, we headed home as I don’t want her to overdo it as she builds her stamina back up.

Russia used their Iranian sourced Shaheds to swarm attack Kyiv. It began early this morning and lasted for over six hours.

The constant terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities prove that the pressure on Russia and its accomplices is insufficient. Since 4 a.m. today, air raid alerts have been ongoing across Ukrainian cities.

Tragically, the Russian drone attacks have caused damage and casualties in various districts of Kyiv, with additional strikes and damage reported in the Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.

I am deeply grateful to our defenders of the skies who have been successfully shooting down “Shahed” drones ever. This year, we have faced the threat of “Shahed” drones almost every night—sometimes in the morning, and even during the day. These strike UAVs, supplied to Russia by Iran, have become one of the primary instruments of Russian terror against Ukraine.

More pressure is urgently needed to limit Russia’s ability to produce such weapons. We require the capability to destroy “Shahed” storage bases as well as the entire infrastructure for their production and logistics. Unfortunately, the terrorists know how to take advantage of the time granted to them by the indecision of the free world.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

In October, More Than 2,000 “Shahed” Drones Were Used Against Ukraine, Literally, Every Single Day – Address by the President

2 November 2024 – 20:38

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, first and foremost, our gratitude goes to our warriors. To all those who defend Ukraine from the daily attacks of “Shahed” drones and missiles. Russia is gradually escalating this activity. And, sadly, it is still able to use Western components for this.

In October, more than 2,000 “Shahed” drones were used against Ukraine, against our people. Literally, every single day. This number of “Shahed” drones means more than 170,000 components that should have been blocked from being supplied to Russia. Microchips, microcontrollers, processors, and lots of different parts without which this terror would simply be impossible.

All this is supplied to Russia from abroad. And sadly, including from companies in China, Europe, America – lots of micro-contributions to the constant Russian terror. And this, again and again, brings the world back to the need to work much harder to control the export of special components and resources. To prevent Russia from circumventing the sanctions that have long been imposed on Russia for this war.

As with “Shahed” drones – the same applies to Russian missiles. They all have components from other countries. Fighting against Russian strikes means, among other things, fighting for the power of sanctions against Russia. Sanctions must be increased; they must be effective. And every scheme to circumvent sanctions is a crime against people and the world. It is precisely such schemes that allow Russia to help build the strength of the Iranian and North Korean regimes. This is a global threat. And only global, special pressure can overcome it.

Today I would like to commend our military who have been the most effective in countering the “Shahed” drones over these very weeks. Mobile firing group “Master” of the 35th separate marine brigade, mobile firing groups “Uzhyk” and “Sherkhan” of the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade, mobile firing group 494 of the 14th radio engineering brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytskyi, as well as mobile firing groups 513 and 631 of the 636th separate anti-aircraft machine gun battalion of the Land Forces, and also mobile firing group number 9 of the 7th tactical aviation brigade. I thank all of you for your work, for your service; I thank everyone who defends Ukraine so effectively.

I spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. He made a report on the frontline situation. The main directions: Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Lyman and all other directions. Toretsk direction as well. I thank all our warriors for their bravery! Every position we defend and every position we regain is important for the entire front, for all of us.

I am grateful to the warriors of the 79th separate airborne assault brigade – the guys are fighting in the Kurakhove direction. Also, other directions in the Donetsk region: the 38th separate marine brigade – well done! The 68th separate jaeger brigade – thank you, warriors! Orikhiv direction – I thank all the warriors of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade and the 141st separate infantry brigade. Also, Prydniprovskyi direction – the 124th and the 126th separate territorial defense brigades – thank you!

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! To all who work for our state, for all our people! I thank everyone in the world who helps us to defend our right, Ukraine’s and every nation’s right to its own life!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Alexander Malkevich, the U.S.-sanctioned founder of a Russian troll factory who meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, was in Georgia during the election period and attended a ruling party campaign event.

The U.S. government is offering a $10 million reward for information that leads to the identification or location of Malkevich. Apparently, very recently, that location was Tbilisi.

We have seen Russian propaganda, coming from the ruling party, take over the entire Georgian pre and election information environment. It is becoming clear who was involved and how.

North Korea:

The western fear of escalation has reached such high levels, that the US feels the need to separately emphasize that North Korean soldiers fighting the Ukrainians are legitimate military targets.

Saying that out loud is almost comical. What would even be the alternative? Ukrainians shouldn’t shoot North Koreans at all? Of course they are legitimate targets, why the prefix “make no mistake” – has there been disagreements over this?

With such statements, it’s guaranteed that Russia will dare to raise the stakes in the future as well.

Putin isn’t interested in words. The only effective response is one that actually hurts the Russians. Otherwise the message sent to the enemy is that “we’re ok with what you’re doing, please continue.”

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

Ukraine’s military intel directorate @DI_Ukraine says latest info indicates Russia has armed the North Korean troops in Kursk with 60mm mortars, AK-12 assault rifles, RPK/PKM machine guns, SVD/SVCh sniper rifles, Feniks anti-tank guided missiles, and RPG-7 shoulder-launched anti-tank rocket launchers.
US and Ukraine assessed Thursday that around 8,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk and about 50km from the Ukrainian border, preparing to fight within “days.”

https://ft.com/content/9cf42928-f9bd-4f95-b0af-3a1b8cd90fa4

From The Financial Times:

Washington and Kyiv have warned North Korean troops are expected to enter combat alongside Russia’s army in the coming days, in what would be the first foray by a foreign military into the war launched by Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday raised the alarm over Moscow’s deepening military collaboration with Pyongyang, saying his army was likely to face North Korean troops in the western Russian region of Kursk in “days, not months”.

The president’s comments were followed by a stark warning from US secretary of state Antony Blinken and US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, who said that as many as 8,000 North Korean troops had been deployed to the Kursk region.

The US had not seen the troops “deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces but we would expect that to happen in the coming days”, Blinken said, speaking alongside Austin and their counterparts from South Korea after a meeting at the state department.

Zelenskyy said at least 3,000 North Koreans were at a “training camp” in the Russian region of Kursk, where his troops are occupying some 600 sq km of land taken during a surprise incursion in August.

Washington’s assessment added fresh detail to recently disclosed US intelligence indicating that about 10,000 North Korean troops were in Russia. Zelenskyy and Ukrainian intelligence officials have said upwards of 12,000 North Koreans were in the country, including several hundred special forces, 500 officers and three generals.

Kyiv’s ambassador to the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya, told a meeting of the Security Council on Wednesday that Ukraine had identified the generals as Colonel General Kim Young Bok, deputy chief of the general staff for special forces operations; Colonel General Lee Chang Ho, deputy chief of the general staff and head of the reconnaissance directorate; and Major General Shin Geum Cheol, head of the main operational directorate.

More at the link.

The US:

From Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics:

I’m beyond outraged by Russia’s advances in Ukraine and the West’s utterly weak—or even nonexistent—response.

Many argue that the Biden administration has been strong on Ukraine, but in fact their policies and actions have been nothing short of terrible. Here’s the evidence 1/ 

1. There has been “zero” response to North Korean troops in Russia prepared to fight Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine has been prohibited to strike North Koreans by the US until they come on Ukraine soil. Some say this is a sign of the West’s defeat 2/

There is a double standard. The US doesn’t impose restrictions on Israel. The US supplied weapons can be used by Israel any way it sees it fit. Apparently, the escalation is not an argument there either 3/ 

2. Russia has escalated attacks on Ukrainian cities, with 2000 Shahed drones in October up by 40% from September. This is 66 drones every day. 3/

Russia has substantively intensified its attacks the last weeks. What is the US response? None. The administration talks about Russian losses being unsustainable. But what about Ukrainians? 4/

So, instead of responding in kind and increasing support, the US has supplied only 10% of defense aid authorized by the Congress this year 5/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
3. It is the US that opposes admitting Ukraine to NATO, instead of showing leadership and convincing other opposing nations 6/ 

Most amazingly, there is still talk in Washington and other western capitals about “de-escalation” or “not escalating further”. It is Russia that is escalating in response to weakness of the West and, specifically, the US administration 7X

Fascinating that there are some 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia and ‘leaders’ in the West are concerned that helping Ukraine target Russian positions in Russia that launch attacks against Ukrainian civilians would be escalatory and turn Western countries into co-combatants. Russia can escalate with North Korean and Iranian help to its cold heart’s content, but in the European theatre, whose stability is a ‘core interest’ of the West, it is solemnly declared that NATO states should not get directly involved. Middle East and Asian bad actors have unilaterally obtained for themselves a multiple entry visa to Europe with no restrictions to kill Ukrainians. Western leaders cry foul but keep long range attack missiles and other key capability on the sidelines. The political-military muscle memory of the Cold War has so dramatically dissipated that strategic arthritis has set in to the detriment of Europe’s security.

But I als remember people making an argument that the Biden administration will escalate and strengthen its response to Russia once Biden is not a candidate anymore

Let’s wait for a week and see who wins and what their response will be. But the U.S. credibility is severely damaged

Brussels:

At an event in Brussels focused on the rehabilitation of Ukrainian soldiers, participants were reportedly targeted in a gas poisoning attempt.

After a film screening about the war in Ukraine, attendees noticed a strange smell and signs of poisoning. Event organizers stated that this was yet another provocation by Russia. Several people were hospitalized. An investigation is ongoing.

We have a term for these types of things: acts of war.

The Siversk front:

Today, November 2, 2024. 10th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian assault on the Siversk front:

“Our defenders successfully repelled a massive Russian attack on the position of the 10th Brigade. The enemy used 22 units of armored vehicles (7 tanks, 13 BMP, 2 MT-LB) and about 120 infantry for assault operations.

Thanks to the coordinated work of our fighters, ATGMs, reconnaissance and drones, the approach of the enemy was detected in time, and Russian assault groups were stopped on the approaches to the positions. As a result of the battle, 6 tanks and 9 BMPs were destroyed, the enemy suffered losses in manpower: 19 were eliminated, 23 were wounded.”

https://t.me/edelweiss10tg/1464

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Russian occupied Crimea:

Russian Podlet radar station was targeted a week ago in Crimea with a help of a drone:

“On 23.10.2024, a strike was carried out on the 48Ya6-K1 Podlet radar station in the area of ​​Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea.

The strike was carried out using UAV.

A week later, the radar station is still awaiting evacuation for further repairs.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/613

Donetsk Oblast:

Here’s a deep dive into the Russian offensive in southern Donetsk by Emil Kastelhelmi of the Blackbird Group:

The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.

The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/Image

The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/Image
In a short timeframe, Ukraine has very likely lost Selydove (over 21 000 pre-invasion residents), which is the largest city Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka. Simultaneously Russians also captured Hirnyk (10 000 pre-invasion residents). 3/Image
The Russians are now continuing east, and are likely trying to create an encirclement threat to force the Ukrainians to retreat from Kurakhivka. If they’re able to advance to the Kurakhivske reservoir, it would provide them with good starting points for further operations. 4/ 
In the southern direction, the Russians advanced 10 kilometers in just a few days. They now control at least most of Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka, and likely have complete control of Bohoyavleka. One could say that Ukraine can afford losing ground here, but I disagree. 5/Image
Losing much more ground here can have severe implications. The issues are clear when we look at the Ukrainian level of preparedness in the area. The Russians are currently flanking the last fortified main defensive positions in Novoukrainka, There’s not much beyond them. 6/Image
There are some field fortifications in the treelines, which we haven’t been able to map, but larger prepared positions don’t seem to exist, at least in sufficient numbers. The situation also doesn’t enable Ukrainians to start quickly digging more in the immediate proximity. 7/ 
The Russian pace of advance and the aerial capabilities likely won’t allow Ukraine to bring construction equipment very close to the front, at least without high losses for the Ukrainians. There also aren’t any very significant natural obstacles in the area, it’s mostly flat. 8/ 
In the big picture, these are the most strongly fortified and most defendable areas with the best natural obstacles. However, in the worst case scenarios the Russians are able to bypass and flank them by taking advantage of the current weak spots in the Ukrainian defence. 9/Image

Scenario 1:

A possible goal for Russia. After reaching the Kurakhivka reservoir, the Russians would continue their advance towards the town of Andriivka. Advancing on the ridgeline would mostly nullify its defensive advantages. 10/Image

Simultaneously, the southern push would continue to make progress through the unfortified fields, also towards Andriivka. This development could force the Ukrainian defenders out of the heavily fortified Kurakhove area, as the supply lines would be threatened. 11/ 
This would require significant forces and continuous success for the Russians. However, if they could pull off this maneuver, they could avoid an expensive grind against the vast trench networks and difficult ridgelines in the Kurakhove-Andriivka area. 12/ 

Scenario 2:

This would include the same idea, but on a smaller scale. The pincers would try to cut the defenders off at the nearest possible point, which would be Dachne. Despite losing Kurakhove, the defenders could continue fighting in more favourable positions. 13/Image

At the moment the Russians are struggling to expand their breach into a breakthrough. Even though the Ukrainians are losing many square kilometers, the defence hasn’t crumbled into chaos, and nothing extremely crucial has been lost. 14/ 
It’s very well possible that the Ukrainians are able to transfer reserves to the area and grind down the mechanized assaults before either of the aforementioned worst case scenarios materialize. However, if current trends continue, Ukraine could lose Kurakhove before 2025. 15/ 
In October, the Russians succeeded in occupying relatively large areas. According to our calculations, likely more Ukrainian land has been captured than in any other single month since the summer of 2022. In addition, Russia has recaptured some territories in Kursk. 16/ 
For reference, in dark red we see the assessed Russian-controlled area in the beginning of August 2024, before the Ukrainian Kursk offensive. The light red depicts areas captured after the Kursk operation in the eastern front. 17/Image

The overall situation is very concerning, and the Ukrainians are stretched thin. The coming winter will likely be difficult.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup will continue to monitor and analyze the situation. 18/18

Kharkiv:

Deadly fishing, anyone?

Fishermen in Kharkiv region have discovered a dangerous remote-controlled mine in a local pond. Local authorities have warned residents to exercise extreme caution, as unexploded ordnance remains a significant threat in the region.

Ukraine is now the most mined country in the world. This war will continue to kill our people for generations after it ends. Please support demining efforts.

Russian occupied Mariupol:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

8Comments

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    Trying not to be insensitive to your time commitments, but still anticipating that piece on Dougan.

  4. 4.

    YY_Sima Qian

    At what point does the Ukrainian Army needs to pull out of Kursk, retrench along the border, and reinforce Donetsk?

    As for the skepticism that the SK population & especially the opposition have to any attempt by Yoon to ramp up direct support to Ukraine, it is understandably frustrating, but we also cannot divorce SK actions wrt Ukraine from the larger domestic & NE Asian context. Yoon is a right wing politician w/ strong reactionary tendencies (SK’s Trump, though not as blatant), who won the election w/ the slimmest of margins & only because the Left wing split their ticket. So Yoon had little popular mandate on anything, & yet he leveraged the executive branch (particularly in FP where the SK presidency is ridiculously overpowered) to make dramatic changes. His administration has undermined protections of minority/disadvantaged demographics, prioritized (more than already is the status quo in SK) the interests of the large corporations, has been relentlessly hostile toward NK (who has been relentlessly hostile in turn), been more tightly aligned w/ the US (especially Japan) geopolitically against NK & the PRC, & (more reluctantly) partially aligned w/ the US on the tech war against the PRC. Most of these policies are deeply unpopular, although they tend to earn Yoon hagiographic praise from DC (just like Shinzo Abe, another reactionary revanchist, did). If there is one thing that broke the back of domestic support for Yoon, it was the “deal” w/ Japan on WW II era forced Korean labor, which let Japan off of any responsibility, & placed SK corporations (as opposed the Japanese government or Japanese corporations) on the hook for compensating victims. This caused disquiet even among the SK conservatives. It is likely a new left wing administration will overturn most of Yoon’s policies.

    w/ approval rating in the low 20s%, no economic leverage over NK, & fearful of Russia expanding transfer advanced missile & submarine tech to NK, Yoon has to tread carefully. This is before we get to the legal constraints that SK government faces to directly sell/donative equipment/munitions to Ukraine.

    As for the US, as frustrating as the Biden Administration’s inaction toward NK is, what can the US do to NK that it has not already done for decades?

  5. 5.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: what can the US do to NK that it has not already done for decades?

    About the only thing I could see is a deniable covert attack on the port(s) used to ship munitions to Russia.  Or, probably better, use a couple of Ukranian drones to attack the Russian supply ships and receiving port.  Whatever damages that supply line.  As ever, war turns on logistics.

    North Korea isn’t supplying all that stuff out of the kindness of Kim’s heart.  Losing, or even seriously reducing, that income from Russian may not be agonizing.  But it should be noticable.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Good luck getting even Yoon to sign off on that, & doing so w/o at least tacit agreement from Seoul might break the alliance, too.

    From SK’s perspective, the purpose of the SK-US alliance is to deter & defend against NK aggression, not getting SK sucked into a war w/ NK not of its choosing (or a war w/ the PRC over TW, for that matter).

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Also might be easier for Ukraine to attack the Tran-Siberian Railway, which Ukraine has done on occasion in the past.

  8. 8.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: might  be easier for Ukraine to attack the Tran-Siberian Railway, which Ukraine has done on occasion in the past.

    Easier to attack, sure.  But also probably easier to repair.  Blow up the docks, and it’s both a worse mess and harder to build an alternative route than it is for a railroad.  Unless you manage to blow up a mountain tunnel or something, where it isn’t possible to just lay down new parallel track a hundred meters away.

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