Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Fight them, without becoming them!

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

This country desperately needs a functioning Fourth Estate.

When we show up, we win.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Things That Might Help You Sleep Tonight, Part II

Things That Might Help You Sleep Tonight, Part II

by | 94 Comments

This post is in: ,

 

What we know so far:

[image or embed]

— Dan Chaon (@danchaon.bsky.social) November 1, 2024 at 10:40 PM

Hiighly reliable map of state by state voting based on our best polling data.

h/t Kelly

.

If someone finds this on YouTube, I will gladly post the link.

Who’s for Eva Braun here?  Who wants to burn books?  Who wants to spit on the Constitution of the United States of America?  Anybody?

Alright. Now, who’s for the Bill of Rights?  Who thinks freedom is a pretty darn good thing?  Come on, let’s see those hands!  Who thinks we have to stand up to the kind of censorship they had under Stalin?  Alright, there you go!

I’m gonna have to watch that movie again.

This is one of the bright lights we funded in Wisconsin.  We are the ones who have the best people.  Not all of the people we supported will win, but I hope this bright light does.

.

 

This is a sweet picture drawn by a little one for her mom.
I saved the image so even the folks who don’t want to click on twitter can see it.
But I got distracted and lost track of the original tweet, so I can’t credit it.

Things That Might Help You Sleep Tonight, Part II

I believe this man will be president some day.

How great would it be to win Georgia?  Again!

Sleep tight, Bj peeps!

Reader Interactions

94Comments

  2. 2.

    Yutsano

    It’s getting to the end of this all. Once again, I have to put my faith in the American people to make a decision that will change so many things on Tuesday. Here’s to a blue President, a Blue Senate, a Blue House, and a better tomorrow to come from all that.

  3. 3.

    japa21

    Ended day 14 of EV here in suburban Cook County today. Still extremely high turnout. From what I could observe, I would say the pro-Harris side is growing. Could be late mind maker uppers, or something else. Have one more day tomorrow, then go to my regular precinct to set up for Tuesday morning. Then up at 4 Tuesday, home, if lucky 9PM. Hopefully in better mood than the first time I worked a Presidential election in 2016.
    So sleep just isn’t really going to happen for a while.

  5. 5.

    caphilldcne

    I sent this as a response to Suzanne who is worried about PA in a dead thread below and decided I’d share here too.
    —————

    I’ve been doing GOTV in PA. the GOTV did 660,000 visits in one day Saturday.  There were times during the day that we did 2000 visits a minute. In my small group today we did 130 sections of turf (20-50 voters each) by 157 volunteers. I’ve done various GOTV or voter protection activities since 2004. I’ve never seen anything like it. I don’t know if we’ll win PA but I’m confident that the Harris-Walz ground game here is far outstripping their counterparts.

  6. 6.

    gkoutnik

    The “making history together” drawing reminds me of Election Day, 2016; as I was going in to the voting hall, a mother and daughter – she was young enough to ride in Mom’s arms – were going out, smiling.  Both had “I Voted” stickers.  I remember thinking, “Yeah, and keep going, all the way up to Seneca Falls, and leave those stickers on Susan B. Anthony’s gravestone, with all the hundreds already there.  Then later tonight we’ll all go up and have an awesome ‘thank you’ party there.”

    Of all the endless reasons for me to hate TFG, that one – the bitter disappointment of that mother and daughter, and the lesson they learned – keeps rising to the surface.  That little girl can’t vote yet, but next time, probably.   All that I’ve done to help win this election has been for that girl, and her mother.  Oh, and my 5 year old granddaughter.  They deserve the world we want for them.

  7. 7.

    Chet Murthy

    I have to say, knowing that you’re all as worried as I am, is a comfort.  I also am feeling optimism, and somewhat looking forward to Tuesday.  I asked a friend if he’d like to join me to watch the returns at a bar, and he said “sure, if it looks like it’ll be a blowout for Blue”.  So maybe we’ll do that.  Neither of us want to sit in a bar and fret though.

  8. 8.

    Captain C

    Just voted today, at the same place I would vote on Election Day (a high school 4 blocks from me).  Got a couple nice stickers, and of course cast my vote for the good guys (as seen by us Jackals, of course).  Figured I’d avoid trying to do it before my late shift on Tuesday; looked it up at 4:30 and saw they were closing at 5, so made it just under the wire.  It was pretty full, given that the NYC Marathon goes right by and was today; at any given time over half the 10 or so privacy booths were occupied.

  9. 9.

    tobie

    @caphilldcne: Don’t sell yourself short! I read on Mastodon that volunteers knocked on over 800,000 doors in the Keystone State on Saturday. Not too shabby.

    On Saturday alone, the Harris campaign:

    * Knocked 807,000 doors in Pennsylvania

    * Made 940,000 calls and knocked 215,000 doors in Wisconsin

    * Made 721,000 phone calls and knocked 256,000 doors in Michigan

  10. 10.

    HumboldtBlue

    @caphilldcne: ​ 

    I’ve been doing GOTV in PA. the GOTV did 660,000 visits in one day Saturday. There were times during the day that we did 2000 visits a minute. In my small group today we did 130 sections of turf (20-50 voters each) by 157 volunteers. I’ve done various GOTV or voter protection activities since 2004. I’ve never seen anything like it. I don’t know if we’ll win PA but I’m confident that the Harris-Walz ground game here is far outstripping their counterparts.

    That is extraordinary. Wow.

    Just, wow.

  13. 13.

    df

    You know, I’m an atheist, but I spent many years in a lovely choir. Only once or twice (to my chagrin) did we sing one of my favorite hymns, “It Is Well with My Soul”. The text was written by Horatio Spafford, after a ship taking his wife and four daughters to England, the SS Ville du Havre, collided with another vessel and sank. Anna Spafford sent a rather famous, ominous telegram back: “Saved alone.” Horatio wrote the text as his ship passed by the spot where the SS Ville du Havre sank.

    When peace like a river, attendeth my way,
    When sorrows like sea billows roll;
    Whatever my lot, Thou hast taught me to say,
    It is well, it is well, with my soul.

    Friends, we have done our very best. I am nauseously optimistic, but come what may, I know we are prepared to face Tuesday with the same poise, grace, and courage that Kamala Harris has shown during this campaign. And it is well with my soul.

  15. 15.

    scott (the otherone)

    @gkoutnik: My oldest two daughters were both so exited to be able to cast their first votes for president for Hilary Clinton, so pleased that they were going to be able to play a small role in electing the first woman president. Just how crushed they were isn’t something I’m likely to ever get over.

  16. 16.

    BR

    David Sirota needs to crawl back under a rock and stay there. Never want to hear from that guy ever again. Though the fact that he isn’t trying to dunk on Harris right now is a sign that he’s trying to get on the winning team.

  18. 18.

    West of the Rockies

    Is anyone else really feeling this astounding moment of history in which we find ourselves?  We’re going to kick fascism in the ass and elect our first woman president!  This will have stunning, worldwide impact.

  19. 19.

    Kent

    @BR:David Sirota needs to crawl back under a rock and stay there. Never want to hear from that guy ever again. Though the fact that he isn’t trying to dunk on Harris right now is a sign that he’s trying to get on the winning team.

    What did I miss?  Why are we mad at Sirota?  Because of his Sandernista days? Or something else?

  20. 20.

    Redshift

    I did two shifts of door-knocking here in NoVa with my friend who has come in from Indiana to volunteer. Had a pretty decent number of people who opened the door, and they all either had already voted (and the update hadn’t caught up to us yet) or were definitely voting on Tuesday. The list wasn’t all confirmed supporters; there were a few houses where the people had moved, so the must not have been contacted before. Only walked 3.5 miles today; yesterday I did one shift in a neighborhood with bigger yards and walked four miles.

    The mood seems good everywhere, and I’m doing my best to leave it all on the field! Action is the antidote to anxiety!

  22. 22.

    kalakal

    Seeing the chasm in enthusiasm between the Harris and TFG campaigns and their supporters soothes. Here’s TFG claiming to a half full hall that he has the biggest crowds in world history. He sounds old and tired, the crowd is walking out. So low energy. So boring Compare to any Dem rally

    Trump drones on

  24. 24.

    Urza

    I expect the final call and legal shenanigans to take awhile, but I look forward to 2025 when we can talk about new things and not the orange mic blowjob queen and couch molester.  I don’t know what those new things will be but I’m hopeful its about shoring up democracy and womens and minority rights for the long term before moving on to actually building and growing again.

  26. 26.

    caphilldcne

     

     

    @tobie: either way it’s been amazing. Couldn’t be more thankful for all the volunteers. And it’s alleviated my anxiety because I’m too busy to be anxious.

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    @kalakal: I find it a little funny that Tmurp loved doing the “power moves” of showing up late and making CNN and the other networks wait for him (and – purely coincidentally – taking air time away from HRC’s events), but now it’s biting him in the butt.

    Real people who go to his rallies don’t have infinite time to wait for him.  They have lives that they have to upend to see him, and their time is booked.  If he’s two hours late, we’ll, they’re going to leave.

    Real people are more powerful than billion dollar conglomerates and MotUs in that respect.

    It must crush that fragile ego of his, that little people have better things to do…

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  29. 29.

    persistentillusion

    @BR:

    He and his pest wife have been a scar on the Rocky Mountain West for longer than I want to remember. Off to both of them!

  32. 32.

    KatKapCC

    Ah, but that clip doesn’t include my favorite line of that movie, one of the best lines in any movie:

    Annie: “And if you experienced even a little bit of the sixties, you would feel the same way, too.”

    Bitchy Lady: [huffy] “I experienced the sixties.”

    Annie: “No, I think you had two fifties and moved right on into the seventies.”

  34. 34.

    Death Panel Truck

    @Timill: I’ve got about four and a half grams of Obama Kush from the pot store down the street. Ought to get me thru Tuesday. 😎

  35. 35.

    cain

    I will say this, if we lose it won’t be because we didn’t 100% put in the work. The outreach has been phenomenal. But if this country wants to self-immolate then so be it. As they say, sometimes the tree of liberty needs to watered with the blood of patriots.

    But I know that’s not what is going to happen. Instead, we are going to see something extraordinary. We’re going to win decisively, and we are going to take back the House, keep the Senate, and we’re going to start fixing all the holes in our democracy. We’re going to make abortion a fundamental right. We’re going to earn the votes from women and do the right thing.

  39. 39.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

    At Dump’s depressed, low energy rally today, in Georgia, people in the audience fell asleep.  No joke.

  40. 40.

    Splitting Image

    @Another Scott:

    “Florida: Harris + 3.7”

    That would be sweet!

    Thanks for the pointer.

    If Harris manages to win Florida, there is a good chance Rick Scott will go down with Trump. Two very good outcomes in one night.

  41. 41.

    Carlo Graziani

    @kalakal: I try to Curb My Own Enthusiasm, because I am too prone to sunny outlooks that I shouldn’t try to defend.

    That said, I feel that the trick that may ultimately be judged to worked best for the Harris campaign was putting Trump’s calamitous late-campaign appearances front and center, through ads, “closing argument” speeches, etc.

    The reason, IMO is not so much to persuade the unpersuadeds, as to discourage voting by the devoted MAGAhats, by exposing them to the greatest extent possible to the Loser Stench emanating from every new Trump video like cartoon stink rays.

    The unspoken part of the wisdom of GOTV is suppressing your opponent’s vote. And with the kind of couch-bound chronic non-voter that Trump has succeeded in energizing since 2016, duty to vote is very much bound up with winner energy. Letting them have facefuls of Stink straight from the central source is a great way to get some critical fraction of them to find better uses for their time than voting, come Tuesday.

  43. 43.

    wjca

    @Maxim: This is an interesting article: The Blowout No One Sees Coming

    I hope they’re right.

    @SpaceUnit: The crayon markings on the map up top are quite reassuring.  We got this.

    OK, I understand that I’m a nobody.  Which, perhaps, is why I do see this coming.  Harris: 429, Trump: 99, TBD: (Missouri) 16.

    Play your own game on the 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map.  Way too much fun!

  45. 45.

    Aussie Sheila

    @cain:

    This. The energy and work that has gone into this campaign has been absolutely extraordinary. I believe it will be a good result.

    But after this, there needs to be some tough talking about how hard it is to vote in gerrymandered states. The US and the rest of the world actually, simply can’t deal with a polity that permits a bunch of reactionary shitheads in bumfuck US to suppress the vote of people they don’t like.

    It’s a democratic travesty and is approaching the levels of embarrassment that the US rightly suffered in the 1950s and 60s at its refusal to grant African Americans the same voting and social rights as the rest of the place.
    I wonder if this time the Dems might just actually override the filibuster to ensure some form of national ‘right to vote’ Act?
    Assuming they win the Senate of course.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @mrmoshpotato:

    The Con’s went full culture war. New Brunswick voters decimated them in favour of the Liberals and the first female Premier,

    and New Brunswick people are very, very conservative.

    And the con’s were backed to the hilt by the Irving’s and the McCain’s, who basically own 90% of the Province.

  49. 49.

    NotMax

    @wjca

    NOT a prediction, more like a best case scenario: 319D -219.R

    Senate at 50-50 would be dicey but okay. Wildly optimistic 52-48 would be ecstasy.

    As for the House, a D result of anywhere from 223 to 227 would make this old fogey extremely pleased.

    “Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product.”
    — Eleanor Roosevelt
    ;)

  51. 51.

    KatKapCC

    @NotMax: Dumbass doesn’t understand that electioneering of any kind is prohibited in or near polling places in probably most or even all of the country.

  52. 52.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

    @prostratedragon: Looney tunes.

    In Georgia he said we’re in the middle of a depression, that it’s 1929 all over again,   He actually says this.  Right, who you gonna believe  Dump or the Dow Jones industrial average.

    At another point, he said immigrants are bringing “military grade weapons across the border and in some cases above military grade weapons”.  WTF?  What’s above military grade weapons? Lightsabers?

  55. 55.

    SectionH

    This video of Tim Walz with We Walk Dogs is so happy-making it’s… yeah. I randomly got it showing up on Youtube yesterday, and what-the-helled, and loved it. To the point that I made Mr S watch it tonight.

    tl;dr  Tim and Scout at the Dog Park. Being interviewed and [SPOILERS]. It’s 17 minutes, but even Mr S  laughed and loved it.

  58. 58.

    tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)

    @Canadian Shield: Thanks for sharing this. It was definitely worth watching. I like him more and more as I see him and can only applaud MVP for selecting him as her running mate.

  59. 59.

    VeniceRiley

    I’ve still got a case of the insomnia. It’s unusual for me, but I expect it to cure itself by Wednesday night.

    We really do need to get rid of the electoral college. It distorts not only the swing states, but every other state plus the down ballot.

  60. 60.

    ColoradoGuy

    One of the best things about abolishing the Electoral College would be removing “swing states”, with their 10,000 to 20,000 vote margins, from the picture. Imagine. No more swing states, ever.

  61. 61.

    Aussie Sheila

    @ColoradoGuy:

    That would be good. But it would take a Constitutional amendment and I don’t  see that happening any time soon. How about ensuring a federal voting rights act that ensures the same access to polling places for all US citizens, regardless of their geographical location?
    I read today about polling lines in Ohio.

    It’s infuriating and outrageous.

    I can’t stand voter suppression.

  63. 63.

    Anoniminous

    @Maxim:

    Also need to add since Dobbs pollsters have been under-predicting Democratic vote by a minimum of 4%.  A big reason is they are constructing their polling screens from pre-Dobbs data essentially ‘male-washing’ that decision.

  65. 65.

    Jesse

    Having some interesting discussions with a normier in the family. She’s for Kamala but isn’t partisan. All she sees is the polls in the last few weeks apparently moving in Trump’s favor. She thinks he’s going to win. I tell her that there are plenty of indicators showing things in Kamala’s favor. She doesn’t see those, and  thinks I’m just in a bubble, the same epistemological bubble that made me predict, in 2016, that HRC would win handily. I basically have no response to this. I call it doomerism, she calls it being realistic.

  66. 66.

    Jay

    @Jesse:

    Call her, multiple times from an “unknown number” phone.

    Then let her know that you called her from an “unknown number” phone, yesterday, multiple times, but she didn’t pick up.

    Then ask her how she can trust the polls,

  68. 68.

    Jesse

    @Jay: that’s a good one, thanks!

    We need to have a reckoning about these polls. I wonder if we need a different understanding of them. Or new techniques that complement (or even largely replace) current approaches. I’m thinking of observational data like we’ve talked about many, many times here, such as early voting patterns, attendance at various events (rallies, local county volunteer signups, etc. etc. etc.) that gives us some insight that can meaningfully complement polls.

    tldr how do we unskew the polls without just being “unkew the polls”

  69. 69.

    sab

    @Aussie Sheila: At this stage Ohio voting lines are at least non-discriminatory. There is one early voting place per county, and only two early voting weekends. So everyone has to stand in the same lines. Urban counties do worse because more people per voting site.

    The discrimination kicks in on actual voting day Tuesday Nov. 5, when the location and size of polling places varies a lot. Parking varies a lot. How close the voting location is to your house varies a lot. Whether your voting place has changed since the last election varies a lot. Things have gotten a lot worse in the twenty-five years since I moved back to Ohio.

  74. 74.

    Aussie Sheila

    @sab:

    You have made my point for me. Polling places should be determined on the basis of the population in each county, irrespective of its geography. Of course an urban area with a million people should have more polling places than bumfuck county with 20,000 voters. It’s simply outrageous. I’ve never spent more than 30 minutes in line to vote, and I live in a densely populated urban area.

    Each electorate here has roughly the same population with a plus or minus 10% tolerance, and the number of polling places tracks the number of voters in each sub division.

  75. 75.

    sab

    @Aussie Sheila: Ohio lines are nothing bad like other states. Florida has lines that take four or five hours. Ohio doesn’t have that. That is largely because Ohio law (constitution?) mandates that the county board of election has equal number of members from both parties. Sec of  State settles any tie. So one party cannot dominate the boards of election. If things are really screwed up in any one county it is the fault of the local board, not the party controlling the state.

  76. 76.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Oh that’s funny, over at KOS they are talking about other pollsters are now revamping their polls after that Selzer Iowa polls. So more proof at polls are nothing more than the opinion of the polling companies doing them and their is nothing scientific about them.

  77. 77.

    sab

    @Aussie Sheila: I agree with you on that ( based on population) but I would really be hesitant to allow our current state government anywhere near correcting the problem.

    When I first voted in 1972, all voting was only on election day, unless you had a very good reason for an absentee ballot. And your signature on your absentee ballot had to be notarized. So things are easier now.

  78. 78.

    Jay

    @Ksmiami:

    Doom, doom, doom,……….

    PA “polls” including all the garbage ReThug ones has Dolt 45 at +0.3 in the aggregators.

    Median  poll accuracy, “claimed” is +6, -6,

    Chill out. The only poll that matters is the vote.

  79. 79.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Maxim: this bit from that article

    He was right. In 2022, we saw a similar pattern with the Republican “Red Wave,” where skewed polls inflated the averages. Now, Democratic polling groups may be playing the same game, keeping their internal polls with bullish numbers under wraps to keep the race appearing as close as possible and their voters engaged.

    Averages like those from 538 and RCP try to counter these biases by minimizing outliers and accounting for partisan effects. However, the problem is that every publicly released poll is biased. No one is releasing a $25,000–$80,000 poll out of the goodness of their heart. When a campaign releases a poll, it’s not to inform the public; it’s to shape public perception in favor of their candidate or agenda. No campaign is going to openly tell a reporter, “We’re in big trouble.” They know media outlets love polls because they lend credibility, allowing the media to say, “We’ve got the real story.” This creates an interdependent relationship between campaigns, pollsters, and the media.

    Independent polling groups are not immune either. Many prefer to be wrong with the crowd rather than risk standing as outliers, so they adjust their numbers and reinforce the faulty averages.

  80. 80.

    Ksmiami

    @Jay: it’s not just polls, lots of Trump signs in suburban PA plus MI feeling like it’s moving away. I guess I’ll start preparing.

  82. 82.

    sab

    @Ksmiami: Signs mean nothing except that the sign poster feels strongly and also feels safe posting it.

    I think we are going to win, but no way would I let the handful of Trumpsters in my neighborhood know how I vote.

    ETA Trumpsters feel safe posting signs because our side aren’t homicidal assholes and the Trumpsters know that.

  83. 83.

    Gloria DryGarden

    @Aussie Sheila: we don’t like voter suppression here either. I think most everyone on BJ is cranky about it. We need to get the house and the senate in our corner, to vote on it.

    You know what’s been happening instead..

  85. 85.

    sab

    @sab: We have never had a Secretary of State as idiotic as Frank LaRose, and hopefully we will never will again. And he was a hometown boy. Beyond embarrassing for us locally.

    Maybe we should require a law degree.

    ETA: LaRose is from a family of booze distributers and his college degree is in marketing and poli sci. He doesn’t actually know much law, which is most of what a Sec of State deals with.

  86. 86.

    Gloria DryGarden

    @Ksmiami: that’s a stark way to put it, and might motivate folks to push harder to ge5 rid of EC.
    meanwhile, a reminder of what someone else said here,

    if we lose, we can be miserable then. Meanwhile try to stay upbeat and positive. My addition: see it unfolding , imagine it going our way:    with Dem wins, top down.

    there is no need to incite more readers to extra anxiety. It’s already pretty intense for most of us, but no need to amplify it. Make your plan, and work to help GOTV.

    i might need some of opie jean’s  famous pie

  88. 88.

    sab

    @Aussie Sheila: I hope you keep posting to remind us that American voting procedures are not optimal (but are instead a legacy of Jim Crow.)

    American exceptionalism has flaws. First Democracy (if we ignore Iceland) but first isn’t always best. I personally am not an early adaptor.

  89. 89.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

    @Ksmiami:

    Well, I don’t have anything to say, you’ve done the best you could. You really have, the best you could. You can’t expect to win ’em all. But, I want to tell you something I’ve kept to myself through these years. I was in the war myself, medical corps. I was on late duty one night when they brought in a badly wounded pilot from one of the raids. He could barely talk. He looked at me and said, “The odds were against us up there, but we went in anyway, I’m glad the Captain made the right decision.” The pilot’s name was George Zipp.

    The last thing he said to me, “Doc,” he said, “some time when the crew is up against it, and the breaks are beating the boys, tell them to get out there and give it all they got and win just one for the Zipper. I don’t know where I’ll be then, Doc,” he said, “but I won’t smell too good, that’s for sure.”

  90. 90.

    Princess

    @Jesse: We can’t. Either they get a random sample and they’re a decent snapshot, or they’re not. But what we can do is decouple them from political reporting to a greater degree. Right now it feels like 80% of political reporting is poll driven. And on Wednesday, no matter if Harris wins 54-46 or Trump wins 54-46, each of which would be an electoral college blowout, Silver and RCP and 538 are going to claim they predicted it because each result is in the margin of error. Polls aren’t useful; trends are so this time everyone is covering their asses to flatten their results so we see no trends and everyone can claim they were right.

  94. 94.

    MobiusKlein

    @Baud: ​

    You’re both in your own bubbles. No one knows, and all predictions are worthless.

    Including this prediction.

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