TODAY
Some of the news is concerning today: Fencing was erected at the White House and the VP residence as D.C. braces for unrest. But we should not face this moment with fear. This is a moment for courage, not alarmism. The fact that our government is preparing for a storm is good news, much better than in 2020 when they were taken by surprise.
This is a good day to be a smart, careful consumer of news and information and to be a voice of reason for those around you. Avoid the drama-la. Are there some scary possibilities out there? Of course there are, but they’re unlikely to materialize, and if they do, we’ll take them as we find them. Make sure you stick to news you can trust and critically examine the rest.
On Saturday, the FBI issued a statement advising the public that they were aware of two fake videos being circulated on social media. One involved a fake claim the FBI had determined three groups were committing ballot fraud. The second involved Kamala Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff.
Statement from the FBI regarding two videos falsely claiming to from the the FBI relating to election security.
NBC News reported that Russia was behind a fake video claiming Haitian immigrants voted illegally in Georgia. It looks like Putin’s government and Trump’s campaign are both involved in efforts to undercut Americans’ confidence in our elections. That’s something we know and have known for so long that we don’t always pay the attention that we should to it.
But it’s Donald Trump who has created this crisis of confidence in our elections—it did not exist before him, and he continues to fan the flames. The half-truths and lies are so pervasive that people beyond his base may have doubts too. That is not the conduct of someone who belongs in the White House. Let’s make sure we say that today to encourage people to vote for democracy tomorrow. And let’s avoid the speculation and the hype.
This is good advice not just for today, but for whatever period of time it takes for the election to be resolved.
I am so glad that we have a community here – whatever comes our way, joyful or scary, we will face it together. Except for the people we lost during the great not-so-civil war in July. I hope those folks come back.
Oh, and a bit of information from Philly. F around and find uut.
Philly being Philly.
“F around and find out”
— Jack E. Smith ⚖️ (@7Veritas4) November 4, 2024
I could watch that on repeat. You might have to pull me away to do things like eat, and shower.
Open thread.
Nelle
fyi – I’m on a Zoom with Ann Selzer, whose polling shows that Harris is up by 3 in Iowa.
WaterGirl
@Nelle: oooh, interesting! tell us more. :-)
dmsilev
@Nelle: If, as we all hope, she’s right, she will be a sure-in for the Pollster of the Decade award for calling that one.
Anonymous At Work
F Around and Find Out is what Elmo had his lawyer do in Philly too. The “lottery” wasn’t an actual lottery but purposefully selected persons who signed a contract with America PAC (and presumably an NDA) in return for the money. Candidates chosen based on “narrative appeal” and purposefully on location. That does NOT help Elmo since creating a FAKE lottery is a bigger no-no than an unsanctioned one.
Laws against lotteries have two purposes: prevent numbers-running/illegal gambling (most places) and prevent non-Baptists from having fun (in the South). This goes against #1 and may (if Georgia gets involved as is its option) violate #2 as well. Georgia’s laws on lotteries are completely insane, so there’s no way Elmo even tried to comply with them.
Dangerman
We are going to have to deprogram the Fuckers. It will take decades.
ETA: I want FAFO to get to Vlad, too. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. How? No idea.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@dmsilev:
Apparently, Selzer has had a very good track record over the past 10-15 years polling elections; she’s only missed once, and it was the gubernatorial Iowa race one year. If she’s even close to correct and Iowa is competitive, it opens up a lot of possibilities. 🤞
Butch
I’m not underestimating the chance for unrest (that’s why we’re bowling early tomorrow – we’re on a Tuesday night league – because we’re not going to leave our rural home unattended on Election Night) but I’m also a little tired of all the posts (not here on Balloon Juice, though) I’ve seen over the last few days telling me to wet my pants and hide under the bed. They want a fight they’ll get it.
Chet Murthy
During TCFG’s reign of error, Joyce Alene Vance and Barb McQuade were my regular dose of Xanax. I always hoped one or both would run for elective office, but I guess they’ve both done their service as US Attorneys.
Melancholy Jaques
We keep saying it’s Trump, but it’s really the whole Republican party, the billionaires who finance it, and the “Christian” churches who are its auxiliaries.
HumboldtBlue
@Dangerman:
Yup, and even then, there will always be the 27 percent cohort who will never change or deprogram.
KatKapCC
As far as unrest and fuckery, the thing is, Trump will have far fewer people willing to do that crap for him this time. People saw a bunch of them go to jail for him, lose their jobs, get divorced, etc. I would bet a lot of folks would say “hell no” this time around, even if they’re pissed he lost.
Suzanne
I am going to try to go see Harris this evening at the Carrie Furnaces. We’ll see if I get in.
Shalimar
I’m not saying our post 9/11 surveillance society is a good thing, but it certainly makes it much easier to track down those who commit isolated fuckery crimes. And makes it harder for Trump supporters to coordinate any post-election fuckery.
BritinChicago
@Butch: “They want a fight they’ll get it.” Best leave it to the professionals. Uncle Joe is in the White House, thank goodness. If the National Guard is needed, they’ll be summoned (probably they’ll be on stand-by in various places). A mob against trained and disciplined troops is no contest.
john b
JD’s mom, I presume /s
hrprogressive
@Dangerman:
I sadly think most of them will have to “exit the electorate” before any meaningful changes occur in that space.
Too many of them are irreparably harmed. They will take it with them when they shuffle off this mortal coil.
Hopefully their progeny doesn’t carry it forward, is all.
Gin & Tonic
In the giving-credit-where-due department, that is based on research by Microsoft, who, as I have pointed out a couple of times, are head and shoulders above every other tech company in the resources they devote to this and the results they produce.
Butch
@KatKapCC: I feel like a lot of the steam has gone out of the Trump supporters. In 2020 there were almost weekly parades of side by sides on our rural road bearing Trump flags. This year we’ve seen one, over Labor Day. I think at least some have realized that Trump won’t come to their defense, and a lot of the other noisiest ones can’t walk from their car to Wal-Mart without stopping for breath.
👻David 🎃Booooooo🎃 Koch💀
Baud
I wouldn’t have led with “concerning.” Unfortunate, but necessary after Jan 6. Not a reason to be concerned, just like going through a metal detector at an airport is not concerning.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: I would be interested in hearing more about what they are doing in that space. Enough info for a guest post?
fancycwabs
I did NOT have “an OnlyFans masturbation model’s pet squirrel becomes the unofficial mascot of the Republican presidential candidate” on my 2024 bingo card.
Nelle
Bringing this up from the last thread:
Just got off of an hour Zoom with Ann Selzer, who talked a bit about her methodology. If I understood accurately, she says that she does not weight her polls for past voting and behavior. If that is accurate, I find that oddly encouraging for a way to go into election day. As opposed to the grievance culture that animates MAGA, the future can shed some of the past. It doesn’t have to be determinative.
My neighbor ran over to listen, too. We decided that, if Iowa is truly a swing state, we did it by ourselves, without national attention and spending. I’m new enough here not to have a huge circle of acquaintances, but most of those I know have been door knocking, post carding, texting.
And it isn’t that long since it was a more rational place. Now, if we can get rid of some of the worst – our attorney general and our governor. Well, and our senators. That would be fine if they wafted off into some bubble land.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
It’s somewhat heretical, but I kind of like Microsoft. They do some things that are side eye worthy, but I think a lot of their work is interesting.
Marcopolo
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Selzer has had a few other misses (she had Kerry winning IA in ‘04 & a miss in one of the prez primaries), but she’s just been the most accurate pollster of IA period over the past 2 decades. The Kerry miss was just a smidge outside the MOE.
The thing I appreciate about her is 1) she doesn’t start w/ any priors—just goes where the data takes her; 2) she is fearless—not worried about being wrong and as a result of 1 & 2 has caught voter trends ahead of others. She was the first pollster to see IA shifting substantially toward Rs in 2014, which is basically when IA stop being viewed as a swing state. Her final poll in ‘16 showed Clinton losing to Trump by a larger margin than most expected & was a bit of a canary in the coal mine for how Hillary did in the midwestern battleground states.
Her final poll this year says women (all but especially older women) are crushing it for Harris and that Harris is also slightly winning all voters 60+ (including men by iir +2).
If she is catching that movement accurately (and you know her poll is based on about 800 respondents so 🤷♀️) and that movement is happening in other states then Trump is cooked. I am hopeful.
Last but not least Selzer is humble about her record. Really like her—even when I don’t like the results of her polls.
KatKapCC
@Butch: That’s why they keep streaming out of his rallies early.
John S.
@Baud:
They also seem to attract some very interesting employees.
I was driving through Redmond a few weeks back and saw a laid off Microsoft worker panhandling on the side of the road who had a QR code on his sign for digital donations.
That’s innovation!
Elizabelle
Knocking doors. Voters telling me we are going to win. We will!
I am hopeful we will know sooner rather than later. Overwhelm the bad.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Nice. You go, girl.
WaterGirl
@fancycwabs: I have no idea what you are talking about. Care to share?
Chet Murthy
@Baud: They certainly executed the transition to the Internet and then cloud with skill and efficiency. Unlike my former employer (IBM) who fucked that up big time.
HumboldtBlue
Chet Murthy
@WaterGirl: You asked: https://medium.com/sexstories/the-strange-story-of-peanut-the-squirrel-a2c15be4cc89
ETA: Just so it’s clear, I got there via Atrios. I didn’t go -looking- for such content. Just so it’s clear.
Nelle
They just released the recording of the Zoom call. Art Cullen is the editor of the Storm Lake, Iowa paper. He’s won a Pulitzer.
Here it is: https://okobojiwriters.substack.com/p/j-ann-selzer-has-political-junkies?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=33s0n&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
hueyplong
@WaterGirl: I think I do. The GOPers are trying to make a big deal out of the fact that some NYC resident who adopted a wild squirrel saw it seized and euthanized.
fancycwabs
@WaterGirl: I wish I had a better source than the New York Post, but until I do…
https://nypost.com/2024/11/03/us-news/who-ratted-out-pnut-the-squirrel-owners-have-their-theory-and-its-a-rich-one
Related:
https://nypost.com/2024/11/04/us-news/jd-vance-trump-is-fired-up-over-death-of-pnut-the-elon-musk-of-squirrels/
Chet Murthy
@hueyplong: Apparently it seems pretty reasonable to infer that he’s a gay porn star, and the squirrel was part of his bit. So the G(r)OPers have gone in on defending a gay porn actor!
Rusty
@Melancholy Jaques: Long before Trump arrived on the scene, an extremely conservative legal colleague in the early 2000’s explained to me how every presidential election from Kennedy on, where the Democrat won, had been stolen. He was very plugged into the hard core right, down to believing Vince Foster was killed by the Clinton’s. The ground for Stop the Steal was very fertile and watered well before Trump, there was a reason it so easily ignited once Trymp lit the flame. Gingrich really amplified this with his position that all Democrats were liars. Taking away Trump won’t solve this problem.
KatKapCC
@Chet Murthy:
………sure, why not.
Kosh III
We are going to have to deprogram the Fuckers. It will take decades.
The good angel on my should says be loving, supporting and give them all the therapy they need.
The bad angel says “hang “em high!”
I will listen to the good one but…….
Kosh III
The stolen elections were 1968 when Nixon colluded with North Vietnam to delay the peace talks and if he won he would be easy to work with.
1980 when Raygun colluded with Iran to keep the hostages. If he won he’d play nice: see Iran-Contra.
Treason both time and covered up both times.
Don’t even start me on 2000.
narya
@hueyplong: And it turns out that, IIUC, (1) the guy was using the squirrel to send people to his OnlyFans page, (2) there was also a raccoon involved, and (3) the squirrel bit someone. Having had a relative die of rabies, if everyone except the wildlife comes out of this alive and healthy it’s a win.
More generally, there was an 8-part series on Krasner on PBS a few years ago; very interesting. As an ex-resident (and having grown up close enough to there to have had the TV stations be from Philadelphia), hearing the accents always warms my heart.
eclare
@Nelle:
She was on MJ this morning.
WaterGirl
@fancycwabs: Thank you!
Even though it makes me want to bang my head against a wall. They have lost their minds.
Lapassionara
WaterGirl, I want to thank you for all the many ways you have helped us be productive citizens this election season and also how you have kept us focused on the positive. All of the frontpagers here play an important role, but you have managed to find and promote some key grass roots voting rights groups that may well be the basis for a solid Dem election victory.
We are lucky to have you here.
Baud
@Rusty:
On a positive note, the level of awareness about what Republicans are all about is higher than I can ever remember. Hopefully, we’ll start to push back with some force going forward.
Chris Johnson
I love it. F around and find out.
My take on the MAGAs is, they can go around thinking what they like. Thoughts are free. Actions aren’t, and having seen what that shit leads to, we’re going to come down on them like a ton of bricks when they go and do crimes.
As they will. As they do. Sometimes, enticed by Feds, and busted before they even get to act. If they get entrapped because they so desperately wanted to F around, that is on them.
I’m hoping they implode in a cloud of total paranoia and fail to do anything too striking. I know Russia’s people would love to entrap them too and make ’em little soldiers of the would-be civil war, but Russia is busy losing. It’s not 2016, we can see what’s going on and there’s some understanding of the situation now.
These people had BEST hope they get entrapped by the Feds. It’s safer. They can rot in jail and get reasonable treatment, maybe find something better to do with their lives. Wouldn’t be hard.
jonas
@hueyplong: Color me surprised that they’re making hay out of this. I thought MAGA thought it was cool when you shoot defenseless animals and shit. Shows how “tough” you can be.
Raven
@Butch: Fuckin A
narya
@Baud: Yeah, I’ve been glad to see that as well. And I suspect that DOJ has done a bunch of stuff of which we are not aware, and that many states and localities have prepared too.
fancycwabs
@WaterGirl: Theres an Igor Stravinsky level of cognitive dissonance that Republican voters seem to manage. Like straight up Firebird levels of dissonance.
Anonymous At Work
@Marcopolo: Seems like her sample is per se representative so she might not need to “model.” The question would become whether her sample had the numbers/depth to stand-in for state as a whole.
In an age where most people don’t have the landlines to be part of valid polls, using her example on a larger scale might prove impossible for the multiple instant polls used by anyone with Excel and a phone list. Hopefully that means the death of fly-by-night pollsters more than anything.
frosty
@Suzanne: Good luck! I saw her on a Jumbotron in DC; not a chance of seeing a tiny little person-shaped object on a stage far away.
gvg
@Melancholy Jaques: It started long before Trump. It was a republican “thing” as a party line for at least 15 years before that. They used to goose turnout. I am pretty sure it was a Fox thing and its imitators too.
The other thing that was building was the completely no common sense or reality check conspiracy theories combined with every other republican opinion. Add on volcanic tempers when anyone tells them that just is not the way things really work. He is worse than most of the mean little fruit loops he leads for that. The lunatics are running the asylum.
It’s not that our side doesn’t have some unfortunately silly people, it’s that we don’t let them lead or do much of anything. And we don’t have a way to profit off encouraging them which I think is important in keeping us from making that mistake.
Rocks
Actually, I find the idea of fencing around the White House very comforting. The best way to stop trouble is not let it get started in the first place.
It reminds me of Atlanta airport. Back in the early 2000s I had to go through there a couple dozen times a year on business. TSA had erected a big glass display cases showing the insane variety of things they had confiscated from people and their carry on luggage. My favorite was on a pedestal in the place of honor right in the hear of the display, and it was…wait for it…a chain saw! A-mazing!
cain
That video is exactly what disaffected trump supporters need to hear. Fuck around and find out indeed.
Found out my wife did have her ballot counted despite sending one in. But apparently they had sent another one already as a replacement. The nice lady at at the SoS insisted to stay on the line while I checked my mailbox for my ballot. Just awesome.
I love my state for things like this. I could tell she was a fellow traveler.
jonas
Ok, this is hilarious. So Musk’s defense in the PA case where he’s being accused of running an illegal numbers racket with his “voter sweepstakes” is that it was never a game of chance — the “winners” were in fact pre-selected to be “paid spokespeople” for the Trump/Vance campaign, not random winners of a cash prize. Of course that was never disclosed anywhere and Musk and his people are clearly just pulling it out of their asses. I’m sure the judge was impressed.
Isn’t this basically saying your sidewalk three-card Monty scam wasn’t really a scam because none of the cards were ever going to be a winner?
HumboldtBlue
@Lapassionara:
Hear, Hear!
Nelle
@Lapassionara: Times one million. WaterGirl is a hero.
Harrison Wesley
@jonas: A cunning plan!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Lapassionara:
Absolutely 💯!
fancycwabs
@jonas: The class-action lawsuit about this is gonna be LIT.
Baud
@Nelle:
Nominated!
karen marie
For the first time in the 12 years I’ve lived in Arizona, I got door-knockers today! And you’ll never guess whose campaign they support! That’s right! Harris-Walz for the Win!
I was absolutely delighted. One of the women said she has done this for three presidential election cycles.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Marcopolo:
Thanks for the additional context. I will say it’s encouraging other polls also seem to be capturing this movement at the same time. We’ll see 🤞
HumboldtBlue
And now for something completely different.
Divers capture a 7.2 earthquake while underwater.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@HumboldtBlue:
Wow, that was so cool, you could hear the shaking underwater
oldgold
@Nelle:
“Art Cullen is the editor of the Storm Lake, Iowa paper. He’s won a Pulitzer.”
I played a big role in this.
Ken
Brilliant. What’s next? Denying he was trying to create a lottery in a way that suggests mail fraud?
(Because, anecdotally, I understand that you do not want the postal inspectors going after you.)
Anonymous At Work
@jonas: Yeah, that’s my read. False advertising, fraud, theft of personal information, etc. Illegal lotteries aka “numbers running” is a crime so many different ways. Elmo is daring the Philly DA to enforce it.
And it may be that the laws only hold America PAC liable and Elmo agrees and shutters the entity. Or, Elmo as teh entity’s primary sponsor and spokesman gets in trouble. He’s just daring a Harris administration to revoke his security clearance.
Ken
@hueyplong: One comment I saw about that squirrel: “County health departments do not f*ck around with rabies.”
Gin & Tonic
@KatKapCC: Rule 34 is undefeated.
Chris
@Melancholy Jaques:
The problem we’ve arrived at is that the components of the modern Republican Party are largely those same parts of society that have been given a mulligan on their chronic refusal to follow the rules for decades, if not all of history. Namely the rich, the conservative churches, the police, including to quite an extent the federal security state, and finally now, frankly, organized crime. And the extent to which they’re allowed to ignore the rules has been getting consistently worse for several decades now.
Not surprisingly, all of these people, especially now that they’re all unified together in one party, have decided that elections are just another one of those bizarre rules that they should be allowed to ignore, and at the very least certainly shouldn’t be penalized for breaking.
Ken
I would bet some of them don’t even need the phone list.
Chris Johnson
@jonas: Oh my God. I called that and was certain that’s what it was, and I think I even mentioned that it was clearly confederates playing the role of ‘winners’, and I remember posting something to that effect somewhere, but I would never have guessed the crazy fuck would ADMIT it.
Nelle
@oldgold: Tell more.
WaterGirl
@Lapassionara: Wow, what a nice thing to say! Thank you, fingers crossed!
We raised funds for our regular awesome partners inn outraditional swing states. Four Directions, VAAC, etc. But we were a little bolder this cycle. It felt like we needed to be. North Carolina, Black and Asian peeps, Youth! Even a bit of PA and OH. (
Youth never show up) But I thought they would. And the Nebraska senate!Really hoping our branching out paid off! Helene is certainly not helping in NC.
oldgold
@Nelle: The 10 editorials he submitted to the Pulitzer Committee concerned a matter I was a central player in. Generally, his take on the matter was the opposite of mine.
frosty
@karen marie: Three presidential cycles? I’m on my sixth* and every one of them was more critical and existential than the last. Please make it stop after this!!!!!
*Bush Kerry Obama Obama Clinton Biden Harris
Melancholy Jaques
@frosty:
My first presidential election was 1976 and it was the last time I didn’t think the election was critical and existential.
dnfree
@Chet Murthy: I don’t know how old you are (not as old as me), but if you worked for IBM, I’d just like to say that the System 38/AS400/iSeries was by far the easiest computer system I ever wrote programs and designed systems for.
dr. luba
Quite worrying: the Seaholm High School results have come in, and Kamala wins by a landslide!!
WaterGirl
@fancycwabs: It’s crazy.
ljdramone
@dnfree:
Counterpoint:
I’d just like to say that once upon a time when I had to build X11R4 from source for seven different versions of Unix, AIX was by far the worst.
A Good Woman
Shared that video of the Philly DA on all my socials. Priceless!
David_C
When the DA said they gave the jail cells, he should have added, “…even if we have to reopen Eastern State Penitentiary.”
Mr. Bemused Senior
@ljdramone: ah, the many flavors of Unix. I once had the task of porting code to a variety of them. HP’s was a pain. Ultrix (DEC if I recall) was bad too.
[ETA Bemused Senior had the unenviable task of building Emacs for Interix, the predecessor of MS WSL. She made it work, it was a struggle.]
Lapassionara
@WaterGirl: I know the thread is dead, but I’m glad you saw this. Many thanks for all you’ve done to channel our dead to useful purposes.