Halfway thru my second beer, and making Korean tofu soup with dumplings. Just waiting for it to finish simmering.
We’ve all done what we could, all of us. Be of good cheer: nothing can be gained by freaking out now. We’ll find out what happens when it happens. Until then, try to remember all the things we did this year to get us to this night. We weren’t blase’ in the face of this danger. When we talk to our grandchildren (or grandniblings), we’ll be able to tell them we acted when the time came to act, we were not passive in the face of danger. Be of good cheer, eh?
3.
Jackie
I’m walking away from BJ before I start pie-ing. Too many Chicken Littles.
4.
thruppence
I wish Rings of Power was better. Lord of the Rings was mythic. Rings of Power is just TV.
I’m freaked but will try to maintain my usual 9:30pm bedtime. As far as sleep…🤷🏻♂️
6.
HumboldtBlue
Just cracked a beer and muted Kornacki, it’s just fucking noise. Time for the Liverpool highlights
7.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Cleaning my apartment for the sprinkler inspection tomorrow. Physical activity is better than fretting.
Got to say going out tonight eat was mistake since they had to just have CNN on the widescreen.
8.
Jackie
Fani Willis cruised to victory – that’ll ruin TCFG’s night 😁
9.
ssdd
I made it through the first two episodes of RoP season two before I finally gave up. Even as fanfic, and that’s all it is thanks to rights issues, it’s bad.
I’m very much on edge here and I’m knitting away and doomscrolling.
12.
Ms. Deranged in AZ
I don’t have tv and am surfing random things to avoid checking in on the results. Wish I could knock myself out for a couple of days though.
13.
Leto
There’s so much good tv right now, I’m sure we’ll eventually get to s2 RoP but no idea when. So many shows returning starting this month that we probably wont get to it till sometime next year, if that.
14.
opiejeanne
@HumboldtBlue: I just paused him. Listened to him for about 5 minutes and it’s too damned much.
Kornacki is dreporting states county by county, but the polls have just closed in some of those places, and we don’t fucking vote by counties! He’s trying to make this ExCitInG! Gah.
15.
dr. luba
Just got back home from the precinct. Exhausted. Started there at 0600, and slept poorly last night.
Oy.
It’s either British murder mysteries or crashing at this point.
OK, time to go put on some music and either read for a bit or watch something not election-related, also drink some watermelon juice (Vinut) and puff a little. Nothing else to be done now.
18.
PatrickG
There are some dirty dishes in the sink. I hope 90% survive the washing they’re about to get.
There are some dirty floors that need washing. I expect to need a new mop. And maybe some new floors at that.
Please offer a prayer for the baseboards when I get to them. (I’m an atheist but someone has to be looking out for them!)
I am so grateful to John Cole for making a virtual home away from home, to Betty Cracker for teaching me the incentive and invective uses language to be put to, to Anne Laurie for always being a calm port in a storm, and and and…. I could go on and on!
Thank you to all the front pagers who make this community possible. Thank you ti the commenters who make up this community.
And of course extra special thanks to WaterGirl, who gave this random guy his n the internet to make a difference when he had some money to donate but was too crippled with depression and anxiety to figure out how to use it effectively. Thank you WaterGirl.
And thank you all, again.
19.
Mike Molloy
I got through 1st 2 episodes of Rings of Power ok, not good but watchable, but episode 3 was a long dull slog. Needs more hobbits, less everything else
20.
VFX Lurker
I should be playing video games, but I have the LA Times electoral college map in a web browser.
21.
LeftCoastYankee
The whole Kornacki focus on percentages in counties without any context of volume or demographic shifts is just painful noise.
Or fitting to my mantra for the digital age: “technically correct but not actually helpful”.
@PatrickG: I second everything you wrote, PatrickG! Lots of people aren’t blessed with a community they can come to for support, advice, and solidarity. And pet pics!
24.
Spanky
@dr. luba: Crash, and sleep well! A day’s work week done!
I made it through the first two episodes of RoP season two before I finally gave up. Even as fanfic, and that’s all it is thanks to rights issues, it’s bad.
Completely agree. I ended up seeing every episode because my brother was visiting and he wanted to see it. It is a lot of money and lot of talent wasted.
I wanted to volunteer as a poll worker but after a year of being unemployed I just started a new job and this week everyone was required to be in office.
I am trying to stay away from the news because it’s just increasing my anxiety and no matter the outcome, the fight isn’t over – if we win we have things to accomplish and if we lose we have different things to accomplish. So I need to be ready for whatever is coming and that means trying not to drive myself insane.
27.
Gin & Tonic
I just checked my state’s Board of Elections website and learned the name of the Republican who ran against my incumbent Dem Congressman. I’m pretty tuned in, locally, and had literally never heard his name until I looked at the results.
I think this is the first Election Night since 2016 where I’ve spent any time on BJ. I sure hope things go differently this time…
31.
Aziz, light!
Freak out on Xitter. That always helps.
32.
bluefoot
@Chet Murthy: This community is amazing. And I continue to be in awe that we decided to work together to make a difference. And then we DO IT.
And that’s whether it’s pet rescue, GOTV, whatever. It’s….amazing.
33.
Gin & Tonic
@Melancholy Jaques:
The dude whose name I just learned, who ran for Congress in my district. I thought that was clear from context, sorry.
34.
KenK
Kornacki needs to get a hobby or something, Jesus.
35.
Planetjanet
I am at Col. Eugene Vindman’s watch party, VA-07. There is a great atmosphere, but still nervous. Just my county has a lot of outstanding votes, but we are running 2:1 for Vindman. Hope I am not jinxing anything by being optimistic.
36.
Chet Murthy
@bluefoot: It is the ONLY reason I don’t feel enormous fear right now. And why, regardless of what I wake up to tomorrow, I will not feel regret. We did what we could, when it was needful.
37.
NutmegAgain
Rewatching Wolf Hall, because somehow political intrigue from the 1500s I can take. Political intrigue from tonight is too damned much.
I started episode 1 earlier today, but the power went out. So at least it’s there for later.
39.
matt
it looks like we’re losing – is it time to work on resistance cells already?
40.
TooManyJens
Nothing actually surprising has happened so far, but the dooming on Bluesky’s getting to me so I need to take a break from there. Yeesh.
41.
Gin & Tonic
And I wonder if there’s anything to learn from this: here in RI, where early voting has been going on since Oct 16, just over 37% of Harris’ votes were early; 30% for Trump, and 20% for both RFKJr and Stein (neither of whom were any factor in the results at all, coming in at 1% for RFK and 0.6% for Stein.)
42.
suzanne
I am feeling too nervous to eat.
43.
Chet Murthy
@matt: We don’t know that. It’s early yet. And anything we need to do, we can start tomorrow, eh? Be hopeful for tonight! It costs -nothing-!
44.
hells littlest angel
Trump, Scott, abortion, cannabis … gah, Florida is hopeless.
@Planetjanet: wishing you a joyous night! And all of us, but esp the Vindman campaign and voters
46.
opiejeanne
We’re watching Burn Notice on Hulu, and I’m assembling a stuffed rabbit, supposed to be heirloom quality. Eventually it will go to my granddaughter, when she’s a bit older.
The designer is English, Sarah Peel, and the patterns are from a book, “Luna Lapin”.
I thought your state was going to come through for us, but the way everyone is counting is making me nervous. Should I be nervous, or am I paying attention to things that have not counted enough?
48.
HeleninEire
I just turned off the TV. I can’t watch. Pissed at myself because I purposely didn’t get any wine or beer in. I wanted to be perfectly alert when she won. I have some edibles but they are a combo of THC and CBD and they put me to sleep, which is why I have them.
Also pissed that I already watched the newest episode of The Great British Baking Show. That would have been an awesome diversion.
I’m all talk, though. I’ll turn the TV on again soon.
@Starfish: Virginia is going for Harris. Of that, I am confident. My Congressional seat is very competitive, though.
51.
TooManyJens
@Starfish: Folks were freaking out about losing ground relative to Biden in Loudon County, but then it turned out to be some kind of error and the final numbers aren’t in yet.
@matt: Does it? Are we seeing bad numbers out of MI, WI, and PA? Cause anything else is noise.
Those three states were always going to be what swung the election.
I’d love us to ultimately end up winning NC and GA, but we don’t need them.
For the senate, we need NV, MT, AZ, and OH. I don’t think Allred is going to pull off an upset, but I’d also be overjoyed to be wrong about that.
56.
Ms. Deranged in AZ
Feeling more than a little nauseous. Going to try to nap or listen to an audiobook. Just can’t watch this trainwreck in real time.
57.
J. Arthur Crank
The map on Apple News app has Harris up in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
58.
Ridnik Chrome
Tuning into BJ after an all day self-imposed news blackout. Also changing the strings on my acoustic guitar, because playing is the number one thing (okay, maybe one of the top three things) that helps me reduce stress.
Also, guitarists, has this ever happened to you? The cable jack on the guitar came loose and slipped inside the body, and my arms, though skinny, are still too big to reach inside and fix it. I’m going to have to take it into the shop. How embarrassing.
59.
Spanky
Dooming is what Democrats do. It’ll mostly work out in the end, except for the three seats on our school board that are destined for the wingnut homeschooler candidates. Our teachers and kids are so fucked.
60.
rodwell
Just finished being a poll worker. I am in NJ. Turnout was just under 50 percent today. This is very high. The county I am in had about 20 percent of the voters early voted. Also, approximately 40 of the county is on mail ballots. There were surges of lines during the day but nothing consistent. Equipment worked with a few issues but nothing that would cause significant delays. Some individuals with voters but they were resolved by provisional balloting. Not as bad as I feared. Everyone that walked in to the polling location cast a vote.
Hubby Dearest is watching TV and saying depressing things. I’m trying to ignore it all, can’t fkg stand the suspense. Got my new Cuisinart food processor today, going to unpack it.
69.
Shalimar
@hells littlest angel: I am in favor of cannabis legalization, but the Florida marijuana addicts I know are very strongly pro-Trump so fuck them ha ha.
@Shalimar: It distresses me that when that state becomes uninhabitable those people will come north again.
73.
Rusty
I am wondering about turnout around the country. Our town in New Hampshire has roughly 8,700 people eligible to vote, 8,400 did vote which a record percentage, 96%, which is stunning.
74.
Rachel Bakes
Thank you to whomever recommended School of Chocolate last week. First episode tonight. We both enjoyed it and eventually I’ll introduce my husband to the Chef’s process videos on YouTube
75.
MagdaInBlack
I have weed and caffeine, and Hal Sparks live stream telling me why to keep calm and so far its working.
CNN is one of the few channels I get. I have it on in the other room, on mute, but every time I catch a glimpse of the screen, I see Trump’s ugly mug. They have learned nothing.
Isn’t it a beautiful evening here? I’m considering putting a bottle of champagne and some cups to share in my backpack and hitting the streets (Castro, or perhaps 24th). Win or lose, I’ll be in sympathetic company.
Oh, and I’m watching a Korean historical drama but I may have to stop because palace politics are politics regardless of the era and the headgear.
81.
Leto
@Eolirin: I might have gotten a bad call, but I can’t throw the person under the bus for it.
82.
bluefoot
To everyone who volunteered, knocked on doors, written postcards, helped people vote, etc etc, THANK YOU. And thank you, WaterGirl for helping us find ways to make a difference in ways that aren’t merely additive when we work together. It means a lot.
And thanks y’all for being here.
83.
Kyle Rayner
I’m calling Subramanyam locally, and calling Kaine and Harris/Walz as victors in VA; idk and idc what reporters are waiting for.
84.
Starfish
@Spanky: Oh. The poor babies. I am sorry that this is happening with your school board.
85.
Spanky
@Spanky: Commenting by phone with a cat lying on my arm, so pardon the truncated grammar.
@Eolirin: polls there close in a little under 2 hours. Depending on lines, could be longer.
88.
Quinerly
All we need is WI, PA, and MI….and that one vote out of NE.
Keep in mind we can lose in GA and NV.
Leto, am I right?
89.
Spanky
@Starfish: I’m only going by the 2:1 GOP/Dem ratio in this county, but that metric is stone solid over 20 years.
90.
Omnes Omnibus
@suzanne: You probably won’t know WI results until tomorrow. Milwaukee counts its early and mail-in votes in a central location. there are over 100,000 them. There was a tabulation error with 30,000, so they are running those again. They will not report any of them until all are counted.
91.
Quinerly
Harris improving over Biden’s numbers in at least 4-5 GA countries. Slight underperformance in Fulton, though.
Thanks, Kornacki!
92.
frosty
@HeleninEire: Yeah, I’m all talk too. I went upstairs to play some music but you can see here I am. Ugh.
@HeleninEire: Are you filling in your Bolts sheet?
94.
BretH
Having been through this before I’m not overly worried, early red states going Republican, early leads in other states balanced by many urban/suburb voted still out. Just disappointed in the country and especially the men because I was hoping for an impossible flood of blue.
95.
Jackie
ALL these freaking called in bomb threats from Russia. I’m pissed off that RUSSIA could determine OUR ELECTION!!!😡😡😡
96.
columbusqueen
@opiejeanne: Lovely books, I have them. Am currently in bed with my snoring hubby, nervous as hell & stuffed to the gills by our anniversary meal. Can’t drink with my gout. Damn!
Let me guess, Crazy-eye Lake things she was cheated? :-) So sad for her!
100.
Spanky
@Jackie: Tomorrow, I want Joe to announce the delivery of another 100 F16s to Ukraine.
101.
frosty
@Ridnik Chrome: Try one of those long grabber things with something you press on your end to open up the ‘fingers’ on the other. The one I have is flexible too.
I might have to check out from BJ. Too much doom and gloom. I’ll hang with snuggly JoJo las Orejas.
And Kornacki.
Hang in there. Catch you tomorrow.
106.
JMG
I’m headed to bed, gang. I want to thank each and every one of you for the work you did in this campaign. I am proud to know all of you, even if it’s virtually. It looks now like we lose. That means after the mourning we really have to get to work. Again.
107.
Kyle Rayner
@opiejeanne: Burn Notice!! Why didn’t I think of that? Perfect show any day, but especially on a night when you want maximum dopamine.
In a presidential contest that pollsters say is virtually a toss-up, seven battleground states likely will determine the outcome of the election. The results could take days, election officials repeatedly have warned and stressed again Monday. The 2020 presidential race was called for President Joe Biden the Saturday following Election Day.
“Election Day is not results day,” said Quentin Turner, the Common Cause Michigan executive director, during a Monday webinar.
Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris-Walz campaign, made similar remarks during a Monday call with reporters, but still issued predictions as to when the campaign expects to know some results from key states.
She said the campaign understands that results could take a while based on each state’s law. Some states begin counting votes after the polls close, some as they come in.
O’Malley Dillon said because of that, the campaign expects on election night to have “near complete results” for North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia, “and then partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.”
She said the campaign expects by Wednesday morning to have most of the “results in from Wisconsin and additional results from Pennsylvania and potentially Michigan.”
“And then on Wednesday and beyond, we expect additional results from Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada,” she said. “So we think some of this stuff will trickle in, but keep in mind that some ballots will continue to be counted for many days.”
We’ve got to be patient.
Hang in there, everyone.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
109.
NotMax
Unobtrusive enough background music. Carl Nielsen, Symphony #4.
@Eolirin: Then I retract my Yippee and save it for later!
112.
Salty Sam
I wrote yesterday that I’m pretty calm about the whole thing, and that:
*I won’t be surprised if it is closer than is comfortable, and
* I won’t be surprised if it is a blowout for Team blue, and
* I WILL be surprised if Trump wins.
I’m not freaking out at this point, but my equanimity is pretty rattled right now. Obviously, the “blowout option” is not in play (it was never a serious consideration, just a sort of “wouldn’t it be nice?” fantasy). But watching various media platform’s coverage has reminded me of one of our rotating tags (paraphrasing):
”The media’s job is to keep you confused, scared, and angry. If you are confused, scared, or angry, they are winning!”
Deep breathing, and Bourbon, are my friends right now. Gonna be a long night.
113.
Rusty
@WaterGirl: Amherst NH. A relatively upscale community, high levels of college educated, highly engaged, etc. Still, it’s a stunning turnout.
114.
Starfish
@Jackie: I think there should be some deeper congressional discussions around foreign bomb threats and how to prevent them. They are not only messing with the election, but schools are dealing with this as well. Closing schools for a day or having kids skip because of threats that are not at all credible disrupts education.
@WaterGirl: I am. I made 2 copies because I knew the first one would have scribbles. Onto the second which is neater because OCD.
117.
Ohio Mom
The phrase that keeps going through my mind is, “Are we there yet?” Like a long car trip, this is grueling.
Meanwhile, Ohio Dad went over to Ohio Mother-in-law’s, who fell out of her chair and couldn’t get up. I can’t figure out how she got to the landline, I’m pretty sure she doesn’t ever use the cell anymore. If I don’t sound worried about her, it’s because she’s a tough old bird.
118.
Omnes Omnibus
@PsiFighter37: Do you only stop in these days to doom?
Nice. I want to try Pharoah at some point. Haven’t pulled the trigger yet..
I probably ought to log off and give my nerves a break instead of performing the doomscrolling equivalent of chainsmoking. Yet here stands I, Booboo, Court Jester to the King of Fools.*
I just keep telling myself that 2020 was worse, and we won there…
@Quinerly: I’ve run the numbers, and yes. Harris needs all the reliable blue states, which total 226. MI+WI+PA=exactly the 44 she needs to hit 270. GA, AZ, NC, GA, NV, and IA would all be nice bonuses, but she can get to 270 without any of them.
128.
JiveTurkin
Whatever we thought was going on with a late Harris surge is not materializing. Worst case scenario, it seems like the polls in the swing states were very accuate.
129.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Comrade Colette: I am more than a little convinced that CNN is deliberately a confusing mess of flashing, alarming colors to the suck the viewers in and a big part of the dooming we are seeing.
The NYT needle doesn’t convey any useful information.
It is like that “percent win probability” that shows up on the ESPN apps when you follow a football, basketball, or baseball game in the first or second inning (baseball) or the second quarter.
131.
Kyle Rayner
@tam1MI: Well, if NYT is saying he’ll win, then we’ve definitely got nothing to worry about.
@J. Arthur Crank: I thought that the NYT staff who work on the needle are on strike?
135.
tam1MI
@Omnes Omnibus:The NYT needle doesn’t convey any useful information.
I should make clear that is the only explanation I can see as to why folks are suddenly going all doom-and-gloom when the major Dem states haven’t even been counted yet.
2. I was going to ask “what about whales”, but then I realized they are technically not fish.
137.
Geminid
@Kyle Rayner: Suhas Subramanyam looks like he’ll make a good Congressman. He grew up in the Houston area and went to college at Tulane, and then earned a law degree from Northwestern. After that he worked in the Obama White House. At age 37, he’ll be our state’s youmgest member of Congress.
Subramanyam has an old family connection to the 10th Congressional District. His parents stopped at Dulles Airport while on their way to Texas from Bangalore, India.
138.
zhena gogolia
I have to go to bed. I can’t believe this country
139.
Bupalos
@JiveTurkin: That would be a best case scenario I’d say. Polls had her squeaking out the blue wall.
It is still only 7:20 here in San Diego. I think Harris wins eventually in the EC (and by several million in the popular vote), but your point is taken.
144.
Ohio Mom
@J. Arthur Crank: Yes, whales are mammals and nurse their babies.
another early call from DDHQ…I think this one looks sounder than NC given where the votes are out and how many there are but very early still.
*DECISION DESK HQ PROJECTS TRUMP WINS GEORGIA
147.
frosty
@HeleninEire: Oh Lord. Facebook reels, they hook me every time. The algorithm has figured out I’m a sucker for Kaley Cuoco and Sandra Bullock. No idea why they keep trying to get me to watch Friends though.
@WaterGirl: I understand why people are being negative. It looks bad in Georgia and North Carolina, and a lot of people including me were hoping it would be a big victory. But it still looks good in the other states that matter.
If we lose Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona because latinos break for Trump, then i won’t feel bad when Trump tries to deport all of them.
150.
Kyle Rayner
@Geminid: I didn’t know any of that! He seems like a very decent fellow. Our area wasn’t targeted by any of the candidates this year, but he stopped by knocking on doors, talking issues, and shaking hands in person during his previous campaign, which was the first time I’d ever experienced anything of the sort from a candidate. Left an impression!
@Jackie: That means Harris is currently winning Arizona?
155.
japa21
I remember being taught when I was much younger that democracy is the only form of government that carries within it the seed of its own destruction. We will find out over the next couple days if that is true in this country.
@me: Ignore anyone making a projection. In either direction. They’re not calls and are dubious at best.
162.
JiveTurkin
@HumboldtBlue: In PA, Trump is up by almost 3% with 56% of the votes in.
163.
Jackie
This is awesome!
Julie Johnson becomes the first openly LGBTQ person to serve Texas in Congress:
Julie Johnson was projected to win her election Tuesday for Texas’s 32nd Congressional District, making history as the first openly LGBTQ person to represent Texas in Congress and the first elected from anywhere in the South, where legislation targeting LGBTQ rights is largely concentrated.
Johnson, 57, handily defeated her opponent, Republican Darrell Day, according to Decision Desk HQ. She will succeed outgoing Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is looking to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
164.
Andrya
@thruppence: Totally agree about Rings of Power. And I’m the world’s worst Tolkien fanatic.
@WaterGirl: I have no confidence in NYT’s statistical modeling (and that is all they have at this point). But it’s hugely irresponsible on NYT’s part to publish that TCFG has an 83% chance of winning, and especially bad to do it without a warning “this is based on our statistical model, not actual ballots”. If Harris pulls it out, the NYT’s prediction is going to be taken as evidence of Democrats cheating, and is likely to encourage violence.
Rings of Power is much worse than bad. Down there with Mary Sue ff. I think I got through 2.5 (maaaaybe 3.5) episodes of the the 1st season, and just hit the wall. Turned it off, and never went near it again.
166.
Shalimar
@Aziz, light!: Yeah. I know. But it’s going to be horrible for the entire world if Trump wins and I do not have an unlimited supply of empathy.
@JiveTurkin: It’s fine, most of the outstanding votes are in very blue areas.
169.
LeftCoastYankee
Polls closed in NV. There are 3 hour lines there still
There’s some late counting coming
170.
Shalimar
@JiveTurkin: That is not much of a lead. The whole point of the legislation requiring mail-in ballots to be counted last was to give Republicans superficially good numbers in the election night reporting.
171.
Chet Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I made the same mistake in 2018 and 2020. So you’re not alone.
172.
Tenar Arha
@WaterGirl: JIC Did you see my donation in the flash poll post? I hope it made the match in time.
173.
YY_Sima Qian
& Trump is already projected to win IA? What happened to the Saltzer poll?
174.
Ksmiami
America is deeply broken I’m afraid. Ah well, we had a good run
Come on. Stay Kamala and carry onala. Nothing is decided.
177.
Doc Sardonic
@Ridnik Chrome: Yes, depending on guitar type there are some work arounds to save a shop charge
178.
J. Arthur Crank
@LeftCoastYankee: Did the polls close 8:00 pm local time there? The long lines left explains why the Apple News app has no tallies for Nevada right now.
ETA: I looked it up, and the polls closed at 7:00 pm local time in NV.
179.
dmsilev
@SectionH: I managed to make it through the whole first season, but had no real interest in watching the second. Sad, really, an enormous amount of effort and money spent, but maybe a bit more investment in the writers next time?
180.
JoyceH
I’m feeling sick. Trump has literally been melting down into a pile of toxic goo before our very eyes, and yet- he could win.
181.
JiveTurkin
@TooManyJens: I just looked at the county map, and it is true that many of the counties with large amounts of votes outstanding are Democrat, but 3% is a large margin with almost 60% of the vote in. The stunning thing is to see how many counties are 75%+ for Trump. Democrats are dead in the rural areas throughout the whole country. And I can’t imagine what they can do about it.
182.
ssdd
@SectionH: I did enjoy the storyline with the hobbits. Everything else though was just trash.
@dmsilev: I had much more fun watching YouTube videos dunking on every aspect of RoP, although some of them are full to the brim w/ techbro toxic masculinity.
It does seem the entertainment industry, & much of corporate America, treat DEI as pandering box-checking exercises, to distract from their insufficient progress in actually promoting Diversity, Equity & Inclusiveness.
If we lose, it’s on the voting Hispanic population. Hispanic men. And I agree with you. No empathy here.
189.
becca
@JiveTurkin: many many first time girl voters voted on Election Day. Those votes and others have yet to be counted.
190.
RaflW
Jebus. Polls have been ordered to remain open until 10:30pm CST in Whitewater, WI because of very long lines. The inability of a first world nation to process voters in a timely manner is fucking criminal.
191.
Stevo
I think Trump has it. Jesus.
192.
Seeker
It looks like PA is going to Trump.
I just want to wish everyone here the best. It’s been a pleasure reading this blog.
@JiveTurkin: You do know that everything depends on which votes are already in and which aren’t, right? Without knowing the location of the votes that are in and the ones that are not, numbers like that tell us absolutely nothing about the outcome.
So far, this makes it kind of look like it’s a waste of time talking about whether someone is doing a good job of campaigning. If Trump were anyone else he’d have been taken off the road he was so incoherent, yet he has a path. On the other side, Harris has been nothing but good, yet that way-too-caffeinated MSNBC guy keeps telling us about counties in which she’s underperforming Biden’s numbers (though in a couple of instances the numbers didn’t actually say that).
Democrats are dead in the rural areas throughout the whole country. And I can’t imagine what they can do about it.
It’s hard to penetrate the minds of bigots. Their commitment to white supremacy is down deep in their identities. People deny that it’s the controlling consideration because they have no useful response to it.
198.
Aziz, light!
@Suzanne: Same as in every election about this time. We have to wait for the urban votes to come in.
199.
Omnes Omnibus
@me: Decision Desk HQ is designed to make quick calls. It has already had to reverse some tonight. I wouldn’t rely on it.
200.
RaflW
@Andrya: That’s basically what I just said to my BF when he read that to me. They are not ‘reporting news’ when they do that, they’re creating a false impression and it’s irresponsible as hell. G.D. it.
@Andrya: Appreciate all that information. That the NYT would be irresponsible, particularly in favor of the orange oe, does not surprise me. It does, however, horrify me.
202.
Aziz, light!
The Democrat election anthem:
When in danger, when in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout.
203.
YY_Sima Qian
Made the mistake of peeking into the NBC live coverage, and I could feel my heart rate & blood pressure rise w/in minutes.
I think I will focus on work for the rest of the day, it would be good for my health for a change.
Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:
“It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”
@Quinerly: I’m old enough to remember that everyone was saying that the growing Latino population would make states go bluer.
208.
frosty
I’m signing off for the night. I’m disappointed we didn’t get the Harris blowout I was hoping for, but as far as PA is concerned, few of the mail-ins have been counted yet. Yes, many of the rural counties are 75% R at the moment, but they always are. If we hold it to 65% in my county, we win.
A little too much hand-wringing for me here. See you in the morning when more votes are counted.
You do know that everything depends on which votes are already in and which aren’t, right? Without knowing the location of the votes that are in and the ones that are not, numbers like that tell us absolutely nothing about the outcome.
214.
Lyrebird
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks Omnes! Over on DKos, where there’s a bit of a doomer convention going on in comments, someone did report that the NY needle had GA going R until the last minute when Senator Ossoff and his amazing colleague Senator Warnock were elected.
BREAKING: A judge has ruled in favor of the Navajo Nation, saying NINE precincts in Apache County, AZ will be allowed to stay open two hours past the statewide deadline of 7 PM because of voting issues in those precincts.
To all the doom and gloomers: Does anybody here really think that if You Know Who wins, it’s going to be Game Over? It won’t be. Nobody is seriously suggesting he’s going to win the popular vote. He would be starting out his term with widespread disapproval, and it would only get worse. Seriously, if he wins, this time next year, his approval ratings will be in the high single digits. Nobody will admit to voting for him. And he won’t be able to do most of what he says, because people will fight him. There are more of us than there are of them, and I know we’re not going to just roll over. Even if he wins tonight, he’s still gonna lose in the end.
But you know what? He’s not gonna win. We’re gonna pull this out.
@Kristine: Yeah, looks like Vlad found enough change in the couch to fund a few extra trolls.
226.
frosty
@Dman: Funny, I look at my youngest’s signature and think the same thing. “This looks like 3rd grade cursive! Practice on one until you like it!”
227.
Kelly
We put up enough fence to contain 5 month old Daisy on our 2 story back porch. Each level is 12×16 plus the stairs. It gives her a nice space to hang around in. She loves the view from the top level. Here’s what we see every time we come home.
@LadySuzy: If the growing Latino population would recognize how much Republicans hate them, that would be true. For some reason, many of them ignore all of the anti-immigrant and anti-birthright citizenship rhetoric even though it is obvious they are the targets.
I’m guessing 30% of Jews in 1932 Germany weren’t stupid enough to vote for Hitler. Fascists need an other to hate. The other isn’t supposed to vote for them.
@dmsilev: To me it’s more that a great story could have been made about lesser-known characters, which could have been able to use the context of the Silmarillion major events as background, but not changed characters like Artanis… yes Galadriel, but it was Celeborn who called her that – and where was he?
@Subsole: Not quite yet! I have another Old Fashioned to finish and then more of Rain Dogs by Adrian McKinty. The protagonist is a Catholic cop in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. So a bit calmer than here!
236.
Seeker
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Brown is very surprising to me…it doesn’t make anything better but I’ve enjoyed reading your comments here and wish you the best
Josh Marshall remarked earlier that maybe surprise of this election will be that the polls were right after all. I’m holding on to that thought because the polls showed a (admittedly narrow) win for Harris.
238.
tam1MI
According to the NYT, California just came in for Harris.
239.
hueyplong
@Elizabelle: Important win for House control. Can’t afford to give up seats when the overall necessity is to gain.
240.
Ohio Mom
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Fuck. I had a lot riding on both Brien and the glimmer of fair districts.
In another timeline, it would be funny to watch a nation convinced of its own greatness swing between best-nation-ever and fascism based on how many people go check a box on one night every four years, with the vote of anyone in a coastal area discounted by 40%. Amazing system
245.
Kelly
@piratedan: Mrs Kelly agrees with you. I mean I agree to but I can’t cheer her up. Our cat Martin is having some success mending her spirits..
246.
Peale
@YY_Sima Qian: there were still a lot of undecideds in that poll. But she was off by quite a bit. Still, there were 9% undecided. I was hoping more would break for her.
247.
J. Arthur Crank
@tam1MI: I think Steve Garvey was sent packing also too. Both events (Harris winning CA and Schiff winning the Senate) are the least surprising development of the day.
248.
RaflW
Ohio goddam.
Ohio Capital Journal @ohiocapitaljournal.com
The Associated Press projects Republican challenger Megan Shanahan has defeated incumbent Democratic Justice Michael Donnelly for his seat on the Ohio Supreme Court.
Moreno has (apparently) been called the winner over Sherrod Brown.
249.
japa21
One thing I am noticing is a lot of ballot splitting in some of the states. Not to Harris’ advantage.
250.
Ohio Mom
@Ridnik Chrome: If Trump God forbid wins, sorry, next year we will have President Vance. Who will be worse. But I think you are right that there will be a gigantic backlash. The pendulum will swing.
Look at where the votes are yet to come. This is a long way from being time to panic.
253.
RinaX
Nobody is seriously suggesting he’s going to win the popular vote. He would be starting out his term with widespread disapproval, and it would only get worse. Seriously, if he wins, this time next year, his approval ratings will be in the high single digits.
I believe Kamala Harris will pull it out. Having said that, all this was true before, and he’s still in a position to win. Unpopularity means nothing when people are more concerned about getting things cheap again and keeping illegals out.
254.
Ridnik Chrome
@J. Arthur Crank: As a Cubs fan, I take extra joy in Garvey’s loss.
Home from poll working and watching a slow stream of bad news. We’re not out of this yet but we need PA. Cmon Philly turnout and late breakers!!!!
258.
Eolirin
@RaflW: Not by AP, NBC or NYT. So I think that one’s not done just yet.
I’ll admit it doesn’t look great though.
259.
JiveTurkin
Unless Harris does very well on the mail in ballots she’s in pretty deep trouble in PA. At this point she’s down by 175k with 72% in. She needs to win the remaining vote by about 9 points, 54.5 to 45.5.
@Ridnik Chrome: As a Giants fan, I take even more pleasure in Garvey’s loss. I would say that the mere fact of his nomination shows that Republicans are not serious in California, but in truth they’ve nominated even worse people elsewhere, most obviously at the top of the national ticket.
I’m just following what’s happening in counties in PA populated by large Hispanic populations. Trump has made significant inroads in the Hispanic vote.
263.
SectionH
I just got a text from my son (very grown up, I’m a grandmother) who is worrying. Mr S is the optimist in the family, and I’m doom and gloom, but even I am not giving up yet or freaking. It looks like taking longer than we’d hoped, but yeah.
264.
Starfish
@Quinerly: We have not yet learned to quit blaming small groups for the behavior of the vast majority of white men, have we?
265.
Almost Retired
@Omnes Omnibus: Right. Isn’t that where we thought we’d be before the doom of July or the giddiness of this week? We are back to a super close election, whether it makes any sense to any of us or not. And even losing AZ would still put her at 270. I prefer an electoral college blow out, but I’ll take 281 or 270.
@Starfish: yep. Oh, and there were plenty of white women once again expecting that voting in favor of abortion then for their GOP rep and senator.
270.
Eolirin
@JiveTurkin: If the majority of the outstanding vote is in Philly and Pittsburg, she should do better than that.
271.
RaflW
@Eolirin: Bigger picture, the red states have gotten redder. The sorting and dividing will create untenable tensions. I can’t cope with this country being this OK with fascism, that the vote is this close overall, and the Senate will be a shit institution. Maybe Americans will be revulsed by what a Cruzificated senate does.
But our information environment is so bad, people won’t understand why their lives are getting suckier. I’m incredibly sour on this country tonight.
My memory is blurry, but I feel like we went through this with PA in 2020. I remember talking my girlfriend off the ledge.
278.
RaflW
@Peale: Seriously. Around 57% of Florida voters wanted to protect abortion. And the same pool of voters will vote about 56% for vehemently anti-abortion Trump.
It boggles the mind.
279.
Melancholy Jaques
I can’t spend any more time on tenterhooks. I am going to bed early and will check back in the morning. Please try to be kind & understanding to each other.
280.
Quinerly
@Starfish: I am just following how the vote is being analyzed. Perhaps it’s better to blame people who voted against their interests.
281.
Planetjanet
Col. Vindman just took the stage and declared victory for VA-07. It is a glorious night and well worth all the work and treasure. I have never been so proud of a candidate that I have volunteered for. Truly a man of honest, integrity, compassion and perserverance. We need more like him in Congress.
282.
K-Mo
@RinaX: Give us MI. Then we need PA and either WI or AZ.
283.
japa21
@Omnes Omnibus: I tend to agree with that assessment. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I know Trump had an extremely big lead in PA in 2020 and it slowly got whittled down. I expect the same thing here.
@Melancholy Jaques: My wife isn’t on the ledge because she is too depressed to get there. Contemporary presidential politics is playing hell with our radically different optimism levels (a bit too much in me, zero in her).
289.
PsiFighter37
Maybe this election wasn’t winnable. There will be a lot of second-guessing but at this rate, Shapiro on the ticket winning PA wouldn’t have made a difference. I think there’s a lot of trailer trash out there that is willing to bring itself out to vote for the likes of people like Donald Trump and Jim Justice. As someone who is a citizen by birth but was born overseas, who grew up believing all that was taught about American exceptionalism…this is a truly humbling experience. And one that, as soon as I can afford it professionally, financially, and otherwise, I will leave behind. If the poor white people of this country want to vote to fuck themselves even harder, at the expense of sticking a middle finger at people of color and LGBT folks…it won’t be ruining my day.
Electing a traitor to be president is just un fucking believable.
290.
JiveTurkin
@Eolirin: Pittsburgh is 90% in, Philly is 69% in. She’s down by 170k, it is getting class to mathematically impossible. Unless the mail-in ballots are overwhelming for Harris I don’t see it. Do they count them at the end?
291.
RinaX
Sherrod Brown being gone means the Senate effectively comes down to Tester. Not what I wanted.
292.
Eolirin
@Quinerly: The more credible places do not seem to have called that race yet for some reason. The places with outstanding vote seem to be breaking for Brown by a lot, but that’s a sizable margin to overcome too.
293.
sanjeevs
@RaflW: I think you hit the nail on the head with the information environment.
I dont think its appreciated just how much worse it’s become just in the last 4 years.
Twitter bought by Musk and turned into a Maga site.
Facebook shut down their access to even see the top 10 pages every day last year, likely because they would show how they were getting even Trumpier.
CNN bought by John Malone.
New media sites like Vox being shuttered.
CBS-Paramount has now been bought by the Ellisons. (Trumpers)
294.
Ridnik Chrome
@RinaX: He’s not gonna be a dictator, no matter what anyone thinks. If he tries shipping his political opponents off to Gitmo or wherever, there will be a civil war, and he doesn’t have the stones for that. Neither does Vance or anyone else on his team. They’re cowards and if push comes to shove they’ll fold faster than Superman on laundry day.
@Shalimar: Misogyny, racism, xenophobia, anti-LTGBQ, authoritarianism, religious fundamentalism, & reactionary tendencies are not just the exclusive preserves of white men, but human conditions common to all of humanity. I mean, just look at the rest of the world.
If the reactionary forces in the US were not so forward leaning w/ their specific brand of white Herrenvolk ethnonationlism, they would have even greater success.
Though I de-subscribed when Lewis came in, the Post’s election ‘dashboard’ gives a sense of the volatility (if that’s the right word). Shows swing states’ reported vote counts for each county or county group as the most recent numbers come in, & what % remains to be counted, & what % of the remaining unreported votes is needed if the current leading candidate is to prevail. (This shows how/when the lead changed over.)
Some of those tinted maps on other sites are very misleading. The Post’s ‘can’t call yet’ states are different.
Goes w/o saying that the various R efforts to slow the count leave the true counts unknown. For ex, Rs in certain states (incl in PA) have tried to de-register overseas ppl, which can be corrected but will take time before their votes can be counted.
JFC.
(Sorry, Kay. I know good and decent people live there. I’m not saying to write off anyone, but damn, there’s a lot of shitty voters in Ohio).
Ohio Capital Journal @ohiocapitaljournal.com
Breaking: Ohio Republicans have tightened their grip on the Ohio Supreme Court from 4-3 to 6-1 by ousting two incumbent Democratic justices and winning a third, open seat, the Associated Press projects.
306.
japa21
@JiveTurkin: She could make that up with just the outstanding votes in Philly.
307.
Ohio Mom
@Ksmiami: I have been surprised that there has been so little discussion on misogyny in this election. I have always thought it the elephant in the room (no pun intended but it works anyhow).
308.
Mai Naem mobile
@K-Mo: i honestly don’t think she’s going to win AZ. It’s just a combo gut feeling/minor anecdata. I hope to god I’m wrong. Inflation as far as regular everyday goods and the cost of housing has been really tough in Phoenix. There’s a real sticker shock for people who’ve lived here more than 5 years to pay $1500 to rent a 1 bed apt. Even if you’re making $20/hr that’s basically half your paycheck.
It’s not over until it is over, but I think that us being in this situation at all of being in dreadful suspense despite Trump being a flamboyantly unfit monster who has spent years demonstrating his unsuitability really sheds some uncomfortable light on the Fermi Paradox.
I think the concern is that, by the time enough people have realized just how atrociously they have shit the bed, the people behind Trump will have made it damn near impossible to reverse anything. Plus, just, y’know, sadness at all the havoc we needn’t have endured.
That said, your encouraging words are welcome and appreciated.
Probably gonna rack out in a bit myself. Try to sleep. I will deal with tomorrow tomorrow.
321.
Mai Naem mobile
@Jackie: i don’t understand why anybody would vote for Kari over Gallego. She has no qualifications. She was a freaking newsreader. She’s never even served on a school board or an HOA board. Gallego had been in the US House and served in the Marines. Went to Harvard. There is no comparison.
Trump has “huge” gains with Hispanic voters in NY and NJ.
Source: Kornacki and his maps on MSNBC
323.
Eolirin
@Ksmiami: We don’t have enough data to know anything other than that the must win states are going to be very close.
Being pessimistic or optimistic about it doesn’t change the fact that the outcome, as of this moment, is unknowable.
We’ll have a better sense of reality sometime tomorrow.
324.
wjca
@tam1MI: According to the NYT, California just came in for Harris.
No a surprise. Except.
I’ve been a poll worker. Polls close at 8 PM here. Just the basic admin stuff (e.g counting the number of ballot papers; not votes, just pieces of paper), straightening up the room, etc., routinely takes most of an hour. Which is to say, we aren’t there yet for any in-person voting. Then the ballots get taken to a collection point. From which they still have to be taken to the county seat to be actually counted.
In short, at most they’ve got a few precincts worth on in-person votes. They will have the early voting and mail ballots. But nobody has a long enough baseline to know how voting patterns for those compare to the eventual totals. In short, it’s a call for assumptions, not from actual ballots counted.
325.
RaflW
Dammit. Fuck. (I know, it’s not needed for Harris to win the WH. But for fuckity fuck’s sake, it says way too much about how shitty my fellow Americans are.)
NPR @npr.org
Former President Donald Trump has won the state of North Carolina, according to a race call by the Associated Press.
No matter what happens, I just want to say it’s been a real privilege being apart of this blog for the last 7 years or so (longer if counting my time lurking, probably 2011ish or 2012), connecting with people and making a real difference
328.
karen marie
@karen marie: I take it all back! I should have stuck with The Rest Is History. I’m up to the episode about 1066 England. It’s a terrific podcast. They put history in context of both then and now.
I’m thinking maybe I’ll just get on a Trump deportation bus.
But, what is done is done. And let’s wait until it is, in fact, done before we decide what to do.
330.
Mai Naem mobile
I don’t want to sound like a gloom and doomer but I’m upset. I don’t remember it being this bad in 2020. 2016 I think I was just in a combination of shock and denial. I can’t deal with 4 years of this asshole and you know its not going to just be 4 years.
@Ohio Mom: I’ve been hypothesizing many of the differentials we’re seeing from 2020 as the misogeny discount.
339.
mvr
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Hey. Thanks for that. I’m feeling a bit scared and glum, even without yet knowing exactly what will have happened today. So I kind of needed that comment, just because of its tone, even though I don’t feel like I’ve contributed much here.
340.
tam1MI
I can’t believe that Adam Schiff and Hillary Scholten vaporized my primary vote for this.
341.
Hoodie
@Quinerly: I’m beginning to think Harris is getting hit by the same force that derailed HRC – misogyny.
I wish I were wrong about this, but I’ve been looking at PA so long I forgot about WI and MI. WI is basically over, she has no real path to win. Down by 80k votes and the only Democrat area with any substantial amount of votes is Milwaukee and it won’t make up the margin. Unless they count mail-ins late it’s over.
347.
Westyny
Josh Riley (D) has a 6K vote lead in NY-19 with about 31k votes left to be counted. 91% in. A pickup if it holds.
348.
hueyplong
@RaflW: I was never as optimistic about NC (where I live) as I was about the other 6 swing states. It’s probably because I’m in a reddish area and pass through even redder ones on drives. Obviously nothing scientific or intelligently quantifiable, but it’s really a one-party area, which of course the South itself was back before the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. NC’s cities are going to have to get bigger before the state can flip, and it would help if so many of the transplants weren’t from GOP-heavy western NY.
I can’t blame the campaign. My daughter moved to Seattle after the 2020 election and during these last two weeks our phone rang over 100 times from each of NC’s 10 area codes with callers asking if she was home because they could tell she hadn’t voted here.
I’ve been saying for years that I have never seen the mainstream media as bad as it’s been since 2021. They’ve acted like this before in presidential election years like 2000 and 2016, but that was election year. This decade, they’ve decided to make it permanent. Any Democrat who somehow makes it to the White House gets the Butter Emailz treatment, all the time, on every possible issue.
Add to that the fact that social media has become a right wing puke funnel to a degree that wasn’t true even in 2020, so while politicians like Obama were able to use it to some extent to counteract MSM tendencies, it now just reinforces them instead, and yeah. You’ve got where we are now.
The media environment has more to do with how we’ve gotten where we are now, by far, than any other factor.
I will sign on to that, Goku. Whatever happens, we will continue on, fight back, laugh and cry together, laugh and dance, and carry on. It ain’t over until it’s over.
354.
JiveTurkin
IMO Harris ran an almost flawless campaign. Trump shit the bed the last two weeks, is completely incoherent and is a rapist, but what-the-hell, let’s make him president. In less than two years Vance will be president.
Sorry, that’s not a very nice first comment to a Jackal I really respect. Because I do.
356.
JiveTurkin
Any chance for PA seems to be slipping away. I think she’ll lose the entire blue wall, and I can’t imagine what she could have done differently.
357.
Westyny
@Chris: Agreed. It’s become apparent that it was always an uphill battle battle. Remember, in the “heartland” Fox News and rw talk radio are the default media channels. Throw in Sinclair and Gannet controlled media and it’s a suffocating blanket.
358.
JiveTurkin
@Chris: MSM might be a symptom, but it’s the people. How can a woman vote for Trump, he’s a rapist. How can any Hispanic vote for Trump based on his body of work. Black males voting for Trump? Boggles the mind.
359.
Geminid
I’ll tell you what. White Male privildge is a real thing.
I bet my White Male demographic did more for Trump this election than any other. But for months I’ve seen people here pre-blaming White Women for a Harris loss. Now it’s Hispanic Americans who are being scapegoated.
I have my own share of racial resentment just like I have my own share of misogyny. And I understand how someone’s resentments can come out in a crisis because that’s how people are. But people are holding an entire group of their fellow citizens– and fellow humans– to blame for a Harris loss that still is not even certain, and I think that is wrong whether Harris wins or loses. It’s a bunch of crab-bucket crap.
And what about the Hispanic Americans who voted for Harris? How are they at all inferior to someone who would applaud their deportation. It seems more the opposite to me.
Sticker shock everywhere honestly but Trump is not going to be able to solve it. How they think that doddering incurious idiot can actually solve their problems is behind me.
Josh Riley (D) has a 6K vote lead in NY-19 with about 31k votes left to be counted. 91% in. A pickup if it holds.
Oh I hope I hope I hope… sent a dozen or so postcards to get people to #bygoshvotejosh
Another bit of light: Prop 1 passed in spite of the hate-mongering campaign
363.
RinaX
Well, what are our chances when it comes to the House? That may be our only ray of hope over the next four years. Alito and Thomas are gone in January.
364.
Maxim
@Geminid: As a guess, people expect white men (and a depressing share of white women) to be politically awful. It’s more surprising when people who have been so clearly Othered by the GOP nonetheless support it.
365.
Ksmiami
@cain: that’s the funny part- all that is going to happen is Trump and the GOP will reduce and eliminate all the programs that help people
366.
mvr
Bits of light from Nebraska when I’m feeling very scared but am going to try not to make people feel worse:
Vargas has a substantial lead in NE02 with over 80% reporting according to NPR.
Harris seems to be in line to win that blue dot as well. I drove two Harris voters to the polls today and spend a week of afternoons making phone calls there, so that at least makes me feel a bit better.
Both the good (439) and the Bad (434) Abortion initiatives are winning with 65% of the vote counted and are trading the lead. They say the one with the most votes gets into the state constitution but I don’t know whether that has been fully determined by the courts.
Voucher repeal is going to win, as is Medical Marijuana, & Paid Leave.
We have repeatedly warned people that so many programs are in danger.
I guess they have to go to really get people to understand that elections have consequences.
Never mind that women’s health is also on the line.. not sure how to communicate this .
370.
Lily
Some of the richest men in the world dumped an unbelievable amount of resources into drowning Americans in fascist propaganda and still we fought it to a draw. We should be proud, whatever happens. (comment by Amanda Marcotte on blue sky)
@Planetjanet: That’s great news. Eugene Vindman was a good candidate and worked hard, and I look forward to his service in the next Congress. He and Suhas Subramanyam from the neighboring 10th CD will be two excellent additions to our state’s Democratic Congressional delegation.
I remember when Virginia Democrats sent three promising new Representatives to Washington. That was in 2018, when Elaine Luria flipped the 2nd CD down in Tidewater; Abigail Spanberger won the 7th and Jennifer Wexton took the 10th. They became part of the very talented House Democratic Class of 2018.
Next year, all three women will be out of Congress. Elaine Luria lost in 2022 and sadly, Jennifer Wexton must retire because of a grave illness. And Abigail Spanberger intends to be the first woman Governor of Virginia, and I pity the Republican who gets in her way.
373.
Geminid
@Planetjanet: That’s great news. Eugene Vindman was a good candidate and worked hard, and I look forward to his service in the next Congress. He and Suhas Subramanyam from the neighboring 10th CD will be two excellent additions to our state’s Democratic Congressional delegation.
I remember when Virginia Democrats sent three promising new Representatives to Washington. That was in 2018, when Elaine Luria flipped the 2nd CD down in Tidewater; Abigail Spanberger won the 7th and Jennifer Wexton took the 10th. They became part of the very talented House Democratic Class of 2018.
Next year, all three women will be out of Congress. Elaine Luria lost in 2022 and sadly, Jennifer Wexton must retire because of a grave illness. Abigail Spanberger intends to be the first woman Governor of Virginia, and I pity the Republican who gets in her way.
374.
Geminid
@Maxim: I understand that. But I’ve never believed in judging groups by their collective voting behavior, and I don’t believe in vengeful programs based on that.
Especially when they are directed at demogragraphic minorities. That can be be patronizing at best and at worst, flat out racism
But hey. How’s the race in your Congressional district going? Looks like I’ll have Eugene Vindman as my next Representative.
375.
wjca
@cain: I guess they have to go to really get people to understand that elections have consequences.
For the average, comfortable, middle class American, their (conscious!) interaction with the Federal government is limited to filing their income taxes each year.** Full stop.
Try taking away stuff, and they’ll go berserk. But until that happens they won’t recognize that it’s the Feds doing it. Witness the “Federal government hands off my Medicare!” signs a while back. They don’t even realize that it’s a Federal program until it gets slashed.
If the Project 2025 folks get rolling, the good news is that the impacts will be big enough to get their attention, and will hit on Trump’s watch. That they will remember. Even as the carefully forget that they voted for him.
** So if Trump says he will replace income taxes with tariffs, obviously that’s a plus. They won’t see the impact until it happens.
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What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
Watching New Girl reruns but ditto.
Chet Murthy
Halfway thru my second beer, and making Korean tofu soup with dumplings. Just waiting for it to finish simmering.
We’ve all done what we could, all of us. Be of good cheer: nothing can be gained by freaking out now. We’ll find out what happens when it happens. Until then, try to remember all the things we did this year to get us to this night. We weren’t blase’ in the face of this danger. When we talk to our grandchildren (or grandniblings), we’ll be able to tell them we acted when the time came to act, we were not passive in the face of danger. Be of good cheer, eh?
Jackie
I’m walking away from BJ before I start pie-ing. Too many Chicken Littles.
thruppence
I wish Rings of Power was better. Lord of the Rings was mythic. Rings of Power is just TV.
p.a.
I’m freaked but will try to maintain my usual 9:30pm bedtime. As far as sleep…🤷🏻♂️
HumboldtBlue
Just cracked a beer and muted Kornacki, it’s just fucking noise. Time for the Liverpool highlights
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Cleaning my apartment for the sprinkler inspection tomorrow. Physical activity is better than fretting.
Got to say going out tonight eat was mistake since they had to just have CNN on the widescreen.
Jackie
Fani Willis cruised to victory – that’ll ruin TCFG’s night 😁
ssdd
I made it through the first two episodes of RoP season two before I finally gave up. Even as fanfic, and that’s all it is thanks to rights issues, it’s bad.
Adam Lang
Sitting at an outdoor cafe in San Francisco. Mostly eating my fingernails. To the elbow.
Kayla Rudbek
I’m very much on edge here and I’m knitting away and doomscrolling.
Ms. Deranged in AZ
I don’t have tv and am surfing random things to avoid checking in on the results. Wish I could knock myself out for a couple of days though.
Leto
There’s so much good tv right now, I’m sure we’ll eventually get to s2 RoP but no idea when. So many shows returning starting this month that we probably wont get to it till sometime next year, if that.
opiejeanne
@HumboldtBlue: I just paused him. Listened to him for about 5 minutes and it’s too damned much.
Kornacki is dreporting states county by county, but the polls have just closed in some of those places, and we don’t fucking vote by counties! He’s trying to make this ExCitInG! Gah.
dr. luba
Just got back home from the precinct. Exhausted. Started there at 0600, and slept poorly last night.
Oy.
It’s either British murder mysteries or crashing at this point.
opiejeanne
@Jackie: Good!
Captain C
OK, time to go put on some music and either read for a bit or watch something not election-related, also drink some watermelon juice (Vinut) and puff a little. Nothing else to be done now.
PatrickG
There are some dirty dishes in the sink. I hope 90% survive the washing they’re about to get.
There are some dirty floors that need washing. I expect to need a new mop. And maybe some new floors at that.
Please offer a prayer for the baseboards when I get to them. (I’m an atheist but someone has to be looking out for them!)
I am so grateful to John Cole for making a virtual home away from home, to Betty Cracker for teaching me the incentive and invective uses language to be put to, to Anne Laurie for always being a calm port in a storm, and and and…. I could go on and on!
Thank you to all the front pagers who make this community possible. Thank you ti the commenters who make up this community.
And of course extra special thanks to WaterGirl, who gave this random guy his n the internet to make a difference when he had some money to donate but was too crippled with depression and anxiety to figure out how to use it effectively. Thank you WaterGirl.
And thank you all, again.
Mike Molloy
I got through 1st 2 episodes of Rings of Power ok, not good but watchable, but episode 3 was a long dull slog. Needs more hobbits, less everything else
VFX Lurker
I should be playing video games, but I have the LA Times electoral college map in a web browser.
LeftCoastYankee
The whole Kornacki focus on percentages in counties without any context of volume or demographic shifts is just painful noise.
Or fitting to my mantra for the digital age: “technically correct but not actually helpful”.
japa21
@dr. luba: Same here, except I started at 5.
Chet Murthy
@PatrickG: I second everything you wrote, PatrickG! Lots of people aren’t blessed with a community they can come to for support, advice, and solidarity. And pet pics!
Spanky
@dr. luba: Crash, and sleep well! A day’s work week done!
Melancholy Jaques
@ssdd:
Completely agree. I ended up seeing every episode because my brother was visiting and he wanted to see it. It is a lot of money and lot of talent wasted.
bluefoot
@dr. luba: Thank you for your service.
I wanted to volunteer as a poll worker but after a year of being unemployed I just started a new job and this week everyone was required to be in office.
I am trying to stay away from the news because it’s just increasing my anxiety and no matter the outcome, the fight isn’t over – if we win we have things to accomplish and if we lose we have different things to accomplish. So I need to be ready for whatever is coming and that means trying not to drive myself insane.
Gin & Tonic
I just checked my state’s Board of Elections website and learned the name of the Republican who ran against my incumbent Dem Congressman. I’m pretty tuned in, locally, and had literally never heard his name until I looked at the results.
Oh, he lost.
Melancholy Jaques
@Gin & Tonic:
Who lost?
Spanky
Please, people! Shut Kornaki off. Play some jazz station. Anything but the election.
Dadadadadadada
I think this is the first Election Night since 2016 where I’ve spent any time on BJ. I sure hope things go differently this time…
Aziz, light!
Freak out on Xitter. That always helps.
bluefoot
@Chet Murthy: This community is amazing. And I continue to be in awe that we decided to work together to make a difference. And then we DO IT.
And that’s whether it’s pet rescue, GOTV, whatever. It’s….amazing.
Gin & Tonic
@Melancholy Jaques:
The dude whose name I just learned, who ran for Congress in my district. I thought that was clear from context, sorry.
KenK
Kornacki needs to get a hobby or something, Jesus.
Planetjanet
I am at Col. Eugene Vindman’s watch party, VA-07. There is a great atmosphere, but still nervous. Just my county has a lot of outstanding votes, but we are running 2:1 for Vindman. Hope I am not jinxing anything by being optimistic.
Chet Murthy
@bluefoot: It is the ONLY reason I don’t feel enormous fear right now. And why, regardless of what I wake up to tomorrow, I will not feel regret. We did what we could, when it was needful.
NutmegAgain
Rewatching Wolf Hall, because somehow political intrigue from the 1500s I can take. Political intrigue from tonight is too damned much.
HumboldtBlue
@VFX Lurker:
I tried to play some Total war, just can’t get into it.
@NutmegAgain:
I started episode 1 earlier today, but the power went out. So at least it’s there for later.
matt
it looks like we’re losing – is it time to work on resistance cells already?
TooManyJens
Nothing actually surprising has happened so far, but the dooming on Bluesky’s getting to me so I need to take a break from there. Yeesh.
Gin & Tonic
And I wonder if there’s anything to learn from this: here in RI, where early voting has been going on since Oct 16, just over 37% of Harris’ votes were early; 30% for Trump, and 20% for both RFKJr and Stein (neither of whom were any factor in the results at all, coming in at 1% for RFK and 0.6% for Stein.)
suzanne
I am feeling too nervous to eat.
Chet Murthy
@matt: We don’t know that. It’s early yet. And anything we need to do, we can start tomorrow, eh? Be hopeful for tonight! It costs -nothing-!
hells littlest angel
Trump, Scott, abortion, cannabis … gah, Florida is hopeless.
Matt Smith
@Planetjanet: wishing you a joyous night! And all of us, but esp the Vindman campaign and voters
opiejeanne
We’re watching Burn Notice on Hulu, and I’m assembling a stuffed rabbit, supposed to be heirloom quality. Eventually it will go to my granddaughter, when she’s a bit older.
The designer is English, Sarah Peel, and the patterns are from a book, “Luna Lapin”.
https://flic.kr/p/2qsqZHt
https://flic.kr/p/2qsrVGh
Starfish
@Planetjanet: What’s that like?
I thought your state was going to come through for us, but the way everyone is counting is making me nervous. Should I be nervous, or am I paying attention to things that have not counted enough?
HeleninEire
I just turned off the TV. I can’t watch. Pissed at myself because I purposely didn’t get any wine or beer in. I wanted to be perfectly alert when she won. I have some edibles but they are a combo of THC and CBD and they put me to sleep, which is why I have them.
Also pissed that I already watched the newest episode of The Great British Baking Show. That would have been an awesome diversion.
I’m all talk, though. I’ll turn the TV on again soon.
HumboldtBlue
@TooManyJens:
Find me and I’ll send pics of Noodles.
Planetjanet
@Starfish: Virginia is going for Harris. Of that, I am confident. My Congressional seat is very competitive, though.
TooManyJens
@Starfish: Folks were freaking out about losing ground relative to Biden in Loudon County, but then it turned out to be some kind of error and the final numbers aren’t in yet.
TooManyJens
@HumboldtBlue: Just followed!
suzanne
@hells littlest angel: Florida is so, so bad.
opiejeanne
@LeftCoastYankee: Exactly. Kornacki is just making noise.
Eolirin
@matt: Does it? Are we seeing bad numbers out of MI, WI, and PA? Cause anything else is noise.
Those three states were always going to be what swung the election.
I’d love us to ultimately end up winning NC and GA, but we don’t need them.
For the senate, we need NV, MT, AZ, and OH. I don’t think Allred is going to pull off an upset, but I’d also be overjoyed to be wrong about that.
Ms. Deranged in AZ
Feeling more than a little nauseous. Going to try to nap or listen to an audiobook. Just can’t watch this trainwreck in real time.
J. Arthur Crank
The map on Apple News app has Harris up in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Ridnik Chrome
Tuning into BJ after an all day self-imposed news blackout. Also changing the strings on my acoustic guitar, because playing is the number one thing (okay, maybe one of the top three things) that helps me reduce stress.
Also, guitarists, has this ever happened to you? The cable jack on the guitar came loose and slipped inside the body, and my arms, though skinny, are still too big to reach inside and fix it. I’m going to have to take it into the shop. How embarrassing.
Spanky
Dooming is what Democrats do. It’ll mostly work out in the end, except for the three seats on our school board that are destined for the wingnut homeschooler candidates. Our teachers and kids are so fucked.
rodwell
Just finished being a poll worker. I am in NJ. Turnout was just under 50 percent today. This is very high. The county I am in had about 20 percent of the voters early voted. Also, approximately 40 of the county is on mail ballots. There were surges of lines during the day but nothing consistent. Equipment worked with a few issues but nothing that would cause significant delays. Some individuals with voters but they were resolved by provisional balloting. Not as bad as I feared. Everyone that walked in to the polling location cast a vote.
Spanky
We got Alsobrooks over the line.
HumboldtBlue
@TooManyJens:
Followed back if you’re the tealdeer!
Leto
Gallego takes AZ senate seat.
YY_Sima Qian
Yeah, watching RoP would not have been a calming experience for me.
Spanky
@Spanky: Also enshrined abortion/ bodily autonomy in the state constitution.
Eolirin
@Spanky: It’s looking like that one isn’t even going to be close.
Quinerly
@Leto: 💙
Tehanu
Hubby Dearest is watching TV and saying depressing things. I’m trying to ignore it all, can’t fkg stand the suspense. Got my new Cuisinart food processor today, going to unpack it.
Shalimar
@hells littlest angel: I am in favor of cannabis legalization, but the Florida marijuana addicts I know are very strongly pro-Trump so fuck them ha ha.
Eolirin
@Leto: I don’t see any results for AZ yet
Chief Oshkosh
@Spanky: Yep, that’s a good win. :)
Spanky
@Shalimar: It distresses me that when that state becomes uninhabitable those people will come north again.
Rusty
I am wondering about turnout around the country. Our town in New Hampshire has roughly 8,700 people eligible to vote, 8,400 did vote which a record percentage, 96%, which is stunning.
Rachel Bakes
Thank you to whomever recommended School of Chocolate last week. First episode tonight. We both enjoyed it and eventually I’ll introduce my husband to the Chef’s process videos on YouTube
MagdaInBlack
I have weed and caffeine, and Hal Sparks live stream telling me why to keep calm and so far its working.
suzanne
I’m worried about Michigan and Wisconsin.
Quinerly
@Rusty:
That’s incredible. Wow. Just wow.
Spanky
@Rusty: Mostly hearsay reporting says very high, but will have to wait for actual numbers.
Omnes Omnibus
Sarah McBride of Delaware just became the first transgender MOC elect.
Comrade Colette
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
CNN is one of the few channels I get. I have it on in the other room, on mute, but every time I catch a glimpse of the screen, I see Trump’s ugly mug. They have learned nothing.
@Adam Lang:
Isn’t it a beautiful evening here? I’m considering putting a bottle of champagne and some cups to share in my backpack and hitting the streets (Castro, or perhaps 24th). Win or lose, I’ll be in sympathetic company.
Oh, and I’m watching a Korean historical drama but I may have to stop because palace politics are politics regardless of the era and the headgear.
Leto
@Eolirin: I might have gotten a bad call, but I can’t throw the person under the bus for it.
bluefoot
To everyone who volunteered, knocked on doors, written postcards, helped people vote, etc etc, THANK YOU. And thank you, WaterGirl for helping us find ways to make a difference in ways that aren’t merely additive when we work together. It means a lot.
And thanks y’all for being here.
Kyle Rayner
I’m calling Subramanyam locally, and calling Kaine and Harris/Walz as victors in VA; idk and idc what reporters are waiting for.
Starfish
@Spanky: Oh. The poor babies. I am sorry that this is happening with your school board.
Spanky
@Spanky: Commenting by phone with a cat lying on my arm, so pardon the truncated grammar.
Subsole
@HumboldtBlue:
Which one?
I always liked TW Attila, myself.
Juju
@Eolirin: polls there close in a little under 2 hours. Depending on lines, could be longer.
Quinerly
All we need is WI, PA, and MI….and that one vote out of NE.
Keep in mind we can lose in GA and NV.
Leto, am I right?
Spanky
@Starfish: I’m only going by the 2:1 GOP/Dem ratio in this county, but that metric is stone solid over 20 years.
Omnes Omnibus
@suzanne: You probably won’t know WI results until tomorrow. Milwaukee counts its early and mail-in votes in a central location. there are over 100,000 them. There was a tabulation error with 30,000, so they are running those again. They will not report any of them until all are counted.
Quinerly
Harris improving over Biden’s numbers in at least 4-5 GA countries. Slight underperformance in Fulton, though.
Thanks, Kornacki!
frosty
@HeleninEire: Yeah, I’m all talk too. I went upstairs to play some music but you can see here I am. Ugh.
WaterGirl
@HeleninEire: Are you filling in your Bolts sheet?
BretH
Having been through this before I’m not overly worried, early red states going Republican, early leads in other states balanced by many urban/suburb voted still out. Just disappointed in the country and especially the men because I was hoping for an impossible flood of blue.
Jackie
ALL these freaking called in bomb threats from Russia. I’m pissed off that RUSSIA could determine OUR ELECTION!!!😡😡😡
columbusqueen
@opiejeanne: Lovely books, I have them. Am currently in bed with my snoring hubby, nervous as hell & stuffed to the gills by our anniversary meal. Can’t drink with my gout. Damn!
HumboldtBlue
@Subsole:
I’ve been playing the original, Shogun, doesn’t take a ton of deep focus.
Now I am watching the second half of Liverpool v Leverkusen in the Champions League.
Leto
@Quinerly: pretty much.
WaterGirl
@Leto: Yippee on Ruben Gallego!!!
Let me guess, Crazy-eye Lake things she was cheated? :-) So sad for her!
Spanky
@Jackie: Tomorrow, I want Joe to announce the delivery of another 100 F16s to Ukraine.
frosty
@Ridnik Chrome: Try one of those long grabber things with something you press on your end to open up the ‘fingers’ on the other. The one I have is flexible too.
WaterGirl
@Rusty: Wowser, 96% turnout seems nearly impossible!
Kristine
Not sure if this link will work. Snagged from WaPo by way of Bluesky, the Blue shift in key states over time:
https://bsky.app/profile/bobmann.bsky.social/post/3laac7v45ud2n
We’ve discussed before that we won’t know the final counts of some states for days. Are we forgetting that?
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: I think this is a premature call.
Quinerly
@Leto:
I might have to check out from BJ. Too much doom and gloom. I’ll hang with snuggly JoJo las Orejas.
And Kornacki.
Hang in there. Catch you tomorrow.
JMG
I’m headed to bed, gang. I want to thank each and every one of you for the work you did in this campaign. I am proud to know all of you, even if it’s virtually. It looks now like we lose. That means after the mourning we really have to get to work. Again.
Kyle Rayner
@opiejeanne: Burn Notice!! Why didn’t I think of that? Perfect show any day, but especially on a night when you want maximum dopamine.
Another Scott
Rest easy everyone.
VirginiaMercury.com:
We’ve got to be patient.
Hang in there, everyone.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
Unobtrusive enough background music. Carl Nielsen, Symphony #4.
PsiFighter37
We are fucked.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Then I retract my Yippee and save it for later!
Salty Sam
I wrote yesterday that I’m pretty calm about the whole thing, and that:
*I won’t be surprised if it is closer than is comfortable, and
* I won’t be surprised if it is a blowout for Team blue, and
* I WILL be surprised if Trump wins.
I’m not freaking out at this point, but my equanimity is pretty rattled right now. Obviously, the “blowout option” is not in play (it was never a serious consideration, just a sort of “wouldn’t it be nice?” fantasy). But watching various media platform’s coverage has reminded me of one of our rotating tags (paraphrasing):
”The media’s job is to keep you confused, scared, and angry. If you are confused, scared, or angry, they are winning!”
Deep breathing, and Bourbon, are my friends right now. Gonna be a long night.
Rusty
@WaterGirl: Amherst NH. A relatively upscale community, high levels of college educated, highly engaged, etc. Still, it’s a stunning turnout.
Starfish
@Jackie: I think there should be some deeper congressional discussions around foreign bomb threats and how to prevent them. They are not only messing with the election, but schools are dealing with this as well. Closing schools for a day or having kids skip because of threats that are not at all credible disrupts education.
Lexiltucky
@Ridnik Chrome:
It happened to me some time back. It’s an easy fix. Just need a 1/4 inch dowel rod.
This youtube will show you how.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUOuI_Xc4O4
HeleninEire
@WaterGirl: I am. I made 2 copies because I knew the first one would have scribbles. Onto the second which is neater because OCD.
Ohio Mom
The phrase that keeps going through my mind is, “Are we there yet?” Like a long car trip, this is grueling.
Meanwhile, Ohio Dad went over to Ohio Mother-in-law’s, who fell out of her chair and couldn’t get up. I can’t figure out how she got to the landline, I’m pretty sure she doesn’t ever use the cell anymore. If I don’t sound worried about her, it’s because she’s a tough old bird.
Omnes Omnibus
@PsiFighter37: Do you only stop in these days to doom?
WaterGirl
@HeleninEire: I printed mine but I haven’t started on it yet.
I can’t figure out why so many people here seem to think we are screwed when there are hardly any results in yet.
*I am not watching anything on TV.
Dadadadadadada
@J. Arthur Crank: That’s all she needs. That’s all she needs. That’s all she needs. (This is self-soothing behavior.)
HeleninEire
@frosty: I’m watching Facebook reels, but here I am back again. No TV yet.
Subsole
@HumboldtBlue:
Nice. I want to try Pharoah at some point. Haven’t pulled the trigger yet..
I probably ought to log off and give my nerves a break instead of performing the doomscrolling equivalent of chainsmoking. Yet here stands I, Booboo, Court Jester to the King of Fools.*
I just keep telling myself that 2020 was worse, and we won there…
*In flat shoes.
frosty
@Ridnik Chrome: This:
https://www.amazon.com/
search on: ALINNA-Flexible-Grabber-Bendable-Reaching/
the URL was too long to paste
tam1MI
New York Times is predicting Trump will win based on results so far.
Salty Sam
@PsiFighter37: Not helpful dude. Stop it.
Omnes Omnibus
@tam1MI: The NYT needle doesn’t convey any useful information.
Dadadadadadada
@Quinerly: I’ve run the numbers, and yes. Harris needs all the reliable blue states, which total 226. MI+WI+PA=exactly the 44 she needs to hit 270. GA, AZ, NC, GA, NV, and IA would all be nice bonuses, but she can get to 270 without any of them.
JiveTurkin
Whatever we thought was going on with a late Harris surge is not materializing. Worst case scenario, it seems like the polls in the swing states were very accuate.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Comrade Colette: I am more than a little convinced that CNN is deliberately a confusing mess of flashing, alarming colors to the suck the viewers in and a big part of the dooming we are seeing.
J. Arthur Crank
@Omnes Omnibus:
It is like that “percent win probability” that shows up on the ESPN apps when you follow a football, basketball, or baseball game in the first or second inning (baseball) or the second quarter.
Kyle Rayner
@tam1MI: Well, if NYT is saying he’ll win, then we’ve definitely got nothing to worry about.
Lyrebird
@PatrickG: Cheers for PatrickG!
Wish I could apply some of your (unless I misunderstood) nervous energy to my kitchhen floor. My current work schedule is *not* helping me out.
It is making me so exhausted that I will definitely sleep, at least!
I still carry the pain of 2016, but I feel ready… and tired.
If we could get a Dem senator from TX or MO that would be a beautiful miracle.
Omnes Omnibus
@J. Arthur Crank: Exactly. About as useful as tits on a fish.
Kayla Rudbek
@J. Arthur Crank: I thought that the NYT staff who work on the needle are on strike?
tam1MI
@Omnes Omnibus:The NYT needle doesn’t convey any useful information.
I should make clear that is the only explanation I can see as to why folks are suddenly going all doom-and-gloom when the major Dem states haven’t even been counted yet.
J. Arthur Crank
@Omnes Omnibus:
Two observations:
1. I usually say “tits on a bull”.
2. I was going to ask “what about whales”, but then I realized they are technically not fish.
Geminid
@Kyle Rayner: Suhas Subramanyam looks like he’ll make a good Congressman. He grew up in the Houston area and went to college at Tulane, and then earned a law degree from Northwestern. After that he worked in the Obama White House. At age 37, he’ll be our state’s youmgest member of Congress.
Subramanyam has an old family connection to the 10th Congressional District. His parents stopped at Dulles Airport while on their way to Texas from Bangalore, India.
zhena gogolia
I have to go to bed. I can’t believe this country
Bupalos
@JiveTurkin: That would be a best case scenario I’d say. Polls had her squeaking out the blue wall.
HumboldtBlue
@Subsole:
I’m gonna learn Rome next.
JoyceH
Ted Cruz! Fuck!
Quinerly
@Dadadadadadada: thanks.
J. Arthur Crank
@zhena gogolia:
It is still only 7:20 here in San Diego. I think Harris wins eventually in the EC (and by several million in the popular vote), but your point is taken.
Ohio Mom
@J. Arthur Crank: Yes, whales are mammals and nurse their babies.
HumboldtBlue
Some music
me
Shit. https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3laasih5j6z2l
frosty
@HeleninEire: Oh Lord. Facebook reels, they hook me every time. The algorithm has figured out I’m a sucker for Kaley Cuoco and Sandra Bullock. No idea why they keep trying to get me to watch Friends though.
Jackie
Kari Lake’s already calling election fraud😂
She’s embarrassing to her own party.
Shalimar
@WaterGirl: I understand why people are being negative. It looks bad in Georgia and North Carolina, and a lot of people including me were hoping it would be a big victory. But it still looks good in the other states that matter.
If we lose Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona because latinos break for Trump, then i won’t feel bad when Trump tries to deport all of them.
Kyle Rayner
@Geminid: I didn’t know any of that! He seems like a very decent fellow. Our area wasn’t targeted by any of the candidates this year, but he stopped by knocking on doors, talking issues, and shaking hands in person during his previous campaign, which was the first time I’d ever experienced anything of the sort from a candidate. Left an impression!
JiveTurkin
@Jackie: She’s embarrassing to her own party.
Embarrassing to the Republican party? Impossible.
SuzieC
I am freaking out about Pennsylvania.
Happy About Ruben Gallego.
Want to stab some people about Ted Cruz.
JiveTurkin
@Shalimar: I’ll feel bad for the children.
J. Arthur Crank
@Jackie: That means Harris is currently winning Arizona?
japa21
I remember being taught when I was much younger that democracy is the only form of government that carries within it the seed of its own destruction. We will find out over the next couple days if that is true in this country.
kalakal
@HumboldtBlue: Medieval II is my comfort food
Shalimar
@JiveTurkin: Their parents can apologize to them back in the old country for fucking up their future.
YY_Sima Qian
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Circus for the masses.
YY_Sima Qian
In ’08 & ’12, I thought TX would be a gettable state by now. Uhh.
Aziz, light!
@Shalimar: That’s a really shitty thing to say.
Eolirin
@me: Ignore anyone making a projection. In either direction. They’re not calls and are dubious at best.
JiveTurkin
@HumboldtBlue: In PA, Trump is up by almost 3% with 56% of the votes in.
Jackie
This is awesome!
Julie Johnson becomes the first openly LGBTQ person to serve Texas in Congress:
Andrya
@thruppence: Totally agree about Rings of Power. And I’m the world’s worst Tolkien fanatic.
@WaterGirl: I have no confidence in NYT’s statistical modeling (and that is all they have at this point). But it’s hugely irresponsible on NYT’s part to publish that TCFG has an 83% chance of winning, and especially bad to do it without a warning “this is based on our statistical model, not actual ballots”. If Harris pulls it out, the NYT’s prediction is going to be taken as evidence of Democrats cheating, and is likely to encourage violence.
SectionH
@ssdd: @thruppence: @Mike Molloy:
Rings of Power is much worse than bad. Down there with Mary Sue ff. I think I got through 2.5 (maaaaybe 3.5) episodes of the the 1st season, and just hit the wall. Turned it off, and never went near it again.
Shalimar
@Aziz, light!: Yeah. I know. But it’s going to be horrible for the entire world if Trump wins and I do not have an unlimited supply of empathy.
Lyrebird
@Jackie:
Thanks, that’s really cool!
TooManyJens
@JiveTurkin: It’s fine, most of the outstanding votes are in very blue areas.
LeftCoastYankee
Polls closed in NV. There are 3 hour lines there still
There’s some late counting coming
Shalimar
@JiveTurkin: That is not much of a lead. The whole point of the legislation requiring mail-in ballots to be counted last was to give Republicans superficially good numbers in the election night reporting.
Chet Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I made the same mistake in 2018 and 2020. So you’re not alone.
Tenar Arha
@WaterGirl: JIC Did you see my donation in the flash poll post? I hope it made the match in time.
YY_Sima Qian
& Trump is already projected to win IA? What happened to the Saltzer poll?
Ksmiami
America is deeply broken I’m afraid. Ah well, we had a good run
HumboldtBlue
@kalakal:
Hah! Me too!
West of the Rockies
Come on. Stay Kamala and carry onala. Nothing is decided.
Doc Sardonic
@Ridnik Chrome: Yes, depending on guitar type there are some work arounds to save a shop charge
J. Arthur Crank
@LeftCoastYankee: Did the polls close 8:00 pm local time there? The long lines left explains why the Apple News app has no tallies for Nevada right now.
ETA: I looked it up, and the polls closed at 7:00 pm local time in NV.
dmsilev
@SectionH: I managed to make it through the whole first season, but had no real interest in watching the second. Sad, really, an enormous amount of effort and money spent, but maybe a bit more investment in the writers next time?
JoyceH
I’m feeling sick. Trump has literally been melting down into a pile of toxic goo before our very eyes, and yet- he could win.
JiveTurkin
@TooManyJens: I just looked at the county map, and it is true that many of the counties with large amounts of votes outstanding are Democrat, but 3% is a large margin with almost 60% of the vote in. The stunning thing is to see how many counties are 75%+ for Trump. Democrats are dead in the rural areas throughout the whole country. And I can’t imagine what they can do about it.
ssdd
@SectionH: I did enjoy the storyline with the hobbits. Everything else though was just trash.
Suzanne
Trump currently ahead in PA, WI, and MI.
Sister Golden Bear
Thank for small victories. Delaware elects the nation’s first trans member of Congress.
Congratulations Representative-Elect Sarah McBride!
WaterGirl
@JoyceH: What about Ted Cruz?
prostratedragon
@LeftCoastYankee: And so breathless!🙄
YY_Sima Qian
@dmsilev: I had much more fun watching YouTube videos dunking on every aspect of RoP, although some of them are full to the brim w/ techbro toxic masculinity.
It does seem the entertainment industry, & much of corporate America, treat DEI as pandering box-checking exercises, to distract from their insufficient progress in actually promoting Diversity, Equity & Inclusiveness.
Quinerly
@Shalimar:
If we lose, it’s on the voting Hispanic population. Hispanic men. And I agree with you. No empathy here.
becca
@JiveTurkin: many many first time girl voters voted on Election Day. Those votes and others have yet to be counted.
RaflW
Jebus. Polls have been ordered to remain open until 10:30pm CST in Whitewater, WI because of very long lines. The inability of a first world nation to process voters in a timely manner is fucking criminal.
Stevo
I think Trump has it. Jesus.
Seeker
It looks like PA is going to Trump.
I just want to wish everyone here the best. It’s been a pleasure reading this blog.
becca
@Suzanne: please stop.
RevRick
Well, I guess the people of our country have chosen to live in a fascist state.
WaterGirl
@JiveTurkin: You do know that everything depends on which votes are already in and which aren’t, right? Without knowing the location of the votes that are in and the ones that are not, numbers like that tell us absolutely nothing about the outcome.
hueyplong
@WaterGirl: NBC called it for Cruz.
So far, this makes it kind of look like it’s a waste of time talking about whether someone is doing a good job of campaigning. If Trump were anyone else he’d have been taken off the road he was so incoherent, yet he has a path. On the other side, Harris has been nothing but good, yet that way-too-caffeinated MSNBC guy keeps telling us about counties in which she’s underperforming Biden’s numbers (though in a couple of instances the numbers didn’t actually say that).
Melancholy Jaques
@JiveTurkin:
It’s hard to penetrate the minds of bigots. Their commitment to white supremacy is down deep in their identities. People deny that it’s the controlling consideration because they have no useful response to it.
Aziz, light!
@Suzanne: Same as in every election about this time. We have to wait for the urban votes to come in.
Omnes Omnibus
@me: Decision Desk HQ is designed to make quick calls. It has already had to reverse some tonight. I wouldn’t rely on it.
RaflW
@Andrya: That’s basically what I just said to my BF when he read that to me. They are not ‘reporting news’ when they do that, they’re creating a false impression and it’s irresponsible as hell. G.D. it.
WaterGirl
@Andrya: Appreciate all that information. That the NYT would be irresponsible, particularly in favor of the orange oe, does not surprise me. It does, however, horrify me.
Aziz, light!
The Democrat election anthem:
When in danger, when in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout.
YY_Sima Qian
Made the mistake of peeking into the NBC live coverage, and I could feel my heart rate & blood pressure rise w/in minutes.
I think I will focus on work for the rest of the day, it would be good for my health for a change.
Kristine
Seeing unfamiliar ‘nyms spreading doom. Feeling a little like July.
Dman
https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864?s=19
Twitter link but interesting story out of Nevada
Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:
“It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”
WaterGirl
@Tenar Arha: Yes, you were matched!
LadySuzy
@Quinerly: I’m old enough to remember that everyone was saying that the growing Latino population would make states go bluer.
frosty
I’m signing off for the night. I’m disappointed we didn’t get the Harris blowout I was hoping for, but as far as PA is concerned, few of the mail-ins have been counted yet. Yes, many of the rural counties are 75% R at the moment, but they always are. If we hold it to 65% in my county, we win.
A little too much hand-wringing for me here. See you in the morning when more votes are counted.
Omnes Omnibus
@Suzanne: I will reiterate.
Sister Golden Bear
@Omnes Omnibus: For those of us on the West Coast, any chance we’ll know WI result sometime late tonight Pacific time?
Anotherlurker
EZSmirkzz
Hard to imagine that it takes four years to hold an election, four hours to project the winner, and four minutes to assign the blame for the losing.
I think everyone needs to drink another Budweiser and think about it some more.
To think some people have the temerity to say we live in the stupidest fucking country on Earth.
WaterGirl
@Suzanne:
You do know that everything depends on which votes are already in and which aren’t, right? Without knowing the location of the votes that are in and the ones that are not, numbers like that tell us absolutely nothing about the outcome.
Lyrebird
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks Omnes! Over on DKos, where there’s a bit of a doomer convention going on in comments, someone did report that the NY needle had GA going R until the last minute when Senator Ossoff and his amazing colleague Senator Warnock were elected.
Thanks, that is what I thought I remembered. drum lines in Philly and voting lines in GA…
Spanky
I got a thank you email from Angela Alsobrooks, so that was nice.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sister Golden Bear:
Probably another 5 or 6 hour for Milwaukee to be done.
YY_Sima Qian
So glad to see Senator Andy Kim!
Subsole
@frosty:
Sleep well.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I can’t believe Issue 1 and Brown lost
piratedan
just find it incredibly depressing that so many Americans are okay with a convicted felon running the country again and that J6 will not be punished.
frosty
@Aziz, light!: And mail-ins for PA. They’re very late. I’m going with the Philly mayor saying turnout has been incredible.
WaterGirl
Ridnik Chrome
To all the doom and gloomers: Does anybody here really think that if You Know Who wins, it’s going to be Game Over? It won’t be. Nobody is seriously suggesting he’s going to win the popular vote. He would be starting out his term with widespread disapproval, and it would only get worse. Seriously, if he wins, this time next year, his approval ratings will be in the high single digits. Nobody will admit to voting for him. And he won’t be able to do most of what he says, because people will fight him. There are more of us than there are of them, and I know we’re not going to just roll over. Even if he wins tonight, he’s still gonna lose in the end.
But you know what? He’s not gonna win. We’re gonna pull this out.
Quinerly
@Omnes Omnibus:
THANK YOU. MUCH APPRECIATED.
Spanky
@Kristine: Yeah, looks like Vlad found enough change in the couch to fund a few extra trolls.
frosty
@Dman: Funny, I look at my youngest’s signature and think the same thing. “This looks like 3rd grade cursive! Practice on one until you like it!”
Kelly
We put up enough fence to contain 5 month old Daisy on our 2 story back porch. Each level is 12×16 plus the stairs. It gives her a nice space to hang around in. She loves the view from the top level. Here’s what we see every time we come home.
https://bsky.app/profile/northsantiam.bsky.social/post/3laanpfxh4y2m
Lyrebird
@Quinerly: Uh, can we maybe not sound like the other side? And what about the Puerto Rican men and women in PA and NY who have been GOTV for Harris?
Omnes Omnibus
If you won’t listen to me, listen to Obama.
Shalimar
@LadySuzy: If the growing Latino population would recognize how much Republicans hate them, that would be true. For some reason, many of them ignore all of the anti-immigrant and anti-birthright citizenship rhetoric even though it is obvious they are the targets.
I’m guessing 30% of Jews in 1932 Germany weren’t stupid enough to vote for Hitler. Fascists need an other to hate. The other isn’t supposed to vote for them.
Quinerly
@LadySuzy: me too.
SectionH
@dmsilev: To me it’s more that a great story could have been made about lesser-known characters, which could have been able to use the context of the Silmarillion major events as background, but not changed characters like Artanis… yes Galadriel, but it was Celeborn who called her that – and where was he?
J. Arthur Crank
@Ridnik Chrome:
To be fair to the doomers and gloomers, it is closer than it should be. However, I agree with you otherwise.
Elizabelle
Eugene Vindman wins Virginia’s 7th; Abigail Spanberger’s district. Speaking now.
ETA: just introduced his less handsome twin.
frosty
@Subsole: Not quite yet! I have another Old Fashioned to finish and then more of Rain Dogs by Adrian McKinty. The protagonist is a Catholic cop in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. So a bit calmer than here!
Seeker
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Brown is very surprising to me…it doesn’t make anything better but I’ve enjoyed reading your comments here and wish you the best
Ohio Mom
@Aziz, light!: Thank you for that chuckle.
Josh Marshall remarked earlier that maybe surprise of this election will be that the polls were right after all. I’m holding on to that thought because the polls showed a (admittedly narrow) win for Harris.
tam1MI
According to the NYT, California just came in for Harris.
hueyplong
@Elizabelle: Important win for House control. Can’t afford to give up seats when the overall necessity is to gain.
Ohio Mom
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Fuck. I had a lot riding on both Brien and the glimmer of fair districts.
Quinerly
@Shalimar: well said.
Omnes Omnibus
Big picture: Given the counties reporting so far in WI, MI, PA, and AZ…and the counties (mostly urban areas/suburbs) lagging/still to report, Harris is in good shape to win those four swing states and finish with 281 EV. Losing GA + NC would be irrelevant. #election2024
Eolirin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I cannot find anyone credible calling that race yet. But it’s not looking great, no.
YY_Sima Qian
Heh:
Kelly
@piratedan: Mrs Kelly agrees with you. I mean I agree to but I can’t cheer her up. Our cat Martin is having some success mending her spirits..
Peale
@YY_Sima Qian: there were still a lot of undecideds in that poll. But she was off by quite a bit. Still, there were 9% undecided. I was hoping more would break for her.
J. Arthur Crank
@tam1MI: I think Steve Garvey was sent packing also too. Both events (Harris winning CA and Schiff winning the Senate) are the least surprising development of the day.
RaflW
Ohio goddam.
Moreno has (apparently) been called the winner over Sherrod Brown.
japa21
One thing I am noticing is a lot of ballot splitting in some of the states. Not to Harris’ advantage.
Ohio Mom
@Ridnik Chrome: If Trump God forbid wins, sorry, next year we will have President Vance. Who will be worse. But I think you are right that there will be a gigantic backlash. The pendulum will swing.
Kyle Rayner
@Kristine: Been thinking the same.
kalakal
Look at where the votes are yet to come. This is a long way from being time to panic.
RinaX
Ridnik Chrome
@J. Arthur Crank: As a Cubs fan, I take extra joy in Garvey’s loss.
J. Arthur Crank
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks for that.
Kelly
@tam1MI: Oregon will join CA and WA momentarily
K-Mo
Home from poll working and watching a slow stream of bad news. We’re not out of this yet but we need PA. Cmon Philly turnout and late breakers!!!!
Eolirin
@RaflW: Not by AP, NBC or NYT. So I think that one’s not done just yet.
I’ll admit it doesn’t look great though.
JiveTurkin
Unless Harris does very well on the mail in ballots she’s in pretty deep trouble in PA. At this point she’s down by 175k with 72% in. She needs to win the remaining vote by about 9 points, 54.5 to 45.5.
gwangung
Doing a lot of whistling past the graveyard.
Sigh.
hueyplong
@Ridnik Chrome: As a Giants fan, I take even more pleasure in Garvey’s loss. I would say that the mere fact of his nomination shows that Republicans are not serious in California, but in truth they’ve nominated even worse people elsewhere, most obviously at the top of the national ticket.
Quinerly
@Lyrebird:
I’m just following what’s happening in counties in PA populated by large Hispanic populations. Trump has made significant inroads in the Hispanic vote.
SectionH
I just got a text from my son (very grown up, I’m a grandmother) who is worrying. Mr S is the optimist in the family, and I’m doom and gloom, but even I am not giving up yet or freaking. It looks like taking longer than we’d hoped, but yeah.
Starfish
@Quinerly: We have not yet learned to quit blaming small groups for the behavior of the vast majority of white men, have we?
Almost Retired
@Omnes Omnibus: Right. Isn’t that where we thought we’d be before the doom of July or the giddiness of this week? We are back to a super close election, whether it makes any sense to any of us or not. And even losing AZ would still put her at 270. I prefer an electoral college blow out, but I’ll take 281 or 270.
Ksmiami
@Quinerly: misogyny I’m afraid
Melancholy Jaques
@Quinerly:
My sense is that they don’t want to vote for a woman for president. There isn’t a thing we can do about that.
Ksmiami
@Almost Retired: I think that’s not going to happen.
Peale
@Starfish: yep. Oh, and there were plenty of white women once again expecting that voting in favor of abortion then for their GOP rep and senator.
Eolirin
@JiveTurkin: If the majority of the outstanding vote is in Philly and Pittsburg, she should do better than that.
RaflW
@Eolirin: Bigger picture, the red states have gotten redder. The sorting and dividing will create untenable tensions. I can’t cope with this country being this OK with fascism, that the vote is this close overall, and the Senate will be a shit institution. Maybe Americans will be revulsed by what a Cruzificated senate does.
But our information environment is so bad, people won’t understand why their lives are getting suckier. I’m incredibly sour on this country tonight.
RinaX
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think that’s what will happen.
Ksmiami
@Melancholy Jaques: exactly that. Also, they think they’ll be spared when Stephen Miller gets going on his purge lists
Quinerly
Sherrod loses in Ohio. This really hurts.
Seanly
@Omnes Omnibus:
I was hoping for more in the EC but I would be perfectly happy with this outcome.
Shalimar
@Starfish: I accepted a long time ago that white men are awful. It’s finding out other people are awful too that is the new disappointment.
Melancholy Jaques
@Omnes Omnibus:
My memory is blurry, but I feel like we went through this with PA in 2020. I remember talking my girlfriend off the ledge.
RaflW
@Peale: Seriously. Around 57% of Florida voters wanted to protect abortion. And the same pool of voters will vote about 56% for vehemently anti-abortion Trump.
It boggles the mind.
Melancholy Jaques
I can’t spend any more time on tenterhooks. I am going to bed early and will check back in the morning. Please try to be kind & understanding to each other.
Quinerly
@Starfish: I am just following how the vote is being analyzed. Perhaps it’s better to blame people who voted against their interests.
Planetjanet
Col. Vindman just took the stage and declared victory for VA-07. It is a glorious night and well worth all the work and treasure. I have never been so proud of a candidate that I have volunteered for. Truly a man of honest, integrity, compassion and perserverance. We need more like him in Congress.
K-Mo
@RinaX: Give us MI. Then we need PA and either WI or AZ.
japa21
@Omnes Omnibus: I tend to agree with that assessment. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I know Trump had an extremely big lead in PA in 2020 and it slowly got whittled down. I expect the same thing here.
Omnes Omnibus
@Melancholy Jaques:
And Wisconsin came through late as well.
Steve in the ATL
@Ohio Mom: Nach trump kommen Wir!
Mai Naem mobile
Sherrod Brown loses to a used car salesman. Such an apt description of this whole election.
karen marie
@Jackie: Well, that’s great news!
hueyplong
@Melancholy Jaques: My wife isn’t on the ledge because she is too depressed to get there. Contemporary presidential politics is playing hell with our radically different optimism levels (a bit too much in me, zero in her).
PsiFighter37
Maybe this election wasn’t winnable. There will be a lot of second-guessing but at this rate, Shapiro on the ticket winning PA wouldn’t have made a difference. I think there’s a lot of trailer trash out there that is willing to bring itself out to vote for the likes of people like Donald Trump and Jim Justice. As someone who is a citizen by birth but was born overseas, who grew up believing all that was taught about American exceptionalism…this is a truly humbling experience. And one that, as soon as I can afford it professionally, financially, and otherwise, I will leave behind. If the poor white people of this country want to vote to fuck themselves even harder, at the expense of sticking a middle finger at people of color and LGBT folks…it won’t be ruining my day.
Electing a traitor to be president is just un fucking believable.
JiveTurkin
@Eolirin: Pittsburgh is 90% in, Philly is 69% in. She’s down by 170k, it is getting class to mathematically impossible. Unless the mail-in ballots are overwhelming for Harris I don’t see it. Do they count them at the end?
RinaX
Sherrod Brown being gone means the Senate effectively comes down to Tester. Not what I wanted.
Eolirin
@Quinerly: The more credible places do not seem to have called that race yet for some reason. The places with outstanding vote seem to be breaking for Brown by a lot, but that’s a sizable margin to overcome too.
sanjeevs
@RaflW: I think you hit the nail on the head with the information environment.
I dont think its appreciated just how much worse it’s become just in the last 4 years.
Twitter bought by Musk and turned into a Maga site.
Facebook shut down their access to even see the top 10 pages every day last year, likely because they would show how they were getting even Trumpier.
CNN bought by John Malone.
New media sites like Vox being shuttered.
CBS-Paramount has now been bought by the Ellisons. (Trumpers)
Ridnik Chrome
@RinaX: He’s not gonna be a dictator, no matter what anyone thinks. If he tries shipping his political opponents off to Gitmo or wherever, there will be a civil war, and he doesn’t have the stones for that. Neither does Vance or anyone else on his team. They’re cowards and if push comes to shove they’ll fold faster than Superman on laundry day.
Eolirin
@RinaX: No, it means we’ve lost the senate.
Sister Golden Bear
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks. I probably won’t be able to sleep, so I may still be up when they finish up.
Tenar Arha
@WaterGirl: 😁 I’m so pleased. Thank you for organizing this.
kalakal
@RaflW: locally (Pinellas county) I’m so upset at Fox & Beckman losing.
Subsole
@Quinerly:
Sleep well.
YY_Sima Qian
@Shalimar: Misogyny, racism, xenophobia, anti-LTGBQ, authoritarianism, religious fundamentalism, & reactionary tendencies are not just the exclusive preserves of white men, but human conditions common to all of humanity. I mean, just look at the rest of the world.
If the reactionary forces in the US were not so forward leaning w/ their specific brand of white Herrenvolk ethnonationlism, they would have even greater success.
Omnes Omnibus
Update from City of Milwaukee Central County: Final tally of absentee ballots is 108,325. As of 10:17 central, these ballots are NOT in the unofficial results you are seeing. The results of those ballots will be released when all are scanned. Hopefully close to midnight??
Subsole
@JMG:
Good night. Sleep well.
Catch you on the other side of the morning.
Lily
Though I de-subscribed when Lewis came in, the Post’s election ‘dashboard’ gives a sense of the volatility (if that’s the right word). Shows swing states’ reported vote counts for each county or county group as the most recent numbers come in, & what % remains to be counted, & what % of the remaining unreported votes is needed if the current leading candidate is to prevail. (This shows how/when the lead changed over.)
Some of those tinted maps on other sites are very misleading. The Post’s ‘can’t call yet’ states are different.
Goes w/o saying that the various R efforts to slow the count leave the true counts unknown. For ex, Rs in certain states (incl in PA) have tried to de-register overseas ppl, which can be corrected but will take time before their votes can be counted.
Fwiw.
WaterGirl
@gwangung: I expected more from people here.
RaflW
JFC.
(Sorry, Kay. I know good and decent people live there. I’m not saying to write off anyone, but damn, there’s a lot of shitty voters in Ohio).
japa21
@JiveTurkin: She could make that up with just the outstanding votes in Philly.
Ohio Mom
@Ksmiami: I have been surprised that there has been so little discussion on misogyny in this election. I have always thought it the elephant in the room (no pun intended but it works anyhow).
Mai Naem mobile
karen marie
@Leto: Hallelujah!
This is the only place I am looking to for election results. I appreciate everyone who is posting solid good news!
Eolirin
I think it’s extremely likely that we lose the senate, regardless of whether Harris pulls out a narrow win.
That’s depressing in and of itself.
Subsole
@Aziz, light!:
It’s my nervous breakdown, I get to choose the coping mechanism! 😉
Ksmiami
@Ohio Mom: this country is pretty backwards tbh
Noskilz
It’s not over until it is over, but I think that us being in this situation at all of being in dreadful suspense despite Trump being a flamboyantly unfit monster who has spent years demonstrating his unsuitability really sheds some uncomfortable light on the Fermi Paradox.
the eradicator
This reminds of 2018, give it a few hours.
Ksmiami
@Eolirin: I think she’s pretty much lost. Ah well
kalakal
@Ohio Mom: I think you’re right,
Citizen Alan
@Quinerly: White supremacy and Christian nationalism are ‘interests.” Why don’t more people understand that?
Subsole
@Ridnik Chrome:
I think the concern is that, by the time enough people have realized just how atrociously they have shit the bed, the people behind Trump will have made it damn near impossible to reverse anything. Plus, just, y’know, sadness at all the havoc we needn’t have endured.
That said, your encouraging words are welcome and appreciated.
HumboldtBlue
@Starfish:
Nope, it appears we have not.
Subsole
@frosty:
Lol! Sounds like you got it figured out, man.
Probably gonna rack out in a bit myself. Try to sleep. I will deal with tomorrow tomorrow.
Mai Naem mobile
@Jackie: i don’t understand why anybody would vote for Kari over Gallego. She has no qualifications. She was a freaking newsreader. She’s never even served on a school board or an HOA board. Gallego had been in the US House and served in the Marines. Went to Harvard. There is no comparison.
Quinerly
@Starfish:
Trump has “huge” gains with Hispanic voters in NY and NJ.
Source: Kornacki and his maps on MSNBC
Eolirin
@Ksmiami: We don’t have enough data to know anything other than that the must win states are going to be very close.
Being pessimistic or optimistic about it doesn’t change the fact that the outcome, as of this moment, is unknowable.
We’ll have a better sense of reality sometime tomorrow.
wjca
No a surprise. Except.
I’ve been a poll worker. Polls close at 8 PM here. Just the basic admin stuff (e.g counting the number of ballot papers; not votes, just pieces of paper), straightening up the room, etc., routinely takes most of an hour. Which is to say, we aren’t there yet for any in-person voting. Then the ballots get taken to a collection point. From which they still have to be taken to the county seat to be actually counted.
In short, at most they’ve got a few precincts worth on in-person votes. They will have the early voting and mail ballots. But nobody has a long enough baseline to know how voting patterns for those compare to the eventual totals. In short, it’s a call for assumptions, not from actual ballots counted.
RaflW
Dammit. Fuck. (I know, it’s not needed for Harris to win the WH. But for fuckity fuck’s sake, it says way too much about how shitty my fellow Americans are.)
West of the Rockies
@Ridnik Chrome:
I concur. Well said.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
No matter what happens, I just want to say it’s been a real privilege being apart of this blog for the last 7 years or so (longer if counting my time lurking, probably 2011ish or 2012), connecting with people and making a real difference
karen marie
@karen marie: I take it all back! I should have stuck with The Rest Is History. I’m up to the episode about 1066 England. It’s a terrific podcast. They put history in context of both then and now.
I’m thinking maybe I’ll just get on a Trump deportation bus.
Subsole
@RaflW:
Not, I hate to say, without ample justification.
But, what is done is done. And let’s wait until it is, in fact, done before we decide what to do.
Mai Naem mobile
I don’t want to sound like a gloom and doomer but I’m upset. I don’t remember it being this bad in 2020. 2016 I think I was just in a combination of shock and denial. I can’t deal with 4 years of this asshole and you know its not going to just be 4 years.
AM in NC
@Starfish: We have a winner!
Suzanne
@Mai Naem mobile: I think you are right. The cost of housing has absolutely shot up all over the country and that is most people’s largest bill.
Ksmiami
@Eolirin: it seems pretty insurmountable- I wish I was wrong but I guess Americans need to keep learning the same dumb lessons over and over
Omnes Omnibus
FWIW, this is shaping up to look just like 2020. We didn’t know the result until Saturday that year.
SiubhanDuinne
Kamala has won VA
Ksmiami
@Mai Naem mobile: he’s going to age out pretty quickly-
SiubhanDuinne
But TCFFG took NC
prostratedragon
@Ohio Mom: I’ve been hypothesizing many of the differentials we’re seeing from 2020 as the misogeny discount.
mvr
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Hey. Thanks for that. I’m feeling a bit scared and glum, even without yet knowing exactly what will have happened today. So I kind of needed that comment, just because of its tone, even though I don’t feel like I’ve contributed much here.
tam1MI
I can’t believe that Adam Schiff and Hillary Scholten vaporized my primary vote for this.
Hoodie
@Quinerly: I’m beginning to think Harris is getting hit by the same force that derailed HRC – misogyny.
Quinerly
NC called for Trump.
Am I allowed to blame White women?
Quinerly
@Hoodie: me too.
Ksmiami
@Quinerly: yes
Ohio Mom
@Steve in the ATL: Made me chuckle.
JiveTurkin
I wish I were wrong about this, but I’ve been looking at PA so long I forgot about WI and MI. WI is basically over, she has no real path to win. Down by 80k votes and the only Democrat area with any substantial amount of votes is Milwaukee and it won’t make up the margin. Unless they count mail-ins late it’s over.
Westyny
Josh Riley (D) has a 6K vote lead in NY-19 with about 31k votes left to be counted. 91% in. A pickup if it holds.
hueyplong
@RaflW: I was never as optimistic about NC (where I live) as I was about the other 6 swing states. It’s probably because I’m in a reddish area and pass through even redder ones on drives. Obviously nothing scientific or intelligently quantifiable, but it’s really a one-party area, which of course the South itself was back before the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. NC’s cities are going to have to get bigger before the state can flip, and it would help if so many of the transplants weren’t from GOP-heavy western NY.
I can’t blame the campaign. My daughter moved to Seattle after the 2020 election and during these last two weeks our phone rang over 100 times from each of NC’s 10 area codes with callers asking if she was home because they could tell she hadn’t voted here.
Maxim
@Hoodie: Agreed.
Omnes Omnibus
@JiveTurkin:
Guess what?
Chris
@sanjeevs:
I’ve been saying for years that I have never seen the mainstream media as bad as it’s been since 2021. They’ve acted like this before in presidential election years like 2000 and 2016, but that was election year. This decade, they’ve decided to make it permanent. Any Democrat who somehow makes it to the White House gets the Butter Emailz treatment, all the time, on every possible issue.
Add to that the fact that social media has become a right wing puke funnel to a degree that wasn’t true even in 2020, so while politicians like Obama were able to use it to some extent to counteract MSM tendencies, it now just reinforces them instead, and yeah. You’ve got where we are now.
The media environment has more to do with how we’ve gotten where we are now, by far, than any other factor.
cain
@RaflW:
Ohio has decided that they want more of it. Not much you can do about that.
Maybe one day they will see the light.
West of the Rockies
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I will sign on to that, Goku. Whatever happens, we will continue on, fight back, laugh and cry together, laugh and dance, and carry on. It ain’t over until it’s over.
JiveTurkin
IMO Harris ran an almost flawless campaign. Trump shit the bed the last two weeks, is completely incoherent and is a rapist, but what-the-hell, let’s make him president. In less than two years Vance will be president.
SectionH
@hueyplong: possibly because she’s female?
Sorry, that’s not a very nice first comment to a Jackal I really respect. Because I do.
JiveTurkin
Any chance for PA seems to be slipping away. I think she’ll lose the entire blue wall, and I can’t imagine what she could have done differently.
Westyny
@Chris: Agreed. It’s become apparent that it was always an uphill battle battle. Remember, in the “heartland” Fox News and rw talk radio are the default media channels. Throw in Sinclair and Gannet controlled media and it’s a suffocating blanket.
JiveTurkin
@Chris: MSM might be a symptom, but it’s the people. How can a woman vote for Trump, he’s a rapist. How can any Hispanic vote for Trump based on his body of work. Black males voting for Trump? Boggles the mind.
Geminid
I’ll tell you what. White Male privildge is a real thing.
I bet my White Male demographic did more for Trump this election than any other. But for months I’ve seen people here pre-blaming White Women for a Harris loss. Now it’s Hispanic Americans who are being scapegoated.
I have my own share of racial resentment just like I have my own share of misogyny. And I understand how someone’s resentments can come out in a crisis because that’s how people are. But people are holding an entire group of their fellow citizens– and fellow humans– to blame for a Harris loss that still is not even certain, and I think that is wrong whether Harris wins or loses. It’s a bunch of crab-bucket crap.
And what about the Hispanic Americans who voted for Harris? How are they at all inferior to someone who would applaud their deportation. It seems more the opposite to me.
cain
@Mai Naem mobile:
Sticker shock everywhere honestly but Trump is not going to be able to solve it. How they think that doddering incurious idiot can actually solve their problems is behind me.
kalakal
@Omnes Omnibus: Thank you for pointing that out. That’s how I see it
Lyrebird
@Westyny:
Oh I hope I hope I hope… sent a dozen or so postcards to get people to #bygoshvotejosh
Another bit of light: Prop 1 passed in spite of the hate-mongering campaign
RinaX
Well, what are our chances when it comes to the House? That may be our only ray of hope over the next four years. Alito and Thomas are gone in January.
Maxim
@Geminid: As a guess, people expect white men (and a depressing share of white women) to be politically awful. It’s more surprising when people who have been so clearly Othered by the GOP nonetheless support it.
Ksmiami
@cain: that’s the funny part- all that is going to happen is Trump and the GOP will reduce and eliminate all the programs that help people
mvr
Bits of light from Nebraska when I’m feeling very scared but am going to try not to make people feel worse:
Vargas has a substantial lead in NE02 with over 80% reporting according to NPR.
Harris seems to be in line to win that blue dot as well. I drove two Harris voters to the polls today and spend a week of afternoons making phone calls there, so that at least makes me feel a bit better.
Both the good (439) and the Bad (434) Abortion initiatives are winning with 65% of the vote counted and are trading the lead. They say the one with the most votes gets into the state constitution but I don’t know whether that has been fully determined by the courts.
Voucher repeal is going to win, as is Medical Marijuana, & Paid Leave.
Dadadadadadada
@J. Arthur Crank: Whales actually have tits, and use them for the usual function.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Easy, he promised them BS like “tarrifs” and they fell for it.
cain
@Ksmiami:
We have repeatedly warned people that so many programs are in danger.
I guess they have to go to really get people to understand that elections have consequences.
Never mind that women’s health is also on the line.. not sure how to communicate this .
Lily
SectionH
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Because they’re stupider than you can imagine.?
Geminid
@Planetjanet: That’s great news. Eugene Vindman was a good candidate and worked hard, and I look forward to his service in the next Congress. He and Suhas Subramanyam from the neighboring 10th CD will be two excellent additions to our state’s Democratic Congressional delegation.
I remember when Virginia Democrats sent three promising new Representatives to Washington. That was in 2018, when Elaine Luria flipped the 2nd CD down in Tidewater; Abigail Spanberger won the 7th and Jennifer Wexton took the 10th. They became part of the very talented House Democratic Class of 2018.
Next year, all three women will be out of Congress. Elaine Luria lost in 2022 and sadly, Jennifer Wexton must retire because of a grave illness. And Abigail Spanberger intends to be the first woman Governor of Virginia, and I pity the Republican who gets in her way.
Geminid
@Planetjanet: That’s great news. Eugene Vindman was a good candidate and worked hard, and I look forward to his service in the next Congress. He and Suhas Subramanyam from the neighboring 10th CD will be two excellent additions to our state’s Democratic Congressional delegation.
I remember when Virginia Democrats sent three promising new Representatives to Washington. That was in 2018, when Elaine Luria flipped the 2nd CD down in Tidewater; Abigail Spanberger won the 7th and Jennifer Wexton took the 10th. They became part of the very talented House Democratic Class of 2018.
Next year, all three women will be out of Congress. Elaine Luria lost in 2022 and sadly, Jennifer Wexton must retire because of a grave illness. Abigail Spanberger intends to be the first woman Governor of Virginia, and I pity the Republican who gets in her way.
Geminid
@Maxim: I understand that. But I’ve never believed in judging groups by their collective voting behavior, and I don’t believe in vengeful programs based on that.
Especially when they are directed at demogragraphic minorities. That can be be patronizing at best and at worst, flat out racism
But hey. How’s the race in your Congressional district going? Looks like I’ll have Eugene Vindman as my next Representative.
wjca
For the average, comfortable, middle class American, their (conscious!) interaction with the Federal government is limited to filing their income taxes each year.** Full stop.
Try taking away stuff, and they’ll go berserk. But until that happens they won’t recognize that it’s the Feds doing it. Witness the “Federal government hands off my Medicare!” signs a while back. They don’t even realize that it’s a Federal program until it gets slashed.
If the Project 2025 folks get rolling, the good news is that the impacts will be big enough to get their attention, and will hit on Trump’s watch. That they will remember. Even as the carefully forget that they voted for him.
** So if Trump says he will replace income taxes with tariffs, obviously that’s a plus. They won’t see the impact until it happens.