I heard this a thousand times growing up. One of my mom’s frequent refrains.
If at first you don’t succeed, try try again.
But my mom also used to say that if you have to cheat to win, it’s not winning.
Unfortunately the orange anti-christ learned the first one, but not the second.
So the folks at Popular Information have teamed up with the More Perfect Union folks to create an election night guide for our 7 swing states – so we can be prepared for how the vote totals will fluctuate as the night progresses.
But let’s build on this.
Maybe we can think of this as hurricane prep. (Or tornado, earthquake, flood, depending on where you live.)
I bet that at least a few BJ peeps will remember what day each of these states was called – or the time it was called if it was called overnight on election night. Share your recollections below and I’ll add notes to the states.
Hell, I’ll even add notes to the states if you know useful information that was’t covered. Then, if it seems like we have a great collection of information I’ll post it again tonight, or put it in the sidebar.
Forewarned is Forearmed
Pennsylvania
Polls open at 7 a.m. ET in Pennsylvania and close at 8 p.m. ET. Election officials are required to wait until polls open to process mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania is typically slow to report votes due to the high number of mail-in ballots cast in the state. In 2022, “almost a quarter of the total vote” came from mail-in ballots. Since 2020, some counties have purchased new envelope opening machines to speed up the process.
The first reports released shortly after polls close will include mail-in ballots, and will therefore likely lean Democratic. Later reports will also contain votes cast on Election Day, causing the race to tighten. More mail-in ballots will be reported later in the night. If the race is close, it could take multiple days to determine the winner. In 2020, it took four days for President Joe Biden to be determined the winner of the state. Some counties to watch include Erie and Northampton, which both flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, the AP reported.
In 2020, Biden had a lead as early votes were reported. On Wednesday morning, Trump had gained a lead of “nearly 700,000 votes,” but Biden ultimately won the state as more mail-in votes were counted. In 2020, Trump used this to falsely claim election fraud. As a result, on election night most counties will now be required to announce “how many mail ballots remain to be counted in an effort to forestall conspiracy theories.”
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
geg6: it took 4 days for PA to be called in 2020. Expected to be shorter than that this year.
bleh: As to PA, I think (link) the counties may PROCESS mail-in ballots — open ’em, get ’em ready to be counted — starting when polls OPEN (7am), but they may not TABULATE them — generate results, or do any audits, etc. — until after polls CLOSE (8pm), so any mail-in results reported early will only have been generated starting at 8pm and therefore likely will be from smaller (red-leaning) counties or ones where glitches or challenges are unlikely. All of which is to say, PA early returns likely are vulnerable to multiple mirages.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, polls open at 6:30 a.m. ET and stay open until 7:30 p.m. ET. The State Board of Elections estimates that “about 98 percent of all ballots” will be “reported by the end of election night.” Because election officials in North Carolina can start counting mail-in ballots before the polls close, the state typically reports votes quickly, but the counting process may be slower this year in areas affected by Hurricane Helene. Legislators also passed a law requiring election officials to wait to count early voting ballots until after polls close, which could slow down the reporting process by around an hour. According to the State Board of Elections, “65 percent of N.C. voters cast their ballots during early voting” in 2020.
After polls close, mail-in ballots are reported. Early voting ballots are reported next, followed by ballots cast on Election Day. Because of this, it is likely that early reports will lean Democratic, but later reports will favor Republicans. In 2022, for example, Senate candidate Cheri Beasley (D) “had a lead of nearly 200,000 votes” half an hour after the polls closed, but by midnight, Republican Senator Ted Budd had overtaken Beasley with “a lead of over 150,000 votes.”
Some counties of interest include Nash and New Hanover, which both flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. Nash and New Hanover are expected to finish counting at 10 p.m. ET and 10:30 p.m. ET, respectively, the AP reported. If the election is close, the state may not be called on Election Day. After election night, election officials count mail-in ballots that arrived on Election Day, ballots from overseas, ballots from military voters, and provisional ballots. In 2020, it took 10 days to call the state for Trump.
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
jeff47: The official NC results will be posted to the NC election dashboard as the data comes in from the counties: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, polls open at 8 a.m. ET and close at 9 p.m. ET. Election officials in Wisconsin are not permitted to begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, causing the state to take longer to report results. Mail-in ballots, which usually lean Democratic, are often reported later in the night or early the next day.
Each Wisconsin municipality can choose to report its results differently, either reporting mail-in ballots at the same time as ballots cast on Election Day, or choosing to report them separately. Milwaukee, for example, reports mail-in ballots after it reports votes cast on Election Day. Some larger Democratic areas, like Milwaukee and Dane, often take longer to count votes. In 2020, Milwaukee reported “nearly 170,000 absentee ballots around 3:30 a.m.” local time. These ballots leaned heavily Democratic and put Biden in the lead.
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
Nevada
In 2020, Nevada was among the slowest states to count their votes. The AP did not officially declare Biden the winner in Nevada until just after noon on November 7, four days after Election Day. While the results are unlikely to be final by the end of Election Day, Nevada has made changes that state election officials hope will speed up the process.
While in 2020 counties had to wait until Election Day to start counting mail-in ballots, they were able to begin counting this year on October 21. Any early votes cast in-person will start being counted at 11 a.m. ET on Election Day, instead of after polls close at 10 p.m. ET. Finally, Clark County, which accounted for 69% of the state’s vote in 2020, has purchased additional equipment to help process ballots faster.
Although Nevada’s polls close at 10 p.m. ET, no results will be released until the last person waiting in line to cast an in-person vote has done so, which could be much later. Nevada also allows mail-in votes postmarked by November 5 to be counted up to four days after Election Day, further delaying final results.
In 2020 and 2022, when mail-in ballots were not counted prior to Election Day, Republican candidates looked dominant early on, but as the mail-in results were reported, their races became tighter and tighter. Now that the mail-in ballots are counted first, a blue mirage might be expected to replace the red one. But Nevada Republicans are voting early in large numbers, which could dampen the blue mirage effect.
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
Michigan
Because Michigan spans two time zones, most of its polls will close at 8 p.m. ET, while some others in counties on the state’s Upper Peninsula will close at 9 p.m. ET. The most important counties in determining Michigan’s final count — Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw — all close their polls at 8 p.m. ET.
Like Nevada, Michigan has also changed its election procedures to allow more time for counting mail-in ballots. Michigan towns with more than 5,000 residents can now begin counting ballots up to eight days before the election.
This change will also impact which candidates appear to be in the lead as results come in. In 2020, Trump started with a significant lead over Biden because in-person votes were reported first. But the mail-in results chipped away at that lead until Biden ultimately took over. This year, counting mail-in ballots early could lead to the opposite scenario, where Democrats seem to have the advantage initially, but lose it as more results come in.
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
Georgia
In Georgia, where early in-person voting is popular (state officials expect it to account for 65-70% of the vote total), election workers cannot start counting early votes until 7 AM on Election Day. These votes, as well as early mail-in ballots (expected to be about 5% of the vote) must be totaled by 8 PM, one hour after polls close.
The blue mirage from these early votes has been known to last for hours in Georgia. In the state’s 2022 senate race, Democrat Raphael Warnock held a 40-point lead for two hours until it dipped to less than a 1-point lead over Republican Herschel Walker.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Georgia by less than half of a percentage point, and the race was not called by the AP until November 19. Final results could be slow to materialize again this year. The state saw 21,000 requests for overseas or military absentee ballots, which Georgia will count up to three days after the election if they are postmarked by November 5. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by about half as many votes.
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
Arizona
In Arizona, polling locations will be open from 8 AM Eastern to 9 PM Eastern. The first batch of results, released around 10 PM Eastern, will include any mail-in ballots or in-person votes that were cast and counted before Election Day.
Once the early voting results are released, votes cast in-person on Election Day will be reported in the hours after polls close. The final votes to be counted and reported will be mail-in ballots dropped off too close to Election Day to be counted in advance. According to the AP, about 20% of mail-in ballots in Maricopa County, where most of the state lives, were dropped off on Election Day in 2020.
Typically, results from early voting and mail-in ballots favor Democrats, meaning Arizona results tend to see a blue mirage after the first batch of results is reported, which fades as the votes cast on Election Day are counted. In 2022 for example, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly started election night with a 20-point lead over challenger Blake Masters, but that lead dwindled to five points as results continued rolling in.
Arizona Republicans, however, have voted early in larger numbers than in 2020, while Democrats’ numbers are down. This could mean that Arizona’s blue mirage doesn’t materialize this year.
Notes from the Balloon Juice Hive Mind:
LeftCoastYankee
I don’t know if it’s big enough point to include in the summary, but for PA, if you’re in line at 8 pm, you will get to vote.
Quantum Man
I am on pins and needles.
Gloria DryGarden
Who posted the link for ballot curing? Could you post it again on this thread?
It was Kirk, #200, thread called all we can do. For folks who want that link.
Mel
Thank you, WaterGirl. This helps a lot.
TBone
Tom Sullivan’s post at Digby’s place is also a good sword in this battle:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/11/05/out-before-dawn/
Short and to the point!
geg6
It took four days before PA results were called. I am told it should be quicker this year but probably not today.
rk
I was talking with my co-worker and telling her how anxious I was, and how so many times I’ve just wanted to throw up. I see the physical and mental deterioration of Donald Trump and feel I’m deteriorating along side him. I’ve wanted to shut everything off, but I can’t. My co-worker said she and others feel the same way. Whatever happens tonight I know millions of people will feel the same way. We’re all in this nightmare together (not that it helps).
RaflW
Maybe not needed, but a reminder that we should all resist the media notions of this or that candidate “pulling ahead” or “surging” or “falling behind” during the counting.
The votes will all be in when the tallies start being reported. This isn’t the Indy 500. We’re not watching a literal horse race where jockeys are eyeing each other and spurring their horse as we gawp.
Media do the race stuff to build excitement. What we need is to be supporting a calm and fair process, not a gripping drama of gladiators.
Wapiti
Two that I’ve heard:
If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.
If you get caught cheating, you’re not trying hard enough.
Kelly
Lyle Lovett performs Blaze Foley’s “Election Day”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1S1haSWJJVo
TBone
@rk: that feeds right into Putin’s preferred narrative. That’s what he’s pushing all over via the tankie left. Anxious and divided. I hope you can overcome that urge.
Omnes Omnibus
I just voted. My ballot has been counted. There is a plane flying over Madison pulling a banner saying “Trump will ban porn.”
ETA: No lines, but steady flow. Poll workers said it was very busy earlier from the before work crowd
TBone
@Kelly: 💙😍
bookdragon
Voted this morning in PA. I’m in the tiny corner of the neighborhood that wound up tacked onto district 1 so there aren’t so many of us at the local polling place, where most folks are district 5. Most of the time I walk in and at worst have one or two people ahead of me to vote. This morning there was actually a wait with a couple dozen ahead of me. And district 5 line was out the door and down the front of the building.
Haven’t seen that since ’08. Hopefully a good sign.
RaflW
This got an audible laugh from me.
TBone
Getting ready to make some cheese Danish the TBone way – fresh out of the oven puff pastry shells filled with Brie and assorted jams (cherry preserves, black currant, or apricot). Yum!
JMG
Straw in the wind? One of the members of my senior golf league said after our morning match, “I’m ioff to go vote. Voting for a Democrat for the first time in my life.”
TBone
@RaflW: 😎
TBone
@JMG: SWEET! Fuckin’ A!
WaterGirl
@Gloria DryGarden:
You can add that information here yourself – simply copy and paste from his comment in that post to a comment from you in this post. (And mention his name, of course, to be polite)
rk
@bookdragon:
I’m the same district. I always say that Fitzpatrick is stuck like a barnacle on our district. I have to go and vote in a bit. I always get confused at the long lines and then realize it’s not for me.
WaterGirl
@LeftCoastYankee: I think it’s true everywhere that if you’re in line by closing time, you get to vote.
What I don’t know is whether they can’t start counting until the last person in the last precinct has voted. Or if they can start when the clock hits 8 pm.
S Cerevisiae
Women are going to save this country today and this guy is grateful. I have had a good feeling about this election for a couple months now and everything is still lining up positive.
She’s got this.
WaterGirl
@Wapiti:
My mom would be appalled! I’m appalled.
bookdragon
@rk: Hi neighbor! lol
Yeah, sometimes I miss being in the little gerrymandered spaghetti strand that got Boyle, but better maps for everyone is worth it.
Marmot
I got it from the teevee, but I’ve found it helpful for the more frustratable Marmotine family member:
If a string is in a knot, patience will untie it. Patience can do many things, have you ever tried it?
@TBone: That’s my line! ;)
mrmoshpotato
If at first you do succeed, punch the Kremlin’s fat, orange, fascist, pussy-grabbing bitch in his fat, orange, fascist face with your vote time and time again until he’s finally dead, then get in line to piss on his grave.
WaterGirl
@rk: What do you do to calm yourself when you’re nervous about something? Whatever it is, do it in spades today.
You need to take care of yourself.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: We just voted. Short line. A kind of subdued atmosphere, TBH.
Kirk
@Gloria DryGarden:
As requested, Harris-Walz Voter Protection Phone Bank · The Democratic National Committee
WaterGirl
@RaflW: Maybe we can all help everyone to remember that.
#s mean nothing until a ton of the votes are in.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus:
I love that so much. I laughed out loud.
If you’re dumb enough not to know who you’re voting for my now, you might just find the message on the banner of a plane compelling. Maybe that’s just what they were waiting for!
Wapiti
@JMG: One hopes they like the results and make it a habit.
TS
@WaterGirl:
2008 Florida – they knew who had won while people were still in line waiting to vote for Obama. Showed the lines on TV, I’ve never forgotten that one – so presumably they were counting from when the polls closed. Perhaps it is by voting place – once they have no more voters they can count.
cain
from reddit on a thread about women’s health and why Harris must win and will win.
ETA, one more:
Marleedog
Who needs AI or LLMs when we have the Balloon Juice Hive Mind?
Well done.
I am trying to work outside in this beautiful sunny, warm autumn day, and not dwell on my angst.
mrmoshpotato
@TBone: You’re making me want to slap myself with some donuts.
suzanne
I feel sick and I can’t concentrate.
WaterGirl
@TS:
They knew who had won Florida and were announcing it at that point?
Or they knew that Obama had won even without Florida?
Capri
bbleh
As to PA, I think (link) the counties may PROCESS mail-in ballots — open ’em, get ’em ready to be counted — starting when polls OPEN (7am), but they may not TABULATE them — generate results, or do any audits, etc. — until after polls CLOSE (8pm), so any mail-in results reported early will only have been generated starting at 8pm and therefore likely will be from smaller (red-leaning) counties or ones where glitches or challenges are unlikely. All of which is to say, PA early returns likely are vulnerable to multiple mirages.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
Just in time for election day, the City of St. Louis is flooding. Whee! Good thing I and many others voted early. I hope its enough to give Hawley the boot, but I know that it isn’t likely.
TBone
@WaterGirl: PA starts counting when the polls open, 7am.
WaterGirl
@suzanne: Can you take a walk outside? Do a puzzle? Start listing words in your head, a is for apple, b is for ball, c is for cat – just to interrupt your brain from continuing to spin.
If we make spin ourselves into feeling sick this morning, it’s going to be a very long several days. Self preservation!
suzanne
@WaterGirl: No, I actually have shit I need to do. LOL. Like a job!
rk
@WaterGirl:
Actually in my real life I’m a very calm person and I’ve handled almost everything without falling apart. But the election has caused me anxiety which I’ve no idea how to deal with. I’ve tried to cut off social media, only partly successfully. I’ve been trying to cut off the media completely, impossible to do when your phone is always with you. But my work is a good antidote. I’ll vote, go to work and keep busy. So that helps.
TBone
@cain: Sally Field has entered the chat! Thank you for sharing that.
Today is
#SeeYouInRoevember
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/story/sally-field-illegal-abortion-1964-kamala-harris-endorsement
Kelly
No lines to vote here in Oregon. Voting lines are a choice.
Nelle
I just finished texting all the inactive voters in my neighborhood turf, after visiting some houses four times (many never answer the door). Now, to the important business of sorting my yarn stash. One thing about being an indifferent cleaner of all things in my house is that I can find many tasks to get me through the day.
My husband, a poll worker, left the house at 5:41am. I expect him to return after 9 pm. He’s 80. The Navy built him for stamina.
Nelle
A friend says that she joined a group called Kansas Women for Harris, when there were about 30 something in the group. It now numbers 33,000. Not everyone here in the prairie and plains states is rolling over for Trump.
WaterGirl
@suzanne: Well, then turn your brain to that! :-)
WaterGirl
@bbleh: Thanks, added up top!
TBone
My hubby, gawd love ‘im, has been shouting at random intervals all day 😆😍📣
Sometimes he even includes the eff bomb! He’s scaring the cats! 😆
WaterGirl
@rk: It is hard, especially when loads of information are being pushed – with exactly the goal of having us spin with anxiety.
Fuck those hateful people. I hope that being at work ends up being helpful for you.
TBone
@Marmot: well you’ll have to share, comrade 😉 as I am a commie pinko and have appropriated all such loot.
Kelly
How about all mail in voting with votes counted and counts published daily for a week prior to Election Day?
piratedan
I suspect Arizona may be faster today, we have a Dem Secretary of State who is not downplaying GOP shenanigans and the state is well versed with the methods used by the GOP to try and sow chaos here. It’s unlikely that they can effectively pull the same shit again and be successful, but who knows. The polling here is saying that DJT is slightly ahead of Harris here… possibly plausible considering racism and misogyny, but after all of the shit that has come down with the false elector slates, the election challenges and costs to taxpayers… who knows, DJT and Lake have been campaigning as if crime is up (it isn’t), the border is an open sore leaving the state awash in illegals roaming our streets (it’s not), that the economy sucks (not true) and leaning heavy on the Abortion is EVIL trope, hard to say what is exactly resonating. I’d like to say the good guys pass Prop 139 making Abortion ok and that essentially sinks both Trump and Lake and every other GOP candidate in a tight race.
TBone
@mrmoshpotato: 😆 don’t miss!
kindness
At what point are the citizens of the other 43 states going to demand that their vote counts just as much as those 7 swing states? I’m always pissed that the Electoral College makes my California vote almost meaningless and instead weights the votes of smaller states citizen’s votes to count more than my own for President. The EC has to be tossed aside. The presidency should be a direct popular vote so that all of our votes count equally.
raven
I guess it’s good that I received the MS diagnosis last month because I’ve had that to worry about.
TBone
@raven: hugs
TBone
@Nelle: your hubby is 😎 a badass.
Ella in New Mexico
My first takeaway from this post is this is why we need to get rid of the Electoral College’s impact on our elections.
The fact that everything comes down to 7 fucking states is bad enough, but that for any given state, your vote and mine gets completely cancelled out if the other side wins by other than a tiny fraction of + 1 is quite likely one of the top reasons why we never get more than about 45% voter turnout for Presidential elections this country.
frosty
geg6 is right. Pennsylvania was called Saturday morning, four days later. It was the Keystone State and how it went would determine how the election went. I expect it to take almost as long but I’m hoping the election is called earlier without us.
suzanne
@frosty: On that fateful Saturday morning, you may have seen me in my bathrobe, on my front porch, dancing and screaming.
WaterGirl
@kindness:
No kidding!
WaterGirl
@Ella in New Mexico: The Electoral College is fucked up.
frosty
So you’re saying that today is probably not the day to pay the bills and balance the checkbook?
MelissaM
Popping in to say, in the early 80s my then HS brother was in a community play where a character had issues remembering the “if at first you don’t succeed” adage. He kept saying “if at first you don’t fricassee, fry fry a hen.” So that’s what I remember. Never fricasseed in my life, but I’ve fried a few. Brain cells mostly.
Raoul Paste
@Nelle: I am very impressed with your 80-year-old husband. I sorely doubt that a certain 78 year old orange person could handle such a long and active day
Nelle
@TBone: He’s settled down a bit. I met him when he was a bush pilot in Alaska. He’d skim over mountain passes in the Far North, yelling “Piece of cake!” while I was a nervous Nelle. He still loves flying in fog. He’s Air. I’m Earth.
NutmegAgain
In other but related news, the Federal government in Germany just arrested a bunch of idiots from Eastern Germany who wanted to carve out a new Nazi nation. (I guess because the first, what, ~70 million people who died last time wasn’t enough?). Anyway, I wish our Federal government would move on Nazis here while they are still in the planning stage (Cough: Merrick Garland).
Marmot
@TBone: Intellectual property is also theft!
frosty
@suzanne:Go back and read comment #35. I’m trying to swear off hopium but the Iowa poll backs that comment up.Other than that? A walk or bike ride on the Great Allegheny Passage if you haven’t done that yet. The trees should be looking good and the sky is blue.
ETA: If it’s a work day, call in sick. I know, deadlines, etc, and not easy to do.
@suzanne: Rats, I was afraid that would be the answer.
H.E.Wolf
“Self-care is a radical political act.” – Audre Lorde
Originally a message from Lorde to Black women, but useful to all of us at the present moment.
I’m about to drag my exercise mat in front of the computer, and do the weekly Tuesday homemade exercise session on Zoom with one of my siblings.
We laugh a lot at our own antics… very healthful!
Melancholy Jaques
@bbleh:
What is the argument for doing it that way?
Quinerly
A very low energy Trump speaking at his polling place.
My hot take….he knows he will lose.
2liberal
Rethuglican rat-fucking in action.
Quinerly
@raven:
Hugs.
battlebornecon
For NV, don’t expect an early answer. Mail-In ballots post-marked today can be counted. Keep calm, and look to Ralson for info: https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853840308171374792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853841370055876992%7Ctwgr%5Ee4f2dbd438c78c54aa05591c593020aa55d2e0cb%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthenevadaindependent.com%2F
2liberal
Call in sick and start drinking.
Melancholy Jaques
@kindness:
That is a very good way to make the argument for getting rid of the electoral college.
TEL
I remember following the Pennsylvania vote counts for days after the election in 2020. No-one was calling the election until after Pennsylvania was certified – especially since Trump was suing over every swing state vote count except the ones he won.
frosty
@raven: That’s definitely a load to worry about. Hoping for the best for you.
Wapiti
@kindness: Or: perhaps we keep the electoral college, but require that each state’s electoral votes are divided proportionately to each of the various candidates.
The two senator votes give smaller states a boost.
The proportionality makes every vote in every state count.
Third party tickets can get electoral votes if they have good enough showings.
rk
@WaterGirl:
Thanks for your kind words. I’m off to vote and then work ( I took time off for voting). Keeping my fingers crossed. Thankfully no one talks politics much and we don’t have any crazy Trump supporters. Not possible when I work with a bunch of strong black women.
On a funny note, one black woman who I work with and who’s ex army said she’d personally like to “whup his ass”! You can’t mention Trump’s name in front of her. The way she describes him is better than any comedian.
Quinerly
@RaflW:
Love this. Big laugh from me too.
frosty
It’s what you’d expect. Republican legislature makes the rules.
rikyrah
@raven:
Sorry raven. I hadn’t read. Prayers to you.
suzanne
@2liberal: I just want to go back to bed. Went to the Harris rally last night at the Carrie Blast Furnaces, and got home after midnight!
MOAR COFFEE
sxjames
@raven: Oh wow. Hang in there!
UncleEbeneezer
Wow, what a courageous act of non-violent resistance by student Ahou Daryaei in Iran (the same atrocious govt that rules Hamas and Hezbollah).
Sadly she’s quickly been accused by people on the left of this being some performative pandering to the Western, Orientalist gaze etc. WTF is wrong with people? What a disgusting presumption. She could literally be put to death for this!
Josie
@raven:
How are things going with you? I understand that there are new and better treatments these days.
The Thin Black Duke
@raven: I’m sorry, Raven.
raven
@rikyrah:
@sxjames:
Thanks, I had my first “infusion” a week ago and it went pretty well. It’s supposed to slow it down!
@frosty:
@TBone:
Kristine
@raven: Damn. Hope you’re able to find a solid treatment course.
Melancholy Jaques
@UncleEbeneezer:
Discussion for another day, but we really need to drop the left/right thing. Our 21st century politics are too varied to be described so simply.
raven
@Josie:
@The Thin Black Duke:
Yea, this stuff is called “Briumvi” and it’s an initial treatment twice in two weeks then every 6 months.
thanks
Melancholy Jaques
@raven:
Sorry to hear that, man. Hoping for the best for you.
EarthWindFire
@mrmoshpotato: then get in line to piss on his grave.
But, first, buy from my beer truck. I’ve decided running a beer truck next to TFG’s grave is a worthy post-retirement career.
Anoniminous
@kindness:
Which is exactly why it’s not going to happen. Republicans don’t want every vote to be equal.
HumboldtBlue
I’d like to succeed in slapping the staffer at PG&E who decided election day was the best day to shut off power to a few hundred people to replace a power pole.
Ksmiami
@Melancholy Jaques: how I feel about this so called democracy…we are being held hostage by the worst people
Old Dan and Little Ann
Ballot cast. Success. 73 and sunny in Rochester. WTF?
Josie
@raven:
Ah. I googled it. Sounds promising. Hugs to you.
Anoniminous
@Marmot:
Pierre Proudhon: Property is theft
Pierre Proudhon: Property is freedom
Pierre Proudhon: Property is impossible
Emerson: Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
UncleEbeneezer
@Melancholy Jaques: The people I saw doing it are doing it with (very online) Leftist language. That matters to me. I expect Nazis to be assholes on this stuff. I expect better from Progressive Feminists. And I think it is hugely important that we take a hard look at the way Progressive/Leftist language, framings etc. can be weaponized to enable Fascism.
Sure Lurkalot
@Ella in New Mexico:
Well worth repeating in full. It is infuriating, discouraging and most certainly suppresses the vote.
While we’re ridding ourselves of undemocratic structures, let’s tackle the dark money problem, Citizens United and all its precedents. I hope we can say at the end of this day that Musk and his ilk’s money was all for naught, but these outsized amounts are a drop in the barrel of their barely/untaxed wealth.
KatKapCC
@EarthWindFire: I’ll do worse than piss on it.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: Shit, I missed seeing that. How are you doing?
EarthWindFire
@raven: thinking of you.
bbleh
@Melancholy Jaques: @frosty: not a clue why, but state legislators are not always the brightest bulbs on the chandelier, and some crazy-ass conspiracy theory — all dressed up in high-flown language about not biasing voters or something, of course — might have carried the day one day, especially if some of them wanted excuses to delay, challenge, ratfk, etc.
Good news is, we have a Dem Gov and a pretty no-nonsense SofS, so I’m cautiously confident that the inevitable pirate boarding-parties will be successfully repelled.
John S.
@NutmegAgain:
Regardless of who wins the election, we won’t have Merrick Garland to kick around any more.
raven
@Melancholy Jaques:
@Josie:
Thanks, at least I know what’s wrong with me.
EarthWindFire
@KatKapCC: so what you’re saying is I should also have a taco truck with plenty of beans provided. Done. 😜
Chief Oshkosh
@EarthWindFire: No fair! Why does everyone else always have the good ideas?!
Anoniminous
Turn-out in Philadelphia is exceptionally high, especially in black neighborhoods.
Gloria DryGarden
@suzanne: you’re making me think I ought to take some Rescue Remedy to keep myself calm…
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@2liberal: So now it’s the GOP that controls the weather? Seriously, we’ve had record rainfall in the last 24 hours.
Gloria DryGarden
@Anoniminous: can’t wait to see the turn out numbers!
zhena gogolia
@raven: Oh, I didn’t hear about that — that is a lot to deal with.
Melancholy Jaques
@John S.:
Maybe I am unduly optimistic, but I can’t wait until we are arguing about who we want for cabinet posts.
EarthWindFire
@Chief Oshkosh: I have the feeling I’d have a lot of competition tbh
Spanky
Just got a pic from my sister that shows what looks like the entire population of her PA township standing in line outside the polling station. I only see the backs of heads, but it looks like a shit-ton of women.
Citizen Alan
@kindness: I still say just amend the Congressional Apportionment act to increase the number of Reps to 1 per 100,000, as the Framers intended but never got around to passing the damned amendment. That would give us 3300 Reps + 100 Senators or 3400 total EVs. California (12% of the population) would go from 54 EVs (10% of total) to 330 EVs (12% of the total). And it could be done with an act of Congress, which means it would take control of Congress and the White House, and likely the abolition of the filibuster, but it’s still an easier lift than a constitutional amendment.
jonas
@UncleEbeneezer: There’s actually a really interesting history of women baring their bodies as an act of militant resistance or protest at violent inflection points like this. See Oren Falk, The Bare-Sarked Warrior: A Brief Cultural History of Battlefield Exposure (2015).
Melancholy Jaques
@Anoniminous:
No disrespect to you or to the challenge of getting rid of the electoral college, but I reject the idea that we can’t do things just because Republicans are against it. We have overcome them and we have worked around them. We can do it again if we make up our minds to do so.
Spanky
@frosty:
I’ve been removing lead paint (responsibly). Seems like a metaphor for something.
Gloria DryGarden
@JMG: so Sweet!
Every time someone says they’re switching to Kamala I feel a small uplift of exhilaration.
Gloria DryGarden
@Melancholy Jaques: amén
KatKapCC
@Melancholy Jaques: Well…sure, that’s a nice sentiment, but my understanding is abolishing the EC would require a Constitutional amendment, and that would in fact require some GOP support, unless we somehow manage a massive blue tsunami one day.
HumboldtBlue
@raven:
All the best in your treatment, hope this works out for the best.
catclub
@Melancholy Jaques: In this case, the National Popular Vote compact is a workaround.
Hard to get it done, but easier than replacing the EC via the Constitution.
Redshift
@Citizen Alan: Yes! Repeal the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929!
gvg
@kindness: Californias votes are really not meaningless….they just aren’t at this time in doubt. Try finding a democratic path to victory without those 54(?) EC’s. Its just like all the groveling we had to do for Mancine and Simena or before them during Obama’s time or Clinton for more the moderate centrist congress people, and what the republicans do to get the bomb throwing nuts wing of their party to pass raising the debt ceiling.
Swing states don’t have more vote counts than you. Small states like Wyoming do though since they get 2 Senators just like you and their tiny population still gets a Rep while you only get 54.
Weapon X
@Spanky: whereabouts in PA?
TEL
@raven: That’s rough! My mom was diagnosed more than 30 years ago but is doing well – she’s been very fortunate. Her initial attack left her in a wheelchair with no control over half of her body, but she recovered most of the function with the occasional relapse every few years. Is it too early in the process to know what type you have? Fingers crossed it’s similar to my mom’s situation!
Weapon X
@Anoniminous: source?
catclub
The worry warts say we will have to keep the already senate approved cabinet officers since a GOP senate will not approve ANY. I am not worrying about that yet.
TBone
@Marmot: don’t I know it! 😆
gvg
@raven: Whoa! I missed that news. Sorry to hear that. Need any help? Whats the impact on you likely to be, have you got that info yet? If you care to share. That’s a big distraction all right.
Jinchi
The good people of Dixville Notch decided to troll the rest of America.
catclub
@Jinchi: I saw that.
TBone
@Nelle: exactly 😎 the definition of badass!
HumboldtBlue
hueyplong
@Gloria DryGarden: “Every time someone says they’re switching to Kamala I feel a small uplift of exhilaration.”
Same here.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Jinchi: Last time, they went 5-1 for Biden. It’s going to be a long night.
SW
Nothing but exit polls and pundit farts
KatKapCC
@raven: So sorry to hear this. I’ve known a couple folks with MS and it is a difficult thing to contend with. I hope you’ve got all the support and care you need.
TBone
@HumboldtBlue: amen brotha!!! 💙💪
Anoniminous
Anecdotal evidence is women are breaking for Harris in NC big time. If Trump doesn’t win NC he’s toast. There’s no road to victory if he doesn’t take North Carolina. That’s why he’s been in NC over the weekend trying to keep his 1.34% (74,483 actual votes) victory.
And it’s now absolutely clear the ‘man-washing’ of Abortion by MAGAsshats and other Right Wing Pundits has failed. Dismally. From young to old women are stating Abortion is their number one issue.
And it’s equally clear we shouldn’t put too much faith in exit polling. Women who had to secretly voted for Harris to avoid getting beaten at home aren’t going to then go out and announce in public they voted for Harris.
jeff47
Long time lurker with some NC information.
The official NC results will be posted to the NC election dashboard as the data comes in from the counties: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results
Geminid
@Citizen Alan: It will still be a heavy lift persuading 218 U.S. Representatives to make their own positions one half or one quarter as as important as they are now. That will take a strong and sustained national effort, and right now this is just another idea that bandied about on political blogs.
lowtechcyclist
@RaflW:
It isn’t?? But where’s the post? Our candidates need to be the first ones past it, wherever it is!!
That’s how people keep telling me our elections work!!
/s
Booger
Anoniminous
@Melancholy Jaques:
Learn the procedure for amending the Constitution THEN come talk to me.
Hint: Republicans control 27 or 59% of all state legislatures.
Anoniminous
@Weapon X:
Democratic Party chair of Pennsylvania
Raven
@KatKapCC: Thanks!
UncleEbeneezer
@HumboldtBlue: Wow!! You love to see it :)
Raven
our hearts just sank…
we’re packing up in Pennsylvania.
Trump is drowning us, we’re almost out of money! One final shot: Generous donors who care about winning are 7X-Matching gifts to this text for 1 more hour. Can you rush $20
TBone
For anyone who missed it, Dick VanDyke’s short reading and endorsement are very freakin’ cool 💙
https://x.com/mylifeIMO/status/1853639242364137895
He’s a mensch who knows how to try, try again!
Another Scott
Thanks for the updates, everyone. I like the energy!
Meanwhile, Boeing workers end strike, accept a 43% wage increase over 4 years. Good for them, good for labor, and good for the economy.
Here’s hoping Boeing’s management gets their act together and lets the engineers and workers do their jobs again…
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
UncleEbeneezer
Nicholas Grossman: Kamala Harris Will Win (43 Other Things I Think About The Election)
Chris
@Ella in New Mexico:
The Senate should go, the Electoral College should go, and the Supreme Court in its current form should go. Those are the three worst antidemocratic features built into the Constitution, listed in ascending order of “how likely are they to go.” (Abolishing the Senate is an absolute nonstarter; abolishing the Electoral College is possible but very unlikely; reorganizing the Supreme Court is something that actually has some interest and, one can only hope, will happen in our lifetime).
TBone
@Another Scott: great news!
cain
@Kelly: There was car lines to the drop of boxes. :)
TBone
@UncleEbeneezer:
💙❤️🤍
I wish I could upvote that 1,000 times.
cain
@Ella in New Mexico: The only way we are going to get rid of the EC is if the GOP realize that they can no longer count on the EC to steal elections that we’ve built a machine that will fucking end kind of dominance they hope to have.
Weapon X
@Anoniminous: thanks. Just saw a similar story on InsiderNJ, which I had never heard of until now, that’s also something?
Peale
@Raven: I mean, come on. I’m glad they’ve spent all their money and they are Democrats so I know they spent it on campaign stuff and not themselves, but they really need to stop with the panic button or promising that they’ll crush donald trump and he’ll never recover.
JML
@Citizen Alan: I’ll be honest: as much as I want electoral reform and think the House should totally be bigger as an institution (and how we should be admitting DC and Puerto Rico as states), 3300 is too big.
Let’s go with the Wyoming Plan for the House (and resulting electoral votes).
Chris
@NutmegAgain:
Oh hey, I’ve seen that MacGyver episode! Back then what they wanted was five states in the Western U.S. “The Ten Percent Solution.”
Like so much of MacGyver, it was ripped from the headlines. There actually was talk in the white supremacist community at the time of leading a few U.S. states into secession. The problem is, the plan didn’t even get out the door, because it hinged on all the white supremacist militants in the country moving to those states in order to become an electoral force… and all of the militants in the other 45 states just went “why should we have to move? You move!”
(Ah, the good old days, when neo-Nazis didn’t have full control of one of our two political parties, and was considered so fringe they actually thought their best way out was to leave America altogether).
Also, fucking hell. It’s always East Germany, isn’t it?
TBone
It is fat and happy o’clock here 😆 I’m ready for my nappy.
Food coma might call for some early, ice cold champagne bubbles to cut through the fat in my veins. It always makes me giggle so I don’t want to pull that trigger too early in the day. Plus it might be better with crab stuffed mushrooms later.
Luxury problem!
WaterGirl
@jeff47: Thank you! I added your info up top.
I also approved your first comment, so all future comments from you will show up right away for everyone.
Joy in FL
@UncleEbeneezer: Thanks for that post (#162).
Another Scott
@raven: I’m sorry. :-(
I assume you’ve seen things like this study and know about the PACT Act and similar things.
Get all the help you can.
Hang in there, and best of luck!
Cheers,
Scott.
Raven
@zhena gogolia: I posted right after the diagnosis and got some great feedback. I don’t want to derail any threads with it.
Geminid
Proponents for doing away with the Electoral College had better hope this election is another nail-biter, because if Vice President Harris wins in a landslide this issue will become less salient. I’m not saying it should, but I think as a practical matter it will.
TBone
@raven: I remember when you first mentioned that and I hope that treatment truly helps SO much!!! ❤️
RevRick
@geg6: Early anecdotal reports from Philadelphia, Delaware and Montgomery county say there’s heavy, and possibly record-setting, turnout.
Me, I spent the morning getting in my 7,000 steps and picking up litter along the way. We’ll have three trash bags to put out for collection tonight.
Raven
@Another Scott: Yea, I went to the Neuro to explore an Agent Orange possibility and that was no go but it led to mri’s that resulted in the diagnosis.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: Plus, the nominal explanation for the need for it – to keep the unwashed masses from electing an incompetent demagogue – failed catastrophically with Tmurp.
It needs to go!!
Someone (sorry) argued that we need to get rid of the Senate. I disagree with that. We don’t want the full legislature potentially swinging wildly every 2 years. Having some continuity for 6 years makes some sense. But the filibuster/cloture system is broken and must be fixed.
Cheers,
Scott.
Raven
@TBone: tanks!
Citizen Alan
@gvg: This is true. If a miracle happened and Texas went blue, complaints about the EC would become a conservative hobby-horse rather than a liberal one overnight.
What would people’s thoughts be on outlawing winner-take-all in favor of proportional distribution of EVs? That, I think, is something that is also doable with an act of Congress.
geg6
@kindness:
Don’t blame me. I’m perfectly happy to give up swing state status. You have no idea how awful it is to be subjected to the shit they throw at us for months at a time. I’d be thrilled with a national popular vote.
Spanky
@Weapon X: Berks.
Gloria DryGarden
@suzanne: you and waterGirl are making me think of the advice I need to give myself, because I keep spinning, feeling unable to focus on anything.
There’s this thing where I spray myself with rose water, or lime, or some essential oil spray. But there’s also an exercise, name 3 things you see, 2 things you hear, and something you smell, or can feel. I need to do this all day, and quit checking to see if there’s any new news.
Joy in FL
@Gloria DryGarden: I had one Rescue Remedy today so far : ) I have a fresh tin available. (comment #118)
Dave
@Another Scott: Didn’t do a lot better with the other recent example good old “W” either.
Gloria DryGarden
@Citizen Alan: theres a multi state compact to do proportional distribution … once all the states in the compact have agreed to it. Colorado is one of them, I’m pretty sure.
TBone
I miss Janey a wee bit and so I’m posting her standing up to The Man today. She is a positive role model here in her glory:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fAulPWvWkus
stinger
@raven: Damn. All the best. If anyone’s a persevere-er, it’s you.
(Nevertheless, he persisted.)
Citizen Alan
@Geminid: I’ve always thought that was why the 1-Rep-per-100k (or whatever the original proposal was) failed. It was not a part of the Bill of Rights due to some technical screw-up, and by the time there was a serious push to get it passed, the 2-party system had become entrenched and no one wanted to rock the boat with an ever-increasing number of Representatives.
Gloria DryGarden
@Joy in FL: maybe I’ll add 5 drops to my water bottle… why didn’t I think of this before today?
cain
@raven:
oh no, Raven. I’m so sorry. :/
Belafon
@kindness: When South Dakota’s self-interests become more important than hating women, gays, blacks, immigrants, and anyone not an evangelical Christian.
Edited
geg6
@raven:
My BIL is on that. He’s done very well with it.
bbleh
@Anoniminous: The weather is just unbelievably perfect, and that always helps turnout. And apparently likewise across pretty much all of PA, very much including Pitt. So.
@UncleEbeneezer: from his keyboard to the FSM’s Galactic Monitor!
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@bbleh:
The ones I’ve dealt with back in Misery and here in Colorado generally follow that profile.
ArchTeryx
When the polls close, I will be taking a full 30 mg of THC and disappearing where the sun don’t shine for the remainder of the night. Wednesday I can start to deal with the fallout, one way or another.
stinger
@Another Scott: Looking at the circles under Kamala’s eyes in the Dorito photo, I think, “How lucky she only has to focus on a few swing states.”
Geminid
@Citizen Alan: Personally, I’m pretty happy with the House as it is. I want to see more Democrats and fewer Republicans, but I think we’ll get that out of today’s results.
Citizen Alan
@JML: It’s only too big if we expect them all to stay in DC. It’s the 21st century, and we’ve all just been through a 2-year-long experiment on whether most meetings can be accomplished by Zoom as well as in person. Keep 435 seats in the House, assigned proportionally to each party and by seniority within each party. Everyone will actually stay in their home districts and telecommute. And, you know, actually meet with their constituents from time to time! When was the last time any jackals here have actually been in the same room with your MOC?
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Raven:
I’ve been getting those matching donor texts for weeks now. I don’t even know if it’s a real organization or if it’s a scammer; I haven’t gone to the trouble of looking up the url.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Another Scott:
Boeing is just Example #3,459 of how the MBA-ization of corporate ‘Murka is fucking everybody.
Chris
@UncleEbeneezer:
Two thoughts about that.
One, while I’ve never exactly been part of that crowd, there’s one thing about the Che Guevara T-shirt types that didn’t occur to me until fairly recently, and it’s that despite their revolutionary pretensions, I literally can’t remember a single time when I’ve seen these people actually siding with the people in the streets protesting their dictator or kleptocrat and against the thugs in uniform assaulting them. Iran, no. Kazakhstan, no. Hong Kong, no. Venezuela, no. Ukraine, no. Syria, no. Libya, no. Egypt and Tunisia, there was some interest because they were actually pro-U.S. dictators, but then Obama announced he didn’t want them to stay after all, and they quickly lost interest. The narrative always ends up being about how the dictator is the innocent victim and the plebs in the street are secret CIA agitators. I think you have to go all the way back to Mandela and the ANC in the eighties or the Sandinistas in the seventies to find a popular anti-regime movement that these people actually supported.
Two, possibly joining with Melancholy Jaques’ post at 97, but I increasingly think “the left” is a misnomer when applied, in any capacity, to the “wears a Che Guevara shirt and thinks America is the focus of evil in the modern world” types. Which wouldn’t have been true in the eighties or even the very early twenty-first century, but at this point I think their migration across the spectrum is pretty much complete and they’re just part of the alt-right. They’re not even left-wing in the “Red Brown Alliance” sense, because that requires that there actually be a “Red” faction that has goals and leaders distinct from the “Brown” faction even if they’re currently allied. At best, they’re “left-wing” in the Mussolini sense: “yes, when I first got into politics, I was a socialist, but I quite all that foolishness and now I’m a fascist.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@raven:
Sorry you’re going through that. I hope you find a good treatment course
bbleh
@raven: that sucks; I’m sorry. Hope it’s a less-rapid type. And yes medications have advanced a LOT, thanks to better understanding of the immunological foundations.
FWIW, many MANY a year ago I woman I know who had progressed pretty far was able to recover to an amazing degree by going entirely gluten-free — and this was before gluten-free foods were at all widely available — apparently because she had an allergy and it was causing the type of immune response that exacerbated her MS. All of which is to say, depending on type and your doc’s advice of course, perhaps look into significant dietary changes.
Citizen Alan
@Gloria DryGarden: My understanding was that the compact was that each state would give all its EVs to whoever won the popular vote. Which I instinctively distrust for reasons I cannot articulate. As in, I don’t see how the GOP could manipulate this to screw us if it passed, but my heart tells me they could. Also, it’s an interstate compact, and there’s a strong argument that it’s unconstitutional (and certainly would be under this SCOTUS).
comrade scotts agenda of rage
https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation
Probably the only viable path to getting rid of the EC affect.
Anything we can do to get rid of that POS vestige of a slave-owning society, the better.
zhena gogolia
@Raven: Well, we’re here for you!
Betsy
NC Info: The big blue counties tend to report quicker, so you can see an overly blue result at first. Rural red counties may report more slowly and pull things back more favorable to Rs. However, this can be mixed, and a lot depends on local specifics.
I’m not sure what effect the mountain early vote will have – there are lots of red voters there, but also lots of progressives, and retirees or digital nomads from a variety of states of origin and background. Regardless, it is the “whitest” part of the state, FWIW.
If you are curious about % of precincts reported on news sites, you can always get more details by going to the NC State Board of Elections site and viewing for yourself which counties those early results are from. Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham (Durham), Orange (Chapel Hill), Pitt (Greenville), Buncombe (Asheville) will be some of the larger and bluest counties. Forsyth (Winston-Salem), fairly large but not particularly blue. Cumberland County is large and the home of the US Army’s Ft. Bragg (Fayetteville).
I’ve seen national news sites talk absolute nonsense about the early results of the evening in NC, when I can see for myself that certain key counties are not in, and things are likely to change out of proportion to the early raw numbers.
Bottom line: Take the NC results with a grain of salt until the state is fully reported.
Soprano2
@JMG: This is a data point in why I think knowing the registration of voters doesn’t tell you much in this election.
sdhays
I watched Colbert’s monologue from last night while I ate lunch, and it was the first time I had seen the extended context of Trump’s “going down on his mic”, and wow. He was whining about having to be there and talk to “you people” (his supporters) and how mean his campaign staff were for making him do 4(!) appearances in a single day.
“I’m human, right?”
No wonder no one wants to bother showing up for that shit
ETA: He was literally complaining about how hard it was to hold a microphone. It was “blowing out his arm”. By his own words, holding a microphone was wearing him out.
Soprano2
@WaterGirl: I heard about a group that’s been advertising that on porn sites that allow ads!
Gloria DryGarden
@rk: can you ground? Take rescue remedy in your water? Do 20 toe raises and 30+ knee bends? Breathe and notice anything that’s a resource, that feels good, that you can see, feel smell, or hear? I should do some of that, but I just get into a downward spiral, or frozen.
My friend tells me to do tapping on the points, like eft. Another friend always tells me to hold my fingers. You’d never guess which finger is the one for anger!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Citizen Alan: I agree it’s too big. The salaries and pensions on these people would be huge. I could see doing a rep for every 500K, rounding such that a pop of 750K gets you a second rep. The least populated state has a smidge more than that 500K. That would up the size of the house to more than 660 and downweigh the impact of the small population states.
Gloria DryGarden
@WaterGirl: will the link itself transfer as a live link? I thought of doing it, but wasn’t sure if the link would come over.
Soprano2
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I guess they’re getting the rain we had last night. Some parts of south central MO got over 6″!
zhena gogolia
@sdhays: Yes, it’s quite distressing.
Oh, but Biden stuttered in the debate!
Soprano2
@raven: Ooh, first I’ve heard of that. (hugs)
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Soprano2: Parts of St. Louis got over 8″!
Joy in FL
@Gloria DryGarden: Maybe it’s more needed today!
Gloria DryGarden
My pal in the ballot counting room in Denver tells me they scan in all the ballots, in Denver, but tabulating doesn’t start until today. And also, that ballot counting might go until the 14th.
Doctor Science
In Pennsylvania, CAMBRIA and BEDFORD Counties have had such problems with their voting machines that polling places are open *2 more hours, until 10pm*. Source: I’m on Ballot Cure with PA Dems.
raven
@Soprano2: I pursued the AO thing at your urging and I’m glad I did. Five years of not knowing what was wrong with me was a real drag. Off to the Y!
Weapon X
@Spanky: Berks was red by like 16,000 votes last time. Maybe that turnout means the vote this time will be bluer.
West of the Rockies
@raven:
Wishing you the very best treatment and state of mind.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
More on the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-how-america-could
Eolirin
@Citizen Alan: It is not doable via an act of congress.
It might be doable via enough individual acts of state legislatures though.
Sister Golden Bear
@Melancholy Jaques: It was deliberate attempt by PA Republicans In 2020 to rig the election. At minimum to create a Red mirage via in in person voting results to discredit later counted Dem-leaning results as somehow tainted. Also too, Trump was braying about how only ballots counted on Election Day itself should be counted. Sabatoge the system so that it’s difficult to count all the mail-in ballots by midnight and…
Soprano2
@suzanne: I’m going to yoga tonight after I vote, I’m hoping that helps some.
Eolirin
@Chris: counter point: both the alt-right and this kind of leftist are heavily influenced by Russian psyops, and are effectively extensions of Russian intelligence services.
Fair Economist
@Citizen Alan: There are a couple of problems with the interstate compact. One is a state reneging on the agreement too late for other states to change. But the biggest, I think, would be one state denying ballot access to one candidate – which Ohio and some other state (Alabama? I forget) considered this year. That would almost automatically make the other candidate win the (now rigged) popular vote.
National popular vote requires national popular vote *standards* as well.
Geminid
@Soprano2: I remember how not too long ago, people were worrying about the low of water in the Mississippi basin that was inhibiting barge traffic. I guess that’s not a problem anymore.
Meanwhile where I live in Central Virginia, it hasn’t rained for 34 days now. If we hadn’t gotten heavy rains from September hurricanes we’d be in real trouble.
Kent
Not to be trusted or relied on. Nothing stops a GOP legislature in a purple state like GA from pulling the plug if their state goes blue. Nothing
The only viable vehicle to improving our elections is a new national voting rights act. That should be priority 1 for any Dem trifecta along with abortion rights.
citizen dave
I’m all in on abolishing the EC. Per wiki, the turnout for Presidential has never been as low as 45%, at least in the last 100 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections
Was 62/65% in 2020.
hueyplong
@Kent: Priority 1 is Dobbs. You pay your debts and the debt is owed to the Dobbs voters.
Plenty of other worthy priorities, but fair is fair.
Fair Economist
@Citizen Alan:
That would pretty much fix the problem, although I think it’s *not* doable by an act of Congress.
Geminid
@Kent: I hate to task anyone with work I can’t pay for, but I’d really appreciate some on-the-ground reporting from the Washington 3rd CD tonight. That race and the Oregon 5th CD race across the Columbia River have really gotten my attention this year.
Gloria DryGarden
“We …wait
Holding our breath
To learn whether breathing might become safe again”
– Liminal Owl
An Epigraph Poem
We wait
Holding our breath
To learn whether breathing might become safe again
Waiting in hope for sunlight, birdsong, a breath of freshness,
deep, like a drink for thirsty bodies.
Hovering, but never lighting on any flower to sip nectar, always ready to flee, predators everywhere.
There’s the freeze, in stillness, like the rabbit or the possum, The stare of a frozen deer in headlights. If you don’t know fear, this looks like beauty, or gentleness.
There’s the flight, running through woods, whipped by branches, heart beating fast, running, but one cannot run at this sprint forever. It becomes necessary to stop, and collect oneself, and like all prey animals, to quiver and tremble and shake it off, as swiftly, as slowly as necessary, until it reaches a resting place.
But there has been no rest for too long.
Tires squeaking down the lightning fast highways of our neurons, frying our brains in the heat; the high speeds wearing off the treads, until there isn’t much left.
Knowing one is not safe, one ventures out anyway, slowly, quietly, pretending not to be fierce.
Carefully pretending one is calm, one drinks hot tea with honey and lemon, breathing in the soothing steam and fragrance.
With as many lemons as can be found we squeeze out juice into lemonade, with honey. We put lemon juice and zest into scones, and Into cake, and pie, and booze, and over fish, into salad dressing, over broccoli, in lemon chicken.
If all we have are lemons, we will make so much more than lemonade.
We pass through a time of comfort foods and jasmine tea and deep breaths, cooking, and dancing to music, as if our lives depended on it.
Copyright Gloria A DryGarden
Kent
I said along with abortion. We can multi-task.
The only reason why Dobbs is even an issue is because of voter suppression. So they are connected.
catclub
@Raven: why do I think that is a scam text message?
Kent
Both OR and WA are 100% vote by mail. So we are unlikely to have any definitive results from either race tonight and if they are close, probably not for several days. I don’t think the WA 3rd race was called for 3 or 4 days last time in 2022.
But I will relay any trends that I see. The ads have been fast and furious and negative here in the WA-3rd. I am hopeful. But I really have no clue. I don’t think there has been much meaningful polling. But by all rights the district should be trending more blue over time as the parts of the district that are growing the most are the bluer Portland suburbs of Vancouver, not the far flung red rural areas.
catclub
Thanks!
Gloria DryGarden
@Gloria DryGarden: spacing problems were not fixable in this format, when I fix, and update, it reverts to L justified. My apologies to the credited poet in the epigraph.
Liminal Owl, if I were to take this prose poem thing I’ve just written, and put it in a publication, I’d like to credit you properly. You are welcome to ask watergirl for my email.
Fair Economist
@Anoniminous: The bigger problem with exit polling is that it can’t get mail votes, and I really doubt they do the work needed for early vote (exit poll for the entire period). So it’s polling a biased sample where we don’t know the bias. Useless.
UncleEbeneezer
@Chris: Thanks for the response.
Regarding your second ‘graph: I get what you are both saying. I really do. But at the current time these ass-wipes are largely viewed (by society in general) as being part of the Left and often used to tarnish it, and sometimes even to define it. I’m all for collective pushback on their anti-Progressive bullshit but I don’t know exactly how we should refer to them as a group when they identify as “Leftists” and most people (including many on our side) are happy to go along with that. Like it or the vast majority of people on this planet view politics in some form of a Left/Right binary. I doubt that is going to change any time soon. Communication involves meeting people where they are already at and talking in a language lay-people can easily understand.
Kent
It is more useful for dissecting the results after the fact, not predicting them.
For example, exit polls tell us how White men ages 20-30 with a HS education compared to Black women of that same age. Or how White women with college degrees voted. And so forth.
But raw exit poll data probably aren’t super predictive for the reason you cite.
Kirk
@Citizen Alan: One of several reasons. Change in power relationships was significant.
The big practical reason, there, is simply logistics. Start with where are you going to seat everyone? Oh, you’re going to make it zoom.gov? Great, on the surface that works.
But what about the classified meetings? Can we do those that way? (yes, but it’s going to be hard and costly.)
Then there’s just the time. Take any committee and increase it to 8 times its current size. Now remember everyone gets to have a few minutes to ask questions of the witnesses (and showboat). At 5 minutes per minute, 80 people (10-15 people per committee at present, usually) means almost 7 hours for just one witness.
I think something is needed, but 100,000 per house member isn’t it.
catclub
also the Air Force…. and three states.
Maxim
Michigan — Wayne declined to do the early vote tabulation, so their results will be delayed.
Geminid
@Kent: Thanks. I hadn’t known both states vote by mail.
I ran into an interesting news site a few days ago while researching WA03. It was the Cascadia Advocate, put out by the Northwest Progressive Policy Institute. Both seem to be the brainchild of the guy who wrote the article I found about this year’s race between Joe Kent and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
He seems like a pretty good reporter. He patted himself on the back some for predicting Perez’s win in 2022, but I can’t blame him much for that because it did surprise a lot of people. His news site covers a lot of other Washington political stories.
lowtechcyclist
@raven:
Seriously. Reminds me of my dad, who first experienced symptoms of what turned out to be Parkinson’s shortly after turning 80. It took about 3 years for his docs to figure out that that’s what it was, and that part was miserable. Once he knew it was Parkinson’s, there was a lot he could do to fight and slow its progress, and he lived to celebrate his 90th birthday.
So I’m sorry to hear you’ve got MS, but I know you must be relieved to at least be able to put a name on it, and have a plan of treatment to keep it in check as much as possible. Good luck, and keep us posted!
Ruckus
I voted on Saturday.
One polling place was open I believe on Wednesday but my closest of the 4 I could use opened (with 2 others) on Saturday. Not much of a line and not all the booths were taken. I was told that someone had voted using my name but they gave me a provisional and I’m going to check after today to see whats what. My name is not totally uncommon so in a county with nearly 10 million residents….. My father once sat next to a fella on a bus to a Shriner’s convention and the starting conversation was “Hi my name is” that was first names – both the same, so last name was added, both the same, so middle initial was added and that was the same. Sons both have the same name as well…. At the VA clinic I go to there is a fellow vet with the same first and last name, and no it’s not the same kid.
@rk:
As a mental health counselor long, long ago we use to say that if you have a case of anxiety way beyond normal or are not used to having it much at all then it can be difficult.
My suggestion is to sit on the floor, some do it cross legged, close your eyes and hum quietly. Sort of a Buddhist thing, like ommm. No radio, TV, music, just quiet. I’ve learned to just sit comfortably, and breathe in and out, slowly and regularly. You have to find what works for you but it’s actually quite simple. I used to be rather high strung and learned to relax by doing this, till my body said OK, I’m calm. Still do it, almost unconsciously on occasion. Life is a lot less bothersome when you realize that it’s you that’s making you not calm and there are simple ways that do not concern inhaling things, or sipping adult beverages to adjust the pressure, because those are very temporary and not all that successful.
Maxim
@Maxim: CORRECTION — It was Warren, the city, not Wayne, the county, that declined to do the early tabulation. But Warren is the state’s third-largest city, so it will still cause a delay.
Ruckus
@Ruckus:
I also used to have a tremor, most notable the hands. I had it for over 60 yrs and one day a year or so ago a doc prescribed a medication that stopped it in 4 days. It hasn’t come back. I like modern medicine.
JML
@Kirk: This is part of why the Wyoming Plan works: you set the size of a House District at the level of the smallest population single district state, and divide the rest out. The total number will fluctuate every decade, but will otherwise be stable. Right now that pops the House up to 574, which is still manageable. Yes, you’d have to build another House Office building, but this also give you the opportunity to name one after someone who wasn’t a racist. Larger states would have more electoral influence closer to their actual numbers.
We’d still have the Senate to deal with, but this would make a real impact in ensuring that popular vote winners are more likely to win the presidency, make House elections more local, and potentially allow a broader array of voices to be represented in government. It’d be a great start without the change being so massive as to confuse people and create the instinctive backlash. No state would lose anything either. but it gets us back closer to people, rather than land, having electoral power…
raven
@TEL:
@gvg:
relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS)
I’m ok for now.
artem1s
IIRC GA was called around 2pm the Saturday after. I was volunteering for an art event and remember it was a beautifully sunny warm day in Cleveland.