I was thinking that it seemed like a good time for a new election post, wondering if I should put one up before I head for bed, and this rotating tag came up.
So I’ll just leave this here.
Open thread.
Reader Interactions
332Comments
Comments are closed.
Kayla Rudbek
I’m so tense right now and totally freaking out
Kyle Rayner
Good tag.
Soprano2
I’m going to drink some more wine and go to bed.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Reposting from below:
No matter what happens, I just want to say it’s been a real privilege and honor being apart of this blog for the last 7 years or so (longer if counting my time lurking, probably 2011ish or 2012), connecting with people and making a real difference
Sister Golden Bear
Definitely a good tag.
Ohio Mom
I would like to think I could go to bed — well, I am in bed right now — but I don’t think I could fall asleep. I know I couldn’t fall asleep.
Ksmiami
Heinrich won in NM woot. He’s great
Ohio Mom
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Uh, where are you going, that sounds like a goodbye speech. We need you here!
Omnes Omnibus
Copied from below: FWIW, this is shaping up to look just like 2020. We didn’t know the result until Saturday that year.
RaflW
Ok, some good news (accidentally just posted this in a thread from way earlier in the day):
This was a worry spot for me. MN GOP was really pushing to win this to kick out the trifecta. (We won’t know the MN House for a while, but fingers crossed that holds too.)
Congress member Angie Craig (MN-02) had been rated pretty risky by Cook Rept. Not called, but she’s looking pretty solid with 85% of the vote tallied in her dist., 56%-42% (roughly).
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Ohio Mom:
Definitely not a goodbye and I’m not going anywhere. It’s just something I wanted to say to everyone. And if it’s not too weird to say, I love all of you
WaterGirl
Not knowing is hard. For some people, it’s less painful to decide that all is lost than it is to live with the uncertainty.
I will say it again, not knowing is hard. But that’s where we are, and we might be here for a few days.
There’s plenty of time to despair, if that’s where things land. But we’re not there yet so we’re all going to have to practice our coping skills.
Yarrow
I’ve said since 2016 that the misogyny penalty for women candidates is 5%. Here it is:
Jean
It feels like 2016 all over again. I just can’t believe it. I was overly optimistic. Harris ran such a good campaign— it felt like Obama’s in 2008. So many happy volunteers. Thanks to the people here, I joined Liberal women of Chesterfield and wrote postcards every week for months and greeted voters at the polls. And I was one of thousands and thousands of volunteers. I’m completely done after this election. I have no energy left.
Suzanne
Educational polarization seems to be growing.
Repatriated.
@WaterGirl: Thanks.
And thanks for everything,too.
And again, an extraneous . at the end of my nym. Sorry ’bout that.
narya
I’m going to sleep. I cannot do any more. Omnes, thank you for your reminders.
tam1MI
@Yarrow: In other words, we should have stuck with Biden. All that agony certain Dems put us through in forcing Biden to step aside was for nothing.
Pharniel
I’m gutted. It feels like a hard race that just couldn’t be won, and I really like having the BJ community.
I just feel lost and a little hopeless & very scared. 2016 repeat.
I’ll still be around, because BJ has done such wonderful things, but it hurts my soul.
circular reasoning
Looking at the numbers right now, I may just have to admit that I don’t understand or belong in this country as it currently exists. That is not a statement of defeat. It is a recognition of reality as it is. I’m trying to figure out what it means to be part of an effective resistance and keep my family safe in the future.
Banksy
I’ve been an avid, multiple-times-daily lurker here since Cole left the Republican Party and Bush was president. This is my first post right now. I don’t know whether Kamala will be able to squeak this out, but obviously we may be looking at a Trump restoration. Ugh. That said, we still need to get up tomorrow and soldier on. And more importantly, work hard to make the world as just a place as we can.
if Trump wins, it’s going to be hard. It’s going to be a slog. So we need to be game planning for (1) how to preserve our democracy the next 2 and 4 years while he overreaches and (2) how to win the next two elections. Because he’s going to overreach if elected, and likely cause a lot of damage. It will be up to us and other good people in this country to try to minimize that harm and then help pick up the pieces afterwards – because if he does 50% of what he’s promised, there’s going to be a lot of broken stuff to pick up.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@tam1MI:
I’m probably gonna get shit for this, but I don’t think that was necessarily the answer. He was too damaged by the media, and he was never able to recover. His age simply caught up with him and I don’t think he could run the campaign he needed to. The first debate could never be unseen and it cemented in many people’s minds the image Republicans and media had been painting of him for a year or more.
Also, there was a reason Biden’s campaign wanted an early debate and it’s because he was already behind, despite spending millions on ads
Ohio Mom
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): (blushes). It’s been enjoyable watching you grow up. I remember when you were just a wee little lad.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: nah she’s done in the blue wall.
Yarrow
@tam1MI: Don’t put those words in my mouth. If that’s what you’re saying, say it.
RaflW
Missouri, like Florida, is apparently populated with 10% or more of the state wanting both total asshole Republicans in office, but also wanting to constitutionally protect access to abortion.
I cannot square that circle.
JiveTurkin
It’s WI, she’s down by 100k and she can’t make it up. No chance unless there is something odd about mail-in and absentee ballots.
Ohio Mom
tam1MI:
Oh please, let’s not open that can or worms again. It is impossible to know. There are always big IFs. If only this, if only that…
JiveTurkin
@RaflW: A lot of people just aren’t smart.
tam1MI
@Yarrow: I was afraid this would happen, it’s why I was so vehement that forcing him out was a bad idea. It looks like I was right, and, god, I wish I wasn’t.
Pharniel
I’m going to eventually pass out. I can’t sleep.
It does feel like 2016 all over again, only maybe without the House?
But I will still be around BJ.
Like Goku said, I treasure the fuck out of Bj. It helped me during Bush I, and the madness of the 2010’s, and it’s one of the few places of respite but still informational on the internet left.
I hope to ride it all to the end with y’all, because it’s one of the few places I still feel community.
JiveTurkin
@tam1MI: I don’t think he could have run any type of effective campaign, and I think it would have been obvious to everyone. Democrats can’t afford to be subpar, they aren’t Trump who is graded on a curve.
Shalimar
@tam1MI: Biden wouldn’t have even kept it close. His campaign had no energy and was circling the drain. Yes, there is a misogyny penalty, but Harris was the best choice we had and she has run an amazing campaign. It isn’t her fault this is a country full of horrible people
edit: and I doubt anyone remembers, but I was pissed at all of the people who joined in the Russian psy-ops campaign against Biden. It was horrible, and it did a huge amount of damage. If not for all of the Democrats participating in driving the narrative that he was incompetent, I think he would have had a good chance of winning. But all of that is in the past now.
prostratedragon
Lucy McBath‘s opponent has conceded.
Tim C.
Hey, love to everyone here. The fight sadly now moves to the local levels, we protect those we can and we make decisions based on that. Above all else, when this all inevitably goes to shit, and it will, we point out relentlessly that this was because people chose Trump. Our pain and sorrow do not absolve of us carrying on as best we can.
It’s hard, it’s going to get harder, and I still am glad to be on the same side as you folks.
Checking out for a good long while, be safe all.
Ohio Mom
@tam1MI: I was terribly torn by the “should he stay or should he go” drama. Then I realized it was out of my hands. I can’t go through that argument again.
I’ve always thought the pie filter was silly, why not just scroll pass? I finally have a use for it, you.
tam1MI
@JiveTurkin: Apparently, Democrats can’t afford to be female either. Maybe that is why the Coup de’Etat Caucus was so hot for an open convention. Maybe they knew something we didn’t.
Adam Lang
I have taken some very strong drugs and my heart rate is 52 and and and and I am still completely broken and trying to decide whether I can complete my move out of the country before Trump takes office.
Drugs which are supposed to be better than this.
Help.
JMG
IMO Biden wouldn’t have done any bette, probably worse. One thing I know. My grandson, now 18 months old, will be my age (75) and we still won’t have a woman President. it’s stupid, it sucks, and it’s reality.
RaflW
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Biden was under water by several percent by the time he bowed out. It sucks. because he has been a very good president on so much these four years. And I was a ‘keep Biden’ guy well into the whole damn kerfuffle.
But he was not running the kind of campaign Harris ran. I don’t think this thing is over, but it’s horrifyingly close. Can’t prove a counterfactual, but my gut says, given how a lot of this country is clearly veering further right (eghad), Biden would have lost outright. As you say, he was too damaged by the press onslaught.
sanjeevs
As Goku said, thanks to all the people here who worked for the right result.
JiveTurkin
@tam1MI: They would have lost a part of the black female vote, the one group that always delivers for Democrats.
Tinare
We are a deeply stupid country.
JMG
@Tim C.: I love this community, and we’ll need each other more than ever now. I don’t want to argue with any of you. If ‘i disagree, that’s all it is.
Balconesfault
@circular reasoning: feeling exactly the same way.
Fortunately have ample resources, and relatives in Slovenia who would welcome us, to start formulating an exit strategy.
JiveTurkin
It’s hard to imagine what would have worked. I saw a poll recently that 50% of Americans rated the economy as poor. Our economy is the envy of the whole world.
Lyrebird
@tam1MI: Nothing is that simple. I do wonder whether Pres. O’Biden was partly hoping to stay at the top of the ticket through this election to get MVP into the POTUS role and get the country used to Madam President before the next election. I also think the Harris-Walz campaign has been AWESOME.
Sickening that so many people are pro-fascism, but I am not giving up either.
tam1MI
On that, we can agree. She didn’t do anything wrong, except be female in a country that hates women.
Balconesfault
@Tim C.:
If Texas is the model, as it so often in, Republicans will trample local government rights as soon as it works for them.
Ksmiami
@Tinare: yep. Depressing to watching the country choose suicide.
Balconesfault
@JiveTurkin:
Trump can fix that.
Ksmiami
@Balconesfault: same here. Bye
Geoduck
One small bit of good news, in WA state we kept the government all-Dem and stopped three of the four horrible initiatives that were on the ballot. The one that might pass is the least damaging one, attacking new home construction energy efficiency. No blowing giant holes in the state transportation budget.
Ksmiami
@tam1MI: exactly
Quinerly
@JiveTurkin: saw a Trump voter today being interviewed. Said his 401 had crashed under Biden.
And, of course, complaining about the price of gas “tripling.”
Shalimar
@Lyrebird: As I have said before, fascists need an other to hate. The saddest part of this is that so many of the others voted for their own destruction.
Suzanne
@JiveTurkin: A record-high percentage of Americans are rent-burdened and house prices are bananas. I really think that high housing costs are hurting people. Working harder but having fewer choices about where you live doesn’t feel good.
Yutsano
I’m keeping faith.
Ohio Mom
@Balconesfault: Add Ohio to that list. Sigh.
Old Man Shadow
If the worst happens, what’s the over/under pn how long it will take JD Vance to poison Trump?
RinaX
@Yutsano:
I’m trying to hang on, but I always feel like it’s over when people resort to those sentiments rather than hard numbers about what places we can make specific gains.
Ohio Mom
@Old Man Shadow: Not long at all. That was at least some people’s game plan all along.
tam1MI
@Yutsano: If Harris pulls through on this, I will happily take back everything I said in this thread (except for the “she didn’t do anything wrong” part, for obvious reasons). But right now it is just not looking good.
mvr
Posted this at the end of the previous thread but it won’t serve its purpose if I leave it there:
So there it is again.
Omnes Omnibus
Since the consensus here is that it’s all over, I’ll just leave you to it. I’m waiting until the votes are counted.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Quinerly:
If he was investing his money in stupid shit within the 401k, then it probably has cratered. My target date index fund in my Roth IRA, which is 90/10 stocks/bonds, with 60/40 US and international for the stock portion, is up 20-something% over the last year
NotMax
Chill, people.
It’s far, far from decided. And won’t be for days.
MobiusKlein
@Omnes Omnibus: hear hear.
It’s a bit doomy at home, so I need to turn machines off
Fair Economist
I have no interest in relitigating this summer. Harris ran a great campaign and I have only good feelings for all of us who worked to hard to get her elected.
Fundamentally I think the problem is the insane concentrations of wealth and power we have now – primarily in a small group of billionaires taking control of the media, but it’s broader than that. It’s very similar to what brought down the Roman Republic. And it’s not just the US, it’s pretty much everywhere at this point except sort-of Europe. I’m not going to give up, and I’ll go down fighting, but I am pessimistic about the future of the planet.
Hungry Joe
I have fucking had it with this country.
We are in the process of RE-ELECTING Donald Trump.
I do not want to live in a fascist state. But I am 74 years old, and I don’t know what to do.
Actually, I do know what to do: walk Willow the Dog.
But I don’t know what to do after that.
Citizen Alan
@Tinare: i think it more accurate to say that we are a majority evil country.
SpaceUnit
@Yutsano:
Thank you.
YY_Sima Qian
@Old Man Shadow: I fear JD Vance much more than Trump. He is the kind of Orbanist that can consolidate a pro-illiberal/authoritarian majority in the US, by being malleable enough to co-opt the more reactionary minded parts of minority demographics, as well as the national security state & corporate establishment.
Doc Sardonic
@Quinerly: Welp, if his 401k cratered he obviously wasn’t paying attention…..gas wise I paid $2.79 today. Anecdata says dumbfuck.
seaboogie
@Yarrow: In 2016 Patton Oswalt said “this country is even more misogynist than it is racist, and it’s pretty fucking racist”.
Yarrow
@seaboogie: I’ve been saying it for far longer than that. 2016 is just when it became more obvious to others. We don’t talk about the misogyny hardly at all. And if Harris loses we certainly won’t.
RaflW
Biden & Schumer should just say “fuck you all” and keep the Senate lights on 24/7 for the next few months and ram thru as many federal judges as even remotely possible.
Because, per media call, the Senate is now officially GOP when sworn in for the next term. We knew this was going to be a very hard fight. I’m a bit shook over Ohio, but we knew in terms of this 3rd of the Senate, it was a hard one structurally.
Jeepers.
Quinerly
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Who knows? He was an idiot, evil Trump supporter who was lying about now paying $7.00 a gallon for gas.
Citizen Alan
@Suzanne: Has any Republican ever even hinted at a solution to that problem? Have any of them ever even acknowledged that it was a problem since the GOP has been the party of the rentier class since approximately 1880?
GregB
Hello again, hello…Long time ago poster lost to Twitter. Muck Fusk, time for a new home. Hope you’ll have me back.
Splitting Image
@Fair Economist:
I agree with this, and I hope the continued vote-counting brings us all better news in the morning.
Eolirin
I have no sense as to whether or not we’re making the gains we need to retake the house.
Does anyone else?
Kelly
In Oregon Democrats won all the statewide races. We may have retaken CD-5. Janelle Bynum leads by a smidge under 2%. My benighted corner of rural Oregon went 71% Trump, about the same as 2020.
SiubhanDuinne
@Yutsano:
Thank you.
Splitting Image
@GregB:
You didn’t bring Fusk along with you, did you?
No? Then welcome back.
piratedan
in local news for the AZ Congressional seats….
Engel (CD6), Ansari (CD3) and Shah (CD1) all Dems, all up with the initial number releases, also Abortion is passing at 63%, Gallego is up… and the Presidential numbers are a toss-up.
tam1MI
If folks here haven’t cancelled their subscriptions to the New York times yet, you should do so ASAP. They, along with the rest of the shitbag legacy media, are a big reason we are in this mess.
frosty
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’ll second that and say that I’m glad you’re here with us.
Quinerly
I just popped a PBR and will stay up all night.
I’m not giving up on PA.
Sister Golden Bear
Regardless what happens with the presidential race, there are victories out there.
Missouri Voters Overturn Near-Total Ban On Abortion
New York Voters Enshrine LGBTQ And Abortion Rights
JiveTurkin
Here’s an example of what we are up against. I live in FL, in a very large 55+ community. It’s in Broward county, so it’s actually pretty liberal. We have a large gym here, and I use it quite a bit. We have many fitness classes, and I probably take at least one class per day on average. More than half the people here are snowbirds, so during off-season there are fewer classes, but even those are sparsely attended. I’m pretty friendly with one of the instructors and I got to know her well since I took a couple dozen spin classes where I was the only attendee. She blames most of her problems on others, and she latches on to conspiracy theories with regularity. Totally believed that illegals were causing FEMA to go broke, I sent her several articles that debunked the theory, not sure if she believed me. Thinks taxes are way too high, but wants the government to fix her problems. She heard that Trump was going to cut everyone’s insurance rates and believes it. I worked in insurance for 30 years, and told her that insurance is regulated on the state level by law, and there is no way the federal government can have a major effect on insurance rates. She’s not stupid, but poorly read, and wants government to make her life better, but just her life and the people she knows. I am almost certain that she voted for Trump. He told her that her life sucks and the country sucks, and he’ll fix all the problems.
RinaX
What depresses me is that, if Harris loses, I don’t see the Dems ever nominating another woman.
LeonS
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I agree on Biden, but I guess we should have had the death cage primary so we could put someone with a penis up … but if that’s really true, it’s hard to see how anything really matters. This country is fucked even if we win (sorry some negativity is hard to suppress).
Eolirin
@RinaX: There’s a decent chance they won’t be nominating anyone
Fascists start their consolidation of power by rounding up political enemies.
Ohio Mom
@GregB: Of course we welcome you back!
George
@Hungry Joe: You, and others, need to stop with the “we” bullsh1t. There is a fascist-curious if not outright fascist element that has voted for the moron three elections running when tens of millions of sane Americans have voted for the small-d and capital-D Democrats.
You can call the moron’s supporters a cult and you would not be far off base. You can say they are bigots and liars and racists and you would be correct. THEY are the ones who are voting for him, not “us.”
LeonS
@RinaX: I’ll be exited if we ever have another free and fair election.
Peale
@tam1MI: Biden would have been slaughtered. It took tremendous effort to get us this close. I think when we finally get real exit polls that can be more detailed, we’ll find that most of the difference wasn’t vote switching. It was a lot of Biden voters sitting this one out. Harris tried to make up for that, by targeting new voters and soft republicans, but it wasn’t enough.
Yutsano
@GregB: You’ll need to go to Decontamination first. Then the third right down the hall for Indoctrination. Then two skips down into the courtyard to declare your fealty to the Tunch, long may he reign in our hearts.
Then you’re good.
Welcome back too!
RaflW
@circular reasoning: I will say, I lived in Texas as an openly gay man, 1990-1995. It wasn’t all easy, and it was in the enclave of Austin, but legally we were very vulnerable. But we also fought for our dignity and rights.
OTOH, I was young. Looking back, I can hardly believe how fearless I was (or seemed). BF and I would walk across the campus of UT holding hands. We’d sometimes kiss on the sidewalk on Guadalupe St (fratboy zone).
Hold AIDS rallies on the lawn of the TX capitol. And so on.
Now that I’m nearing 60, I am tired. And I admit I’ve grown comfortable as the country’s homophobia seemed to tamp down. I am very concerned where that’s headed next. The right wing will not stop at attacking trans people (and I will not abandon solidarity in the face of such attacks).
Ohio Mom
@RinaX: I was thinking the same thing.
JMG
Looks like Baldwin. Slotkin and Casey are losing, too. The Senate is gone for our lifetimes. Get right down to it, people wanted to vote against Biden, and Harris was his stand-in. I’m not here to nag or anything, but that’s what happened. Good governance means nothing. If people are dumb enough to touch the hot stove twice, well, they deserve what happens.
Sister Golden Bear
Also too, buckle up buttercups. Yes, it’s gonna be close and going down to the Blue Wall states. But all the votes haven’t been counted. Remember that in 2020 Biden wasn’t declared the winner in PA until the Saturday after the election. Being in limbo sucks, but let’s not declare that all hope is lost prematurely.
JiveTurkin
Does anyone know what the story is with PA and mail-in ballots? If they are already counted PA is lost. No statistical way for Harris to make up the 75k votes she is down by with 86% of the vote in. Also, same for WI.
frosty
@Omnes Omnibus: I am too. It took four days for PA. We’ll see.
SiubhanDuinne
@GregB:
It’s nice to see your nym again! Welcome back, and please post often.
Lily
1-cent opinion: The win-lose competition is D vs R, not between commenters, opinions or moods in this moment.
JiveTurkin
WTF is going on?
Biden won NY by 22 points, Harris won by 11. Biden won NJ by 16 points, Harris won by 5 points. I don’t get it, she ran a very good campaign and Trump was actually worse, IMO, than he was in 16 or 20. Trump might even win the popular vote.
Eolirin
@JiveTurkin: I would really like you to keep one thing in mind before you post; if a race really is statistically impossible to win, the election experts who know this stuff way better than you do will have called the race. If it hasn’t been called, there’s a reason for it.
RaflW
@Yarrow: Christ. I just looked at Blue Earth Co. in MN. Mankato State Univ. is there. In 2020, Biden won 18,330 to Trump’s 16,731.
Tonight, 100% reporting in, Harris got 17,558 and Trump got 18,002. So total votes were up (I believe the county grew some) but to @Peale‘s comment, at least there, there wasn’t sitting out. Eghad. (We also lost the MN House seat in Blue Earth. Boo.)
sanjeevs
@JiveTurkin: Facebook changed everything. First it destroyed a huge part of the media by sucking up their ad dollars.
Then political discussion moved there. And once someone has posted a pro-Trump message on FB, in front of their family, friends , colleagues etc they are unlikely ever to be reasoned out of it.
Its happening in every democracy unfortunately.
SpaceUnit
In some states early ballots, mail-in / drop box, don’t begin to get tallied until after in-person voting concludes.
Fair Economist
@Eolirin:
Generally we seem to be doing better downballot (which I find shocking, but there it is), so I think we have a good chance. But there are so many razor-close races we won’t know for days.
David Anderson
I need to take a deep breath and not say anything too stupid tonight… but wow…
We’re gonna get hammered good and hard as that is what the nation voted for with eyes wide open.
A little good news in North Carolina as the Dems seem to have broken the GOP legislative super majority as well as holding the Governor and AG office and a Supreme Court seat…..
Lots of ticket splitting happening in North Carolina
Let’s mourn and then figure out what the fuck to do next to protect the vulnerable who will be scapegoated for everything.
Yarrow
@RinaX: Republicans will nominate a woman. And she’ll win.
JiveTurkin
@Eolirin: The only thing I can imagine is that there are absentee/mail-in ballots that skew incredibly Democratic. Because I’m looking at county level data, and it is statistically impossible for Harris to win at this point using only this data set. I don’t see how she comes within 100k of Trump.
Quinerly
@JiveTurkin:
Not to bring up a sore subject but Kornacki was explaining this about an hr ago. Hispanic voters breaking for Trump.
frosty
@Eolirin: Janelle Stelson still beating Scott Perry in PA-10 but too close to call. Hoping my postcards and canvassing pull it out!
GregB
@Ohio Mom: Gooble gobble…No Fusk!
Peale
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): he hasn’t gotten more popular since he dropped out, either.
frosty
@Quinerly: Just poured my 5th Old Fashioned. (Don’t tell my doc!). I’m not giving up on PA but it’s not worth staying up all night for the results, we won’t see them until sometime tomorrow at the earliest.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: I wouldn’t be so sanguine about Europe, the right wing is rising across the continent & getting more extreme. Except possibly Poland, which has kind of already gone through that phase.
We live in an anti-Establishment moment across the world, driven by grievance politics. In such a moment, it is the unapologetic Left & Right wings that tend to benefit, but the Left faces strong headwinds in most places because the privileged Centrists often would prefer to side w/ the reactionary Right to prevent the Left from undercutting their economic interests even by a bit.
Dems should stop thinking that path to electoral victory lie in winning the tiny “middle” of centrists & disaffected former Rs (invariably “deficit scolds”, neoliberals, primacists & neocons). You can’t expect people (of which everrace, gender, religious persuasion, sexual orientation, etc.) w/ misogynist, racist, xenophobic, authoritarian, & fundamentalist views to surrender their misogyny, racism, xenophobia, authoritarianism, & fundamentalism in short order. However, outside of the perhaps 30% of committed Trumpists, the majority of people are still complex creatures w/ complex & often contradictory motivations, & Dems have to develop programs that address, & rhetoric that speak to, their other motivating factors that could be just as strong, such as economic insecurity (despite what the DJIA index or high level GDP metrics might say), scarcity, class sclerosis, & distain for foreign entanglements, & not in a way that pander to their worst instincts. The Dems only need to win another few percent & it would be electoral landslide at the national level.
Stylistically, I think Harris/Walz range a strong campaign. On substance, the impression left on voters is that of “safe” Establishmentarianism that promise little change from status quo.
Doc Sardonic
@Peale: When it comes down to it, some Biden voters gave Clooney and Obama the middle finger and Trump ran the table with Hispanics again. Saw this with the DeSantis landslide against Crist in Florida…..Lots of Democrats sat it out because they weren’t gonna vote for a recycled Repub
RaflW
I feel so bad for Kay (and others) in Ohio. Marcy Kaptur is, so far, hanging on by 0.3%. Way too close to call. This election is not just about Harris.
We may yet win control of the House. That would make a very big difference for the next two years. But the red states are lurching right. And that’s a long-term, deep problem.
Yarrow
@RaflW: Kay’s moving to Michigan. She sees the writing on the wall in Ohio.
RM
I’m not going to lose hope unless the weekend comes and Kamala’s conceded. This took days to settle last time and it’ll probably take days to settle again.
JiveTurkin
@Quinerly: Unfuckingbelievable. But then again I can’t imagine a woman voting for a rapist, and apparently a lot of them have no problem.
BethanyAnne
Maybe it’s a bandwagon thing but I love the Chiefs. Last part of the Superbowl this year, I went to my room and watched alone. I was *convinced* they had lost until the play they won on. And I was like “I’m *way* too depressive to be a good companion when things are tight.” But we do still have days to go before things are all sorted out. Unfortunately. So, my tendency towards despair needs to be held in check. Gotta count the votes to actually know.
JiveTurkin
Trump convinced half the country that the US is a hellhole. And he will fix every problem, from housing to groceries to insurance.
Yarrow
@JiveTurkin: Like I said above, there’s a 5% penalty for women candidates. And then Latinos are breaking for Republicans. If this trend continues some previously blue states may not stay that way.
Subsole
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Funny to say, but likewise.
You’re alright, dude.
prostratedragon
Democrat Jeff Jackson apparent winner for NC attorney general.
cain
@Omnes Omnibus:
Me too. I will wait till it is actually called.
S Cerevisiae
We’re still gonna win this thing.
by all the gods and spirits we will.
keep the faith.
JiveTurkin
@Doc Sardonic: But Harris isn’t a recycled Republican, and the stakes are much bigger. Harris is severely underperforming Biden.
Doc Sardonic
@frosty: Dude, catch up I’m half liter in…….fuck my docs sideways
cain
@Kelly:
Excellent!
frosty
@JiveTurkin: In PA they only OPENED the mail-ins this morning. Best case they count them by tomorrow night. In 2020 it took until Saturday. Chill.
mayim
@JiveTurkin:
Perfect storm of racism and misogyny.
I was pretty sure it was going to be tight ~ but I’d hoped it wouldn’t be quite so squeaky.
I live in Maine’s CD2, which has been very close to perfectly purple over the last decade or so. But I also live in my personal little blue bubble of friends and co-workers, so I did have hopes that there would be a blue wave, despite my more realistic anticipation of a tight presidential race.
GregB
@Yutsano: By your command.
@Yutsano: By your command.
Peale
@RaflW: I think Harris was right to see abortion as a wedge issue for the GOP. They have so few! It’s clear that these bans are unpopular, even with significant numbers of GOP voters, but not enough to make them switch to the only party that’s promised to lift them.
Quinerly
@frosty:
I cleaned house most of the day yesterday. Worked on organizing my new kitchen cabinet redo….and drank multiple “St. Charles” (G&Ts with extra lime and Peychaud’s Bitters). Was feeling very confident about today. Wasn’t planning on drinking.
Oh, well….I have moved on from that PBR to Modelos. I have lime.
I make a mean “Manhattan” and “Sazerac.” Beer is very easy right now, though.
Quinerly
@prostratedragon:
NC loves them some splitting ticket. Sick of my birth state.
Damien
I’m moving to Ireland. I don’t care how it shakes out in the end at this point. It’s too close, and there is no greater difference between two human beings than this race.
Fuck it, America had a good run and I’m tired.
Quinerly
@frosty: 💙
cain
@JiveTurkin:
The problem is that the DOJ while understanding the problem is not yet funded fully to combat misinformation and qanon type stuff.
We really need see this as a national security threat.
But as long as GOP still have a say in funding we got problems.
Tony G
Barring a miracle, Trump has won re-election (even if he loses the popular vote again). The majority of Americans will not blame Trump or the GOP for the damage that they will do. Instead they will blame whoever they perceive to be below them in the hierarchy. That is the United States in the year 2024.
Yarrow
Holy crap.
There’s a lot going on in Spanish language media that English speaking America has no idea about. Also, racism and sexism.
tam1MI
Well, I have to head to bed, I work tomorrow. Hopefully I will wake up to better news. See everyone on the flip side!
Subsole
@tam1MI:
Eh. I don’t think it would have changed too much, honestly.
At some point, you have to let the voters take the fall for their own poor choices.
We live in a country where lots of people will vote to spite people they think inferior, and do not realize they will have to pay a price for it.
It is what it is. All you can do is survive as best you can and wait for a chance.
We don’t deserve what’s coming. But I take (very, very) small comfort in the fact that these pigshit-ignorant assholes absolutely have it coming to them.
Hungry Joe
@George: “We” as a country — which is how I wrote it, and how I meant it — most certainly are in the process of re-electing Donald Trump. Explain to me how this is bullshit.
Or rather, don’t. I never engage on online spats — call me thin-skinned, I don’t care. Ordinarily I wouldn’t have responded, but tonight isn’t ordinary.
Now if you’ll excuse me, Willow the Dog is still waiting for her (very late) walk.
Doc Sardonic
@JiveTurkin: OK……Let me old whitedemocratmansplain. Lots of people got pissed off about how Biden was treated. Result…..Fuck it we will vote down ticket Dem but we sittin’ out President.
Subsole
@Tim C.:
You too. Hope to see you around.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m not sanguine about Europe. Sorry if I gave that impression. They are subject to the same pressures we have here. But they haven’t lost *yet*; they’re still OK for the moment. Almost everywhere else has lost or is facing grim odds (well, OK, the Pacific Rim states are better too). E.g. Lula won the presidency but the conservatives still control the parliament.
frosty
@Quinerly: Ms F’s pandemic hobby is mixology. Our Gateway Cocktail was a French 75. We’ve gotten quite experimental!
JiveTurkin
@frosty: The problem is that WI and MI both look worse than PA. Down by 225k in MI with 58% of the vote counted, and there aren’t enough blue county votes out there.
Quinerly
@Yarrow:
The Hispanic voters for Trump and Republicans is the big story of this election.
Ridnik Chrome
@JiveTurkin: Thing is, he’s not gonna fix any of those problems, and will almost certainly make most of them worse. In some cases, a lot worse. And people are gonna get hip to that a lot faster than you think. Owning the libs may be lots and lots of fun at election time, but as an actual governing policy, it’s been disastrous, time and time again.
Also, I’m only a semi-regular on this here blog, but I can’t say I recall seeing your nym around here before tonight when you showed up to tell us we’re doomed, doomed, doomed.
Eolirin
@Fair Economist: Without the US in the mix, the risk of invasion by Russia goes way up.
JiveTurkin
@Yarrow: Might be the story of the presidential race. The amazing thing to me is that trump has never really hidden his contempt for Hispanics, I guess he sometimes couches it in “its’ really just the illegals”, but unless you are dumb as a rock he practically screams that he hates those people.
Quinerly
@frosty:
Several years ago, I fell into the old school cocktail craze. Based parties around my “guest cocktail.” The French 75 was a hit. And also the one that yielded the most complaints about headaches and missed work.
Subsole
@NotMax:
Genuinely curious, what are you basing that on?
I thought the reason it took so long to call 2020 was the vagaries of Life During Plague-Time?? Those don’t really apply now.
Maxim
@Quinerly: Yup. And young black men went strongly for Trump as well (transphobia).
Lily
In states and counties where election officials in 2020 supported overthrowing the vote, reasons for recounts would be welcome. Also, FBI-identified foreign influence attempts could be a reason in places where that happened, I hope.
Doc Sardonic
@Doc Sardonic: Edit window closed on me. Trump also ran the table with Hispanics again…..Houston the democrats have a Spanish language problem that they need to solve.
Betty Cracker
Fuuuuuck! That is all.
Quinerly
New Mexico called for Harris. I love my adopted state.
Doc Sardonic
@Quinerly: Sell me on your adopted state….I hear healthcare sucks…assuming I can get out of Florida
Lily
@Quinerly: “St. Charles” — sounds wonderful. Martinis are also magic for me.
gene108
@David Anderson:
2008 was the only time NC went Dem for President since 1964, despite Democrats consistently being competitive at other levels of government.
Subsole
@JiveTurkin:
Oh, he’s absolutely gonna fix their shit. Believe. And I’m here for it.
Sadly, he will also be fixing our shit in the process, as well…
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: I am very concerned about Germany & France, & the UK Labor’s landslide in the last election is belied by the very weak level of vote share & popular support. I think any European nation w/o a strong Left wing will be very vulnerable to the ultra-right seizing power. (France has a strong Left, but the Macron Centrists seem much more ready to accommodate Le Pen than Melanchon.)
kalakal
@JiveTurkin: If Trump wins they’re going to have the biggest case of buyers remorse in history.
Right now the result is not determined, calm down, get some sleep, love to you all
prostratedragon
@Quinerly: Kinda looks like some people went way out of their way to vote against Harris. In general, even if she pulls it out, it does not speak well.
Subsole
@tam1MI:
I’m in the same boat. Logging off now. Gonna try to sleep.
See you (and everyone else) on the other side.
JiveTurkin
I think Trump is almost certainly going to win the national vote. I can’t understand anything anymore, young black males voting for a racist, white women voting for a rapist, Hispanics voting for a guy who got his start by calling Mexicans rapists and murderers. I half expect to wake up tomorrow and find I’m in alternate reality.
Quinerly
@Doc Sardonic:
Healthcare does suck. I now live outside of Santa Fe on 3 acres. I have resigned myself that all my healthcare will be in Albuquerque. I still haven’t found a primary care physician in SF I like. I live in the land of Nurse Practioners and PAs with their own shingles. And after 3 years have no dentist. I love my old dentist in St. Louis. Have gone back for him. Fortunately, I have never had a cavity in my entire life.
sanjeevs
@YY_Sima Qian: The Russians will be really focused on taking down Macron.
France has Europe’s only independent nuclear deterrent.
Yarrow
@YY_Sima Qian: The world is moving toward authoritarian, surveillance states, aided by technology that we all carry around with us.
Just today I was looking at an article that talked about how natural disasters reduce social trust. The Covid pandemic plus increasingly frequent natural disasters because of climate change may reduce social trust and cohesion. I don’t see good things ahead of us.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Woke up at 6am, which is 11pm Eastern. Made the mistake of opening a browser. Anxieties meant I couldn’t get back to sleep, so here it is 8am, 1am Eastern, and I’m fully awake.
I’m taking solace in the numbers being not as bad as 2016, if they’re not as good as 2020. I remember how long it took in 2020 before we knew for sure.
I don’t drink and I’m afraid of cannabis.
Today, Wednesday, November 6, is going to be a hellishly long day.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: France is a big problem because of Macron’s worship of the right. If the centrists won’t allow a center-left alliance, the population might well vote in the fascists. Germany, I think, will get a CDU government next go-round, which will be a kind of Reagan-level event for them (it’s not Angela Merkel’s party anymore) but not imminent catastrophe.
YY_Sima Qian
@sanjeevs: Given Macron’s political acumen (or lack thereof), he is fully capable of taking himself down & letting Le Pen seize power.
Quinerly
@prostratedragon:
Trump made extraordinary gains in strong Hispanic counties/areas here in NM. I am looking at the map right now.
I ended up firing my Hispanic yard guy/helper back in August over his new found love of Trump. It broke my heart about Miguel. He had hated Trump….and then suddenly after Harris was the nominee he had become brainwashed and was in a cult. Constantly telling me about “doing his own research.”
Kyle Rayner
A little sumthin’ sumthin’ to keep the remaining owls in good spirits. Good night!
Yarrow
@Quinerly: Like I said, if Latinos continue moving toward Republicans previously safe blue states will not stay that way.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: The CDU has been radicalizing toward the far right to fend off the AfD. If the CDU manages to hold power for the right wing, it will be the immigrant population that will be sacrificed 1st.
Doc Sardonic
Thanks….I guess I’ll stick with the drink myself to death in a third world shit hole plan
JiveTurkin
My last post of the night. These results pain me much more than 2016, and that was gut punch. In a way the thing that bothers me most is that all of Trump’s legal problems go away. I know that he is due to be sentenced on the state felonies and supposedly can’t do anything about them (unless SCOTUS goes further in the tank for him), but what can the judge do? He’ll get probation and a fine, someone will pay his fine for him. Maybe he’ll surprise us and sentence him to weekend behind bars. His civil convictions should stand, and I hope E Jean Carroll continues to remind people that he was found to have sexually assaulted her. The Saudis or some other enterprising country will probably just pony up the money for his fines.
Mai Naem mobile
I am finding MSNBC really annoying to listen to tonight..it’s like they’re talking in some alternative reality. And the laughing and giggling is making me gag.
Quinerly
@Yarrow: truth
JiveTurkin
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: I think the final numbers will be worse than 2016, she may lose the national vote. Some states are much closer than 2020 (NJ, NY), and the very red states are more very red, which I didn’t think was possible.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: The whole world has been radicalized against immigrants. Opposition to immigration here in the US soared during Biden’s presidency, and it’s been soaring in Europe too. It’s horrible, but I think most countries closing their border to immigration is baked into the cake now. If not now, certainly when the climate refugees really start coming.
gene108
@YY_Sima Qian:
Only way to do this is to seriously downplay the issues concerning the LGBTQ+ community, and dialing back attempts to hold the police accountable for abused, and other issues that are popular on the Left or by minorities, but not popular to white people.
Republicans built their coalition by winning the majority of the majority demographic’s vote. It’s hard to cobble together enough other groups to consistently beat the majority of the majority.
@JiveTurkin:
Trump campaigned in NY and NJ to drive down Dem margins and give him a shot at winning the popular.
Betty Cracker
Trump is about to declare victory. I’m not gonna watch that.
Quinerly
Trump getting ready to speak.
Suzanne
@Quinerly: Tons of men hate women. That crosses racial lines.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: Yeah, that’s about right. Of course, shutting out climate refugees will only mean more regional wars & failed states. No state can build walls high enough.
RaflW
@JiveTurkin: I’ll try to think more on this and expand on it in future, but in short: Hispanic is an extremely broad category. And Republicans have figured out that what they’re offering is entre into whiteness for many Hispanic folks.
I think back to my childhood when Italian-Americans were routinely called racialized slurs. But Italian-Americans are thoroughly white now, like to the point that to younger people, they’d probably think I’m nuts to say they ever weren’t white.
Democrats value diversity, and I am all on board for that. But we have not, as a nation, decided that diversity is the good and correct path.
Strategically (and of course in coded and quiet ways) offering whiteness to conservative Hispanics and keeping other people as the targeted minorities in a divide and conquer, someone may as well come out on top, hey there 4th generation Texas Latino Carlos Vasquez, yes please join our club that still quietly excludes most Black and some brown people.
It’s insidious, but I think it’s certainly part of what’s happening.
Rose Judson
@Banksy: Just got up over in the UK; approved your comment. Welcome.
Anyone else who sees this, go read what Banksy has to say at comment 20.
Love you all.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
@YY_Sima Qian:
Like I’ve said a couple times here, the story of the last decade and a half all over the West is that the political center has decided to simply drive the car into the ditch. They saw the possibility that the 2008 crisis and the collapse of the Reagan/Thatcher consensus of the last three decades offered a real opportunity for a leftward political swing towards what Krugman used to call a “new New Deal,” and they decided that that would be every bit as horrific and unthinkable as a fascist resurgence, and really more so, because while both sides do it, liberals are still worse.
You see it in France with Macron refusing to play ball with the NFP or moderate any of his politics in a leftward direction. You see it in the U.K. with the death grip the austerity faction has on Labour. The Democrats have probably been in the best shape of all, but even they’ve been kneecapped to quite an extent by the Lieberman/Manchin types working in cooperation with the right wing and the entire political ecosystem (media, the rich, etc).
I honestly don’t know where we go from here. Especially if the trends reported tonight are true: the Democrats’ unusual strength had rested to quite an extent on having a much larger base of nonwhite voters than their peers in other countries, and if they’re starting to vote like the whites, things are going to go downhill really fast. And in a fascist political environment, things are a lot dicier than waiting twelve years for political thermostatis to return you to office.
strange visitor (from another planet)
well unless something drastic happens, i guess the bomb threats the russians sent to the swing states in high density demoocratic districts worked like a charm.
NotMax
@Quinerly
Will Aileen Cannon be onstage with him?
Quinerly
@Suzanne: no lecture needed. I have lived more years than you.
I hate to dump on the Hispanic community but the numbers are telling the true tale.
Quinerly
@NotMax: nothing would surprise me.
Yarrow
@Suzanne: Truth. An easy thing to exploit when one candidate is a woman. Men don’t want to be ruled by a woman.
JiveTurkin
@Yarrow: Men don’t want to be ruled by a woman.
I wondered last year why almost no men take the fitness classes i our 55+ community (there are almost 150 per week during season). My wife said I was missing the obvious, that a lot of men, especially older men, don’t want to be told what to do by a woman. I don’t understand that at any level, I like to think I value expertise, and the instructors know their stuff. And the classes are free if you are a resident.
Yarrow
@JiveTurkin: 150 classes a week and they’re all taught by women? That’s weird. Are there no classes taught by men so you can test her theory?
Also, if they were taught by young, cute, fit women I’d bet the men would show up. Sigh.
RaflW
This country is baffling. Zoey Zephyr has won reelection in a landside in her Montana district. 83% of the vote.
Openly trans. Amazing, and yet confounding.
NotMax
@JiveTurkin
Sports bras belay the jiggling.
//
PJ
First: F@ck all you doomers.
Second: For the people who are blaming this all on Biden, he seems to have outperformed Harris in most places. Why do you think he would have done worse if had stayed in the race? I still believe Harris can pull this out, but my biggest fear was that this racist, misogynist county would not be comfortable with anyone besides an old white man.
Lily
My sister just texted from ME because their Q1 passed, to limit contributions to candidate PACs to $5,000. (GOP already committed ahead of time to take it to court). Their statewide vote went to Harris by 10 points. The district votes were split, so 3 EVs for Harris, 1 for Evil.
I’m from MA, next to Lanesville many years now, so no doubt about Harris++. Although obnoxious Tists were on the prowl with giant flags interfering with the traffic circles all weekend.
TurnItOffAndOnAgain
@JiveTurkin: Thought you’d made your last post of the night?
Mel
I have been trying to keep from panicking, but I cannot anymore. I am sick with fear, for everyone that I love.
Betty Cracker
@Rose Judson: Good advice.
Quinerly
@TurnItOffAndOnAgain:
You know, it happens. After being around here since Schiavo, I thought I had made my last comment in July.
It’s a community…a family….it’s difficult and complicated.
Genine
@Banksy: I appreciate those words. I hope basic human decency squeaks it out. If not, I’ll grieve then move on.
OGLiberal
@JMG: Wait, Bob Casey is losing? The fuck?
Chris
@PJ:
The problem is that even the old white man thing isn’t a solution. If you run an old white man, young, female, and nonwhite voters will whine that they don’t feel represented, but if you run anyone else, old white male bigots stay home. Not all of them by any means, or even most, but the margins are where you win or lose these elections.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Well, that’s how Germany went from the Weimar Republic to the Third Reich.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
Pretty much. Except this time it’s happening everywhere, certainly in the West. I literally can’t think of a single country that’s bucking the trend; some are just going slower than others.
Quinerly
Worth the read.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-presidential-election-takeaways-d0e4677f4cd53b4d2d8d18d674be5bf4
Betty Cracker
@Mel: You’re not alone in that. If the worst happens, we’ll have to keep on keeping on as best we can. Banksy’s comment at #20 is wise: minimize the harm where possible.
Suzanne
@Quinerly: I know you know.
I just think it is worthwhile for everyone to remember that lots of people think the only problem with wealthy white patriarchy is that they don’t get to participate in it from the advantaged position.
prostratedragon
@strange visitor (from another planet): Has turnout dropped in those districts?
Mel
@JMG: True, but the enormous numbers of people who didn’t choose this don’t deserve this horror.
No One of Consequence
Thanks for doing the right thing when you had a chance to do something about the Seditionist, Mitch.
Good job on moving with alacrity and a sense of purpose, Merrick.
Fantastic and strategically-sound choice in publicly airing your grievances, Mr. Clooney.
And well-played, Mr. and Mrs. Republican or Fasc-Curious Voter ALONG WITH our couch-riding apathetic Fellow Citizens who bravely decided to grow your asses by another bag of pork rinds as opposed to schlepping your asses to the polling booth to try to save democracy.
I hope you thoroughly enjoy and get to experience the full effects of your choices. The rest of the country, in our Collective Stupidity, get to ride along now. What fun.
-NOoC
BarcaChicago
I”m rn seeing references to us losing PA – is this true?
Quinerly
@BarcaChicago:
I am hopeful but not looking good.
prostratedragon
@Chris: Horrifying, isn’t it?
YY_Sima Qian
@gene108:
That will not gain the votes of the bigots, & instead will lose the votes of progressive whites. No, I think the Dems need to do the right thing in all policy areas (foreign & domestic), but loudly & confidently speak the language of economic populism, & target different audiences w/ different emphasis. Stop being afraid of offending the tiny technocratic Centrist who prioritize protecting the interests of capital owners & sustaining US primacy (that is already gone) over strengthening liberal democracy.
Not interested in placing blame when the votes are still being counted (or indeed after all of the votes have been counted), but WTF was Harris doing welcoming endorsement by Dick Cheney & hobnobbing w/ Liz Cheney? To many people on both sides of the political spectrum, the Cheneys represent the worst kind of Establishment both are revolting against.
SectionH
@Omnes Omnibus: TY for being sane.
Juju
@Quinerly: I’m not either unless I have to. I’ must say I am worried, especially about some of my nieces and nephews. I have almost the whole LGBTQ rainbow covered with them. I have a niece who is in the process of making the transition. I worry about her the most. I worry for Ukraine and the Palestinians in Gaza as well as the Supreme Court. You might have to talk me down from the ledge. I’m really beginning to agree with you about staying in NC. I used to think staying would help things change, but I’m not so sure it makes a difference anymore.
By the way, what’s a PBR?
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
I’ve lurked here for years, and rarely have anything to say any more. Don’t have much to say now. Despondency feels quiet. But thank you all for being yourselves and being here for one another. You all take care of yourselves, and hold your loved ones tight. We all need each other now more than ever
Kay
Well, sorry everyone. I know we all tried
I just can’t imagine what deporting 12 million people will look like. Hard times ahead.
NotMax
TV interrupting with a staccato report that a race has gone from Too Early To Call to Too Close To Call is stupid.
NotMax
@Juju
Pabst Blue Ribbon beer.
Juju
@Sister Golden Bear: Thank you for that.
strange visitor (from another planet)
@prostratedragon: i don’t know the numbers, but they evacuated and closed polling stations temporarily in several locations. i would imagine there was an effect.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
ABC cut off the Final Jeopardy question when James Earl Jones died.
Assholes.
Yarrow
Saw on Threads that D’s are poised to take the House. Jeffries as Speaker. So that’s good, at least. Sorry, don’t know how to link.
SiubhanDuinne
@gene108:
NC voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 But otherwise, yeah.
SiubhanDuinne
@gene108:
NC voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 But otherwise, yeah.
Juju
@NotMax: Oh. Thank you. I could not come up with that, but I’m not really a beer person. I’ve lived my life up to this point not knowing what PBR was.
Juju
@NotMax: Oh. Thank you. I could not come up with that, but I’m not really a beer person. I’ve lived my life up to this point not knowing what PBR was.
SiubhanDuinne
@gene108:
NC voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 But otherwise, yeah.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
You’d think the broadcast networks would have learned from the Heidi debacle.
SiubhanDuinne
@gene108:
NC voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 But otherwise, yeah.
Quinerly
@Juju:
Hi! I am in shock. I felt so very confident. I wasn’t ever confident about HRC in 2016.
When you are able to take a break, please come out for a visit. Would love to see you again.
Pabst Blue Ribbon….my summer, cheap yard beer. I never force it on anyone. Plenty of other choices here at “The House of JoJo.”
Hugs. And hugs to your mom. I know a little of what you are going through.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: I agree we need to do targeted advertising, and tell different groups the different things they want to here. The problem is that the media, which says nothing when Republicans do it, will call us out relentlessly.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, I agree that simply giving up on LGBT rights, civil rights, et al isn’t an option either – if we simply fold all the way down the line, there’s simply no reason for the party to exist anymore, as people will simply vote for the other side and get the real stuff instead of the milquetoast version.
In which case, again, I don’t know where we go from here. I continue to say the media and its total takeover by the far right is the single biggest factor dragging us down (Spanish language media has been mentioned here), but I have no idea what to do about it, especially since most people even on our side continue to refuse to believe that it even is right wing.
PIGL
@sanjeevs: nailed it in one.
SiubhanDuinne
@gene108:
NC voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976. But otherwise, yeah.
Yarrow
Well, I hope they like what they get with their vote.
NotMax
Crap crap crap.
NBC projects Dolt 45 winning PA.
Eolirin
@Chris: I don’t think there’s much point in trying to figure out where we go from here.
The dislocations a second Trump term will cause will invalidate any planning we might have attempted.
A lot of their demographic advantages will likely go away if they try to do even a little of what they’re promising, but they’ll be replaced with anti-democratic methods to prevent a loss of power.
The environment we’ll be in will not be one amenable to treating as a continuation of the current political and cultural structures. It’ll be a hard break from them. We’ll need to see where that all lands before it’ll be useful to even think about how to respond.
Quinerly
That’s it.
PA for Trump.
More than likely a popular vote majority.
Geoduck
@Yarrow: ED votes?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Quinerly:
Jesus Christ, that’s the biggest slap in the face in all of this, honestly. It was bad enough to lose via the EC, but a pop vote majority? For that fucker? Why? What do these people, including the Arab-Americans, think he’s going to do for them?
ETA: I know it’s misogyny and partly the I/P conflict, but come the fuck on, these Trumpists have connections to and in many cases are white Christian nationalists. WTF do they think is going to happen to them?
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Geoduck: Election Day, not counting absentee or early voting.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Geoduck:
Election Day, I’m guessing
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Well, Japan, for one. When the LDP establishment that has had a stranglehold on Japanese politic since the ’50s (whose formation was facilitated by the US & specifically the CIA) span the spectrum from the centrist to the far right (after all, the US helped to form the LDP to marginalize the Left that was surging in the early 50s), then the only non-Establish alternative is fortuitously the Left & the Center Left.
SK still seem to swing wildly from the Left to the Right, & back again, in every election. Taiwan has been trending progressive on social values, but economically it is increasingly corporatism at the expense of labor. Across SE Asia, “developmentalism” still takes priority over Left-Right divides (in the local context) & keeps an increasingly tenuous lid on ethno-nationalism.
The CPC regime in the PRC has a political program that increasingly resembles reactionary right wing nationalism, but an economic program that is increasingly Left wing (one might even call it “Progressive” in certain aspects), where “developmentalist” considerations still dominates, & remains illiberal by any definition.
PIGL
@Subsole: ya took the words right out of my mouth.
That a lot of the disasters to come will befall those who actually deserve it is the only consolation the rest of us are likely to get.
NotMax
@
Ready for Secretary of State Lecter?
//
BarcaChicago
PA has been called for Trump. I admit I am in shock. But I”m not in despair. That’s what they want.
RinaX
Looks like we are going back.
cain
@Quinerly: amazing .. well we have spent so much of our time trying to save this country but looks like we voted for suffering and there is nothing we can do about that.
Regardless I will wait till the official call.
TBone
@NotMax: I just woke up and I am very confused. WTF is going on?
Is premature victory being declared just as we knew would happen?
Yarrow
@Geoduck: Election Day
Maxim
Wow.
I really thought we were better than this. Wise enough to vote not only against Trump, but for the promise of a Harris administration. Not all of us, of course, but enough.
Misogyny and white supremacy are some incredibly powerful toxins.
NotMax
#260 meant to be @Quinerly.
Quinerly
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
One thing about it….all of the Arab Americans, Latinos, and White Women who voted for him should know exactly what they are getting.
Looking like he will win by 4 it’s.
Trump et al will read this win as an enormous mandate.
Mai Naem mobile
@Yarrow: that’s some stupid right there. I’m sure Jared will sell them some shares in his hotel development business in Gaza. Jill Stein got more votes than Harris??
Maxim
@PIGL: Not nearly enough of them. And far too many will hit the people who didn’t vote for any of this.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
I was saying the West and not counting the East Asian democracies. But I admit that’s partly because they tend to be even worse than the West on immigration and therefore not a likely prospect for any of us to move to in a worst case scenario.
Eolirin
@TBone: PA has been called for Trump. Harris can’t get to 270.
That’s the end of it. We may lose all three senate seats in the Midwest too.
Open question on the House. A trifecta would be even worse, given that they’re likely to have a moderate margin in the senate.
3Sice
A billion dollars and all I got was this lousy camo hat.
Opiejeanne
@BarcaChicago: who called it?
Yarrow
@Eolirin: Agree with this. And if America goes fascist what happens with the old world order and the rest of the world’s democracies is really unknown. There will be no safe places.
mali muso
Waking up at 2am to this after a nightmare in which I woke up to an electoral college tie. I feel numb.
Quinerly
@Opiejeanne:
The networks. And cable.
lowtechcyclist
@Opiejeanne:
NBC, CNN, Fox.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris:
@Fair Economist:
Well, MSM will be increasingly irrelevant, stop relying up on them. Dems & everyone in the anti-Fascist coalition need to think of ourselves, & conduct ourselves, as insurgents rather than the Establishment defending an unpopular & discredited status quo. Take advantage of the inevitable Repub misrule to develop & present alternatives, as the reactionaries have done over the past few decades. Wage a counter-counter-revolution against the reactionary counter-revolution (hopefully violent means will not be needed, but TBD).
Suzanne
Saw this on Xhitter.
I think there’s truth here.
BarcaChicago
Americans will not elect a woman. That’s all I got. That and corporate media deliberately intervening for Trump by their coverage.
cain
@BarcaChicago:
I was under the assumption that there is more than one path to 270 and that PA is not the only path.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Japan is generally considered part of the West. Parts of SE Asia is pretty open to foreigners living there for extended period of time, but not permanent settlement, though.
TBone
@Eolirin: thank you, less confused now. Sleep now impossible though 😔
Mel
I have five nieces under 35, and 2 grandnieces who are a tween and an elementary schooler. One of my nieces has a seizure disorder that has caused severe brain damage. She is 18, and is entirely dependent upon her parents for her day to day care. She is a sweet, innocent , loving girl with the cognitive function of a 3 year old. She is much beloved, and her parents have done a great job of making sure that her life is happy, safe, and enriching. Her mom was a restaurant manager who left her job years ago to stay at home with Kate, and her dad supported the family working at his job as a partner in a small business, doing carpentry and renovations. Social Security and the ACA have allowed their family to stay intact and afloat, and allowed Kate to get the care she needs. It has been a tight squeeze at times, they had that safety net that allowed them to give their daughter the loving care that she needs, to stay in the house they worked so hard to purchase and make into a home. Last year, Kate’s dad was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. He has appx. three months left to live. What in the hell will they do when they lose their health insurance and Kate’s Social Security?
My infusion treatments are what keeps me alive. Without insurance protections, quite simply, I am a dead person walking. I am so frightened for all of us who depend upon Social Security, who have pre-existing conditions, who are minorities, who are LGBTQ, who are who are too old, too sick, or too poor to have a way through this or out of this. And that is so, so many of us , so many good, loving people.
What in the hell are we going to do?
NotMax
@Suzanne
“We get their stuff, right?”
//
lowtechcyclist
Just woke up to this as well. At a gut level, I really didn’t believe this could happen. But here we are.
Chris
@Yarrow:
I’ve said for years that America going finally for-real fascist would be as great a blow to democracy as the fall of the USSR was to socialism. We may be about to find out.
PIGL
@Eolirin: well, and truly spoken. The old order is dead.
cain
@Suzanne:
Luckily we are a very entitled population. To maintain their power they are going to have to do a lot of things to keep low prices. They are not smart enough to figure it out.
They have no idea what was accomplished and the media has chosen not to help.
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: I’m still in denial and want to shout “HINKY” from my rooftop.
PIGL
@Quinerly: it is an enormous mandate.
NotMax
@cain
PA brings it to 266. Alaska and part of Maine will seal the deal.
Eolirin
@cain: with the states left, PA is necessary.
BarcaChicago
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are phenomenal candidates and ran a pretty much flawless campaign. I think that’s indisputable. Trump is a severely mentally ill, incapacitated mess. I can’t imagine he’ll be in actual power long, he’s simply cognitively incapable. So I guess it will be Vance. It’s hard to even picture it for me.
PIGL
@Maxim: oh, I know I know. We just have to learn to appreciate the little things.
I’m speaking from Canada, where worse things are yet to unfold: If we can’t stop them what good are we?
Mel
@RaflW: 💕Standing with you.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
If the bout of inflation hadn’t have happened coming out of the pandemic, would things have been materially different?
Quinerly
@Suzanne:
Very close to the truth. Over half the country doesn’t care about boxes of docs in his bathroom, his supporters smearing shit on the walls of the Capitol, his sexual assault of women, his health, his dementia, his misogyny, his threats, his love of Putin and Hitler, etc….
I’m out of steam…..and in shock. This country is about to go thru some shit. But, you know that.
Yarrow
@Mel: I’m so sorry. That’s impossibly hard. I don’t even know what to say.
Eolirin
@YY_Sima Qian: The difference we will have is that when they waged their insurgency, our democratic norms precluded us rounding them up into camps.
They will have no such compunction.
df
Fuck.
Richard Fox
I wish I knew what we are to do. I’m in such a daze that I can’t function. I’m a 64 year old gay guy with three years to go before I can collect full social security benefits. I have not touched it yet as I wanted the full amount. So I’m still working. There goes my normal middle class life out of sight. Words fail. In the end what do they see in this awful man? I’ll never understand. Never.
Gin & Tonic
Say good-bye to an independent Ukraine.
Chris
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I doubt it. Reagan had a nasty recession in his first term and it was all forgiven and forgotten come reelection time. Obama had a horrible economy for all of his first term but it was visibly turning around in time for reelection and he got the credit for it. What neither of them had that Biden and Harris did was the scorched earth war the media declared on them that effectively kept “we’re in a recession or we’re going to be any minute” in the news all the way to the election. There was sniping at Obama, but nothing like this (because, I’ve become convinced, they were certain he’d lose 2012 without needing much of a push from them. They haven’t made that mistake again).
anastasio beaverhausen
Waking up in London this morning I’m reminded of a sign I saw outside a pub when I was hiking here in 2016. It was about the Brexit vote:
Pride and Prejudice: 51.90%
Sense and Sensibility: 48.10%
PIGL
@Gin & Tonic: if Germany and France don’t get their act together, we can say goodbye to Western Europe
Splitting Image
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I doubt it. They don’t care that crime is lower than it used to be. They simply lie about it. They don’t care that taxes are lower than they used to be. They simply lie about it.
If prices had dropped coming out of COVID, they would have pivoted to how low prices were hurting businesses. Prices drop when people aren’t buying.
No one goes fascist for a reason. They do it because they bloody well want to. Any reason they do give is a pretext.
Quinerly
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
White Women, Hispanics, and Arab Americans voted against their interests. I don’t think inflation had anything to do with it.
Over 50% of the voting population love them some Trump.
(He is speaking….and already talking about the popular vote and his “powerful mandate.”)
Maxim
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It certainly would have helped. Food prices have stayed high and housing is ridiculous. For most people, those are their two biggest expenses, that and a vehicle or two, which are also very expensive. Economic anxiety always comes back on the party in power.
John S.
Wow, that really is it. Once Alaska is called, that orange motherfucker wins. And not just the electoral college, but the popular vote too!
What a fucking country.
Juju
I think I’m going to throw up.
Juju
@John S.: wait until all of the big western states are counted before fretting about the popular vote.
df
They should have “for the last time” companion stickers for the “I voted” stickers.
Juju
@Quinerly: I just can’t anymore.
Juju
We are the world’s laughingstock.
Gloria DryGarden
@Quinerly: thank you
Maxim
The AP called PA for Trump.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Juju:
Most of the rest of the world isn’t in great shape either.
Chris
@Splitting Image:
Yep.
TBH, I’ve thought since 2016 at the latest that the popularly understood narrative of “the trauma of WWI and the Great Depression made Germany go fascist!” needed revision. No one seems to remember that fascism originally popped up in Italy, a country that actually won WWI, a decade before any Great Depression.
Quinerly
@Juju:
This is true.
Trump now babbling about Elon and setting the phone down for 45 mins…and “holding your baby a night.”
“That’s why I love you Elon.”
“The danger was unbelievable.”….he’s talking about Elon and Starlink in NC.
“Have to protect our super geniuses.”
Eolirin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I don’t think that’s a thing that could have happened.
strange visitor (from another planet)
well i hope they were lying about what project 2025 was gonna do to medicare and medicad (let alone to social security). i’m bipolar. mad as a hatter. on SSI and broke as a joke. i’m gonna get hammered.
Eolirin
@Gin & Tonic: If they do what they’ve said they’re going to do on tariffs and deportations and cutting government spending, I think all of Europe is gone.
The US economy tanking into severe depression will crash the global economy. European nations will be extremely vulnerable to right wing take overs by Russian backed political parties. Those that don’t go down that path can be invaded, with NATO effectively left in taters.
I also expect a complete genocide of the Palestinians, and a war between Israel and Iran that the US initially backs Israel in, but then leaves twisting in the wind once the fighting actually starts. Both countries will end up devastated by each other.
The entire world is at risk of being left in ruins.
This won’t work out for anyone, not even the oligarchs. All of the things that make life worth living, even for them, will be gone from the world.
We are rapidly going to be in the twilight of the human race. We will all become like Russia, and the consequences of everyone ending up like Russia is that no one gets to have anything nice, not even the people stealing everything not bolted down.
Chris
@Eolirin:
Last comment of the night:
I’ve said multiple times in Russia/Ukraine related conversations that Russia has resigned itself to the fact that it’s never going to be anything but a dumpster fire of a country and doesn’t even really want to be, so its strategy on the world stage is, rather than hoisting itself up, to bring everyone else crashing down.
Well…
Gloria DryGarden
Bridge over troubled water instrumental
Kathleen
On a positive note, Hamilton County Democrats were all re-elected to their county positions and it wasn’t even close. For the first time in the 50 plus years I’ve lived here a Democrat is now prosecutor (Connie Pillich). Most of the Party endorsed judges won. Greg Landsman was re-elected in OH#1 and thank you Water Girl and BJ people who supported him. Proud of my Blue pocket in a very red state.
I’m focusing on breathing as I freak out about everything else.
Gloria DryGarden
@strange visitor (from another planet): I’m hoping some of the guardrails slow it down.
of course I do hope the folks who voted for that male person get to FAFO, once they see they’re actually getting thiel, musk and Vance, and vlad P as their actual rulers. Once they realize they really won’t have to vote again.
I’d like to see some centrist/ liberal ownership of media, some big slow down of people’s buy in to nyt, wapo, the raging misinformation. I’d like these weird conservatives to catch on that trickle down didn’t work, and why are folks talking like it’s viable? There’s some way people don’t end up learning, but instead fall for the party line, repeating talking points. It’s very fatiguing.
You say you’re broke and dependent on Medicare, and this threatens the thin lifeline you hold onto. I’m there with you, different but similar. Not enough resources to retire. Lots of health things, baffling complexities. I’m reminded of the times of early Covid, when people said oh, we’re all in the same boat.
And the reply that reframed it was way more accurate:
we’re all in the same storm, but we are not all in the same boat.
Some people have yachts, or motor power, but others have row boats, and canoes, rafts, a log to cling to while cold, trying to stay afloat. It’s not pretty. May your way be smooth, may you receive the help you need.
JCNZ