Kamala Harris could've easily worked in a shot at Trump here but instead she didn't even so much as allude to him. She's turning the page. pic.twitter.com/c2ZHa7CQF3
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 4, 2024
Spread this far and wide! pic.twitter.com/iL86j70ojU
— Ally Sammarco (@Ally_Sammarco) November 5, 2024
Tim Walz just gave a rousing speech in Milwaukee without mentioning Donald Trump's name a single time
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.bsky.social) November 4, 2024 at 7:34 PM
If you encounter violence, threats, or intimidation at a polling place, call 911 immediately. After alerting local authorities, report the incident to the Justice Department.
For election-related complaints, contact the FBI: https://t.co/psjiI0c3qy pic.twitter.com/XyBx2H1Doz
— U.S. Department of Justice (@TheJusticeDept) November 4, 2024
"The @JoeBiden Administration promised to be pro-worker and pro-union, and it has fulfilled that promise. VP @KamalaHarris has played a major role in making this happen."
Here's how…https://t.co/bYfr2Wp9dJ
— UAW (@UAW) November 2, 2024
Want to watch election night like a professional? Here’s how to understand the results as they come in from different states. pic.twitter.com/yXoxPh8aiz
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 2, 2024
Either this post will be at top-of-page for the next six hours, or there will be a spatter of bigfooting where we all fall over each other’s Hawt Taeks. Who’s taking the odds?
On The Road – BeautifulPlumage – Troll Hunting in the PNW
lowtechcyclist
First!
ETA: Now I’ll go read the post.
Baud
Morning, AL. Just wanted to say you’ve been my morning rock for four years. Looking forward to celebrating with you tomorrow morning.
Velocifowl
She’s going to win. I put 100 on it. The question is by how much. Their will be challenges to it after. Ignoring all of that and waiting it out.
hrprogressive
Cast my Harris/Walz/Dem ballot before sunrise. Early voting wasn’t feasible in my locality so I chose morning of.
My personal precinct has often skewed older and more conservative, so at a precinct level, I’d be shocked if Kamala won.
But,
1) Far, far, far less visible support for any candidate in the neighborhood this year.
2) Definitely a lot of younger voters, though I cant reliably tell that all of them are Kamala voters.
I suspect my city will be blue, and Virginia, the state, almost certainly will be too.
Let’s make history again, for good reasons.
Baud
I’m looking forward to women, young people, and workers making clear that they’re not going to be natural serfs.
Chris
Two more votes for the Democrats. My roommate and I just came back from voting.
You know what the best part of voting this early is? None of the parasites waving pamphlets in your face and trying to tell you how to vote at the last minute are there yet.
hrprogressive
@Velocifowl:
I recall being concerned about electoral violence in 2022, and when the Dems pulled out a stunning rebuke and the “red wave” didn’t materialize and the GOP generally took their losses quietly.
I am hoping for similar results with this election.
Especially after that Iowa poll.
Jeffro
Outside poll observer shift going very quietly and pleasantly so far (knock on wood) in rural VA. :)
I probably should have brought a magazine or book; I did bring a notebook and pen, so maybe it’s time to write that Great American Novel? IT’S A SIGN
satby
@Baud: Seconded!! And I hope the only big footer is John, as is traditional. Because often the “hot takes” are pretty inane.
Rusty
I voted at 6 am when the poll in our town opened. No early voting in NH so this was my first chance to vote. (absentee only by excuse. Yes, I could have said I would out of town but this election has already been filled with so much falsehood I didn’t want to add any more) I arrived 5 minutes early, I was probably 200th in line. Another 50+ joined behind me before the doors opened. They were very efficient, so I was out in 10 minutes. By then the line of cars coming in to vote stretched down the very long school driveway and into the street. Our town population is only 12,000. People of all stripes are just ready to have this over. Reports from the town clerk were that the number of absentee ballots was very high. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had record high voting in town.
NotMax
Election Day on canvas.
And enjoy some hopeful music.
Ken
@Chris: Vote-by-mail is even better.
Weird thing, though — I didn’t get nearly the usual amount of campaign junk in my mailbox this year. I did move in July, so maybe they haven’t updated their lists yet — does the Post Office forward campaign mail?
Tinare
Trying to get my stomach to settle this morning so I can go vote. It’s actually unsettled, not related to any nerves. I think she’s got this, his ceiling is real and turnout is high. Will be on my way soon.
prostratedragon
“Fanfare for the Uncommon Woman” no. 1, Joan Tower
Chris
@Ken:
It might just be that they’ve gone digital. The amount of campaign junk I’ve gotten in the form of text messages this year has been massive, far far worse than any previous election season. Not that much in the mail, though, you’re right.
HinTN
@Baud: Mrs H forcefully reminded me that she came of age before Roe and that she’s damned sure (most) women do not want to go back there. Their granddaughters’ lives are at stake and they will vote accordingly.
hrprogressive
@HinTN:
Selzer’s poll in particular seemed to capture this dynamic quite starkly, and I would not be surprised to find that a lot of older women have collectively said “Fuck No” to going back to “pre-Roe”.
Baud
I did notice some reporting about polllsters updating their numbers in Harris’s favor lately, possibly to get with the margin of error.
I’m happy I’ve just ignored the polling all season. Don’t need that drama.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Good time to repeat something either Tony Jay or Bcrack has said in here over the last couple of weeks:
Instead of sparklers, here’s a shot I took of the Verona Arena at night a month ago:
https://flic.kr/p/2qs8E9g
Jeffro
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: who is this “we” he’s talking about?
”THEY” have embarrassed themselves. I refuse to take one bit of the weight for that.
ryk
I just got home from voting. Even in the pouring rain turnout is the heaviest I’ve ever seen in my little corner of Misery. Probably due to amendment 3, the abortion legalization question
NotMax
@Chris
It’ll show up in bulk at Thanksgiving, courtesy of DeJoy.
//
zhena gogolia
@Chris: same here
japa21
Working the polls in western suburbs oof Chicago. Rainy. Low turnout, but that may be due to the fact that 40% of the registered voters in the precinct voted early or by mail.
Baud
@Jeffro:
Agree. Enough with the constant introspection about how everything is terrible and hopeless.
JerseyBeard
Wife and I head out to vote in a few minutes. Very excited for our new Senator Kim!
Good luck to everyone voting today! Feeling optimistic.
NotMax
Repeated from downstairs.
John Oliver explains it all.
Baud
@JerseyBeard:
NJ will have the best Senate upgrade ever that doesn’t involve changing party.
TBone
I read “Hawt Taek” as “Hawk Tuah!”
YY_Sima Qian
Mailed in my absentee ballot over a month ago. I am glad to be sleeping through the voting day here in China, but will be awake for all of the balloting & whatever skulduggery the Repubs are sure to engage in throughout the night & all the way to inauguration.
Good luck to us all!
New Deal democrat
@hrprogressive: Did you see any evidence of any ground game for Jen Kiggans? As far as I know, there has been none, while the Democratic effort has been fairly intense.
And that is my impression nationwide as well. All of the ground came has been exclusively from the Democratic side.
Kosh III
Buttigieg/AOC 2032!
Percysowner
My kids went to vote at 7:30. The 6 year old went with them because he wanted to see how it is done. They warned him that he might have to stand in line for half an hour. With the turnout you guys are reporting, I’m thinking that might have been optimistic.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Jeffro:
I don’t disagree with that.
But try telling that to somebody from another country. We woke up in Venice (First World Problem) the morning after the 2016 election, saw the news, then decided to embark on a bacari crawl for the day. Everyplace we went it was clear we were ‘Murkins and the same encounter would commence:
“How could you elect that man? It’s like you elected Berlosconi only with nukes.”
Sure we could say “We didn’t vote for the clown” or “Note how our dumbass presidential voting system works” etc., but those nuances are lost to your average person outside the system.
We felt embarrassed *for our country*, I still do, which I think was the point of the quote, which upon reflection, didn’t come from Tony Jay. I really should put down who posts these when putting them into my clip file.
JerseyBeard
@Baud: Absolutely agree. I felt so fortunate when we got redistricted from Chris Smith to Andy. Now I get him as Senator? Yes please.
narya
Glad I voted early (as in two weeks ago)–the weather is cold, rainy, and windy. I’ll start my baking in awhile; I’m going to parbake the pizza crust so we can have it whenever we want. I think available toppings will include onions, garlic (roasted when I bake the election cake), tomato sauce, sausage (venison/pork), spinach, and cheese. Neither the cake nor the pizza will take all day, so I’ll probably find something to stream, maybe go for a run if the weather clears. Thank you to the front pagers and all of you jackals here; I am so grateful to have a home on the intertubes where it’s (usually) safe to meander.
gene108
@JerseyBeard:
I’m surprised by the lack of anything substantial his opponents has put together to try and win the seat.
I first heard Andy Kim in February 2018, at a meet and greet at the house of a supporter. There were several dozen people there. He seemed very genuine. Now he might become a Senator.
Edited for for autocorrect’s mistakes. 😉
TBone
@NotMax: my aunt went to high school with Todd 💙😍
New Deal democrat
FWIW, I would pay *zero* attention to any early exit poll data today.
Early voting has only become available in the last few elections, and has become increasingly popular with each new election. And was heavily skewed in favor of Dems during COVID in 2020, because GOPers did not believe in COVID precautions. This time around, GOPers have discovered they love it as well.
Which also means it has cannibalized Election Day voting, distorting it on a partisan basis as well.
In short: don’t obsess today. 24 hours from now, we’ll have a much better if incomplete idea of how everything has shaken out.
3Sice
The dipshit doomer sealions assigned to progressive sites…. are not handling current events well.
Scout211
Good morning jackals!
It’s still early here on the left coast but it feels like it’s going to be a good day for the nation. I am going to jump ahead of the national news and call California for Harris-Walz! 54 electoral votes for Kamala!
TBone
@3Sice: 😆😍
p.a.
Voted. Even had a vote for the school board, which had been all mayoral-appointees since the 1960s. Now 5 districts in Providence, 1 rep per, and 5 mayoral appointees. I voted for… the only candidate in my district that actually contacted me with a mailing😉. (There were 6 names on the ballot, vote for 1.) The mailing did hit issue points I agree with.
Ken
@NotMax: I don’t have time to watch the whole thing, but I sure hope all that “it’s gone on too long” sentiment translates into support for the woman with the four-month campaign over the man with the ten-year campaign.
lowtechcyclist
@Kosh III:
Man, we don’t know shit about what the landscape will be like in 2032, and who will look like our best candidate then. Eight years is an eternity in politics.
I remember a conversation in 1995 with a student of mine when Dan Quayle decided to ‘keep his powder dry’ and wait until 2000 to run for President. The student said that made sense, and I said pretty much the same thing to him: that four years was plenty of time for Quayle to become old news, and for newer faces to take the limelight.
And sure enough, four years later, GWB had totally bigfooted Quayle’s niche. Quayle ran, and nobody noticed.
hrprogressive
@New Deal democrat:
Kiggans had some signage in some areas. Cotter-Smasal not as much, but I’m not in the bluest part of where I am at, so I’m not surprised.
In terms of GOTV efforts? Honestly? Zip from either campaign that I physically saw.
Kiggans was only up 1 in the most recent polling so I am hoping a wave election can carry Cotter-Smasal to victory, but we will see.
Redistricting made VA02 redder, so, it’s a little less swingy than before Luria won it.
I am hopeful, but I admit I would not be shocked if Kiggans hung on. Just kind of how the district has gone over my lifetime.
Kosh III
If I could wave an electoral magic wand:
Voting is open for 14 days, 24/7
You can vote at any poll
Ranked choice(maybe)
Abolish the Electoral College
Consistent national standard
And???
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Scout211:
Despite my cynical post above, I agree. BillinPortlandMaine over at DK just posted his prediction for today and it seems pretty reasonable:
President: Kamala Harris 338 electoral votes to 200
Senate: 52 Democrats maintain the majority
House: Democrats go from 212 to 232, GOP goes from to 220 to 203
Hell, in this political climate, that’s a friggin landslide. My hopes are Tester gets back in, Rafael “Calgary!” “Ted” Cruz is shown the door and Harris takes with NC or GA.
The Audacity of Krope
Really looking forward to the results today, but when I get home I’m handing my phone over to my roommate until 11 so I can’t obsess over a mostly blank map for hours.
TBone
I just read some “election coverage” posted article at a tankie website. Pooty is really pushing hard on the “Americans are anxious and divided” gambit.
Let’s not give that gift to him. Let us say, nay, sing! in happy unison, GFY Pooty!
🎶😆
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BUWhlqItgus
Kosh III
@lowtechcyclist: I’m just wishing and hoping
Mayor Pete is no Dan Quayle
lowtechcyclist
@New Deal democrat:
Yeah, like after 2004 I’ll ever give early exit polls a grain of credibility ever again. That brief moment of hope, so quickly dashed.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: The first time we went to Europe, Nixon was president. That was embarrassing. The Canadians started putting their flag on their luggage so they wouldn’t be mistaken for Americans.
lowtechcyclist
@Scout211:
And good morning back atcha!
ETA: Where’s rikyrah this morning?
Following your excellent example, I’ll go out on a limb and call Maryland with its 10 EVs for Harris-Walz!
Betty Cracker
The lads are calm.
p.a.
Anecdotally it seems there’s been some slippage in the God-botherers-for-tRump brigade. That’s good. Those “apolitical” churches are reliable fascist GOTV organs.
TBone
PUSSY RIOT 🎶🔥💪
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XMQSVsDHGD8
The Audacity of Krope
We might never see a politician spell potato like that again.
Luther Siler
@lowtechcyclist: I will never forget being on a bus heading back to Chicago after a day of GOTV in Wisconsin and hearing that exit polls had us up in every swing state.
Ksmiami
I’ve gotten my foreign resident application ready. Truly a dismal moment in America and proof that we have an electorate problem. Sorry
Emmyelle
I think weed will be a better decision than alcohol tonight, for those who can not get through the evening without a little help.
This has been a public service announcement.
Chet Murthy
@Ksmiami: can I ask where to?
UncleEbeneezer
@Jeffro: This! Aside the Biden-So-Old bullshit, it’s really only Republicans ad the Media have embarrassed themselves. Democrats have come together, kept focussed, refused to take bait, played smart and worked hard. WE have nothing to be embarrassed about. And honestly I couldn’t be happier and more proud of US.
Hopefully we will get a big win today. WE deserve it!
The Audacity of Krope
@Emmyelle: 2016 was mushrooms for me. Went into my emergency supply when it became clear the predictions were all wrong.
Chris
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
I think what I find infuriating is having come of age in the George Dubya years and still having to deal with this bullshit.
It should have been obvious to anybody with two neurons to rub together all the way back in 2008 that the GOP had gone completely off the rails and that it needed to spend a minimum of twenty years drying off in the political wilderness until it was willing to come back. The fact that instead we’ve spent the next sixteen years giving them another bite at the apple, and another, and another, is a massive indictment of the political culture.
Math Guy
@lowtechcyclist: Ha!
gene108
@Kosh III:
I think the average poll worker is too old to want to deal with third shift.
Spanky
A warm and partly sunny day here in Maryland and the DC environs. Turnout should be good, though many of our neighbors joined us in early voting.
Agree that, absent a blue tidal wave, nothing will be settled today.
Here’s hoping it will be settled today.
3Sice
I expect Pop-Pop Murdoch will want to turn in, and have the drones at Fox under-bus pudding brain.
Phylllis
Rain here in the SC midlands coming up from the coast — and kind of out of nowhere. The forecast just two days ago was a 20% chance. Now it’s looking like rain until mid-afternoon. We’ve had record early voting across the state. The only overt campaign sign in our neighborhood is a ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ flag put up by our elderly, Navy vet neighbor a few days ago.
stinger
I voted!
I’d hoped to be the first one there, but a man was ahead of me. I joked that I’d vote faster than he, and would be the first to vote. But he finished before me.
There were a lot of people crowding in the door, for this small rural precinct, and a few may have been trying to vote before heading to work. But most were old farmers and other retirees like myself: early risers anyway. I don’t know if the short line of people waiting for one of the 5 polling booths has any sort of predictive meaning.
I was going to burn an hour at the gym and then get groceries, but instead I may just re-watch all three seasons of Astrid, secure in the knowledge that they are currently filming season 4.
Ksmiami
@Chet Murthy: italy
The Audacity of Krope
@Phylllis: I was supporting Brandon too. Maybe that man didn’t get the news…
New Deal democrat
@hrprogressive: Thanks.
Disappointing that there was no evidence of a ground game for D’s in your area.
jonas
The Canadian flag thing goes back that far? I always thought it became a thing during the Iraq War in the early 2000’s. W had squandered the goodwill many felt toward the US after 9/11 and you would get dirty looks and some hassle in a lot of places in Europe, esp after the idiot gets re-elected in 04.
Baud
@Chris:
Yep. Very frustrating set of years for us older folks. Hopefully, young people chart a better path for themselves.
Omnes Omnibus
Lake Michigan speaks…
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
Heh.
3Sice
@lowtechcyclist:
The Bob Shrum Special.
The Audacity of Krope
@Omnes Omnibus: When did we start picking our leaders based on farcical aquatic ceremonies?
Math Guy
Cold, rainy weather throughout MN today. We voted about 4 weeks ago, as soon as early voting began. Today I’m going to run errands, work on writing up problem sets for one of my classes, and stay chill. Bought a bottle of Cooper & Thief (red blend) for watching returns this evening.
Harris is going to win by large margins in both the popular vote and the electoral college. You can quote me on that.
Chris
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Honestly, I’ve got very little patience for that, and that was already true in 2016. Donald Trumps are popping up all over the world. It’s easy to point and laugh at the man himself, but none of the other ones are substantively different from him either in their policies or in authoritarianism, and really, I can’t even say they’re smarter than him.
“Oh no! How could you elect Berlusconi with nukes?” Well, you tell us. How many times have you halfwits elected Berlusconi? What are you saying, that if your country had nukes that would’ve made you responsible enough to vote differently? I find that hard to believe.
Chet Murthy
@Ksmiami: Are you able to do it b/c you have family roots there? I guess I’m asking how you’re doing it? Just for, y’know, reference.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Audacity of Krope: I believe it started in post-Roman Britain.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: Yeah, no fascists there.
Soprano2
I still feel good about today, even though I know most of the R critters will be elected or re-elected in MO. The hope is that Democrats can break the R supermajority in the state house. The R’s already have to work with D’s to get stuff passed because of our crazy version of the Freedom Caucus, but it would give D’s more say in what is debated and passes. I feel good about Amendment 3 that restores abortion rights to Missourians – it’s polled over 50% pretty much the whole time.
Political scientists will be studying the Harris campaign for decades, especially because she’s going to win. Look at the contrast in the last day rallies – hers were filled with happy people and high energy, his were half full and low energy, with people leaving because they’ve heard all the rambling before. It really has the look of a campaign that knows it’s going to lose. I swear, if Harris could promise to make TCFG go away after she wins I think she’d get 400+EV’s easy! People just want him to GO AWAY, like most losers do after an election.
The Audacity of Krope
@Omnes Omnibus: I thought the Magna Carta put paid to that.
Ksmiami
@Chet Murthy: wealth. Tbh
PST
I don’t know if anyone cares, but the absolute final running of the Nate Silver model gives Harris the tiniest of edges. Silver has been very critical of pollsters recently, and of course, since his model is built on polls, he is implicitly telling us that his model isn’t much use. He says that the percentage of poll results coming in at close to 50-50 is far higher than it should be if the population were actually 50-50. In a 50-50 world, polls should be more normally spread around the mean, not all clustered so closely. He accuses pollsters of manipulating their methodologies to avoid the embarrassment of an incorrect outlying result. Better for them to be in the safe middle with everyone else, or “herding,” as they call it. And so here we are with a narrative that suits most of the interested parties: too close to call. That is perfect for candidates’ efforts to motivate donors and voters right down to the last hour and the press’s efforts to capture our eyeballs.
The Audacity of Krope
What’s that? How do I get some? Should I really want it?
Yarrow
This seems insane to me. But maybe….
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: oh there are, but it’s a small but culturally rich place to distract yourself and they won’t outlaw birth control. Plus I’m so tired of being disappointed by America.
jonas
@Chris: I’ve encountered this at times abroad as well — a lot of Europeans esp. have this attitude that “Sure, we have our problematic politicians, too, but our countries don’t matter like the US matters.” And in a sense that’s true. Electing a crazy prime minister of Belgium isn’t going to threaten the world order like electing a crazy US President. But cumulatively, as more and more of these pro-Russia, anti-US, anti-immigrant parties gain traction in Europe, it’s going to be a real problem.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
The new Trump Tower:
https://imgflip.com/i/998qwb
Baud
@PST:
Sounds like the period of shilling for Theil has ended with election day.
Baud
@Yarrow:
My hope is that Texas women will say “Don’t mess with us.”
Ksmiami
@jonas: Democratic nations are superior in so many ways and yet so short lived in history.
O. Felix Culpa
Greetings from an elementary school voting site in Albuquerque! Got here at 6am to help set up. Voting is from 7am-7pm. We already have some people lined up outside, even though voting doesn’t start for another 20 minutes. NM exceeded 2020 early voting numbers, with Dems 10 points ahead, so we’re doing our part!
Baud
@O. Felix Culpa:
Excellent state.
jonas
@Ksmiami: Yep. “A republic, if you can keep it…”, as someone once said.
TBone
A hearty Fuck You from my heart to where yours should be, Karen and Diane. Your loser stink is foul. You’ll be wearing that stench for life, we will not forget you.
https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-mail-ballot-application-voter-eligibility-25313c36b425b1ca88ae193ec0bd2b17
We wrecked your shit with well over 80,000 PA votes last time, you dumbfuck losers.
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: Agreed. :-)
Tom Levenson
@Betty Cracker: I will try to emulate their fine sang froid.
New Deal democrat
FWIW, here’s my “fundamental” take on the election . . .
Starting with a comparison with 2016 and 2020.
In 2016, Hillary was a *very* disliked candidate (whether she should have been or not), and the economy was very weak, although not in recession. (Bad for D’s).
In 2020, Biden was more likable, and very intense anti-Trump feeling, especially with his mishandling of COVID. (Bad for GOPers).
This year, what has changed, to cause a change in result? Harris is not disliked. The economy generally is pretty good. And there is intense anti-GOP backlash about abortion. Plus there are some GOPers who have enough respect for Constitutional government for January 6 to have been a deal-breaker. None of this makes this year any better for Trump, and to some extent worse.
Trump *does* have the issue of inflation, for those like young prospective homebuyers who have been pushed out of the market, and those who didn’t switch jobs to get higher pay. Memories of his first term have faded somewhat, and there has been a fresh surge of immigration.
But Trump has had the anti-immigrant vote locked up for eight years. Those people did “come home” during the “Haitians eating cats” period in late September, but that doesn’t get him any new votes.
So the only *new* group of voters I think he picks up are young men (the Joe Rogan vote) who were in high school in 2016, and weren’t paying much attention during his first term. But those are low-propensity voters.
In other words, at the end of the day I don’t see any basis for Trump to significantly improve on his 2020 performance; and I think Dobbs is a very salient issue for Harris to improve on Biden’s performance.
Finally, in the past several weeks Trump and his team have *behaved* as if they believe they are losing, while Harris’s have behaved as if they think they are winning.
So, putting down a marker or two, my #1 scenario is that tonight will be somewhat of a mirror image of 2016, with at least one very surprising result called early against Trump. My #2 scenario is that we wake up tomorrow morning to a whole slew of States that are too close to call.
FWIW.
Ksmiami
@TBone: Seriously- wtf is wrong with Republicans?
Phylllis
@The Audacity of Krope: Hubby and I remain kind of mystified about the message and the timing. Counterprogramming maybe?
Shana
My precinct in Fairfax County Virginia had 30+ people in line waiting for the poll to open. Hasn’t happened in several years. There’s usually a few people but not this many.
BritinChicago
@Ksmiami: How will you deal with the post-retirement health-care issue? That always seems to me a big hurdle to emigrating as most countries have some form of health insurance which won’t cover you unless you’ve worked there for a certain number of years. (Or they just won’t let you in past a certain age.)
ETA Asking for a friend.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I saw “Conclave” yesterday. It’s a good movie, though since it’s about an election you may not find it as much of an escape as, say, watching Ted Lasso again.
Ksmiami
@BritinChicago: we will buy private insurance.
zhena gogolia
@Betty Cracker: 💜💜💜
Another Scott
Fingers crossed for today. I’m feeling like it will be a good day and a good week.
Dave Wasserman is just loving the polling. Horserace!!1
https://nitter.poast.org/redistrict
He seems sensible when it comes to looking at the actual vote totals, but, man, he just loves the polling stuff, and seems to be stuck in the 1980s “America is a center-right country” mindset.
Here’s hoping that our intuition about this not being a close election – at all – is correct.
Forward!! Run up the score!!
Cheers,
Scott.
H.E.Wolf
“My feet are tired, but my soul is rested.”
I’ve witnessed so many people (and not just Balloon Juice readers) doing small – and large – concrete things during this election cycle. Collectively, we’ve helped bend the arc of history toward justice, in behalf of the most vulnerable in our national community.
And regardless of the outcome in 2024, I’m taking my cue from the Black Americans of the Civil Rights Movement, through multiple decades of the 20th century: Stay and keep doing the work.
This book sustained me through 2017, gave me much-needed perspective, and bolstered my will to take action and persevere. It’s a series of interviews with a wide spectrum of people who were involved in the Civil Rights Movement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Soul_Is_Rested
New Deal democrat
@Ksmiami:
The Roman Republic survived 500 years. Venice survived over 1000. The Swiss Confederation has survived 700 years and is ongoing.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Chris: WE didn’t give them more opportunities to F-up the country. Half of the country wants it the GOP way (at least until they get their wish). WE can’t seem to convince them they are out of their collective minds.
BritinChicago
@Ksmiami: Thanks for letting me know. That would be very risky in this country (if you were sick with something expensive you might be refused coverage entirely) but I guess some countries have better laws about such things.
Ken
Which could mean the pollsters’ thumbs were reducing the Harris numbers and/or inflating the felon’s.
Or that Cancun trip still rankles.
Omnes Omnibus
@H.E.Wolf:
I’ll panic when Black women panic. My mantra for this election season. It’s working so far.
satby
@jonas: It was common during the Viet Nam war. I was in Denmark and Swedan in 1971 and not only did Canadians put their flags on their luggage, but my friend and I also claimed to be Canadian to people we met.
hrprogressive
@New Deal democrat:
Well, I want to be super clear –
Without doxxing myself too much, I live in the greater Hampton Roads area. Of the 7 cities, I reside on the “south side”, so I am in the Portsmouth/Chesapeake/Norfolk/Virginia Beach portions of the region.
I did not see a lot of ground game in my specific precinct, but to be clear, I observed next to no political canvassing at all for any races – and there are a lot of local elections this year, not just Federal.
I don’t get out much, so it is quite possible it existed, and I just did not see it.
It is also possible that my specific area just didn’t get much activity.
I do not recommend taking my word, which has limited scope, as evidence of a “lack of ground game” from the Democratic House Candidate.
I know for a fact she was out and about campaigning in other parts of the area. News coverage made that clear.
She had signs out, and TV ads.
My hyper-local experience is unlikely to provide many trends, IMO.
I think Smasal can pull it out with blue wave coat tails but we’ll see.
Ksmiami
@BritinChicago: we pay out of pocket in the us…insurance here in the us is designed to take in premiums and deny coverage. Plus buying property outside the US may be a good diversification play. If Trump gets in, the US will head for a massive depression.
Soprano2
@Ksmiami: It’s not just us though, look at what’s happened in several European countries. I think it’s mostly panic about immigration from non-white countries.
ETA – and the Philippines and Brazil and Argentina, and probably other countries I don’t know about.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yup. Always look to the base of the Democratic Party for the guidance.
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊 😊 😊
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Ksmiami
@New Deal democrat: Rome was an empire and very few people had the Rt to vote. The Venetian empire (was mostly a maritime duchy with loosely affiliated city states) and the others are homogeneous and small.
H.E.Wolf
As a data-entry nerd, one thing I noticed this year, as the Harris-Walz campaign got underway: the sudden and drastic drop-off in the activity of right-wing trolls creating fake sign-ups in the Democratic database.
I wonder if the right-wing rank and file are more disheartened than they publicly admit?
Omnes Omnibus
@Soprano2:
Eh, we should probably be happy that they are in their “America sux” doomer mood instead of their “Kill ’em all” eliminationist mood.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: I keep thinking about the conversation between William Sherman and Ulysses Grant after the first day of Shiloh:
And they did.
H.E.Wolf
@rikyrah:
Joyful morning!
cmorenc
@Chris:
We’ve been getting both D and R election campaign fliers in our mailbox, though the volume is down from past elections. (Even though we’ve owned the house since 2005, the former owners were R but the address is still on some of their lists).
The R campaign lit for local elections is very educational. Otherwise, I would have never known that the D state house candidate I met at a precinct D meeting had voted to let dangerous illegal aliens out of jail to get free transgender sex-change operations. And she sure looked different in the Goth-flavored B&W photo in the R lit than what she looked like in person in full living color at the meeting.
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: I appreciated this sentiment the first time you posted it, and I’ve adopted it for myself.
Tim C.
@Yarrow: Newsweek… all click bait. Don’t fall for it.
The Audacity of Krope
In 2020, my Trumpy former high school bestie was bribing me for my vote and, when that failed, started sending death threats. This year he has been sending pictures of his Saint Bernards.
evodevo
@Ken:
Not unless it’s first class – most political mail is “junk” (standard – STD) mail. I’m surprised you didn’t get a lot of “current occupant” stuff, since about 20 percent of mine had my name or current occupant. STD mail isn’t usually forwarded. I think the campaigns are moving to email or social media markets for their political ads.
H.E.Wolf
@Omnes Omnibus: “@H.E.Wolf: I’ll panic when Black women panic. My mantra for this election season. It’s working so far.”
@Geminid:
@Omnes Omnibus: I keep thinking about the conversation between William Sherman and Ulysses Grant after the first day of Shiloh:
Sherman: Well Grant, we’ve had the devil’s own day.
Grant: Yes. Lick ’em tomorrow, though.
And they did.”
My thanks to each of you. As always, I appreciate your pragmatic optimism and the lift it gives to my spirits.
ETA: Quotation format fail. Hope I fixed it.
rikyrah
I work downtown. Near the Chicago Board of Elections. They have two locations where you can vote. BOTH of them were literally around the block last NIGHT. It was stunning.
Starfish
@TBone: Same, and I hate myself just a little for doing that.
Baud
@rikyrah:
👍
Scout211
Some good legal news this morning.
Another Scott
@H.E.Wolf: I’ve told the story about a couple of houses in our subdivision that had huge Tmurp banners up until January 6, 2021. Then they suddenly disappeared.
I think a bunch of Trumpers saw that and finally decided that was too far.
Dobbs only added to the Nope-ing.
There are far too many in the GQP cult, but lots of people left.
He won’t do as well as he did in 2020, is my prediction.
Thanks for all you do. Your determination, and advocacy, and work in the trenches is greatly appreciated.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Harrison Wesley
I suspect that the bus I take to the doctor’s office will be mobbed today, since it stops right in front of the Supervisor of Elections’ office. So I didn’t avoid the crowd by voting early, after all.
New Deal democrat
@Ksmiami: We’ll disagree on that.
Have a happy and good Election Day!
narya
@rikyrah: Wow–and we’re not even a swing state!
dmsilev
@The Audacity of Krope:
“Vote for Trump or the dogs get ‘Noemed'” maybe?
sab
Solomon the enormous cat came up from the basement early this morning and sat and watched tv with my husband. The pitbull was asleep on the floor beside them.
Husband still has not seen Echo. Only her eyes under the bed.
Bupalos
@Jeffro: I’ll take the other tack, since “I don’t consider myself to be in the same country as THEM” is a stance that ultimately helps the enemies of democracy:
This. Ain’t. Easy.
The rate of social change and distintegration, spiraling inequality, smartphones frying brains, decades of underinvestment in our kids, the overhanging doomish clouds of global warming… every country on the globe is being tested now and throwing off some very weird and disturbing answers. By whatever whisker we can keep our homegrown post-truth right-wing authoritarian populist from scrambling things up even worse, we can be both grateful and proud. We’re coming out of a very privileged and stable period of history into some very troubled social and political waters and it’s a shock. But we’ve got some real strengths and exceptional people (like MVP) and maybe we should leave room for the idea that we’re actually pretty awesome.
Scout211
Nice.
Mark’s Bubbie
@JerseyBeard: Me too! (To think it might have been Tammy Murphy!) I so hope Conaway will be my next rep. Fingers crossed.
Starfish
@lowtechcyclist: I remember when Howard Dean came to the campus I was on, and we were asking him about immigration. It just wasn’t part of the Democratic platform at that time.
narya
@Another Scott: Sarah Longwell was talking about this months ago–a lot of Republicans were really horrified by J6. That’s where I think Cheney (and Kinzinger) on the J6 Committee and all of the others speaking out lately is helpful. I’ve even seen an ad here in Blue-City with a bunch of regular-guy men saying they’ve never voted D before but they are this time.
Baud
@Scout211:
Good. We need people who will literally twist arms.
The Audacity of Krope
@dmsilev: For real, though, he loves those dogs. He also isn’t the only Trumpet I know who has been comparatively muted this year; people who have been noisy assholes going back to Ron Paul or further.
H.E.Wolf
@Another Scott:
Thank you for the kind words! And please allow me to return the compliment.
Your “Forward!”s, and your ongoing reminders of hopeful signs at any given time, always cheer me up and renew my energy.
Starfish
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I remember during the GWB presidency, many people in the US started putting Canadian flags on their luggage so we wouldn’t be mistaken for supporting the war.
Starfish
@Betty Cracker: I love them so much. I don’t “squee” out loud when you post pictures, but I do “squee” in my heart.
dmsilev
Here’s some cheery news. Maybe a harbinger of how things will go, let’s hope:
MattF
Got email this morning from my local (Montgomery County Maryland) election board that my mail-in vote has been counted. So, it’s done.
H.E.Wolf
Thank you to everyone who is reporting what it looks like in your locales. It’s more informative than turning on the news!
The two-person Electoral-Vote blog team will be live-blogging. They’re a computer scientist with a passion for voting data, and an American History professor with a passion for clear explanations.
https://electoral-vote.com/
brendancalling
Voted in person early this morning. Handing out literature at a different nearby polling place, and a pretty Trumpy area of Philly at that. It’s giving me anxiety just being near these freaks. I might break around 10 for a mental health break.
mali muso
@Scout211: Love to see that! Reminds me of when I was volunteering on the 2008 Obama campaign at my local office in Virginia. Since we were a swing state that year, we would see groups coming in from DC and MD to help us canvas over the weekends and on the big day. That same enthusiasm and hard work is going to make the difference this time.
Bupalos
@lowtechcyclist: I’ll go further than that on the theme of political change in this destabilized period: don’t sleep on the possibility that politics accelerates; that incumbency becomes recognized as a liability and that parties stop relying on it.
cmorenc
@Chris:
Remember those billboards back during Obama’s presidency with George Dubya’s picture on it + “Do you miss me yet?” While of course, during Obama’s presidency my answer would have been “Hell, no”, during Trump’s term had a magic genie given me the option to swap back in Dubya for Donald, I would have gladly taken him up on it. (In this fantasy, the genie didn’t give me the option to swap in Clinton or any other D, only Dubya).
Frankensteinbeck
@dmsilev:
When you rely on day-of-election voting, you do not want your voters to be apathetic the night before. Bad, bad sign – for him.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@dmsilev:
Piece at DK yesterday along the same lines:
https://www.dailykos.com/blogs/main?page=2
But, very nice to see our Failed Political Media Corpse reporting along the same lines. I read something else yesterday from somebody assigned to Hair Furor’s campaign noting how things have nosedived over the last two weeks.
Bupalos
Thinking a bit more about the thinner Trump crowds… it might be explained by him clustering rallies closer together in time and location.
Joey Maloney
It’s a beautiful day here, sunny, warm, and breezy, but that’s of limited relevance because “here” is twelve time zones away from where my ballot is counted, and anyway I voted via email a month ago. :-)
Because of the time zone thing most of the tv news manufactured drama will take place while I’m asleep – though when I have to get up in the night to pee (twice now most nights, some nights three, this is what happens when your prostate is the size of a beachball) I will probably be unable to resist switching on MSNBC for a few minutes.
Hoping for a real blowout so that when I get up for work tomorrow when it’s about midnight on the East Coast, all the big races will have been called.
Parfigliano
I’m in the reddest part of the red corner of NM. Far far fewer Trump signs, flags, bumper stickers then last go round.
Geminid
@hrprogressive: I believe that the 2nd CD was rated R+2 after the last round of redistricting, and as previously configured was a 50-50 district. I think that Jen Kiggans beat Elaine Luria by 3 or 4 points in 2022.
One thing I keep in mind, though is that these ratings are based primarily on results in two very different elections: the 2020 Presidential election, when Biden carried Virginia by 10 percentage points, and the 2021 Governor race when Youngkin won Virginia by 2 points.
This is to say, who knows what the basic partisan make-up is? It’s a closely divided district to be sure, and results could be a somewhat of a “bellwether” for other battleground House races. The 2nd has an unusually large amount of active and retired military voters, but otherwise it has a lot in common with other suburban-based purple districts across the country.
Results should come in fairly early tonight. The 7th Virginia CD where I live might also be another good indicator since it’s an open seat, but results there may be skewed by Eugene Vindman’s funding advantage.
TBone
@Ksmiami: they’ve known all along, this whole entire time that they lost popular vote in 2016, and they’ve been losing ever since and so all they have is crying and trying to cheat. Cowards to a one!
Ironcity
@Dorothy A. Winsor: First time I went to Europe got stopped by Americans on Princess St. Edinburgh for directions to the Caledonian Hotel. Another time Ms Ironcity and I standing on a street corner in Novosibirsk passing local asked us if the bus to i forget where had left yet. I replied “Niet Rus, englis.” and the local lady said something about there goes the neighborhood.
Almost Retired
Just got up on the West Coast. First thing I did was check to see if Trump was still speaking in Grand Rapids. Holy Mother of God, I went to bed before he was done, and I’m on Pacific Time.
All of my efforts today are in CA-27, the only Congressional seat held by the Republicans in Los Angeles County. Incredibly, we ran the same mediocre candidate against Mike Garcia three times. The new candidate, George Whitesides, has run a good campaign and there appears to be a decent ground game. With any luck, not a single one of Los Angeles County’s 10 million residents will be represented by a Republican in Congress.
And, of course, Schiff’s going to beat Shoeless Joe Jackson, or whatever his name is.
TBone
@Starfish: I never hate my own self, we all have a dark side and I’m never ashamed of that. All of us are built that way and so acknowledging it and fixing it by any means we can find, especially joking about our own selves, is to be commended. Life would be really boring otherwise!
Renie
My friend’s grand daughter came home from kindergarten and told her Mom that she told her friend Jack she was voting for the “girl” and Jack said he was too cuz the boy is a stinkbug!! Out of the mouths of babes.
TS
@PST:
Nate is worried about his own system – it doesn’t work. He has had trump winning the whole time & is covering his own a… with this latest discussion.
Geminid
@Parfigliano: How’s it looking in the Vasquez/Herrell race? Will the fourth time be the charm for Yvette Herrell? Seems doubtful to me, but I live 1700 miles away from NM02.
Bupalos
@Yarrow: The Alaska Survey Research?
My first explanation for this kind of stuff is that people have personal incentives to sell hopium through the algorithm.
S Cerevisiae
File under signs and portents: I was having my morning wake and bake when my red bic lighter ran out of gas, I reached blindly into the pack in the drawer and pulled out the next lighter- beautiful bright blue.
She’s got this, it’s going to be beautiful.
Geminid
@Almost Retired: I could see how district Democrats would run that candidate the third time, since she came within a few hundred votes on her 2nd try in 2020. But George Whitesides does seem like a stronger candidate than she proved to be.
Chris
@PST:
@TS:
The impression I get is that pollsters have realized their models are getting less reflective of reality, but they don’t know how to fix them, so instead they’re “correcting” them to ensure that they aren’t too far from all the other pollsters’ conclusions, so that at least if they’re wrong, they get to say “well, we were all wrong!” so that at least it’s not their model specifically that’s flawed.
(That’s not counting the push polls that are just straight partisan fraud, of course).
hrprogressive
@Geminid:
I think you’re correct about the above. I am pretty sure IIRC that even VA Beach went Biden in 2020 which is somewhat wild given the heavy military concentration.
The swing back to Youngkin in 2021 was honestly almost a fluke. Youngkin lied his ass off, and getting Terry McAullife, Again? was an awful choice to run against him.
I believe the 2nd *can* swing back to blue, especially if the enthusiasm for Kamala trickles down for enough, and that seems way more likely with her than it might have, had Biden not dropped out.
I suspect Vindman will take the 7th.
I also suspect Spanberger will be our next governor.
I’d really love a shock result in the 5th where internecine fighting among the GOPers might have left enough bad blood for the Dem to sneak thru.
But I wouldn’t bet money on that one, haha.
Omnes Omnibus
@S Cerevisiae: And you didn’t even have to get your hand all yucky from bird entrails.
TS
@Ksmiami:
They can’t win fair – so they look to any other method to win. Can’t gerrymander a state wide vote – so voter suppression is what they are left with. Unbelievable that states allow anyone to “challenge” any votes. Sooner the US can get Federal Voting Laws the better.
Gloria DryGarden
@S Cerevisiae: that is the omen of the day. Hold that up like a light!
(ahem)
jonas
@Almost Retired: WTF were CA Republicans thinking by running Garvey? He barely even campaigned. Laziest damn candidate of all time.
Betty
Just saw a cousin announcing on Facebook that he voted. He is why I say, no, don’t encourage everyone to vote. Hardcore Trumper. Oh well. That is democracy.
rikyrah
I Smoked You Garbage Trump Supporters
@BlackKnight10k
Now that you’ve seen both Obama and Harris campaign to perfection, you understand why we say Black people have to be twice as good just to get half the credit
9:10 PM · Nov 4, 2024
·
151K
Views
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
At some point, we need to do a Missouri Juicer get together, and toast Ozark. There was one years ago that I didn’t go to. I have regrets.
Gloria DryGarden
There was a marvelous rendition of let the sun shine in, from Hair, but it was on Facebook, and I went looking for it on YouTube. So far haven’t found a version I liked, to link here.
martha
Just put a batch of cranberry orange scones, made with sourdough discard, into the oven. The house smells wonderful. Clam chowder and fresh bread for dinner. Working on breathing…deep cleansing breaths.
Thanks to everyone for fighting the righteous fight. Onward and forward.
Omnes Omnibus
It’s Fuck Fascism Day
Fake Irishman
@H.E.Wolf:
Amen I say to you.
No matter what happens today and this week, there will be work to be done.
Wisconsin has a Supreme Court election in march 2025. We need to keep that majority.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Provide enough notice and I’d try to make it from Denver.
jonas
@hrprogressive: I’ve been rather amused by the brouhaha in the Vindman race where his GOP opponent, a single guy, put out a bunch of campaign literature showing him posing with a wife and two kids — all fake. WTF? I guess when the top of the ticket is going around saying childless people are the nation’s sorrow or whatever, whaddya gonna do?
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Election Day crime! Somebody ripped the stuffing out of a seat cushion on the front porch at 3 am!
The dog tried to tell me but I just told him to go back to sleep.
Any theories? Somebody nesting? Way too much mess to be a mouse. Squirrel? We do have foxes but that doesn’t seem like foxy behavior.
Also there are definitely deer in the neighborhood and Sammy would react that way to a deer. But what would a deer want with a seat cushion?
Omnes Omnibus
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Woodchuck or raccoon.
SiubhanDuinne
@The Audacity of Krope:
Pete can spell potato in seven or eight languages!
jackmac
@PST:
Nate Silver is indeed covering his ass. The one I’m surprised at is Rasmussen, which in the past has aligned their fake poll results more in line with the rest as Election Day neared. According to the Real Clear Politics collection of polls this morning, Rassmussen is still plus-3 for Trump.
Gloria DryGarden
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: wait what? Two democrats canceled fair voting right? I need to catch up, I missed something, probably from before I started paying attention to this stuff.
Kirk
I don’t know if this was already posted but I think it too important to wait to read all.
This LINK is to the Democratic phone bank for curing votes. That is, already voted but there’s a problem. If you’re looking for one more thing to do, or just something that isn’t doomscrolling, it’s my suggesting for the most impactful thing you can do.
arrieve
I woke up in a panic this morning. Then one of my ESL students who became a citizen a few months ago sent a picture to the class with her “I Voted” sticker. And everyone was so excited for her.
Another student who registered for the first time was upset because she got a letter yesterday and couldn’t understand it. It said that she didn’t have a valid signature on her registration. She sent me a copy of the letter and it said she couldn’t use a voting machine but she could vote by affidavit. I found her polling place online–turns out it’s her son’s school and just around the corner from her home–and told her to take the letter there and they will help her (and hopefully they will have an Arabic translator). Another student who is working as a Chinese translator at a different polling place sent her pictures of the signs to show her where to go.
And I feel so much better now. THIS is America. This is what we are voting for. No matter what happens, this is worth fighting for.
Jeffro
🤣🤣🤣
Gloria DryGarden
@rikyrah: they go flawless, you go lawless
and no, it is not fair. So infuriating
Almost Retired
@jonas: My guess is that the Republicans figured they didn’t have a chance to win the Senate seat given our “top two” primary (with Schiff, Barbara Lee and Katie Porter in the race).
So they went with a conservative “celebrity” as a sacrificial lamb with name recognition. Scott Baio moved to Florida, so Garvey was the best they could dredge up. One could almost forget there was a Senate election in California, given the level of activity.
Baud
Via reddit, apparently Mickey Rourke is not a fan of Trump’s.
Gloria DryGarden
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: raccoons destroyed my porch swing cushions
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: Let’s make every day “Fuck Fascism Day.”
Chet Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: Cinemansion
Gloria DryGarden
@arrieve: awesome
Almost Retired
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: JD Vance?
Jeffro
@hrprogressive: ditto re: VA-05
💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
Geminid
@hrprogressive: I thought Terry McAuliffe was a good enough candidate to beat Youngkin, but I was unimpressed by his campaign. Several of my Democratic friends thought McAuliffe was overconfident, and I thought so too.
On the other hand, Youngkin was the best candidate for statewide office Republicans fielded in the last two decades (not counting John Warner), and Republicans were hungry. Youngkin also had a good team running his campaign that made the most of a narrow path to victory.
I still thought McAuliffe would win, but I wasn’t too surprised at result. I could see how Youngkin was a strong candidate, the kind who could attract the Independents who still hold the balance of power in this state.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Omnes Omnibus: Plausible I guess, though I’ve never seen either one here. They might be good at staying hidden.
2liberal
I’m going to start drinking about 3pm AZ time and get my attitude adjusted. I’ll check in here about 10 pm. Whatever happens I want to hear about it from my fellow jackals. I usually don’t drink alcohol other than my biweekly family zoomers (it makes me more talkative) but today will be an exception.
hrprogressive
@jonas:
Yeah that whole fake family thing is one of the saddest, and funniest, “own goals” I’ve seen in a long time.
Jeffro
@narya: seconded!
Gloria DryGarden
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Ándale! Viva!
bbleh
Was at Kamapalooza Philly last night. Unbelievably ideal weather. Harris didn’t get there ’til around 11:30, looked a little tired at first (can’t imagine why) but gave a very solid speech.
Key thing for me was the crowd:
— Heavily women. Many on their own or in groups. Even mixed groups tended to have more women. Lotta kids too.
— Very “ordinary on the street” demographics otherwise: races, ages, white/blue-collar — I thought “huh, how Philly.”
— VERY chill, friendly, and well-behaved. Very little grumbling even at the lines (3+ hours) or the wait (another 3+), no over-the-top enthusiasm or obvious anxiety. Lots of chat in the lines, including about politics (surprise!) but almost all “yeah doin’ this, it’s cool” and very very little “omgomgomg what’s gonna happen?!”
All in all, another point for guarded optimism.
TBone
A good read while we wait, plus this goes in the Lest We Forget annals – it is in direct violation of our Constitution:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/justice-alitos-royalist-cosplay.html
FUCK THAT GUY and the horse’s ass he rode in on!
Soprano2
I’m going to vote after work because that ended up being the most convenient thing for me. Reports I’ve heard from other people were that the waiting times at the early voting sites here were between 60 and 90 minutes, which is another reason I didn’t vote early. I usually don’t have to stand in line at all. This was the first year for early no-excuse voting in MO; I think they were surprised by how popular it was. Turns out people like to be able to vote when it’s convenient for them rather than on one Tuesday in November, who could have guessed that? /s/s/s/s/
frosty
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I was on a Railpass walkabout in 1977 and I got so pissed at the Canadians that I bought an American flag and sewed it onto my backpack.
Mostly hung out with Aussies and Kiwis and they didn’t care.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: sinema and m? Those betraying creeps…
TBone
@bbleh: I love your Philly field reports, thank you! 💚🖤
hrprogressive
@Geminid:
I think Youngkin did speak to a lot of “anti COVID vibes” people – those who thought stay home orders and virtual school was a bridge too far.
He also lied a lot about CRT which conspicuously hasn’t been a huge electoral issue since, hm, wonder why.
McAullife came with baggage of being a rich white guy, a former governor, and Being Associated With The Clinton’s. He absolutely thought he was a shoo-in, and he was wrong.
Spanberger won’t make those same mistakes.
frosty
@lowtechcyclist: 2004 was my first canvassing. I was working the 4 to 8 evening shift and telling people at the doors that Kerry would win it. I don’t say anything like that to anyone any more.
Gloria DryGarden
@Soprano2: i hope you don’t have a hundred ballot issues like we did in Colorado. Ok, only 24.
Chet Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: i don’t address Traitors by their correct name. They get whatever slur or insult seems most amusing or convenient at the time.
Steve in the ATL
This post title reminded me of a song from way back before MTV ruined the Cars:
All I Can Do
Also mistyped “you tube” as “you rube” and wondered if that is an actual republican web site.
Albatrossity
Poll observer here in flyover country this morning. Steady stream of votes since polls opened.
TBone
Over at Digby’s place:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/11/05/out-before-dawn/
You know what’s coming but this bats it off the shelf like a cat would!
TBone
@Steve in the ATL: I love that song very much.
Gloria DryGarden
@bbleh: are you in Philly? As a little, I lived in Philly. Maybe you can help me figure out my counties, where I lived, so I can root for a few places over there. Every now and then someone spots a bit of Philly accent on me. This is a good day to claim it.
i lived in Levittown, landsdowne, and upper Gwynnid township. Do you know what counties they are in?
Betty Cracker
I foolishly turned on Morning Joe for background noise while doing some meal prep for later. Lasted about 3 minutes — click! They weren’t especially doomy, but they don’t know anything and have lots of airtime to fill, and they aren’t the first string airtime fillers on that network, IMO.
Anyhoo, I’ve been watching some episodes of Elsbeth on Paramount+ to while away some insomniac hours and intend to return to that as a diversion. Thanks to whoever it was here who recommended it during a recent TV thread. It’s a fun show — Columbo-like in a good way.
I’m going to try to stay away from election coverage until 6 PM unless something notable happens. It’s just pointless in a way that jangles my nerves. I don’t need that bullshit.
Soprano2
@Bupalos: I think that’s part of it, but also I think a lot of his supporters are bored. There’s nothing more shocking he can say than the stuff he’s been saying the past couple of months.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: I wasn’t correcting, just making sure I was catching on..
slur on, rip them to shreds with interesting insults of sharpened steel…
Gloria DryGarden
@TBone: there was an article about election denial fraud stuff in Georgia. Link in prev thread
hueyplong
@Almost Retired: I especially savor those moments when someone like you reminds me that I had totally forgotten Steve Garvey exists and could do so again without a medical diagnosis following on the heels of the event.
Parfigliano
@Geminid: I got redistricted out of Vasquez district into Ledger-Fernandez when the Leg kneecapped the GOP and cut much of Roswell out of the 2nd District.
BritinChicago
@Ksmiami: I take the points about health insurance here, and also about property.
“If Trump gets in, the US will head for a massive depression.” Quite a few very smart people thought that in 2016 and were quite wrong (at least until the bungled Covid response). The Obama recovery (too slow, but real) was chugging along, the tax-cuts gave it a boost and also boosted corporate profits (but greatly worsened the deficit) and the axing of some regulations also helped some corporations (though often at a significant social cost). This time might be different if he’s serious about the extent of tariffs, but that seems unknowable at this point.
I see the markets are up today, after a lackluster few days or worse. What do you make of that? A good sign for MVP? A bad sign? (Or an independent development?)
Chet Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: yep, yep, I didn’t think you were correcting: I was just continuing to express my contempt for them. We could have passed voting rights, expanded the court, protected abortion. But those two bastards ……
Baud
Via reddit, morning pick me up.
Sister Golden Bear
Blech. Recruiter called me at 6 a.m. Dude, I know you’re in NYC, but West Coast time exists.
Toss and turned before finally accepting I’m too nervous to get to the little sleep I already had. Currently sitting with the coffee IV so that I’m semi-awake.
Gloria DryGarden
@Steve in the ATL: i love the cars….yay.
OId Man Shadow
It’s “cake or death” day in America… again.
Let’s check in with American voters:
“I like cake, but you know… it’s not my favorite, so I voted death!”
“What kind of cake is it? Cause that’s very important to me.”
“Does everyone get cake? Because some of you don’t deserve cake!”
Alright, and while we wait for the results, we hope the rest of the voters are significantly smarter than our sampling, Chuck.
sab
@frosty: Aussies used to love us because we came to their rescue in WWII when Churchill kept their guys in N Africa while the Japanese were almost on their beaches. We have since squandered that goodwill.
geg6
Sitting in the parking lot at our polling site, which is jammed. Lotsa MAGATs locally, though, so no idea what it means. I voted early by mail, but John forgot to request his, so here I am , sitting here waiting for him. It’s taking a while.
All I’ve been doing lately is waiting. Waiting for plumbers to snake our sewer line, waiting for the gas, sewer and water authorities to mark up their lines since the snaking didn’t work and a camera pointed to a larger problem outside and waiting for the contractor to come and start digging tomorrow. I’m so over all this and my election anxiety on top is not making for a good mental health day.
hueyplong
@jackmac: Maybe Rasmussen has a different task this time. Instead of conforming at the last minute to maintain credibility for future elections, they have to show Trump ahead as part of the “evidence” for his legal challenges.
catclub
How about a fox trying to get at a mouse in the cushion?
Mel
@martha: That sounds delicious!
Pumpkin pie and chicken with dumplings happening here this evening.
All hail comfort food…
bbleh
@Gloria DryGarden: Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery, respectively. Recent chatter suggest that, if you wanna keep an eye on one of them, make it Bucks. Remember tho that PA may not COUNT mail-in ballots until AFTER the polls CLOSE, so results are gonna be late and subject to the usual “mirages.”
3Sice
@Ken:
Yesterday Cruz cracked out of turn and went after McConnell about a lack of resources.
You hate to see it…
Marmot
@Omnes Omnibus: This is my new thing.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: it’s inexcusable. I hope she gets pregnant
Melancholy Jaques
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s such a cool picture. The Great Lakes – beautiful and scary.
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: The guest stars on Elsbeth are so good. I haven’t seen any of it this season but I particularly enjoyed the one with Jesse Tyler Ferguson chewing up the scenery last season. I’ve heard the Nathan Lane one this season is good. He’s good in everything.
schrodingers_cat
Already voted last Thursday. And have signed up for the Virtual Field Office for ballot curing in Michigan. Wish me luck
Lincoln Project had a question as to why you were voting:
My answer:
I became a naturalized citizen so that I could vote. This is my home and I wanted a say in how it was run.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Awesome. Thank you.
Chris
@sab:
There’s a longstanding notion as well of Australia and America being more like each other than they are any other nation on Earth; they share the English language, the continent-sized country, the settler-colonial history, and the experience of being built out of Europe’s dregs (America as a magnet for political malcontents and economic refugees, Australia with the history as a penal colony).
Of course, just because they have a family resemblance doesn’t mean the Australians are necessarily happy about it these days.
Hungry Joe
Yesterday: Drove to Yuma (three hours) with a friend. I knocked on 149 doors. Not many people home, but I left a lot of lit — door hangers, etc. Drove home.
Big victory coming, and we’re all a part of it.
lowtechcyclist
@Kosh III:
Nonetheless, one should not expect things to look the way they do now six or seven years down the road. Why hope that everything changes so little?
Six and a half years ago, I’d never heard of either AOC or Buttigieg. I’m impressed by them both. There are going to be other people who impress the hell out of us between now and the spring of 2031 when people start declaring their candidacies for 2032. Silly to wish them away.
Gloria DryGarden
@geg6: when I snaked my sewer and it didn’t work, the sewer guy said I might need to get them jetted, but it was a lot of money, so he said to try to jet it myself with a bladder from the hardware store first, while things were loosened up from the snake.
I bought a sewer bladder at the hardware store, and religiously run it for 30 minutes spring and fall. Won’t work if it’s tree roots. Cost $10. The jet thing would have been $800.
citizen dave
@Kosh III:
I’ve had similar thoughts this cycle. Might be hard to standardize all aspects (Yes, 3d shift voting doesn’t seem doable), due to personnel, population density, etc. But at the very least I would love to see a Federal law standardizing the days for “election season”.
And of course abolishing the EC is the #1 improvement we could make for all issues.
Surprised and wondering if the Puerto Rico hoo-ha could catalyze statehood for the island; and D.C. too.
Mostly wanted to say–as I do occasionally–that I found this fantastic community in December 2016–wanting somewhere to cope and saw a list of linked places, and the name sounded interesting. Kudos, sanity and the most grateful of thoughts to all Jackals, front pagers, and the Blogfather. Today is going to be a great day.
ETA: “Women are not without electoral or political power”: Samuel Alito
Ironcity
@Geminid:
“I still thought McAuliffe would win, but I wasn’t too surprised at result. I could see how Youngkin was a strong candidate, the kind who could attract the Independents who still hold the balance of power in this state.”
McAuliffe seemed to run a lower energy campaign than was needed to beat Gov fuzzy vest. The Rs have a stock tactic of setting up straw men of trans, LGBTQ, abortion, whatever things at a strategic time, usually using astroturf as a component, and lying their heads off so if you didn’t know any better it sounds reasonable. Lived in N. VA a long time, spent a few recent years in MD, and am back in VA 10 now. Voted early on Saturday at one of the three (plus board of elections office) in the county with a line of a few hundred moving along nicely in late am. Am cautiously optimistic.
rikyrah
@Kirk:
EXCELLENT suggestion
Betty Cracker
@martha: I make orange scones fairly often but have never added cranberries. Will have to try that next time.
@Mel: That sounds good too! May I ask how you make the dumplings? I’ve never found a recipe that suits, so always on the lookout.
No Nym
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I vote yes on a Missouri Juicer gathering.
frosty
That’s going to be the entire day. TV is a waste of time. Balloon-Juice, however, will be full of off-the-wall off-topic comments and probably not a lot of speculating. Hopefully you’ll be here all day so we can get some fine invective from time to time!
Geminid
@hrprogressive: I like to call the Youngkin/McAuliffe contest, “The Race that Launched a Thousand Bad Takes.”
One bad take was that Youngkin had found “lightning in a bottle” with his dire warnings about CRT. Ron DeSantis and others seemed to think so, and Republicans put a lot of effort put into culture war issues after Youngkin’s win.
I don’t think Youngkin’s CRT gambit actually had much of an impact on the broader electorate, but it was a good motivator for the Republican base. Republicans here usually have to pound the abortion and gun rights issues in order to get the more feral Republicans on board, but that causes an equal and opposite reaction among Democrats and moderate Independents.
In this case, I thought that whole CRT thing left normies scratching their heads, but Republicans could hear the dog whistle loud and clear.
Betty Cracker
@Chris: Also, this continent was originally colonized by religious fanatics. I think Australia got the better end of the stick with convicts.
geg6
@bbleh:
No, they can begin counting mail in votes now in PA. No waiting for polls to close. Mail ins are counted first. Just looked it up to be sure.
Soprano2
@Gloria DryGarden: I think we have six plus the candidates, so it won’t be too bad.
geg6
@Gloria DryGarden:
Believe me, everything has been tried before digging. It’s either tree roots from a tree that was cut down well before we moved in this June or the line has collapsed.
Soprano2
@geg6: Sorry you’re having to wait for utility locates. In MO we have MO OneCall that does it for everyone. Once you call in a locate they have a fixed amount of time to do it. They leave a black flag with a number on it that if you call the OneCall number they can tell you who the locate is for. I hope you get it all fixed soon, sewer problems can be the worst!
Gloria DryGarden
@Soprano2: i alway took my cheat sheet in w me, when we had same day voting, with the machines, and the long lines. I took some time to read up on all th3 pros and cons, and tricky wording, and what out of state money was trying to influence..
good luck.
Soprano2
@lowtechcyclist: Someone I’m impressed with is David Hogg. I’ve heard him interviewed on a couple of shows. He was informed, calm and reasonable with everyone. I think he’s going places.
Dave
@S Cerevisiae: It’s better than reading entrails
And likely has more predictive power than 95% of our political media.
Chris
@lowtechcyclist:
I always liked AOC, but she genuinely impressed me this past summer by being seemingly the only Democrat behaving like a leader. She knew damn well that Biden might not survive and just what a shit-show was going on behind closed doors, but she let it play out behind closed doors and, in public, stuck to supporting her candidate until such time as the decision had been made and announced. At which point of course she transferred all that energy to supporting Harris.
At a time when the Democratic Party had more fucking leaks that the Iraqi Navy and even the public statements were full of hemming and hawing, it was nice to see. I’ve always wanted her to stick around for a long time, but that was the first time I’d seriously thought “man, she’s got what it takes to lead the party some day.” She could be President, she doesn’t have to be, ending up Speaker of the House or Senate Majority Leader and being the next Nancy Pelosi works just as well, but whatever it is, I want her at the head of the table some day.
Almost Retired
@Soprano2: I’m super impressed with him, too. And he really triggers (pun intended) the gun humpers.
UncleEbeneezer
@rikyrah: Good morning to you :)
Soprano2
@No Nym: I have a bar in Springfield, but that’s probably too far south for it.
bbleh
@geg6: uhh, they can PROCESS them but not TABULATE them iirc. That is, they can verify signatures, open envelopes, stack ’em ready for machines, even run ’em through the machines, but they can’t COUNT them — have the machines create results, or do spot-checks, audits, etc. — until after polls close. This is why reported results are delayed and subject to mirages.
Link.
martha
@Betty Cracker: The combo of orange zest, 2tbsp of orange juice, and the cranberries just made them zing! I think you’ll really like the addition.
@Mel: I’ve never made dumplings either! Something to add to my “to cook” list.
Dave
@TS: If you are going to allow vote challenging by private entities (and you should not) it seems fairly obvious that the burden of proof should lie entirely on the challenger.
Chris
@Betty Cracker:
I am hardly in a position to disagree.
::stares sideways at U.S. Supreme Court::
KenK
Lovely Bride©️ and I voted a couple hours ago. Less than 30 minute wait. Both of us, straight ‘D’ down the ticket. Could not be any easier.
Gloria DryGarden
@Betty Cracker: it’s been my gradual understanding that the freedom to practice religion, was about the freedom to practice more restrictive versions of Puritanism.
we’re still a bit puritanical. When I massaged the ballroom dancers for th3 show Burn the Floor, the dancers told me they had to changed a bunch of their choreography when they came to the US to tour. THEIR DANCES WERE TOO SEXY and they had to tone it down.
All along, I had thought the freedom of religion meant you were welcome to be Jewish, or Buddhist, or bahai or Sufi, or pagan or Hindu, or Sikh or Muslim, etc. Or animist, or shamanic.
UncleEbeneezer
@Geminid: The best analysis of the Youngkin surprise win, imo, was simply that voters were Meh about McAuliffe since he had been around awhile, wasn’t exciting enough etc. And the Republicans managed to take advantage of that along with some scare tactics about CRT and schools reopening too soon to eke out a win. It wasn’t some brilliant new GOP model or by Youngkin.
hrprogressive
@Geminid:
Yeah, Youngkin crushed it in rural parts of the state in a way that previous GOPers hadn’t done in modern memory.
I also think McAullife just *assumed* the metro triumvirate of NoVa, Richmond, and Hampton Roads was going to save his ass.
Wasn’t nearly enough.
FWIW –
A lot of people I saw openly supporting Trump in 2020 and Youngkin in 2021…don’t appear to be openly supporting anyone this time.
Does that mean they all became Dem voters? No. But the lack of visible out and proud support for the GOPers is fairly noticeable, IMO.
Gloria DryGarden
@Soprano2: one of my best friends moved to Springfield, she grew up there, or raised her kids there, I forget which.
Ksmiami
@BritinChicago: I think markets are reacting to good fundamentals rn and the end of election season.
BlueGuitarist
@NotMax:
Thanks for posting Todd Rundgren, Just One Victory!
hrprogressive
@UncleEbeneezer:
This is 1000% true.
I absolutely did not want McAullife again. I voted Jennifer Carrol Foy in the primary.
McAullife is a creature of a different political era, and we never need hear from him again, IMO.
bbleh
@hrprogressive: I noticed the same thing re support for the OPS in rural PA. The signs still outnumber Dem signs like 3-1 (and even that is less than it was!), but the displays aren’t huge and over-the-top the way they were. A lot of them are just — simple lawn signs, almost all of them identical (ie probably distributed by the same person/group), and there just aren’t as many.
Ksmiami
@BritinChicago: tariffs and Elon/project 25 taking an axe to the fed govt will throw the economy into a tailspin
UncleEbeneezer
@Ironcity: This. McAuliffe was a known entity with a track-record that could be spun as baggage, status-quo etc. Youngkin got the same empty-vessel benefit that Trump got in 2016, allowing voters to project all sorts of positions onto him to justify giving him their vote.
hrprogressive
@bbleh:
I’ve seen a few “standard” large signs in public spaces, but limited signage on private lawns and such.
I haven’t seen much Dem Signage on private lawns either but honestly I haven’t put a sign out since Obama and the violent right ward lurch of the GOP.
I’ve voted reliably Dem for 20 years.
I am sure I am not alone.
Geminid
@Parfigliano: That was a nice bit of redistricting by the Democrats in Santa Fe. My impression is that it pretty much accounted for Gabe Vasquez’s margin of victory in 2022.
I like Roswell. I camped some near there in early 2020, at Bottomless Lakes State Park. I remember the pecan farms outside the town, and the Bitter Lake National Wildlife Refuge with its many birds.
And I saw an alien in Roswell! He was 12 feet tall, green and holding up a Dunkin’ Donuts sign.
suzanne
I feel like I’m going to throw up.
Gloria DryGarden
I stayed up all night, again.
I feel like I’m at the bedside of a sick friend in the hospital, and I’m sitting with them, outside of time, and nothing else matters.
WaterGirl
@Gloria DryGarden:
A quick Google should get you that information.
“what county is levittown PA in”
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Sister Golden Bear: Reminds me of this funny video about coastal time zone differences. (CW language)
College Humor – YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fn3wkV_EwcI&pp=ygUXY29sbGVnZWh1bW9yIHRpbWUgem9uZXM%3D
Gloria DryGarden
@martha: i would try it with lemon.
BlueGuitarist
George Washington, Letter to the Hebrew Congregation in Newport, Rhode Island, 1790
https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/historic-document-library/detail/george-washington-letter-to-the-hebrew-congregation-in-newport-rhode-island-1790
Dave
@Chris: She really has noticeably grown over the years and she was pretty good to start with (any concerns I had with her were quickly assuaged by how she approached Pelosi in her first term); seems to understand how to leverage power and influence in our system in productive ways.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Gloria DryGarden:
Levittown is in Bucks.
Landsdowne is in Delaware County (mine and the home county of TBone)
Gwynned is in Montgomery County
So among the three of them, you’ve got all the close-in counties.
TS
@Chris:
I grew up with family/friends who fought with Americans in WWII and in Vietnam.
Things were relatively good between Australia/USA until GWB took us back to war after 9/11. We have also been less supportive of US providing arms to Israel in more recent times. Trump, however, was a real turning point. He has so little support & all our treaties came under threat during his 4 years in the white house. Our PM of the time, who joined the adoration, was despatched at his next election.
Our economy is very dependent on the health of the US economy, and what will happen to both economies if trump wins is something I avoid thinking about.
jonas
Ok, just came back from the polling place. Busy, but no real line to speak of. Everyone seemed in good spirits. Harris will have no problem carrying NY state, but I will eagerly await the outcome of the local congressional race (NY-22) to see if we can finally get rid of that odious, carpetbagging Trumper Brandon Williams. It’s a likely Dem pickup, but a lot will depend on turnout in the Trumpier, rural areas of the district where Mannion didn’t do much campaigning, unfortunately. Elise Stefanik will coast to reelection in the very rural, very red 21st district she represents up north of us, so she’ll still be around to stink up the NY delegation for at least 2 more years. Ugh.
Gloria DryGarden
@WaterGirl: oh, cool, that might work. I was imagining a morass of maps, towns on one map, counties in another.
you promote google to me often enough you ought to get a commission.
Radio Dave
@Omnes Omnibus: Thank You for this! So great to hear the voice of my formative years, the perfect salve for my unsettled soul. Vote Blue, Win Blue
Geminid
@Ironcity: What do you think of 10th CD Congressional candidate Suhas Subramanyam? He seems like an dynamic politician to me. I’m still sad about Jennifer Wexton’s retirement, but state Senator Subramanyam looks like a worthy successor, and he’s only 37 years old.
Gloria DryGarden
@BlueGuitarist: That is so apt for everything that has been going on.
what a useful, deep important quote.
thanks also to mr (president) Washington.
t’would be good if we could live up to this…. We, as in, the whole nation. For cryin out loud
zhena gogolia
@Chris: Yes, I had the same feeling about her. I was not a fan until this past summer. Now I’m a fan.
Gloria DryGarden
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: cool. Thank you..
Chris
@TS:
My roommate my first two years of college was an Australian of Chinese and Vietnamese descent. Hardcore evangelical, hardcore conservative, adored the United States in general and the U.S. military in particular for getting his mother out of Vietnam at the end of the war, tried (unsuccessfully) to get a green card and then citizenship while he was studying here, worshiped the ground George W. Bush walked on. Politics was actually a major reason we kind of grew apart, didn’t talk much after he moved back to Australia, and when we do, almost never about politics.
So when in 2016 he told me he was concerned about the direction Trump was taking the U.S. and how it was selfish and seriously risked damaging the world and even rebounding on the U.S, it was one hell of a turnaround from what I was used to. I don’t know how he votes in Australia and expect it’s still on the right side of things, but at least as far as U.S. politics goes, Trump was enough of a shock to overcome his usual tendencies.
Betty Cracker
@Gloria DryGarden: Sometimes I make Meyer lemon and blueberry scones. They’re pretty good if I do say so myself!
@Chris: Agree about AOC.
Gloria DryGarden
@Omnes Omnibus: one feels hope, and tears.
fond memories of wind chill charts, as well.
Geminid
@UncleEbeneezer: That election was what a social scientist might describe a “multiply determined. There was a 12 point swing from Biden’s victory to Youngkin’s, and several factors had to operate. McAuliffe was not in fact that strong a candidate, and he did not run a very effective campaign. But McAuliffe would still have pulled out a win if Youngkin hadn’t been a strong candidate with an efficient, well-organized campaign.
BlueGuitarist
@jonas:
Will Mike Johnson blurting out that Republicans will cancel billions in local investments thru the chips act hurt Brandon Williams?
(I’ve learned that the anger management problems seem positive to lots of voters)
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Betty Cracker: Religious fanatics, greedy opportunists, slaves, AND convicts. I think that’s why America has such a split personality.
Geminid
@hrprogressive: I saw reporting of voter roll analysis that suggested a number of Republican voters who hadn’t come out for Trump in 2020 came out for Youngkin a year later. I had seen how Trump was powerful GOTV asset for Democrats here, but he may also have suppressed the Republican some.
H.E.Wolf
I’ll write postcards for that election!
In blue ink. :)
H.E.Wolf
Thank you for being part of the cure, in more ways than one!
H.E.Wolf
@BlueGuitarist:
Thank you for posting that quintessential George Washington excerpt. I always find it profoundly moving.
May we endeavor to live up to George’s aspirations for us.
PST
@TS:
I find plenty to criticize with Silver, but I don’t always agree with everyone else’s criticisms. For one thing, Silver’s model has not had Trump winning the whole time. Just eyeballing the chart, it looks to me that the lead over time was about evenly split. Harris started behind but quickly pulled ahead for almost the whole month of August, then Trump took his biggest lead, but that swung again with Harris ahead for about a month from mid-September to mid-October, ending with Trump ahead until this morning. That isn’t far from my own sense of how the vibe has been trending: initial excitement, some letdown, a widening lead, but then some apparent Trump momentum that had us all worried, ending with great confidence in the last few days. Silver has been pretty transparent about how the model works, and even if you think the assumptions behind it are invalid, or that his way of ranking the quality of polls is deficient, at least he always seems to actually follow the methodology he has adopted. And as for the last iteration being CYA, he right out fronts says that which way it went in the end was purely random. He runs 80,000 iterations of the model, and like a coin flipped 80,000 times one side came up slightly more often than the other, but it was meaningless. The only sense in which you could call this a CYA move is that no one can say you were wrong when you say the odds are 50-50.
Another Scott
@hrprogressive: I thought Terry did Ok in his campaign. Too many Democrats stayed home – remember that Mark Herring – probably the greatest state AG ever – lost too. :-( And that crazy woman became Lt. Gov. :-(
APNews.com:
I’m no expert, but I don’t see how any of the others – especially the absolute disaster that was Justin Fairfax – could have beaten Youngkin.
It was an own-goal by Virginia Democrats not to turn out and support the ticket. I don’t think we’ll make that mistake again.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
You can do that from MA? How does that work? And is it a multi-day thing? Or today-only?
Also: thanks very much for doing this, and for letting us know about it.
Good luck!
Bupalos
@geg6: they probably won’t be able to physically get them all tallied though, It’s going to be complicated. Everything is, with states doing things at different speeds and in different orders.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
I became a naturalized citizen so that I could vote. This is my home and I wanted a say in how it was run.
I remember when you became a citizen :)
Gloria DryGarden
@Betty Cracker: I love lemon blueberry! I want some.
Soprano2
@suzanne: I’m sorry, I wish I could give you some of the confidence I feel. We all have our own 2016 demons that we may never completely exorcise.
Ksmiami
@suzanne: take heart that if these ass-hats get their way, they will be hurt as well… and badly.
frosty
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: According to Albion’s Seed, the US is even more split than that: Cavaliers (aristocrats, think Southern plantation owners) Roundheads (Puritans), Scots-Irish (Appalachian farmers) and Quakers.
We’re still fighting the Civil War. No, not that one, the English Civil War from the 1600s.
arrieve
@arrieve: And my student just texted me that she was able to vote! I can’t drink any more but I think this calls for cake.
Gloria DryGarden
In Denver, my friend who is working in ballot counting is working today from noon until 1 am. One helluva long shift. But it tells me, the count isn’t expected to be complete until late.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Nice.
@VeroniqueB99 on Mastodon has a couple of good ones, also too.
Forward!! Run up the score!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Gloria DryGarden
@arrieve: that’s an ecstatic feeling , isn’t it?
No Nym
@Soprano2: Depends on where everyone else is, I suppose. I am in central MO, but I would drive to Springfield if it’s on a day I can do so! (Still a working stiff. Just heard a coworker bitching about not being excited to vote, and I thought, ‘Don’t worry, if MO has its way, you won’t have voting rights next time.’ Couldn’t say it out loud, unfortunately, because we are not supposed to discuss politics on the work machine.)
Betty Cracker
@arrieve: Well done! (You, not the cake!)
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@No Nym: @Soprano2: @comrade scotts agenda of rage:
I’m in St. Louis, but I’m willing to go to someplace more central, like Columbia if that is easier for everyone.
jonas
@BlueGuitarist: Yeah, it did get some coverage in the local media and Mannion has been running hard on his support for the CHIPS Act and the big Micron project, so we’ll see. Williams actually had the cojones to campaign in front of a big cellular equipment manufacturer in Syracuse that was expanding due to the IRA and other government programs and take credit for shit he completely voted against. That kind of blew up in his face, but probably won’t cost him any MAGA votes. Lying and bullshit are just credibility markers for them because it’s a sign you really don’t give a crap about anything.
It’s nuts around here that these crabby old Republicans will all bitch and moan about how all the well-paying manufacturing jobs have left and then when something like the Micron project or other big job-creating business comes to town, they’re like “Waah, this will just increase traffic and congestion now and drive up costs!” and of course if it was the result of a Democratic initiative, it double doesn’t count.
Idiots.
schrodingers_cat
@SFAW: Its online on Zoom. The idea is to coordinate the on the ground effort by being their digital back office. Right now they have enough volunteers. But I am on call if they need me.
Ruckus
@Chris:
It helps to go back a few decades and look at the rethuglican party and their wants and desires for them and the county.
For a number of years/decades now the rethuglican party has been about money and history. Having more of the first and not screwing up the second. But a couple of issues have stood in their way. First is communications, like what we are doing right here and now. Second is that time marches on – tick tock, tick tock. I’m an old – as if I’ve never mentioned that before…. I’ve watched from the advent of TV – communications and then the web – what we are doing right here and then on to not just the new ways but what that did for us – the citizens of this country and the world. It has changed most every aspect of human life. And mostly for the better. But. It has also changed world wide politics – slowly of course but change it has. Warfare for example. We are now in a time where the amount of warfare is for the most part less than at most any time in my life, and it was worse before I was born. We are, slowly, learning to live with each other. There are many sides to this but communications, like what we are doing right now is a big part of this. Most of us have never met in real life, but we can communicate on an individual basis in real time. That is a massive change and in the lifetime of many, many people of the world. We can fly to most anywhere in the world and at a relatively small cost and short time. Commerce is extremely different than it was 50 -75 yrs ago. The world has changed more in the lifetimes of the olds alive today than in any time prior. Far more. Manufacturing has advanced more in the last half a century than in all time prior. Travel as well. Let the olds tell you how cars were 75-100 yrs ago. Communications – look at what we are doing here, now. If you are an old, as in above retirement age the world has changed more in your lifetime than in all human time prior.
BarcaChicago
@Ksmiami: Oh dear. I’ve lived in Italy (and mostly many years in Spain). If you’re trying to get away from racism, sexism, anti-LGBTQ, and other assorted ugliness at the personal/collective/systemic level, and would like to avoid fascism: you’re going to the wrong place.
Ruckus
@BarcaChicago:
Is there any where within humanity that one can get away from racism, sexism, etc, etc?
Sure some humans are not all that selfish but these are not actually very limited human traits. They are human issues that circle around the survival instinct. Many most of them are not necessary or helpful to humanity and haven’t been for a long time, but they are consistent with humans (and most other animals) over all of recorded time.
StringOnAStick
@BarcaChicago: Thanks for pointing that out; it’s my impression from having lived there for a couple of months as much like a local as I could, though many years ago. I didn’t think it would have changed much since many of the intervening years we’re even worse on this topic.
BarcaChicago
@Ruckus: And…that’s my point. I found that out by living for a decade in another country. The “I’m leaving to escape from (insert ugly human behavior)” is an illusion.