This is a long, somber one from Popehat, Ken White. I won’t excerpt it.
Digby has a whole post from James Fallows today. Again worth a read.
Scott Lemieux’ take on Harris is roughly what I think (post also has some good embedded threads):
I know data and logic can never stop a pundit’s fallacy, and “the operation was a success but the patient died” is of no consolation at this point, but the idea that the problem last night was the result of marginal messaging choices is completely delusional […]
This is a nationwide shift to the right and against the presidential in-party, and the shift was notably less pronounced in the contested battleground states, which is the opposite of what you would expect if Harris ran a poor campaign. There is no such thing as a flawless campaign but Harris had much higher net approval ratings than Biden, correctly identified the most competitive states, improved Democratic margins there, and was notably more competitive than other incumbent parties have done since COVID inflation (or than Trudeau is looking).
In the comments on my last post, people were re-litigating the Biden step aside. Here’s my take: if you’re going to talk counterfactuals, I also want to hear how you think things would have gone if Biden had chosen to be a one-term president and there had been a robust Democratic primary, where we had a lot of TV time and attention in the vacuum left by Trump’s coronation by the Republicans. I don’t know the answer to that, but I’m firmly in the camp that Biden would have gotten creamed worse than Harris.
Please Adjust Your Own Mask
different-church-lady
Why not go back further than that: “What if Biden hadn’t been the nominee in 2020 and someone else had beaten Trump?”
hells littlest angel
So who the fuck should we have run against him — Chauncey Gardiner?
I don’t think we are a nation of complete fucking morons. Also, I think maybe I’m wrong.
Barbara
I don’t know how it would have worked out but I do know that Biden would not have incurred the misogyny penalty. Sorry.
Rose Judson
Thanks for sharing the Defector post in your previous thread. Sent it to my Dad and he really appreciated it. That PopeHat post is quality, too.
different-church-lady
As to the question of who would have won a robust Democratic primary: as the seated vice-president Harris would be the most logical assumption.
Or was that a rhetorical question?
different-church-lady
@hells littlest angel: No, we’re just half a nation of complete fucking morons.
Phylllis
@Barbara: Yep. I told my husband earlier today in regards to Harris receiving so many fewer votes than Biden that we can’t assume Democrats are all good people. Obviously a buttload of them thought ‘well I can’t vote for him, but the Black lady’s also a bridge too far. ‘
japa21
Tend to disagree with your last statement , but not going so far as to state Biden would have won.
Also, now is not the time for relitigation. Now is the time to realize that we are in the minority like the GOP was for several years. They worked to restore their power from the bottom up. We have to do the same.
Baud
@Phylllis:
Agree. Maintaining our coalition requires making some ugly compromises, it seems.
Shalimar
I think there is a world where Biden would have won. If administration and campaign officials had been hammering away at how much he got done in 2021 and how much it helped every different voter group. If his campaign had been more energetic. If he had been more effective in that debate. If Democrats had ignored the Russian/Fox campaign to depict him as a senile old man who had to be replaced. But we didn’t live in that world, and the transition to Harris was as smooth as it could possibly be. Her campaign was as smooth as it could possibly be.
I don’t think Biden announcing he was a one-term president last November would have been better. I think whoever emerged from the primaries (probably Harris) would have done worse than Harris did in our reality just because Republicans had more time to develop negative narratives against the candidate.
Trollhattan
Here’s a piece I found worthwhile. Excerpts.
PST
@different-church-lady:
Probably. But I think the theory behind the comment is that a spirited primary contest isn’t necessarily fratricidal strife that leaves the party divided and reeling. It exposes talent and generates interest.
different-church-lady
@Phylllis:
Not everyone who pulled the lever for Biden was a Democrat.
Quinerly
Thanks for these links.
54% of Hispanic men voted for Trump. 44% of of Hispanic women voted for Trump.
MSNBC reporting
*******
Is anyone finding anything about how as a country we had almost 20 million less voters this year?
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Trollhattan:
That’s essentially another way of portraying mistermix’s “run the car into a ditch” analogy from earlier today.
Gotta admit, I’m coming around to that as *an* issue pertaining to the loss.
Quinerly
@Trollhattan:
Thanks for posting.
Quinerly
@Shalimar:
Good points.
Belafon
@Trollhattan: ” Inflation is much lower now but the effects and memories of it linger.”
Which means Republicans will gain an advantage from it in 2026.
Kyle Rayner
Not to be a soppy weenie, but all this talk of impending civil violence is scaring me more than just the election results and their policy consequences. Even if I don’t disagree that the threat has been palpable since 2016.
Actually, to be a soppy weenie, I’m scared that I’m considering buying a gun for self-defense. I’m scared of guns. I just want to be gay and NOT hurt people; that’s the whole point.
Shalimar
@different-church-lady: If we got August Harris for the primaries, I have no doubt she would have wiped the floor with all the other contenders. She was so much better at campaigning than she was in 2019. She was ready.
Splitting Image
@different-church-lady:
Somebody commented earlier that we all just witnessed a real life Kobayashi Maru problem. The arguments back in the summer assumed that there was a right answer to the question of Biden staying or going. I think what we all just saw is that there wasn’t one.
If the mood was really “throw out the incumbent”, Biden would have lost worse than Harris (and so would any other Democratic President). If they had had a mini-primary, Harris would likely have won and faced the same result. Misogyny is such a part of this that a different woman would have had the same result. A male candidate would have angered many women for usurping Harris’ place. Result: divided party and probably the same result.
If Biden had announced he was not running two years ago and they had a normal primary, there would probably have been two frontrunners, A and B. Candidate A (maybe Harris again) would have run on Biden’s record and run into the same anti-incumbent headwinds, and Candidate B would have distanced himself from Biden, as Al Gore did in 2000, and probably reached the same result Gore did.
Solvable? Kirk solved the Kobayashi Maru by rigging the computers. Technically that solution was available here, but serious Democrats are understandably reluctant to do that.
tam1MI
It’s kind of telling that the common denominator amongst the demos where she took her biggest hits was men.
Quinerly
@Barbara: how would Biden overcome this?
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/joe-biden-approval-rating-by-state
I am not trying to be adversarial…just trying to understand how people think Biden could have gotten around his abysmal approval ratings and over 50% of the country believing we are on the wrong track with Biden.
Chris
@hells littlest angel:
I’m pretty sure you are, unfortunately.
I mean, it’s not just this. It’s this and every election that’s happened since, at the very latest, 2005, when it became impossible to deny what a smoking crater the Republican Party was turning us into, versus the ensuring twenty years of “but the Democrats aren’t perfect!” shrieking that’s ensued every time they so much as straighten their tie.
We’ve had so many warnings and so many opportunities to take a decisive off-ramp. The parable of “God sent you a truck, a boat, a helicopter” doesn’t even begin to cover this. The very kindest thing you can say about us is that we’re a nation of complete fucking morons.
suzanne
@Baud:
I’m less willing to make compromises now. The social contract has been broken in a significant way. My kids have been underbussed because a bunch of idiots want to save a dollar on eggs and they miss being able to catcall. Nope. Not interested in helping those people out.
japa21
@Quinerly:
I have a couple theories.
1. Far more vote by mail in 2020. Easier to vote by mail than deal with long lines or bad weather.
2. Since the biggest drop in numbers was on the Dem side, I wonder how much the size and excitement of the rallies caused some to think it was in the bag.
3. The potential of violence at voting places discouraged some.
As to the Hispanic figures, I want to know what % of Hispanics voted in this election compared to 2020.
Splitting Image
Also the fact that the first wave of pundit reactions talked about Harris “moving too far to the left”, with the “abortion stuff” and the “trans stuff”. Women are bleeding out in the parking lots of hospitals and the punditry’s first suggestion is that women suck it up.
Chris
@Shalimar:
How do you hammer away and how do you demonstrate energy in a world where every single media outlet that mediates between you and the voters is a right-wing puke funnel that’s decided to drown out everything you say?
UncleEbeneezer
@Trollhattan: I don’t ever wanna hear “if only the Dems had nominated/done X” ever again.
Baud
@UncleEbeneezer:
For too many people, that’s what makes life worth living.
Chris
@Splitting Image:
What really makes me roll my eyes at the “oh NOES we moved too far to the LEFT!!!” and “we need to dial back on helping women, trans people, immigrants, and you know what, Americans” crap is that I know perfectly well what the Republican reaction to this would be even without Trump: shrug, come back in four years or eight years when the anti-incumbency mood has started working against your opponent, rerun the exact same campaign with maybe a different campaigner, and chances are you’ll win.
But we’re Democrats, so I doubt that’ll be the conclusion.
PJ
It’s easy to say.
As I said in a comment to another post below, I think Harris ran a fine campaign. But clearly something dampened turnout. As of this afternoon, Biden got 14 million more votes than Harris. Why was that? Could it be that it’s easier for a lot of people to vote for an old white man than a black woman? Could it be that Independents and Never Trumpers find it easier to vote for someone they think of as “middle of the road Joe” than a “San Francisco liberal”? Could it be that he’s a known quantity that appeals to a lot of voters who aren’t Mistermix?
It’s awful that we have to worry about whether people did not vote for a Democrat because she is black, or a woman, or from California, but this is clearly where this country is. We’ll never know the counterfactual, but I thought and think Biden was our best candidate against Trump, since, you know, he already beat him once. And I think forcing him out was the worst thing Democrats could have done, since, to outsiders, it showed no confidence in his administration and his policies.
different-church-lady
@Baud: During “The Troubles” I drew up a little matrix of replace/keep v. win/lose. I described the four possible outcomes and every one of them ended with “…and a whole lot of people get to say ‘I told you so.'”
Quinerly
@japa21: thanks.
My brain is getting pretty fried. Awake since 4 yesterday AM. These are the kinds of thoughts/discussions I am craving.
different-church-lady
@Chris: Trump spits out naked hatred of brown people, so I have a hard time believing “a little less left” would be the cure for this.
PJ
@Quinerly:
Harris’ unfavorables were at 50% in October, while Trump’s were at 48%. https://news.gallup.com/poll/652427/trump-harris-favorability-low-end-year-trend.aspx
How could either of them overcome this?
cain
My friend sent me this. Worth front posting I think:
You are awakening to the
same country you fell asleep to.
The very same country.
Pull yourself together. And,
when you see me,
do not ask me
“What do we do now?
How do we get through the next four years?”
Some of my Ancestors dealt with at least 400 years of this under worse conditions.
Continue to do the good work.
Continue to build bridges not walls.
Continue to lead with compassion.
Continue the demanding work
of liberation for all.
Continue to dismantle broken systems,
large and small.
Continue to set the best example
for the children.
Continue to be a vessel of nourishing joy.
Continue right where you are. Right where you live into your days.
Do so in the name of
The Creator who expects
nothing less from each of us.
And if you are not “continuing”
ALL of the above,
in community, partnership, collaboration?
What is it you have been doing?
What is it you are waiting for? -Venice Williams
tam1MI
I’ll be honest – I am not at all sure we would have won with Biden. I am convinced, however, that we would have lost by less and maybe even been able to salvage something out of it. Biden was stronger in the “Blue Wall” states Dems needed to win – it’s telling that Union support for Dems cratered after he stepped aside. Plus, by ousting Biden the way they did, Dems reinforced the absolute worst myths/facts about themselves – that they are feckless, that they don’t care about the little guy, that they are only in it for themselves, that they won’t stand up for anything or anybody. If the ploy had worked, no one would be complaining. The problem is, it didn’t work. It failed. Catastrophically. They own that.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kyle Rayner: As a former soldier, I will say think very long and hard about whether you are capable of taking a human life before you buy a gun. Don’t get one if you haven’t answered that question. In addition, don’t get one if you aren’t ready and willing to spend the time to learn to use it. A gun can create more problems than it solves.
different-church-lady
@PJ: According to that chart Trump had 36% favorable in 2016.
Don’t anybody ever babble about favorability ratings ever again.
Trollhattan
@UncleEbeneezer: Yup, agree.
For all the “deep bench” talk Dems simply don’t have a Johnny Unbeatable in a box labeled “In case of electoral emergency, break glass.”
Turns out weird nation just elected two very weird dudes to be in the WH, and brought weird senators along with them.
Whee!
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
To me one of the most striking memories of this election cycle is hearing just before election day that a heavily trending election related google search query was “Did Joe Biden drop out?”.
This is just uninformed jawboning, but I think collectively the American electorate does not pay much attention to elections, unless strongly motivated by an extremely urgent and undeniable sense of existential threat which is so simple & unambiguous in character that even normies who aren’t paying any sort of attention to politics notice it.
We had that in 2008 – the economy was collapsing.
We had that in 2020 – COVID was killing people by the thousands and massively disrupted normal life.
We did not have that in 2016 or 2024. Not on our side
The people who looked at Trump and saw existential threat were folks concerned with policy, with institutions, with the Rule of Law, etc. But that is not a normie set of concerns, people who think about these things are already tuned into politics. People who think about Fantasy Football more often than politics don’t think about the Rule of Law.
The Right has a built in advantage insofar as they always see themselves as facing an existential crisis, in the form of losing the culture wars. To them, every election is a crisis, completely independent of what may be going on with the economy, etc.
The Dem & Dem leaning Independent normie voters just did not show that sense of urgency. Hence many of them sat it out this time.
For normies, the Democratic Party has become the Fire Extinguisher of American Politics – something you just ignore unless you have a fire that desperately needs to be put out right the hell now.
bbleh
@Kyle Rayner: @Omnes Omnibus: concur w O2. Get trained, find a place where you can learn how to handle and fire and care for a weapon and try out various kinds and practice with them, and ONLY THEN think seriously about purchasing one. And if you do, get it from a proper dealer — no gun shows — and store it properly, and fire it regularly (at a range) so you “stay in practice.”
A handgun is a tool to kill someone. If you don’t intend to do that at need, or you don’t know how, don’t get one.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@UncleEbeneezer:
I’ll throat-punch anybody who says that unironically.
Another interesting factoid somebody posted on twitter, Carter “lost” about 13% of his 76 vote total in 80. Harris is currently around 17% (from Biden’s total).
tam1MI
We would have ended up with a White Male candidate, that’s pretty obvious in retrospect. I think our chances would have improved a bit.
different-church-lady
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Oh, yeah, Carter… he had a political problem… it began with an i, and it had something to do with the economy…
Omnes Omnibus
@tam1MI: Let’s not do this now. I was as pro retaining Biden as anyone on this blog, but I really do not see the point of counterfactuals. No one one this blog who took either side in that fight wanted anything but a Democratic win. Everyone is hurting right now and this fight doesn’t fucking help. Not today, not this week.
Yarrow
@tam1MI:
I’m not sure all of this is true but some of it may be. What the whole thing taught me is that Democrats will toss out the candidate their voters voted for if they don’t like that person. It’s a bad way to model what democracy is. If you then turn around and say democracy is on the line it rings pretty hollow.
I’m sure people will be along to tell me I’m totally wrong about all of this. I don’t care. I’ve felt this way since the “dump Biden” campaign started. I feel like my vote doesn’t matter.
japa21
Hindsight is 20-20, but, looking back, we should have know there was trouble ahead when she absolutely trounced him the debate, with even the media describing it that way, and the polls didn’t budge.
different-church-lady
@Yarrow:
brendancalling
I have nothing of value and nothing brave to say. My kid is transgender, and will not step foot in the United States again after January 20. I am working on my teach English abroad license. It’s not like I’ll have a job for very long in the United States after they abolish the department of education, right?
My girlfriend and I are trying to figure our plans out. But those plans involve travel.
bbleh
@Omnes Omnibus: concur. It’s tempting to resurrect old arguments, but they’re utterly moot, and they’re destructive to self and others. Look to the future. And if that’s cloudy (yeah), then just be nice and do some self-repair, or even tune out for a while.
Splitting Image
@Yarrow:
The real “dump Biden” campaign began when the “news” media framed the Afghanistan withdrawal as a colossal fuckup and the splendid recovery with plunging unemployment as a terrible economy with a looming recession.
PJ
@different-church-lady: This.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Interesting polling from Europe:
https://europeelects.eu/2024/11/04/u-s-election-europeans-would-vote-for-harris-if-they-could/
Of course it doesn’t explain countries that have voted in right candidates over the last couple of years roundly support our Dem candidate? Funny cognitive dissonance on display in this link.
Kyle Rayner
@Omnes Omnibus: That’s good advice. I had a straight up panic attack and waited outside people-sketching for a few hours when a friend brought me to a gun range for his bachelor party. I don’t see anything wrong with violence for self-defense, but guns are a hard sell so I strangled a similar urge in 2016
Which only leaves me wondering what the options even are when people start prognosing violence, specifically involving the gun people. “Be prepared!” How? What does that even mean? People just say it, knowingly, like others will know what to do with that information. Almost seems irresponsible to just throw that out there, especially considering what you’re saying about the responsibility involved.
schrodingers_cat
@Yarrow: You and me both. And being told to shut up about it while a Bernie bro FPer rewrites history in his FP post is infuriating.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kyle Rayner: If you are someplace where that is a concern, look for cover, look for escape routes, look for people more vulnerable than you who might need help. Take a first aid course. Things like that.
Quinerly
@PJ: good question. Let’s look at how low Trump’s #s were in 2020 as an incumbent. And he lost. Better comparison.
As for Biden….do you think he could have maintained a rigorous campaign schedule, gone thru a couple of debates, leaned into the women’s health issues/abortion issue and pulled in and registered young college age women? Would you have been holding your breath every day waiting for a literal misstep, stumble or stutter for the press to cover days and days back to back? Were you on pins and needles everyday fretting that Harris would stumble?
Maybe it’s all about trade offs…lose young, hopeful women in the hopes of keeping young misogynist Hispanic men???
Would we have had greater voter turnout with two 80 year old plus men center ring duking it out?
thoughts?
frosty
@japa21: From the little GOTV I did and the few doors where people answered, I am sure that the excitement of the rallies didn’t cause any Demoocrats to get complacent. Grim, sometimes joyful, determination instead.
Chris
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Everybody loves the other country’s liberal.
It’s why Carter is beloved except in America and Gorbachev except in Moscow.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Initial info on voting by race/gender:
White Men (34% of electorate)
37% D, 60% R
White Women (37% of electorate)
45% D, 53% R
Black Men (5% of electorate)
77% D, 21% R
Black Women (7% of electorate)
91% D, 7% R
Latino Men (6% of electorate)
43% D, 55% R
Latino Women (6% of electorate)
60% D, 38% R
All other races (6% of electorate)
48% D, 46% R
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1854295895824802142/photo/2
SomeRandomGuy
If I may say so, I’m firmly in the camp that your last sentence could have a period, instead of the first comma, and a reiteration of your side of the debate simply left out.
It’s a dick move to state your side, when one should disinvite response, in my humble opinion. Also: you don’t know how hurtful some of the “dump Biden” arguments were, to many in here. Including me, which is why I point out it’s a dick move – it was hurtful. You don’t have to care about me, but I didn’t say it was a dick move hypothetically, or gratuitously.
Shalimar
@Chris: I don’t have an answer for that. The Biden campaign never figured out an answer for that. But in the ideal world where Biden won, they did figure out how you energetically get your message to people without the media drowning it out with bullshit.
Another Scott
Thanks for the Popehat link. It’s good, and important.
Hang in there, everyone.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Another Scott
I’m kinda wondering how Judge Juan Marchan is going to handle TCFFG’s sentencing now.
State court.
Already convicted.
His fixer got 3 years for the stuff.
I guess we’ll see soon enough (November 26).
Hang in there, everyone.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Another Scott: He should have sentenced him months ago. He failed us all.
Melancholy Jaques
@different-church-lady:
Why not go back further than that “What if Biden had been the nominee in 2016 and he had handily beaten Trump?”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Melancholy Jaques:
Looking back, I wish he had been
sab
@Omnes Omnibus: Late to the thread, but thank you for that.
The Audacity of Krope
This goes beyond who had a better chance of winning. Anyone who still doesn’t understand that is every bit as depraved as your run-of-the-mill MAGA.