Three housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. She’ll see her regular vet Friday, which will be the first time her regular vet has seen her since she started chemo. This is just routine. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, about a month or so ago Cole and I had a discussion about tweets. Specifically, because Apartheid Clyde keeps mucking around with the code and the API, embedding tweets is really mucking up the site. There’s just no way for any developer to stay on top of the mess. Of course the majority of Ukrainians and those reporting on Ukraine are continuing to do so on the hellsite, which is why I was continuing to embed them. I’ve already checked and Nitter posts don’t embed. But I think all of us would like to give the Starlink Snowflake less exposure, so over the next few days I’ll be trying just using the Nitter link and copying and pasting the content combined with using BlueSky embeds where I can. This will mean less screen shots and videos, so may not be optimal and I may have to go back to doing things the other way. Thank you all in advance for your forbearance.

Third, I’m taking several days of leave to recharge. That’s from my actual paying work.  Tomorrow I will do a post on where we are in the wake of yesterday’s and today’s news. However, I want to make an important point right now: what you all did here, including Watergirl’s organizing, was incredible. The civic action you all undertook, providing donations for, or both was amazing and you should all be very, very proud of your efforts. The reason we are where we are though is because while civic action is necessary, it is not sufficient by itself given the reality of the past nine years. The President-elect’s movement is a revolutionary one that revolves around a revanchist, reactionary racist, antisemitic, Islamophobic, misogynist, homophobic, xenophobic, and (white) Christian nationalist ideology fused with a cult of personality around the President-elect. And this movement is aided and abetted by extreme gerrymanders, extreme voter suppression, extreme voter disenfranchisement, low intensity revolutionary violence/the threat of violence, and the subversion of the federal judiciary and the 25 states where the GOP has trifectas. As necessary as civic action is, it is not sufficient to counter that. It has to be combined with counter-guerilla warfare to counter the violence/threats of violence and counter-political action to counter the subversion of the federal courts, the extreme gerrymanders, voter suppression, and voter disenfranchisement. Unless an individual or small group is going to undertake a partisan counter-guerilla warfare campaign, which would of necessity have to be violent, these things can only really be done by government officials. And they weren’t. They weren’t even undertaken. I’ll have more on this tomorrow, but I wanted to make sure that everyone recognizes that you all did everything you could possibly do in the one line of effort that can be done by the citizenry. You all did great and important work, take both pride and as much comfort in that as you can!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

True Peace Is Only Achieved by Those Who Are Truly Brave – Address by the President

6 November 2024 – 20:20

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is indeed a special day, and one piece of news is grabbing everyone’s attention around the world. The absolutely convincing election results in America. A clear leadership of President Trump. I congratulate him on this victory. In general, it was extremely important for us in Ukraine and for all of Europe to consistently hear the words of the then-45th President of the United States about “peace through strength.” And if this becomes the policy principle of the 47th President of the United States, America and the whole world will undoubtedly benefit from it. It is not without reason that Ronald Reagan is mentioned so often these days – people want confidence, they want freedom, a normal life. And for us, this means a life free from Russian aggression, and with a strong America, with a strong Ukraine, with strong allies. This year, we have already spoken with President Trump both by phone in July and in a face-to-face meeting in September; and those were good conversations. We have ongoing interaction at the team level. As always, we certainly value the bipartisan support of the United States. We talked about all the points of the Victory Plan. At the meeting in New York, as well as at meetings in Washington – in Congress and at the White House. On defense, on the economy, and on the future after the war – we have the potential for stronger cooperation. This is what will make Ukraine, America, and the entire free world more successful.

Tomorrow, I will be in Budapest for the European Political Community Summit, at the invitation of Viktor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary, which holds the Presidency of the European Council, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council. This is the fifth Summit in this format. The first was in Czechia, the second – in Moldova, then in Spain and the United Kingdom. Now Hungary. I am grateful for the invitation. And we will discuss security challenges in Europe, as well as new opportunities for all partners. A series of meetings and agreements with European leaders will take place.

Today, there have been a lot of meetings focused specifically on the results we have now and those we can achieve. With the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, we had a meeting about our ongoing work and key resilience issues. I also spoke with Ruslan Stefanchuk, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, about the actions of both the legislative and executive branches of Government. I also held a meeting with Oleksandr Kamyshin to discuss the performance of our defense industry, our supplies to the front, and the promising things that can be done to strengthen Ukraine’s positions. Of course, there was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. The front and the implementation of decisions that can support our warriors on the contact line. And today, I want to express my special gratitude to all Ukrainian warriors, to all our units carrying out combat missions in the Kursk region. Today marks the third month of the Kursk Operation. And this is our contribution to ensuring that everyone in the world sees: Ukraine can change the course of this war to make those responsible for the war feel real pressure. True peace is only achieved by those who are truly brave.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I am proud of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s statement after his call with the President-elect:

I had an excellent call with President @realDonaldTrump and congratulated him on his historic landslide victory—his tremendous campaign made this result possible. I praised his family and team for their great work. We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation. Strong and unwavering U.S. leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace.

Ukrainian officials sought to put on a brave face and position themselves as supporters of Donald Trump who they portrayed as the leader who could forge peace with Russia. But hiding behind the veil of support was a lot of anxiety. www.ft.com/content/6275…

[image or embed]

— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) November 6, 2024 at 9:19 AM

From The Financial Times:

Ukrainian officials on Wednesday sought to put on a brave face and position themselves as supporters of Donald Trump who they portrayed as the leader who could forge peace with Russia.

But hiding behind the veil of support was “a lot of anxiety” about the US’s continued support for Kyiv once the new president took office, said a former minister.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Trump on his “impressive election victory” even before the electoral count was tallied. The Ukrainian leader expressed hope that the Republican would play an important role in ending the war.

“We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership,” Zelenskyy said. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer.”

He recalled a September meeting with Trump in New York, where they discussed efforts to end Russia’s military aggression, including the Ukrainian leader’s “victory plan,” which calls for an increase in military support from Washington that will be a tough sell for the Trump administration.

Trump, who was impeached in 2019 for pressuring Zelenskyy to open criminal probes into Joe Biden and his son Hunter over their business dealings in Ukraine, has blamed the Ukrainian president for starting the war. Trump has also claimed that he would end the conflict “within 24 hours” after taking office.

“I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know [Russian President Vladimir} Putin very well, even better,” Trump told Fox News in July. “I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal,” he said, adding that he would turn to Putin and threaten to give Kyiv “a lot” more aid in order to broker an agreement.

Zelenskyy’s response to Trump’s re-election was echoed by senior politicians in Kyiv who believe the Republican is capable of reinvigorating the west’s approach to Russia’s war.

“Feeling OK, lots of challenges but definitely new dynamics coming,” David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskyy’s parliamentary group told the Financial Times.

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, echoed that sentiment, saying that “Trump can definitely organise” more political momentum in Kyiv’s favour.

Oleksandr Merezhko, another MP in Zelenskyy’s party, who chairs the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said he was “cautiously optimistic” about Trump. “He wants to be a successful president and success means that Ukraine should become for him a success story, not a story of failure,” he said.

Heavily reliant on US military, financial, and diplomatic support, Ukrainians have spent the past few months closely following the US election campaign. Many had voiced support for the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris out of concern that Trump might force Kyiv’s capitulation.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, the Biden administration has given more than $64bn in security assistance to Ukraine, plus additional financial and humanitarian aid adding up to $174bn. Ukrainian forces on the eastern front are enduring relentless Russian attacks, which have led to the biggest and fastest territorial gains by their adversary since 2022.

A Ukrainian defence official said that many people in the country’s military “are afraid [US] assistance will stop and we’ll lose Donbas [in eastern Ukraine] at least”.

“For us, [US] support means life or death,” said a Ukrainian defence adviser. “We need to convince Trump to be with us.”

A Ukrainian military adviser said he was “more pessimistic” than the political leaders expressing support for Trump. “But some people think that his out-of-the-box approach will be actually the only one capable of some result,” he added.

An adviser to the Ukrainian government said he feared that Trump “may push the whole world into the era of chaos”.

“It might be a moment of truth for Europe, the UK to step up and be the adults in the room. But they may not be up to that task.”

Serhiy Fursa, a Ukrainian political analyst, said the return of Trump meant “the world once again turned the wrong way”.

“Putin celebrates, Orban celebrates, [Elon] Musk opens champagne. Today is a holiday for a lot of very unpleasant people,” he said.

More at the link!

The Biden administration needs to send everything that can be sent under the draw down authority, everything that can be or is being built in the defense contracting pipeline for weapons and munitions, and send all the funds appropriated by the end of the calendar year. It also needs to lift the restrictions on the use of US made weapons and munitions and those made with US components.

The former US negotiator on the Russia-Ukraine conflict says Trump wants the war over before taking office, success hangs on being tough on Putin who will have demands.

[image or embed]

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 6, 2024 at 4:56 PM

Here’s some excerpts of The Kyiv Independent‘s interview with Ambassador Volker:

Ambassador Kurt Volker is one person with a wealth of experience in issues Trump is likely to face regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Volker served as the U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations in 2017-2019, during Trump’s previous tenure. In this role, he held negotiations between Kyiv and senior members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration as an intermediary while coordinating with European allies on efforts to end Russia’s initial invasion of the eastern Donbas region in 2014, following its occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula earlier that year.

Before this, Volker served as U.S. ambassador to the NATO military alliance in 2008-2009.

The Kyiv Independent spoke to Volker via video call a few hours after the election result was called to ask how he sees outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden‘s last months in office, Trump’s return to the presidency, and what it could mean for Ukraine.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

The Kyiv Independent: In terms of Ukraine, there’s been a lot already said about what Trump might do once he’s in office, but we still have more than two months of the Biden administration. Do you think we can expect anything surprising from Biden before he leaves office?

Kurt Volker: There has been some discussion that I’ve heard within the administration about the idea of making a gesture in the direction of Ukraine’s NATO membership, or also about approving the use of long-range weapons (to strike deep inside Russia), something that the Biden administration has denied until now.

On NATO membership, we have to be very, very careful. You don’t want to put that out prematurely. You don’t want it to be uncoordinated with allies. We had an opportunity to do this leading up to the Washington summit this summer, and we didn’t do it. So to bring it up in the last moments of the Biden administration now does not seem to be the wisest choice. It needs to be better coordinated.

On the use of weapons, however, I think the Biden administration would be very well advised simply to just drop its objections. Just let Ukraine use the weapons we’ve given them. And this can be done quietly, it doesn’t have to be a big announcement. It can be done on a case-by-case basis, if the Biden administration insists.

But there’s no justification for allowing Russia to attack Ukraine from anywhere, and to tell Ukraine that they must not strike back.

The Kyiv Independent: Once Trump does take office, how far up his agenda do you think Ukraine will actually be?

Kurt Volker: I think he’s going to make a phone call to Putin as quickly as possible and tell Putin that he needs to stop the war, that the fighting has to stop, and that there has to be peace. And that will start a discussion about how that actually happens. And what I expect to happen is that Putin will have demands.

Putin will say ‘I need this, I need this, I need this.’ And I think Trump will say ‘no, you stop the war.’  But I do think it happens quite quickly, I don’t think Trump wants to see this war continue once he’s actually in office.

The Kyiv Independent: Trump obviously prides himself on being a bit of a dealmaker. How tricky an opponent do you think Putin will be in terms of actually arriving at a deal?

Kurt Volker: I think (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is the most cunning and wily opponent you could possibly have because he has no issues with lying, deceit, cheating, attacking, killing — everything you can imagine. Putin’s interest is not a deal. Putin’s interest is to take, he wants to take all of Ukraine.

And therefore, if you want to stop the war, if you want peace, as Trump says that he does, then what you need to do is convince Putin that it’s going to hurt him, that it’s going to cost him too much if he pursues the war. And that’s going to require showing much more strength.

And Trump has talked about this. He talks about Biden as being a very weak president.

And the implication is that Trump sees himself as a strong president. And he’s going to need to show some strength to Putin in order to get Putin to decide that it’s time to end the war.

The Kyiv Independent: Can you elaborate on some possible scenarios for how Trump can show that strength?

Kurt Volker: And then, when it comes to Ukraine itself, I think he’s going to seek support for a lend-lease program, letting Ukraine borrow money in order to buy American weapons. It’s something that was on the books for two years and never used during the Biden administration.

I don’t think Trump wants to spend American taxpayers’ money on Ukraine, but to allow Ukraine to borrow what it needs to defend itself. I think he would be inclined to do it. And if you make it big enough, if you make it, say, $500 billion, a huge number, that should be enough to tell Putin he can’t outspend this, he can’t win this, and that could also point the way towards a settlement.

The Kyiv Independent: If Trump proved anything during his last term in office, it was that he was quite unpredictable. Are there any curveball scenarios that you can envisage happening?

Kurt Volker: I suppose that’s what Putin is thinking about. Can Putin create a curveball scenario? Can he throw something on the table completely unexpected that gets us off track? Maybe Putin will actually come forward with a proposal that is far more reasonable than anything that Putin has proposed until now. Can that distract us? I think that would be the curveball scenario.

The Kyiv Independent: There’s a slightly somber mood in Kyiv this morning. Do you think that it’s justified, or should Ukrainians be more optimistic?

Ambassador Kurt Volker: Well, I wouldn’t say that people should be optimistic or somber. I’d say that people should stay determined. Ukraine is in the fight of its life. It has to win.

More at the link!

I think there’s a lot of motivated thinking in Ambassador Volker’s answers.

Poland:

Prime Minister Tusk:

Harris or Trump? Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us. On condition Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.

Germany:

It appears that Olaf Scholz has collapsed his coalition government by sacking the German Finance Minister. Politico Europe has the details:

Germany’s three-party ruling coalition collapsed on Wednesday evening after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he will fire Finance Minister Christian Lindner over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election within months.

The firing effectively ejects Lindner’s fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party  (FDP) from the troubled coalition, forcing Scholz to call for a confidence vote that he said would take place on January 15. If, as is likely, Scholz loses that vote, a snap election is set to take place by March.

The renewed political instability in Germany came just hours after Donald Trump’s clear win in the U.S. election, a result that stunned German political leaders, who depend on American military might for their country’s defense and fear Trump’s tariff policies will hobble German industry.

“Dear fellow citizens, I would have liked to have spared you this difficult decision, especially in times like these, when uncertainty is growing,” said Scholz in a statement at the chancellery.

But the rifts inside the coalition proved too great to overcome. Lindner and his FDP insisted that the German government stick to strict spending rules and cut taxes, even as his left-wing coalition partners wanted to maintain social spending and boost German industry through economic stimulus.

“All too often, Minister Lindner has blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,” said Scholz in a statement. “Too often he has engaged in petty party-political tactics. Too often he has broken my trust.”

Scholz said he had asked Linder to ease spending rules to allow more Ukraine aid, but Lindner refused, saying such a move would have “violated my oath of office.” Linder also attacked Scholz’s response to Germany’s economic weakness.

“Olaf Scholz has long failed to recognise the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” said Lindner in a statement. “He has long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.”

The FDP is the smallest party in the coalition and is now polling at only 4 percent — below the threshold needed to make it into the German parliament — meaning its leaders have been mulling a coalition break in order to save their political futures. By firing Lindner, Scholz appeared to be beating the FDP to the punch.

A snap election would likely usher in a new government led by the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which currently leads in polls by a wide margin. CDU leaders have taken a sharp turn to the right on migration in recent years, while also advocating for more robust military aid for Ukraine.

More at the link.

I will remind everyone that “may you live in interesting times” is not supposed to be a mission statement!!!

Dagestan, Russia:

Ukraine used a drone to strike the port of Kaspiysk. There is video at the link from Special Kherson Cat.

Another video of today’s drone strike on Russian port in Kaspiysk. ~1000km from the frontline.

From The Kyiv Independent:

Editor’s note: The article was updated with additional details from the Kyiv Independent’s sources.

Ukraine’s military intelligence was behind a drone attack against the city of Kaspiysk in Russia’s Dagestan Republic, targeting a Russian naval base, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent on Nov. 6.

At least two vessels – missile ships Tatarstan and Dagestan – were damaged in the attack, and possibly also several small Project 21631 ships, sources said.

Dagestan authorities reported intercepting a drone attack over Kaspiysk, a port city at the Caspian Sea around 1,000 kilometers from the front line (600 miles), on the morning of Nov. 6.

Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation center at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, also said on Telegram that a Russian naval base was hit in the attack.

“Russian Navy ships are stationed in Kaspiysk,” he said. The base is home to Russia’s Caspian Flotilla, as well as Russian Marines and Coastal Troops.

Sources said that the targeted fleet was involved in strikes against Ukraine, and the 177th Marine Regiment stationed there was deployed in combat in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

While Russian authorities claimed to have intercepted a single drone in the skies, a video shared on social media appears to show another drone hitting its target, resulting in a large explosion.

The incident took place roughly 15 kilometers from a local airport, the Mash news channel claimed, identifying the drone as a Ukrainian A-22 Flying Fox drone.

The nearby Makhachkala airport has suspended operations for an indefinite period due to the incident, local authorities said.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

Video and images at the link.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

From The Kyiv Post:

Russian forces have suffered 7,905 soldiers killed, 12,220 injured, and 717 captured during almost three months of the Kursk incursion, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Nov. 6.

Over the same period, Moscow’s military also lost 1,101 pieces of equipment, including 54 tanks, 276 armored vehicles, 107 artillery pieces and mortars, and five anti-aircraft weapons, according to the commander.

Ukraine launched its cross-border incursion in early August to prevent Russian cross-border strikes and draw Russian forces away from the embattled Donbas region, where Moscow keeps steadily advancing.

According to Syrskyi, Russia has already concentrated 45,000 troops in Kursk Oblast to counter the ongoing Ukrainian incursion.

Moscow has also deployed thousands of North Korean troops in the embattled region, with some reportedly already clashing with Ukraine in small-scale engagements.

The Kursk incursion was also intended to preempt a Russian plan to invade Sumy Oblast to create a “buffer zone” in northern Ukraine, Syrskyi said, citing intelligence reports from May.

Russia has been mounting pressure against the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast while also advancing in Ukraine’s east at a pace unseen in 2024, steadily pushing back Ukrainian defenders.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Some deep thought’s from Patron on his twitter feed:

I’ve been thinking all day about the main news of today. I constantly think not only about my country but also about this world. What will it be like in the future? Will we overcome all the evil and tackle such crucial issues as ecology, the fight against hunger, and poverty? I genuinely hope we will. This is what I wish for all of us. Good night, Western Hemisphere, and have a great day, Eastern Hemisphere.

There’s a lovely pic of Patron at the link, so click through and take a look.

Open thread!