(Image by NEIVANMADE)
A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
As I start tonight’s update – 8:55 PM EST/3:55 AM local time in Ukraine – over 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alert. Other than an indicator of a potential sea launched threat, there’s no indicators that Russian fixed wing aviation is up.
Noga Tarnopolsky has reported that Brian Lanza, who is a senior natsec advisor to the President-elect gave an interview to BBC Weekend. His remarks are not encouraging:
💥Senior Trump advisor Bryan Lanza throws Ukraine under the bus (if Zelensky wants Creemiyah back, forget it, he says, its gone) says there is no two state solution and Netanyahu– “he can do whatever he wants to get the hostages back.” @AlbanaKasapi bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0k3gh…
From the BBC:
A former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia.
Bryan Lanza, who worked on Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, told the BBC the incoming administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a “realistic vision for peace”.
“And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he’s not serious,” he said. “Crimea is gone.”
A spokesperson for Trump distanced the incoming president from the remarks, saying Mr Lanza “does not speak for him”.
The president-elect has consistently said his priority is to end the war and stem what he characterises as a drain on US resources, in the form of military aid to Ukraine.
But he has yet to divulge how he intends to do so – and will likely be hearing competing visions for Ukraine’s future from his various advisers.
Mr Lanza, a Trump political adviser during his 2016 and 2024 campaigns, did not mention areas of eastern Ukraine, but he said regaining Crimea from Russia was unrealistic and “not the goal of the United States”.
“When Zelensky says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we’ve got news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone,” he told the BBC World Service’s Weekend programme.
“And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you’re on your own.”
The US has never deployed American soldiers to fight in Ukraine, nor has Kyiv requested American troops fight on its behalf. Ukraine has only requested American military aid to arm its own soldiers.
Mr Lanza said he had tremendous respect for the Ukrainian people, whose “hearts are made of lions”. But he said the US priority was “peace and to stop the killing”.
“What we’re going to say to Ukraine is, you know what you see? What do you see as a realistic vision for peace. It’s not a vision for winning, but it’s a vision for peace. And let’s start having the honest conversation,” he said.
In response, Zelensky’s adviser Dmytro Lytvyn characterised Mr Lanza’s remarks as placing the pressure for peace on Ukraine when it was “Putin who wants more war”.
“Putin loses most of his people in assaults at the front. What does this indicate? It is obvious that he wants to fight on,” he said.
“Ukraine has been offering peace since 2022 – there are quite realistic proposals. And it is Russia that must be made to hear that peace is needed and that peace must be reliable, so that there is simply no repetition of Russian strikes.”
A spokesperson for Trump’s transition team – which prepares the incoming administration for office – said Mr Lanza was “a contractor for the campaign”, but “does not work for President Trump and does not speak for him”.
Trump is expected to handle peace talks with a close circle of aides once in office.
An unnamed National Security Council aide who previously served under Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday: “Anyone – no matter how senior in Trump’s circle – who claims to have a different view or more detailed window into his plans on Ukraine simply doesn’t know what he or she is talking about.”
They said that the former president “makes his own calls on national security issues” and had done so “many times in the moment”.
Here’s Maria Avdeeva’s take:
If Mr. Lanza wants an honest conversation, here it is. This strategy doesn’t just empower Putin; it encourages other rogue states to use nuclear blackmail and invade neighboring countries, tearing down the world order. And, honestly, Putin has already said as much himself.
We’ve got a lot of mixed signals here. We’ve got the Ukrainian take away from yesterday’s call between President Zelenskyy and the President-elect (and the Starlink Snowflake). We’ve got Brian Lanza’s statements to the BBC. We’ve got several different spokespeople for the President-elect contradicting Lanza.
This is going to be the same ongoing problem it was during the President-elect’s first term. As we’ve seen over the past year with the various Middle East states and non-state actors that are in conflict, as well as the past three years in regard to Ukraine and Russia, things get immeasurably harder if there is not clear, deliberate communication and messaging. It is going to be especially bad during the transition as a number of people are jockeying for not just political appointments, but for specific positions with specific rank.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Surpassed the Milestone of the First 100 Units of Missile Armament This Year – Address by the President
9 November 2024 – 19:07
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, I have already held several meetings on defense issues.
The first one was about our specialized production, our strategic industries, our weaponry. There was a report by Oleksandr Kamyshin. This year, we managed to achieve significant results in several areas. This includes our Ukrainian artillery – our shells, our cannons. It also includes drones – of different types, for different tasks – types that not only help defend the frontline positions and destroy the occupier, but also strike deeper and deeper into Russia. We will scale this up. We surpassed the milestone of the first 100 units of missile armament this year. I will not go into details here, but I would like to thank everyone who is involved in this production of ours, who organizes the relevant processes. And we are going to expand this area. Currently, more than 800 companies are working on the production of weapons for our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine. Now, for the first time in more than 30 years of independence, we have not just individual investment steps of our partners in Ukraine, but systemic investment models. In particular, this is the model of Denmark, the Danish model, which invests and attracts investments in production. We have also agreed with France on a slightly different model – it also includes technology and the construction of relevant production facilities. We also have preliminary agreements with our other partners to localize arms production specifically in Ukraine. And this is something that will consistently make us stronger.
The second for today is a report from the military and the Ministry of Defense. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, Minister of Defense Umerov. Most attention is now focused on the Kurakhove direction.
And third. Sadly, this week has brought Ukraine brutal Russian strikes on Kharkiv, the Donetsk region, the Sumy region, and Odesa. Zaporizhzhia. In fact, drone strikes occur on a daily basis. Missile strikes, too. And every meeting, every negotiation with partners who have appropriate air defense systems is always a conversation about additional protection of Ukraine from Russian terror. Here in Europe, on the continent, there are enough air defense systems that can ensure a truly effective defense for Ukraine. And this is beyond understanding when air defense systems are just standing there. Standing idle when each system can save hundreds or even thousands of lives. We will continue to convince our partners.
And now I want to commend the Ukrainian rescuers. The entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, who is working in areas where, quite objectively, there is a lack of enhanced air defense capabilities. Zaporizhzhia: Ihor Kariagin, Yurii Shandor, Oleksandr Liashenko, Andrii Pavlenko and Oleksii Sukhorukov deserve our special gratitude. Odesa: Ivan Haitian, Fedir Kaisyn, Vitalii Labutin, Oleksandr Mykytiuk, and Serhii Rudyi. Kyiv: Oleksandr Chuliuk, Vladyslav Zazymko, Oleksandr Volynets, Vasyl Chornenkyi, Vadym Kozhukhivskyi and Vitalii Minkov. I thank you guys, and I want to thank all your colleagues as well! I thank everyone who works for the benefit of Ukraine and everyone who fights for our state and for our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Estonia:
The Kyiv Independent reports that Estonia is providing more air defense aid to Ukraine:
The Estonian arms company Frankenburg Technologies will transfer air defense missiles to Ukraine for testing, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced on Nov. 8.
Kyiv has been calling on its partners to provide additional air defense assets as Russia intensifies its strikes against cities and energy infrastructure.
The first samples for testing will be delivered in the coming months. The missiles to be trialed by Ukraine are designed to counter drones, and can shoot down targets at an altitude of up to 2 kilometers (1 mile), the ministry said.
“Our goal is to help Ukraine win this war. To do this, we offer a sample of a new low-cost missile to shoot down air targets, primarily unmanned aerial vehicles,” said Kusti Salm, CEO of Frankenburg Technologies and former Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Defense Ministry.
Salm met with Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Brigadier General Anatolii Klochko, and discussed the upcoming tests.
The next step is to agree on a financing format for missile production, according to the statement. If the trials are successful and the Defense Ministry and Frankenburg Technologies agree on further use of the weapons, Ukraine may also arrange the production of these missiles.
Frankenburg Technologies is a defense-industrial company founded in 2024 and headquartered in Tallinn. It currently operates in Ukraine, Latvia, and Estonia.
Estonia and Ukraine signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on June 26. The deal stipulates that Estonia will supply Ukraine with defense aid worth more than 100 million euros ($107 million) this year and will allocate at least 0.25% of its gross domestic product (GDP) annually for military support in 2024–2027.
Kyiv and Tallinn will also launch a regular “strategic dialogue” and deepen their military-industrial cooperation.
The US:
According to The Kyiv Independent, the US is going to push a huge package out to Ukraine:
The Biden administration will rush the delivery of over 500 interceptor missiles for the Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile (NASAMS) systems to Kyiv, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Nov. 9, citing a senior administration official.
The deliveries come as the Biden administration is planning to rush the delivery of the remaining approximately $7 billion in military aid to Ukraine ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in January 2025.
The weapons, which are expected to arrive in the coming weeks, should meet the demand for Ukraine air defense needs for the remainder of 2024, the official said.
No details were provided as to how many of each interceptor missile would be provided.
Two administration officials told Politicoon Nov. 7 that the White House plans to expedite the weapons delivery amid concerns that a future Trump administration would halt weapons shipments before they reach Kyiv.
Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war within “24 hours” and get the U.S. “out” of Ukraine — a plan that may involve ceding Ukrainian territory and creating autonomous regions in the east, according to reporting in October.
In June, two top advisors to Trump proposed a plan that would cease military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to hold peace negotiations with Russia, Reuters reported, citing the advisors, retired General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleit.
Despite President Biden’s ability to deliver existing weapons stocks through presidential drawdown authority, White House officials are concerned that the delivery of the large amount of weaponry may take months to reach Ukraine — well past Trump’s inauguration into office.
In addition to the interceptors, a Pentagon official said on Nov. 8 that the White House was preparing to send “a small number of contractors” to maintain F-16 fighter jets as well as other air defense systems. The White House previously rejected the plan as late as August but has changed course amid an increase in inoperable and unserviceable weaponry.
“Ensuring these weapon systems remain mission capable is critical for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression,” a statement by the Pentagon read.
Most recently on Oct. 16, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the latest $425 million in new security assistance for Ukraine during a phone call with Zelensky.
Of course, the Biden administration claimed it was rushing a huge shipment as soon as the supplemental was signed and most of that stuff still hasn’t gotten to Ukraine.
The EU:
The Kyiv Independent has the details on newly issued assurances from the EU’s Josep Borrell to Ukraine:
During a visit to Kyiv on Nov. 9, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, reassured Kyiv of the EU’s “unwavering” support amid uncertainty about the level of U.S. support under President-elect Donald Trump’s leadership.
“We need faster deliveries and fewer self-imposed red lines,” Borrell said referring to his support of allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russian with Western-provided long range weaponry.
Borrell arrived in Kyiv earlier in the day for his fifth trip to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Ahead of talks with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Borrell vowed that the EU’s support for Ukraine has always been his “personal priority” and should remain on top of the bloc’s agenda.
“This support remains unwavering. This support is absolutely needed for you to continue defending yourself against Russia’s aggression,” Borrell said during a news conference with Sybiha after the meeting.
Borrell’s latest visit to Kyiv as the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy comes a few days after Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump secured victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Although Trump has remained vague about his foreign policy plans, his sweeping victory added further uncertainty for Ukraine regarding the future of Western military aid in its defense against the ongoing Russian invasion.
The Telegraph reported on Nov. 7, citing three Trump staffers, that Trump may call on British and European troops to enforce a buffer zone that he would try to impose over the current front line in Ukraine. Under the plan, the current front line in Ukraine would be frozen.
The U.S. would supply weapons to Ukraine to prevent Moscow from re-launching the war, according to the Telegraph. In exchange, Ukraine would agree not to pursue its ambition to join NATO for 20 years, the sources said.
During the news conference in Kyiv alongside Borrell, Sybiha said President Volodymyr Zelensky will begin preparations for a meeting with Trump.
Borrell added that EU defense ministers will meet next week to discuss “boosting support at this critical hour,” including both military and diplomatic support for Kyiv.
A staunch supporter of Ukraine, Borrell’s visit to Kyiv follows a visit to South Korea earlier in November, where he encouraged Seoul to step up its support for Ukraine amid rising concerns over North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian troops in the war against Ukraine.
All of these promises, assurances, and statements are coming against the reality that despite sanctions, Russia will still produce 30% more artillery than the entire EU combined next year. From The Kyiv Independent:
Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all EU member states combined next year, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said at a press conference in Kyiv on Nov. 9.
“According to Ukrainian intelligence, using the information we have, if there is no proper response or prevention, Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all countries of the European Union combined,” he said in comments reported by Ukrinform.
Sybiha called for international action to constrain Russia’s industrial capacity.
“First of all, here I am referring to the shadow fleet, which helps Russia circumvent sanctions and continue to trade energy resources, oil. It is very important that the further strengthening of the EU’s sanctions policy of our allies focus on this aspect,” he said.
An ammunition shortage has long been a cause for concern in Ukraine but has escalated this year. The EU failed to deliver on its promise to produce 1 million artillery shells between March 2023 and 2024 while disputes in Washington led to a severe delay in a $61 billion aid package.
Several countries have backed a Czech-led initiative to procure 800,000 shells for Ukraine proposed in February this year. In March, the EU allocated 500 million euros ($544 million) to bolster the EU’s ammunition production capacity to 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025.
Ukraine has long tried to ramp up its own domestic ammunition production to become more independent from Western partners.
In the summer of 2023, Ukroboronprom said that it had already mastered the production of 82 mm mortar mines, 122 mm, and 152 mm artillery rounds, as well as 125 mm tank shells.
Earlier media reports cited Ukrainian officials hoping to begin producing “desperately needed” NATO-standard 155 mm artillery rounds in the ‘second half’ of 2024 at the earliest.
Despite domestic efforts, the Ukrainian army still mainly depends on supplying 155 mm shells from partners, as European countries join forces to buy the rounds outside Europe.
The U.S. also opened a new factory last May to produce 155 mm munitions for Ukraine and significantly increased production in some existing factories.
Illia Ponomarenko reports that the Russians have executed another Ukrianian POW:
The Russian military executed yet another injured and disarmed Ukrainian soldier. Russians have knowingly made atrocities and war crimes an everyday practice in Ukraine while the West is still obsessed with escalation management and trying to pretend it’s not happening in Europe in 2024.
Don’t click on the link!
Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight Team have a new assessment that focuses on whether lifting the restrictions on ATACMS use would actually be helpful for Ukraine:
One point of tension between Zelensky and the Biden admins was the issue of allowing ATACMS strikes inside Russia. Frontelligence Insight conducted geospatial analysis and spoke with former U.S. officials and experts from leading US think tanks. Summary of our report🧵:2/ When a Pentagon spokesperson suggested that Russia had moved assets capable of KAB strikes from airfields within ATACMS range, the statement was correct. Our research confirms that Russia relocated Su-34/35 jets from bases like Voronezh Air Base.3/ At the same time, our analysis of satellite imagery from September 28 reveals that at least 14 combat and transport helicopters, along with eight Su-25 close-air-support jets, were stationed at the Kursk airport when the images were captured.4/ Lipetsk Air Base is over 290 kilometers from the edges of Kharkiv Oblast. It hosts various Su jets, including Su-24, Su-30, Su-27, Su-34, and Su-35, all capable of deploying KAB bombs. However, it lies beyond ATACMS range unless Ukraine positions launchers at the border.5/ Russia continues to use Forward Arming and Refueling Points within the ATACMS range, including near Kursk Air Base in Kursk Oblast. At the same time, FARPs typically host only a few helicopters, making the potential impact of a strike limited.6/ Military warehouses, railroad stations, and ammo depots in Rostov, Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts fall within ATACMS range. Destruction of supply trains disrupts troop effectiveness, as seen in the attack on Toropets, which damaged or destroyed 20 railcars.7/ In a plausible scenario, a single artillery ammo delivery train could have 10 covered wagons and 10 flatbeds, each carrying two containers. A single strike could destroy over 13,400 152mm shells, along with railcars and the locomotive, temporarily blocking the route8/ Our team has identified many more cases, including air defense sites and training camps, which you can find in our report linked at the end of this thread. Given all these factors and their potential impact, one might ask: why there is no green light on ATACMS strikes?9/ Contrary to popular belief, the main concern within the U.S. security community is not nuclear escalation, but the broader implications for U.S. interests globally – particularly the risk of strengthening adversaries and their proxies in key regions.10/ A prime example is the potential for Russia, in response to U.S. missile deliveries, to share advanced missile (P-800) and rocket technologies with Iran or its proxies, like the Houthis in Yemen. This could introduce a new threat to the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East11/ This scenario isn’t hypothetical – Russia has indeed supplied targeting data to the Houthis, facilitating attacks on global shipping and raising stakes for the West with potentially multi-billion dollar implications.12/ Russia keeps leverage through its partnership with North Korea, threatening the transfer of missile, EW, and air defense technologies. Russia’s ability to enhance North Korea’s ICBM capabilities, directly threatening the U.S. mainland cannot be ignored by Washington13/ Another factor, shared by one of our sources, is the ATACMS interception rate – a number that you can find in our full report. This raises concerns among U.S. officials, who worry that the risks will outweigh any benefits, given the interception and low salvo rates14/ This aligns with issues from Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive, where Storm Shadow strikes often lacked coordinated operational intent, displaying Ukraine’s poor ability to integrate missile strikes into the broader operational picture.15/ These are legitimate concerns that cannot be easily dismissed. The U.S. security community’s primary focus is safeguarding US security. The key question is whether the potential benefits of Ukraine using ATACMS to strike Russian airfields outweigh the risks.16/ Considering that the U.S. has already transferred dozens of missiles in the past, it becomes clear that even if additional missiles are supplied with permission to strike, a strategic shift should not be anticipated, making the risk-benefit ratio less compelling.17/ Yet, wars of attrition are rarely decided by a single strike. Instead, they are shaped by the cumulative actions that gradually shift the balance. The destruction of training centers, helicopters, CAS jets, bridges, warehouses, and S-300 batteries is undeniably beneficial.18/ The public focus on KAB and airfields has been unproductive. The reason why Ukraine is losing the war is not because of KABs. The benefits of ATACMS should be evaluated within a strategic framework that integrates these systems into a broader, realistic operational plan19/ This means that the Ukrainian government also has to do some homework because so far it has failed to convey the benefits of such a campaign to the US side, which is going to absorb the risks associated with the provision of ATACMS.20/ Our team concluded that we must acknowledge the associated risks, especially if the discussion is to be taken seriously. The focus should shift to a broader argument addressing the underlying challenges Ukraine faces, rather than fixating on a single KAB – ATACMS issue.21/ Please leave a comment, share, and like the first message in our thread to aid with visibility. We encourage you to access our full report by becoming a paid subscriber on Stack, where we regularly publish in-depth reports and analyses like this one
frontelligence.substack.com/p/the-us-sta…The U.S. Stance on ATACMS for Ukraine: Justified or Misguided?Analysis: Understanding the Risks, Benefits, and Alternativesfrontelligence.substack.com
The Kyiv Independent reports on Colonel-General Syrskyi’s assessment of the theater strategic situation:
The situation on the front lines is “challenging” and “trending towards escalation,” Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Nov. 9.
“The situation remains challenging and is trending towards escalation. The enemy, leveraging its numerical advantage, continues offensive operations, concentrating its efforts primarily in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions,” Syrskyi said in a post on Facebook.
“We have numerous reports about the preparation of North Korean soldiers to participate in combat operations alongside Russian forces,” he added without providing further details.
Syrskyi was reporting what he had told General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s top commander in Europe, in a phone call earlier in the day.
According to a Bloomberg analysis published on Nov. 1, Ukraine has lost 1,146 square kilometers of its own territory since the launch of the Kursk Oblast incursion in early August, with the week up until Nov. 1 reported as the worst in terms of lost territory in all of 2024.
On Nov. 2, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine was facing “one of the most powerful” Russian offensives since the start of the all out war.
Over autumn, large chunks of Ukrainian territory, sometimes including entire cities, have been lost on a near-daily basis in southern Donetsk Oblast, while Russian forces have also made operationally significant gains near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, as well as on their own soil in Kursk Oblast.
Maria Avdeeva reports that the Ukrainians have recovered a downed, but intact, Russian Shahed drone with a thermobaric warhead.
Shahed drone equipped with thermobaric warhead for extra destructive power. Downed and found almost completely intact
Video at the link.
Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
From Iryna Voichuk:
Saturday morning in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast: two civilians burned alive in a russian air strike. This is reality. Speak up now – before such cruelty becomes routine, before silence makes it acceptable
Kate from Kharkiv has more details:
A Russian missile strike on Kupiansk around 11 AM today resulted in the deaths of a man and a woman. A 61-year-old man was also injured. According to the regional prosecutor’s office, the victims were struck by downed power lines, sparking a fire. Their bodies were severely burned, and authorities are working to identify them. The prosecutor’s office believes a KAB-1500 guided bomb was used in the attack. The strike damaged private homes, apartment buildings, and outbuildings, and destroyed 15 garages.
Kharkiv:
In the fifth episode of “Dare to Ukraine,” we explore Kharkiv, a city that embodies resilience in the face of adversity. Despite enduring severe damage and remaining under the constant horror of Russia’s war, Kharkiv’s spirit remains unbroken.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 9, 2024 at 8:17 AM
Saratov Oblast, Russia:
Ukrainian drones hit oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov, HUR source confirms; Ukraine to receive $6 billion in US military aid before Trump’s term begins, Pentagon confirms; and more.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 8, 2024 at 4:17 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Ukrainian drones operated by military intelligence (HUR) attacked an oil refinery in the Russian city of Saratov on Nov. 8, a military intelligence source confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.
Earlier in the day, Saratov Oblast Governor Ruslan Busargin said that a Ukrainian drone targeted the city.
According to Busargin, air defenses downed the drone over the city and debris fell in the industrial area in the Zavodsky district. He did not report any casualties or damage.
The city hosts the Saratov Oil Refinery, formerly known as the Cracking Plant, which is part of Rosneft, the state-run oil company. The refinery is located in the city’s Zavodsky District.
The HUR source said drones hit one of the plant’s oil refineries and fuel oil tanks, and cited local media reports of multiple explosions.
Overnight, a total of 17 Ukrainian drones were “destroyed and intercepted,” according to a report by the Russian Defense Ministry. Six drones were reportedly shot down over Saratov Oblast.
Saratov is a city in southwestern Russia, located nearly 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
This is not the first time drones have attacked Saratov Oblast — drones reportedly struck Saratov Oblast overnight on Aug. 26. At least four civilians were reportedly injured in the attack.
Voronezh Oblast, Russia:
Special Kherson Cat brings us a true tale from the land of “if nothing is true, everything is possible.”
A prankster sent a letter to schools in the Voronezh region of Russia under the guise of a demand from the ruling ‘United Russia’ party to make and wear tinfoil hats to protect against NATO satellite radiation. 7 schools complied with the demand, 2 of them involved children in creating the tinfoil hats.
Apparently, they’ve opened a chapter of Mom’s for Liberty.
Video at the link.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Suzanne
So, I heard something yesterday that I wanted to ask about. i was listening to Benjamin Wittes on the Bulwark podcast, and he commented that there is a lot of anger at Biden from Ukraine (and maybe Ukrainians in the U.S.?) for limiting the use of the weapons provided. Is this accurate? This is not a thing I have heard anywhere else. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
glc
There’s a “Brian Hill” mentioned in a context that appears to be Bryan Lanza?
KatKapCC
@Suzanne: From what I’ve read in these posts as well as on Instagram and such, it is very accurate. Zelensky himself has been very open with his frustration about not being allowed to strike long-range targets inside Russia.
Think about it: People there are dying every day, their homes and schools and businesses and towns are being decimated, their children have to spend countless hours hiding in subway stations. And a lot of this is going on because they are told they cannot attack targets inside Russian borders. Wouldn’t you be pissed if it were your home, your city, your life at risk, and your hands were being tied behind your back
Not to mention, as Adam notes, there have been many promised shipments of weapons and aid that have taken forever to show up or simply never have. Ukrainians have every right to be exceedingly angry about all of this.
YY_Sima Qian
I am seeing reports that Halley & Pompeo are out of consideration for the new Trump Administration? It’s a good thing that the two naked primacists will not be in the Administration, but whoever is in their stead are likely to be just as bad, if not worse (not sure how, but it can always be worse).
Adam L Silverman
@Suzanne: Yes. I’ve covered it here. G&T has brought it up many times.
Medicine Man
I hope Ukrainian leadership is work shopping ways to appeal to Trump’s ego. I’d suggest invoking the timidity of Biden and his team. There is plenty of truth to work with after all.
The situation they’re in makes me ill to think about.
I was thinking about Biden’s failures when dealing with Trump. His inability to recognize that various governing norms are in the past. Defunct. His old guard mentality really screwed them up. Inability to imagine even a partial break with Israel. Inability to imagine bruising Moscow’s pride; I’m more than partially convinced on this point, how Ukrainians describe some US leadership as almost having imperial sympathy with russia.
A steady leader who wasn’t treated all that well (imo) but was really stuck in the past in some disastrous ways.
Adam L Silverman
@glc: Thanks. Fixed.
YY_Sima Qian
Tanner Greer of Foreign Policy Research Institute tried to conceptually organize Trump’s FP motley coterie that will vie for influence in his administration, into “Primacists, Internationalists, Prioritizers, & Restrainers”:
The Battle to Shape Trump’s China Policy
I believe Halley & Pompeo are both examples of Primacists, but I think the distinction between Primacists & Internationalists are one of style rather than substance, especially for the people willing to work for Trump.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
Brian Lanza worked as a lobbyist for Dimitri Firtash, to get him off the Sanctions list, worked with Rusal and McConnell to allow the sanctioned ruZZian Company to get off the sanctions list and set up an Aluminum factory in McConnell’s district, also worked to get pardons and favours for Manafort, Gates, and Kilimnik.
The calls are coming from inside the House.
Mai Naem mobile ¹
I know this sounds really dumb but how hard is to give Ukraine a nuke weapon? Can’t Biden on his way out give one to Zelensky as a going away present, and as a nice little incoming gift for TFGs admin? Isn’t a nuke kind of the ultimate defense weapon especially against Putin?
Splitting Image
@Mai Naem mobile ¹:
A nuke isn’t really an effective deterrent. The ability to make a nuke, or fifty of them if need be, is a deterrent.
KatKapCC
@Mai Naem mobile ¹: Based on everything we know about how Biden and his team have mishandled this situation and how long they refused to give them ATACMS and other things, do you really think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of him giving Zelensky a nuke as a Hanukkah present?
And what do you think that would solve? Putin is a lot of things but he’s not a complete idiot. Just as him using a nuke would cause massive ripple effects that would be the exact opposite of ending this war, so too would Ukraine using one. So them having one would not be a deterrent if there is no reasonable chance whatsoever that they would use it.
Gin & Tonic
@Mai Naem mobile ¹:
A nuclear Ukraine makes things much more complicated at the moment, especially if it’s in the form of a gift. However, while I have no special knowledge, Ukraine has very capable engineers and very likely has weapons-grade enriched uranium somewhere, since inventory control after the breakup of the USSR was, how shall we say, not very effective, so could very conceivably be working on a weapons program of their own.
What the events of the last three years have shown is that nuclear non-proliferation is deader than the Monty Python parrot.
Jay
The only “Peace Plan” for Ukraine and the Global West is for ruZZia to be defeated, the ruZZian Military crippled, Ukraine to get all their land and people back.
The US has become useless for Global Security under Biden, will become destructive under Dolt45.
The EU and NATO nations are just starting to realize they are on their own.
It’s all up to Ukrainians now.
Gin & Tonic
@Medicine Man: I’ve written about this before and it’s too late in the evening for another round of that, but the foreign-policy educational establishment in the US/Canada/Western Europe since the immediate post-WWII years has been wired for russia (as the dominant player in the USSR.) Major universities with departments of “russian and Eastern European Studies” with faculties fluent in russian and no other Slavic languages, produced, naturally, russia-centric scholars, then russia-centric students who went on to DoS and Foreign Ministries of all “Western” governments. It’s been baked in for 75 years. I think there may have been 2-3 universities in North America where you could do PhD-level work in Ukrainian language or literature.
ETA: Sorry, this is in reply to the “almost imperial sympathies” line in your post.
Gin & Tonic
@Suzanne: What Adam said.
Medicine Man
@Gin & Tonic: No apologies necessary. I believe I’ve read some of your posts here and you are one of the people I had in mind. I’ve heard similar things said by other people in E. Europe, including Ukrainians and US expats fighting alongside them.
Yutsano
I can tell you this much: if NATO disappears, there is almost nothing else that will keep Poland from getting more involved with Ukraine.
Jay
@Yutsano:
NATO is not going to “disappear”, it just might have little to no US involvement or influence, along with Hungary and Slovakia.
The EU will probably get smaller by 2 in the short term.
SEATO is toast however.
Maybe NORAD.
RepubAnon
Trump is likely to win the Neville Chamberlain “Peace in Our Time” award. Except this time, the world war will start when Trump decides to attack Iran, and Russia and China will join in the fun.
Mallard Filmore
Let me guess … Trump no longer needs Putin’s help to get more power in the USA. Russia is running out of money and troops. How can Putin buy Trump’s cooperation ???
RepubAnon
@Mallard Filmore: Some prime hotel locations in the Crimea?
Bupalos
I knew it was always true that Trump was more likely to win. But I can’t believe we have to think about this guy and how he is going to move on this. So sick that this nincompoop has peoples lives in his sweaty little fingers.
i’m hopeful that his administration is so fucked up that he is unable to do what would come naturally to him. Sell out Ukraine to suck up to Putin.
wjca
NORAD may be OK just because Trump hasn’t heard of it. Sometimes there’s much to be said for flying under the radar.
Mallard Filmore
@wjca:
If Trump has heard of NORAD its only because it tracks Santa Clause.
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
What’s the Santa Clause? Some obscure DOJ break and enter rule?
Jay
@wjca:
Canada does most of the “grunt work” in NORAD, and yet, we arn’t the target. Part of the reason why we don’t meet Dol45’s “NATO” target goals, is NORAD, Peacekeeping, etc.
So yeah, I can see NORAD being a target.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1855328094363467989#m
Mallard Filmore
@Jay:
My mistake. It’s a sanity clause.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbUDSxJFsDA
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
Aaaaah, got it, it was the White Supremacy Court ruling that there was no “quid pro quo” because the cookies and milk came after the the “gifts” were delivered.
SomeRandomGuy
@Suzanne: your question was answered, but, another thing to add is, if you cant attack your opponent, how can you cost them so much in resources that they stop killing your people?
When they send weapons and bodies to the front, those are sunk costs. They knew they weren’t likely to get them back. If they all die/get destroyed, well, they *decided* they could lose some of them, and have to spend the rest of the time reforming military units.
But now, they can send in planes, drones, and missiles, from a distance that Ukraine can’t reach, and Ukraine can cost them weapon money, but can’t even wear down their troops.
More important, Ukraine has no way to make the cost of fighting for Russia to be *so high* that they feel they must stop military action. *That* is why the US has truly crippled the Ukraine military. They won’t get tired and stop fighting – they have to be forced to stop.
Frankly, if Biden was Trump, he’d give the Ukrainians full authority to strike anywhere they’d want to, because it won’t be his problem to solve, but unlike Republicans, Biden loves the USA.
Doug
@Suzanne:
Yes, a significant share of the Eastern and Central European twitter people I read are very angry at the Biden administration, particularly for the limits placed on targets within Russia. At the further end of the spectrum, it shades into the claim that the US administration is deliberately keeping Ukraine from winning because reasons. It’s not very coherent, but it’s understandable.
Doug
“things get immeasurably harder if there is not clear, deliberate communication and messaging”
Narrator: Neither Trump administration ever had or will have clear, deliberate communication and messaging.
DMcK
@Jay: I have nothing but a layman’s passing expertise here so I proffer my apologies and am eager to read counter arguments, but my gut tells me that this whole scheme is straight outta One-Weird-Tricksville. And this statement, I believe, is patently incorrect:
Putin is Trump’s current Daddy figure, and his deeply disordered psyche absolutely depends on Daddy’s approval. Ukraine is the little brother that Daddy has license to bully at will, and any imagined “benefits” to be gained will be, as before, in the form of quid pro quo from Zelenskyy, who I imagine would decline the opportunity once again.
JWR
@DMcK:
I wonder how Trump’s long held desire for a self-branded Tower in Moscow might play into this, regardless of how it does or doesn’t affect Ukraine.
zhena gogolia
Deleted. I’m not going to bother.
Eolirin
@DMcK: It also assumes that Trump has something like a worldview and coherent sense of second order consequences and isn’t just a reactive impulsive empty pit of neediness. Or at least that the people around him can do proper assessment of these things and can shape his behavior.
I do not think those things are true. Especially this time.
This doesn’t mean Ukraine is guaranteed to see a bad result. Trump could potentially have a falling out with Putin. But it does mean that the situation will not be bounded by what we would consider rational assessment or concern for potential consequence or that positions will be consistent and remain so over time.
We have put control of the most powerful economy and military in the world into the hands of a tantruming toddler being babysat by a pit of self interested vipers. The only thing we can count on is chaos.
xjmuellerlurks
Moms for Liberty, Voronezh chapter. It’s 9:00 am here and that made my day.
jonas
@Suzanne: Yes, there are a lot of observers in Eastern Europe and Ukraine who would have liked to have seen Ukraine be able to take the gloves off. While some of that (ill-advised, as Adam has been saying here) restraint was a result of Biden admin officials not having a clear plan to help Ukraine win outright, it was also the price for keeping the broader NATO coalition together on this. Scholz, Macron, Meloni and others were not going to go along with a more aggressive posture against Russia and the US bullying them into doing so wouldn’t have been helpful. I think at the beginning they hoped that just helping Ukraine hold out would be enough to eventually make Putin cry uncle and back off, but that’s obviously not happening. So it’s either arm Ukraine and let them fight how they need to fight, or hang them out to dry. Trump definitely wants to hang them out to dry. We’ll see what the rest of NATO does, but I suspect it won’t be to let them fight.
Eolirin
@jonas: Macron has evolved on this, and Scholz is about to be gone. A number of things could change there.
But there’s a fundamental problem in that the European countries have wasted time in which they needed to be massively ramping up their industrial production and are at a deficit that they may not be able to close fast enough.
Butter Emails!!!
@Eolirin:
Trump might not be willing to help Ukraine, but he’d certainly be more than willing to sell arms to Europe and announce all those big beautiful deals.
way2blue
@Doug: I saw a new excuse yesterday about why the U.S. is blocking Ukraine from using U.S.-made weapons in Russia (including European weapons with U.S.-made components). Namely, the Biden team is not so much worried about Russian escalation against Ukraine (with sabotage spillover in NATO countries)—rather that Russia would provide nuclear weapon technology to allied countries. So? Seems to me Russia could do this whenever…
wjca
In general, Trump is utterly transactional. You’re only important as long as he can get something out of you. But the one exception is when there is some individual or group whose acceptance or approval he craves. He tried desperately for years to get the acceptance of New York City high society. Now, the approval he appears to crave is Putin’s.
Putin could get replaced, of course. Musk might have done it . . . except he is too needy himself to dangle possible approval in front of Trump without ever quite giving it. Putin is far better at this psychological game. The question in my mind is whether Zelenskyy can play on Trump’s desperate need not to appear weak to get him to abandon Russia for Ukraine. I’m not at all sure it’s possible. But if it works, the race will be on to replace Putin. I’d bet on Xi as the most likely figure.