A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
We’ve made it to another Veterans’ Day. Which, as everyone is tracking, is different in the US than for the rest of our allies and partners that observe today as Remembrance Day or Armistice Day. For us, today is about celebrating those who have or are serving. It is about the living, while Memorial Day is about those were killed in action or who have subsequently passed on. Though America being Mericuh and Americans being Mericuns, there’s a lot of confusion between the two holidays.
That aside, on this the 11th day, at the 11th hour, of the 11th month of 1918 the guns in Europe fell silent and World War I came to an end. I’d like to highlight two more recent military histories that I think are important not just for our understanding of World War I, but for where we are now because while history may not repeat, it rhymes.
The first is Christopher Clark’s history of 1914 entitled The Sleepwalkers. Clark’s primary thesis is that with the exception of the extremists, none of the key leaders or actors in 1914 wanted war. They all thought they were communicating clearly in words and deeds and that what they were communicating was being received and understood clearly and as intended. Because what they were communicating was not clear, nor being received and understood as intended, they sleep walked into what we know as World War I. His secondary thesis is that no women were involved, just a bunch of men working within their states’ and societies’ traditional understandings of masculinity and militarism. I think this is a good shorthand for what we’ve been watching and dealing with in the Middle East for the past year. And that includes the secondary thesis. You’ll notice that there is not a single female diplomat or decision-maker involved in the Israel-Hamas or Israel-Lebanon negotiations. Nor the attempts to cut a deal with the Saudis.
The second is Gerwarth’s The Vanquished. Gerwarth’s work is a revisionist history of the ending of World War I, the interwar period, and the start of World War II. His central thesis is that both world wars are simply the two interstate and large scale combat operations (LSCO) phases of the same conflict. Between them was an almost twenty-year period of low intensity conflict between non-state actors and between some of these non-state actors and the states and societies that they were part of. Or, in some cases, apart from.
We are at a current set of inflection points that are akin to what both Clark and Gerwarth have written about.
To adapt COL McRae’s final verse:
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though sunflowers grow
In Ukraine’s fields.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Further Our Missiles and Drones Can Hit, the Less Real Combat Capability Russia Will Have – Address by the President
11 November 2024 – 19:42
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Briefly about today. In the morning, there was a detailed report from Сommander-in-Сhief Syrskyi. The frontline – first of all, the Kurakhove and other directions in the Donetsk region. A thorough report on the Kursk operation. There, our men are holding back a fairly large grouping of Russian troops – 50,000 of the occupier’s army personnel, who, due to the Kursk operation, cannot be deployed to other Russian offensive directions on our territory. We greatly appreciate the bravery of all our warriors, every unit involved in these battles. I also want to commend all our forces targeting Russian bases, logistics, and rear positions. Our forces’ strikes on Russian arsenals have reduced the amount of artillery used by the occupier, and this is noticeable at the front. That is why we need decisions from our partners – America, Britain, Germany – on long-range capabilities. This is vital. The further our missiles and drones can hit, the less real combat capability Russia will have.
I held a meeting of the Staff today. Several issues were addressed, with the primary focus on protecting our skies. There are good results in bolstering air defense, and we will continue to build on this experience. We are preparing further organizational and technical enhancements to the mobile firing groups and drone operations. This is a clear priority.
Today, I had a meeting with Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, to discuss our relations with the EU and our cooperation. A very important update – by the end of the year, our European partners are expected to fully implement the initiative to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells. I also met with the Defense Minister of Estonia today. Recently, a Russian Shahed drone strike on Kyiv damaged the building housing the residence of the Estonian Ambassador to Ukraine. This is yet another proof that we need to significantly strengthen not only our defense against Russian terror, but also our pressure on Russia to limit its military production. Every Shahed drone and missile Russia uses consists fundamentally of components supplied through sanctions loopholes. And in the EU’s upcoming sanctions package, it is crucial to target sanctions circumvention schemes in particular. Anyone who continues such trade with Russia must clearly understand the consequences. Peace through strength is also achieved through the strength of sanctions. And I just spoke with Polish President Andrzej Duda. I congratulated Andrzej and the Polish people on Independence Day. Ukraine is grateful for all the support Poland has given – from the earliest days of the full-scale war until now. Independence, for both Ukraine and Poland, is a strength that empowers both our nations and can only be fully effective through our cooperation and mutual support. Poland, thank you, and congratulations! Thank you to everyone who helps Ukraine! Glory to our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
This is Olena, her body was found today after russia collapsed her home in Kryvyi Rih with a missile, her three young children are still buried.
EU confirms no decisions made on sending troops to Ukraine
This follows media reports on Trump’s potential plan to freeze the Russo-Ukrainian war by creating a buffer zone, deploying EU and UK forces to separate Russian and Ukrainian troops.
The European Union has not made any decisions regarding sending military personnel to Ukraine under any mandate, EU spokesperson Peter Stano stated on 11 November during a Brussels briefing, Ukrinform reports.
The Telegraph reported that US President-elect Donald Trump may call on European and British troops to establish a buffer zone between Kyiv and Moscow’s forces as part of a plan to freeze the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. This proposal is one of several options Trump is considering; before his election, he indicated he would begin peace talks prior to taking office in January.
The statement came in response to Ukrinform’s questions about reported communications between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as proposals about deploying European troops along the line of contact between Ukrainian and Russian forces in case of a conflict freeze.
“At this stage, there is no such decision by the European Union that would allow the EU to send its soldiers to Ukraine in any capacity and under any mandate,” Stano said.
He explained that current EU missions include a military training operation that is mandated to provide training outside Ukraine’s territory.
“Discussions are ongoing between member states about whether we could advance this activity or extend this mission’s mandate to Ukraine as well. But at this time, we don’t have anything unanimously agreed upon between member states,” the spokesperson added.
Stano noted it would be inappropriate for the EU to comment on media reports about a possible phone conversation between other countries’ leaders, especially given that Moscow had denied any phone call between Putin and Trump took place.
Earlier the same day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied media reports about a recent phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President-elect President Donald Trump, which had appeared alongside Trump’s possible plans for war resolution in Ukraine through freezing the conflict.
Let’s leave aside whether the actual details of the President-elect’s proposal to end Ukraine’s war of self defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, if the proposal ever becomes more than the concept of a plan, make sense, if they’d be acceptable to the Ukrainians, if Putin would even go for them, the real problem is it requires the EU to provide a peacekeeping force to monitor a demilitarized zone along a line of conflict that is so long that all the EU member states combined do NOT have enough forces to do it. Even if the EU was willing to do it, it’s a non-starter
More from the EU:
🇪🇺 EU chief diplomat on the consequences of Trump’s victory and European guarantees for Ukraine
The world is not just changing – it has changed. And our societies are changing.
The Trump election in the US shows that there are internal and external dynamics which make people have different relationships with politics – even with truth. There are deep transformations in the world, in geopolitical balances and inside democratic societies.
For Europe, this is another awakening moment. If we want to influence the world, we need to be more united, we need to build a stronger Europe.
And I hope that we Europeans will be able to do that. At least, that’s what the leaders of the EU agreed on a couple of days ago in Budapest.
But then comes the fact that this new reality affects Ukraine, the Middle East, and China – the three poles of the geopolitical tensions today. Things will certainly be different.
But we don’t know what the US policy will be in respect to Ukraine.
But I know that the European Council has just reaffirmed the commitment of the European Union to support Ukraine, and I’m here to pass on this message.
We have been supporting Ukraine and we will continue supporting Ukraine. Not because we are very friendly and we are very generous – but because it is in our interest! The security of Ukraine is part of our security!
If Ukraine falls, our security will be at stake.
And this has to be explained to the European people.
We are at more than 980,000. So very soon, we will have provided 1 million rounds.
All in all, our overall supplies to Ukraine will be more than 1.5 million by the end of the year.
And Ukraine’s membership in the EU is the strongest security commitment or security guarantee that we can offer to Ukraine.
The EU is not a military alliance, like NATO is. So not being a military alliance doesn’t mean that we don’t provide each other security guarantees.
We have been showing solidarity with Ukraine even without you being a member of the European Union. And there would have been much more if you were a member.
[€]122 billion [US$131 billion] of overall European assistance to Ukraine. 122 billion!
This would not have been possible without unanimity, and Hungary has been part of it.
But I want to say that in the last report about the enlargement process that the Commission approved some weeks ago, Ukraine was considered to be doing very well, much better than some other states who have been preparing for membership for many more years. In the last report, Ukraine is very well rated.
And I really admire what you do.
Let me focus on the defenсe industry – I just visited a drone factory that grew from nothing. Ukrainian innovation capacity and production capacity is astonishing! So I think that Ukrainian people deserve to keep their sovereignty and independence. And you deserve to be a member of the European Union club.
Norway:
🇳🇴 👏 Norwegian opposition calls for aid for Ukraine to be tripled by 2025
Norway’s opposition Conservative Party is proposing to triple aid to Ukraine in 2025 from NOK 15 billion to NOK 45 billion (approx. US$1.36 billion to US$4.07 billion) to strengthen Kyiv’s defence capabilities in the current challenging period of war.
Source: Conservative Party leaders in an interview with Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten, as reported by European Pravda
Details: Erna Solberg, leader of Norway’s Conservative Party and the country’s former Prime Minister, argues that increasing aid to Kyiv is the only option “if we are to do what is historically right in the complex situation Ukraine faces now”.
The conservatives want to present their proposal in an alternative draft budget to be submitted to parliament in a few weeks. It envisages allocating NOK 45 billion, or 40% of Norway’s defence budget for 2025, to help Ukraine.
To prevent pressure on the Norwegian economy, the opposition proposes to invest these funds abroad, with the majority of the additional funding going to support Ukraine’s defence industry.
Other proposals include supporting Ukraine’s energy sector and building military infrastructure, particularly shelters to protect Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets from Russian strikes.
Background:
Last year, Norway approved the NOK 75 billion Nansen programme (approx. US$6.7 billion), which ensures long-term support for Ukraine through to 2027, i.e. providing NOK 15 billion (around US$1.36 billion) annually.
However, this year, the country’s authorities proposed increasing funding for the programme to NOK 135 billion [approx. US$12.2 billion] and extending it for another three years until 2030.
Estonia:
Estonia announces new military aid package for Ukraine #Ukraine
Estonia’s Defense Minister, Hanno Pevkur, visited Kyiv on Nov. 11, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and announced a new aid package for Ukraine, Pevkur said on X.
During the visit, Pevkur signed a new military aid package, providing clothing and small arms, reaffirming Estonia’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense by allocating 0.25% of its GDP to military support.
Zelensky thanked Estonia for its leadership and emphasized effective cooperation to meet Ukraine’s defense needs and equip new brigades.
They discussed plans to finance the production of long-range drones in Ukraine and Estonia’s support for Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO.
The leaders also reviewed progress on a broader victory plan for Ukraine.
Estonia has been among Kyiv’s staunchest supporters since the start of the full-scale invasion began, offering humanitarian, developmental, and military assistance.
Estonia and Ukraine signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on June 26. The deal stipulates that Estonia will supply Ukraine with defense aid worth more than 100 million euros ($107 million).
Germany:
🇩🇪👀 If I become chancellor of Germany, I will give Putin an ultimatum regarding Ukraine, — Friedrich Merz
🚀 If this is not done within 24 hours, he is ready to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles and give permission to strike the territory of Russia.
🇵🇱🇺🇦 President Duda: “Ukraine must protect itself from Russian imperialism and become part of the free world. Today, this imperialism is trying to destroy our neighbor, which we support with all our might and which, we deeply believe, will also be a part of the free world together with us.”
EuroMaidan Press brings us a brief video run down of the Russian butcher’s bill from today’s attacks:
In a series of attacks on 11 November, Russian forces targeted multiple Ukrainian cities, including Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, and Nikopol, killing 9 people, injuring dozens and damaging civilian infrastructure.
More from The Kyiv Independent on the Russian strike on civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih:
Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.
A high-rise residential building in Kryvyi Rih was hit by a Russian missile on Nov. 11, injuring at least 14 people including two children, local authorities said.
The missile hit the building between the first and fifth floor, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhiy Lysak reported, adding there may still be a woman and three children under the rubble.
A 10-year-old girl, and an 11-year-old boy are among the injured.
“Russia seeks only to continue the war, and each of its strikes refutes any statements from Russia about diplomacy,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media.
“Ukraine needs weapons to defend against Russian terror and stronger support from the world to make diplomacy real and strong.”
Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Zelensky, remains a frequent target of Russia’s missile attacks.
Kurakhove:
💪 The crew of the Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank from a close range fires at Russian armored vehicles that tried to storm the positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Russian forces damaged the dam holding the Kurakhove Reservoir in Donetsk Oblast: A high-rise residential building in Kryvyi Rih was hit by a Russian missile; and more.
Russian forces damaged the dam holding the Kurakhove Reservoir in Donetsk Oblast on Nov. 11, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
Filashkin’s statement came after multiple reports of the dam being attacked near the village of Stari Terny, some 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the embattled town of Kurakhove.
The Kurakhove Reservoir is located on the Vovcha River, with its source near the village of Progress.
“This attack potentially threatens residents of settlements on the Vovcha River, both in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts,” Filashkin said.
It’s not the first time a critical dam was hit during the full-scale war.
Russia destroyed the occupied Kakhovka dam in Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast in June 2023, unleashing massive floods and an environmental and humanitarian disaster across southern Ukraine.
Russian forces also damaged the dams and the adjacent hydroelectric power plants in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia during mass aerial attacks against energy infrastructure.
According to the governor, the water level in the river within near Velyka Novosilka rose by 1.2 meters as of 4 p.m. local time. No homes have been flooded, he added.
Russian pro-war Telegram channels blame Ukraine for destroying the dam. The Ukrainian military has not commented on these claims.
Roman Padun, head of the Kurakhove city military administration, told Suspilne that authorities cannot check the scale of damage to the dam and inspect it due to constant attacks.
Russia is carrying out intense attacks in multiple sections of the eastern front, with attempts to break through Ukraine’s defenses in Donetsk Oblast toward the towns of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk.
There is a threat of Kurakhove being encircled, Nazar Voitenkov, an acting spokesperson for Ukraine’s 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Nov. 5.
🚨 ‼️ DeepState reports difficult situation around Kurakhove, which could become catastrophic
Quote: “The enemy continues to carry out their large-scale strategy to encircle the city from the flanks. As previously stated, the Russians, mounting greater pressure on new directions, are attempting to reach the logistical paths of the Defence Forces, and this process is just gaining momentum. The Muscovites are currently attacking Ukrainian military positions from the north, south, and east.
Their goal is to bypass the city from the flanks and control the N15 Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk route, which is crucial for hampering any movement.
The movement from the south is conducted on the Yasna Poliana-Maksymivka-Trudove route, where despite persistent pressure and losses, the Russians are making progress. About 10 kilometres remain between the [Ukrainian] defences and the highway, and the fortifications in this area left much to be desired. From the north, the Russians concentrated their efforts on the settlement of Sontsivka, making many attempts to infiltrate the village, but the Defence Forces were able to kill the infantry.”
Details: Analysts also reported that the Russians “push through to the eastern outskirts of the city [of Kurakhove] and also try to build up [forces] and gain a foothold.”
At the same time, an unfavourable situation develops in the vicinity of the settlements of Antonivka, Katerynivka and Yelyzavetivka.
“We must reiterate that ‘lies will ruin us all,’ yet even in attracting greater resources to the vicinity of Kurakhove, concerns remain about the reasoning behind the deployment. Taking into account the enemy’s activity, it is only a matter of time before Kurakhove is lost. And if we still do not take control of the problem with the flanks, it will quickly turn into another catastrophe,” analysts write.
Background:
Earlier on Monday, the press officer of the 46th Separate Airborne Brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine working in the city and the source of Ukrainska Pravda on the Kurakhove front reported that the Russian army came close to Kurakhove and even making occasional incursions with military equipment.
However, the city is entirely under the control of Ukraine’s defence forces, specifically the 46th Separate Airborne Brigade.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
‼️ Russian troops may launch assaults on Zaporizhzhia front “any day now” – Ukrainian forces
Russian forces may soon launch ground assaults in the south of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Source: Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Defence Forces of Ukraine’s South, in a comment to Sky News
Details: Voloshyn notes that Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian troops in the area. However, it remains unclear whether this will result in a single large-scale Russian offensive or a series of separate assaults.
Quote: “[The assaults] could begin in the near future, we’re not even talking about weeks, we’re expecting it to happen any day.”
Mykolaiv:
Five civilians killed in Mykolaiv as russian drones strike residential neighborhoods, targeting an apartment block and private houses under the cover of night.
❗️In the Kharkiv region, a forced evacuation of the entire adult population from 10 settlements of the Borova community has been announced, including from the village of Borova, – OVA
Putin’s claim at last week’s Valdai Forum that Russian forces had “trapped” Ukrainian troops near Kupyansk were false — but Ukraine is still steadily losing ground. See our updated combat map for the latest developments:
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
In his speech at the Valdai Discussion Forum last Thursday, Vladimir Putin said that Russian forces had “trapped” two groupings of Ukrainian forces near the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region: one consisting of 10,000 troops and the other of 5,000. In reality, Ukraine’s forces still hold two bridgeheads on the Oskil River, which splits the crucial transport hub of Kupyansk in two. (It is true, however, that Ukraine’s units on the river’s eastern bank have been under significant pressure from some time.) This wasn’t the only false claim Putin has made about Russia’s battlefield successes in recent weeks: in late October, he said that 2,000 Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region were surrounded. However, the Russian military has been unable to sever the logistics lines supplying this small Ukrainian unit, which is taking cover in the Olgovskaya Grove, a forest west of Sudzha. Ukrainian troops have also repeatedly managed to break out of near-encirclements in central and southern Donbas. Right now, Ukraine’s command needs to make an evacuation plan for Kurakhove, the region’s key southern transport hub, which is also at risk of encirclement.
The Kursk cross-border offensive:
Commander Syrskyi reports that Ukrainian troops’ resilience in Kurshchyna prevents Russian assault forces from advancing on Pokrovske, Kurakhove, or Toretsk.
Despite intense attacks from Russian forces reinforced by North Korean mercenaries, Ukrainian forces have held all positions for three days.
An unsuccesful attempt by Russian forces to cross the Psel river in the Kursk region. After being noticed, they were immediately targetted by the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade.
Ukrainian Ombudsman Lubinets reported that Russian troops allegedly executed at least two unarmed Ukrainian POWs in the Kursk region, calling it another war crime and a violation of the Geneva Convention. He has reached out to the UN and Red Cross, urging the international community to take action.
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29Comments
1.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to rack out. My staycation, which turned out to not be very restful or relaxing, has come to an end and I have to be back up at 0 Dark 0 tomorrow.
Catch everyone on the flip,
But I do have a question: anyone have a recommendation for a good, lumbar supporting back pillow for sitting up on the bed. You know the ones sort of shaped like a chair back. Mine is basically worn out and I want to get something that is going to actually provide support and be comfortable.
Can’t help with the lumbar support, but as you mentioned Veterans Day, let me take this opportunity to salute and thank all you military Jackals who served our Nation.
Rep. Mike Waltz has been tapped to be Trump’s NSA. Waltz has been vocal that the Ukraine has been a dangerous distraction from the much more important Cold War w/ the PRC, & needs to end ASAP. He has also been vocal that Americans have to be indoctrinated into thinking that Cold War w/ the PRC is a necessary titanic struggle for the fate of the USA.
Going to be fun times.
Of course, as I have written before, sometimes I do wonder how sincere of the China-Hawkery in Trump’s circle really is, whether it is to shift attention from cozying up to Putin, or to help advance their reactionary authoritarian agenda home & abroad, or the two work in sync.
Re Gerwarth’s thesis in ‘The Vanquished’. I seem to remember something similar being written about in the early 2000s, with the idea of ‘the short 20th century’, which ran from 1914 to 1989 (the fall of the Berlin Wall).
@Adam L Silverman: While I think it is certain the European leaders in Aug. 1914 weren’t intending to wage an apocalyptic struggle that would see the Continent in ruins & many of their own regimes collapse, there were strong elements everywhere spoiling for a fight, to “demonstrate resolve” & “reestablish deterrence”. (Sound familiar.) Furthermore, for decades they had pursued policies of hostile alliances, exclusive spheres of influence, & arms racing, oblivious to the risks, that all but made war inevitable. (Also sound familiar.) If not in Aug. 1914, then some other time w/ some other trigger. I think that describe the dynamic in the ME just as well. I think the only mitigating factor that I can see, especially now that Trump will soon be in the WH, is that the Iran-GCC détente appears to be holding, for now.
Similar dynamic is also dangerously on the rise in the “Indo-Pacific”. Fortunately, while there is arms racing & increased saber rattling, no country in the region appears eager to go kinetic. Unfortunately, Trump (or more specifically the FP radicals to be in his Administration) may provide the spark, & throw gasoline on top.
Any chance that when using BlueSky embeds, you can stick the URL, below the embed, so that if they come up for some of us as “rate limited”. we can go to the source?
@YY_Sima Qian: Between Sinophobia in the US, and the PRC obsession with getting back every square millimeter of Qing territory back, plus the absolute demonization of Japan in Chinese media, a huge conflict becoming a third world War seems, if not inevitable, at least somewhat likely.
@Mike in DC: IMHO the intra-Asian rivalries are all manageable. There is real apprehension, real arms racing, but also a lot of performative heat. The PRC has decided to focus its assertive/coercive activities toward Taiwan and the Philippines, & dialing down disputes everywhere else. It has established a new modus vivendi w/ Indian on the disputed border in the western Himalayas, a modus operandi at the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands vis-a-vis Japan (where both would patrol the area w/ Coast Guard vessels, prevent each other’s civilian boats from landing, & lodge protests at each other for doing so), a new agreement w/ Indonesia to shelf their dispute in the South China Sea, established an understanding w/ Malaysia to their dispute in the SCS on the back burner, decided to turn a blind eye to the massive land reclamation/island building that Vietnam is doing w/ its occupied features in the Spratly Islands. Even w/ the Philippines, the PRC managed to reach a still secret agreement to disengage from the year+ stand off at the 2nd Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys, though confrontations still occur in other disputed features. I am sure much of this is preparing for an escalation of tensions w/ the U.S. under Trump.
Concerning bluesky embeds, I can confirm that when I switch to Firefox from Safari the embeds disappear and I get the rate limited message on a big blank space. (On the same device.)
So for now it sounds like people should just use Chrome or Safari – or perhaps anything other than Firefox – if they want to see the bluesky embeds.
And eventually (soon, I suppose) either bluesky or Firefox will address whatever they have gotten wrong.
@sab: The cast of characters surrounding Trump are equal warmongers to the Cheneys. I take no solace, & I do not believe Harris should have spend bandwidth campaigning w/ Liz Cheney to try to win the small handful of Never Trumpets down the stretch.
Marco Rubio for SecState… Hawkish on both the PRC & Iran, but I suspect he is a cynical charlatan playing at being a hawk because that is how you establish credibility as a “serious” on FP these days, especially on the Repub side.
I think that describe the dynamic in the ME just as well.
Do you think if Netanyahu did not expect access to unlimited U.S. weapons—he would shift his tactics toward the Palestinians? Adopt a less bellicose strategy? Negotiate?
@way2blue: Dead thread, but IMHO no to Hamas in Gaza (Bibi will wage his war of vengeance, though perhaps w/ less violence as the IDF would start to run short of munitions), yes to the Hezbollah in Lebanon & Iran (Bibi would not be able to wage wars on 3 fronts w/o unconditional US support, & w/ the US providing back up).
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to rack out. My staycation, which turned out to not be very restful or relaxing, has come to an end and I have to be back up at 0 Dark 0 tomorrow.
Catch everyone on the flip,
But I do have a question: anyone have a recommendation for a good, lumbar supporting back pillow for sitting up on the bed. You know the ones sort of shaped like a chair back. Mine is basically worn out and I want to get something that is going to actually provide support and be comfortable.
Thanks in advance.
Gin & Tonic
FYI, still getting “Your request has been rate limited” on all the BlueSky embeds in Firefox/Windows.
Jackie
Can’t help with the lumbar support, but as you mentioned Veterans Day, let me take this opportunity to salute and thank all you military Jackals who served our Nation.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I can’t do anything about it. This appears to be a Bluesky versus browsers issue. This is a work in progress, so please bear with me.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman:
I understand, I’m just giving you one data point.
VeniceRiley
I went to the remembrance day services near home. Bagpipes and a small USAF contingent!
Lots of people came out. England remembers.
Stood near the memorial for the 486th bombardment group. Reggie greeting all his adoring public.
YY_Sima Qian
Rep. Mike Waltz has been tapped to be Trump’s NSA. Waltz has been vocal that the Ukraine has been a dangerous distraction from the much more important Cold War w/ the PRC, & needs to end ASAP. He has also been vocal that Americans have to be indoctrinated into thinking that Cold War w/ the PRC is a necessary titanic struggle for the fate of the USA.
Going to be fun times.
Of course, as I have written before, sometimes I do wonder how sincere of the China-Hawkery in Trump’s circle really is, whether it is to shift attention from cozying up to Putin, or to help advance their reactionary authoritarian agenda home & abroad, or the two work in sync.
Roberto el oso
Re Gerwarth’s thesis in ‘The Vanquished’. I seem to remember something similar being written about in the early 2000s, with the idea of ‘the short 20th century’, which ran from 1914 to 1989 (the fall of the Berlin Wall).
Lapassionara
Thank you, Adam. Not just for this post, but for all you do.
Weftage
@Adam L Silverman: Data point: I get the rate limited notice on Firefox 132, but all the pictures show for me on Chrome 130.
Bill Arnold
Is there any reporting that that Shahed hit on a Belgorod apartment building was with a thermobaric warhead?
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: While I think it is certain the European leaders in Aug. 1914 weren’t intending to wage an apocalyptic struggle that would see the Continent in ruins & many of their own regimes collapse, there were strong elements everywhere spoiling for a fight, to “demonstrate resolve” & “reestablish deterrence”. (Sound familiar.) Furthermore, for decades they had pursued policies of hostile alliances, exclusive spheres of influence, & arms racing, oblivious to the risks, that all but made war inevitable. (Also sound familiar.) If not in Aug. 1914, then some other time w/ some other trigger. I think that describe the dynamic in the ME just as well. I think the only mitigating factor that I can see, especially now that Trump will soon be in the WH, is that the Iran-GCC détente appears to be holding, for now.
Similar dynamic is also dangerously on the rise in the “Indo-Pacific”. Fortunately, while there is arms racing & increased saber rattling, no country in the region appears eager to go kinetic. Unfortunately, Trump (or more specifically the FP radicals to be in his Administration) may provide the spark, & throw gasoline on top.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
Vid of the event does not support a Thermobaric warhead.
https://ukrainetoday.org/shahed-136-hit-house-in-russia/
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Any chance that when using BlueSky embeds, you can stick the URL, below the embed, so that if they come up for some of us as “rate limited”. we can go to the source?
Mike in DC
@YY_Sima Qian: Between Sinophobia in the US, and the PRC obsession with getting back every square millimeter of Qing territory back, plus the absolute demonization of Japan in Chinese media, a huge conflict becoming a third world War seems, if not inevitable, at least somewhat likely.
frosty
All the BlueSky embeds worked perfectly tonight. I don’t think I made any changes to my computer. So, good news. Sleep well!
ETA: Windows / Firefox
Aziz, light!
@Adam L Silverman: It’s not chair shaped, but my sitting up pillow is a firm memory foam Tempur-Pedic , which provides very good support.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
bluefoot
@Aziz, light!: I have one of those too and it does a pretty good job.
YY_Sima Qian
@Mike in DC: IMHO the intra-Asian rivalries are all manageable. There is real apprehension, real arms racing, but also a lot of performative heat. The PRC has decided to focus its assertive/coercive activities toward Taiwan and the Philippines, & dialing down disputes everywhere else. It has established a new modus vivendi w/ Indian on the disputed border in the western Himalayas, a modus operandi at the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands vis-a-vis Japan (where both would patrol the area w/ Coast Guard vessels, prevent each other’s civilian boats from landing, & lodge protests at each other for doing so), a new agreement w/ Indonesia to shelf their dispute in the South China Sea, established an understanding w/ Malaysia to their dispute in the SCS on the back burner, decided to turn a blind eye to the massive land reclamation/island building that Vietnam is doing w/ its occupied features in the Spratly Islands. Even w/ the Philippines, the PRC managed to reach a still secret agreement to disengage from the year+ stand off at the 2nd Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys, though confrontations still occur in other disputed features. I am sure much of this is preparing for an escalation of tensions w/ the U.S. under Trump.
glc
Concerning bluesky embeds, I can confirm that when I switch to Firefox from Safari the embeds disappear and I get the rate limited message on a big blank space. (On the same device.)
So for now it sounds like people should just use Chrome or Safari – or perhaps anything other than Firefox – if they want to see the bluesky embeds.
And eventually (soon, I suppose) either bluesky or Firefox will address whatever they have gotten wrong.
Jay
@glc:
I use Chrome, I get about half the embeds.
Doug
If anyone wants to read more about The Vanquished, I can offer this:
https://www.thefrumiousconsortium.net/2016/10/05/the-vanquished-by-robert-gerwarth/
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: Well I guess a small good thing is that the warmongery Cheneys have completely broken with the Republican/MAGA party.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: The cast of characters surrounding Trump are equal warmongers to the Cheneys. I take no solace, & I do not believe Harris should have spend bandwidth campaigning w/ Liz Cheney to try to win the small handful of Never Trumpets down the stretch.
YY_Sima Qian
Marco Rubio for SecState… Hawkish on both the PRC & Iran, but I suspect he is a cynical charlatan playing at being a hawk because that is how you establish credibility as a “serious” on FP these days, especially on the Repub side.
way2blue
@YY_Sima Qian:
Do you think if Netanyahu did not expect access to unlimited U.S. weapons—he would shift his tactics toward the Palestinians? Adopt a less bellicose strategy? Negotiate?
YY_Sima Qian
@way2blue: Dead thread, but IMHO no to Hamas in Gaza (Bibi will wage his war of vengeance, though perhaps w/ less violence as the IDF would start to run short of munitions), yes to the Hezbollah in Lebanon & Iran (Bibi would not be able to wage wars on 3 fronts w/o unconditional US support, & w/ the US providing back up).