In comments yesterday, Ohio Mom raised a good question:
We were really looking forward to that $2,000 cap on drug purchases for people on Medicare. And idea David how that might shake out?
We had vague plans to replace the washer and dryer. Well, we know they have to be replaced, we were putting off thinking about the sequence of basement renovations. But with the threat of tariffs, time to get started comparison shopping.
She brings up a really important distinction.
Some things that could change need legislation. The $2000 Medicare Part D out of pocket limit is a creature of legislation. That could change if there are 218 votes in the House, 51 in the Senate and 1 signature in the White House. That will take time. It is not a January 21st problem.
There are many things in the health space that are legislative problems. A lot of them (most particularly Medicaid) will likely be sacrificed at the altar of upper income tax cuts but all of that needs legislation Nand that will give pressure points in a House with a 4 to 6 seat majority where the functional majority will be less as Trump raids safe GOP seats for staffing.
Tariffs are an executive action problem. These are things that can change on the stroke of a sharpie. The price structure of the US economy could be radically different on the morning of January 21st relative to the morning of January 20th.
Keep this distinction in mind — what needs Congress? What needs a Sharpie?
On The Road – swiftfox – Tanzania Safari Part 3 Ngorogoro Crater
Chris Johnson
What’s happening is wild to see. In theory it’s within the parameters of what you’re talking about, and that’s the only way to keep ALL the ‘soft’ Trump voters on side. Things have to go in the direction they’ve been conditioned to expect, and the country has to prosper, and everything has to remain basically the same but better.
In PRACTICE, what I see is scrambling in the ‘sharpie’ direction, a smash-and-grab. Except it’s really not about making Americans of any stripe wealthy. What I’m seeing is attempts to follow through on the worst of what Trump represents, if possible by freaking people out so bad everything blows up, and rather than the cruelty being the point (that represents a smaller group who aren’t fun to be around, and they’re the secret police now), the aftermath is the point.
Russia has formally acknowledged they gave Trump his win and stated he owes them. Publically. It is bait, and it’s the simple truth (no tricky hacking, simply Musk-assisted, NYT-assisted manipulation over years).
That means Russia runs us, and their only purpose is vengeance: America is to be reduced to a state lower than them. That takes some doing! It also requires that all Americans abandon everything else they’re doing, everything productive, and fall to fighting each other in blind rage.
I’m sorry, I’m washing my hair that day. I’m carrying some cast-off clothes to the church to clothe the underprivileged. How’s the fifth of never work for ya, Russia? How about I turn to fighting my Trump-voting friends on the 357th of Noturday?
hrprogressive
Yeah I think the bigger worry is that if these people (from the Convicted Felon on down) just decide “To hell with laws and legislation, we’re just going to do what we want by fiat and dare anyone to stop us”.
In such a scenario, everything becomes a sharpie.
So in theory, things that aren’t “Jan 21st Problems” could become such problems.
Of course, if that scenario actually plays out, we’ll all be worried about lot more than just things like Medicare out of pocket caps or whether or not to buy an appliance.
Hopefully, you are right about the relative timing of these problems.
Suzanne
@Chris Johnson:
Agree with you.
I get the feeling that a lot of the Trumpies feel purposeless and directionless, and essentially want a big, defining struggle. But, like…. I’m not here for that.
Watched an interesting TikTok video by a white MAGA guy talking about how he lies about his politics to get with liberal women. He says liberal women are hotter and nag less than conservative women. I LOLed. Dude may now be single forever.
Barry
IMHO, what will happen is that many, if not most things which theoretically require legislation could be shut down simply by blocking things.
Peale
Yeah. Was at the grocery store yesterday and looked at items that I might want to buy for Christmas that are likely to go up in price. Light bulbs, pens, printer toner. Oh and batteries. So I don’t know how well they store, but if you have medical device that requires a specialized battery, you might want to ask for that as a stocking stuffer.
TBone
This was eye-opening about Trump and Congress (he has already told them to go into Recess on Day One):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/maddow-trump-already-consolidating-power-despite-almost-guaranteed-obedience-from-gop-in-congress/vi-AA1tVgMs
TBone
@TBone: he wants to avoid ANY voting by the Senate so he can just proceed to make recess appointments, unilaterally.
Unitary Executive.
Baud
@TBone:
I believe they’ll have to jettison the filibuster to do it.
TBone
@Baud: to go into recess “just following orders” mode?
He is already in the “bypassing Congress” stance and he’s still just “-elect.” (I will never refer to him in his soon to be official capacity, I just can’t.)
Ohio Mom
Would the nursing home industry go along with axing Medicaid? AARP would put up a fight too.
As I’ve said too many times already, Medicaid and its Waivers are essential to the disability community. Medicaid Waivers pay for everything from group home staffing, transportation, day programs, etc., and oh yeah, health coverage. Which for disabled people with complex medical needs is what is keeping them alive.
Of course, the lobbyists for the national disability community don’t have much leverage other than evoking pity and calls to do the right thing.
Baud
@TBone:
Yes. I think they have to vote on recess so Dems can filibuster it. But I haven’t researched the point.
BritinChicago
The fact that tariffs are a matter for executive action rather than legislation means that we may see very soon after Inauguration Day how much of the bluster about them is real. (If I had to bet I’d bet no “not much”, but I’m not at all confident about that.) It may also mean that the administration becomes quite unpopular quite soon.
TBone
@Baud: good to know, I will look it up!
Baud
@Ohio Mom:
Republicans don’t need anyone’s consent.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
If it’s something Trump wants, they’ll kill the filibuster to make it happen. Or carve out a ‘just for this one kind of thing’ exception each time. From their POV, the main purpose of the filibuster is to strangle the Dems with it if they ever regain control of Congress.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Sure. It’s their choice.
WereBear
Actually, if we deported the MAGAs to their country of genetic origin, and only let in new immigrants who had to study civics like naturalized citizens…
WereBear
@Ohio Mom: The nursing home industry will be bribed with another lucrative racket. Probably loot Medicare next, of course.
The AARP is a glossy marketing organization, roping in all the seniors for direct mail solicitations.
No, we’ll have to charge those Rascals and head for Washington ourselves.
The Million Gray Hairs march.
JMG
@lowtechcyclist: Maybe Senate Republicans will kill the filibuster but maybe not. It serves to protect the majority as well as the minority, because it allows them to vote for unpopular legislation without the consequence of having it go into law.
TBone
@Baud: you are, as usual, correct – gah, concurrent resolution required and if we lose the House…
My eyes glazed over a bit while reading up…starting on page 11, then in detail on page 15. This is a .PDF so I don’t recommend clicking unless you don’t have to download:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42977
Baud
@TBone:
They’ll probably get the house. The question is whether a concurrent resolution can be filibustered. I think it can because I think the Republicans did this with Obama.
TBone
@Baud: 👍
I guess I know just about as much of The Rules as Donold does. I wasn’t interested in looking into it much before now.
Seems like Calvinball.
Central Planning
My only hope (and I’m somewhat confident in this) is that the Johnson-led house continues to be disfunctional even with Groper Cleveland (I love that) in the whitehouse.
WereBear
@Central Planning: He only adds dysfunction.
Maybe we should add something to all the recreational drugs in the White House pharmacy before we go. That seems to be the first place they would head to.
TBone
@WereBear: 😆👍
TBone
I’ma start calling them Quagmire.
Giggity.
sixthdoctor
@Central Planning: I definitely think there are chaos and choke points that the non-Trump coalition can exploit that could help mitigate the damage around the margins. All of the worst people are in charge but a lot of them have different priorities so we might have a Mr. Burns’s diseases situation where the conflict could slow down damage in instances.
Unfortunately it could only mean the difference between existentially terrible and very, very bad.
Suzanne
@Ohio Mom: Mr. Suzanne and I were discussing this yesterday. He is a special educator. Disability is one of those things that affects a lot of GOP people and their families. 20% of students have an IEP. Almost everyone has a relative who needs or needed long-term care.
I don’t know if IGMFY, sparrows and curtain rods, etc. is powerful enough that people are going to give that up.
More likely they find some way to convince themselves that TFG saved Medicaid and Special Education!
Central Planning
@sixthdoctor:
I agree. I don’t think that this will make anything better, just less horrible (but still horrible)
Kristine
Thinking about Rachel’s point that the Senate would confirm his appointments anyway so why should they shut themselves down? We know they would roll over in private, but he’s now asking them to make it public and permanent. Senators have egos, too—some can be seen from space. Will they go along with that?
cmorenc
OT, but is Casey making up enough ground in the remaining uncounted Pa vote to have any realistic chance of pulling it out? Or is the race still “uncalled” because technically there are enough outstanding votes for him to still narrowly win, but the % margin among them he’d need is unrealistic to expect?
Mai Naem mobile ¹
I just heard on the hourly news blurb that dog killer Kristi Noem is going to be the DHS secretary. I am thinking TFG is not hiring the best people.
Suzanne
@cmorenc: The second thing.
Kristine
@Mai Naem mobile ¹: Wondering if the overall incompetence can help mitigate the damage. And by “wondering,” I mean “hoping.”
Dammit, some of my tax dollars will go toward their salaries. Another blow upon the bruises.
Mai Naem mobile ¹
@Central Planning: i think Johnson will keep the House people in line because POTUS is a GOPr and probably even easier for him that there are so many MAGat Reps. Your only hope is that the numbers are so close that losing Stefanik or Walsz evens it up for 2-3 months. After that you can hope you’ve got some illnesses, family emergencies or deaths but that can happy to either party. It’s the Senate which can help mitigate some of the damage.
WereBear
@sixthdoctor: My rule is to dodge the existentially terrible, that’s just me.
WereBear
@Mai Naem mobile ¹: I believe the qualifications were, in the old SS, “will you kill your puppy?”
She and the Huckabees are already there.
Mai Naem mobile ¹
@Kristine: I’m hoping that there’s enough electoral self preservation in the ‘moderate’ congress critters that they won’t go along with everything tfg and his minions want. Ofcourse they might end up having to decide between being threatened by MAGats or being given some cushy gig on the wingnut welfare gig.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@JMG:
I’m pretty sure Mitch “The Gravedigger of Democracy” said sometime after the election that the filibuster will remain.
Of course I always believe everything he says. /s
azlib
One point is Trump does not give a crap about policy. He only ran to keep from going to prison. Also, under our Federal system there are many power points who will not want to give up their power. I predict there will be a lot of infighting and back stabbing. Just like his first administration, his second will be unpredictable and chaotic.
Kristine
@azlib: That’s my hope as well. So many of these personalities do not play well with others even when they’re on the same team.
Ohio Mom
@Suzanne: I am hazy on the details but I think I remember that Medicaid is a funding source for public school interventionists like SLPs and OTs. Or maybe that’s just Ohio — not every state provides disabled children with Medicaid Waivers but Ohio does.
Somewhat off topic, Medicaid is a joint Federal-State program. The Feds set the broad parameters, within which each state fashioned their Medicaid Waiver program (services for disabled). Covering adults is mandatory, children are optional.
The Feds match every dollar the State puts in, dollar for dollar. Unless it’s a poor Red (Taker) state, then the Feds put in a $1.50 or more for every dollar the state puts in.
School-age interventions surely save money in the long run but I don’t have those statistics.
Ohio Mom
@Suzanne: And about: “Disability is one of those things that affects a lot of GOP people and their families. 20% of students have an IEP. Almost everyone has a relative who needs or needed long-term care.”
I’ve had this discussion with this Republican parents of IEP kids before, they all believe that “They wouldn’t do that to *our* kids.” Leopards, meet faces.
BritinChicago
@JMG: That’s a good point, but some of us worry that these Republicans will pass the most damaging laws, even if they are very unpopular.
Suzanne
@Ohio Mom:
I think that’s the case in every state. Mr. Suzanne has to do a lot of Medicaid billing paperwork.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Ohio Mom:
One of the guys in my gaming group is a middle-school special ed teacher in Estes Park. I’ve spent the last four years being “regaled” with stories about his job. He doesn’t get paid enough and the school district is already over-burdened (I don’t mean that the way it sounds) in terms of special ed teachers to students with IEPs.
I’ve never asked him about funding, process, etc. Sounds like that’ll be on the chit-chat agenda on Wednesday. If they do get some kind of Federal dollars thru whatever mechanism and that gets cut, based on what he says, that particular district simply won’t have a program any more.
Chris Johnson
@Kristine: That’s fundamental.
How long the regime lasts, depends on how successfully they can get the ‘enemies of the state’ to rise up, and how well they can keep the siloes insulated from each other.
Pretty much at all costs they have to keep each side adamantly refusing to talk, and if possible, believing the other side is subhuman and can’t remotely be reasoned with. Only that will work.
It’s very easy to see the messaging from within our silo (note: not one we chose, but it was constructed for us). We’ve been getting told every last enemy represents everything about the worst of them, even while they avoided even looking at their guy during the campaign. We’re told they worship and love him, yet look at the fucking crowd sizes.
They’re of course being told we’re madmen wanting to murder them all. Lot of effort goes into all this. I think it falters if it’s too hard to keep up that level of silo-age. it’s got to be complicated to orchestrate, though it’s part of human nature, too.
Anonymous At Work
The point of Day 1 recess is to install Cabinet Secretaries without going through Senate confirmation procedures. Last time, the Senate questioned Jefferson [Davis] Sessions III on his Russian contacts, leading to Mueller being run by Rosenstein, not Sessions.
However, Democrats could, should, and have previously filibuster “recesses” to stop this from happening. By 2018, The Convicted Felon’s appointees were dropping like flies and he was having trouble finding self-abasing toadies to replace them who could also survive Senate confirmation and background checks. So, he started double-appointing the already confirmed members.
Now, Senate Republicans can end the filibuster but probably won’t. There’s too much long-term downside for them. Everything they want is largely, or almost exclusively, a majority vote at this time: tax-cuts via budget reconciliation and judicial appointments. It’s the Democrats’ agenda that gets stymied by the super-majority threshold. There are a handful of Democrats that were fearful or protective of their privileges that kept Democrats from undoing the filibuster previously who would be empowered if Republicans did it first.
Finally, let’s not forget that the filibuster largely protects “moderates” and radical centrists from taking difficult votes. False-faced “moderates” like Suzie C from Maine can “support” something, knowing it won’t come to a vote. Senate Republicans will now own everything The Convicted Felon does leading up to 2026 and 2028 elections (where I suspect the primary will devolve to DeSantis vs. Vance, determined by whose supporters can stop vomiting in disgust long enough to vote).
CODA: A reminder that even Executive Action has to be enacted and regulations/SOPs promulgated before anything happens. An Executive Action requiring the expulsion of all non-legal immigrants including asylum seekers and lawful refugees will take a long time to separate out binding treaty obligations, set up a process for review of cases, etc. for those whose status was changed. For everyone else who already was undocumented, the Executive Action is literally meaningless, an excuse to sign a paper and hang it on the wall. So, most Executive Actions will have delays.
Ohio Mom
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: It is a federal law that children with disability receive a “free and appropriate public education.” Parents already sue schools all the time when they think their child is not receiving an appropriate enough education.
That law also mandates that the federal government help fund special ed, though they have never fully funded their promise. You friend is correct in that special ed is underfunded and undersupported even as their responsibilities have steadily increaesed.
Anyway, how this all reconciled — the law requiring spec ed vs the dismantling of the government — remains to be seen. That’s true of just about every federal program and agency.
Anonymous At Work
@Ohio Mom: Undoing the Department of Education isn’t the same as zeroing out Special Education funding. I think there’s enough Republicans either concerned about their districts in 2026 or concerned about the optics that the funding might end up moved to HHS. It won’t be as efficiently administered but it won’t go away. Same with Pell Grants.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
I have a semi-related question. Does anyone think that pricing this holiday season will taken into account future tariffs? As in “no sales this Black Friday, but prices will be higher next year – so buy at retail now because things will be much more expensive later”?
I am looking at a couple semi-discretionary purchases, and watching the discounts just fall off over the last week. I am imagining retailers pricing tariff premiums into 2025 stickers and counting on consumers not to notice.
Wondering whether 2024 will be the last consumer spending binge, or a retail catastrophe own-goal.
artem1s
Wait. What? We were told liberal women were all ugly un-fuckable harpies. With canckles. And shrill voices. Who wouldn’t make me sammiches and force them to like cats.