Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

The lights are all blinking red.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

75% of people clapping liked the show!

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus & H5N1 Updates: November 13, 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus & H5N1 Updates: November 13, 2024

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COVID-19 Coronavirus & H5N1 Updates: November 13, 2024


The post below is the start of an excellent thread, but there’s a catch: You can only read it on BlueSky. And that’s one reason I have yet to fully switch from ‘the hellsite’ to the new, improved walled garden: I certainly can’t blame anyone, especially any woman, for not wanting their posts to attract swarms of bots & trolls. On the other hand, BlueSky’s very convenient ‘block outside embeds’ makes it harder for aggregators (scavengers) like me to share information with people who ‘never click on links’. It’s very much a work in progress…

Thanks to the first Canada acquired H5N1 case, there’s an uptick in “bird flu pandemic imminent” and “omg it’s gone H2H!” posts. Those are not accurate.
However, given the situation in the US, I have some real concerns about this that grow progressively more grave.

— Angie Rasmussen (@angierasmussen.bsky.social) November 11, 2024 at 3:50 AM

***********

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STATNews, “A Q&A with the FDA’s top vaccine regulator amid a fresh wave of disinformation”:

Vaccine fatigue and disinformation abound in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Public health authorities promoting vaccine use do so in an ever more challenging climate.

At a public forum last week, Peter Marks, the top vaccine regulator for the Food and Drug Administration, said the way to counter the movement is by being transparent.

“We have to be steadfast in this. Answer questions, be honest, that will ultimately take the day over the misinformation and disinformation, which is being done for non-health purposes,” he said during a panel discussion on fall vaccinations organized by the group Champions for Vaccine Education, Equity and Progress.

STAT reached out to Marks, the director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, to talk about how vaccines are regulated in this country. He agreed, though the FDA stated in advance that he would not comment on individuals involved in the current political debate or anything they have said…

Broadly speaking, we’re seeing a lot of vaccine skepticism lately. It’s in the news often. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. I don’t know, though, that we actually are seeing a huge drop in vaccination rates. I know there’s been some decline. Certainly for some vaccines, like the Covid vaccines, there’s been a drop-off. Is there more noise than actual reality around this topic?
I think we don’t know the full extent of the adverse effect on vaccination. We won’t know that until we see pockets of kids who haven’t gotten certain vaccines coming down with infectious diseases.

The problem is that it doesn’t take vaccination rates to drop off that much to start getting into problems here, where you lose herd immunity. So, I don’t disagree with you in the statement that it’s not like the sky is falling, but there are clearly pockets of people who have started to perhaps not take all of the appropriate vaccines. And there’s this kind of concept of ‘I’ll take the vaccines that I feel are important rather than the ones that are recommended.’ So I do think there’s some concern there that this could get worse. And we just don’t know the extent of the damage that’s been done to date…

Some of the skepticism appears to be rooted in claims that manufacturers don’t have to generate safety data before bringing a vaccine to market. Can you address that?
Vaccines are among the most well-monitored products. By definition, we cannot approve a vaccine unless the benefits greatly outweigh any risk.

The average vaccine, before it gets an approval in the United States, has been studied in something like 22,000 people treated with the vaccine. That’s the average. Some trials are smaller, some are more than that. The Covid vaccines had about 40,000 to 50,000 when they were ultimately approved, about 20,000 to 25,000 treated with a vaccine when they were [issued an emergency use authorization]…

I want to talk to you more about the post-licensure efforts, but first I want to ask you a little more about the pre-licensure activity. One of the things some critics of vaccines say is that they’re not tested in placebo-controlled double-blinded trials. If it’s a brand new vaccine for a new indication — like the new RSV vaccines — they were tested in double-blinded placebo-controlled trials.
The initial Covid vaccines were [tested in] double-blinded placebo-controlled trials.

The problem is that you get into these crazy criticisms where it’s almost like you can’t win for losing…

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Reader Interactions

64Comments

  2. 2.

    TBone

    Haven’t had a chance to digest all of this post yet but right off the bat I want to hug you, AL!

    This comports, can confirm, and gives me so much hope for progress.  (But…Dang, are we gonna even HAVE science for long enough to keep the wolves from the door?)

    https://www.pennmedicine.org/news/news-releases/2023/october/penn-study-finds-serotonin-reduction-causes-long-covid-symptoms

    Components of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remain in the gut of some long COVID patients, causing persistent inflammation, vagus nerve dysfunction, and neurological symptoms

  3. 3.

    hrprogressive

    At the rate we’re going, we’re just going to live in a Permanent Pandemic – whether it’s COVID, or Bird Flu, or Any Other Virus.

    Was already thinking about trying to stockpile some N95’s prior to today’s post. You know, before the next virus fully takes off / we’re suffering in another Trump Admin.

    Definitely gonna do it now. Probably a good idea for others, too.

  4. 4.

    Geo Wilcox

    That teen in Canada reminds me of the 1918 flu. Cytokine storm anyone? Same thing that killed millions last century.

  5. 5.

    WereBear

    @Baud: We don’t have vaccines for QAnon, Trumpism, or the madness of crowds.

    This is a global problem. We have a hard layer who are just not going to accept science because it endangers their immortal souls.

  9. 9.

    BritinChicago

    I got the new Covid vaccine and the flu vaccine, both within the last month or so. CVS is urging me to get both the RSV vaccine and the peneumonia vaccine. Any informed (and disinterested) views on whether they are worth it? (I’m over 70 but don’t have any special risk factors. I’m not particularly likely to be exposed to anything nasty, though I do get out of the house occasionally.)

  12. 12.

    Van Buren

    Timely post, as I am taking the day off with some kind of bug. Started with a headache yday afternoon, and by 10 PM it was a horrific headache, plus chills and nausea. Feel almost 100% now, but need to rest and don’t want to infect anyone. No repiratory aspect, so I don’t think it is COVID, although 2 teachers with classrooms near mine have come down with it. Contagious diseases are reason #113 why I want to retire. At 62, I’m too old to be exposed to this crud every day.

  14. 14.

    HinTN

    the Trump Admin needs serious players for CDC, FDA, NIH

    Sure, that’ll be at the top of RFK’s (or whatever knuckle dragger gets picked) list.

  15. 15.

    satby

    @BritinChicago: I got the pneumonia vax almost two years ago, and that (I was told) is a one and done type.

    I had a really serious resp. infection the winter of ’22 that was not positive for flu or covid, but after a couple of weeks sent me to the emergency room. It was probably RSV, and because I’m older (now 69) and have asthma I am getting that vaccine too. The initial cold didn’t seem so bad at all and I kept going; but the eventual complications I developed kept me sick for 6 weeks and took several more months to build my stamina back. That’s why RSV is a risk to older people, it’s the possible complications.

    Edit: and to clarify, the pneumonia vaccine protects against Pneumococcal (bacterial, from strep) pneumonia, not viral.

  16. 16.

    WereBear

    @BritinChicago: Thing is, there are cautionary things to think of with vaccines. Based on observations with polio epidemics, people who were worn out, stressed, or already compromised in myriad ways got hit harder, and longer.

    Heck, vets now space out vaccines in cats and dogs, because the all-at-once approach caused problems. We’re not that different, biologically :)

    Likewise, Public Health says, “let’s do both at once and not visit them in the hospital” because of the scale they make decisions on. It’s mass sense, when there is vaccine hesitancy, or just laziness going on.

    But individually, that might not be a good idea. The military does it anyway because these are young and healthy people, and it still is miserable.

    Space them out and rest the day after. I got the shingles, booked the COVID, but probably won’t get the flu. That’s the one that is the least likely to work because it mutates so, but then, I don’t work and don’t go out and only mingle with the vaccinated.

    Also, an easy thing to do for health is drop the junk food and get more protein. Get a blood sugar meter and see what that meal is really doing to your blood sugar. Only took a week for my husband to overhaul his whole approach. Lost fifty pounds and has energy again.

    In my case, I discovered my body doesn’t do “slow release carbs.” It goes in there with a hammer and turns everything to sugar like it was a military operation.

  17. 17.

    New Deal democrat

    I am going to take very strong exception to the “Covid19_disease” forecast in this post. Neither BIobot’s nor the CDC’s latest wastewater updates through November 2 show even the slightest indication of an upturn in prevalence. What they do show is that the decline since August has flattened out.

    Yes we all expect an upturn with colder weather and the resulting indoor holiday get-togethers. But whether that likely upturn will be anywhere near as drastic as that proposed in the model is completely speculative.

    What we do know, in addition to the above wastewater data, is that weekly deaths have continued to decrease. For the latest week for which full reporting is available, October 12, there were 759 deaths. The preliminary data for the week of November 12 is 273 deaths. Based on past trends from preliminary data, this forecasts about 550-600 deaths when the data is complete. And given the lag from wastewater prevalence, deaths will likely continue to decline.

    Wastewater now is at about 45% of the levels one year ago. If there is a similar holiday spike as last year, that will translate into a peak of about 1200-1250 deaths in the second week of January. Well below the spike suggested in this post.

  18. 18.

    WereBear

    @BritinChicago: I consider the RSV and pneumonia vaccines to be good things too. Mr WayofCats has had severe pneumonia, so he’s at risk .

    Consider vaccination a new hobby. Seniors are supposed to have them! :)

  20. 20.

    WereBear

    @satby: I once whisked Mr WayofCats to the doctor because he was “just a cold” and the cats were swarming him with concern.

    It was pneumonia and we caught it “early.” I listen to the cats.

  21. 21.

    Tony G

    I’m confident that RFK Junior will solve all of these problems without any of that evil “modern medicine”.

  22. 22.

    lowtechcyclist

    @WereBear: Our cats have been strictly indoors for the past 25 years, and we have no intention of letting them (or any future generation of cats) roam outdoors ever again.  Less risk to them, and less risk to the birds.

  24. 24.

    WereBear

    @lowtechcyclist: And the risks to the birds is humans; modern ag with poisons, habitat destruction, loss of places to land while migrating.

    Not so long ago, very few neutered the cats or kept them indoors. Not everyone even fed them!

    And yet, all these hungry cats didn’t destroy the bird population. I suspect them even less, now. In fact, a researcher was fired from the Smithsonian for falsifying data to blame cats.

    And in places where this false science was believed, killing cats increased the rat population which really did a number on the birds. They are the ones who eat the bird eggs.

  27. 27.

    No Nym

    @WereBear: “But individually, that might not be a good idea. The military does it anyway because these are young and healthy people, and it still is miserable.”

    I learned that this year! I am very pro-vaccine and have kept up with my COVID shots. When I had my 8th COVID shot along with the flu vax in September, I developed shingles within about 10 days. I have never had chicken pox, but I knew I had been exposed because my child had a horrible case of it when she was 13. Because of what I have heard about the shingles shot, and the last 4 years of chasing COVID shots, I had not had my Shingrix yet. I will probably get it next spring if I don’t have to get another COVID vax for a while. In the course of all this, I found out shingles eruptions are a fairly common reaction to the COVID vax, something that has been noted in numerous studies internationally. One vax at a time for me from here on out!

  29. 29.

    TF79

    @New Deal democrat: I laughed at that model as well. Basically it takes the flat/downward current trend and just draws a vertical line starting right now. Basically just “cases will get bad this winter, but probably” which likely has truth to it, but it’s hardly a model/forecast in any quantified sense

  30. 30.

    lee

    I had a chuckle at this

    So we can’t screw around, the Trump Admin needs serious players for CDC, FDA, NIH

    Trump is putting someone who doesn’t believe in germs as SecDef

    @BritinChicago: ​
    For what’s it worth, I’m getting my 92 year old dad fully vaccinated. He does live in ‘Senior Living’ apartments so there is a huge potential for a viral wildfire to go thru.

  32. 32.

    hrprogressive

    @TF79:

    I was a very strict “avoid COVIDer” for almost 3 straight years.

    The person I still reside with stopped most precautions in July 2023, and it wasn’t until this past September that they were finally tagged with it.

    At-home mitigation measures appeared to work, I did not test positive myself, nor show any symptoms. So, unless I’ve had a purely asymptomatic infection and have had zero downstream effects in almost 5 years, I’ve still never caught it.

    And I basically dropped my own mitigation measures earlier this year, except as noted, when I was around a known infection, and when I went to my PCP last month for a checkup.

    I say all that to say I think a lot of forecasting and modeling just has not caught up with the actual current state of the semi-pandemic.

    The last time we really had millions of infections a day was 2021-2022 when Omicron was brand new. And the impacts were Everywhere.

    Those impacts by and large aren’t present any more. So where are these hypothetical infections?

    It’s a shame the Biden Admin swept it under the rug during the 2022 election cycle.

    Good, reliable data, is next to impossible to find now.

  33. 33.

    eclare

    @BritinChicago:

    I would get the pneumonia vaccine.  There was a really nasty strain six years ago that killed my dad.  He had underlying conditions, but one day he was scheduled to be released from the hospital, and two days later he was gone.

  35. 35.

    hrprogressive

    @WereBear: ​
     

    I still have some from when I last stocked up, but with the idea of – at best, we’re going to sleepwalk into another pandemic even if it’s not necessarily “imminent” yet – seems like getting ahead of it now is probably smart.

  36. 36.

    VeniceRiley

    Still no COVID boosters available in UK without being over 65 or another big risk factor. Not available for private money either.

    I gave up and went on vacay anyway. My wife (who gets her shots because of work) absolutely needed to not be homebound just because of me. I read some study that coating the inside of your nostrils with Neosporin reduces your chances of getting severely infected; so that’s what I did for the airport and plane to and from Tenerife. Seems to have worked.

  37. 37.

    p.a.

    @NotMax: “Red pepper flakes I brought from New York.”  Looked like 3lbs worth😂😂😂

    She doesn’t seem to be posting as much anymore.  Lots of “shorts”, which I’m not a fan of.

     

    My Sicilian uncle would put an envelope of red pepper flakes in his suit pocket if he was going to an event at an “Anglo” restaurant or hall.

  38. 38.

    Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)

    @Tony G: I am waiting for RFK2 or some other MAGAt pundit to claim that H5N1 was cooked up by Big Pharma and vengeful liebruls.

  40. 40.

    TF79

    @hrprogressive: agreed on all counts – a bit of “preparing to win the last war” in many ways. Part of my day job is thinking about how those behavioral choices you note interact with the underlying epidemiological properties (which can be very different for different pathogens, or even variants of the same pathogen like the alpha vs omicron strains). Stay healthy!

  42. 42.

    Chris Johnson

    @eclare: I’m debating getting rid of my masks and just depending on being isolated, and not being near people publically, and probably hand santizer?

    So my calculation there is, I’m expecting a designed backlash against not COVID, but masking. Just as before, but now with government backing. I don’t think public places will be able to require masking, and I think it’ll make you a target. I don’t know how severe that risk is.

    The thing is, I’m operating under the assumption that the Trump administration is in fact meant to kill as many of us as possible, but in a bombless way. I can’t begin to guess whether it has to exploit existing natural diseases and viruses, but I’m certain that it’s possible to cultivate attacks USING those, and it doesn’t have to have the support of all the right wing to do it.

    If the craziest of the crazies are instructed to assault people wearing masks by, say, having COVID and going up, pulling off the mask, coughing in their face and laughing, and that they’ll be defended if they do it, that’ll be super appealing to the craziest of the crazies, and it’s our institutions, freedom of businesses to protect themselves and set their own rules, and just self-preservation that’s made such things not exist yet.

    But if I’m right, RFK Jr. is there as the most likely person to use authority to force people not to be protected from disease. It sure ain’t because he’s so photogenic, or well-adjusted. The one thing he has is a willingness to take away protections from others, and I think that’s important and bears watching.

  46. 46.

    Rachel Bakes

    Thank you AL! I had hoped we wouldn’t be heading into doom and the continued need for these updates but apparently I was wrong.

    planned to get Covid/flu vaccines this week but now I have my son’s cold. ASAP, followed by shingrix in2-3 weeks to get me current on everything I can.

    sorry, disconnect in last tweet about the phrase, “the erudite RFK…” wtf?

  47. 47.

    Percysowner

     

    I got my Covid and Flu shots 2 weeks ago. I was told I really should have done it early in September, which annoyed me, because I was waiting to get closer to the holidays. Anyway, I’m going to check exactly what I can booster this year, because next year I think I’ll be talking to the people on the street who are looking to buy drugs so they can point me toward the black market vaccines LOL, although not sure I’m joking with RFK Jr. running the show.

    In any case, I have my passport and am lobbying for my kids to get their passports updated and get passports for their kids, so that IF we have to go to Canada for updated COVID and Flu shots, we will be ready.

  48. 48.

    Harrison Wesley

    @Chris Johnson: This may depend on where one lives. Florida has a very anti-health government but I’ve never gotten any static about masking even when I’m the only one on a crowded bus.

  49. 49.

    WereBear

    On the good side, I have to buckle down to work and  my only co-workers are cats when Mr WayofCats is on his vampire sleep schedule.

    And the cats are all good liberals, as most cats are. They have an Egalitarian Civilization.

    On the other side, I write a cheerful blog about cute animals, and it’s been a heavy lift this last week…

  50. 50.

    pat

    @BritinChicago:

    I can’t think of any reason not to be vaccinated for pneumonia and RSV and flu and covid.  Why not?  Maybe a day or two of a sore arm, maybe not feeling so good, but by god it’s better than suffering the infections.

  51. 51.

    bluefoot

    If you’re worried about your reaction to a particular or combination of vaccinations, for sure space them out. But get vaccinated unless you have health reasons not to!

    AL: THANK YOU for continuing to do these posts. I know they are a lot of work and I am very grateful you do these.

    I’ve said before I work in biopharma. We had a post-election company town hall and most of the questions were about 1) how will we continue to put patient safety and benefit first w a new TFG administration 2) how will we stay committed to diversity for both employees and patients in clinical trials 3) how will we continue working toward equity in access to drugs, vaccines, etc. I was happy to see that at least the rank and file is still committed to the mission.

  53. 53.

    Percysowner

     

    @bluefoot: My Primary Care doctor was iffy on RSV for a while, but when the cases started going up he said to get it. He also knows I take care of grandkids, one of whom is in first grade, so is bringing home every germ in the city. Basically, RSV seems to be case by case and ask your doctor. Pneumonia is a big yes. Shingles is a big yes as well. Also make sure your DTAP is up to date.

  54. 54.

    Anne Laurie

    @Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq): I am waiting for RFK2 or some other MAGAt pundit to claim that H5N1 was cooked up by Big Pharma and vengeful liebruls.

    Don’t bother waiting — the Usual Suspects are already telling each other that Bill Gates cooked up ‘this new cow flu’ threat to tighten the Deep State’s chokehold on Our Freedumb!!!  Because how else would a ‘harmless’ 20-year-old bird flu just suddenly attack a pandemic-weakened human population, amiright?!?  SCIENCE!

    These people are idiots, whose level of reasoning would shame a medieval serf.  One can only hope their incoming God Emperor seizes on a new, improved miracle preventative / cure — raw milk from an infected cow, for instance, or undercooked chicken from flocks preventatively slaughtered…

  56. 56.

    Fair Economist

    @WereBear: Covid mutates much faster than flu. We get a significantly different flu strain every 2-3 years. Covid comes up with a significantly different strain every 6 months.

  57. 57.

    Bill Arnold

    @Chris Johnson:

    if the craziest of the crazies are instructed to assault people wearing masks by, say, having COVID and going up, pulling off the mask,

    That is assault.
    If anyone tries that with me, they may be physically harmed, and will know sudden fear.
    Shrug.

  58. 58.

    rebelsdad (aka texasboyshaun)

    I need the new covid booster but I don’t have insurance or Medicaid. Anyone know where I could get it for free in Florida? Thanks.

  59. 59.

    way2blue

    I was at Stanford hospital yesterday for a routine checkup, and asked the nurse why San Mateo & Santa Clara County medical facilities had reestablished mask requirements.  Was CoVID blooming again?  Her answer: the emergency rooms are again full.  Oh.

  60. 60.

    way2blue

    Given our current state of play, I’m reminded of this MJ article starring RFK Jr:

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/07/how-rfk-jr-falsely-denied-his-connection-to-a-deadly-measles-outbreak-in-samoa/

    How RFK Jr. Falsely Denied His Connection to a Deadly Measles Outbreak in Samoa

    And this one:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/11/26/deadly-measles-outbreak-hits-children-samoa-after-anti-vaccine-fears/

    Deadly measles outbreak hits children in Samoa after anti-vaccine fears
    CDC sending experts to help island nation after 32 people die of the highly infectious disease

  62. 62.

    wenchacha

    @Percysowner:  My husband and I got really sick after a visit with our grandson, a while back.  Terrible cough and fever. We tested at the Dr’s, neg for Covid, Flus A or B. She said, “it might be RSV, but past when a test would catch it.”

  63. 63.

    way2blue

    @pat:   Yep.  RSV is nasty.  Especially for people with asthma.  For me (w/o asthma), it was 2 months of constant coughing.  Night & day…  Highly motivating to get vaccinated.  Plus, the vaccine lasts 2 years.

  64. 64.

    way2blue

    @way2blue:  And she said—if medical staff become infected from patients and must stay out for a couple weeks—they’re already short staffed.  So not much backup, which becomes a problem too…

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