Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing well. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, as I mentioned last night, I had a very long day today and have another tomorrow, so just the basics again.
Let’s get the weird stuff out of the way up top. Earlier today The Times of London reported an article with the alarming headline “Zelensky’s Nuclear Option: Ukraine Months Away from Bomb.” The article was a bit better: (emphasis mine)
Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if Donald Trump withdraws US military assistance, according to a briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The country would quickly be able to build a basic device from plutonium with a similar technology to the “Fat Man” bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945, the report states. “Creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did within the framework of the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later,” the document reads.
With no time to build and run the large facilities required to enrich uranium, wartime Ukraine would have to rely instead on using plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods taken from Ukraine’s nuclear reactors.
Ukraine still controls nine operational reactors and has significant nuclear expertise despite having given up the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in 1996. The report says: “The weight of reactor plutonium available to Ukraine can be estimated at seven tons … A significant nuclear weapons arsenal would require much less material … the amount of material is sufficient for hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons.”
Such a bomb would have about one tenth the power of Fat Man, the document’s authors conclude.
“That would be enough to destroy an entire Russian airbase or concentrated military, industrial or logistics installations. The exact nuclear yield would be unpredictable because it would use different isotopes of plutonium,” said the report’s author, Oleksii Yizhak, head of department at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government research centre that acts as an advisory body to the presidential office and the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine.
Last month President Zelensky said he had told Trump that Ukraine would need nuclear weapons to guarantee his country’s security if it were prevented from joining Nato, as President Putin has demanded. Zelensky later said he had meant there was no alternative security guarantee, and Ukrainian officials have since denied Kyiv is considering nuclear rearmament.
The paper, which is published by the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, an influential Ukrainian military think tank, has been shared with the country’s deputy defence minister and is to be presented on Wednesday at a conference likely to be attended by Ukraine’s ministers for defence and strategic industries.
It is not endorsed by the Kyiv government but sets out the legal basis under which Ukraine could withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), the ratification of which was contingent on security guarantees given by the US, UK and Russia in the 1994 Budapest memorandum. The agreement stated that Ukraine would surrender its nuclear arsenal of 1,734 strategic warheads in exchange for the promise of protection.
“The violation of the memorandum by the nuclear-armed Russian Federation provides formal grounds for withdrawal from the NPT and moral reasons for reconsideration of the non-nuclear choice made in early 1994,” the paper states.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly pushed back on The Times‘ reporting. From The Kyiv Independent:
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry on Nov. 13 denied media reports suggesting that Kyiv was planning to develop weapons of mass destruction.
“Ukraine is committed to the NPT (the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons); we do not possess, develop, or intend to acquire nuclear weapons,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said via X.
“Ukraine works closely with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and is fully transparent to its monitoring, which rules out the use of nuclear materials for military purposes.”
The Times reported on Nov. 13 that Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb “within months” if U.S. military assistance under President-elect Donald Trump were to cease, according to a briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry seen by the outlet.
The report suggests that Ukraine could swiftly build a basic device using plutonium and technology similar to that of the atomic bomb the U.S. dropped on Nagasaki in 1945.
“Creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did during the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later,” the document reads.
The Foreign Ministry has previously denied media reports that Ukraine plans to develop its own weapons of mass destruction. Speculation about Ukraine’s nuclear options increased after President Volodymyr Zelensky on Oct. 17 said that he told Trump in September that Ukraine must either join NATO or pursue nuclear capabilities for the country’s protection.
Zelensky later walked back the comments, saying that Kyiv is not pursuing nuclear weapons and the remarks were made to emphasize the failures of the Budapest Memorandum.
Under the 1994 agreement, Ukraine willingly surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for receiving security guarantees from the U.S., the U.K., and Russia.
Let’s keep the fuckery to a minimum, shall we?
More seriously, and as I’ve written here repeatedly, I would be very surprised to find out that neither Ukraine nor a number of other EU and NATO member states were not very quietly and very quickly working on plans for how to quickly get to or past breakout (the Japanese option) in response to both Putin’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and the Biden administration’s too cautious by half response. Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO’s military committee, explained it very succinctly at today’s IISS conference:
⚡️ “I’m absolutely sure, if Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would already be in Ukraine, kicking them out,” says Rob Bauer, Chairman of NATO’s Military Committee.
📹: The International Institute for Strategic Studies / Youtube
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 13, 2024 at 6:54 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Need to Finally Push Russia Towards Making a Fair Peace; We Will Certainly Consolidate All Our Internal Forces – Address by the President
13 November 2024 – 21:15
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Briefly about today.
First – our gratitude goes to our air defense warriors, everyone in different branches and types of forces protecting the sky. Every night, every day, they shoot down Russian “Shahed” drones and missiles. This morning, they intercepted Russian ballistics. This is significant. Every such success means saving the lives of our people. Ukraine is grateful to all our partners who help us with anti-missiles and air defense systems. We are now working to further increase supplies from our partners – both missiles and defense systems, as well as everything we need to strengthen our mobile fire groups. The strategic goal is to reach a practical level of cooperation with our partners that will enable us to produce the air defense systems and anti-missiles we need here in Ukraine.
I spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz today. Germany is a leader in helping us, specifically with air defense systems. And we have now discussed the delivery of another Iris-T system and future work on the development of our air shield. We have also discussed the Ramstein format: a cooperation that has greatly benefited Ukraine and all our partners – it is our collective strength. We have also discussed preparations for the G20 meeting in Brazil, which will be held as early as next week. We are negotiating with our partners to ensure that Ukraine’s position is represented in all relevant discussions. Only together can the world guarantee a truly lasting peace and lasting stability in international relations.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report: the frontline, and most attention is focused on the Donetsk region. As well as the occupier’s attempts to expand their offensive, especially in the Kupyansk direction; I am grateful to all our units for their resilience. In general, I would like to highlight the efforts of our combat brigades, which have shown their tremendous courage and effectiveness these days. The 24th separate mechanized brigade, the 44th separate artillery brigade, the 60th and the 65th separate mechanized brigades, the 68th separate jaeger brigade, the 102nd, the 124th and the 126th separate territorial defense brigades, the 128th separate mountain assault brigade and the 406th separate artillery brigade. Well done, warriors!
And one more thing.
We are actively working on the points of Ukraine’s internal Resilience Plan – the Plan that will fill with internal strength everything we presented to our partners in the Victory Plan. Today, meetings were held with government officials, heads of state-owned companies, as well as those in the Presidential Office responsible for certain areas, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. We are also incorporating the suggestions of civil society organizations into the document. We will continue such discussions with all those whose expertise can support our state. We need a detailed, doctrinal approach. To ensure that our state withstands now. And we need to finally push Russia towards making a fair peace. We will certainly consolidate all our internal forces. I am grateful to everyone who is helping us!
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
Let us keep the Defenders of Ukraine in our prayers.
RIP – Vadym Koropiy (24), Kostiantyn Bakhmatskyi (44), Mykola Kokhanivskyi (52), Taras Kots (32)
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place…#LetUkraineStrikeBack
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 1:04 AM
The US:
🇺🇸 U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: “The Biden administration will signal US Congress that they would like to see additional funds for Ukraine for 2025 so that they can be in the best possible position to achieve their objectives and win at the negotiating table.” t.me/noel_reports…
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) November 13, 2024 at 4:42 PM
Good luck with that.
The Biden administration plans to increase U.S. military assistance to Ukraine in the final months of its term, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Brussels on Nov. 13.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 13, 2024 at 9:28 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
The Biden administration plans to increase U.S. military assistance to Ukraine in the final months of its term, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Brussels on Nov. 13.
The statement came during Blinken’s one-day emergency visit to Brussels, where he met with several officials, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Blinken said that the outgoing administration would “continue to shore up everything we’re doing for Ukraine” to ensure it can either fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a position of strength.
The urgent trip comes amid heightened concerns about future support for Ukraine following Donald Trump’s election victory and a political crisis in Germany, both of which raise uncertainties at a critical juncture in the conflict with Russia.
Trump has previously claimed he could end the war in a day, and according to the Washington Post, he recently spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, advising against escalation. The Kremlin has denied the report.
“We will continue to shore up everything we’re doing for Ukraine to ensure it can effectively defend itself,” Blinken said ahead of planned discussions with allied representatives and Ukrainian officials.
“President Biden fully intends to drive through the tape and use every remaining day to further strengthen this alliance,” he added.
Blinken also issued a stern warning regarding North Korea’s recent deployment of troops to support Russian forces, saying this “demands and will receive a firm response.”
The U.S. diplomacy chief emphasized the interconnected nature of security, citing the growing “indivisibility of security between the Euro-Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Middle Eastern theaters,” and urged allies to pursue even closer cooperation.
With only a few months left, the Biden administration plans to expedite over $6 billion in already appropriated funding for Ukrainian military support.
“Our approach remains consistent,” said U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on CBS’s Face the Nation, “which is to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield, and ultimately at the negotiating table.”
Tulsi Gabbard for DNI, a Russian spy. Brilliant
— Adam Kinzinger (@adamkinzinger.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 3:21 PM
I’m not sure she’s a Russian spy, but she is definitely under Russian reflexive control:
🤯😖😱 worst case for #Ukraine
Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla.bsky.social
·
2 Std.
#Trump has just appointed this woman Director of National Intelligence. A pro #Russian, pro- #Putin mouthpiece.
To remind you the #UK shares intelligence with the #US.
Worse than worst case scenario.— Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer (@margareterosali.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 6:15 PM
Germany:
Ukraine will receive the sixth German IRIS-T air defense system by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 13 after a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 13, 2024 at 2:49 PM
Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Ukraine will receive the sixth German IRIS-T air defense system by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 13 after a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Ukraine has lobbied international partners for more air defense capabilities in the wake of intensifying Russian strikes targeting energy infrastructure.
Germany ordered an additional 17 IRIS-T air defense systems for Ukraine, Scholz said on Sept. 4. Berlin handed over the most recent IRIS-T system to Kyiv in early October.
During the call, Zelensky and Scholz discussed further cooperation in the defense sector, particularly the volume of air defense supplies for the next year and possible additional assistance with air defense systems from Germany.
The counterparts also agreed that the meetings of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein format, should be maintained, the Presidential Office’s statement read.
Zelensky also said that Ukraine’s vision of a just and lasting peace should be presented at the Group of Twenty (G20) meeting in Brazil and thanked Germany for its support.
Initially a hesitant partner, Berlin has become Ukraine’s second-largest military donor after the U.S. However, Scholz is still reluctant to supply some key capabilities, namely Taurus long-range missiles.
Olaf decided to open his campaign to remain chancellor by running against Ukraine:
#Ukraine #Germany
Strong but false words by #Bundeskanzler #OlafScholz
Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦
@bctallis.bsky.social
·
3 Std.
“The wrong man, in the wrong job, at the wrong time.”
h/t
@BenWallace70— Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer (@margareterosali.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 6:26 PM
For the second time in his life, Friedrich Merz is a step away from taking charge of Germany.
Merz has called for an ultimatum to Moscow after which Ukraine could receive the much-desired Taurus missiles, powerful weapons that Scholz refused to provide.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 13, 2024 at 4:45 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
For the second time in his life, Friedrich Merz is a step away from taking charge of Germany.
Losing the fight to control the Christian Democratic Union in 2002 to future Chancellor Angela Merkel and forced to retire from politics a few years later, Merz is now the frontrunner to lead the Union back into government.
With Germany’s ruling center-left coalition in tatters, Ukraine’s leading European backer is heading toward snap elections set for Feb. 23. And it’s all but certain that Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, will lose his post as a result.
The domestic turmoil comes at a critical moment for Ukraine as Russia holds the upper hand on the battlefield, and Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House may lead to a decreased U.S. involvement in the war.
Yet, not all is grim for Kyiv.
Polls predict a sweeping victory for the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), whose leader Merz seems ready to ditch Scholz’s cautious Ukraine strategy.
Merz has called for an ultimatum to Moscow after which Ukraine could receive the much-desired Taurus missiles, powerful weapons that Scholz refused to provide. He also urged Europe to take up leadership in the pro-Kyiv coalition amid uncertainty about Trump’s presidency.
For that, the 69-year-old conservative has his work cut out for him.
With a real possibility of a U.S. withdrawal, rising Ukraine-skeptic parties in Germany on the left and right, and an increasingly tight budget, Merz must cross a string of obstacles to deliver on his plans.
“Even an outspoken Merz and a strong CDU/CSU showing in the next elections will not be able to defy gravity when it comes to providing Ukraine with additional military capabilities, defense-industrial capacity, and budgetary support,” Jorn Fleck, senior director with the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, told the Kyiv Independent.
“Germany’s capacity on all three is lagging and shifting the needle in all these areas — more kit, more ammo, more macro-financial assistance — is measured in years, not weeks or months.”
But for Merz, whose main rival Merkel has pushed the country into a painful dependence on Russia, solving the problems ultimately created by the former chancellor’s policies is worth the fight.
While the government’s dramatic collapse sparked some concern about the flow of support from Europe’s largest military donor, arms for Ukraine seem to be safe at the moment. Both Scholz and Merz agree to provide Kyiv with the necessary aid.
Germany allocated around 8 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine in 2024. The federal budget for 2025 contains only half of that, with Berlin hoping that the G7 loan can cover additional assistance.
“The previously planned and initiated support for Ukraine can continue without restriction,” and additional aid can be theoretically approved under provisional budget management, said Michael Wustmann, a research assistant to German lawmaker Sebastian Schäfer, who sits on Bundestag’s budget committee.
But Germany heads towards months of political wrangling that will keep its leaders distracted from Ukraine. Even if Merz’s CDU/CSU secures the expected victory, difficult coalition negotiations are likely to follow.
“Germany will be preoccupied with itself until the election and then for another four to six months, depending on how long it takes to form a coalition,” says Martin Bialecki, editor-in-chief of the journals Internationale Politik (IP) and Internationale Politik Quarterly (IPQ).
“There will be no momentum, no leadership in Europe, and also no reaching out to France, Poland, and the U.K., which is so urgently needed. And all this before (and after) Trump takes office, under whom freezing of the war would be the most likely scenario,” he told the Kyiv Independent.
Much, much, much more at the link.
Here’s last night’s/this morning’s Ukrainian air defense tally:
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
0/2 S-300 ballistic missiles
2/2 Kh-101 cruise missiles
2/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
84/90 Shahed drones (37 shot down, 47 downed by electronic warfare)Two more drones left towards Russia.
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) November 13, 2024 at 4:59 AM
Kyiv:
Ukrainian kids deserve safe skies.
Russian warplanes don’t.
That’s it that’s the tweet.
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 13, 2024 at 6:30 AM
⚡ On November 13, Russian armed forces launched a combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv for the first time in the past 73 days.
united24media.com/latest-news/…— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 13, 2024 at 5:15 AM
Whole of Ukraine on alert: About 6 groups of Russian cruise missiles fired earlier by Tu-95 bombers, perhaps 3 in each group, are maneuvering in various parts of the country. In the capital, Kyiv, two Shahed attack drones are flying over the southern part of the city.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 12:20 AM
Smoke from missile impact in Kyiv – could be result of debris fall from shot-down missile or direct impact. Another wave of missiles expected incoming at 0800, monitors say.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 12:45 AM
Video of Shahed flying close to my area in the west of Kyiv. Anti-aircraft guns were audible here too. Reports this Shahed was shot down. Second wave of cruise missiles never materialized. Tu-95s have refueled and are returning to base in north Russia, monitors say.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 1:32 AM
Air raid alert has just sounded in Kyiv again – threat of ballistic missile attack.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 2:18 AM
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv today💔 For every child, elder, and family torn by war – stand with Ukraine.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 6:57 AM
UPD Kharkiv: Four civilians were injured in a russian Molniya drone strike on an apartment building.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 6:38 AM
Twice this morning, russian troops attacked Kharkiv with Molniya drones – one striking near a shopping mall, another hitting a residential building, injuring at least two civilians. After such attacks, one gets the feeling that Kharkiv is completely defenceless.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 5:51 AM
Kupiansk:
Russian forces attempted an assault in the Kupiansk direction on November 13, with some soldiers wearing Ukrainian military uniforms. The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces described this move as a violation of wartime laws.
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 13, 2024 at 1:06 PM
From United24 Media:
On November 13, Russian forces attempted an assault on the Kupiansk direction, with some soldiers reportedly dressed in Ukrainian military uniforms. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this incident on Telegram, describing the move as a violation of the laws of armed war.
According to the report, Russian assault groups launched four waves of attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions starting at approximately 14:30. The operation involved around 15 units of equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, and an UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle.
“The fact that a portion of the Russian soldiers wore Ukrainian Armed Forces uniforms constitutes a breach of warfare laws and is considered a war crime,” the General Staff stated.
Despite these tactics, Ukrainian forces successfully halted the assault, reportedly destroying all Russian armored equipment and inflicting significant personnel losses.
This is not the first instance of Russian forces reportedly disguising themselves in Ukrainian uniforms during assaults. In 2022, Russian soldiers wearing Ukrainian military attire attempted to seize an observation post in the Mykolaiv region, where they were ultimately neutralized.
Kherson Oblast:
⚡ An ambulance evacuating the injured was targeted by a Russian drone in Kherson region.
The ambulance was destroyed, but the medical personnel were not injured, according to the Head of the Regional Administration.
📷: Kherson Regional Administration
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 13, 2024 at 11:00 AM
Kurakhove:
🌊🙏 Consequences of the destruction of Kurakhove reservoir dam, – volunteer Denys Hristov.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 9:44 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast is failing to achieve significant progress, with heavy losses in equipment
Over six days, Ukraine identified the destruction of 77 Russian armored vehicles despite Russia’s increased use of reinforcements
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 2:00 PM
From Euromaidan Press:
A Russian counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast has yet to see significant success but has cost Russia heavily in equipment, Forbes has reported.
During the operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, initiated in August 2024, Ukrainian forces advanced up to 35 kilometers into Russian territory, capturing hundreds of soldiers and inflicting over 20,000 casualties on Russian troops. However, the advance has recently stalled due to bolstered Russian defenses and reinforcements.
According to Forbes analyst David Axe, over six days, Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher identified 77 destroyed Russian armored vehicles on the front.
“That’s enough equipment for three Russian battalions. And it’s only what’s ‘visible and confirmed with video,” according to Kriegsforscher. Actual Russian losses could be much higher,’” said Forbes, citing Kriegsforscher on social media.
On 13 November, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a record single-day loss for Russia: 1,950 personnel and 104 destroyed armored vehicles. Kursk Oblast accounts for the majority of these losses, with fighting there at least twice as intense as in other areas.
The Kremlin reinforced several of its brigades, including the 51st Airborne Regiment and the 810th Marine Brigade, with fresh vehicles and then deployed them to Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, Ukrainian brigades have held firm and even managed to counterattack in parts of the front, advancing near Novoivanovka.
“The fighting shows no sign of letting up. Amid the uncertainty of extreme and unsustainable losses and global political change, the Russians are going for broke in Kursk,” wrote David Axe.
Earlier, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russia had deployed tens of thousands of its best forces to the Kursk Oblast.
At the same time, BILD analyst Julian Röpcke reported that Russia’s counteroffensive has turned into a disaster for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals, with the Russians sustaining heavy losses.
Toretsk:
Ukrainian forces deployed the powerful Soviet-era Pion artillery system near Toretsk, now enhanced with US-supplied projectiles
This combination enhances Ukraine’s firepower as it confronts Russian positions in Donetsk Oblast
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 5:00 PM
Russian occupied Crimea:
Ukrainian partisans in Crimea have observed that Russia is dispersing troops and materials towards abandoned military bases.
Fearing Ukrainian strikes, Russian forces are dispersing various equipment in an effort to decrease the chances of being targeted.
📷 Atesh partisans
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 11:00 AM
🚨 A car explosion in occupied Sevastopol targeted a Russian military officer. The blast took out the Chief of Staff of the 41st Brigade, Captain 1st Rank Valery Trankovsky. Witnesses report the explosion was so powerful it scattered debris across the courtyard, leaving a massive hole.
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) November 13, 2024 at 4:59 AM
Meduza has the details:
A car exploded in Sevastopol on Wednesday morning, killing a military serviceman who was behind the wheel, Russian-installed governor Mikhail Razvozhayev reported.
According to Razvozhayev, the blast was reported to emergency services at 9:53 a.m. local time. Firefighters quickly arrived at the scene and removed the driver from the vehicle, but paramedics were unable to save him.
“The investigative authorities will determine the cause of the explosion, but it’s clear that the possibility of sabotage cannot be ruled out,” Razvozhayev said.
The Telegram channel Baza identified the driver as a first-rank captain from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, though this has not been independently confirmed. Baza and Mash, citing preliminary information, reported that an IED was detonated in the vehicle.
👀 In Crimea, in the Dzhankoy district, a road bridge collapsed, it could not withstand the truck…
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 2:02 PM
New York:
The 12th Operational Brigade Azov struck Russian infantry positions inside New-York. t.me/noel_reports…
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) November 13, 2024 at 11:07 AM
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Luhansk region.
Last night, the Achilles strike UAV battalion of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, in cooperation with the 1st National Guard Brigade “Bureviy,” destroyed a BM-21 Grad.
t.me/ngu_3027/3321— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 6:56 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Hey there
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 5:32 AM
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Та й таке!🌚 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
And that’s it! 🌚 #песпатрон
The in video text machine translates as:
Reconnecting with nature after reading comments that I’m not a real Patron dog and that I’ve been replaced 50 times already
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Wow, what a powerful statement.
rekoob
As someone who lived in Frankfurt from early 1988 to early 1990, Germany’s current stance is eerily similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall. Feet of clay, not wanting to upset the apple cart, as it were.
Anonymous At Work
So, if Ukraine gets and then uses a nuke, then Japan gets some, and then Taiwan, or would Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia beat Taiwan? I figure South Korea would either slip in somewhere quickly or would be like Israel.
Mai Naem mobile ¹
A nuclear Ukraine with a nuke curious potus. What could possibly go wrong? BTW, there’s another hurricane forming in the Caribbean. Good thing Biden isn’t nuke curious.
Anonymous At Work
Does the dispersal of materiel to various bases in the Crimea signal a turn? The strategy that Wesley Clark used in Kosovo was NATO airpower to force Serbian forces to disperse and get picked off by Kosovar irregulars/partisans.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Slava Ukraini, Heroyam Slava
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/United24media/status/1856713127972249640#m
The Cost.
hrprogressive
@Gin & Tonic:
About as powerful as Biden grinning his ass off in the oval office shaking hands and making nice with the incoming Fascist assclown.
Poe Larity
All the old warheads we extracted are sitting in New Mexico or Nevada. Should have shipped them back years ago.
Chet Murthy
@hrprogressive: First, just to be clear, Biden has been the worst President of my lifetime. He presided over what appears to be the death of American democracy: the only chance we have, is that Trump and his minions will be -so- incompetent they can’t pull off their heist. That’s our only hope. So, I have no brief for defending the man. But what exactly is he supposed to do? Having been derelict in his duty to defend the Constitution, shall he now make gesture after pointless gesture, all to no end, except to enrage Trump and his feculent horde? I mean, to what end would that serve?
He’s screwed the pooch: of that there is no doubt. But some grand heroic gesture that perhaps gets him (or some of his subordinates) thrown in prison even sooner ….. and all for nothing …. that would just be pointless.
KatKapCC
This should be one of the site slogans up top.
@Chet Murthy: Do you really mean that Biden has been the worst president of your lifetime? Much as I’m annoyed with his meeting with Trump and his bad handling of Ukraine, that is an exceedingly absurd statement.
Chet Murthy
@KatKapCC: Yes, I do mean it. What Biden did, was -gamble- that his lackluster response to open sedition — an open coup attempt — would be enough. He was wrong in that gamble. What do you call a general who gambles and fails, losing the entire damn war? Do you call him an excellent general, b/c he had good tactics and such? No, you call him a failure, a colossal failure. Biden has lost us the war.
I know that many people here disagree, but I remain convinced that he should have arrested all the coup plotters and sent them to Gitmo on Jan 21 2021. Or soon thereafter. No lawyers, no reporters, no press conferences. It was good enough for Jose Padilla (remember him?) — it should be good enough for men who credibly attempted to overthrow our government.
Biden has been the worst President of our lifetimes: I don’t even see how it’s a question, it’s so obvious. I mean, who else created so much goddam ruin?
ETA: I’m not annoyed with his meeting with Trump: what else is he supposed to do? It’s a fair accompli at this point: the Republic is hanging on the forlorn hope that Trump will not be competent at destroying it. That’s it: that’s all we’ve got. So why should he make some grand gesture that does -nothing-. Why ? What’s the point of that? The time for grand gestures was in January 2021
ETA2: As many people have pointed out, if somebody had tried to run a coup in DC when the Founders were running things, that person would not have lasted until sundown: they’d have been hanged the same day. So the idea that somehow we need some ridiculous “due process’ that involves four goddamn years and nothing actually happening is …. bullshit. Absolute bullshit.
YY_Sima Qian
I think Rob Lee’s update yesterday indicated that Russia has massed units in the Zaporizhzhia direction, ready to attack, taking advantage of the thinly stretched Ukrainian defenses there, given the commitments to Donetsk & Kursk.
KatKapCC
@Chet Murthy:
And your expertise on this comes from where, other than inside your own ass? And because he didn’t do this, every other major and important and progressive thing he did means absolutely nothing to you? He’s worse than Trump, worse than GWB, worse than Reagan? I don’t know how old you are but we could throw in worse than Nixon too, most likely.
Biden did not “create” any ruin, and the fact that you are making him responsible for what Trump did is not only ridiculous, it is supremely disgusting and makes you sound like a fucking lunatic.
Chet Murthy
@KatKapCC: I’m 60. And we all have our own assessments of these things: you don’t have to justify yours to me, and I don’t have to justify mine to you. Generals are measured based on -results-. Results. Not on a curve. And not with the soft bigotry of low expectations.
He failed, and he failed because he gambled and lost.
P.S. Do you think that if Churchill had failed to hold off Hitler, and Hitler had taken the British Isles, he would have been judged a heroic PM who tried, did his best, etc, etc? No, he’d have been judged a failure, for losing the British Isles to an enemy invader. Nobody regards Harold Godwinson as a great king — he was beaten and his crown taken from him by William the Conqueror. When you’re have paramount power, you’re judged only by results.
KatKapCC
@Chet Murthy: So, tell me, have you undergone a brain transplant since July? Because I had a feeling about something, so I went to check.
On July 21, the day Biden dropped out of the race, rikyrah posted the text of a tweet from someone which read:
To which you, or your former self, or someone impersonating you, replied:
Which is a very weird way to spell WORST PREZ OF MY LIFE!!!!
Pray tell, when did you do a complete 180 in your opinions on things that happened years ago?
Seeker
@hrprogressive: seriously…maga was right f**k Joe Biden
Chet Murthy
@KatKapCC: As I said: when he lost the war. When. He. Lost. The. War. Up until then, we supported our leader, b/c that’s what troops do: troops that do not support their leader, are useless. Without support, no leader can accomplish anything. And we are not his -advisors- but only his -troops-. Thing is, the duty a leader owes to his troops, is to -win-.
Otherwise, he’s useless. And in this case, he has lost -colossally-.
And you will note that I’ve been steadfast on the position that he needed to send those bastards to Gitmo, from the jump. I got into bitter arguments with Omnes about this.
But hey, it’s all irrelevant now. Our hopes rest only upon the incompetence of our enemies.
MinuteMan
If Ukraine is developing nukes it’ll be very tightly under wraps until the appropriate moment. The question then becomes how they would utilize them. The problem with actually exploding them is that it invites counter-attack. Maybe they could explode one as a warning shot on a large Russian installation in the occupied territories though nuking your own territory is a bit strange. Maybe just destroying the bridge to Crimea would be a good show of force provided they have a credible retaliatory threat (e.g., nuke Kyiv and bye-bye Moskva.
Harrison Wesley
I’m glad Adam headed bedways. I doubt he’d be enjoying the comments.
KatKapCC
@Chet Murthy: What war are you talking about??? The campaign? So because he chose to step down from the race after being screamed at to do so by everybody and their mother, a race in which he was not exactly trouncing Trump in the polls, and because Harris lost thanks to systemic misogyny and racism and a vast disinfo campaign, that means that your previous tear-filled admiration for him disappeared and now he is the worst human being to ever be born. And you are now retroactively going to draw and quarter him for something from almost 4 years ago.
For the love of G-d. Go touch grass. Go touch more grass than every lawnmower ever invented.
Jay
@MinuteMan:
The Kerch Bridge is simply symbolic at this time, The railway span has not been repaired, and the highway span is limited to no vehicles larger than 2 tons, due to prior damage.
Jay
@KatKapCC:
Chet is simply pointing out that after Jan 6, MAGA should have been cut off at the knees, quickly, the Insurrectionists inside the House and Senate should have been cut off at the knees, the ruZZian funding and recipients should have been fully exposed, etc. The house should have been cleaned.
President Joe Biden thought the norms, institutions and laws would hold. They did not.
Dolt 47 isn’t even in office and ICE is already ramping up for deportations.
YY_Sima Qian
New slogan for the Trump Team!
Andrya
@Chet Murthy: With great respect, I vehemently disagree. Let me quote the words of Elrond in Lord of the Rings: “You will hear today all that you need in order to understand the purposes of the Enemy. There is naught that you can do, other than to resist, with hope or without it.” And as a reminder, Tolkien lived in Britain in 1940, when the British position appeared close to hopeless.
When Churchill became prime minister he could not have predicted that Hitler (besides being totally evil) would make three extremely stupid mistakes: redirecting the Luftwaffe to bombing civilians in 1940 (rather than RAF facilities), invading the USSR while Britain was still fighting, and declaring war on the US after Pearl Harbor. If Hitler had behaved evilly but rationally, Britain, and Churchill, might well have been overwhelmed.
If, G-d forbid (but it’s unfortunately possible) Ukraine is overwhelmed would you say Zelenskyy was a loser? Nat Turner’s rebellion? The Warsaw ghetto uprising?
I’d agree wholeheartedly that Biden, though excellent on domestic stuff/economics, has been a disaster on Ukraine- and Merrick Garland may well be the worst AG of my lifetime.
By the way, I don’t want to praise Churchill too much- he was absolutely awful re: Indian independence.
Jay
@Andrya:
Chet’s point, is “The Calls Are Coming From Inside The House”.
The Insurrectionists are back in charge, because the first time was only practice.
Slightly_peeved
The insurrectionists were already in charge, 6 to 3. They never left.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Mallard Filmore
Please tell me that our spooks have a plan to save our spies, and the most important secrets are sent to other 5Is with instructions to NOT give them back.
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
Probably not.
During the Dolt 45 Admin, the other members of the 5 Eyes, NATO et Al. just stopped sharing details.
ColoradoGuy
It’s easy to tag intelligence so leakers can be identified. Slightly different phrasing on an intel briefing, little snippets of information here and there, and then back-trace who the leaker was. I expect Five Eyes (and the parts of the CIA that are still functioning) to do just that.
Gloria DryGarden
@Mai Naem mobile ¹: do you have a sharpie? Can you aim that hurricane?
@ColoradoGuy:
@Jay: thanks to you both for these answers; it’s been on my mind.
Jay
@ColoradoGuy:
During Dolt 45’s admin, CICS simply stopped briefing their US Counterparts.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: sucks for us. But necessary.
what is CICS?
YY_Sima Qian
Something I did not know. Shows the US’ priorities (Great Power Competition w/ the PRC & supporting consumption of hydrocarbons), w/ addressing AGW subordinated to the primary priorities:
Here is the Bloomberg piece by David Fickling, referenced above. It is more focused on COP29 & AGW.
Butch
I thought I had read that Ukraine was a nuclear power until it agreed to eliminate them under a nonproliferation treaty?
Leo
@Chet Murthy:
President Biden did not lose the war. The American people did. They quite literally failed to support their leader.
The President clearly believes that in a democracy, you have to abide by the rule of law to uphold the rule of law. As we all should. In a democracy, the rule of law prevails. Until it does not. But you can not, you can not, you can not use authoritarian means to preserve the rule of law. If you do, you have already lost.
We all know that the trouble began with the rot from the inside. First, the appointment of three Trump justices, obtained by a Senate majority leader that strategically bent the rules. Then, select Trump judges slow-walking the prosecution of the insurrectionist-in-chief.
But all this is not the fault of President Biden. It falls squarely on the American voters, who in years past put a power balance in place in the Senate that made it possible.
Nobody ever said that democracy is a self-preserving system. It requires an informed electorate that is not only able to foresee the consequences of their preferences, but is also willing to actually come out and vote in sufficient numbers. We may soon find out that 73 million is not enough.
YY_Sima Qian
@Leo: Ukraine has not lost the war, but the Biden Administration has not done everything w/in its power to expedite aid to Ukraine, even w/in the domestic political & international geopolitical space. That is on the Administration.
You speak of abiding the rule of law, the Biden Administration certainly had no issue refusing to follow the law governing supply of US made weapons to foreign military units caught committing war crimes, specifically IDF units documented to have committed such crimes in Gaza. Blinken spiked the Dept. of State process that would have enforced the US laws in these matters as they related to Israeli conduct in Gaza. This disparity between policies vis-a-vis Israel & Ukraine is extraordinary & indefensible. This is especially galling since the the former is waging a war of vengeance in Gaza while undermining US geopolitical interests in the ME, while the latter is fighting for its national survival while bolstering US geopolitical interest in Eastern Europe; the former is carrying out war crimes & crimes against humanity on a daily basis as documented by the social media posts of IDF soldiers & public statements by Israeli officials, while the latter has been meticulous in following IHL & LOAC.
On a more meta level, for matters of foreign policy popular opinion generally follow elite (of which the policymakers of the Biden Admin. are part) opinion. So to say the “American people” “failed” their leader on a topic to do w/ foreign policy, it is not only a take w/ weirdly authoritarian/hagiographic vibe, it is IMO inaccurate.
Leo
@YY_Sima Qian: I was using the word war in the same metaphorical sense as I believed Chet Murthy to be using it, i.e., the war against authoritarianism in America, that was lost when Donald Trump was elected.
But your points regarding the wars that Russia and Israel are waging in Ukraine and in Gaza, and the policy failings of the US regarding both, are well made.
way2blue
@Chet Murthy: Biden should stop blocking Ukraine from using American-supplied weapons (and various other weapons with American-made components) under the international rules of war/defense.
IMHO. He should not obey in advance. Regardless…
way2blue
@MinuteMan: I would like to assume if/when Ukraine develops nuclear devices, they would a deterrent. With the genie already out of the bottle, combined with Russia’s ability to rattle American & German leaders with nuclear threats, it seems impossible to put him back in.
way2blue
@MinuteMan: Um. What? Tests with nuclear devices have a seismic signature similar to a small earthquake at zero depth (e.g., North Korea’s tests). With a pattern of seismic waves radiating outward from the center rather than a double couple. No need to do a demonstration project…