Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing well. Though because of my schedule we didn’t get a walk in this evening. She did get lots of noms. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, as I’ve mentioned today was a very long day. I’m going to just run down the basics, get cleaned up, and rack out.
The Russians opened up on Odesa about 4 hours ago (that would be 4 PM EST/11 PM local time in Ukraine).
Odesa right now! Residential building is on fire following a russian missile attack.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 3:38 PM
💔🤬 One of the apartments in Odesa after Russian strike…
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 4:05 PM
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.
Russia attacked the city of Odesa with drones and missiles late in the evening on Nov. 14, striking residential buildings and killing one civilian.
A “massive” Russian aerial attack targeted Odesa and the surrounding region, Governor Oleh Kiper reported.
One woman was killed and at least 10 others were injured, including a 9-year-old boy, Kiper said. A 22-year-old man sustained serious injuries and has been hospitalized, while the others are being treated in medical facilities for moderate injuries.
The attack destroyed an apartment building in the city center, Kiper said. Other residential buildings suffered fires and damage. The strike damaged a church, educational institutions, and vehicles.
The attack hit one of Odesa’s main heating pipelines, forcing the city to shut down one of its boiler houses. According to Kiper, the system was responsible for heating 220 apartment buildings, seven kindergartens, and four schools.
The boiler house also provided heat to a maternity hospital, where there are currently 22 babies and 28 people giving birth, Kiper said. The hospital is able to heat itself with its generator, and repairs are underway at the boiler house.
Emergency services are at work at the sites of the attack.
Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, called the strike on Odesa a “terrorist attack.”
“(Russian President Vladimir) Putin just likes to fight civilians,” he said.
Russia has ramped up its drone attacks across Ukraine, including in major cities like Odesa and the capital, Kyiv. Consecutive drone strikes targeted Odesa on Nov. 8 and 9, killing and injuring civilians.
Ukrainian officials have warned about the looming threat to the country’s energy and heating systems ahead of the winter months. The interim head of Ukraine’s state grid operator Ukrenergo said on Oct. 29 that the country may be facing its most challenging winter since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Here’s Ukraine’s air defense tally from last night/this morning:
Relatively small Russian drone attack on Ukraine last night – air raid siren did not even sound in Kyiv. Of 59 Shahed drones, 21 shot down, 38 lost through jamming. Wednesday’s “Big Attack” was not very damaging, with fewer missiles fired that initially feared.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:55 AM
This clip from President Zelenskyy’s interview on NBC has been making the rounds, but this is the first time I’ve seen it on Bluesky:
President Zelenskyy: “We are not ready to give our freedom to this fucking terrorist Putin”.
Zelenskyy will be studied as a hero, not only for Ukraine, but our current moment in time for generations.
— Meanwhile in Ukraine (@meanwhileua.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 4:17 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Continue to Work on Our Internal Resilience Plan – Address by the President
14 November 2024 – 20:18
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
It’s been a long day today.
We continue to work on our internal Resilience Plan – everything needed to ensure Ukraine stands strong. Today, we covered several points, including cultural sovereignty, which encompasses Ukraine’s cultural heritage, contemporary culture, and cultural diplomacy. The production of Ukrainian content and, to that end, fostering real and effective unity within Ukraine’s cultural community. This is part of our strength and an element of guaranteeing Ukraine’s ties with the global world. There are things that politics, public figures, and the media cannot convey to others, but emotions can – art can. Culture, in general, is a tool that works universally for humanity across different parts of the world. We must devote much more state attention to this, and we will. Today, we also addressed a security point within our internal Plan – security across our country, in every region, in every community. This is fundamental. A safe space that every person needs. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine have developed some good solutions. We will definitely implement everything. We have already addressed points related to energy – everything has been prepared in detail – as well as armaments, including our own production and cooperation with allies. There are ten points in total, which will be presented next week, and for each point, together with Ukrainian civil society, together with everyone ready to contribute rational ideas, together with business, we will prepare a foundational, doctrinal document for Ukraine, for our resilience. With specific annexes. Step by step. Outlining how we will harness our internal capacities to secure a Ukrainian victory, so that we may rightly claim that word – victory. Each one of us – every Ukrainian. Millions who dream of ending this war in a way that is just for Ukraine and who work and fight toward that goal.
Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report. As always, this is how the day begins. Not only the Donetsk region, but also the Kupyansk direction, where our warriors performed very effectively. I’m grateful to everyone for their resilience. Southern directions. The Kursk operation. I am proud of all our people, every unit holding their positions and giving Ukraine the opportunity to convince the world that people must prevail. This is exactly what Ukraine is fighting for.
Thank you to everyone who helps! Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
Russian aggression in Ukraine killed a Ukrainian combat medic Mariia-Khrystyna Dvoinik during her evacuation mission.
“She loved Ukraine, dreaming of its restoration after victory,” wrote the Hospitallers Battalion, where she served.
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 6:42 PM
Let us keep the Defenders of Ukraine in our prayers.
RIP – Mykola Yavorskyi, Mykhailo Kulyniak (52), Oleksandr Patsalov (27), Armenian fighter Karen Khachatrian
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived… and now we lie
In Flanders fields#LetUkraineStrikeBackNow
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 1:04 AM
💔 Today in Kryvyi Rih, there was a funeral of mother, Olena Kulyk, and her three children: ten-year-old Kirylo, two-year-old Demyd, and two-month-old Ulyana.
🤬 They were killed by a Russian missile on November 11.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 6:27 AM
#UkrainianView
— Roman Yeremenko (@roalyr.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 3:54 PM
Germany:
Scholz is doubling down that he is not going to deliver any German cruise missiles to Ukraine.
He is in full election mode to appease not only Russia, but also his SPD base. He didn’t learn anything from the past and it is good that his time will be up in a few months.
— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:45 PM
Imagine the level of prosperity that Germany will have if Ukraine falls as a result of such a myopic policy and Russia moves against Europe.
Many will terribly regret not taking a chance to secure peace much easier by helping Ukraine win, but Scholz will not be there to suffer the consequences.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:51 PM
In other words:
‘Germany’s Russia support came in exchange for our country’s prosperity at the cost of Ukrainian lives and freedom.‘— Jessica Berlin (@berlinbridge.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:31 PM
Everywhere in Ukraine:
Since Moscow first employed Shaheds in October 2022, these killer drones have contributed to the deteriorating mental health of Ukrainians, and the destruction of critical infrastructure and homes, putting an additional burden on the Ukrainian military tasked with the defense of the Ukrainian skies.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 14, 2024 at 4:26 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Marharyta Koldanova was standing at a bus stop in a residential area in Kyiv when a sudden loud noise went off, prompting her to take out a tourniquet from her bag and prepare to quickly apply it in case she got injured by an aerial attack.
“I was overwhelmed with adrenaline and stress,” Koldanova told the Kyiv Independent.
The air raid alarm that usually alerts Ukrainians of a threat of a Russian drone or missile strike wasn’t on. The sound she heard wasn’t a weapon exploding but the noise coming from a local thermal power plant — a regular buzz for a big city like Kyiv.
Yet for Koldanova, whose daily life has been disrupted by Russian aerial attacks for 2.5 years, even a regular loud noise comes with an immediate sense of danger.
Like thousands of other Ukrainians struggling with mental health issues due to the war, Koldanova has developed a hypersensitivity to sounds, anxiety, and insomnia. Since Russian strikes happen most often at night, they have been robbing millions of Ukrainians of proper sleep.
To target cities far from the front line, Russia has been employing a combination of missiles and drones, often launched in large-scale coordinated attacks. However, in the past couple of months, Moscow’s forces have changed tactics, launching barrages of drones nearly every night, and largely avoiding missiles.
In October alone, over 2,000 drones attacked Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military. These drone barrages aim to exhaust and locate the country’s air defenses ahead of a larger campaign of strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter, experts say.
Though not as destructive as missiles and bombs, drone attacks often stretch on for many hours and can be launched far more frequently since drones are cheap and easy to produce.
For long-range drone strikes, Russia’s weapon of choice is the Iranian-designed Shahed, which can travel up to 2,500 kilometers, reaching any settlement in Ukraine.
Since Moscow first employed Shaheds in October 2022, these killer drones have contributed to the deteriorating mental health of Ukrainians, and the destruction of critical infrastructure and homes, putting an additional burden on the Ukrainian military tasked with the defense of the Ukrainian skies.
“If I fall asleep before the air alarm, I often wake up to explosions, panicking and confused,” Koldanova, a 32-year-old copywriter, told the Kyiv Independent, describing how her nights have been lately. “If the alarm starts when I’m awake, I can’t go to sleep until the threat is over. I just sit and wait for the all-clear.”
Sometimes, this wait stretches until early morning.
Living close to a Kyiv air defense site, Koldanova hears explosions close-by and sees flashes of the defense system firing at drones and missiles from her window. She’s too afraid to spend 10 minutes to run to a nearby shelter, fearing debris could fall nearby and injure her, so she hides in her corridor with her dog, watching red flashes and listening attentively to every sound.
“Every time I hear an explosion, I think how close it was to me and whether (the next one) could hit my house.”
Running on just 3-4 hours of sleep, Koldanova finds it hard to concentrate at work the next day. Many Ukrainians struggle with low productivity, as experts say sleep deprivation hampers decision-making, memory, and performance.
“Sleep deprivation makes even minor dangers feel extreme, creating the feeling that danger is literally at every step and not letting you relax for a moment,” explains Nika Bielska, a sleep consultant and geneticist. “This makes it difficult to study, work, and just live your everyday life, strains family relationships, and heightens the risk of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder).”
Already in fall 2022, over 70% of Ukrainian business leaders cited the deterioration of employee mental health as the main challenge for their companies. Fatigue and tension are now the dominant feelings for Ukrainians, according to a June 2024 survey by Gradus Research.
Chronic sleep loss can lead to anxiety and depression and increase risks for physical health, including cancer and diabetes, says Volodymyr Voloshyn, a Ukrainian crisis psychologist and the head of the Institute of Health Psychology. He suggests Russia may be using sleep deprivation to make Ukrainians more vulnerable to manipulation and disinformation, important tools of modern warfare.
Bielska adds that the longer sleep deprivation persists, the harder it becomes to relax, creating a “vicious cycle” of lack of sleep.
Even when Kyiv gets a rare quiet night, free from Russian attacks, any loud noise can deprive local residents of sleep due to the developed hypersensitivity to sounds.
”When there’s a thunderstorm and rain, I can’t sleep,” says Koldanova. “I wake up panicking and check the news to make sure it was not an explosion.”
Much, much more at the link.
I’m guessing that the below was either in Kyiv or Lviv:
A Russian missile strike damaged the MasterChef filming set in Ukraine—but thankfully, there were no injuries.
Despite the war, the team at STB channel has pushed through, adding shelters and generators to keep filming the reality show loved by many.
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 14, 2024 at 1:42 PM
Kyiv:
We’re going to have a Christmas tree in downtown Kyiv again, yay!
Not as grandiose as what we had before 2022 and hopefully funded by volunteering businesses instead of city budget… but kids (and not only kids) need to feel the Christmas miracle even in the time of war.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 7:02 AM
Terny Donetsk Oblast:
Russian soldiers shot dead an unarmed woman walking on the street of the front-line village of Terny in Donetsk Oblast, the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on Nov. 14.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 14, 2024 at 9:11 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian soldiers shot dead an unarmed woman walking on the street of the front-line village of Terny in Donetsk Oblast, the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on Nov. 14.
Numerous cases of Russian troops murdering or abusing civilians have surfaced since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, underscoring the humanitarian disaster wrought by the war.
Pictures shared on the prosecutor’s office’s Telegram channel show a woman in a pink jacket walking on the outskirts of the village, with a subsequent picture showing her lying on the ground with her face in the mud.
“Russian soldiers saw a local resident walking down the street along the houses destroyed by the enemy. The soldiers opened fire on the woman. A shot from small arms killed the civilian,” the statement read.
According to the prosecutors, the killing took place on Nov. 10. Ukrainian authorities have launched a war crime investigation.
Terny is a front-line village in northern Donetsk Oblast, some 35 kilometers (20 miles) northeast of the city of Sloviansk.
Russia has committed 137,000 war crimes in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the United for Justice conference in Kyiv in September.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced in June that it had issued arrest warrants for Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, for intentionally harming civilians and other charges related to Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The court also issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2023 over the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
The Kyiv Independent has a documentary on the Russians terrorizing, brutalizing, and killing Ukrainians in Russian occupied Ukraine:
Kupiansk:
Russian forces have entered parts of Kupiansk, a city liberated by Ukraine in 2022. DeepState analytics mark one of city street as a ‘grey zone.’ While local authorities report halting the advance, this key hub, 100km from Kharkiv, faces the threat of renewed occupation.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 3:40 AM
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attempts to break into the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast; The Defense Ministry plans to finalize a bill defining the procedure and conditions for discharging military personnel from service by Dec. 18 this year; and more.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 14, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attempts to break into the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrinfrom reported on Nov. 14, citing the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
“All Russian attacks in this direction were successfully repelled. Russian invaders failed to enter Kupiansk. The city is under the control of Ukraine’s Armed Forces,” General Staff spokesperson Andrii Kovalev told Ukrinform.
The statement came after the crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState had claimed late on Nov. 13 that some Russian units, including armored vehicles and a tank, managed to enter Kupiansk but soon suffered heavy losses.
Kupiansk is a key logistics and railway hub in the eastern part of Kharkiv Oblast. With several highways and five railway lines running through it, the town was briefly occupied by Russian forces before it was liberated during a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the autumn of 2022.
According to Kovalev, Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses in the area at around 2:30 p.m. local time on Nov. 13, attacking in four waves. They employed 15 vehicles, including tanks and armored fighting vehicles.
The spokesperson said that Russian troops wore Ukrainian uniforms, which violates international rules of warfare. Ukrainian defenders destroyed “all Russian armored vehicles” and a “significant part of manpower,” he added.
Russian troops ramped up their efforts near Kupiansk in early September and are now only 2 3 kilometers from the city’s industrial outskirts in the northeast. Moscow’s forces are attempting to find a footing for a final push to reach the Oskil River, dividing the city into two, before winter sets in.
During his evening address, President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the soldiers defending the front line and spoke of Russia’s “attempts to expand their offensive, especially in the Kupiansk direction.”
“I am grateful to all our units for their resilience,” he said.
Even if Russian units have not yet entered the town, regular shelling of the city creates increasingly hard conditions for the locals to continue with their lives, with no gas, water, or electricity in the city’s eastern bank.
Capturing the city would widen the north-to-south supply route from Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, fuelling their attempt to take the entire Donbas region.
Kharkiv:
“Roman Dudin, former head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in Kharkiv Oblast, accused of state treason, has been released on bail from detention.”
Just one question: WTF?— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 11:59 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Frontline report: Ukraine traps Russian forces in Kursk direction after calculated withdrawal
Ukrainian forces allowed Russian mechanized units to advance through lowland settlements before cutting them off from high ground positions in forests and hills
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 5:24 AM
From Euromaidan Press:
On 14 November, the biggest news came from the Kursk direction.
Here, Ukrainians perfectly executed a complex tactical maneuver to eliminate the Russian spearhead while maintaining their combat potential, leading to the complete encirclement of the Russian assault group.
The Russian relief operation launched on the Ukrainian flanks also ended in disaster, leading to Russian casualties soaring to an all-time high.
As you may remember from the last report, Ukrainians completely dismantled the Russian mechanized assault on Malaya Loknya, destroying 15 armored vehicles with mines and drones. Still, Russians managed to penetrate quite deep into Ukrainian territory, driving through multiple towns in the northern part of the salient.
Ukrainians realized that holding on to settlements in the face of such a large Russian mechanized attack would be costly to Ukrainian forces. This led to Ukrainians temporarily abandoning the settlements and returning to better positions.
If we look at the topographic map, we can see that the road and settlements leading to Malaya Loknya run through the lowlands, surrounded by forests and hills to the west and east. Ukrainians withdrew from the settlements to the high ground, letting the Russian convoy pass through and allowing it to be destroyed by previously placed mines and FPV drones.
Russians dropped off several smaller infantry groups in the settlements they drove past. The Russian plan was for these groups to provide an all-around defense and secure the road for additional reinforcements to pass through in the future. However, these groups were left vulnerable without support after the mechanized forces were destroyed. Meanwhile, Ukrainians had saved their combat power by not engaging the Russian assault outright and were in a much stronger position in the forests and on top of the hills.
As Russians did not have enough soldiers to cover the settlements completely, Ukrainians rapidly moved into the gaps and encircled the Russian soldiers stuck in the settlements. Russians realized the disaster unfolding and sent several armored vehicles to break through to the encircled soldiers.
This time, Ukrainians did not allow the Russians to pass through, as geolocated footage shows several Russian armored vehicles being destroyed by Ukrainian defenders. Russian military analysts later confirmed that no reinforcements were able to break through to their soldiers and that these groups had been fully cut off for days, relying solely on supplies dropped from drones.
Russians increased the pressure on the Ukrainian western flank to salvage the situation and turn the tide of the battle, launching five waves of mechanized assaults on Novoivanovka in only one day. Here is where Ukrainians inflicted massive casualties on Russian forces, destroying 18 out of 29 Russian armored vehicles in the process.
Much, much more at the link including maps.
Ukraine’s Kursk incursion exposed Russia’s weaknesses, forcing it to deploy troops, seek North Korean help, and bomb its own settlements—yet Ukrainians still hold territory.
Here’s how it happened.
WATCH: youtu.be/QZ_9NQj96qA
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 14, 2024 at 9:08 AM
Here’s the full video:
Rivnopol, Donetsk Oblast:
Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial Systems Forces held back massive Russian assault near Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast
Located within Vremyevsky ledge, Rivnopil serves as a critical point for controlling logistics & military movements in the area
📹 operativnoZSU— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 6:10 PM
Kurakhove:
☠️💥🔥 Unsuccessful Russian attack near Kurakhove, – 79th Brigade
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 7:05 AM
The Pokrovsk direction:
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Bradley in Pokrovsk direction is blown up by an anti-tank mine, but continues to fire at Russian positions
🙏 When trying to leave the battlefield, Bradley ran into another TM-62, the crew survived and left the IFV.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 8:41 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets and videos, so here’s the next episode of his cartoon series:
Open thread!
rekoob
Thank you, Adam, for all your work. Germany’s response still saddens me; it’s as though the past 35 years never happened.
dr. luba
@rekoob: And how many of the projected 10 million refugees, should Ukraine fall, will end up in Germany? Certainly that won’t be great for their economy…..
Harry
Thank you for using Bluesky instead of the bad place.
rekoob
@dr. luba: Precisely — and beyond, of course. Refugees have been an issue in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Until recently (call it the last decade or so) not as prevalent in Europe and the Americas. That is likely to change.
KatKapCC
Scholz sucks. What an embarrassment.
Jay
Thank you, as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@dr. luba: At least 2 million. Which is what Putin wants as it will create the opportunity for the AfD to come to power demagoguing the flow of refugees as an invasion. Just as he and his people were able to facilitate with the Syrian Civil War refugees, the Libyan Civil War refugees, the Georgian guest workers, etc.
Adam L Silverman
@Harry: You’re welcome.
Gin & Tonic
Adam, the other day you recommended a couple of WWI books. Just curious if you’ve ever read John Schindler’s Fall of the Double Eagle? Yes, I know he’s an asshole, but he’s reputed to be a good historian.
wombat probability cloud
No need for a response: Thank you Adam!
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Never read it.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks.
YY_Sima Qian
Dara Mascot just came back from a visit to Ukraine:
YY_Sima Qian
Jeffrey Lewis does not believe Ukraine can surreptitiously develop nukes w/in a short amount of time, primarily due to difficulties enriching Uranium or Plutonium, especially when that infrastructure is likely to come under Russia attack.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Threadreader rollup for that interesting Jeffrey Lewis thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1856965582857671061.html
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
NutmegAgain
@rekoob: Not an excuse, because there is none, for Scholz’s position. It totally sucks. However, a touch of explanation: Scholz is out on his ass as of February. His governing coalition has already collapsed (the equivalent of the Libertarian party withdrew from the coalition.) Cross currents in German domestic policies include some stuff that for those of us who haven’t lived in the shadow of the Soviet/Russian bear, well, they don’t make sense. It still doesn’t help on the ground with helping the Ukrainians, but I suspect that’s where it’s coming from.
Jay
@NutmegAgain:
Europe made many many fortunes off of ruZZia in the late 90’s and early ‘Aughts.
Cheap oil and gas, Oligarchs buying property, art, etc at exorbitant prices, selling back Western tech and goods at major mark ups.
It was a Gold Rush.
If this pesky Ukraine/Georgia problem would go away, the “good times” will come back.
Tractarian
Every day. 995 days. I feel like I’m having a stroke