(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. We did an 8th of a mile walk this morning, which is her longest since starting chemo. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations for her chemo.

Second, I am still fried. Though less so than yesterday. I’m just going to run through the basics again tonight.

Air raid alerts are up over half of Ukraine as of 7:25 PM EST/2:25 AM local time in Ukraine.

The glide bomb strikes have begun (8:05 PM EST/3:05 AM local time in Ukraine):

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ the city is under the russian glide bomb attack right now ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 8:04 PM

And the Russian drones are swarming.

More russian drones incoming to Kharkiv ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 6:53 PM

For those of you on BlueSky looking for Ukrainian accounts to follow, someone created a starter pack:

If you want to follow some lovely Ukrainians on Bluesky, this is the list i have put together❤️
go.bsky.app/8iJqzrP

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 11:26 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Every Day, Ukrainians Prove with Their Courage, with Their Resilience That They Can Stop Russia – Address by the President

16 November 2024 – 15:49

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just met with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan: he is on a visit to Ukraine. And what’s important is that this is his first visit to another country immediately after the new Japanese Government was appointed – a visit to Ukraine. This is symbolic – in terms of our relations, Ukraine and Japan, – and very practical: this war in Europe is now decisive in many ways for the whole world.

I thanked Mr. Minister and all of Japan for the support they have provided to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the full-scale war – twelve billion dollars. Japan is a true leader in Asia when it comes to defending the rules-based international order and, quite simply, human life. We also discussed that North Korea has now become Russia’s accomplice and is helping Putin in this illegal war. I informed him about the North Korean military’s activities in the Kursk region, about all the threats posed by Pyongyang and Moscow’s cooperation. Russia is training North Korea in modern warfare, and this can cause a much wider destabilization. We must counter this together and with all our other partners.

We have a new support package from Japan. Of course, we talked with the Japanese Foreign Minister about strengthening sanctions against Russia, about our economic cooperation with Japan, about reconstruction and about ways of bringing a just peace closer. We are also preparing for a conversation with the new Prime Minister of Japan.

I also held another meeting today regarding the preparation of our internal Resilience Plan – a point on our Heroes Policy. The meeting was quite extensive – not just the Ministry of Veterans Affairs. All kinds of Government officials. Many aspects. And it is very important that the state’s decisions maintain at least the same level of concreteness. Concrete programs that work. Concrete support measures. Concrete things regarding the remembrance of the war and the heroic feat of the Ukrainian people. And concrete proposals for the post-war period for our warriors, who have proven to be the most powerful force in Europe, capable of defending their home and all of Europe.

And this is just one of the many aspects in which Ukraine’s internal Resilience Plan is intertwined with the Victory Plan that we have presented to our partners and that only our partners can implement. Every day, Ukrainians prove with their courage, with their resilience that they can stop Russia. Courage and resilience are also required from our partners.

And a few other things. Today is the Day of Radio, Television, and Communications Workers. And I am deeply grateful to everyone who keeps all of us in Ukraine, and the wider Ukrainian community around the world, connected through information, emotions, communication, and, most importantly, the shared understanding that Ukraine exists and will always exist.

I am grateful to all of our people who, even in the darkest moments, ensure that Ukrainians have the opportunity to talk to their families and hear how Ukraine is doing, how it is fighting, what Ukraine is doing, what Ukraine is striving for. No one in Ukraine should feel alone when we are all united – including through information, including through communication, including through Ukrainian emotion – through the feeling that we will overcome everything.

And today I also met with Ukrainian students – with representatives of student self-government from all regions of Ukraine – on the eve of Student’s Day. I thanked them for being in Ukraine, for taking such an active role, and I wish that all our young people, all our future generations, could realize themselves in Ukraine – in a peaceful, secure and independent state.

I thank everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also sat for an interview with Ukrainian Radio:

President Zelensky spoke to Ukrainian Radio, mentioning four types of missiles being tested. He highlighted that Ukraine is one of the strongest and most advanced armies globally, with impressive external funding and internal budget for developing new technologies.

Full piece: t.me/wartranslate…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 7:30 AM

Here’s the full video:

“Your country, my choice” from the creators of “your body, my choice”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 10:52 AM

Here is why any peace deal with Putin is going to be very difficult to achieve. He is not merely interested in territorial gains or a no NATO pledge.

These are the demands I would expect him to make in any future negotiation:
– Partial Ukrainian disarmarment (a demand in the Istanbul 2022 draft)

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@dmitri.silverado.org) November 16, 2024 at 6:19 PM

– Political changes (to make it easier to influence Ukraine’s politics going forward)
– No Western alliance membership (likely not just no NATO, but also no EU – the tearing up of the EU association agreement is what triggered the 2014 Maidan movement)

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@dmitri.silverado.org) November 16, 2024 at 6:19 PM

– Giving up the rights to Russian-occupied territory
– Lifting of major Western sanctions against Russia
– Giving up on war crimes investigations

Most of these would be extremely difficult for Ukraine to agree to (rightly so, as it would effectively mean a political surrender)

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@dmitri.silverado.org) November 16, 2024 at 6:19 PM

Rolling Stone reports another important result of whatever the President-elect eventually comes up with, if he actually does come up with something and his Ukraine peace plan isn’t just infrastructure week:

The policy turnaround in Ukraine between Biden and Trump is also being closely observed by other American allies. Hawks in some countries, like Poland, see a strategic imperative in the long-term acquisition of nukes, while others — like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia — are judged to be capable of acquiring nuclear weapons in a short timespan. All of these U.S. allies are signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty — which prevents the spread of nuclear weapons — and have previously felt no need to develop a weapons program for a variety of reasons, including the deterrent effect of America’s “nuclear security umbrella.”

With America turning inward, that umbrella seems to offer less protection than it used to.

Mykola Bielieskov, a security researcher at Ukraine’s National Institute for Security Studies, asserts that allowing a nuclear power like Russia to seize the territory of a non-nuclear power like Ukraine with nuclear threats signals an “end of nuclear non-proliferation. Period.”

Some people imagine Russia’s war of extermination in Ukraine as a Superbowl game or something like that, as if the worst thing that could happen as a result of Ukraine’s surrender is Ukrainians just driving home mad and frustrated.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 1:53 PM

Germany:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin opens a “Pandora’s box,” potentially leading to “other conversations and other calls,” President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in his evening address on Nov. 15.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 15, 2024 at 2:17 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin opens a “Pandora’s box,” potentially leading to “other conversations and other calls,” President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in his evening address on Nov. 15.

Earlier today, Scholz spoke with Putin for the first time in nearly two years. The German chancellor condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine, urged Putin to withdraw his troops, and discussed potential talks with Kyiv.

Scholz had informed Zelensky in advance of his intention to call Putin. Zelensky reportedly responded, “This will just make Putin feel that the isolation is decreasing,” according to Suspilne, citing an undisclosed source in the Presidential Office.

In his evening address, Zelensky criticized any negotiations that could ease Russia’s isolation without meaningful outcomes. “It is extremely important for Putin to loosen his isolation, Russia’s isolation, and to conduct ordinary negotiations that will not result in anything — as he has been doing for decades,” Zelensky said.

“This has allowed Russia to change nothing in its police, to do nothing in essence, and this is exactly what led to this war.”

Zelensky also reiterated that there would be no “Minsk-3,” referencing the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which proposed creating autonomous zones in Russian-occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but excluded mention of occupied Crimea.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry also expressed concerns over the Scholz-Putin call, stating that such lengthy conversations have been a tool Putin has exploited for over 20 years, now providing him hope for easing his international isolation.

“Even if the German chancellor did not express any positions contradicting Ukraine’s stance, conversations with the Russian dictator do not add value in achieving a just peace,” the ministry said in a statement.

At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine and Russia held talks in Istanbul in March 2022, but the negotiations were eventually abandoned after Ukrainian retook the north of the country and mass war crimes were discovered in the liberated areas.

In comments to Ukraine’s Peace Summit in June this year, Zelensky said the Istanbul talks failed because of the Russian side’s “ultimatums.”

North Korea:

“North Korea provided 50 domestically produced 170mm M1989 self-propelled howitzers and 20 updated 240mm MLRS that can fire standard rockets and guided ones” – Financial Times.
www.ft.com/content/83ad…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 10:03 AM

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have completed the second part of their assessment of Russia’s problems acquiring parts for the Su-57:

16h

The second part of Frontelligence Insight’s investigation, based on leaked emails and documents provided by the Ukrainian Cyber Resistance, reveals new details about Russia’s 2022 struggles to produce critical Su-57 components due to reliance on Western parts. 🧵Thread with investigation details:

2/ In the first part of our investigation, we examined the correspondence between Almaz-Antei’s affiliate “Red Banner” and Joint Stock Company “Mikropribor” discussing how a critical component, the MPPU-50, put state contracts for Su-57 production at risk

x.com/Tatarigami_U…

x.comx.com

3/ As we discovered, the MPPU-50 module is used in the L-band antenna system (N036L-1-01) for the radar complex of the Sh-121 weapon control system on Su-57. The leaked documents reveal a decision to expand production to additional facilities to fulfill the contract.

ALT

4/ Frontelligence Insight found that the Research Institute “Mikropribor” agreed with two facilities, “Zavod Mikropribor” and “Krasnoye Znamya,” to duplicate the production of the MPPU-50 module.

5/ The agreement between United Aircraft Corporation, Tikhomirov Scientific Research Institute, and the Research Institute “Mikropribor” shows that the MPPU-50 is part of the “Megapolis” project (the 2nd phase of the Su-57 modernization)

6/ One of the emails between a Mikropribor employee and Alexandr Mishchenko – later identified as the Chief Engineer of the Mikropribor Research Institute, included an Excel document with detailed information about the MPPU-50, most notably the critical foreign components.

7/ The Excel document reveals that the MPPU-50 module relies heavily on various components, including microchips and circuit board elements. These parts are sourced from manufacturers in Japan, the United States, India, China, and Germany.

8/ Our team assesses that nearly all these components are used in civilian and dual-use electronics, making it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to prevent Russia from acquiring them. These parts can be easily purchased online and delivered to Russia through third countries

9/ Sanctions are effective, forcing Russia to search for these parts, likely at higher costs. However, since these components are easily acquired and transported, the West must reassess its ability to use sanctions as a deterrent and evaluate what they can achieve during the war

10/ Another clear signal is that Russia has been unable to establish its own semiconductor or circuit board production. The war is unlikely to change this, as it not only requires production volumes that Russia’s economy can’t support but also needs experienced professionals

11/ Despite Russia’s boastful claims of a self-sufficient military-industrial complex that can rely solely on Russian and Chinese parts, the reality is that modern weapons production in Russia is nearly impossible without Western components in its electronics.

12/ Maintaining sanctions against companies such as Tikhomirov Scientific Research Institute, Almaz-Antei, Sukhoi, Plant Mikropribor, Guskov Research Institute, and RedBanner are mandatory to make it more difficult for Russia to quickly rebuild its modern military capabilities.

13/ Thank you for reading our report. Please don’t forget to help us increase awareness and extend our reach: like, retweet, and comment on the first message of the thread to boost visibility.

Speaking of logistics and acquisitions issues:

The entire Russian assault group uses exclusively light unarmored civilian vehicles. I think I’ve never seen anything like this before. t.me/SBUkr/13394

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 6:51 PM

Assault group of 7 Russian infantry, 5 in the trunk, 2 in the cabin, on an unarmored civilian car hit by FPV drone.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 7:12 PM

I expect this is the result of not having enough armored personnel carriers or even up armored technicals.

Not really sure where in Ukraine this is:

Russian BUK air defence system destroyed by Ukrainian heavy night bomber drone.
t.me/Klymenko_MVS…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 8:22 AM

Tavriyah Village, Zaporizhzhia front:

A few hours ago, HIMARS struck a concentration of Russian infantrymen in the area of ​​Tavriya village, Zaporizhzhia front. The work of the 15th separate brigade of artillery reconnaissance “Black Forest” and aerial reconnaissance of the 128th Brigade.
t.me/gnilayachere…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 4:38 PM

Obligatory!

The Pokrovsk front:

Magyar’s Birds are on the hunt!

1/2 On the night of November 15-16, Magyar’s Birds successfully destroyed a Russian Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare system valued at $200 million in the Pokrovske sector. The attack appears to have been carried out using a heavy drone, likely of the Vampire type…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 4:54 PM

2/2 According to Magyar, it had been two years since they last encountered such a system, and he described its destruction as a remarkable stroke of luck.

Full 3-minute video with subtitles is here: t.me/wartranslate…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 4:54 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is the next episode in his official cartoon series:

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