Donald Trump's "landslide" victory was secured by votes equal to the population of Fargo, North Dakota. Add up all the rest of the states that flipped from 2024 — and Kamala Harris only fell short of a “Biden-esque national landslide” by about 300,000 votes.
www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/the-narrow…— Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 4:48 PM
Dana Houle, one of my favorite political commentors, linked to this — Garrett M. Graff on “How to think about Donald Trump’s narrow, narrow victory”:
… The most important and least important headline of the weekend was that as the final votes of 2024 continue to be counted, Donald Trump slid beneath 50 percent of the popular vote. With about 152 million votes counted, and more still to come, Donald Trump is sitting just a tiny bit below 50 percent of that total…
And yet, it’ll be a reshaping and a path that a majority of voters who showed up for the election victory actually opposed. For all the talk of the “country moving right,” by almost every vote tally the nation has voted more Democratic over the last generation than it has Republican. Here’s a stunning way to think about it: No American born after 1987 had ever voted in an election where the Republican won the popular vote. Now they have—but barely…
Donald Trump’s election the first time in 2016 was the result of just 80,000 votes across three states — just six-hundredths of one percent of the race’s 137 million votes. That time around, his winning margin was just 10,704 votes in Michigan, 46,765 in Pennsylvania, and 22,177 in Wisconsin. Had those votes shifted or had 80,001 more voters in those states turned out for Hillary, President Clinton would have likely filled out a more liberal Supreme Court during her term and Roe would still be the law of the land, probably for a generation.
The winning margin in the electoral college this time around appears like it’s going to be about 130,000 votes—so bigger than 2016, in one sense, but Trump’s popular vote victory will rank as one of the tightest in modern US history. We’re still waiting for final counts, but it appears Wisconsin’s margin will be a difference of about 16,000 votes shifting; Pennsylvania about 72,000 voters; Michigan about 41,000. Even as it is, in neither Wisconsin nor Michigan does Trump appear to win a majority of votes.
Put that margin up against the idea that nationally nearly five times as many Americans — 634,858 voters — voted for some guy named Chase Oliver, the Libertarian candidate for president. (Or heck: Both Jill Stein and RFK Jr. each tallied about 750,000 votes nationally.)…
Add up all the rest of the states that flipped from 2024 — Arizona, with a margin of about 93,500 votes, Nevada and its 23,000 vote margin, and Georgia, with its 58,400 vote-margin — and Kamala Harris only fell short of a “Biden-esque national landslide” by about 300,000 votes.
If, across those states voters equal roughly to the population of Greensboro, North Carolina, had turned out for Harris instead, Elon Musk would be sweating his future defense contracts and Pete Hegseth would be railing about Harris’s new Cabinet nominations from the anchor desk of Fox News, rather than talking about inheriting the leadership of the Pentagon…
It’s worth remembering that many titanic recent elections are, examined up close, quite narrow. Gerald Ford’s popular vote loss in 1976 was just 1,683,000 votes, about the population then of Detroit, the nation’s fifth-largest city. Nixon lost to Kennedy by just 113,000 votes; in 1968, he turned around and won against Hubert Humphrey by just 500,000 votes, about seven-tenths of one percent of the national popular vote. Nixon was seen as a huge loser after 1960, and history remembers Humphrey today as a footnote; the trajectory and legacy of both men could have been very different.
And imagine how different our world would look today had just 538 more people voted for Al Gore in Florida in the 2000 election…
Nukular Biskits
Good evenin’, y’all
It’s been a long week already …
Manyakitty
@Nukular Biskits: that is a fact.
Nukular Biskits
Where’s everyone?
There is NO WAY I’ve beat Baud by more than three minutes!🤣
p.a.
A Republican victory by one vote is a mandate, and an utter repudiation of the left. A Democratic victory by one vote is a demand for bipartisanship, and probably the result of cheating.//s
Nukular Biskits
@Manyakitty:
It was non-stop from 6 to noon for me today … and that was even before I headed out to the ship I’m working on.
Lotsa technical stuff … outweighed by even more political nonsense (and I mean office & programmatic politics, not red v blue stuff).
It’s the politics that are going to be the deciding factor as to when I retire.
rekoob
In 2000, my then-wife and I voted in Santa Fe County, New Mexico. Statewide, Al Gore got 366 more votes than George W. Bush, winning the state for Gore.
Every vote counts.
As I wrote on my postcards this season, when YOU vote, we ALL win!
Nukular Biskits
@p.a.:
Seconded.
Professor Bigfoot
@p.a.: You jest… but you ain’t wrong.
Harrison Wesley
I don’t understand. Trump doesn’t have the full power of the presidency because he didn’t win in a landslide? What am I supposed to be taking away from this?
Sanjeevs
I was shown the inner workings of a troll farm seven or eight years ago. It was impressive for its time but very much only semi automated. They used real people for all the commenting and only used automation to boost their content and comments on social media.
Thus year i saw how they are run now. Pretty much fully automated. Comments are generated by AI. The software automatically cycles through numerous fake social media accounts posting comments. Scarily impressive.
Quinerly
Interesting tidbits in this piece.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/18/election-trump-information-podcasts-streaming
Jay
@Harrison Wesley:
Assorted “pundits” and MAGgoT’s are claiming that Dolt 47 has a “mandate”.
Danielx
Thanksgiving at sister-in-law’s place. I informed my spouse today that if one of those attending offers thanks for the election of Donald Trump I’m leaving, so we should take two cars. She thinks nobody there would be so ill advised to say a political prayer. I think most of those attending are evangelicals and/or (I suspect) Christian nationalists so there’s no telling what horseshit they will emit.
eta: I KNOW they’re evangelicals.
eemom
@Harrison Wesley:
As evidenced by the previous thread on the exact same topic, the collective delusion of many on this blog that the margin of his popular vote victory has jack shit to do with any of the horrors that are about to be wrought upon us all.
IOW, yeah, he has the full power of the presidency.
Nukular Biskits
@Sanjeevs:
Had my first real troll (well, it was possibly AI, but I’m not bother to distinguish) show up on my Bluesky account today in a reply.
Blocked his furry little ass to hell.
Mr. Bemused Senior
He thinks he already does. Witness the response to Biden’s decision on Ukraine.
Brant Lamb
You know, everybody keeps talking about how the election is only won in the swing states, that’s like saying that a marathon is won in the last 2 steps, and only those 2 steps count. What a load of horseshit. Every freaking vote counts. We need to start pounding the crowds with the truth, day in and day out. We’ve been letting the Rethugs yap constantly and they’ve convinced the low-hanging, fruits that Stumpy is everything to everybody, and the dumbasses voted for him and are now googling how they change their votes. We need to catch that moment of doubt BEFORE THEY VOTE. We’re going to have to hammer on their lies, each and every day.
If we can get broadcasting billboards (in small rooms, also called television) we could use Stumpy’s (or his equivalent’s) words directly against him, proving to those of short memory exactly what he says.
Quinerly
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
His true believers definitely think he won in a landslide and has a mandate.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Quinerly: alas, yes. We will have to disabuse them of that notion.
Sanjeevs
@Nukular Biskits: At this stage it’s impossible to tell, They used to be obvious signs like they were also promoting commercial products and lack of aging but now you can no longer tell.
Jay
@eemom:
The “mandate” myth is what his Maggots will use to justify everything illegal and unconstitutional due to gutless ReThug Reps and Congresscritters that allow it.
Quinerly
He sure is stupid. Venmo. Geez…..
“Two women interviewed by the House Ethics Committee about former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, President-elect Donald Trump’s to be attorney general, testified that Gaetz paid them directly and repeatedly in Venmo transactions for sex, and that those transactions were obtained by the committee, an attorney for the women told CBS News. The attorney, Joel Leppard, also said the women testified that Gaetz inquired in text messages about ‘party favors’ and ‘vitamins’ at upcoming parties, which was understood to be code for drugs.”
https://ssnews.page.link/HvvCDnu87sxpCxSM6
Danielx
@Harrison Wesley:
Seconded. The orange beast won, he will have the power to do pretty much whatever he wants. Further discussion of whether he has a “mandate” or not amounts to Villager/pundit navel gazing. Or wanking, as our Brit cousins would have it.
No disrespect to our beloved Anne Laurie intended or implied. I’m just in a pissed off mood this evening, for a variety of reasons.
prostratedragon
Bob “Butterbean” Love. In addition to his excellent play with the Bulls for many seasons, he overcame a lifelong stuttering problem to become a sought-after pubic speaker.
dc
I think the difference in votes matters to understand what happened, especially when and if there are more elections.
zhena gogolia
@Danielx: I get what you’re saying, but I intend to push back on the “landslide” language whenever I hear it, which is mostly from Democrats, since I don’t talk to any Republicans.
Harrison Wesley
Sorry, but I don’t think “mandate” is a magic word. He doesn’t need one, since the office of the presidency has accumulated way more power over the last few centuries than it should have. Yes, I’m a miserable old right-wing Democrat.
eemom
@Jay:
omfg. Once again, exactly what difference is that “justification” going to make when those in power will allow “everything illegal and unconstitutional” regardless??
And when have Maggots ever felt the need to “justify” anything beyond “because trump said so”?? Hello, January 6??
I can’t take this level of delusion. Need to get out of here for the sake of my blood pressure.
NotMax
@Danielx
Any skills at voluntary projectile vomiting?
:)
Splitting Image
@Harrison Wesley:
It’s less about what Trump has the power to do and more about the way the election was covered by the Liberal News Media ™ in the days after the election.
The leapt at the chance to declare Trump the Big Big Winner of a Big Big Majority and the election results as a Big Big Repudiation of the Democratic party and its entire platform.
What the Democrats need to do going forward is obviously dependent on the final results, and a lot of pundits were very eager to build a list of minority groups that the Democrats need to throw to the wolves to win back the votes of the “millions of Real Americans” who gave Trump his Big Big Win.
Pushing back against the pundits and their narrative is a good thing.
NotMax
@Harrison Wesley
Musk and Dolt 45 dining together at a secluded table at Mar-a-lago is a mandate.
//
eemom
@Danielx:
Thank you.
And I do mean disrespect to anyone who pushes this bullshit narrative.
Melancholy Jaques
So Trump’s win over Harris is pretty much like his win over Clinton.
I’m trying to think of what those two candidates had in common that might have led to such similar results. Health care plans? Positions on public education? Help me out here.
Steve LaBonne
@Splitting Image: Yes. The point of noting the narrowness of the margin is to fight the disempowering delusion that the country has made a dramatic lurch to the right. That leads to very bad analyses of where we need to go from here.
Jackie
President Biden is still prezidenting with a yuge FU to TCFG and MAGA Mike:
Anne Laurie
If nothing else, some consolation that it was a narrow sliver of our fellow voters who chose this monstrosity, not ‘more than half’. Makes a difference in mood, going forward.
Manyakitty
@Nukular Biskits: work environment makes such a difference.
Quinerly
@Anne Laurie:
Agree.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Yes. My mood isn’t very good at the moment but we must not give up. They don’t.
zhena gogolia
Lawrence Robbins, who represented Marie Yovanovich in her testimony at the impeachment and Christine Blasey Ford in her testimony about Brett Kavanaugh, has died. (NYT):
different-church-lady
It doesn’t change the practical results, but at least it makes them feel more explicable. It always felt like Trump could peel away enough votes, but the idea he had pulled so many away was where the real depression lay.
mrmoshpotato
@zhena gogolia: RIP
tobie
@Jackie: i really hope locals plaster the construction site with stickers saying “Thank you, Joe.” Do not let the Republican administration take credit for the way Biden and Democrats rescued the economy in 2021 from the abyss.
Jim Appleton
It’s just so disheartening that it all comes down to these razor-thin margins.
chrisanthemama
@Danielx: Invite Leslie Jones: Leslie Jones Stops Your Annoying Relatives from Ruining Thanksgiving | The Daily Show
Martin
@Harrison Wesley: The scale of the problem moving forward.
YY_Sima Qian
Immediate effects of Trump’s election:
Implications, by a former senior CIA analyst:
Jackie
@tobie: I so agree! TCFG is already taking credit for Biden’s economy and unfortunately the low information voters who voted for TCFG believe him.
I read somewhere today that the POLITICALLY AWARE voters voted for Harris. Sadly, they weren’t the majority of those who voted.
zhena gogolia
@Martin: Hi!
Melancholy Jaques
@Harrison Wesley:
My take away and the one I’m recommending others at least think about is that all the Sturm und Drang claiming that Democrats need to radically change who we are and what issues matter to us are bullshit and ought to be ignored.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@different-church-lady: I got the impression it was less he got people to peal away and more Trump got groups to vote who normally don’t, like inceals.
artem1s
Imagine if fucking O’Connor had let FL do an actual recount and hell maybe the whole country should have had a recount. may she rot in hell.
Ramona
@Harrison Wesley: agree about the ridiculous accrual of power to the executive branch!
AM in NC
@tobie: Yep, that’s what worries me. We (Dems) didn’t toot our own horns when these projects started coming on line before the election – now it’s all going to look like stuff Trump did unless WE get the truth out.
EVERY local official who is a Dem needs to remind voters who voted for and who voted against these projects at the national level EVERY TIME they are interviewed.
And yes, we, the PEOPLE, need to slap signs and stickers and flyers up all over projects like this reminding voters of this.
REPUBLICANS tried to kill this factory. DEMOCRATS got it built.
REPUBLICAN Votes: 0 DEMOCRATIC VOTES: 265
If a bunch of guerrilla signs like this started appearing, you can;t tell me it wouldn’t also get picked up by local media.
WE are going to have to start being more creative and more aggressive in our real-world (not media) messaging to get through to our fellow Americans.
Baud
@AM in NC:
I honestly see absolutely no evidence that tooting our own horn is something that’s seriously on the table. Even if the “establishment” did it, they’d spend half their time arguing within the party about whether and how they should do it.
b
That’s wrong. Gore didn’t need more votes. He just needed a not crooked SC to let the votes be counted.
ETA: instead of making up fake law