Starting to feel a lot better and would even put myself at around 65-70%. Went to go get a recliner off facebook market today for 125 bucks, drove 45 minutes, and the fucker stood me up. I still need a seat besides the one at my computer desk that is comfortable. Joelle loves the couch, but I can last about ten minutes on it before things hurt. Getting old sucks.
Here’s a fun story– a pig was running wild in Washington state and they named it Notorious P.I.G.
Somewhat related, I have become infatuated with hairless cats and oriental short hairs, and if you are ok with giving all your information to the chicoms, there is a tiktok account of a hairless cat named Nudicras who I follow. Here is the instagram.
Can you still say chicom? It’s just short for chinese communist, right? Or is that going to get me canceled? Fuck it, cancel me. I’m ready for it. I’ll fuck off somewhere and drive a school bus or something.
I’m trying to find the right balance between the existential fear i have for this upcoming government with finding productive things to do about it while not sending everyone into a froth. But I think an early marker is if they can not find a way to block Gaetz and Hegseth, there ain’t no cavalry coming ever. No one is gonna stop them from doing shit. The only thing that might slow things down is if the stupidity tanks the economy so bad that the cost of living becomes so unpleasant that the half of the country in the klan will pass up on their favorite past times of telling everyone how christian they are while watching the government brutalize and terrorize the people they hate- the poor, the brown, the immigrant. And then we have to hope there are still Democrats willing to run in 2026.
So that’s where I am mentally and why I have been loathe to post here because I don’t want to be told I am being a doomsayer or that I am right. Both options fucking blow.
War for Ukraine Day 999: Rolling Blackouts Return & Odesa Is Again in the Crosshairs
Martin
Comforting knowing the owner of the place feels the same way.
Old Dan and Little Ann
Year 2 of coaching bball started tonight.. 5th and 6th grade girls. It is super challenging trying to coach when it takes me 2 months to learn names.
DEBG
I just met Nudacris today. He’s a delightful little terror.
twbrandt
I’m right there with you.
YY_Sima Qian
This why a new Cold War (in a bid to sustain global primacy) is so conducive to the reactionary project domestically:
This is where so many of the ultra rightwing reactionary CTs & fearmongering converge.
sentient ai from the future
mr cole:
a thing i have found that focuses the mind is having a child that is on the front lines of this shit and very much aware of it.
while there’s no way to ensure you have a transgender child, especially at your advanced stage of decrepitude, i would submit that there is probably some kind of shelter or advocacy group in your area.
LGBT folks, and especially trans kids these days, are far more likely to be both runaways and “throwaways” meaning their shitbag bigot parents decide they wont love them as family anymore because of who they are.
these kids need homes and people who care about them and accept them for who they are.
i will research and follow up. there might be a preexisting group you can connect with.
SpaceUnit
I’m still a goddamn mess. Doing a little bit of lurking here on BJ, but I really can’t stomach any politics right now. Distracting myself with sports. Watching documentaries.
My feelings of betrayal and alienation by my country are profound. Not sure if I’ll feel like this is my home ever again.
On the plus side, I’m beginning the see and feel the results of my daily three hour workouts. So I guess there’s that.
Hope everyone here is well and doing better than I am.
Jackie
Yes. I’ve reached the “My give a damn is busted” stage.
If TCFG’s policies didn’t effect me and my family, I’d just sit back and watch the shitshow, but unfortunately as a senior dependent on SS and Medicare I’m probably screwed.
sentient ai from the future
here’s one:
https://www.aztypo.com/
i bet they would love any help you could offer
things like bringing pets for the kiddos to fawn over
your organizing-internet-jackals skills would almost certainly be appreciated too
no pressure, just throwing it out there as an option
narya
Sen. Warren on Maddow talking about the judicial positions—Dems are cranking through them despite R efforts to block was a nice nightcap.
Old Man Shadow
Still kind of in the mood of “Fuck the stupid assholes. I’ll take care of me and mine and any innocents I know or come across.”
sentient ai from the future
here’s another:
https://hycaz.org/
NutmegAgain
They could at least have found a humane shelter for the pig. That animal is terrified beyond measure when they grab it. Very upsetting. (Why yes, I am that softy.)
John Cole
@Martin: Everyone is raw and stressed and on a razor’s edge. We need to give people time and not rush things. We’ll pull it all together eventually.
I just gotta make sure that I don’t make things worse by scaring or freaking people out.
Joseph Patrick Lurker
Please don’t forget about Gabbard and RFK Jr.
There needs to be an all out war to prevent each of these ratfucking lunatics from getting confirmed.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Been telling people Trump would prioritize California over, say, Texas as his corporate supporters push back.
I’m also willing to be most of the tariffs don’t come to pass. Tariffs can be imposed without review by other branches, so it’s a perfect tool to shake down corporations for kickbacks.
Deporting Chinese nationals will have less impact on food prices – will annihilate the care service industry in major cities.
Rusty
@John Cole: Being up front that you’re having a hard time and not trying to freak people out is a good start. I’m trying to save my energy for when it will do some good. My getting wrapped around the axle now won’t do a damn biy of good for anyone.
Martin
@John Cole: Yeah, well, I got run off of here months ago. Not exactly a new feeling.
Fake Irishman
@John Cole:
Cosign these excellent thoughts Mr. Blogfather.
I’ve got a low-impact idea or two that might help us start to put things back together a bit. Might reach out to water girl if I can get off the deck (it’s grant writing season and my kids having been puking non-stop for a week. If Nov. 5 had turned out better, I’d be powering through, but I’m barely hanging on)
MobiusKlein
We started our resistance box last week – some cash, general emergency items. Next comes the Plan B / emergency contraceptives / narcan. Who knows what will be easy to get when some friend of a friend is in dire straits.
Also getting the earthquake kit planned, because we know the feds won’t help us enough. A kick in the pants to do that is OK.
Met some neighbors on a trash cleanup event. We are not giving up, but also not waiting for Gandalf to show up at dawn.
twbrandt
@Martin: I hope you come back, Martin. I’ve always looked forward to your comments.
Starfish (she/her)
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: All the people are bad. Some are just more obviously criminal than others.
I am hoping that many people are too incompetent to achieve the Trump agenda, whatever it may be.
Kayla Rudbek
Turning over the idea of horror story BEM alien invasion where half the world sells out to the invaders as I mentioned a few posts upstairs, and thinking that the BEMs may be more decent to women than human men are (which is probably half of the point of paranormal romance, women are choosing the bear shifters in many of these books). And thinking that designated soulmate could turn from romance to horror on a dime, because there’s no guarantee that your designated soulmate is a decent person.
Kayla Rudbek
@Martin: it will probably put quite a hit onto STEM graduate students as well.
Starfish (she/her)
@Kayla Rudbek: Chemistry departments are going to be wiped out.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Trump can impose tariffs, & then selectively crack down on corporations that inevitably try to evade tariffs. People have looked at the effect of Trump’s trade war w/ the PRC (& which Biden continued), the inflationary impact was less than expected/feared due to three reasons:
1) Exports bound for the US rerouted through 3rd countries (such as Vietnam) for transshipment/relabeling/final assembly to avoid the tariffs w/o reducing supply chain dependence on the PRC
2) Corporates lied on the invoice price of their direct imports from the PRC to reduce the tariff bill
3) The explosive rise in taking advantage of the de minimus limit, whereby packages < US$ 800 in declared value are not tariffed; I think the Biden Administration might have closed that loop hole
#2 is where the opportunity for graft lies.
beckya57
The pig was in my home town of Tacoma. Not my neighborhood, but saw the chase on the local news.
I’m coping by volunteering for Indivisible and the Sierra Club. I agree we’ll know a lot more after we see what the Senate does with these insane nominees. I’ve called my senators and asked that they oppose all of them. I take some comfort from being in a blue state. Our new governor, Bob Ferguson, was previously AG and filed a lot of lawsuits against TFG during the first term, so I’m pretty confident he won’t pull a Polis. What in the world was that about??? Blogfather, can you ask TaMara to enlighten us?
Starfish (she/her)
@John Cole: I am pretty sure you would try to play with the cute kitty.
Jay
@Starfish (she/her):
Naw, they will always have meth and fentanyl.
Peale
@YY_Sima Qian: yeah. Which is why unlike Martin I think huge tariffs are coming. Against all evidence, they think China has stationed an Army of special forces in the US. We should be so lucky that China has taken what would normally be its best trained, best armed and tactically important troops and disarmed them, dispersed them thinly thousands of miles away where they will have no hopes of resupply. I hadn’t heard this until recently.
Kayla Rudbek
@Starfish (she/her): and electrical engineering too
YY_Sima Qian
@Kayla Rudbek: There will be other initiatives to drive out Chinese international students, especially in the STEM fields. Trump will almost certainly relaunch the China Initiative (which Biden was slow to end) that had hounded ethnic Chinese academics & researchers, often w/ minimal evidence & low prosecutorial success, but nevertheless ruined reputations/careers & led to an exodus of ethnic Chinese academics/researchers from the US (most of them to the PRC). Late in Trump’s 1st term many of the über-hawks had already agitated for banning Chinese students from STEM fields, & some R states (such as FL) have already gone there.
The Biden Administration has also let the 4+ decade old agreement on scientific collaboration lapse. All of these actions will slow down scientific advancement in both countries, but come at a moment where the flow of scientific & technological knowledge has finally become a two way street.
Starfish (she/her)
@YY_Sima Qian: Banning international students from most things is stupid because international students are keeping these educational institutions afloat by paying more tuition than everyone else.
Sfinny
So things I plan to do just in case of anticipated problems:
Upgrade phone and work computer in December and January in case of tariffs.
Get my social security account ID working. Tried to get my account moved over earlier but it was a pain in the ass. Will try again.
Lucky for me it is a short list. Still so sad for everyone else that will experience so much worse.
YY_Sima Qian
@Peale: It’s been all over rightwing wing nuttosphere since Chinese migrants started to show up in increasing numbers along the US’ southern border w/ the end of COVID-19 travel restrictions.
Western MSM has largely reported this flow as driven by disillusionment w/ the state of the PRC’s economy (true for most of the migrants) & the increasingly hard authoritarian turn under Xi (there is some of that), but have largely ignored the fact that the larges & fastest growing non-LATAM source of migrants crossing the US’ southern border is actually India.
YY_Sima Qian
@Starfish (she/her): & the majority of international students, especially in STEM fields, would prefer to stay in the US if given the opportunity. Even if they ultimately go home to develop their careers & thrive, they tend to still prefer to collaborate w/ US based scientists, through networks they established while studying in the US.
Quiltingfool
@Martin: Hey, glad to see you! I appreciate your comments and I like reading different perspectives.
NotMax
@Joseph Patrick Lurker
With no disrespect toward efgoldman —
block ’em all.
;)
Kayla Rudbek
@YY_Sima Qian: and the thing is that Americans don’t study STEM in undergrad, so who’s going to replace the international students? The evangelicals can’t and won’t do math and science because it’s beaten out of them as kids, there probably aren’t enough Catholics with the math skills to replace all the international students (and many of the Catholics aren’t white enough for the MAGAts or will stick to medicine instead of other parts of STEM, pulling statistics on major for the Catholic colleges and universities would be interesting but I would bet that most of them are in liberal arts or business majors, at least that was my experience at Notre Dame and it’s much easier to get the BA and then a law degree or MBA and sell out to the right wing like Coathanger Barrett)
Quiltingfool
@Starfish (she/her): Oof, a bobcat! Some friends of mine raised a bobcat kitten (mother had been hit by a car). They had some experience with raising wild animals, (the husband worked for Missouri Conservation ) but normal people should not mess with wild babies.
I met the kitty bobcat, and it unnerved me. It isn’t a normal kitten. It had a very dominating personality. After a few months, they took it to a wildlife rehab center, thank goodness. Adult bobcats can be very challenging.
They also had a baby raccoon. The little shit nipped me on the hand, so I kept my distance! It, too, went to wildlife rehab.
I know people want to save wild babies, but they really need to hand them over to professional wildlife wranglers. Wild babies if not raised correctly lose their fear of humans and that is not a good thing. Let wild animals be wild.
YY_Sima Qian
@Kayla Rudbek: The reactionaries want to target the Chinese international students (& ethnic Chinese students) 1st, because of Cold War 2.0, & in their minds they will replace the Chinese w/ Indian students. After all, the religio-ethnonationalists in the US are simpatico w/ those in India.
Never mind that India is not producing nearly the same qty of STEM undergrads as compared to the PRC, & India has far fewer universities/colleges w/ world class STEM majors.
Well, until the nativists eventually shift their sights to the “godless” Indians. They will always need a foreign enemy to justify their oppression of domestic opposition & “out groups”.
Jay
@Peale:
It’s recycled crap, the hundreds of of thousands of Chinese troops back in 2020 were in Canada,
we still miss the economic stimulus and the better quality Chinese food.
Martin
@twbrandt: Well, two things really contributed to the problem:
It had certainly seemed to have reached a point that more people wanted me gone than here, and perhaps feelings might be a little different after the election. But mostly I lurk the front page, mostly to read Adam.
Ksmiami
@Martin: come back Martin.
Citizen Alan
@Starfish (she/her): yeah, it’s incredible to me that we’ve already reached the point where a good trump appointee would be one who is neither an obvious russian asset nor a rapist.
Martin
@Kayla Rudbek: Nah. My university had a larger share of Chinese students than pretty much any university, and I knew every undocumented student. None were Chinese.
That said, I’ve always told my kids to not stand in the line of fire, and if I were still working, I’d probably be looking to partner with other unis to survey high-income Chinese families to see if they were rethinking sending their kids to the US on visas to study when there are a lot of pretty decent options in other countries. I’d certainly be telling the administration to hold a spot in their thinking to anticipate a dramatic drop in international student enrollments – which we did see in the 2017 cycle even without the military being promised to look up everyone’s skirt.
Will note that international students are effectively a trade export from the US. It brings in a lot of foreign dollars. It’s a dumb thing to undermine.
SiubhanDuinne
@narya:
I was very happy to hear Professor Senator Warren talk about what Senate Dems are accomplishing. God forbid the media should share that kind of information.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: 3) is going to annihilate US retail even more than it already has. Retailers are going to pay tariffs that foreign drop-shippers on Amazon Marketplace, Temu, AliExpress, etc. will be able to avoid.
mrmoshpotato
OT – The Daily Show guest tonight is some fucker from the American Enterprise Institute.
Jon Stewart really needs to fuck off back to his horse farm.
dww44
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: One way to start now is to lobby Republican voters to push back on this tendency of the new Senate Majority to obey in advance by not pushing back against this whole recess appointment strategy by Trump to avoid any public scrutiny of his nominees.
Those voters need to pressure their Senators about their constitutional responsibility to “advise and consent”. Even if they cave and approve these nominations make them have a public questioning of the nominees. We’ve a couple months to build pressure on the GOP Senators. This is a place now to begin the work on saving our democracy.
Tenar Arha
I tried to watch the end of local news, and surprised myself yelling at the tv because they did that 🤬 “new norm,” but only since that stinker, where they called DJT, President ___ instead of the proper form of President Elect. GD news definitely needs to “get off my lawn!”
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Oh, absolutely. They almost universally seek out an extension to their student visa (J-1) to take a work internship, which they look to convert into a work visa.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: The flow of Chinese international students to the US has already declined pretty dramatically, due to both COVID-19 travel restrictions & due to heightened geopolitical tensions (& reports of rising Sinophobia), although top end talent still very much favor leading US institutions for graduate study.
On the de minimus rule, that is why the Biden Administration closed the loop hole, & Trump would have if Biden didn’t. Of course, closing the loop holes is neutral on PRC exports as it applies to everybody, but will have an inflationary effect in conjunction w/ the tariffs.
Martin
@Peale: Oh, I think he’ll try to impose big tariffs, and I think corporations will fold and pay him off to avoid them. It’s not that I don’t think Trump will do the worst thing, it’s that I’m equally confident that corporations will sell us out.
Kristine
Saw on iirc either Threads or Bluesky that Big Pharma isn’t happy about RFK Jr and has been sending out the lobbyists. It’s like rooting for Thanos to beat Hydra, but I really don’t want our government labs kneecapped given what may be coming down the pike.
Manyakitty
@mrmoshpotato: ugh. May his decline into obscurity happen sooner rather than later.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Yeah, I retired just as the first cycle was starting that would have showed the effects from Covid so my data knowledge largely ends right then.
Peale
@Martin: it depends on whether Trump carries out Biden’s announced plan to put the cost of paying the import duty on the customer.
Nettoyeur
@Kayla Rudbek: STEM degrees already pay better than most others. Reduce supply and watch those salaries climb further.
Martin
@Kristine: I think Dems need to take a step back and consider the opportunities that might be present here. RFK might have the wrong motives for taking big pharma down a peg, but they need to be taken down a peg. Since Dems seems to lack the capacity to tear an institution apart that is in need of tearing apart, maybe they can be more productive repairing the damage.
Similarly, I think Dems need to consider shifting some functions/energy from fed to state.
Peale
@Kristine: yeah. I’m here to protect things like vaccines and birth control. I’ll let big pharma take care of itself.
frosty
@Martin: Ugh, that was awful. I’m glad you’re at least lurking and I hope you stick around and comment from time to time. I’ve always liked what you had to say.
Martin
@Nettoyeur: Not how it’ll work. The problem isn’t a lack of competition for wages, but these individuals (particularly with advanced degrees) having very narrow skillsets, and not necessarily matching the needed skillsets. This turns into a structural unemployment problem, which is only going to be solved by importing workers and if we are rejecting that path, to moving those functions overseas. They won’t move to China, but they might move to Singapore, Japan, South Korea, etc.
I’m expecting we’ll lose a LOT of biotech to Singapore.
RaflW
Newish thread on Bsky that I fully endorse
cain
@Martin: I do miss your posts, Martin. One of my favorite posters honestly. You are #1. ;)
RaflW
@Starfish (she/her): Republicans have become a party that, elite private schools that they attend excepted, wants to wreck our university system.
It’s hard for us to accept that such an absurd notion is true, but they’re sure as f– acting think this is the policy outcome they are seeking, via a multi-prong approach.
Putin loves this, btw.
brendancalling
“Can you still say chicom? It’s just short for chinese communist, right? Or is that going to get me canceled? Fuck it, cancel me. I’m ready for it. I’ll fuck off somewhere and drive a school bus or something.”
Fuck ‘em all, Cole—I say this sincerely, because I have reached my saturation point with everybody and just about everything. A wiser and deader man than me said it best: “Blow up your tv, throw away your paper, move to the country, build you a home.”
Ain’t nothing wrong with fuckin’ off somewhere and to hell with it, if you can. Why do you think I’m getting certified to teach abroad?
sab
@Martin: You have been missed.
Ohio Mom
@Sfinny: It’s not you, setting up our online Social Security accounts nearly broke Ohio Dad, who is very technically adept.
Cowgirl in the Sandi
@Martin:
I always enjoyed your very thoughtful posts. Hope you will reconsider and post more.
prostratedragon
Seen some cat-dogs in my time, but Nudacris is one of the few dog-cats. Cute fellow.
NaijaGal
I was born years after the Biafran War and came of age during several military dictatorships in Nigeria. Grew up on a university campus where my mom taught. Students and professors were the face of a resistance that the government did everything to quash.
The situation was very different from what the US is currently facing because we had a horrendously corrupt and arrogant elected civilian government. Initially, some people welcomed a military coup because they thought soldiers would be disciplined and that there would be less looting and corruption. The country quickly learned that they were worse.
The military men in power understood that educated people were a problem for them so they either tried to crack down on, coopt, or encourage outward migration of professors and college educated people. (The president-elect’s statement, “I love the uneducated,” always reminded me of this)
The media were interesting. There were the brown envelope types who would print whatever they were paid to print. And then there were the investigative journalists who risked their lives to print the truth. I was thirteen years old when one of these intrepid journalists, Dele Giwa, was targeted using a package bomb.
As he lay dying in hospital he had his peers take photos of him to print in the newspapers. He knew he was going to die, but he still wanted to expose the truth of what had happened to him and whose return address was on the package. My thirteen-year-old self stared at the devastation to that man’s body as printed on the front page of a newspaper and I hoped that I would have one-hundredth the courage he did when I grew up.
I don’t have any wisdom to share on how to defeat an authoritarian regime – it takes time, it takes simple acts of defiance. It takes avoiding anticipatory obedience. Many in the US media have already failed on that score.
There was nothing that humiliated Nigerian soldiers more than regular people singing popular protest songs like Fela’s “Zombie.” They couldn’t shoot everyone just for singing and they understood that fear of their guns was not the same thing as the respect they craved. I sense a similar need for respect with this crew, in spite of their dominance displays, which is a point of weakness that can potentially be exploited.
I’d hoped that USians would understand the threat and come together like the French did, putting aside differences temporarily to defeat LePen. Clearly, the US is not like France. The majority of voters here decided to put an authoritarian in charge. However, they are not the majority of people who were eligible to vote. I don’t think there is anything to be done about people who willingly voted for Trump. Whatever we can do to get the millions who didn’t participate in the democratic process to understand what is at stake and to proceed on the assumption that there will be future elections, we need to do. Pre-caving won’t help us out of this mess.
Gretchen
@Old Dan and Little Ann: I have identical twin daughters and was impressed when their 7th grade bball coach could tell them apart. How did he do it? Even I sometimes had to look twice. Uh, their names are on their shirts.
Pete Downunder
The Aussie government also wants to restrict foreign students (mainly Chinese and Indian) even though their tuition fees support most of the universities since the government largely stopped subsidizing them. The given reason is housing shortage – which is a real thing here – but I suspect there is a lot of racism. It isn’t that long ago Australia had a whites only immigration policy.
Gretchen
@Starfish (she/her): Even without banning foreign student, a lot fewer were willing to come during Trump’s first term for fear of what he’d do. It hurt the mid- tier state universities because they paid full out of state tuition.
Gretchen
@Sfinny: We bought a new car today for fear they would become unaffordable/ unavailable after tariffs. We remember empty car lots during covid supply chain disruptions. New phone is next.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Martin: I am sorry for the abuse you suffered here, and I have always found your comments worthwhile. Please stay and comment!
seaboogie
Yeah, so the way that I am handling this *ish* is this:
My sweetie and I are news junkies, but I’m letting him stay engaged while I mostly sign off using noise canceling headphones.
Remember when COVID started people had all sorts of plans to cook and work out and learn another language? If you did those things, good on you. I never did, but I am doing it now.
And I hope we all have window seats on the Schadenfreude Express.
Martin
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Thanks all. I’m test riding right now. We’ll see how things feel going forward.
NotMax
@Gretchen
Saw a spot today for a local dealership advertising “Black Friday sale prices now.”
Ramona
Does anybody know about Stephen Spoonermore who claims to be a data scientist and a Republican? He has written a duty to warn letter to Kamala Harris requesting that she withdraw her concession on the basis of a prima facie case he presents describing hallmarks of a specific and plausible hack or variety of hacks which can be verified or disconfirmed by handcounts where the anomalies are detected:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-151721941
The link lists his affiliations. Are they known to anybody at Balloon Juice?
NotMax
@Ramona
Concession is a traditional* nicety which carries no legal weight. Calling for a withdrawal accomplishes exactly nothing.
*with a few glaring exceptions
Jim Appleton
John, I follow here somewhat closely, but I don’t have a clue as to how or what you do in Arizona to keep two knickles. Telecommuting, semiritired? Anyway, good onya, just curious and pardon if this has been covered.
Martin
@Ramona: Two observations:
NotMax
@Martin
Yup. Races on the same ballot left blank are tallied as undervotes.
Nothing I’ve seen suggests any demonstrable increase in those beyond historical results.
Ramona
@NotMax: who is Duncan Buell?
Ramona
@Martin: with respect to bullet ballots in your point 1 are you talking about ranked choice voting where the voter only makes one choice?
Martin
@Ramona: I think it applies to both ranked choice and at-large where you can pick 3 candidates, but choose to only pick one.
Ramona
@Martin: what is the nature of such audits of undervotes? How is the threshold at which the audit is triggered is determined? How does the audit reveal all is fine? Is there a link that might explain these things to me including the vocabulary?
Is there any attention given to a pattern of undervotes across swing states or is a surplus of undervotes detected based on some predetermined threshold, the registrar becomes aware of the trigger of an audit (is this a software trigger?) and then the registrar reports it to the next rung up in the state election structure and then what happens?
Ramona
@Martin: and the term “bullet vote” is used only for these two cases and none other?
Ramona
@Martin: Ah, I’ve never understood “at large” but it is only now that I can focus on the fact that I need to know what it means. All I know about the matter is if a psychic midget convict were to escape there would be a small medium at large.
Ramona
@NotMax: where does one access the data of these undervotes to determine whether they tally with historic patterns?
Melancholy Jaques
@Ramona:
To get the aggregate number, total the number of votes in each race.
In Michigan:
5,564,354 total votes for president
5,568,384 total votes for US senate (4,030 fewer)
Martin
@Ramona: So, I’ve employed similar tests in my polling work (when I was working). Because we have incredibly powerful computers, you can sanity check against everything to make sure everything is working okay. So you might have a dashboard that shows the percent undervote in each race on the ballot, and set an alarm to go off if it exceeds the highest undervote percent in your data set, or 2x the mean, or something like that. Basically, if you looked at your data and would say ‘huh, that’s weird’, that’s probably what you want an alarm set at. It just gets you to focus on where a potential problem might be. For an election I’d check against turnout rates in each precinct, turnout by party, by demographics, all of the down ballots. I’d set alarms against split ballots, etc. None of these are ‘bad’ but they might indicate a problem and so you surface the weird stuff and poke at it, look for answers – why hasn’t this precinct come in yet? Power outage, car accident, etc.
In modern data collection/analysis, you don’t really need to have blind spots. Computers can check everything constantly and prioritize feedback. That doesn’t mean you can’t scam the system, but you need to be increasingly sophisticated to do it.
Undervotes would vary by race, etc. I had a particularly uninspired set of mayoral candidates that left me tempted to leave it blank. Talking to others, they felt the same way. But that’s a different thing from leaving them ALL blank, which is what’s being asserted here. This would certainly be triggered by software – everything is software based now. A county registrar with such an anomaly would both report it up the chain and investigate locally. If they suspect malfeasance they’d call the SOS and AG and maybe the FBI. If there was such an undervote, the SOS would compare that rate across counties and precincts (as the author does across states) and a pattern would emerge.
And understand for NC to have an 11% undervote on all down ballot races as being asserted, most of the registrars would need to see this, including the Dem ones and I’d think within a week or so this would be run up to the DOJ and we’d have leaked reporting on it.
The truth of the matter is that you don’t get a lot of anomalous data, so when you do it really stands out. You just can’t go 13 days with this kind of a discrepancy without thousands of people being aware of it. That’s a hell of a cross-party conspiracy to keep quiet.
Martin
@Ramona: That I’m aware of. We have a word for what the author is describing and it’s ‘undercount’.
sab
@Martin: I am glad you are back. Your comments show why.
BJ has a lot of idiots like me, but we also have a small but solid base of commenters who know what they are talking about and you are one of those.
prostratedragon
A duty-free gift for the traveller
Ramona
@Martin: It seems to me that you understand the process sufficiently to understand Stephen S. assertion and is it your opinion that this is no more than a pipe dream?
opiejeanne
@NotMax: The Subaru dealership where we bought our new Forester in 2023 offered us a deal on a 2025 Forester if we’d trade it in: $11,000 for a new Forester.
Our current vehicle has less than 12,000 miles on it, it’s paid off, and I don’t see the up-side to this deal, other than having a newer car.
Gretchen
@opiejeanne: We traded in a 2014 Ford Escape that has had continuous repair needs adding up to $4000 in the last year for a 2025 Outback, so that felt worth it. I wonder why your dealership thought $11K for a newer car was worth it to them. I can see why it didn’t feel worth it to you.
opiejeanne
@Gretchen: This was a few days after the election. I think they figure that not many people will be willing to buy a new car from them if the tariffs are that bad, and that will make used cars much more valuable and they want something on the lot that they can sell.
Betty Cracker
@NaijaGal: Excellent comment — thank you for sharing your story. Insights from people who’ve experienced authoritarian regimes can teach us a lot.
@Martin: I’m sorry you were bullied and harassed. That sucks! For what it’s worth, I value your voice here a great deal.
Ramalama
@NaijaGal: yes!
Ramalama
Maybe this has been mentioned before in earlier threads but isn’t it weird that Trump can tolerate RFKJ’s voice? I would think the choking turkey aspect, not that he can help it, would be gigantic weakness to the shallowest man on earth.
Baud
@NaijaGal:
👍
Travels with Charley
@Martin: late to the thread (as usual) but up lurking to say that I am so GLAD to see you commenting again! I really valued your insights and missed your voice. It’s hard when things get …vitriolic on BJ, because I (and others?) just skip over the nasty comments. I will be more alert to defending sane voices, from now on.
Geminid
@Ramalama: Trump can tolerste RFK Jr.’s voice because Junior was very useful to him. This was a close election, and even though RFK Jr.’s following is relatively small they could have made the difference for Trump. His appointment to head up HHS is their payoff.
Trump doesn’t need RFK Junior any more now except as window dressing. Junior’s brand of “woo populism”– Transform Big Agriculture! Reform the Pharmaceutical Industry!– won’t withstand the entrenched interests that will dominate Trump’s Cabinet.
So I expect RFK Jr. will be marginalized. Trump may have to hear RFK Jr. but he won’t have to really listen to him. He’ll take what his Agriculture and Commerce Secretaries say much more seriously, at least on the matters that count.
If RFK Jr. had a moral core he might be resigning by the end of next year, but I think he will more likely suck it up and stay. Trump will leave him some toys to play with and a corner of the room to play in. If Trump knows his man– and I think Trump and his Chief of Staff have Junior figured out– he’ll have given RFK Jr. enough to keep him pacified.
But if RFK Jr. rocks the boat he’ll be out on his ear soon after. Then some poor hawks are gonna be like, “Shit, here comes that asshole again!”
Another Scott
@NaijaGal: Thank you.
Best wishes,
Scott.
NotMax
Entirely OT.
A little homework too much trouble?
Watched an otherwise informative short documentary put together by an Australian who pronounced a waterway on the east coast of the U.S. the POH-toh-mac River and FDR’s name as Franklin De-LAY-no Roosevelt.
NotMax
Oh crap. #108 wrong thread
Gvg
@Kayla Rudbek: I don’t know where you get American kids don’t do stem as undergraduate. They do. It’s a big preference. Pushed in high schools too, sometimes too much. Well, here in Florida anyway. Lots of money and support. Many wash out of course, but many don’t. Not sure of chem, but all the engineering, Bio, computer and a bunch of other related tracks are big. Civil engineering also seems to be growing. Not sure that is considered stem, but I think it’s a good thing to grow. A lot of Nursing and care related fields also seem to be increasing in numbers.
Rachel Bakes
For what it’s worth, John, over the weekend I paraphrased your “never help the Nazis” admonition of 1.5 weeks ago (was it only that long? Feels like a month!) on the FB page of a Christian college friend who, I dare say, actually lives like a real Christian. In response to a quote about Latinos being targeted already. A large number of people appreciated the clear direction and asked to use that advise going forward. Your plain speaking and attempts to cut the BS work and help.
twbrandt
@Martin: I am so sorry that happened.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Martin: We’ve had our disagreements, but you are a thoughtful commenter. I hope you stick around.
Jesse
@John Cole: tgabjs. That’s my thinking, too. I’m processing all these things, too, while taking in many different responses from various directions. I’m trying not to get triggered by what I think are overreactions, nonsense, etc., and I’m trying to listen more, think more, and talk less. I agree that we need to process these things. We’ll have time to regroup. And we will.
Denali5
@Martin,
Glad to have you back. You have been missed. Your insights have been very helpful.
Barry
@Martin: “I think Dems need to take a step back and consider the opportunities that might be present here. RFK might have the wrong motives for taking big pharma down a peg, but they need to be taken down a peg. ”
This is hiring an arsonist while firing the Fire Department.
pieceofpeace
@twbrandt: Me, too.
Ruckus
Getting old sucks.
It sorta does at that.
Of course the opposite, not getting old isn’t nearly as much fun – IOW sucks a lot more. Perspective is important to remember in some things/situations and this is one of them. Being an old fart has a perspective somewhat different than being a not old fart. Like you still have a perspective. And the experience of getting to and being an old fart. Not everyone does that, had a cousin who made 6 months old – he had zero perspective- other than crying and both exhaust systems worked.
Remember perspective, it shapes most of our daily lives, what we expect, how we react, how everything works – and doesn’t as well as it used to.
DetroitBeanCounter
I don’t post much here, but I had a vision in my head of you hauling a bus load of half feral middle schoolers back and forth to school every day and it made me giggle. My wife taught them for almost 40 years and every time she gets goofy I remind her she spent too many years with 6th graders.
Ruckus
@SpaceUnit:
I think history is a good thing to remember. What the world was like long (and not so long) ago compared to what it’s like today. How many wars we used to have, not all that long ago in the history of the world, and even in the lifetimes of many alive today. How many people didn’t even have a minimal supply of food. Is it perfect? Not even close but then it is humanity, in all its ups and downs, ins and outs….
Ruckus
@John Cole:
Being scared is a natural response to our current state of, well most everything in this country. We aren’t perfect, after all we are human, most of us, and we have to deal with someone who seems to think that he’s perfect, when he has ZERO CONCEPT of reality, perfection, life, his own values (that’s easy he has zero positive values..) If someone ISN’T raw and stressed I wonder what they are smoking…..
Ruckus
@Martin:
It’s a dumb thing to undermine.
As is most everything that shitforbrains and his cohorts want to screw up. I don’t actually see what they think life should be like but I’d bet money that it is a world that really doesn’t work. This isn’t the world it was 100 yrs ago, or even 50 yrs ago and it won’t be the world they think they wan’t but couldn’t put together with step by step instructions and the worlds largest bottle of glue.
Also welcome back.
Please stay, you provide a valuable point of view and perspective.
The Unmitigated Gaul
@SpaceUnit: A three hour workout? Can you give details?
Ruckus
@Peale:
The cost of everything is ALWAYS on the customer.
It’s called a profit and without that the business either has to be supported by taxation or it fails. Fails not necessarily in the next 15 minutes but an unprofitable company will fail, without someone stuffing money in the cash register. It is, I believe the first law of business. Doesn’t have to be at all a big profit, just a positive intake of money. After all the purpose of business is a profit. Any business.
The Unmitigated Gaul
@NaijaGal: Brilliant.
The Lodger
@Martin: Late to the party but I’m glad to see you’re back to providing detailed and informative comments. Mazel tov!
Martin
@Ramona: Yeah. I’m not saying he’s wrong per his data, which he doesn’t provide, but it’s a pretty big data anomaly – one that I would normally be able to eyeball just tracking my local races – and I have an extremely hard time believing that hundreds of Registrar of Voters and SOS overlooked. If there was something there, we’d at least be hearing murmurings of it through anonymous sources.
Ruckus
@NaijaGal:
Wow.
Many people in this world want to be given everything. This may be more a US thing than some other countries but the reality is that it’s humans. And in this country we have a history of many believing that money is everything. And that far more than enough money is THE THING. Most of us never get close to far more than enough, but many get to more than the minimum. And at this point in time we also have a side that really, really wants to be the top of the pile, and are willing to get there on a ladder of human bodies. Because they likely couldn’t get close any other way. Can’t earn it. Can’t find it by accident. They have nothing to sell that gets them there, they don’t have a skill to sell at more than minimum price, they didn’t inherit enough or anything at all. They may even have a grievance, but that isn’t worth doodly squat. All they really have is hate and ignorance. And those together almost always gets one nowhere.
The US is a country founded upon Not Royalty and freedom (for some/many it’s freedom for me and not for thee).
We often forget history and what life was like where many of the people that come here or past generations came from. In many parts of the world this is a young country. It’s not perfect – humans are involved. And many humans think that putting a wall around themselves keeps out those they don’t like/respect/want to be around, even if it’s a wall of others like themselves.
Ruckus
@Martin:
You make this a better place, please stay.
We humans often get used to a place and try and bend it to our views as much as possible. I call this back fencing – making your home/property to your specific views. Humans often fail or at least not succeed at creating that world around them as they see fit and then often go all piss and vinegar. In any situation with as many viewpoints as we have here in online space we are often going to piss off someone, often about nothing actually important.
Humanity is in a place where we can communicate our desires for how life should look, and that isn’t always a good or healthy thing. We are at a point in time unlike the vast majority of human existence that allows rather rapid, world wide communications. But one thing I really like about this site is that we seem, at the very least to have a grudging level of respect for others and their opinions, even as they sometimes differ from ours. We – as humanity, need to really, really understand that as the world gets more crowed with humans and we have a communications system that allows us to present our views as the end of any discussion, which they almost NEVER are, that we need to respect that others may have a different view, and often for valid reason, and even if it isn’t valid for us.