Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations to help cover the cost of the chemo.
Second, I’ve been up since 4:30 and had a very, very long day, so just the basics tonight as I want to rack out.
Air raid alerts have just gone up in Kharkiv (9:20 PM EST/4:23 AM local time in Ukraine) and they were already up in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. The air raid alert maps are showing Russian strategic aviation up over western Russia, which means that tonight’s attack will be drones, missiles, and glide bombs.
Now that the Biden administration has lifted their restrictions, the Ukrainians have unlimbered the Storm Shadows against a target in Kursk!
“Ukraine has used British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles in Russia for the first time. The Telegraph understands that residents in the village of Marino, Kursk, found fragments from a Storm Shadow missile on Wednesday.” www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 10:06 AM
“The spokesperson for prime minister Keir Starmer said his office would not be commenting on reports or operational matters, but the Guardian understands that the missiles have been used.” www.theguardian.com/world/live/2…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 10:11 AM
Oh wow, so you’re telling me the piece of paper that Putin was recently shaking in front of the Western media threatening to bring down a nuclear apocalypse upon the world if Ukraine ever dares fight back again has been HORSESHIT all this time?… Again…?
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 19, 2024 at 5:55 PM
US Embassy Kyiv also closed due to a reported credible threat:
Full US Embassy Kyiv statement here, with emergency numbers to call: ua.usembassy.gov/mascot-updat…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 2:09 AM
From US Embassy Kyiv’s website:
Message for U.S. Citizens in Ukraine
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Kyiv, Ukraine (November 20, 2024)
Location: Ukraine, all districts
Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received specific information of a potential significant air attack on November 20. Out of an abundance of caution, the Embassy will be closed, and Embassy employees are being instructed to shelter in place. The U.S. Embassy recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced.
Actions to Take:
- Monitor local media for updates
- Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert
- Immediately take shelter if an air alert is announced
- Follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in the event of an emergency
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today, on the 1,001st Day of a Full-Scale War, Russia Is Just as Insane as It Was on the 1,000th Day And on February 24 – Address By the President
20 November 2024 – 20:11
Dear Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day.
First. Today, there were a lot of nerves and questions about some kind of particular danger. Although, throughout this time, we have already experienced so many cruel and vile attacks from Russia… Air raid alerts should always be heeded. We have that kind of a neighbor – insane. Today, on the 1,001st day of a full-scale war, Russia is just as insane as it was on the 1,000th day and on February 24. The information frenzy that took place today, with some panic messages passed around – all this benefits only Russia. Please take care of yourselves, support our army, and be especially careful that no one manipulates your emotions for their own advantage. Meanwhile, we continue to strengthen our air defense.
Second. We have a new support package from America. It is worth $275 million. The package includes drones, ammunition for HIMARS and artillery, and most importantly – mines to stop Russian assaults. This will really strengthen our guys on the frontline. And this is the 70th defense package from the United States. Ukraine appreciates America’s bipartisan support and President Biden’s decisions. Thank you!
Third. I spoke today with the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk. I thanked him for all the support provided since the first days of the invasion. We discussed the preparation of a new package from Poland for Ukraine. We also discussed Poland’s presidency of the European Union, which will begin in the new year. Together we can achieve great things for our nations and for all of Europe.
And one more thing. I met with the World Bank’s Managing Director of Operations. We talked about our financial sustainability, support programs and funds from Russian assets. It is absolutely justified that Russian funds should be used to defend against Russian aggression itself. The perpetrator of the war must pay for it. Pay and be held accountable.
I thank everyone who helps us bring a just peace closer!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Baltic Sea:
‘The Swedish Navy is present in the Baltic Sea, where the cables have suffered damage… “This type of event has all the signs of hybrid warfare,” says the navy’s press chief Jimmie Adamsson to SVT .’ www.berlingske.dk/internationa…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 10:21 AM
Swedish PM: ‘”We assume that it may very well be deliberate sabotage, but we don’t know anything yet. I’m not going to speculate on that,’ he says to Swedish media .’ www.berlingske.dk/internationa…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 10:22 AM
Ship suspected of damaging comms cables x 2 in Baltic Sea has been detained by Danish Navy.
Yi Peng 3 is anchored just outside DK territory with patrol/dive Y311 SØLØVEN vessel guarding her.
Frigate HDMS HVIDBJØRNEN might be present too (no AIS but made speed towards situation.)
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 1:32 AM
“we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 6:31 AM
“We’re not big believers in coincidences any more” – a European diplomat to me this morning.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 11:55 AM
The Lithuanian Foreign Minister:
If I had a nickel for every time a Chinese ship was dragging its anchor on the bottom of the Baltic Sea in the vicinity of important cables I would have two nickels, which isn’t much, but it’s weird that it happened twice.
— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@landsbergis.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 9:14 AM
The US:
US announced new package of military assistance to Ukraine, an estimated value – $275 million. www.defense.gov/News/Release…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 9:52 AM
“The Ukraine conflict has spurred other countries to reevaluate their opposition to antipersonnel land mines. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia considered withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention earlier this year” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 8:53 AM
From The Washington Post:
President Joe Biden has authorized the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine, a step that will bolster Kyiv’s defenses against advancing Russian troops but has drawn criticism from arms control groups.
The move comes in the wake of the White House’s recent authorization allowing Ukraine to use a powerful missile system to strike inside Russia — part of a sweep of urgent actions that the lame-duck Biden administration is taking to help Kyiv’s faltering war effort.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow will retaliate for the latest missile strikes from the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of about 190 miles. Shipping antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine is also potentially controversial, though among a different group: More than 160 countries have signed an international treaty banning their use, noting that the indiscriminate weapons can cause enduring harm to civilians. But Kyiv has sought them since Russia invaded nearly three years ago, and the Kremlin’s forces have deployed antipersonnel land mines liberally on the front lines, impeding Ukraine’s progress as it seeks to reclaim its own territory.
The Biden administration is deeply concerned about Russia’s assaults against Ukraine’s front lines in recent weeks and sees a pressing need to blunt the advance, U.S. officials said.“They have a need for things that can help slow down that effort on the part of the of the Russians,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Wednesday during a visit to Laos. Ukrainian forces are fabricating their own mines, he said, and the U.S. mines being provided “would self-activate, self-detonate and that makes it…far more safer eventually than the things that they are creating on their own.”
Austin and other U.S. officials did not say what type of mines are being provided. One official described them as “nonpersistent,” meaning that the mines self-destruct or lose battery charge to render them inactive within days or weeks. The official said that Ukrainian policymakers had committed to not deploying the mines in densely populated areas. Arms control experts said that even nonpersistent mines pose a safety hazard.
The official and three others spoke about the decision on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive internal White House deliberations.
“Russia is attacking Ukrainian lines in the east with waves of troops, regardless of the casualties that they’re suffering,” one of the officials said. “So the Ukrainians are obviously taking losses, and more towns and cities are at risk of falling. These mines were made specifically to combat exactly this.”
“When they’re used in concert with the other munitions that we already are providing Ukraine, the intent is that they will contribute to a more effective defense,” the official said.
Biden had been reluctant to supply Ukraine with the mines in the face of concerns within his own administration and from a wide range of anti-mine advocates who say the risk to civilians is unacceptably high. But Russia’s battlefield progress in recent months has forced the White House to find fresh ways to help Kyiv, especially following the victory of President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to steer the conflict toward a swift conclusion.
The United States has provided Ukraine with Claymores, a different type of antipersonnel mine, which are set above ground and triggered by an operator, making them permissible under mine ban conventions if used properly.
Use of the new mines would be limited to Ukrainian territory, with an expected focus on eastern Ukraine, one of the officials said. Russian forces have made significant advances in the Donetsk region and in recent months have gained territory at the fastest rate since 2022. Ukrainian troops have struggled to build strong defensive lines in the face of relentless drone sorties and small assault teams. Land mines could help them shore up their defenses by slowing enemy troops and channeling them to areas where they can be targeted with artillery and rockets.
Neither Russia nor the United States is one of the 164 parties to the Ottawa Convention, also known as the Mine Ban Treaty, that prohibits the deployment and transfer of antipersonnel land mines. Biden in 2022 revived an Obama-era policy that banned the transfer and use of U.S. antipersonnel land mines outside the Korean Peninsula.
One Ukrainian official welcomed any policy change despite the potential risks that would come with widespread deployment of the weapons.
“Russia uses them anyway,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the subject’s sensitivity.
More at the link.
Britain:
What does she think Russia has been firing for the past 1001 days?
— sianushka.bsky.social (@sianushka.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 2:57 AM
Ms. Abbott is a Labour MP.
Russia:
Russia will try to convey to U.S. leadership its plan for a new world order up to the year 2045, including a scheme to break Ukraine up into three parts, the Interfax Ukraine news agency reported on Nov. 20.
An intelligence community source confirmed the plan’s existence to the Kyiv Independent.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 20, 2024 at 4:11 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Editor’s Note: This story was updated to correct some of the wording and emphasize that the existence of the alleged plan couldn’t be independently confirmed by the Kyiv Independent.
Russia may try to convey to U.S. leadership its plan for a new world order up to the year 2045, including a scheme to break Ukraine up into three parts, the Interfax Ukraine news agency reported on Nov. 20, citing its sources in a Ukrainian intelligence agency.
A Ukrainian intelligence source also separately told the Kyiv Independent they know of such a plan.
The Kyiv Independent couldn’t independently verify this information.
Moreover, it’s not clear what is the status of the Russian document obtained by the Ukrainian intelligence — whether it’s an actual plan of the Russian leadership, a draft proposal, or something else. Its exact author is also unknown. Ukraine’s intelligence claimed that it was developed by the Russian Defense Ministry.
According to the alleged document, which intelligence sources described to the media, Russia wants Ukraine divided into thirds. The country’s eastern regions, including partially and fully Russian-occupied territories, would be annexed by Russia. The western lands would be “disputed territories” that could be claimed by neighboring countries, including Poland, Hungary, and Romania. The remaining territory, including Kyiv, would become a Russian-controlled puppet state.
The document envisages the effective dissolution of the independent Ukrainian state.
The document also puts forward four different scenarios of global world order development — two seen as favorable to Moscow and two disadvantageous.
Two of the scenarios, labeled “Formation of a multipolar world and the division of spheres of influence by leading actors” and “Regionalization/chaotization,” involve a Russian victory over Ukraine.
The others, “Dominance of the U.S. and the West” and “Acquisition by China of the status of the world’s leading power,” presuppose a military defeat in Ukraine.
The alleged plan, if proved real, would mark another Russian attempt to put forward suggestions for the disruption and recreation of a global world order.
The Kremlin convened meetings in 2022 and 2023 to find ways to dismantle the post-World War II global financial system and undermine U.S. power over global transactions, according to documents obtained by the Washington Post.
“One of the most important tasks is to create a new world order,” one of the documents dated April 3, 2023, reportedly said.
“Western countries led by the United States have tried to impose their own structure, based on their dominance.”
The alleged new plan’s proposed breakup of Ukraine reflect the maximalist goals of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which included regime change in Kyiv and “demilitarization” of the Ukrainian state.
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Here’s more on the Storm Shadow strike!
Video of today’s Storm Shadow strike on Russian target in the Kursk region of Russia. This is the first time when Storm Shadow missiles were used to target Russian territory.
(Video speed x3 due to 1 minute limit on BlueSky)
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 12:41 PM
Defense Express suggests the Air Force may have targeted a buried command post in Russia’s Kursk region with a Storm Shadow missile. Likely tied to the Presidential Administration, the site may also host DPRK and Russian military officials.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 11:15 AM
Russian milbloggers reported 12 missiles, claiming 2 were intercepted, but the videos don’t seem to support this claim.
t.me/wartranslate…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 11:08 AM
The Zaporizhzhia front:
Russian BUK air defence system destroyed on the Zaporizhzhia front.
t.me/russianocont…— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 19, 2024 at 10:30 AM
/2. This Russian BUK air defense system was destroyed by precise loitering munition strike. By 14th UAS Regiment of Ukraine. More and more of this appear in recent months.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 11:41 AM
Kherson:
#Kherson Today, Russian drones attacked
💔A mother, 48, and daughter, 17, both injured
💔a man, 68, injured
🔴An empty building
🔴A public busArtillery fire injured, in the suburbs:
💔2 women, 59 and 73
Note: most people were hiding at home due to a massive strike warning
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 5:31 PM
Pokrovsk:
Russian troops have killed two Ukrainian prisoners of war in Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk District, the Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office said on Nov. 20.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 20, 2024 at 4:11 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian troops have killed two Ukrainian prisoners of war in Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk District, the Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office said on Nov. 20.
They were stripped naked and shot dead, according to the prosecutors. In a picture published by the prosecutors, two blurred naked bodies are seen lying on the ground.
“On Nov. 10, the enemy stormed our fortifications near the village of Novodmytrivka, Pokrovsk district,” the prosecutors said. “After the Russian army captured two Ukrainian soldiers, they forced the men to strip naked. After being led at gunpoint through a forest plantation, the prisoners were shot dead.”
The prosecutor’s office said that it is also investigating whether Russian soldiers killed three more Ukrainian prisoners.
Reports of murders, torture, and ill-treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war are received regularly by Ukrainian authorities and have spiked in recent months. Most cases were recorded in embattled Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces had executed at least 124 Ukrainian prisoners of war since 2022 as of Nov. 6. On top of that, at least 177 Ukrainian prisoners have died in Russian captivity, according to a representative of the Ukrainian Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
On one occasion, a photo of an apparently executed Ukrainian soldier with a sword in his chest and the inscription “For Kursk” has appeared on social media, with remnants of gray tape visible on the soldier’s hand.
Executing prisoners of war is a gross violation of the Geneva Conventions.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is the next episode of Patron’s official cartoon:
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m racking out.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Gin & Tonic
What’s interesting about that BlueSky post with the video of the Storm Shadow strike is that apparently Ukraine is able to operate an ISR drone deep behind russian lines with apparently no response or interdiction.
Jay
As always, Thank you so much, Adam.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
https://nitter.poast.org/GlasnostGone/status/1859299193564639734#m
Planetjanet
@Jay: Delightful.
Jay
@Planetjanet:
It’s particularly amusing, because the rail lines across the bridge are still out of service, and roadways can only handle passenger and light truck traffic. The sea keeps ripping away the anti naval drone protections, what remains of the “Black Sea Fleet” is hiding in the Sea of Azov.
Pootie Poot, Strategic Genius that he is, is leaving ruZZian military assets unprotected to protect his multi trillion ruble boondoggle vanity project.
Planetjanet
@Jay: Master strategist. Wonder if all the fluff about witholding long range missiles from striking Ruzzia was to make him fear for his toy.
way2blue
@Jay: Hmm. That’s funny in a grim sort of way… Too bad Putin can’t pick it up & move it inland like the bombers.
YY_Sima Qian
What is strange is that nothing ever came out of the incident involving a Chinese flagged & owned (by the wholly owned Chinese subsidiary of Russian company) freighter damaging a Finnish pipeline by dragging its anchor on the bottom. If there was foul play, there should have been a lot more heat coming from the EU (not the least Finland & the Baltic States) on both Russia & the PRC. Yet, the story has went away, until the most recent incident.
Yutsano
@Planetjanet: Hot take: Uncle Vladdie’s missles dont work. And he knows it. It’s the lady doth protesting too much but in Pa-Russki*.
*I can’t seem to get a Cyrillic alphabet to work on my computer.
Also: it looks like Patron is having a marathon.
Jay
@Planetjanet:
Nope, Scholtz, Sullivan etc are addicted to both escalation fears and the G8 ruble pipeline.
wjca
@YY_Sima Qian: One time might be an accident. But it seems like the Scandinavians are thinking twice is enemy action. Perhaps they don’t believe in coincidence.
Yutsano
@Jay: I’m about 85% convinced there’s some kompromat on Scholtz. There’s no good reason for his cowardice here. Plus Macron is letting me all the fuck down here.
Gods I miss Merkel.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: They have well founded reasons for their suspicions. Both ships have ties to Russia. I don’t see what’s in it for the PRC, though.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
It’s a Chinese flagged ship, registered to a ruZZian company (subsidiary) in China, commanded by a ruZZian Captain and piloted by a ruZZian Pilot.
Don’t know why the PRC would know anything about the op.
But they should know it’s smuggling ruZZian oil to Egypt.
YY_Sima Qian
Well, in response to Ukraine launching ATACMS at targets w/in Russia, Russia launched an R26 “ICBM” w/ a small conventional (possibly dummy) warhead at Dnipro. I put ICBM in quotes because, while Russia has consistently claimed R26 is an intercontinental ballistic missile, apparently all of the test launches to date have trajectories consistent w/ that of a medium range ballistic missile (1000 – 3000 km range). It was probably claimed to be an “ICBM” in order to skirt the now defunct INF treaty.
This seems to be a messaging exercise by Russia, rattling the nuclear saber more loudly to try to get DC & Berlin concerned about escalation risk again.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: More reporting from the Guardian:
Chief Oshkosh
Man, that post from Abbott is just embarrassing for Labour.
Thanks again, Adam, for all the hard work.
Traveller
This ICBM (multiple warhead) strike on Dnipro Got My Attention
Of course, a nuclear strike by the Kremlin on Ukraine does not dictate a nuclear response from anyone else….but an all out assault with conventional arms is the appropriate response.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1gwckfw/rs26_icbm_reentry_vehicles_impacting_dnipro/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Traveller
PS a fairly insightful comment on Reddit:
Just did a bit of digging around, this ICBM seems to have a conventional payload of ~800 kilos (what the actual payload is, who knows). The whole ICBM is probably worth somewhere north of $100 million, and that doesn’t include the fact that because these are hitting such a high altitude you have to make sure that not only no satellites are in the way upon launch, but also upon re-entry and that may include maneuvering your own satellites (which have limited ability to do so). Depending on the missile used, there is a chance that it was liquid fueled so they have to be fueled before launch (which means fucking around with highly dangerous oxidizers). Every single nation that is capable would have been watching this launch like fucking crazy. Just to put it into perspective, if the 800 kilo payload figure is actually correct, Russia could have achieved the same thing with a ~$3 million Iskander ballistic missile. It’s a fucking stupid move. First nation to ever launch an ICBM at a foreign country (that the public is aware of), pissing off the rest of the world, just to send a message to Ukraine, that they are already fucking aware of. “The next one might have a nuke”. Like no fucking shit, they know that already