Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. It was only in the mid to high 60s late this afternoon and she was ready to go. We did a 1.1 mile walk with a 22 minute pace, which is both the farthest she’s walk and the fastest pace since she was diagnosed. In fact it was her dragging on our usual two mile walks that made me take her to the vets right away back in the late winter. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations to help with her chemo.
Second, I am fried! So, just the basics tonight.
Third: the dark chocolate mousse sets up properly if, and only if, you put the right amount of chocolate in the ganache. Easy fix.
For most of today people were playing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), new old ordnance, new new ordnance, Iranian ordnance?
Russia launched something awful at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, home to ~1 million people. What type of missile is unclear. Kyiv claims an ICBM; some western officials say not so but a ballistic missile. Regardless, Moscow used a terrifying and devastating weapon on a densely populated city.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 7:31 AM
The Russians have now confirmed what they launched at Ukraine in reprisal for the Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes.
New: ‘President Vladimir Putin has said that the Russian army has struck Ukraine with one of its newest medium-range missile systems – a conventional ballistic missile called Oreshnik.’ www.kommersant.ru/doc/7313697?…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 12:26 PM
‘According to the president, the Russian strike fell on the “Southern Machine-Building Plant” (Yuzhmash). This is a large Ukrainian enterprise for the production of rocket and space technology, located in Dnipro.’
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 12:35 PM
The first rule of intermediate range ballistic missile is we don’t discuss intermediate range ballistic missile:
During the briefing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova received a phone call and was asked not to comment on the strike on the Dnipro by an intercontinental ballistic missile.
But thanks to Masha’s intelligence, “no one heard anything.”
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 6:03 AM
Tatarigami puts today’s Russian IRBM strike in perspective:
Since day 1 of the invasion, Russia has struck Ukraine with nuclear-capable missiles like Iskander, Kinzhal, and Kh-101/102. Another ballistic missile launch is no different, just more blatant nuclear blackmail
If Russia doesn’t like strikes inside of Russia, it can simply leave
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 10:39 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today It Was a New Russian Missile; All the Parameters: Speed, Altitude – Match Those of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile – Address by the President
21 November 2024 – 13:47
Dear Ukrainians!
On November 21, Ukraine celebrates the Day of Dignity and Freedom – remembering the two Ukrainian revolutions, honoring what Ukrainians truly are. Also today, our insane neighbor has once again shown what they truly are, and how they despise dignity, freedom, and human life itself. And how terrified they are.
So terrified that they are already using new missiles. And they are searching the world for more weapons. First in Iran, then in North Korea. Today it was a new Russian missile. All the parameters: speed, altitude – match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile. All expert evaluations are underway. Obviously, Putin is using Ukraine as a testing ground. Obviously, Putin is terrified when normal life simply exists next to him. When people simply have dignity. When a country simply wants to be and has the right to be independent.
Putin is doing whatever it takes to prevent his neighbor from breaking free of his grasp. And I thank all Ukrainians, who are defending Ukraine from this evil – unwaveringly, bravely, firmly. With dignity. This is one of the key words for Ukraine – dignity. And it is a word that will probably never be used again to describe Russia.
Today, I will sign a Decree enacting the National Security and Defense Council’s decision on dignity. On respect for the true heroes, heroes of Ukraine, for all our dignified people, and on fair treatment of those who chose the other side – chose Russia and treachery.
The first list of such individuals includes 34 names.
Glory to Ukraine!
Dnipro:
Tracks of Russian cruise and ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine on Nov. 21. Note how the cruise missiles (orange tracks) took a huge detour over north-central Ukraine before converging on Dnipro to keep UA air defenses guessing – and revealing themselves with radar signals.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 11:46 AM
The Financial Times has more details on the Russian IRBM strike on Dnipro:
Vladimir Putin has said Moscow fired an experimental hypersonic missile at Ukraine on Thursday in response to the US and UK allowing Kyiv to use advanced western weaponry at targets inside Russia.
The president of Russia said the Oreshnik missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, targeted a factory in Dnipro, which was formerly the Soviet Union’s top-secret rocket-building facility.
While Ukraine described it as an intercontinental missile, both the Russian president and a US official classified it as a mid-range ballistic missile, without specifying the type. A Nato spokesperson said it had been an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile.
A senior Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that the missile was an RS-26 Rubezh, which has a range of up to 6,000km.
The US later clarified that the missile Russia used was based on an intercontinental ballistic missile model, but continued to describe it as an “intermediate-range” missile.
“I can confirm that Russia did launch an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile. This IRBM was based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said.
Some analysts dispute the classification of RS-26 as an intercontinental missile, arguing that, because it has a shorter range than most ICBMs, it sits in a grey area between that designation and an intermediate-range missile.
But under the US and Russia’s New Start nuclear arms control treaty of 2010, an ICBM is defined as a “land-based ballistic missile with a range in excess of 5,500km”.
Before Thursday, no ICBM had been recorded as being used in conflict.
Putin said Russia would respond to “escalation . . . decisively and correspondingly”. Russia reserved the right to use its weaponry against military targets in countries that allowed Ukraine to use their weapons against Moscow’s forces, he added.
Ukraine said it had intercepted six of the accompanying Russian missiles, but not what it said was the RS-26, which was launched from Russia’s southern Astrakhan region.
British defence secretary John Healey referred on Thursday to “unconfirmed reports” of “a new ballistic missile” launched at Ukraine that the Russians “have been preparing for months”. Officials in Berlin said that, if confirmed, the ICBM attack would “once again show Putin’s inhuman ruthlessness”.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday on X: “Our insane neighbour has once again revealed its true nature.”
He added the Russian missile’s “speed and altitude suggest intercontinental ballistic capabilities. Investigations are ongoing”.
Two people were injured in the attack, local authorities said. It is not clear what the missile was targeting or the extent of the damage caused.
The US official said it was likely Russia only had a few of these missiles and Ukraine had withstood “countless attacks, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads”. They added the weapon would not be “a game-changer in this conflict”.
Nato spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said the strike was yet another example of Russia’s attacks against Ukrainian cities.
“Russia aims to terrorise the civilian population in Ukraine and intimidate those who support Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked aggression. Deploying this capability will neither change the course of the conflict nor deter Nato allies from supporting Ukraine.”
Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva, wrote on X: “Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low-accuracy and high cost.”
“But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal,” he added.
More at the link.
Pentagon: Russia’s intermediate-range ballistic missile was based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model.
Video shows the debris of missile which were found in Dnipro after the attack.
x.com/ostapyarysh/…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 3:02 PM
In Dnipro, residential building is on fire following a russian missile attack!
#UkrainianView
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 1:04 AM
/1. The impact site of one of the rods of the Russian ICBM RS-26 launched this morning at the city of Dnipro.
State Emergency Service of Ukraine regarding the damage caused by attack:
“In the morning, the enemy attacked Dnipro: 2 people were wounded…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 5:04 AM
/2. The building of the rehabilitation center for people with disabilities was damaged. The boiler room was partially destroyed, the windows were broken.
A fire broke out in a two-story residential building on the territory of the private sector. The roof on the area of 150 meters was on fire…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 5:04 AM
/3. Also in the city, an industrial enterprise and a garage cooperative were damaged, on the territory of which a fire broke out with an area of 100 square meters, 9 garages were partially destroyed.”
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 5:05 AM
And we have a new line of effort in Russia’s political warfare influence campaign. I bet you can’t guess where it is being conducted?
It’s interesting to see “Ads” on X, promoted and paid by small accounts, pushing headlines about nuclear escalation fears while linking NYT article about the ATACMS strikes. This suggests a possible coordinated psyops campaign aimed at a Western audience.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 12:51 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
According to the WSJ: “A senior North Korean general was wounded in a recent Ukrainian strike in the Kursk area.
It is the first time that Western officials have confirmed that a high-ranking North Korean military officer has become a casualty during the war.”
www.wsj.com/world/senior…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 1:44 PM
/1. Regarding the yesterdays Storm Shadow strikes on the command post in the Kursk region:
“Yesterday, 20.11.2024 at about 15:00, a missile strike was launched against the command post located in the settlement of Maryino, Rylsky District, Kursk Region…
t.me/dosye_shpion…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 9:01 AM
/2. «…As a result of the strike, 18 servicemen were killed, and another 33 were injured to varying degrees of severity. Among the wounded are three DPRK servicemen (two men with serious injuries and one female medic with minor injuries). Wounded were taken to the Rylsky Central District Hospital…»
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 9:02 AM
/3. «…Most of the victims are officers from Southern and Eastern Military Districts.
At the time of the strike, the first deputy commander of the Leningrad Military District, Lieutenant General Solodchuk, was at the command post. There is no information yet on his condition…»
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 9:03 AM
/4. «…Further, an incident is reported that occurred during the clearing of rubble at the scene:
At about 19:00, as a result of the detonation of an unknown munition, 13 servicemen from the 88th Engineer Regiment were injured. Among the injured is the deputy chief of staff of the regiment.»
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 9:04 AM
That’s four North Korean soldiers down, 9,996 to go!
It’s probably actually more than that at this point, but you get the idea.
Zaporzhzhia Oblast:
A HIMARS strike hit a concentration of enemy forces at a training ground in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region.
t.me/ukrbavovna/1…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 11:04 AM
Vovchansk:
They try to scare us with nukes, but how are cities razed to the ground by glide bombs any better?
Vovchansk.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 9:04 AM
Kherson:
#Kherson region. Yesterday, Russia targeted
11 settlements
💔1 killed
💔10 injured, incl 1 child🔴a humanitarian aid point distributing bread
🔴gas station
🔴5 highrises
🔴8 private houses
damaged#Drone #HumanSafari continues.
Power: gone, due to the morning attack pic.x.com/VaSbIHk9Ty
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 1:44 AM
Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:
All-clear being given in oblasts around Ukraine.
Meanwhile, reports of explosions in Sevastopol, in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea, where air raid sirens have sounded and air defenses are said to be operating. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources of an attack by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 8:36 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
My stray buddy is back!
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 6:26 AM
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Video footage of the “ICBM”/IRBM impact at Dnipro seem to suggest multiple-independent reentry vehicles.
trollhattan
Thanks, Adam.
The conceit Russia has been holding back ooga-booga weapons, only to be unleashed should Ukraine and/or “the west” misbehave is childish and absurd in equal measure. IOW standard Kremlin comms.
I’d be tempted to retort “that all?” but then I don’t live there. A thousand fucking days of this monstrosity.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, it has 4 MIRV’s.
And is “technically” a banned weapon, so that just goes to show, again, what any Treaty is worth with ruZZia.
Martin
I continue to be impressed with Russias ability to use expensive weapons to achieve almost nothing.
stinger
So glad about Rosie.
Another Scott
@Jay: Cheryl Rofer thinks the evidence points to 6 warheads.
Slava Ukraini!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Jay
@Martin:
Donno, they seem to have gotten a shitload of Politicians and “influencers” shitting their pants about WWIII, even though as Adam has pointed out, we have been in WWIII as far as ruZZia is concerned for over a decade.
Martin
@Jay: That would be notable if these people weren’t constantly shitting their pants.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@Martin:
Boris “DePiffle” Johnson had a point about this in a speech 2 days ago,
“It seems that most of the Republicans have a homoerotic fixation about Putin”.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
PML but fuck this noise! Drop the Kerch Bridge as a response. Yeah, I know that it has no “strategic value” . That’s the bloody point!
Thank you Adam. Glad to hear Rosie is doing so well.
Traveller
I have it on some reasonable authority that we were notified (shortly? How much warning?), in advance of this missile launch by the Russians that this was going to occur.
Now I don’t know this to be absolutely true, but I believe it to be so….and this should be of some reassurance if the Russians did in fact give us a “Warning,” to avoid any possible misunderstanding. Best Wishes, Traveller
Jay
@Traveller:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-icbm-attackddnipro-38b0faf6eed2cef98bdbc9be18f58244
Who knows, the one consistency is that ruZZia always lies.
Jay
@Jay:
And the missile and it’s development is a violation of all nuclear and missile treaties.
Once again showing the worthlessness of any so called treaty with ruZZia is.
Traveller
@Jay: You will get no argument from me on the worthlessness of Russia’s word on anything or any given promise….even if signed in blood and years of negotiation…Russia might throw it all away on a whim.
Which I believe to be the case in this damnable Russian invasion of Ukraine War (I was thinking of what to call this war…Russia’s Invasion, I see no other possible phrasing).
In any case, I am of good spirits, but still moderately depressed over the election of Mr. Trump…I pray that this somehow, magically, works to the benifit of Ukraine, (I don’t believe it will…but I pray…lol). Thanks for digging out that AP conformation; it is difficult in these times to know what is true and what is not. Best Wishes in these Holidays to you & Yours, from Moi
Gloria DryGarden
I’m not much of a student if war, weapons, strategies, specific equipment and it’s tactical uses. But darn, now I feel like I need a chart of the different kinds of missiles, bombs , drones, artillery, anti aircraft thingies ( sorry, mega newbie on this topic). A list or a chart in ascending order of lesser to higher potency/ damage/ potential.. and a list of what stuff is banned by treaty, but getting used anyway.
could one of you direct me to this Information?
Y’all are welcome to suggest search terms to get me past my lack of vocabulary.
I got hooked by the idea they’re using stuff that’s banned, and that this probable icbm caused way more serious damage than previous bombings. suddenly I sort of want to know.
I’ve made my living doing massage therapy, (providing safe space for deep internal relaxing and pain relief) and working with 4 year olds (providing safe space and helping kids to “keep each other safe”) So this war stuff is like a horror film I can’t watch. I can pray. And I can care.
and now you have me hooked on some technical details I might be able to comprehend.
you can just imagine the stuff we say to 4 year olds about pretend guns, and those automatic machine gun noises they like to make. (It makes teachers sad..)
apologies for lay person vocabulary in my question.
this war and invasion of ukraine breaks my heart.
is there a chart of the kinds of weaponry being used, in order of how much damage it can do, or its range?
Traveller
Dear Gloria
War is the purposeful ripping flesh from body and bone, it is killing in it’s most wanton form, it is all ugly, there is little to be learned from war, except maybe, its necessity.
You help children, there is maybe nothing else, nothing more honorable…the study of war, not so much. Jay, Chris and both Scott’s, Adam and YY_Sima Qian, Gin & Tonic, Carlos, all of us attempt with great flaws to Study War, but it eludes us…entirely, without fail, we fail in the Study of War.
Because it is always changing. I was a good soldier, I was a good leader and good trainer of soldiers…but I cannot comprehend what today’s soldiers must endure, (and I’ve endured myself more than most). I look at that battle space spread out across the second largest country in Europe, Russia being the largest…and I am mystified, it is all terrible beyond what can be known by our weak flesh.
Try to understand this, You, yes, you, you know as much about this Missile that struck Dinpro as any of us…seriously, it is a new weapon to this battle space. What is its number? What are its abilities, is it covered by treaties? You know as much as us.
That’s fantastico, but there it is. (( must get back to work…advice? Read, learn, try to understand how horrible war is…but on occasion, maybe necessary). Best Wishes, Traveller
Traveller
Dear Gloria:
Let me append to my above comment…up to 35% of the armed forces of Ukraine are women. Maybe 20% in direct combat roles. think on this…Amazing. A little off topic but ever week in my travel space I post pictures of women that have fallen…into graves in Ukraine…for the living I post their stories, really brave women. Human beings can be so amazing, women too. I applaud your curiosity, but women too…bravery, honor…this is to be know more than weapon types, etc. Best Wishes, Traveller
Jay
@Gloria DryGarden:
It didn’t cause more damage than a usual missile attack. It’s really only effective if it is armed with nukes. It’s not accurate. Every MIRV warhead has a 150m CEP, (Circular Error of Probability). That means that 50% of the time, the warhead strikes within 150 meters of it’s “target”. Sometimes it misses by as much as another country.
The really only notable thing about this strike is:
ruZZia is banned by treaty to even think of building this missile,
But they did, and fired it.
Jay
@Gloria DryGarden:
There are dozens, but they are to a large point, meaningless.
A 152mm or 155mm artillery round against a proper trench system will have minimal impact. Proper trenches* zig zag, so the blast effect and the shrapnel effect only travel through the trench for a few metres. Bunkers and shelters will be built to withstand a direct hit. 3 layers of heavy timber, sandbags between, a “bursting layer” on top. You might kill one or two soldiers, wound a few more.
The same shell against a market. home improvement store or residential building can kill dozens and wound more, which is why ruZZia aims 70% of it’s shells, missiles and drones, at civilian targets.
*ruZZians live in holes, not proper bunkers or trenches.
Gloria DryGarden
Jay, Traveller,
Thanks for your answers.
jeepers. It’s harrowing to contrast the 3x timber +sandbags bunkers, and flimsy old civilian buildings . Ouch. Yikes.
i get that war has been necessary. I respect deeply the courage of soldiers, men and women, who face battle, and death. The sacrifice. The invasion of a country, the invasion of bodies. Living through that, day after day, witnessing it.
I couldn’t do it. I know friends who tell me they couldn’t do what I do. I’m just the assistant, way less responsibility and less hoops to jump than a teacher. I’m just a negotiator/ consultant/ crafts facilitator, w creative ideas to engage kids when they won’t.
But I already know ptsd, personally, so this war stuff, it really bums me out, I take it personally.
And it is personal. Bodies ripped open, suddenly not alive. Homes and families and basic needs torn asunder. freezing in winter.
if the kids won’t stop their stupid pretend guns and especially the noise of repeat firing, I tell them the grownups see stuff on the TV, real stuff in the news, and it makes us sad. And sometimes-no one has told me not to do this- I invoke the dead squirrel story ( have you seen a dead squirrel on the road, I say, it’s like that, real guns do that, like the dead squirrel and it makes us really really sad)
so, um, we can take the rzzian country to war trial for war crimes and treaty breaking, and they are as likely to attend trial as another supper power country im thinking of…. Right? Is there any recourse? Russia has that cute permanent seat in the UN Security Council…
I took international relations class, poli sci 201, so I know about realism (maintaining an equal arsenal as a deterrent) vs I think it was called liberalism, (the ngos and society building). I understood the need for war type stuff. But I didn’t want it to be so.
you guys understand the meanings of the things that happen, the strategies and numbers and kinds of weaponry, and it’s like you can understand the whole football game of it. And I’m like, oh, they’re running with the ball, oh, now they’re standing around, oh, someone blew a whistle, oh look, a goal, oh, now they’re all piled on top of each other, that must hurt. ( I’m making fun of myself, I understand slightly more than this)
thanks for explaining a little of it to me.
if it doesn’t matter which caliber weapon/ bomb/ flying machine thingy it is, what is the discussion really about. Who overpowered whom? Which nation supplied those things vs these things? What their capacity is? You guys actually Know a lot. The details matter, and like you said, it’s the damage, in the end.
Gloria DryGarden
Adam, grateful for your thoroughness, and including some of the international relations/ strategy/ support from Allies, which gives glimmers of hope, and for so often including the personal human interest angle, and sweet dogs.
it’s a rough subject.
(my tablet might learn the word allies. It keeps changing it to Allie’s…I don’t know Allie)
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Well, since the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) is now defunct, it is no longer illegal for Russia to own intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). Of course, the development of the R-26 “intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)” (the one used against Dnipro) was probably done when Russia was still under the INF Treaty w/ the US, & the Russians called it an “ICBM” when it really is an IRBM to put up a fig leaf of compliance.
The Trump Administration unilaterally withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019 by claiming Russia was not compliant (probably true), & so to better be able to arms race the PRC (which has a huge arsenal of MRBMs and IRBMs) in the “Indo-Pacific”.
YY_Sima Qian
Bibi is not vacationing anywhere except the 5 Eyes countries:
YY_Sima Qian
Getting crowded around the Yi Shen 3 in the Baltics (more through the link):