(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations to help cover her chemo.
Russia started the day with glide bombs over Kharkiv:
Kharkiv woke today to the sound of destruction – a russian missile struck the city center, injuring 19 civilians and damaging dozens of buildings, including an administrative hub.
📷Suspilne Kharkiv
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:34 AM
Tonight it is ending it with another drone swarm:
Damned russian drones expload outside‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:27 PM
⚡️Explosions reported in Ternopil.
Explosions were heard in the western city of Ternopil around 1 a.m. local time, Suspilne reported, alongside reports of power outages in the city.
Ukraine’s Air Force previously warned of large-scale Russian drone attacks targeting various regions of the country.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 25, 2024 at 6:15 PM
Another big Shahed attack incoming to Kyiv, it appears: Monitors say 25-30 of Russian/Iranian Doodlebug attack drones are incoming to Kyiv Oblast via Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts to the east. Ukraine under relentless drone attack – practically every night for more than two months.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:14 PM
Monitors say 100-150 drones are expected tonight. We had 145 last night.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:18 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Fewer Excess Profits Russia Earns from Oil, the Fewer Resources It Will Have to Wage War – Address by the President
25 November 2024 – 19:11
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Rescue operations at the sites of the Russian missile strikes have now been completed. In Kharkiv, 25 people were injured in what was preliminarily an S-400 strike. In Odesa, 11 people were injured, with preliminary reports indicating an Iskander missile was used. These attacks targeted civilian infrastructure, ordinary residential areas. Everyone affected has received the necessary assistance, and I am grateful to everyone who helps. We will definitely respond to Russia for everything it does. It is crucial that these attacks, each one of them, do not go unanswered – not only by us. There must not even be a hint of normalizing Russian terror or becoming desensitized to it. Today, there is a new decision from the United Kingdom regarding sanctions on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. Thirty tankers have been sanctioned. This is an important step, and it would be right for European partners – on the whole EU level – as well as other partners to support such sanctions. The fewer excess profits Russia earns from oil, the fewer resources it will have to wage war. This is a clear connection – a connection that must work for the sake of real peace.
Today, I held a meeting of the Staff. Various issues were addressed, with a primary focus on protecting our infrastructure and energy sector. There were relevant reports and analysis of experience in repelling Russian attacks. The best results of specific units should be extended to all facilities, to all those involved in defense operations. We also discussed the production and supply of drones, missiles, and other weaponry. All weapons-related tasks for this year will definitely be fulfilled, and the same applies to the next year. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a separate report. We had an in-depth conversation covering all key areas of the front as well as the Kursk operation.
And one more thing.
Today, I held several meetings on international activities for the rest of the year. This includes communication with partners, our meetings, and our narratives. Things that must strengthen Ukraine. Europe, America, the Global South, other parts of the world – we must remain united. And together we must bring this war to a just conclusion. This is achievable. Thank you to everyone who helps us!
Glory to Ukraine!
First Lady Zelenska gave an interview to Italian television. The video, with English subtitles, is below:
Lithuania:
Your leaders may call this a “hybrid attack”. That’s cos if they called it an “attack”, they’d be expected to do something about it.
www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n…
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:40 AM
You’ll recall that Russia attempted to blow up several DHL planes and/or planes carrying DHL cargo a few weeks ago.
Here’s more details from The Guardian:
The fatal crash of a DHL cargo plane as it approached Vilnius airport could have been the result of sabotage or an accident, Germany’s foreign minister has said.
A Spanish crew member was killed and three others injured when the German plane crashed into a house near the Lithuanian capital on Monday.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, raised the possibility that the crash had been caused on purpose, telling reporters: “We must now seriously ask ourselves whether this was an accident or whether it was another hybrid incident,” in an allusion to the recent severing of cables in the Baltic Sea that officials have said could have been sabotage.
“The German authorities are working very closely with the Lithuanian authorities to get to the bottom of this,” she added.
Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius later said later that there were as yet “no findings” suggesting there had been an explosive charge on the aircraft.
Germany is already investigating several fires caused by incendiary devices hidden inside parcels at DHL warehouses earlier this year, the country’s prosecutor general has said.
Lithuanian authorities stopped short of linking the crash with that investigation.
“So far, there are no signs or evidence suggesting this was sabotage or a terrorist act,” the Lithuanian defence minister, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, told reporters, adding that the investigation to establish the cause could take “about a week”.
German officials said they would be launching their own investigation and were in “close contact with the relevant institutions here and abroad to get to the bottom of the situation as quickly as possible”, a security source told the news weekly Die Zeit.
The flight was operated by Swiftair on behalf of DHL and had taken off from Leipzig, Germany, before the plane crashed in overcast conditions at about 03.30 GMT, a spokesperson for Lithuania’s national crisis management centre said.
“Thankfully, despite the crash occurring in a residential area, no lives have been lost among the local population,” the Lithuanian prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, said after meeting with rescue officials. She cautioned against speculation, saying investigators needed time to do their job.
“The responsible agencies are working diligently,” Šimonytė said. “I urge everyone to have confidence in the investigating authorities’ ability to conduct a thorough and professional investigation within an optimal timeframe. Only these investigations will uncover the true causes of the incident; speculation and guesswork will not help establish the truth.”
The crisis management centre spokesperson said there was nothing to suggest an explosion preceded the crash. “At the moment we don’t have any data that there was an explosion,” he said.
Lithuania’s counter-intelligence chief, Darius Jauniškis, told reporters: “We cannot reject the possibility of terrorism … But at the moment we can’t make attributions or point fingers, because we don’t have such information.”
The general commissioner of the Lithuanian police, Arūnas Paulauskas, said investigators were considering possible causes, including technical failure and human error.
An airport spokesperson said the plane was a Boeing 737-400. The airport said in a statement that because of rescue work in the area, several departures were delayed and one incoming flight was diverted to Riga.
Earlier this month, Lithuania carried out arrests as part of a criminal investigation into the sending of incendiary devices on western-bound planes. According to Polish and Lithuanian media, the devices, including electric massagers implanted with a flammable substance, were sent from Lithuania to the UK in July and could have been behind a lorry fire outside Warsaw.
Poland and Lithuania, both Nato members bordering Russia, are staunch allies of Ukraine and have frequently warned of Russian-inspired sabotage on EU soil. Moscow has denied any involvement.
In October, after Germany’s investigation came to light, British counter-terrorism police said they were investigating a warehouse blaze in July which was caused by a package catching fire, and liaising with other European law enforcement agencies to see if there was a connection with similar incidents elsewhere.
Hybrid war is also war! Will get worse as long as the West fails to respond. With Trump entering the WH, forget abt unified NATO response. Europe, we’re on our own and we have to face it! Still not clear what happened to the DHL plane downed near Vilnius, but… www.politico.eu/article/euro…
— Jacob Kaarsbo (@jkaarsbo.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:07 AM
From Politico Europe: (emphasis mine)
If not for a delay in a connecting flight, the incendiary bomb would likely have burst into flames in the belly of a plane flying high above the European Union.
Instead, it ignited on the ground in Germany’s Leipzig airport, setting fire to a DHL air freight container.
Western intelligence officials believe the attack, which took place in July, was a trial run by Russian agents who planned to place similar bombs on flights to the United States.
“We have been observing aggressive actions by the Russian intelligence services for some time now,” said Thomas Haldenwang, who recently stepped down as president of Germany’s federal domestic intelligence agency.
“Russia is using the entire toolbox, from influencing political discussions to cyber attacks on critical infrastructure to sabotage on a significant scale,” he said.
The Kremlin has long carried out so-called hybrid warfare against European countries, including disinformation campaigns, hacking, cyberattacks and election interference to destabilize European societies and, in the past few years, push them to decrease military support for Ukraine.
Last week, Germany said that two undersea telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea were severed as a result of sabotage.
“We have to conclude, without knowing exactly who did it, that it is a hybrid action and we also have to assume — without knowing it — that it is sabotage,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
Days earlier, a Russian spy ship, the Yantar, was escorted out of the Irish Sea by the Irish navy after it entered Irish-controlled waters and patrolled an area containing critical energy and internet pipelines and cables.
Russia’s actions have also escalated into outright violence.
Russian tanks may not be rolling into Poland or Estonia, but Moscow’s aggression is getting harder to dismiss. A second parcel bomb similar to the one in Leipzig burst into flames in a warehouse near the British city of Birmingham in July, and German anti-terror police are investigating links to cases elsewhere in Europe.
Nils Andreas Stensønes, the head of Norway’s foreign intelligence service, said in September that he expected the Kremlin to ramp up efforts to sabotage oil and gas infrastructure.
Western officials suspect Moscow was behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia. And German and U.S. officials say they foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer and a major supplier of artillery shells to the Ukrainian army.
While some governments — especially in Nordic and Baltic countries — have tried to raise the alarm, the collective response from the EU and NATO has so far been notably tame.
“We are simply too polite,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in July. “They are attacking us every day now.”
Part of the reason for Europe’s passivity can be attributed to fears in Western capitals about being drawn into a conflict for which they’re not prepared, said Daniel Byman, an expert in terrorism and unconventional warfare at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
“Most countries don’t want to be openly confronting Russia more than they already are,” he said. “They’re worried about escalation, a back-and-forth cycle that will make things worse.”
Even the words used to talk about the attacks are reflective of Europe’s timidity, said Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s outgoing foreign minister.
“Why do we call it hybrid? Because basically when you call it hybrid you don’t need to do anything about it,” Landsbergis told a security conference in Riga last month. “If you call it terrorism, then it implies reaction.”
The limits of NATO
The Kremlin’s brand of hybrid warfare was developed by the Russian General Valery Gerasimov, now the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, according to the Austrian security expert Gerhard Mangott.
“It never just means disinformation and propaganda, but a broad arsenal of instruments, from sabotage to the infiltration and financing of parties in the West to the violation of the airspace of NATO states by Russian fighter planes,” said Mangott.
In Lithuania, Moscow is using disinformation to undermine the planned deployment of a German armed forces brigade, part of a NATO effort to shore up its eastern flank.
“A lot of fake news is being spread, for example that German soldiers raped women and wanted to occupy Lithuania,” said Darius Jauniškis, the head of the Lithuanian secret service. “Russia wants to sabotage the project. We take this very seriously.”
In October, Poland temporarily suspended — with the backing of EU leaders — asylum rights for migrants entering the country from Belarus, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk blaming a spike in arrivals on an effort by Moscow to destabilize Warsaw.
Even at their most dangerous, however, Russia’s destabilization campaign seems carefully calibrated not to trigger a collective response from NATO under the Western military alliance’s mutual defense provision, known as Article 5.
Instead, the Kremlin appears to be slowly ratcheting up the pressure to see what it can get away with. “Russia is testing the limits of Article 5 to stir up uncertainty,” Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker and former general staff officer in the German military, said earlier this year.
NATO countries have discussed a collective response to Russia’s hybrid war, a senior NATO official told reporters ahead of a summit in Washington in July. Even if the attacks don’t qualify as acts of war in the traditional sense, countries could invoke Article 4, which calls for consultation when a country’s security is threatened.
“I don’t think [we can] rule that out in the future,” the senior NATO official said. “Particularly if we were to see a continued worsening and intensification of that kind of activity.”
But for now, there is little appetite in the alliance for confrontation.
“NATO is a defensive military alliance that thinks in terms of peacetime and wartime,” General Thierry Burkhard, France’s chief of the defense staff, told the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier this month. NATO’s tools simply aren’t designed for the gray zone in “the world of competition and contestation.”
The “big problem” with invoking Article 5 in the current situation is that “there is no clear definition among allies about what hybrid warfare means,” said Marek Kohv, a former defense and intelligence official who is now with the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security think tank.
“The other main issue is attribution,” Kohv said. “It’s usually coming a little bit later.”
For example, more than three months after France’s railroads were sabotaged ahead of the Paris Olympics, the country’s intelligence services are still investigating whether Moscow is behind the attack, according to Le Monde.
Another obstacle is the membership in NATO of countries like Hungary and Turkey, “countries that have shown sympathy to Russia,” said the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Byman, making it more difficult for the consensus-based military alliance to make meaningful decisions against Moscow.
Nonetheless, European governments are showing an increasing willingness to attribute acts of sabotage to Russia.
Doing so, according to Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, is the first step in fighting back. “When something happens, just go public,” Pevkur said. “Go show that these guys were hired from Russian services, and these guys conducted these attacks getting the money from Russia.”
Muck more at the link.
World War III was not available for comment.
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Photo of alleged ATACMS strike on Khalino air base in Kursk Oblast, Russia, overnight Nov. 24-25. Taken from approx. 51.745355, 36.257987, looking roughly ENE in direction of aircraft parking aprons at the base.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:21 AM
bsky.app/profile/vcdg…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 2:35 PM
Here’s Tatarigami’s assessment:
Overnight, Ukraine carried out a series of missile strikes on Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast, reportedly using ATACMS missiles. Here’s what we can anticipate based on previous data gathered by Frontelligence Insight
(Don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more updates and imagery)
🧵Thread:
2/ In recent months, the airfield had been spotted to home SU-25 close air support jets, helicopters, and UAVs.3/ For some time, the airfield hasn’t been heavily utilized by Russia in the same way as other air bases. Instead, it has primarily hosted helicopters and Su-25 for close-air support, rather than for KAB deployments like those conducted from bases in Voronezh or Lipetsk.4/ Activity at the base had noticeably decreased in recent days, leaving it unclear whether significant numbers of aircraft were hit. It’s likely the strikes targeted supply depots, air defense and radar systems, potentially temporarily putting the airfield out of action.5/ Since early October, Russians have been fortifying the Khalino airbase by constructing new revetments and reinforcing existing ones with what appear to be concrete blocks. By the time of the strike, the construction seemed to be in its later stages but was not done yet6/ The Frontelligence Insight team has very modest expectations regarding the number of air assets destroyed on the airfield. If Ukraine successfully targeted air-defense assets in the area, it could create opportunities for future strikes with more cheap and numerous drones7/ We should keep in mind that ATACMS strikes continue to target military objects within Russia, despite threats and nuclear saber-rattling PsyOp from Moscow. These threats, just like all previous are aimed to sow fear of nuclear escalation and weaken support for Ukraine8/ Ukraine is likely to continue carrying out ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes within Russia. However, the impact of such a campaign might be seriously constrained by factors like limited missile stockpiles.
Video of tonight’s ATACMS with cluster submunitions strike on Kursk. Filmed by Russian from the Khalino airfield.
At the beginning detonations of cluster submunitions from the direction of S-400 positions can be seen. And then the locotaion of the operator on Khalino airfield, Kursk, is targeted.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 11:32 AM
First confirmed successful ATACMS strike on Russian soil. S-400 air defence system radar and two launchers were destroyed in the Kursk region on 23.11.2024:
«On November 23, 2024, a missile strike was carried out on the S-400 air defense system in the village of Bolshoe Zhirovo, Kursk Region…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:50 AM
/2. «…The strike was carried out by three ATACMS ballistic missiles.
Аir defense system was in a non-combat state. Repair work was underway.
As a result of the strike, a 92N6E radar station and two launchers were destroyed. Five officers were killed (including the commander and chief of staff)…»
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:51 AM
/3. «…The deceased officers:
• Maxim Nikolaevich Solodovnikov, major;
• Sergey Vladimirovich Zavorin, captain;
• Nikita Nikolaevich Pechenkin, senior lieutenant;
• Yusup Adamovich Kodzoev, senior lieutenant;
• Aleksey Maksimovich Podlipalov, lieutenant.»— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:52 AM
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv this morning💔
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:53 AM
Video of the first moments after the strike in Kharkiv today, captured by patrol police cameras.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 2:59 PM
Kharkiv
23 people were injured as a result of russian attackIn the photos you can see a Center for the provision of administrative services
— Mariia Kramarenko (@mariiakramarenko.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 8:21 AM
The grandfather in Kharkiv came to the local administrative service center (TsNAP) after the morning attack, which had been destroyed.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:30 AM
This morning’s Russian strike on Kharkiv injured at least 23 people. The air raid alert was not active at the time of the attack.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 7:31 AM
Toretsk:
Toretsk direction, a new type of combat vehicle. Assault on Ukrainian positions.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 1:24 PM
Odesa:
Odesa
6 people were injured during russian attack— Mariia Kramarenko (@mariiakramarenko.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 8:18 AM
Explosion in Odesa: Monitors say preliminary reports are that city was struck by a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 3:06 AM
Damage to residential area of Odesa after this morning’s Russian ballistic missile strike.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:01 AM
Sumy:
Over Sumy region, border guards destroyed three enemy drones with small arms: one “Shahed-136” and two “Herbera” UAVs.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 9:41 AM
Kopanky:
The warriors of the 3rd Company of the 2nd Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, cleared Kopanky and captured 7 occupiers from Russia’s 1st Tank Army.
Recently, the Russians infiltrated the village of Kopanky and raised their tricolor flag.
t.me/wartranslate…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 9:09 AM
Kherson:
#Kherson Yesterday, 3 injured
🔴 Overnight, Shahid drones attack, missile attacks all over #Ukraine
#Kyiv damaged residential areas
#Zaporizhzhia a child injured
#Mykolaiv infrastructure damaged
#Kharkiv 15 injuredMorning attack on #Odesa residential area
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 7:20 AM
#Kherson
🔴 Drone psychological warfare (psyop) gone wrong.
Iryna has eye-witnessed her neighborhood being struck by Russian artillery—to be followed by drone-dropped leaflets: “Russians are here to liberate you. You are our kin.”
More on #drone #psyop soon.
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:40 PM
#Kherson — Sweden. Such a moving meeting: a mother-and-son team, Britta and Daniel, drive all the way from Sweden to Ukraine to deliver much needed help.
They talk about their drone attacks experience—and the way to fight it, amazingly, with… fishing nets. Yes, for salmon.
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 7:56 AM
It is unclear where in Ukraine this was taken:
The way Ukrainian defenders evacuate their wounded comrades without even flinching at a nearby explosion isn’t some next-level resolve; it’s the result of being on the frontline for far too long and being utterly exhausted by it imo
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:34 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material:
Hello. My name is Eugene and I run Cats on Mars animal shelter in Kyiv
Cats on Mars is an organization that rescues cats from war-torn territories.
During three years of the full-scale war, we rescued more than 300 cats. And continuing to do it— Eugene Kibets (@eugenekibets.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 9:24 AM
Musee asking new visitor to take her with him
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenekibets.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 5:03 AM
Open thread!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
KatKapCC
To quote you: For want of a nail!
I cannot imagine the psychological torment Ukrainians are enduring along with everything else. I know they are an incredibly tough people, but no one should have to be that tough for this long.
Jay
Thank you Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
The US & Germany should be removing all restrictions on Ukraine to attack military targets in Russia, for all of the weapons they have supplied, & supply longer ranged weapons, if only to respond to Russian escalation to [thinly veiled] physical attacks in NATO countries.
The DC “Blob” loves to talk about the “credibility fairy” & “deterrence through overwhelming strength” (as a strategy in & of itself), where is the credibility & deterrence in not responding to physical attacks by Russia on NATO soil?
Gin & Tonic
I know common mapping systems use decimal degrees to six decimal places, and it’s probably not Euan Macdonald’s fault, but it’s comical to see him use the word “approximate” in that context. At the latitudes in question, 0.000001 degree of longitude is less than 100 millimeters on the ground.
Jay
@KatKapCC:
While as Adam has pointed out, we are in WWIII, and it is a global conflict.
Pekka, Glasnost Gone and several others have pointed out, it will not go nuclear.
All the wives and children of the ruZZian elite are busy living their ” hedonistic best lives” in the decadent Western resort cities on money stolen from ruZZia.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: Humorous (in the morbid sense) round up of undercovered FP related news by Van Jackson:
Lindsey Graham’s comment on Ukraine is completely unhinged, but characterizes the Trump era. One hopes Waltz “on the page” w/ Jake Sullivan means he will continue to push support for Ukraine, but probably just means hawkish on Iran & NK, & continue to escalate the Great Power Competition w/ the PRC, & not necessarily confronting Putin.
Ryan
Thanks, as always, Adam.
“The “big problem” with invoking Article 5 in the current situation is that “there is no clear definition among allies about what hybrid warfare means,” said Marek Kohv, a former defense and intelligence official who is now with the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security think tank.”
I mean, isn’t this a form of what we’ve been experiencing during every potential “escalatory” move? Russia barks and we back down? Now they’re threatening nukes again. They did that two years ago, but now we’ve authorized strikes into Russia. I just don’t get the strategic framing or thinking here.