There was a lot of noise made yesterday by Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for reasons of fentanyl and blah blah blah (not an exact quote).
So there are a number of possibilities:
- A fucking liar does something that he says he’s going to do, exactly how he’s going to do it. That would be a first, prices go way up, and people go apeshit about $6 avocados and $3 tomatoes.
- Like a kid touching a stove, he tries a tariff or two, his donors/advisors go apeshit, and he backs off immediately.
- He doesn’t do it at all, but picks on some minor concessions from Canada and Mexico and says “look how my primo negotiation skills got us something for nothing”.
My vote is for 3, but are any of the above really horrible? Mass deportations with concentration camps is horrible. Women bleeding out in parking lots because doctors are afraid to provide life saving care is horrible. Violence against trans people sparked by the climate of hate is horrible. Higher prices suck but they don’t (directly) make people bleed or die.
Part of my reason that I think (3) will happen is that a little information about the problem with tariffs has apparently penetrated the low-information ecosystem and 2/3 of those surveyed in a recent poll think that tariffs will raise prices.
Anyway, it might be the media I consume (which is probably similar to what all of you consume), but I had forgotten how good Trump is at working the media dials by just shitting out some new outrageous claim every day, even though most of what he says will never happen. People immediately dive in on the illegality of Trump doing this (since it violates USMCA (the new NAFTA), that he’ll have to declare a state of emergency, etc. And here I am contributing to it, I guess, though my actual feeling is more like Wonka’s attitude in the image above. I’m still searching for a way to be less reactive to his bullshit but also noting it. Any recommendations that aren’t just tuning out/giving up would be welcome.
brantl
High prices, eventually, do make people die
Chris
It helps that Trump supporters don’t actually care about tariffs. They care about dominance displays putting uppity foreigners in their place. All Trump has to do is claim that his dominance display has worked, point to a couple things that may or may not be related to tariffs and may or may not even be real, and all his supporters will be convinced that either he implemented it and it worked, or he threatened to implement it and that got the desired result. Throw in some chin-stroking articles from the usual suspects in media about how Trump’s madman theory has actually worked and you’re home free.
Barbara
The tariffs in the first Trump go round were targeted, but they were not repealed by Biden, and were allowed to expire on their own.
Tariffs arise out of Trump’s ceaseless need to be seen as dominating everyone around him, in this case allies and especially China. I have no idea what he will do and I almost don’t care. I actually don’t think tariffs (unlike immigration) have captured the public’s imagination. Learning that the cost of propping up Trump’s ego will fall directly on the cost of just about everything they buy will not be popular. How that will be filtered through to him I have no idea.
Lobo
Here is a simple rule from a book I am using to deal with the flood of outrageousness:
Of course, it does not mean to not prepare. Prepare so that you can deal with what comes.
Ruckus
@Chris:
THIS.
shitforbrains is a con artist, even if he is not intending to be one or even has any concept that he could be, or might be one.
IT’S ALL HE KNOWS – Bullshit and Bluster. He’s the 2 B president.
What has he ever done in any way positive for anyone, including himself, other than bullshit? I’m not holding my breath waiting for an answer
sixthdoctor
I plan to take this as an opportunity to do a few common-sense things; review finances and cut some unnecessary spending, get an estate plan in order (something I had been sitting on for years), etc.
Besides that, I’ve had to detach because right now it’s the worst people in the world taking victory laps and I can’t stomach it. I will see what I can do to help groups with harm reduction once zero hour hits (I’m involved with a local collection of faith communities that support LGBTQ+ groups in Baltimore), but for now I have to maintain mental health…
John S.
#3 seems like the most likely option.
His donors and the businesses planning on looting for the next 4 years (often one and the same) are not going to let him jeopardize their windfall profits.
He can still “win” with tariffs by claiming it was all part of his master negotiating technique without having to actually implement any harmful tariffs.
@mistermix.bsky.social
@sixthdoctor:
Always a good idea, and if Trump’s bluster gets you off the dime, then he’s actually accomplished something good.
different-church-lady
1a) Result: fucking morons blame Biden and vote GOP even harder.
RaflW
re: the “working the media dials”, Cheryl was exactly right yesterday:
JaySinWA
The thing that I am wondering about is why there is no talking about how the electoral college could find a way to save us. I know it is a huge non probable event, but there was talk in 2016 and even some in 2020 about faithless electors making a difference.
Of course the numbers make it virtually impossible to change the outcome, but it in the immortal words of Peggy Noonan, “Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.”
Baud
Agree with this post.
Bill K
He did tariffs last time. Then he gave money to farmers and other key supporters to offset them, racking up the national debt. The tariffs did not hurt him personally last time so I expect he will repeat this.
waspuppet
@Chris: Precisely. This may be the dystopian version of hopium, and the only sure predictor of Trump’s behavior (what would a domestic abuser do?) doesn’t really apply here, but there’s a nonzero chance that in late January he shrugs and says “Everything is going so great thanks to
Joe Bidenmy strong manly toughness that I’m just gonna let everything ride.” His cult, which includes most of our wealthy media stars, will certainly buy it.Because the only trait of Trump’s that is even approximately as underrated as his DV tendencies is his utter, utter laziness.
Steve LaBonne
One thing we know about Trump is that he’s absurdly unpredictable in that what he will do depends on the last sycophant he happens to have talked to. It’s not likely that advancing dementia has improved that. This is one of the things that make this waiting period maddening.
Starfish (she/her)
@JaySinWA: Because putting faith in “one neat trick” like the trillion dollar coin, Mueller Will Save Us, etc. has not worked out in the past and we need a real plan?
Ruckus
@Barbara:
Bingo!
shitforbrains is the kid in the back of the class, waiting, hoping that he gets elected class president (or US president) so he’ll be someone, because he is incapable of rational, reasonable, comprehensive, thought and process. He is 10,000% ego, all about being praised and admired for his actual lack of anything positive in any way.
Mom Says I*m Handsome
@Barbara: Trump imposed two major categories of tariffs during his first reign: Section 232, for imported steel and aluminum, and Section 301 specifically against China on a broad range of goods. It’s true that Biden let them stand (a major disappointment to me, as a supply chain manager), but they have not expired. In fact, Biden’s administration has extended or expanded many of the 301 items, targeting specific industries ostensibly to support domestic production of alternative energy as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.
It goes without saying (but maybe it needs saying out loud for those in the back): Tariffs are a blunt weapon that cause way more havoc than the results they’re supposed to produce.
UncleEbeneezer
I keep seeing all these people on Bluesky and elsewhere bitching about “Resistance Grifters” and it feels like a very nebulous category that has become an easy, catch-all for someone you disagree with or are jealous of. It’s incredibly ironic seeing people write:
“Avoid these Resistance Grifters (list of people who get attention, clicks, $ for their opinions/analysis of law/politics in crazy time of Trump” when the person passing judgement and warning us all who we should avoid, is also making their living on attention, clicks, $ for their opinions/analysis of law/issues/politics in crazy time of Trump.
It all feels like “Don’t listen to these grifters! Instead, listen to me and don’t forget to sign up for my Patreon…”
AndyG
Josh Marshall was saying the same thing about Trump’s “ shiny object” approach yesterday: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/our-new-world-of-shiny-objects-rushing-across-the-sky/sharetoken/6a271dd6-f2b4-4324-a83f-608b52d9a354
JaySinWA
@Starfish (she/her): But we’ve never learned from past mistakes, so why now
ETA I have no faith in the electors, but a discussion of how they fail in saving us from ourselves might have some value.
Kineslaw
While #3 seems like the most likely option, #1 would be very problematic.
I run a food pantry in Texas. In March we were ordering for 180 families a week. Now it is 240. The need out there is insane and every $0.25 increase in the cost of items matters. Much of the food bank/food pantry system relies on inefficiencies – overproduction or damage to products during shipping. The increase in efficiencies caused by Covid inflation has already caused issues and tariffs would make it worse.
While having to go from providing 15 pounds a week of produce to 3 pounds a week will not immediately cause deaths, it will start to impact quality life years quickly and permanently.
Soprano2
This is what many of his supporters claim he’s doing, that it’s just a tactic and he’ll never actually impose those tariffs because he’s the greatest dealmaker in the history of the world. Who knows what will actually happen?
feebog
I’m mostly concerned with the effect on the stock market. Not that I’m a billionaire, but the wife and I both have IRA’s and TSPs. We have had a pretty good run during the Biden years and I would hate to see that principal negatively impacted. If we do see a drop, a lot of howling from clueless Trump voters will ensue.
Downpuppy
He’s sold himself on the Magic of Tariffs as a revenue source that somebody else provides. Trump can’t do arithmetic, and plans to balance the budget & cut taxes with duties, like in 1880. So I fully expect him to start trade wars, possibly leading to a worldwide depression at the same time they’re shredding the safety net, deporting underpaid workers, enraging allies, and encouraging dictators to grab territories.
Trump will be busy filling his pockets, rewarding his buddies (including tariff exceptions), punishing everyone who’s ever tried to stop him or just annoyed him somehow, and enjoying it all, to the extent he can enjoy anything.
Trollhattan
Trump 1.0 laid them on like a drunk armed with a tariff machine gun and I find no reason to believe Trump 2.0 does not do likewise. My only question is who are Trump 2.0’s Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro? Trump does no actual work, so….
@mistermix.bsky.social
@UncleEbeneezer: I suggest Oliver Willis’ media list. Read them all then donate to the ones that you think are best. Talking Points Memo is great. ProPublica is great. There are two that are worth your money.
https://www.oliverexplains.com/p/share-me-the-new-media-list
TBone
Tom Sullivan at Digby has a deep dive on this today, featuring Catherine Rampell. Recommend.
https://digbysblog.net/2024/11/26/brace-for-impacts/
Trigger warning: photo of avocado!
bbleh
As to tariffs, I’ll go with mostly (3) but enough of (2) that he’ll SEE IT ON TV, which is all he (and most of his cultists) care about. (I frankly expect this about deportations too, as noted in a previous thread.) As dysfunctional and backstabbing as the people around him are, they almost certainly know at least this: give him a little of what he’s yelling about, make sure it’s all over the tube, and make sure he SEES it. Rather like managing a cranky child.
As to “recommendations that aren’t just tuning out/giving up,” I’m SLOWLY dipping toes back into it, but only a little at first — enough until I start to feel my BP heading back up to stroke levels. I agree one doesn’t wanna tune out completely (as if, buncha junkies), but nothing wrong with taking some months to re-equilibrate. It’s the holiday season anyway, and not much is gonna happen.
And the other thing — as others have noted above and as noted previously — is to focus LOCALLY. Work on yourself and your affairs, maintain your networks — including identifying your close-and-trusted AND reaching out to others who may be feeling isolated — make some plans for the medium and longer term, and just ride it for a while. Maybe in the meantime find a new hobby, or clean out the attic or something.
matt
I watched his performance at the Economic Club of Chicago. His theory is classic mercantilism/protectionism. Companies will stop putting factories in Mexico and Canada to serve the US market. The US will become self sufficient as a result of these tariffs.
Now autarky is a super backwards idea for a superpower that exports finished goods, but it was a popular one with Hitler because he knew he wanted to start a huge war. I don’t know much about Trump’s other mentors.
Trollhattan
BTW, watch for lumber tariffs on Canada. A LOT of our lumber is sourced from there and anybody hoping to see a boom in housing starts….
Scamp Dog
@JaySinWA: No, because I figure that the kind of Republican that works to get selected as an electoral college elector is a true believer, not some wise patriot thinking about what’s best for all the people of our country.
Melancholy Jaques
@Barbara:
He tried to overthrow the government by violence and they either approved or did not mind. They are not going to blame him for higher prices.
John S.
@Soprano2:
His supporters will reverse engineer any batshit crazy thing he does into genius. But the man does have a long track record of talking a lot of shit, and not following through on most of it.
mali muso
Welp, I was already planning to buy a new laptop for the household, but those plans have sped up. Got my eye on an early Black Friday discount at Costco. Seems like tech products would certainly be impacted by tariffs, no?
John S.
@Melancholy Jaques:
I think it’s a rather generous and somewhat skewed through recent events perspective to suggest that Trump will never get blamed for the crazy shit he does.
Or maybe he won the 2020 election after all and this is his third term…
JWR
This morning and for the first time, I caught both CBS and NBC national news reports about tariffs. Both gave pretty good, simple explainers, (that consumers will likely pay the cost), something they refused to do before the election, when all I heard were the most convoluted, bothsides explanations of how they actually work.
weasel
@Lobo: I really like that guidance!
I was just popping in to offer something close to that:
Watch the actions, ignore the words!
Especially be on guard for actions they are going to try to hide, often using outrageous statements about something completely unrelated to distract from what they are really trying to do.
Old Man Shadow
I don’t know what he is going to do. No one does.
But stupid could easily blow all the shit up.
And Trump is really… REALLY… fucking stupid.
frosty
@Lobo: Deal with what’s before you, not what may come one day.
Good advice. Not doing this has made many pundits unreadable. And more than a few comment threads here.
Kay
One thing an “opposition” could do is make a record. Trump made very specific promises to those groups he microtargeted. I didn’t pay any attention to it during the campaign, but Trump voters have since told me about them.
World peace, gas under 2 dollars a gallon, interest rates at 2%, food prices at 2016 levels, tax cuts for someone other than rich people, at least 11 million immigrants deported, the federal budget balanced, and a replacement for Obamacare that is both better and cheaper than Obamacare.
Media is not going to keep this record. They didn’t even cover the promises when he made them. So it would fall to an opposition to keep a record and publicize when Trump keeps none of these promises.
frosty
@RaflW: Cheryl Rofer about BlueSky is right about every news source too.
“Trump’s latest shit talk is filling up the site. We have to do better than that.”
Omnes Omnibus
@frosty: Yes, this is why I have suggested a few times that people think about where their personal lines in the sand are and what they will do if/when any of them are crossed. It does start with the individual. What we can tolerate, what we can’t, and what we will or won’t do when push comes to shove. I don’t think that people should post their red lines here or discuss them anywhere on line. But I believe everyone should think about them.
JWR
@Downpuppy:
I heard that the Magic of Tariffs will make the cost of childcare almost disappear. He said so himself!
VFX Lurker
I work in computer graphics. My aging computer needs an upgrade.
My phone stopped getting security updates last year. It, too, needs an upgrade.
I planned to upgrade both my phone and my PC next summer during the Harris-Walz administration. That way I could get better/cheaper gear.
Now..?
I can’t predict the future, and President Biden’s successors aren’t too bright. So, I’m upgrading my phone and my PC before January 20th, 2025. My parts arrived yesterday, and I’m building my new machine tomorrow.
Melancholy Jaques
@John S.:
Well, he hasn’t yet. He lost in 2020 because his opponent was an anodyne white male. If he had run against a similar opponent in 2016 or 2024, he would have lost.
MattF
One clue (warning: link to Politico) is any use of the word ‘hereby’. It signifies ‘bullshit follows’.
Kay
An opposition could simply repeat Trump’s broken promises over and over for two years. They don’t even have to address Trump voters directly at all. Is gas under 2 dollars a gallon? Are interest rates at 2? Is there world peace? Is Trumpcare in place? Are food prices at 2016 levels? Why not?
mrmoshpotato
@brantl:
Like if you need something to live but can’t afford it because of these stupid orange shitstain tariffs.
Glad to see this said first.
Kay
Trump voters do the funniest thing. When they talk about his first term they say he only had two years because he lost the midterms, hence he kept none of his promises. They will lower the bar into the basement for him. It’s one excuse after another.
JiveTurkin
The tariffs were a non-starter from day one. Even his shitbag advisors know you can’t win a trade war with the whole world.
Anonymous At Work
Mexican President Sheinbaum holds more cards than I think The Convicted Felon realizes. Asylum program “Remain in Mexico” is at her discretion. Deportation flights/buses to Mexico, at her discretion. She could, if she finds human rights abuses from the concentration camp/deportation scheme, even refuse the US to use Mexican airspace or territorial waters.
Kay
When Dobbs came down I worried that Republicans and media would just bury the effects on womens health. Now Texas has joined Georgia on no longer tracking maternal health. Texas shut down reporting when they fell to dead last in the country on maternal health. Texas has huge prestigious health systems so I suppose the fact that they’re killing pregnant women is bad for business.
I know I sound like a broken record but we need some org to start collecting info and keeping records. If someone starts one I will donate. We are not going to be able to oppose this if they succeed in burying any record of what they’re doing.
The Other Bob
4. He doesn’t do it at all, but claims he did. Idiots believe him.
I hope he implements #1 with massive tariffs that kill the economy. Then in 2026 we elect Democrats across the board. I would rather have a bad economy than his other promised cruel policies.
Baud
@Anonymous At Work:
She can also ally with China.
kindness
It’s all a grift. Trump will exempt companies who pay him bribes. Why is this so difficult to understand when it’s Trump’s entire business carreer.
The Other Bob
BTW – The Chevy Silverado crew cab and maybe others is made in Mexico. Lets watch the rednecks favorite pickup go up 25%.
Starfish (she/her)
@TBone: Thank you for that trigger warning.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: That’s a good idea. I’ll keep those bullshit promises in mind for Thanksgiving in case my wingnut relatives unwisely bring up politics. It won’t do any good since they predictably made excuses for the thousands of lies he told during the first term and will presumably do so this time around too. But highlighting the broken promises is important in its own right.
karen gail
Check out Jim Wright on Stonekettle station: he links to his blog page about this.
Stonekettle Station: The War On Tomatoes
jonas
@Kay: The only thing he successfully passed in the first half of his term was the tax cut package, and that was a Congressional Republican wet dream of upper-class bennies that did fuck-all for the average Trump voter, so he didn’t even have that.
And those cuts, coming at a time of full employment and maximal economic output, also played a non-trivial role in sparking the inflation that really took off during the pandemic. Yet another memory-holed “achievement” of Trump’s first term.
Lobo
@frosty: Thank you. I would go further and say it has made most pundits worthless. From Monty Python–Look on the bright side with all the time saved by not reading them. But really who knows. He just throws up sh#$ bombs and has us all worry about what if.
TBone
@Starfish (she/her): *giggles
Ohio Mom
@VFX Lurker: We just bought a washer-dryer combo this morning for the same reasons.
Nukular Biskits
This.
Seriously, some days I’m to the point of just shaking my head and muttering to myself, “You ignorant assholes deserve everything you’re gonna get for supporting him.”
But that isn’t the way to move forward.
Trollhattan
Meanwhile, get ready for raw milk mandates for the nation’s schools.
TBone
@karen gail: I’ve been checking in at The Station for a few days, waiting for word from Stone. Thanks for posting!
Trollhattan
Brace sir Robin.
Starfish (she/her)
@Nukular Biskits: You are already doing what you are supposed to be doing.
For example, you are pointing out that upcoming Mississippi judicial election and getting people excited about it.
Are there organizing events around that?
scav
@Betty Cracker: Make it a party game. Have them write down the exact promise that most determined their support for the orange one and then let them read it out so they can compare notes — presumably gloating. Make sure to gather up the papers afterward so you’ve got the receipts in their own hand for later ammunition.
Starfish (she/her)
@Trollhattan: That’s not real and will not happen.
Can you imagine everyone who would get sued for poisoning kids in schools? Every school district will be broke. Farm subsidies that go into school lunches could go *poof*. The general demand for milk alternatives will go up.
Soprano2
@Kay: I’m planning to take pictures of prices of common things on the Saturday before the inauguration as a record, because it’s easy for people to forget what things cost. I bought eggs last Saturday, they were $3.97/doz at Aldi. That’s expensive for here.
Anonymous At Work
@Kay: To me, the bigger danger is Kennedy and Miller and others really shut down biomedical research in the US and inadvertently cripple the US higher education system. Both because it IS my meal-ticket but mostly because we are world-class in that regard and plenty of the world’s smartest and most accomplished want to come here to work.
The Texas Medical Center in Houston is, collectively, the best in America. Mayo, St. Jude’s, Columbia, and a few other places get more attention but TMC is larger and does more. Now, they’ll be lucky to fill their OBGYN residencies.
Bill Arnold
@Betty Cracker:
Yes, very much so. If he does not enact the across the board tariffs he promised, then he was lying.
If he orders broad, large tariffs, along with carve outs (for a price) for supporters, then he is not implementing across the board tariffs, and he is a liar. And is engaged in heavy-handed socialist-style industrial policy, picking winners and losers. (Or some similar pejorative that resonates on the right).
Promises made, promises broken.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
From the Digby piece:
Ruckus
@UncleEbeneezer:
It all feels like “Don’t listen to these grifters! Instead, listen to me and don’t forget to sign up for my Patreon…”
That’s because that’s what it is. Look at the things his supporters want – laws to get in other people’s way, IOW to give them power. Saying no and I am the bestest is the bullies way of having any power, because they have nothing else. It’s not smart, it’s not leadership, it’s raw power because they have nothing else. It’s hate that they can’t just be rich or powerful or both. It’s why they like shitforbrains, he has what positive? Money. And he lies about that because he really has no clue. And at his age it won’t get better, even if HE was capable of that. And he’s not and never has been.
He’s a negative, never actually adds anything whatsoever positive to humanity in any way, shape or form. Now many people are equals – their addition and their subtraction to living are the same. And some are positives – they add to life and living. Jonas Salk was a positive.
Miss Bianca
I’m in the “tuning out but not giving up” camp myself.
Nettoyeur
@matt: Stalin was and now Putin is big on autarky. They seized and exploited plants etc built by foreign investors. Pretty much the Monhol Horde method. Worked until it didn’t.
JWR
@The Other Bob:
Another thing I heard on one of the networks this morning was this: What happens when an auto part is made out of country, sent here for partial assembly, sent back for something else before finally being sent back here for final installation? Where in the chain is a tariff applied? Does it mean a tariff is applied once, twice, or more, for all the steps necessary, or would the tariff only apply on the final product? Questions, questions! Too bad no one thought to ask about this before the election.
Soprano2
@Trollhattan: I honestly think it won’t make much difference if they roll this stuff back, since it was probably mostly performative anyway. I don’t like the message of rolling them back, but the actual effect is probably not much.
Starfish (she/her)
@Miss Bianca: I am not sure if they are going to do that Denver meetup. But hopefully, you will come visit if they do have it? I know it is a long way for you.
Doc Sardonic
@Kay: Remember the Biden “I did that” stickers on the gas pumps….Bust ‘em back for Trump. Sometimes, purity be damned, when the other side is kicking your ass like a rented mule, you need to co-opt their playbook and run it back at them. Because yours obviously isn’t working.
Betty Cracker
@scav: Good idea!
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@JWR:
What we half-jokingly call the State Truck of Colorado, the Toyota Tacoma, is made in Mexico.
Many, many major automakers have a significant presence in Mexico and you can bet every damn one of their lobbyists will be beyond busy making sure this crap goes nowhere.
Ramalama
Well there’s only one news item in Canada today and it’s the Trump tariffs. Panic. The US is apparently the largest importer of oil from Canada. People getting blustery, though the reporters have been great. Long memories of the first Trump admin, and all kinds of great arguments not normally made by American counterparts. Still…not great news.
Papa Boyle
I stopped clicking on any “Trump says…” story. Doing this has given me more calm and less reflux. A lot less reflux.
I’m not saying everything he says is a lie. But the vast majority of it is. Clicking on those “Trump says…” stories rewards him for lying, and rewards the press for passing it along mostly untouched. And it punishes me with more unearned stress.
My news diet isn’t Trump-free: I will click on articles about things he’s actually done. But anything with something resembling “Trump says” in the title of an article gets ignored.
It’s good to get phone, PC, tablet backups. But also consider how many staples you use which get made in China: shaving razors, toothbrushes, batteries, clothes, etc
Jinchi
@Melancholy Jaques: Trump lost in 2020 because we were in the middle of a pandemic that shut down the economy and left us at 9% unemployment (among many other scandals).
I don’t think he would have won against any of the major candidates. I don’t think Joe was even the strongest contender. (The age question was already a concern back then)
Dangerman
Can’t we cut a deal, impeach the fucker a 3rd time (before Christmas; save Melania from having to say Merry Christmas to anyone) , quick conviction, and then it’s … President Vance? Shit, knew there was a flaw.
I think the idea of tariffs was to get rid of income taxes. Once that sinks into his head that is a worse idea than build a wall and have Mexico pay for it, maybe he will stroke out.
jefft452
I dont think that neither Canada nor Mexico will offer even minor concessions
I compare Trump 2 to Brexit, in that its a gut shot to the economy and US hegemony that we will not recover from
The “brexiteers” claimed that Germany would give the UK whatever it wanted because losing trade with the UK would hurt them
Germany agreed that it would hurt, but that losing the single market to appease the UK would hurt a LOT more
I think Mexico and Canada are in the same position
jefft452
@Melancholy Jaques: Trying to overthrow the government dosent make prices go up at Wally World
Tariffs do
Geminid
From Axios reporter Barak Ravid:
p.a.
Kaiser Family Foundation may be on the case. Guttmacher Institute also.
The info just needs to get out there.
Aziz, light!
@The Other Bob: This goes beyond where pickup trucks are built. All light trucks sold in the U.S. use a lot of foreign-made parts, in the range of 30 to 40 percent. Some of the American trucks use more than the do the Asian ones built in U.S. factories.
Ruckus
@Old Man Shadow:
Actually, technically shitforbrains was not stupid. He is aging out and therefore getting less and less not stupid. He wasn’t all that smart either, which he has proven time and time again. But he was well educated, I just believe he had zero idea what to do with what he had. He’s been a pompous, arrogant ass his entire adult life. Money does that to some people, when they think that the entire basis of life is MONEY. Which he does. He’s just never figured out how to EARN MONEY. He inherited his money, from my perspective he’s never earned a dime. He has been, most of his adult life, a rich child.
Trollhattan
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Last time I car-shopped the VW I looked at was essentially built in Mexico, even the engine per the sticker (usually sourced elsewhere and slapped in on the line).
These rules are phenomenally complicated, as are the rules separating passenger cars from light trucks. Related, Biden tightened the EV subsidy rules to focus on those made with a higher % of US-sourced parts. Donny’s gonna blow those up right quick.
Trollhattan
@jefft452:
Good analogy. Tories are shrieking ATM about the Labour budget but their shrieks would be better aimed at Brexit, the “real enemy.” That’s never happening, of course.
A phenomenal own-goal the UK is unlikely to recover from.
beckya57
I highly recommend @joshtpm.bluesky.social for guidance.
Miss Bianca
@Starfish (she/her): Denver meet-up? When is that?
different-church-lady
@RaflW: Goddammit, people, BLUESKY IS NOT IMMUNE TO ALL THE SAME PROBLEMS TWITTER HAD AND CREATED.
different-church-lady
@JiveTurkin:
We’re sure about that?
different-church-lady
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: At least it’s likely a horse would be thinking, “How the hell do I get out of this hospital?”
different-church-lady
@JWR:
All of them, Katie.
Ruckus
@Kay:
He appeals to them. It’s like they are star struck.
The only question is what in the hell is appealing about him?
In my book that is ZERO, or likely a negative. And now that his brain is timing out, aging out, whatever you want to call it, do any of us think he will do 4 yrs? I don’t think he’s mentally capable of 2 days and will show us that on a daily basis because he’s aging out. All humans that live to an older age do this. Everyone. Some do it far better and some far worse. And I’m an old who has watched this for a number of people over a number of decades. He is aging out and will never be any better than he is today. And that ain’t sunshine or a bowl of ice cream.
Geminid
@Geminid: As of 3pm, President Biden had not spoken about the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire but it sounds like he will shortly, in the Rose Garden.
UncleEbeneezer
@different-church-lady: The problem is: people.
Ruckus
@Betty Cracker:
Yep, it won’t reach most of them but if it even reaches a few, it’s worth the effort. Every little bit helps. And there will likely be far more inflection/reflection points in this term than the last, because he’s aging out. Every human that lives to be an old ages out. Hell some do it before they get old. As the normal end of live gets closer, which happens to everyone that ages out (and yes it is a different age for everyone) life slows down till there is no more progress, no more life. He’s already showing signs. And pompous arrogance makes the journey far more crappy and obvious.
azlib
@jefft452:
THe UK and Brexit analogy does not take into account scale. The US economy is the biggest in the world. Canada nor Mexico can afford losing trade with the US. But politically they will retaliate. No one wins a trade war. I still believe a lot of this is simply performative and is subject to a lot of corruption. As has been pointed out by others, business people will seek exceptions from the tariffs and probably get them as long as they feed Trump’s voracious appetite for money.
brantl
@mrmoshpotato: thanks, it seemed pretty obvious to me. As soon as you make stuff expensive enough people start cutting stuff that they need. They don’t have any choice.
Gloria DryGarden
@Starfish (she/her): we need that Denver meet up soon. There are a lot of us here. And as a sanctuary city, we’re a target, the conversations could be of great interest.
Where do people want to meet? Is Scott’s agenda of rage thinking of hosting still?
Ken
Or we could take a cue from the pro lifers and walk around with posters of dead women literally bleeding from their miscarriages, faces blurred out, which read. “You voted for this.”
Downpuppy
@Dangerman: Tariffs are now the cure for everything, including male pattern baldness. If that doesn’t work in reality, so what? Reality isn’t relevant.
Ramona
@weasel: Do you remember any examples from the first administration on these actions which bullshit statements distracted from? I know there were many. I just have yet to steel myself to remember.
I think watching for the actions might mean watching those who acted. Steve Miller is one. Ken Cuccinelli another. They are still around. His Cabinet once in place are the ones who will do things. I am not familiar with the laws or regulations designed to render their acts transparent. I’m sure they exist. Whistleblowers will matter.
Our joint opposition will unfold along several fronts:
1. Packaging and disseminating our propaganda (which mostly happens to be truth). Our elected members need to start appearing on our liberal YouTube’s and podcasts for one. We must get good at Spanish propaganda.
2. Lawfare: the day after the election, Meidas Touch’s Legal AF Michael Popok announced on his YouTube channel that lawyers were already gathering to figure out how to jam up Trump’s shenanigans.
3. Figuring out the actions they are trying to take and hinder it with propaganda or lawfare, or failing that blunting their actions.
4. Mutual aid societies
5. Who are our allies in the UK, Canada, Mexico? It’s time the international liberal order started to defend itself.
6. Actions to protect us as individuals. Our retirement accounts, our health, FOIA on ourselves if we are naturalized citizens, gathering our papers together.
7. A compilation of allies contact numbers or one contact number which a vulnerable person can call
If anybody else wants to take a stab at classifying the kinds of opposition we can take, I would welcome it.
All the ideas I’ve been seeing are really good. Be great to see them within a structure.
Many may have already done this.
Martin
@JWR: If a blanket tariff then twice. This is why tariffs are usually so complex because that provision would get negotiated into the tariff to only tax the finished good and not the part. If you skip that step, then it gets taxed twice. And a growing chance it gets taxed on the import into Mexico because of retaliatory tariffs.
Starfish
@Gloria DryGarden: There was a thread where at least four people piped up, but I am not sure that they set a date. I am out of town right now.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Gloria DryGarden:
Doubt you’ll see this but yes, I am.
Ruckus
@Barbara:
The absolutely only thing shitforbrains has to show for himself is how much of an asshole he is. His concept of country is that he owns it, and everyone has to pay HIM to live here. He thinks he’s the landlord of the states, that he owns everything and gets to do whatever he wants to make himself the pompous, arrogant ass he doesn’t know most people see him as. His supporters just like pompous, arrogant, assholes. They, like him, think that shows them as being better. It’s humanity wrapped around stupidity and being nourished by bullshit. A fine way to be alive…..
YY_Sima Qian
Trump is leveraging Canada’s & Mexico’s deep economic dependence on the U.S. to extort them for concession. Just like the last time, the farce from NAFTA to USMCA, Canada & Mexico will cave on some measures that gives Trump a win, in order to save the larger trading relationship. There is no simply path for them to diversify from US dependence in the short to medium term. In fact, Mexico has & will stand to benefit from [likely futile] U.S. efforts to “de-risk” & “decouple” economically & technologically from the PRC, by becoming a conduit for PRC exports to the U.S., and platform for PRC investments to serve the U.S. market.
OTOh, many more tariffs are coming, because Trump & his team are convinced that the U.S. can tariff its way to balance trade. Never mind the fact that tariffs will inevitably cause dollar appreciation, which then undercuts any effect the tariffs might have had to restore manufacturing. The U.S. will continue to run massive trade deficits when it is running such high fiscal deficits. The only way broad based tariffs can balance the trade is by cratering domestic demand, & the economy w/ it. Or massive USD depreciation, which is against the monied interests )since most of their assets are priced USD. Like I said, the US cannot have both tariffs & USD depreciation.
Trump also claimed that he would impose an additional 10% tariff over & above any he might impose on the PRC, to force the PRC to stem the flow of fentanyl. Even if it succeeds, that just shifts fentanyl product that serves US demand to India. Like the War on Drugs, there is no attempt to address the sociological root causes of the fentanyl crisis. After all, fentanyl is not illegal anywhere, & the US is pretty much the only country w/ a fentanyl crisis.
Ruckus
@mali muso:
Most everything will likely be upside down because of shitforbrains. And if not upside down at least sideways. For 2 main reasons. First, he’s very much earned the name shitforbrains. Second, he really, really has zero idea how any thing works, except that money is involved.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m not sure they will concede so readily. I mean, they just did USMCA with him, and he’s immediately breaking it. You can’t negotiate with people who refuse to honor the deal.
Mexico could move into that role as you note, or they could seek other economies to grow closer ties to, just as Brazil was a big winner from the last go-around. Mexico could just tell the US to fuck off, they’ll sell their avocados to China or the EU, possibly at the expense of US farmers (most avocado production has already shifted from the US to Mexico because US farmers can’t find labor, so maybe bad example). But China loves our almonds, and that’s definitely a crop Mexico could compete against if they can replicate our fucking weird honeybee service economy.
Bobby Thomson
I plan to mainly point and laugh at the faceless.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: The PRC right now is steamrolling on exports, w/ lackluster domestic demand for imports. It is not an alternative market to the U.S. for the vast majority of Mexico’s exports, not remotely on the same scale, & that will not change unless the U.S. economy collapses from Trumpian misrule, which will probably cause economic collapse in Mexico & Canada.
The U.S. is next door to Mexico, the PRC across the Pacific, & Mexican costs cannot compete against SE Asian for most manufactured goods. Incidents, the automated port the PRC just opened at Chancay, Peru is set to take transshipment traffic from LATAM to the PRC (or E/SE Asia in general) away from Mexican ports (as well as Long Beach).
I expect Mexico to balk at inevitable US pressure to decouple economically & technologically from the PRC, under the guise of preventing banned/tariffed PRC products from entering the U.S. market. Mexico will probably try to minimize such transshipment flows, & even comply w/ rules of origin for PRC inputs into products assembled in Mexico.
However, US policymakers will probably pressure Mexico to refuse PRC investments into Mexico to serve the Mexican market (several PRC auto companies plan to set up factories there, including BYD), as well as match the US tariffs on PRC EVs (as Canada has done). The ostensible justification will be syncing the tariff regimes of the USMCA partners to close back doors, but the real reason will probably be to protect market shares of U.S. marques in Mexico. All that will accomplish will be to slow the green energy transition in Mexico, dramatically reduce availability of affordable autos to Mexican consumers & continue to tie the Mexican market to U.S. market preferences.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: But the New Mexican President sure knows how to push back, at least rhetorically:
Paul in KY
@Kay: Great idea, Kay. I hope our party hangs that all around his neck.