(Image by NEIVANMADE)
It was another long day, so I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.
Here’s the Russian butcher’s bill from the last month’s worth of Shahed drone attacks.
For the third month in a row, the number of Shahed-type kamikaze drones launched by Russia at Ukraine surged to record levels.
According to figures from Ukraine’s Air Force, Moscow deployed a total of 2,576 drones during November, up from 2,023 the month before.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 2:16 PM
For the third month in a row, the number of Shahed-type kamikaze drones launched by Russia at Ukraine surged to record levels.
According to figures from Ukraine’s Air Force, Moscow deployed a total of 2,576 drones during November, up from 2,023 the month before.
And the Kremlin clearly doesn’t intend to let up on the relentless nightly assaults — speaking in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is planning to increase drone production “almost ten times” this year.
In 2023, the Russian army received about 140,000 drones of different types, according to Putin. This year, Putin said, Moscow wants to produce 1.4 million.
This begs the question: How bad could it get for Ukraine?
Ukraine’s air defenses, bolstered by Western-supplied systems such as Patriot and NASAMS, have become highly effective at defending cities from Russian mass missile attacks.
But due to the high price of missiles for such systems, which makes using them against relatively cheap drones highly inefficient, Ukraine developed, and relied on different methods to combat them.
“They have established an approach using mobile fire groups and a huge network of sensors of different types to detect and track these drones,” Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent.
“They are using anti-aircraft guns and machine guns, even cheaper rockets, and these kinds of interception techniques are much more cost-efficient compared to Patriot and other types of air defenses.”
Ukraine has also become more adept at using electronic warfare (EW) techniques to confuse and steer Russian drones in the wrong direction during attacks.
GPS spoofing involves manipulating or deceiving a drone’s GPS receiver by transmitting fake signals, tricking it into thinking it’s in the wrong location and heading elsewhere.
Using both mobile fire groups and EW, Borsari says that only around 5% of the drones launched by Russia actually make it through Ukraine’s air defenses.
But he adds that just as Ukraine has adapted to defending against drone attacks, Russia is also adapting in turn.
When Russia first began deploying kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine in September 2022, Moscow used the imported Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
Since then, Russia has begun manufacturing its own Shahed-type drones and developing new variations.
According to recent reports, Russia has been able to produce a variety of kamikaze drones, among them decoy drones to deplete Ukraine’s air defense, as well as thermobaric and shrapnel ones to inflict maximum damage.
The most significant, in terms of the size of attacks, is the number of decoy drones being employed by Russia.
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported on Nov. 18 that Russian forces are using cheap decoy drones with foreign components to overload Ukraine’s air defense system.
These are reported to be a variation of the Gerbera drone. Made from materials such as plywood and foam, they are reportedly ten times cheaper than Iran’s Shahed drone.
While some versions carry explosives or reconnaissance equipment, some are equipped with neither and are launched alongside their deadly counterparts in order to distract Ukraine’s air defenses.
“Sometimes they’re decoys, sometimes they’re not — it’s all meant to create more problems for Ukrainian air defenses and to waste a lot of resources in tracking, detecting, and engaging,” Borsari said.
According to an investigation by the Associated Press (AP) on Nov.16, Russia has recently begun equipping some drones with thermobaric warheads, normally associated with missiles.
Thermobaric warheads create an intense wave of high pressure and heat that can lead to devastating injuries, including collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, and brain damage.
While controversial, thermobaric munitions are not prohibited under international law.
After a recent attack on the city of Sumy overnight on Nov. 22, Governor Volodymyr Artiukh said the drones used in the strike were equipped with shrapnel munitions.
In addition to the explosive power of the warhead, they blasted out ball bearings from the impact area. Two people were killed in the attack, and 12 others were injured.
“These weapons are used to kill people. Not to destroy structures, just to kill more people,” Artiukh said in a video uploaded to the regional government’s official Telegram channel.
Much more at the links including charts, graphs, and imagery.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Current Government in Georgia Is Pushing the Country into Clear Dependence on Russia – Address by the President
4 December 2024 – 20:14
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief summary of the day.
A report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: the front, our steps to strengthen the directions. Brigade supplies. The Kursk operation.
There was also a report from the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. Budanov reported on Russia’s intentions for the near future and on the situation in Syria – how a shift in the balance of power in Syria could change global developments. And a report was made on the situation in Georgia. And this situation in Georgia, of course, is not just the problem of one nation and not just the problem of our region – how the current government in Georgia is pushing the country into clear dependence on Russia. It is truly shameful – what actions they are taking against their own people. And when Moscow praises these authorities in Georgia, it clearly shows for whom they are now working in Tbilisi and for whom they are dispersing the protests. Definitely not for Georgia. We are developing our legal response and working with European and other partners on concrete actions. I have given instructions to prepare appropriate sanctions decisions.
The Prime Minister also delivered a report today. Nearly 5 million Ukrainians have already applied for the eSupport winter payment. And today, Ukrposhta has joined the program: which means that there will be over 2 million more people who receive pensions and social payments through Ukrposhta – these people will also receive a payment of UAH 1,000. Today we also discussed our cooperation with Europe – the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Our partners have approved investments of one billion three hundred million euros; these are funds for infrastructure logistics, and in particular, it is the energy sector. We are grateful to our partners. We have coordinated our efforts for December with the Government, especially our work with the frontline regions. Everything related to the heating season, financial, energy and security issues.
And one more thing.
I congratulated our warriors on the Missile and Artillery Forces Day and presented them with state awards – Crosses of Military Merit. And honorary distinctions “For Courage and Bravery” were awarded to the 107th Artillery Brigade – Kremenchuk Brigade, as well as to the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade “Black Forest”. Thank you, warriors! I thank everyone who is fighting for our state, for our people, and I thank everyone who is helping us!
Glory to Ukraine!
The US:
⚡️House Speaker rejects Biden’s request for additional $24 billion in Ukraine aid.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 1:29 PM
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Dec. 4 that he will not put to a vote a request for an additional $24 billion in aid to Ukraine following reports that President Joe Biden was quietly asking Congress to green light further assistance to Kyiv before he leaves office.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 1:29 PM
The Kyiv Independent has the details of Messianic Mike’s feckless cowardice:
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Dec. 4 that he will not put to a vote a request for an additional $24 billion in aid to Ukraine following reports that President Joe Biden was quietly asking Congress to green light further assistance to Kyiv before he leaves office.
Roughly $16 billion of the sum could be used to restock U.S. arsenals, while the remaining $8 billion would go to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), Politico reported.
When asked if he would add aid for Ukraine to a continuing resolution to fund the government, Johnson rejected such a move.
“I’m not planning to do that,” he said during a press briefing.
According to Johnson, Donald Trump‘s victory in the U.S. presidential election will “change the dynamics” of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
“It is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now, we have a newly elected president, and we are going to wait and take the new commander in chief’s direction on all that, so I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now,” he added.
Johnson, a Republican and staunch Trump supporter, contributed to a delay in aid to Kyiv last fall by refusing to hold a vote on various iterations of a $61 billion foreign assistance bill, but eventually reached a deal to pass the bill.
The Biden administration is trying to ship in as much aid to Ukraine as possible before Trump, who has criticized military support for Kyiv, takes office in January.
Trump has consistently said he would seek to get the U.S. “out” of the war and bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. While the details of his plan remain unclear, some reports indicate it might entail Ukraine ceding territory and at least temporarily foregoing its NATO aspirations.
Speaker Johnson’s response here shows just how far off the looking glass and through the map the GOP of 2024 is. When given the opportunity of pumping about $16 billion of new investments into dozens and dozens of congressional districts throughout the US via defense acquisition purchases to restock US supplies his response is no.
How will the President-elect get the US out of the war, which it isn’t actually in, you might ask? Reuters has some answers to that question.
WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) – Advisers to Donald Trump publicly and privately are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect.
The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table.
Trump’s advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.
Trump repeatedly pledged during his election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of his Jan. 20 inauguration, if not before then, but has yet to say how.
Analysts and former national security officials voice grave doubts Trump can fulfill such a pledge because of the conflict’s complexity.
Taken together, however, his advisers’ statements suggest the potential contours of a Trump peace plan.
Putin, Rumer said, likely will bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, concessions Trump may offer to lure him to the negotiating table.
Reuters reported in May that Putin was ready to halt the war with a negotiated ceasefire that recognized current front lines but was ready to fight on if Kyiv and the West did not respond.
Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally seized it from Ukraine in 2014 and has since taken about 80% of the Donbas – which is comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk – as well as more than 70% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and small parts of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.
As of last week, Trump had yet to convene a central working group to flesh out a peace plan, according to four advisers who requested anonymity to describe private deliberations. Rather, several advisers have pitched ideas among themselves in public forums and – in some cases – to Trump, they said.
Ultimately, a peace agreement will likely depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy, the advisers said.
One former Trump national security official involved in the transition said there are three main proposals: the outline by Kellogg, one from Vice President-elect JD Vance and another advanced by Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting intelligence chief.
Kellogg’s plan, co-authored with former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, calls for freezing the current battle lines.
Kellogg and Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Their plan was first reported by Reuters.
Trump would supply more U.S. weapons to Kyiv only if it agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia rejected negotiations. NATO membership for Ukraine would be put on hold.Ukraine also would be offered U.S. security guarantees, which could include boosting weapons supplies after an accord is struck, according to that proposal.
In a June interview with Times Radio, a British digital station, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump’s incoming deputy national security advisers, said Trump had told him he would force Putin into talks by threatening unprecedented weapons shipments to Ukraine if Putin refused.
Gorka, reached by phone, called Reuters “fake news garbage” and declined to elaborate.
Vance, who as a U.S. senator has opposed aid to Ukraine, floated a separate idea in September.
He told U.S. podcaster Shawn Ryan that a deal likely would include a demilitarized zone at the existing front lines that would be “heavily fortified” to prevent further Russian incursions. His proposal would deny NATO membership to Kyiv.
Representatives for Vance did not make him available for comment, and he has yet to offer additional details.
Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, advocated the creation of “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine during a Bloomberg roundtable in July but did not elaborate. He also suggested NATO membership for Ukraine was not in America’s interest.
Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, has yet to secure a position in the new administration, although he still has Trump’s ear on European issues, a senior Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters.
That person said Grenell was one of the few people at a September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelenskiy.
More at the link.
Kellogg does have a developed view of how Russia will be made to stop fighting. It relies on a threat to escalate support to Ukraine should Russia fail to engage. One problem is that Russia can string out talks. And that Trump will concurrently need to coerce Ukraine, in the opposite direction.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 6:59 AM
I share the assessment that Russian strategic aims have not changed. However I don’t think that means Russia will reject any deal. They might see a deal as sufficiently advantageous that it’s worth taking as an interim measure. That’d be a calculated gamble that could turn out to be wrong.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 7:04 AM
Just as an additional note, I once got Gorka to turn into a sniveling, groveling pathetic submissive in the space of three email replies. He even threw his wife under the bus to try to get on my good side. Good times.
⚡️Ukraine has ‘hard decisions’ to make about further mobilization, Blinken says.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described mobilization as “critical” for Ukraine, adding that despite having funds and ammunition, people are needed to repel Russian aggression.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 11:26 AM
The unmitigated gall or, perhaps, the lack of self awareness, that it takes to to be part of the senior natsec leadership team that spends three years slow walking, dribbling out, denying, then finally agreeing to send what is requested that either arrives too late or not at all to now lecture the Ukrainians that they need more men and women under arms. When they had plenty of men and women under arms and were begging for weapons systems, weapons, munitions, and other defense material they didn’t get them. According to the Ukrainians much of that has still not arrived. All while Blinken has repeatedly cooked the books so that the US can continue to shovel defense material to Israel in violation of US law.
Moscow:
⚡️ Russia’s Oreshnik strike aftermath was a carefully orchestrated psyop, media reports.
The media blitz following Russia’s Oreshnik strike was a carefully staged stunt designed to scare off the West, the Moscow Times reported on Dec. 3, citing four Russian official sources.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 8:43 AM
From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)
The media blitz following Russia’s strike on Dnipro with a new type of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Nov. 21 was a carefully staged stunt designed to scare off the West, the Moscow Times reported on Dec. 3, citing four Russian official sources.
The attack alarmed and puzzled civilians and international observers, who got used to Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling that has been ongoing since the beginning of the war.
Later on Nov. 21, Putin said in a televised address that the attack was a test of Russia’s “newest missile,” an IRBM called Oreshnik.
During a press conference, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova took a call on stage. The microphones overheard a man saying “not to comment” on questions regarding the new missile.
This was all part of a plan to scare the West into submission, the Moscow Times reported, citing its sources.
The propaganda offensive was coordinated between government, military, and intelligence officials, as well as PR experts, the outlet wrote. It came as a response to the West’s decision to permit Ukraine to strike inside Russia with Western long-range arms.
“This show, which was staged and presented to the public,” was composed of the actual Oreshnik strike, dissemination of footage on social media, and foreign media coverage, a Russian official told the Moscow Times.
Speaking to the outlet, experts expressed skepticism about the feasibility of mass-producing the Oreshnik, saying that the weapon is still being tested and Russia lacks the technological means to mass-produce such a weapon.
This undermines a later threat by Putin that he might strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv by the new Oreshnik.
Imagine that.
Georgia:
🇬🇪 Protesters have been gathering near the parliament in Tbilisi for the seventh night in a row
Meanwhile, security forces have already brought water cannons to the city center.
t.me/c/1305722586…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 1:47 PM
Tonight, on night 7, we saw some arrests and a few gas capsules, but no full-blown crackdown per se. Makes you wonder what’s wrong. The early morning is ahead though! #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 7:43 PM
People already found Facebook accounts of these violent policemen, and at least one that I saw said he worked at Georgian Judo Federation. It’s long been rumoured this was the case among them. Most importantly, we know at least some of them by names and faces! #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 5:41 PM
There are ongoing protests in other cities and towns again. Kutaisi, Batumi, and beyond. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:44 PM
It’s an unbelievable amount of people out tonight. They are on the entire Rustaveli up to the First Republic Square. Everything you see here is the outer edge of the #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Mariam Nikuradze— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:40 PM
There are increasing calls for a general strike, bank sector strikes, etc. Culture sector people such as artists are already announcing strikes.
In Georgia strikes are hard because of no trade unions and conformist businesses in a captured state. #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:38 PM
Russian Dream regime Titushky attacked us at Courtyard Marriott after the opposition meeting this evening. They assaulted and detained Zura Datunashvili, Coalition 4 Change member, Ahali party political council member, and European and World wrestling champion. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:06 PM
JUST IN: A short while ago, another opposition leader, Aleko Elisashvili was detained. Elisashvili has fought in Ukraine and is the one who slapped GD MP Mamuka Mdinaradze over the Russian law. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:31 PM
Irakli Shaishmelashvili, head of the Op Planning Division of the Special Tasks Department (responsible for violent dispersal of demonstrations), has resigned. He cited “family circumstances” in a statement dated Dec. 3. The head of the dep is Zviad Kharazishvili (khareba).
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:31 PM
🧵1/ The police have entered the offices of political parties and the homes of activists — Summary of information for now.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM
2/ The search began at the home of Ilia Ghlonti, a member of the “Daitove” group. After the search, his mobile phone and laptop were confiscated.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM
3/ “Daitove” is one of the largest Facebook groups, with over 236,000 members. It actively discusses protests against the “Georgian Dream” party.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM
4/ After Ilia Ghlonti’s home, the police moved on to the residence of Nancy Woland (Christina Botkoveli), the founder of “Daitove.” After several hours of searching, they confiscated a gas mask, pepper spray, and a phone.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM
5/ The police also entered the home of activist Saba Jajanidze. According to his wife, the police initially deceived them, claiming they were from the gas company when they mistakenly arrived at her mother’s house.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM
6/ Zviad Tsetskhladze, a member of the “Dafioni” movement, was arrested. Details are still unknown.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
7/ The police have also entered the office of the movement Nabiji – Step.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
8/ Meanwhile, the police raided the “Ahali” party office. However, they left after a few minutes without conducting a search and moved on to the “GIRCHI-DROA” office. These parties are part of the @CoalitionGEO
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
9/ During the search of the “GIRCHI-DROA” office, coalition members were not allowed to enter. This was exactly what Nika Gvaramia had demanded, and during this, he was violently arrested and forced into a car.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
10/ A few minutes later, “GIRCHI-DROA” member Gela Khasaia was arrested. He had been physically assaulted by the police at a protest just a few days ago.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
11/ The police also entered the UNM office. After several hours, party member Igor Narmania said that five members of the party’s youth movement were taken from the office.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
12/ According to the party, the arrested are: Davit Gedenidze, Vakhtang Gagnidze, Irakli Ardia, Saba Birkaia, and Mishiko Janikashvili.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
13/ Members of the “Lelo” party, Vaso Kadzelashvili and Vefkhia Kasradze, were also arrested.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM
Kherson Oblast:
❗️Russia is preparing a major offensive on Kherson ahead of Trump’s inauguration: 300 boats are ready to cross the river, the head of Kherson RMA told FT.
Russian forces are trying to seize river islands and move closer to Kherson’s western bank, recently assaulting Kozatskyi Island NE of the city.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 4:08 AM
⚡️Russia gathers 300 boats to cross Dnipro River amid attempted attacks in Kherson Oblast, military says.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 10:46 AM
Russian troops are storming the Kherson direction in an attempt to gain a foothold on some islands in the Dnipro River delta, Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command, told Suspilne on Dec. 4.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 10:46 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian troops are storming the Kherson direction in an attempt to gain a foothold on some islands in the Dnipro River delta, Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command, told Suspilne on Dec. 4.
Russian forces are trying to conduct attacks near the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands, Voloshyn said.
His comments came after Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin told the Financial Times that Russia “wants to launch another offensive” in the direction of Kherson.
Kherson and other regional settlements west of the Dnipro River have been subjected to near-daily Russian strikes since Ukraine liberated the area in November 2022, and Russian troops were pushed to the river’s east bank.
Russia has assembled “300 boats to cross the river” Prokudin said in an article published earlier on Dec. 4.
Voloshyn confirmed this claim, adding that Moscow’s attack attempts have failed and resulted in losses.
“Their goal is to capture a certain foothold, hold it and bring as much of our forces and means as possible,” he said.
Russia is now training its forcing assault groups in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the spokesperson said, citing Ukraine’s intelligence data.
According to Voloshyn, Moscow’s troops are practicing how to cross water obstacles and transfer landing groups.
“There has not been a single successful attempt at this assault or enemy crossing in a month. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are now reliably defending the city of Kherson and Kherson Oblast, and the entire right bank,” Voloshyn told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
Throughout 2024, Ukraine has faced a challenging situation in its defense of the front line, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia has consistently concentrated its offensive potential.
Ukraine has also been building heavy fortifications near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia in preparations for a potential Russian offensive in the region.
New: Kherson’s civilians have been the target of an experiment without precedent in modern European warfare: a concerted Russian campaign to empty a city by stalking its residents with attack drones. Story w/ @samjoiner.bsky.social @inari-ta.bsky.social + @cen4infores.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4fTNzAL— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:09 AM
Ukraine suspects Russia’s drone campaign is part of plan to ratchet up pressure before Trump returns & prep for a push across the Dnipro river. “Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” said Prokudin. Russia assembled “300 boats to cross the river”. www.ft.com/content/31b6…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:47 AM
Kherson people are terrified. One man only leaves at night, dressed in black, speeding on a motorcycle with lights off. Many wait for bad weather. “Rain, wind and clouds keep the drones away. London weather is now our ideal weather.”
Read our story here: www.ft.com/content/31b6…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:48 AM
The killer machines, sometimes by the swarm, hover above homes, buzz into buildings and chase people down streets in their cars, riding bikes or simply on foot. Targets are not soldiers or tanks, but civilian life.
— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:53 AM
Since mid-July, Kherson and its neighbouring villages along the western side of the Dnipro have suffered more than 9,500 attacks with small drones, killing at least 37 people and injuring hundreds more, according to the regional military administration, prosecutors and police.
— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:53 AM
Scores of videos of drone attacks on civilians are posted on Russian military and pro-war Telegram channels. We worked with @cen4infores.bsky.social to analyse and verify 90 of them — a catalogue of the drone onslaught. It suggests Russia is also using civilians as ‘target practice’.
— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:53 AM
From The Financial Times:
There is little more comforting to the people of Kherson these days than the sight of bad weather.
When clouds gather, rain pours and winds sweep through this southern Ukrainian city, locals take their cue to run errands — sensing a pause, at least temporarily, in the terror that has filled their skies.
Kherson’s civilians have been, since midsummer, the target of an experiment without precedent in modern European warfare: a concerted Russian campaign to empty a city by stalking its residents with attack drones.
The killer machines, sometimes by the swarm, hover above homes, buzz into buildings and chase people down streets in their cars, riding bicycles or simply on foot. The targets are not soldiers, or tanks, but civilian life.
“They are hunting us,” said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson regional military administration. “Imagine what that does to a person, the psychological impact.”
Since mid-July, Kherson and its neighbouring villages along the western side of the Dnipro river have suffered more than 9,500 attacks with small drones, killing at least 37 people and injuring hundreds more, according to Prokudin, regional prosecutors and police.
Prokudin told the Financial Times that Russia had deployed some of its “best drone units” across the Dnipro river, which bisects Kherson and serves as the front line. From the bank opposite the city centre, he said, the Russians were launching advanced drone models, refining combat techniques and training new operators for their intensifying invasion.
Scores of videos of drone attacks on civilians are posted on Russian military and pro-war Telegram channels. The Eyes on Russia project by the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR), a London-based non-profit focused on exposing human rights abuses and war crimes, analysed and verified 90 of them in a new report — a video catalogue of the drone onslaught.
The CIR found that the “overwhelming majority” of attacks were either against moving or stationary vehicles — targets that are “difficult to replicate in a test environment”. The suspicion, on the Ukrainian side, is that Kherson was also being used for “target practice”, Prokudin and other officials said.
The devices used, including first-person view (FPV) drones, Chinese over-the-counter Mavics and sometimes larger Russian military Lancets, zero in on vulnerable, everyday locations: crowded markets, petrol stations, cafés, post offices and humanitarian aid centres.
One caught Serhiy, 50, early on a November morning, soon after he left his apartment. He had not heard a drone overhead for almost an hour, but had not reckoned on the Russians leaving something in a pile of leaves: a small anti-personnel mine dubbed the “petal” that flutters down when airdropped.
“I fell to the ground and then I noticed that I was missing my foot,” Serhiy said from a hospital bed.
The Russians pack the petals into tubes that are dangled from small quadcopter drones, then scatter them along streets, courtyards, playgrounds and public squares.
Serhiy said everyone in the Kherson area knows someone who was killed, wounded or lucky to have survived one of the drone attacks. Before his foot was blown off, his 69-year-old neighbour lost an arm when a Russian drone dropped a grenade on top of the man.
Sitting in the bed across the hospital room from Serhiy was 73-year-old Viktor, who also encountered a petal mine dropped from a Russian drone; he lifted his left leg towards an FT reporter to gesture to where his foot had been before it was severed in a blast.
The killer drones are so prevalent in Kherson that many people now carry small detectors that notify them when they are hovering nearby. Oleksiy, a local artist and café owner, keeps one by his side while he brews coffee for his customers. The detector is able to distinguish between drone types.
Others take even more drastic measures to avoid the drones. Volodymyr said he only leaves the house on a motorcycle after sunset, deliberately riding without his headlights switched on to avoid detection from the skies.
The Russian drones, many of which were once used primarily for photography and videography, are equipped with grenades and improvised explosives. Many carry even bigger explosives, including anti-tank mines and RPG warheads that slam into their targets, kamikaze style. They have ranges up to 15km, fly at low altitudes and zip around at speeds of more than 100km per hour, making them difficult to track and take down.
Military vehicles, ambulances, police cars, fire trucks and humanitarian convoys are the favoured targets.
Ukrainian officials suspect the assault is part of Russia’s plan to ratchet up pressure on Kyiv before Donald Trump returns to the White House, accelerating battlefield gains and preparing for a potential push across the Dnipro river.
“Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” said Prokudin, adding that Russian forces had assembled “300 boats to cross the river”.
Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian volunteer army’s southern forces, said Russian troops were trying to seize the river islands and move closer to Kherson’s western bank. They had recently conducted a large attack on Kozatskyi island north-east of the city, near Nova Kakhovka.
Much more at the link including imagery, maps, and graphs.
Needless to say, every single one of these attacks is a war crime.
Kharkiv:
If you thought the sound of an air raid siren was terrifying, listen to the new decentralized alert system tested today in Kharkiv. Its scream doesn’t just warn—it grips you, more harrowing than anything before.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 7:20 AM
Finally, Kharkiv tested the new air raid alert system today!
The city will now have its own air raid alert separate from the Kharkiv region, which is crucial given the ongoing fighting in our area and the frequent alerts due to artillery and
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 11:31 AM
glide bomb shelling at the frontlines.
This new system will reduce the number of alerts in the city, giving our businesses some much-needed breathing room.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 11:31 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Мрію, аби Святий Миколай отримав цього року якомога більше таких листів ❤️🩹
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
I dream that St. Nicholas will receive as many of these letters as possible this year ❤️🩹
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to get cleaned up and rack out.
Adam L Silverman
Also, G&T, I corrected that error in last night’s post. Thanks for catching that.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. Go get some rest.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Weather change has reeked its usual havoc on my sinuses.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: How are your friends in Ternopil holding up.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Life goes on, you know. He’s temporarily back from the east, so it’s good for now.
YY_Sima Qian
Ukraine does have tough choices to make on mobilization, but yeah, it’s rich coming from anyone in the Biden Administration.
Betsy
These fuckers! Oh, it makes your blood boil!!
Why can we not bomb Russia to smithereens? Everyone would be a lot better off with no god-damned Russia!!
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Sympathies. My sinuses too often run my life as well.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ukraine has 8 trained Brigades, with nothing but small arms.
France is training up a new Brigade, with a catch, everything from Uniforms, med kits to Armor is being supplied by France, Germany and Poland.
Ukraine needs weapons and ammo, not mobilization.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Did not know that, thanks for sharing! I think Ukraine needs both more brigades than the 8 on the wings, & much more equipment from the West to equip these brigades.
YY_Sima Qian
Very informative interview by Frontelligence Insight w/ former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy, on Russia’s war driven economic crisis. The war in Ukraine is not just a war of attrition on the battlefield, but one between national economies. If the West is unwilling/unable to shift the war of attrition on the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor, it should at least help Ukraine win the war of attrition of national economies:
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The whole “NATO troops in support roles” performance BS is in theory, to get more Ukrainian Brigades, composed of office staff, logistics, drivers, etc into the “front line”.
But because of a dearth of EU/US/Allied supplied weapons, they would be unarmed.
About 50% of the Ukrainian border with Belarus and ruZZia is “held” by the Territorial Defense Forces, who have 12 Brigades, armed only with small arms, even though they have major combat experience.
They have been used in rotations, but when they are used in rotations, they “take over” all of the heavy weapons the Brigade they are replacing, are using. So wear and tear and maintenance becomes/is a major problem.
YY_Sima Qian
The rising geopolitical tensions everywhere, concomitant w/ rising nativism everywhere, means no liberal democracy is safe from being buffeted by these larger trends:
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam