Medill is out with a new study showing that people who live in news deserts are less likely to ticket split and that news deserts went harder for Trump than other red areas.
While Trump’s national popular-vote margin was just under 1.5%, his margin in news deserts was massive. He won these counties by an average of 54 percentage points. In the few won by Harris, her margin was a comparatively slim 18 points, the analysis shows.
The findings are based on results from 193 of the 206 counties Medill has identified as news deserts, in states where county-level election results are currently available. The third annual State of Local News report, released by Medill’s Local News Initiative in October, documented the continuing decline of local news across the country, as measured by the number of newspapers, circulation, frequency of publication, employment and readership.
The report found that the highest concentration of counties with limited access to local news were in solidly “red” states, such as Texas, Kentucky, Arkansas, Idaho, Montana and Mississippi.
Their study looks at percentages, which is an issue in really small counties (where a few votes changed can make a big difference.). Also, two of the biggest swings in news deserts were Maverick and Starr County, Texas, which are counties in the Rio Grande Valley, where something is definitely going on with Hispanic voters, but I’m not sure it is the lack of local newspapers. Anyway, read the piece and see what you think. Here’s something from near the end of the piece that made me think “news desert” is more of a symptom than a cause:
[…] [Report for America’s Paul] Waldman said, the election results show “that some of the most common victims of the collapse of local news” are the same people who support Trump. They’re victims, he elaborated, because of all the documented consequences of life in a news desert: more political corruption, higher taxes, lower bond ratings, greater social alienation and rising misinformation, as well as the loss of social cohesion when subjects such as high school sports, local obits and community projects aren’t covered.
Another way to put it: news deserts are places the world has passed by, full of poverty and the corruption that often accompanies it. They can’t support newspapers in the same way they can’t support a decent fire or police department, decent schools and all the other public infrastructure that non-poor areas support. These places are fertile ground for Trumpism.
I have a fair amount experience with red rural areas that aren’t news deserts (well, with the way that journalism is going right now, they’re more like news steppes.) My hometown and the little towns around it have always had weeklies that did a pretty good job covering local politics, sports, obits and projects. They generally shy away from national politics. The print daily in the bigger town has shrunk to a few pages every few days and is functionally worthless as a newspaper, and its website is also functionally worthless (crapped up with ads, don’t have enough reporters, everything is paywalled), like pretty much every other newspaper website except for the big national brands (Times, Post, etc.). Still, from the time when I was a kid to today, most of the people in that area vote straight Republican tickets no matter what news they consume. It isn’t just the news diet, in other words.
Since we’re talking about the Hispanic vote, UCLA’s Voting Rights Project has done some analysis that doesn’t use exit polls to see how the Hispanic vote swung overall.
If you look at their BlueSky profile, they have a number of graphs for different areas with big Hispanic populations. I’m sure not going to take any solace in a loss of “only” 5-7 points of support from a constituency that’s a key part of our coalition. It’s a big problem.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
The 5-7 pt loss is a big problem but the most crucial next step is to find out *why* that drain occurred in the first place.
Gloria DryGarden
When I read about the many places in middle America having access only to republican- owned news sources such as fox “news”, and conservative owned newspapers, isn’t this a kind of news desert also?
Im all for promoting progressive media and access to accurate fact based information, in all areas. I don’t have a plan, but I’m listening to those who have ideas and plans for this.
Chris
@Gloria DryGarden:
I mean, in a pretty real sense, the entire mid-2020s United States is a news desert.
We’ve got right-wing media to keep Republicans energized, aggrieved, and furious, and mainstream media and social media to keep everyone else divided, demoralized, and misinformed.
scav
Is it a desert when the inhabitants refuse to drink? Comperlicated, possibly with elements of the chicken or the egg sequencing and very likely varies by location .
WereBear
@scav: My thoughts as well.
Martin
Yeah, I’m going to second that ‘Maybe?’. Like, I get the reasoning. But my local experience likely doesn’t apply since I live in such a young community. I have to assume these areas are pretty above the mean agewise and aren’t likely to turn to their local subreddit as a source.
Aaron
I could see using the word “just” if you’re comparing that swing to the overall vote swing of 6%. That implies that, while there is a big problem, it’s one that’s occurring across multiple constituencies to affect most of the population in a similar way.
Well, that’s what comparing the similar swings might imply; more comparisons should be done to see if that take is supported or not by looking at other trends.
Gloria DryGarden
@scav: do you mean you can take a horse to water, but you can’t make them drink?
Gloria DryGarden
@Chris: just add misinformed to the republican side of that description, as well.
Gloria DryGarden
What can we do going forward, to improve this situation? What are your ideas? What kinds of task groups might spearhead which efforts?
Glory b
And yet, black people in MS also live in those rural “news desert” counties but seem to get our message.
Maybe study them to see what the difference is?
My opinion, white adjacency is seen by some Hispanics as the route to success in the US (well, not without good cause, see Trump’s cabinet full of white people failing upwards), so they don’t want to vote for the party with the black people in it.
KSinMA
@Gloria DryGarden: I’m guessing you have to make it uncool to be ignorant. Good luck!
WaterGirl
@Glory b: I have really been appreciating your voice here lately.
Ignorant and privileged white people can afford to not pay attention. Black people cannot.
Martin
@Glory b: I have a question. I’ve always viewed black loyalty to the Democratic Party, despite many black voters being pretty conservative, and Democrats being only marginally supportive of black issues as a campaign to build a large enough voting block that elected Dems couldn’t afford to not listen to black voters, buying the black community entry to leadership – and that is finally paying off. Do you think that’s an accurate take?
If so, would it make sense for Latinos to compete with the black community for space in the Democratic Party or try and replicate that effort in the Republican Party?
Eric S.
How have these counties voted historically? I’m guessing they’ve mostly voted conservative going back a long ways and probably even when they had local news.
In short, id say it’s correlation at best and if there’s causation it just as likely to flow the other direction.
Eric S.
@Glory b: Prescient. And what W-G said.
Glory b
@Martin: The leadership black elected officials obtained didn’t come without a cost, a reduction in white votes.
Remember, the Democratic party hasn’t gotten a majority of the white vote since 1965, after LBJ signed the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts.
Black loyalty to the Democratic party originates there. The irony is that MLK and his associates wanted those rights not just for us but other protected classes as well.
More than a few of us see other groups taking advantage the vote and equality our ancestors fought and died for in order to disadvantage us
Also, many Muslims and Assians voted Republican (for tax reasons) until 9/11. After that, they leaned towards Democrats, but Muslims started leaning Republican again based on their shared animosity towards LGBTQ people.
BellyCat
My guess for Latinos as well.
K-Mo
@Glory b: preach. (but we are talking about significant fractions of Hispanics, not majorities of them)
Helen
@Chris: A number of years ago, my job involved driving to small towns in rural Midwest. My car radio was on a lot. Many of the larger towns (2000-5000) had AM radio stations. They provided the daily news for their area, including obituaries and school hot lunch menus. But the syndicated programs were almost all right-wing, hour after hour. I think radio is a missed opportunity here. It is much cheaper that TV or print. And people working often have it on. (I know many listen to music, but they will also listen to radio to catch the local news (‘What time does the high school game start?)