Kamala Harris asked the question:
“Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves?”
I hope that anyone who is thinking of doing the former will come to realize that it doesn’t matter how tired we are, or how disheartening it all is. We’re all in this together. The truth is that what each one of us chooses to do, or not do, matters. I walked away from politics for 2 years after the Supreme Court ruled in Bush v. Gore. We don’t have that luxury this time – not if we value democracy.
So this is me saying that come January 15 or thereabouts, I am going to be rolling up my sleeves. I hope there are going to be a lot of us.
In the meantime…
Let’s create – in this thread – the superset of all the things we think contributed to the losses in November.
Let’s not argue – in this thread – the merits of any of them, or suggest that this one was more important than that one.
Let’s create the superset of what BJ peeps believe contributed to the losses in any meaningful way.
After the holidays…
I’ll put up the superset in a new post, and anyone who is of the mindset that they want to do something constructive can contribute to assessing whether item X is something that we could impact going forward. Not whether we should, but whether we could if we wanted to – we’ll worry about SHOULD in the step after that – after we have eliminated the ones we couldn’t impact even if we wanted to.
Some of the action items will have the possibility of impacting the outcome of special elections and the elections in 2026. Others will have a longer-term focus.
I believe there will be multiple fronts where we can have impact, and different people will be drawn to different ones. There wasn’t just one factor that resulted in the losses, and there won’t be just one way to work for change so next time it goes a different way.
Mr. Bemused Senior
OK, just this once.
Starfish (she/her)
I think the Republican effort to get out the Amish vote contributed to the Democratic loss in Pennsylvania.
WaterGirl
I’ll start a running list here.
Ten Bears
You don’t seriously think this short-guy is gonna’ back down?
The Mainstream, Multi-Millionaire Media …
narya
I’ll add: piles of money, particularly targeted at Casey, Tester, and Brown.
Scout211
IMHO, fighting back against the messaging of the Republican party, media and social media is one of the biggest tasks that I see ahead of the next election. I really don’t have any specific ideas of how that can be accomplished but I see that as a key. It would have to be widespread in all arenas.
The Republican messaging machine is very widespread and powerful. And most of what is out there is not even true or factual. Maybe we need to create a message that flirts with factual because we need a good sales pitch both for Democrats and against Republicans.
As Flaubert said, “There is no truth. There is only perception.”
And in our lifetime, Lee Atwater said, “Perception is reality.”
Can we create a message that changes the perception of voters without blaming voters and without blaming the media?
And can we have this important thread without fighting with each other and the Democratic party? Without triangulating Democratic voter groups? Without triangulating other jackals?
Mr. Bemused Senior
@WaterGirl: [since you asked 😁]
My point is, these factors aren’t going away. We have to cope with them.
Oh yes,@narya, and money
comrade scotts agenda of rage
This is a thought provoking piece:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/20/liberal-left-trump-working-class
It’s written by a Teamster so I’m sure that will cause some in here to immediately discount all of it. Nonetheless, it provides some useful context and talking points when examining “the working class”. I deliberately left “white” out of it as the author claims:
One part that resonated with me in a way it wouldn’t have had I not been back in Denver these last 6 years:
Again, the author’s take(s) aren’t any more or less informed that what we’ve been reading and stating ourselves since the election. But they are one angle we as a *Democrats* should be examining going forward…meaning they are a couple of things in there we could add to WG’s general list for what contributed to the loss.
KatKapCC
There are many, but absolutely misogyny, racism, and their toxic lovechild, misogynoir. For a lot of people, one Black president was one too many. And a whole lot of people, contrary to what Keb’ Mo’ recommended, do not want to put a woman in charge.
Chief Oshkosh
Wait, you got a two YEAR holiday and I don’t? I’m outraged! I’m gonna write my Congressman!
Professor Bigfoot
The surest way to win white votes is to rely on anti-Blackness.
Through anti-everybody-but-straight-white-Christian-men-ism.
It PLAINLY works.
WaterGirl
@Scout211:
I certainly hope so!
I hope anyone who wants to argue on the thread will be ignored.
This is making the list. We can check it twice after the holidays. :-)
Any constructive thoughts on what contributed to the losses in a meaningful way will be included.
On this one thread, everything else can be ignored. And I hope it will be.
Scout211
@Scout211: correction/edit
Can we create a message that changes the perception that voters [have about the Democratic party and the Republican party] without blaming [those] voters and without blaming the media?
RevRick
I volunteered to host an effort of the United Church of Christ Environmental Justice Ministry to establish Climate Affiliates in House districts around the nation. My first task is to recruit five or six people to join me. There will be bimonthly Zoom meetings for community building and training. The goal is to get Representatives to protect the grants and tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@WaterGirl: one more to go along with your spirit,
Let’s avoid it going forward.
Kristine
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Looking forward to Kay’s response given the revitalization she saw in her area of the Rust Belt thanks to Biden’s polices.
KatKapCC
@WaterGirl: I will be stern with myself and not engage with anyone who tries to start a spat :D
WaterGirl
Running list #2:
mvr
This isn’t specific. But after watching two campaigns (HRC & Kamala) do really well choreographing large and enthusiastic campaign events my thought is that there is some thing more that needs to be done to get the message our to those for whom that kind of thing doesn’t generate enthusiasm or at least the will to vote. I’m not against the big glitzy things, but we’re missing some other angle needed to supplement all that. The puzzle is what.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Kristine:
When looking at it thru that lens, our typical hot takes have consistently been “It’s all about the messaging, stupid.”
I think another is that the beginnings of what Biden’s two bill’s started isn’t enough to overcome the decades-worth of impact the author of the piece describes when it comes to this snapshot-in-time, aka the election.
The author does ignore those aspects in the piece. It’s a thesis written from a specific point-of-view, funny thing is others in the blogosphere like Booman, have been writing about many of these same things for at least a decade now.
Lapassionara
I think misogyny, but also Trump’s celebrity. I think it is difficult to message against a celebrity who has a cult-like following.
if Trump had not been so dead set against mail-in ballots, he would likely have won in 2020, I think.
West of the Rockies
Gotta add trans/homophobia. Republicans spent one-fifth of a billion dollars on anti-trans ads right before the election.
KatKapCC
@mvr: I think a big issue is that, in general, our side tells the truth and the other side lies, but those lies feel more truthful to certain people than the truth does, because they want to believe those lies. And I do not know, short of federally-mandated talk therapy for every adult in the country, how to counteract that.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Oh, I think I have one although I’m not gonna boil it down to a pithy bullet point:
“Seasonal Campaigning”. We’ve discussed this quite a bit. We don’t setup an apparatus (whatever that may be given our discussions on that have been all over the place) for messaging 24/7/365, ala presidential campaigns come together for the one campaign, then dispersing for 3 years when things are done.
AntiCliche
Editing to make this Running list #3:
SleepyMonster
I think that we have a neat set of policy and government nerds here that get excited about footnotes and headcounts, but its a sort of continual problem that for the overwhelming majority, including 100% of the low information folks :
The last thought doesn’t quite fit with the first three, but cultural curiosity is another sort of defining trait around here that really isn’t as normal as we wish it were.
And as large and intractable as these issues are – kind of ‘human nature’ level things – I think the whole left completely forgets to adjust for them on the regular. Because we *like* being reasonable, and expect others to be.
WaterGirl
Running list #4:
West of the Rockies
Aldo, too, we lost because the MSM sucks, is lazy, and corporatist.
mvr
Also in places like the state I live in – the culture of anti-D self-identification. It was here when I moved here 33 years ago and in many areas it hasn’t gone away. It is part of what all the chest-beating right wing slogans connect with but extends deeper than that.
PIGL
Most people under 60 are marinating in a toxic multifaceted campaign of disinformation primarily on social media. Anti-vax, anti-public health, chemtrail fearing, flat-earth promoting, antisemitic, anti-immigrant misogynist, fascist propaganda. It’s relentless, it’s omnipresent, it’s all most people experience and our side has been doing nothing about it for years.
In my opinion, it was a matter for counterintelligence and national security agencies to have intervened in years ago. It’s also my opinion that it is now too late.
Mike in Oly
Stop moving right to try and shave off a few ‘independent’ voters and instead move left and try and attract the 35% of the electorate that sees no reason to vote at all.
Stop sidelining progressives. Their populist message resonates with young people. Promote them.
Stop running campaigns like it is the 1990s. Evolve!
Fight in every State, every district, every election.
Miss Bianca
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: OK, my takeaway from this article is this: guy completely ignores the Biden administration’s pro-labor efforts, seems to suggest that the “coastal elites” should stop caring about icky things like gender equality, and basically, as an economic policy…start doing what Democrats have, in fact, started doing.
Not to say that I thought the article was worthless as a point of view, he makes some good and some provocative points, but couldn’t help but notice things like, of course he exalts Bernie Sanders (Not a Democrat!) and completely ignores somebody like Elizabeth Warren, most likely because she’s one of those pointy-headed Democratic educamated elites, as well as female.
WaterGirl
Running list #5:
Dorothy A. Winsor
OT, but I thought this was profound enough to share. (I hope it shares)
Another Scott
Excellent topic.
My bias is to try to think carefully about what’s been happening and recognize that much of what we hear about in the news is designed to be infuriating and might not be a true reflection of the real drivers. I try to think about what the other side is doing – in the courts, in the legislatures – more than MTG’s or DJT’s latest media outrage.
With all that said, and while trying not to be too wordy, I think a few things need to be looked at carefully:
Redistricting and all that goes with it:
Incumbency is a huge advantage, and the system continues to be more-and-more slanted to protect incumbents. That means that the monsters cannot have a huge majority when the stars align for them, but it also means that any change at all when we have the majority is extremely difficult (given our diverse coalition).
Yes, redistricting itself doesn’t have anything directly to do with statewide races, but the same underlying machinery operates in statewide races (e.g. how statewide candidates are chosen (primaries vs conventions vs … as with the GQP in Virginia)).
Continued efforts to make voting, and the processes of voting, more difficult:
To be clear – I don’t know where these things would rank in the list of reasons. But my baseline bias is that the monsters would not fight so vigorously for these restrictions, and fight so aggressively against making voting easier, if the did not think that it matters in helping them maintain and expand their power.
Beware sleight of hand.
Looking forward to the other comments.
Thanks for all you do, WG. It’s important and very much appreciated.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Dorothy A. Winsor
And it doesn’t. I’ll try again.
I had what my mother would have called a “spell” t his morning. Dizziness, cramping. I went back to bed and felt fine. I’ll check with my cardiologist on Monday
David_C
My first inclination is to note that race (racism) has played a major role since about forever, but certainly since 1964. My second inclination is wait until we get more data. We also had a pandemic, and it sure seems that public health measures that required varying levels of inconvenience and pain, even with stimulus measures, were not popular with everyone.
WaterGirl
Running list #6:
AM in NC
A billionaire-owned, rightwing infotainment (I won’t saw News) system is hard to overcome – Cable TV, local news, radio, and social media companies are all dominated by rightwing billionaires and pump out their propaganda. We need to be propagandizing in meatspace CONSTANTLY, and outside the official Party. Crowd-fund billboards noting every maternal death, or rise in prices, or the fact that the richest man in the world wants to steal your Social Security, and blame GOP elected officials for it all. Print up stickers that blame Trump/Republicans for increases in eggs, gas, etc and plaster them everywhere. I’m personally writing sticky notes that say, DECENT PEOPLE DON’T VOTE FOR GUYS WHO BRAG ABOUT BEING SERIAL RAPISTS and sticking them on every parked car I see with Trump stickers. It won’t sway the Trumpers, but passers-by see it and it may give them pause.
Bigotry (racial, gender, sexual orientation) is hard to overcome
Conservative Churches (Evangelical, Amish, Catholic) are preaching politics from the pulpit, and that’s hard to counteract. We need to encourage liberal denominations to be more overtly vocal and force themselves to be included in press discussions of religion.
Democrats generally hew to the truth, while Republicans are allowed to paint fantastical visions of both Democrats as evil and feckless and themselves as saints. Democrats need to punch back on everything all the time. People want to follow strength, not mealy-mouthed accomodationist (even if they are right).
Policy don’t mean SHIT as far as winning elections is concerned, I am very sorry to say. But we still need to hammer on the awful results of GOP policies and what they are doing to us. Narratives not statistics.
PsiFighter37
My take is that Democrats really, really need to stop emphasizing diversity so much. I personally don’t think a lot of people have an issue with it. What I think many people – including those of color – take issue with is when it seems like diversity is THE reason for people being chosen, instead of the fact they are extremely qualified. I personally liked how Harris approached the abbreviated presidential run – she did not dwell on being a woman, or Black, or Asian in her run at all. But when you have Schumer and others at the DNC (based on social media posts) highlighting that Biden has picked the most Black women, or the most minorities for judicial positions, that’s really bad messaging. People – especially younger folks – aren’t going to vote more for Democrats because of this; in fact, I would argue that for most young people outside of the Deep South, diversity is taken for granted; highlighting it repeatedly has decreasing marginal utility, and in fact I would argue it’s quite negative marginally now.
There is nothing wrong with saying diversity should be celebrated. But it’s gotta take a back seat to issues that are more pressing and, frankly, relevant in the current times.
dkinPa
@Scout211: Agree with you about the media 100%!
For me, #1 is Fox as cheerleader for Trump. He could do no wrong and Dems are Evil. Rinse and repeat.
#2 Mainstream Media have had their noses out of joint since Biden pulled out of Afghanistan. He had the best record of getting stuff done for ordinary Americans since forever and the media refused to cover it. Or else headlines implying that good news was bad news.
#3 and #4 Racism and misogyny. Americans were just not going to vote for a black woman. They preferred to vote for an obviously demented, seriously impaired white man, a felon and convicted sex offender who kept boxes of classified American secrets in his bathroom. Clinton beat him in their debates. Harris mopped the floor with him in her debate. It didn’t matter. We’ll probably get a national ban on abortion in the next four years and women knew the risk. But too many of them decided to stay home this time because the price of eggs is too high. (Apologies for the rant.)
Thank you for doing this, WaterGirl and prodding us to do better!
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: You are under a lot of stress with Mr. DAW, not to mention what we are all dealing with.
Kristine
@mvr:
I’ve been wondering lately if those celebrity-rich rallies were a turn-off to some. It accentuated the cultural demarcation.
But when the author of the Guardian article states “From crime, to climate, to gender politics, and the border, mainstream liberal opinion is much further from the views of workers than many liberals are willing to admit,” I wish he had stated those views clearly. Because I have a feeling I know what they are, I may be wrong, but if I’m right I’ve no clue how we thread that needle.
Another Scott
@Dorothy A. Winsor: !!!
Make sure you’re not dehydrated. It can sneak up on you.
My mom always had troubles with not enough potassium. Since potassium is essential for nerves to work right, it was a big deal.
So, have a banana too!
Hang in there. I hope it is resolved quickly, easily, and completely.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: I am stressed out. I’ve been working out, which helps. And reminding myself to take it easy. Thanks for the understanding.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Let’s see. Will this work?
ETA: Link looks nasty but honestly it’s worth clicking on. It’s about what we achieve when we act with kindness
Link
Sure Lurkalot
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Part of the prescription is to throw marginalized people and efforts to stem climate catastrophe under the bus.
I can buy that many blue collar workers do not embrace liberal policies but I’m having a hard time groking how standing up for the marginalized and the planet are “cultural values of an aristocratic elite.” The facile go-to that the Dems are the party of the elite especially when the past month has seen plutocrat after plutocrat go kiss Trump’s ring is as ridiculous as claiming that the media has a liberal bias.
Bupalos
In the big picture the ultimate “throwing up of hands” that happens around here has to do with accepting and engaging in a level of moralized polarization that is inconsistent with a healthy democracy. So much of the focus is on the number of people willing or eager to vote for Trump and the post-truth right-wing populists, and the impossibility of getting them to return to reality. So much of the focus is on what a waste of time it is to engage them, think about them, or imagine the entire lot of them as anything other than 2 dimensional evil binary caricatures.
We do that because that’s a very easy, very psychologically comforting, very human thing to do. But functionally, that is throwing up your hands. There isn’t any “work” that you can do to meaningfully affect politics positively if even 30% of the population answered the moralized descriptions of permanent and inalterable racist evil frequently assumed in these spaces. Often that’s the point of the falsification, I think. It’s an excuse for not trying.
kalakal
@WaterGirl:
Have to say that for me these kind of events are a huge turn off. I don’t know what that’s worth as I’m not culturally American but, if as stated, a problem is that you’re percieved as being elitist holding glitzy, star studded, slickly produced events may reinforce that opinion among normies.
Lobo
My list:
A lot of structural stuff rather than Harris faults. I think she overachieved given the structural challenges and penalties she faced. Again, non determinative but of them together crushing.
Repetition: The eight most terrifying words in the English language and one, “I’m a billionaire and I am here to help(myself).”
PJ
@KatKapCC: Misogyny and racism are the two biggest factors that cost us the Presidency this year.
Inflation was also a factor, and though inflation in the US was much lower than elsewhere, most voters don’t know or care about that. All they know is the price of stuff went up, and they blame the President.
Reducing misogyny and racism are long term projects. They are on the ascendancy now in large part due to Trump and his followers. Trump will be gone (one way or another) before the end of the decade, but what to do about his followers?
Believing the President controls inflation, that one is also a long term project that has to start in schools. For the people who won’t pay attention or think, I don’t know what to do about them.
Josie
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Sorry to hear that. Rest and relax every chance you get. A doctor told me yesterday that I should be drinking more water daily. Make sure you are doing that.
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: I agree with this. I also think that we need to hold any conclusions and recommendations that we come up with now very loosely indeed. As I do patronizingly stated in the thread below, I think a lot of people are still processing what happened.
WaterGirl
Comments are getting less list-like, so I can’t keep up with turning input into a list on the fly. That will have to happen after the thread is over.
Not a criticism, I just don’t want people to think there feedback isn’t being included!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Josie: Good point
Another Scott
@Dorothy A. Winsor: 👍
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
wonkie
A large number of Americans are misogynistic bigots who are influenced by Faux and other hate outlets and are fine with fascism. 1. That’s a reality and I think it means that our next presidential candidate needs to be male. 2. Most people think fascism means Nazis so if you call someone a fascist, they just think, “He’s not a Nazi. You are exaggerating.” However, most people understand very well the negative influence of big money. So all of us every day in every way should be labeling the Rethuglicans as the Billionaire Boys Club, the party of Big Money. 3. I don’t know what to do about Faux except to try every way we can to delegitimize it. For example, not let Faux be the default setting for a TV in a lobby or club or anywhere. I made a school change from Faux to a sports channel in the lobby. I routinely change Faux to a different station in my recreation club. (Most people aren’t actually watching–it’s just noise). I post comments on online news outlets to the effect that Faux isn’t news and I share examples of Faux lying on FB to my three hundred some friends, most of whom I know through animal rescue.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: Sorry. Probably not enough caffeine here.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Raoul Paste
Among other things, I like emphasizing the government-corrupting influence of billionaires. Making them the “elites” (and they are) helps associate the elites with Republicans.
Melancholy Jaques
@Starfish (she/her):
Not directing this at you, but I read the article and apparently working to prevent listeria and E.coli outbreaks is “government overreach” according to the Amish and Republicans.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: If anybody else wants to do what Another Scott did – write out your thoughts and then summarize your own thoughts into a list for me, that would be awesome.
Not required for inclusion, but super helpful! :-)
wonkie
Also MOST PEOPLE DON”T VOTE ON ISSUES OR POLICIES. They vote for an entrenched narrative or brand. Republicans have packaged themselves as the party of real true defenders of real true normal good American values and Democrats are the party of minorities and scary people who are different from the good people. It is pointless to talk policy or sense to people who believe that fairy tale. We need a compelling fairy tale to replace it. I suggest Democrats are the party of ordinary working people and we will fight the billionaires who are bought the Republican party and are now buying our democracy. As a step in the right directions, don’t let anyone get away with saying, “Dems have failed working people, Dems don’t represent working people” or any of that bullshit.
West of the Rockies
Thank you for this, WG… removing the proverbial band aid is necessary if a little gross. A forensic dig is needed.
So, we’re told progressive “woke” efforts failed. (Anyone read Chait’s article yesterday in The Atlantic?) Well, I think rightwingers are about to go too far as well and overreach the hell out of things. The resulting brush back pitch from America in ’26 might be delicious.
zhena gogolia
@KatKapCC: I agree with this entirely.
zhena gogolia
@Lapassionara: A white male celebrity.
Lobo
@WaterGirl:
My list above at #50. Both Another Scott and I have similar items.
zhena gogolia
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I hope you feel better!
Sure Lurkalot
@Lobo: Good list. I will second the influence of the info ecosystem.
A good friend asked me how she could continue to be friendly with a fellow gym rat after he was ecstatic about Trump’s victory and told her that the insurrectionists on January 6 were just a bunch of tourists. The guy would probably scream fake news if she had stuck a video in his face.
Yeah, people believe what they want to believe, yada, yada, but there are more and more tools available to make people believe what you want them to, or believe in no truth at all.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@wonkie: Hi there, good to see you. (–ral)
Lobo
@wonkie: I would boil it down to Dem’s represent ordinary working people, Repubs are owned by billionaires.
Timill
Tribalism:
Such people seem impervious to facts.
Nukular Biskits
Okay, this is a flyby (doing chores … just got through cleaning all the recessed lights in the house) and, having skimmed only the post but not the comments, will throw this out for consideration:
That’s not to say we should ignore what’s going on at the federal level but a lot of the stuff that directly impacts our lives happens at the state and local levels. Let’s not forget what’s happening in city council, board of supervisor, local board of education, etc, meetings.
Now, back to the grindstone …
WTFGhost
Not enough trashtalk, that most of us will disavow, with a twinkle in our eyes, because it was *funny*.
Too much fear and doom, not enough mockery and laughter. You need to have *fun*, because if you’re not having fun, it’s too much like work.
Kindness/love/beauty/joy – make those Democratic virtues.
Real family values – childcare, health care, good schools
And find a way to connect to the people who feel ever so lonely. Lonely people are more easily frightened, and angered. This last bit is just some concept that doesn’t really belong, but none of the rest does, either. so, there you go.
PIGL
Starfish (she/her)
@Melancholy Jaques: There is a bunch of interesting farm politics that goes on, and I think that a lot of folks in the Democratic Party are trying to abandon rural areas that are not rust belt towns.
These folks are going to give us all bird flu if they feel like we are not hearing them. For that reason, we need to try to hear them and find ways to build trust.
I think @Nukular Biskits put what I wanted to say more succinctly.
zhena gogolia
@WTFGhost: I don’t know how much more joy and laughter and kindness Harris-Walz could have shown without turning into Fred Rogers.
Oh, and family values up the wazoo.
hrprogressive
Abandonment of the working class by the Democratic Party.
WTFGhost
@West of the Rockies: “Woke efforts” failed? I would say that anti-woke efforts *succeeded*, because there were no woke efforts in the election. Complaints about wokeness apparently resonated, even when people’s own eyes told them a different story.
zhena gogolia
OT, is it a sign of age that I now love Doris Day’s singing?
Mr. Bemused Senior
And what’s wrong with that? 😁
Melancholy Jaques
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
This is where we have to focus our communication efforts, what we talk about when we talk about messaging.
The right-wing propaganda of the last 50 years or so has convinced blue collar voters – more accurately people who do not graduate from college – that the Democrats are the party of academics, artists, and nosy assholes instead of the party that works to make the average person’s life easier.
Over the last 50 years or so, Democrats have worked to improve jobs, wages, and working conditions. We made health insurance and health care more broadly available. We tried to improve education. We created consumer protections. I could go on, but everyone here gets the point.
And Republicans have vigorously opposed every single one of our efforts.
But those blue collar workers giving us the finger do not know any of this.
AWOL
a) White Supremacy. White Supremacy. White Supremacy.
b) Misogyny
c) An unregulated internet and unregulated social media.
d) Gun psychosis/addiction.
e) Anti-intellectualism.
f) The Opus Dei Supreme Court
g) Voter suppression.
h) A media stocked with sociopaths.
i) Transphobic sadists.
j) Citizens United
Geminid
I thought one factor that contributed to our loss last month was Trump’s campaign management team. I’m convinced that if Susan Wiles had run Trump’s 2020 campaign– insted4 of Trump and various sycophants– he would have won then.
We’ll never know, and this particular factor is out of our hands anyway, but it’s still worth mentioning. I also keep in mind that Wiles is now Trump’s Chief of Staff. I hardly ever hear about her but I think Wiles likes it that way
Ed. I’ll add that if we’re talking about bringing in the 35% of the electorate that does not vote, we need to better understand who they are in order to figure out a strategy that does this. “Moving Left” might be productive in this respect but I would not assume so.
WTFGhost
@zhena gogolia: Yeah, you’re right, strike it from any list it might end up on.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: My question is, what can we do about all these rather global issues of the soul that keep popping up on the lists? Racism and misogyny are real problems, but how might we wrap out arms around a concrete action to deal with them?
Have a book study?
Working on ourselves is always a good idea, but I am having a hard time connecting that to the political arena other than long, long term.
wonkie
@Mr. Bemused Senior: Oh thank you!
Michael Bersin
A Ghost to Most
The selfish and self-righteous believe whatever their tribe expects them to believe.
KatKapCC
@zhena gogolia: Honestly…if we held a seance and brought Mister Rogers back to life and nominated him, the GOP would tear him to shreds as a soy-boy snowflake cuck.
Which is how you really know just how morally bankrupt they are.
Melancholy Jaques
@Geminid:
I’m probably going to take some flak for this, but what we need to understand is that those people have decided that they are not going to vote and trying to convince them otherwise is going to take a lot of effort and will almost certainly be a waste of time.
RevRick
@A Ghost to Most: Are you referring to them…or us?
Ella in New Mexico
No hand recounts in Swing Stares where there were razor thin Presidential vote losses for Dems when polls had them winning, coupled with down ticket Democratic blow outs and referendums.
A whole lot didn’t add up in multiple states. Don’t tell me more Democrats voted in down ballot offices but left the top line for President blank, or crazier yet, voted R.
We had grounds to challenge and demand hand recounts in enough places it could have flipped the EC. Ack to us, but because Democrats are so busy trying to be “The Better Guys” we literally rolled over instead of at least doing reasonable due diligence.
My gut says we will find out the truth one day when it’s too late.
Melancholy Jaques
@Starfish (she/her):
You may be right, but all the listening and reaching out and respecting and trying to understand has never worked with anti-vaxxers, gun nuts, Christo-fascists, or conspiracy theorists.
Omnes Omnibus
@hrprogressive: Not picking a fight here, but I would like you to explain this.
wonkie
Another suggestion.
Entitlement is a big element in the Republican mentality and it leads to their proclivity for bullying. As the only real, true good Americans, they feel entitled to speak their minds in public places, on the assumption that no one will speak back.
Let’s start speaking back. Yes, because Rethuglicans are bullies with a history of violence this should be done carefully, but it can be done. For example,
I was in the office of my job, filiing paperwork when the manager stated to the secratary that she was heartbroken about laying off staff but Obama had cut the Medicaid budget to fund monky research. SHe’d heard about this on Faux.
I said,, “Presidents don’t make budgets. Congress does. The Republicans have a majority in Congress and they cut Medicaid spending. Faux is not a news station. Lying is their business model.”
Both women started at me like the furniture had starting talking. I went on and explained that Bush and the Republicans had created a deficit because of the war and the current Republicans were using THEIR deficit to justify cutting Medicaid and Faux, as the voice of the Republican party, was lying to provide cover for them.”
The manager made a sort of snorting noise and walked off. I said to the other gal, “Really people need to use their brains and connect the dots.”
SHe changed the subject.
Another example: This stupid woman was yammering on at the PO about war on Christmas and Christians can’t even say Merry Christmas blah blah bloah,
I interrupted her and said, “No one is stopping anyone from saying Merry Christmas and you are not a Christiam martyr. YOu are a crashing bore who is wasting everyone’s time when all we want to do is get our stuff sent out in the mail. Merry Christmas, and please focus on getting your stuff done.”
The whole damn PO stared at me, but the woman got her stuff mailed and I got mine.
They feel entitled due to their belief in their innate superiority. Don’t let them do that.
Of course, I’m an old white lady, so I can get away with this,
sentient ai from the future
i think the transphobia was a force multiplier because mainstream media sources like wapo and ftfnyt have consistently abdicated their responsibility to portray fact around trans kids in particular. they have endorsed transphobic narratives and in so doing primed the public to be more hostile to a population that is so small as to necessarily have meager political power at best
hitchhiker
Honestly I have no idea. I would point out that we’re talking about an election that could have gone either way, and while Harris was well-funded, articulate, and hard-working, she was also up against that very short runway. Still, it was close. This list is just throwing shit at the wall, for whatever it’s worth.
zhena gogolia
@sentient ai from the future: Yes.
RevRick
@Omnes Omnibus: People with incomes under $50,000 do vote Democratic.
Sure Lurkalot
The makings of a very good, long list, Water Girl!
One wish I haven’t yet seen mentioned is for the Democratic Party to take a hard and vocal stand about getting the obscene amounts of money out of our political system. Musk (alone) reportedly spent $400 million in Pennsylvania alone and the flimsy, porous guardrails left by the corrupted-by-the-same-money Republican justices are worthless.
RevRick
@hitchhiker: +1
KatKapCC
@sentient ai from the future: Yeah. And what they don’t seem to realize is that by agreeing with *some* of the mendacity around trans kids, they are giving cover and legitimacy to *all* of it. Like, I’m fairly certain no one at the NYT believes that schools are giving ten-year-olds genital surgery during recess…but by allowing all the handwringing and BS about “trans trenders” and whatever, they’re putting a gloss over everything that branches off of it.
Geminid
@Melancholy Jaques: I’m not advocating a strategy built around getting non-voters to vote. But I keep hearing people saying non-voters would vote for Democrats if the Party would move “Left” and I haven’t seen evidence for this assertion.
jonas
One thing I’m not seeing in any of these lists, but that you hear over and over and over when Trump voters, including former Biden voters who went for Trump this time, say (and that I’ve heard repeated by Trump voting people I’ve listened to) is the inflation/economy problem. Biden/Harris, and Dems more generally (including myself), just completely missed (or refused to acknowledge) how down people were on the economy despite the numbers that showed strong growth and low unemployment. Yes, some of that was just the steady drumbeat on Fox and in the right-wing echo-chamber media about how horrible everything was, but a lot of people were really feeling it and getting madder and madder about it being hand-waved away.
Yes, for hardcore MAGA voters, it was all about the white supremacy, mass deportations, guns, and misogyny/anti-trans shit, but that’s not who tipped this election. The independents and former Biden voters who went the other way this time didn’t give a shit about all that stuff (or just ignored it) and were just pissed about inflation.
What does this mean? It really is the economy, stupid. And the economy can be mostly vibes. That’s a reality we have to come to grips with and figure out how to regain voters trust on it because they were telling pollsters over and over that that was their biggest issue and Democrats told them repeatedly they were reality-denying idiots who didn’t understand their own household finances.
Gvg
@PsiFighter37: that’s true in a way. I usually check things like how diverse a school I considered is or and employer, to make sure there weren’t any hidden nasty behaviors going on so I could avoid them. It’s kind of a benchmark to show you are baseline normal IMO. Any statistics that show an organization that is still too male or white compared to others around them is a red flag though.
So, it needs to be presented as we reflect all of America this way, and then move on to positions, show that anyone who can be the best qualified gets a chance. Show the black woman getting white blue collar men some help and the white democrat helping Hispanics in his district etc, show we are a coalition that helps each other. Get practical.
sentient ai from the future
also, online betting culture which dovetails with cryptocurrency advocacy. i continue to believe marginal voters in the rogansphere were induced to turn out by betting illegally on the election outcome, there was a lot of money sloshing around in those markets, favoring harris by odds, meaning larger payouts for a team orange win
NaijaGal
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I love this!
Michael Bersin
@wonkie:
bad·ass
/ˈbadˌas/
informal – North American
noun
wonkie at Balloon Juice.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@jonas: [the economy]
Paul Krugman on the vibecession
Dorothy A. Winsor
@wonkie: I admire you no end
Lobo
@jonas:
Please see my list where I mentioned them and their connection to the info ecosystem.
KatKapCC
@wonkie: I know this isn’t germane to the post, but…the whole “we can’t even say Merry Christmas anymore” thing is so utterly aggravating as a Jew. Because like…yeah, I do not want people to wish me a Merry Christmas. To me, that would be like walking up to random strangers and wishing them a happy birthday. And it’s even worse than that because of the history of discrimination, conversion attempts, coopting of our religion for their own nefarious purposes, and you know, eradication. If you know someone celebrates Christmas, go ahead and wish them Merry Christmas. But if you don’t know, then you say Happy Holidays simply to not sound like a pompous bigoted jackass.
But of course, conservatives love sounding like pompous bigoted jackasses.
Ken B
I think a big factor was when the permanent consultant class got more power and started pushing traditional Dem Consultant talking points.
When Walz and other folks were pounding the GOP as ‘weird’, that resonated and the GOP had no counter to it. When the campaign pivoted to a more traditional Dem campaign, the GOP could pivot back to their traditional lies, smears, and bullshit.
TBone
@zhena gogolia: come sit by me!
She is getting me through this terrible, horrible, no good, bad day. I can’t think hard enough to contribute anything of substance here, I’m outta gas today.
KatKapCC
@Ken B: I will forever be grateful to Walz for giving me, in his Midwestern twang, the “skippin’ like a dipshit” soundbite about Musk.
NaijaGal
People have already mentioned most of the things I think contributed to the loss (including racism, misogyny, disinformation, media control by corporations and oligarchs), so I’ll just say the need to create events or spaces that contribute to a *shared* sense of reality/feelings of neighborliness. I’m probably not saying that right. I’ve volunteered with people I ordinarily wouldn’t interact with and it can make a small (positive) difference in how one perceives others.
By the way, what do people think about Kara Swisher’s attempt to buy the Washington Post from Jeff Bezos?
RevRick
@jonas: I like what you’re saying here. If we refuse to take people’s complaints at face value, and always engage in dismissive, reductive claims that it’s really a nefarious x, we will never get heard.
One poster said, “Americans” would never vote for a black woman when 75 million did, which was more than that guy got last time.
Omnes Omnibus
Another thing to think about is the there was a huge anti-incumbent feeling all over the world in 2024. Covid rage and inflation hangovers. We might have overperformed in that particular environment. Is a major retooling warranted? I am not arguing that it is or isn’t. I just think that question should be considered.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Yes, this and more mockery seem good to me.
WaterGirl
@RevRick: Well, this is just step #1.
After the holidays, with a little more distance and hopefully a lot more data, we can get to the next steps of figuring out which ones the data supports and which ones we could potentially impact if we wanted to, in the shorter term and/or the longer term.
Then we can think about things we could do in order to have that impact, etc.
How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
We can’t identify everything that we think had a negative impact, look at the data to evaluate which things really did, decide which things are most important, and decide what to do about them – all at the same time.
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: Yes. Yes, it is.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Omnes Omnibus: so? We’re old.
AntiCliche
it’s not misogyny. if Nikki Haley could somehow have won the Republican primary she would have kicked everyone’s ass including a straight white young male Democrat, because of anti-incumbency sentiment/trashed D brand. i truly believe the low info rural folks are desperate to prove their anti-misogynistic/anti-racist bona fides but they never get the chance because of misogyny and racism in the GOP primary electorate.
her woman-ness and blackness barely ever came up during the whole (brief) campaign. but what did come up was “the economy” which was owned by the schmuck because eggs and mortgages were cheaper back then.
every day we should have been pounding the table about all the other countries that had recessions and massive unemployment post covid and we avoided it. (maybe not a great argument but better than just letting schmuck have it for free, despite terrible ideas like punitive tariffs). and how the only time the schmuck had a challenge (covid) he botched the crap out of it.
that guy got people killed. and our side saved your job.
WaterGirl
@Melancholy Jaques: The only flak you’ll get from me is that in this thread we’re putting all the ideas out there, not evaluating how correct they are or how much relative impact they had.
KatKapCC
@AntiCliche: Okay. I know we are not supposed to argue, and I said I would not, but all I will say is: Declaring affirmatively that racism and misogyny had nothing to do with it is incorrect.
schrodingers_cat
Is it only me or does it bother anyone else to be talked down to, as if we were extremely stupid children slow on the uptake?
Also, what is the purpose of this laundry list?
Melancholy Jaques
@Geminid:
I am in complete agreement with you.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mr. Bemused Senior: She asked. I answered.
matt
The truth gets its pants on:
Controversial COVID study that promoted unproven treatment retracted after four-year saga
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-04014-9
Kosh III
“Fight in every State, every district, every election”
1000% right. IMHO they national party doesn’t care. Plus the fraking EC.
Too many states have been ignored by the National D. The DNC gave a D candidate for District 3 House a whopping $101. Enough for coffee and donuts for one day. $31 to Steve Cohen the only D in the House from Tenn. Another candidate got $543.
The last time a Prez candidate campaigned here was Obama. Hilary came here but it was to fundraise. Mayor Pete did campaign in the primary.
It takes a lot of time and money but one way the R have won is by doing just that all the way down to precinct level–plus a good propaganda apparatus.
Isn’t there a D billionaire who could help? Maybe Bloomburg could buy $100 million of ads on Faux News?
All good suggestions from everyone
Melancholy Jaques
@jonas:
I don’t recall a single Democrat hand-waving it away.
I think there was a lot of inchoate rage produced by the COVID pandemic that became focused on Joe Biden and “the economy” because that’s where people were told to focus it.
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: Neither have I. But this remains an article of faith among the Bernie Sanders inspired left. Trump brought a lot of non-voters into the fray and many of them turned out to be white supremacists for whom the Rs were not right wing enough.
Gvg
One factor that gives the GOP a big advantage over democrats is the permanent conservative church culture where people socialize all year and assume everyone around them is voting Republican so they do not have to hide it or politely not say who they want to win. Since the decline of Unions decades ago, democrats do not have the same, which I think is partly why or politics is set seasonal. Even with unions coming back some, not ALL of them are going to vote democrat and some democrats aren’t that pro union, so the culture is not enforcing a democratic majority vote.
it’s also a question of the moral values we were raised under. I was taught you don’t discus politics much outside your own home, and never at work. I would not assume everyone is a democrat even an environmental club meeting. Outside of here and close family, it’s just not something you raise because it might cause problems.
That might change, but I think it’s been widely the case until now.
What made me mention possible change is work at a University. The Trump people seem to be seriously proposing ending the department of education. That would presumably end all college financial aid and IMO would cause the closure of most of the schools in the country (until it was reversed). People I have reason to believe have been lifelong Republican (gun nuts) are saying this would be a catastrophe and were openly hoping he wouldn’t be elected and are now trying to make backup plans. Multiple higher level people have been saying more, hinting more opinions than I have ever heard around a workplace before in decades.
it’s not just us political watchers who are freaked out. Other people are too.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Omnes Omnibus: asked and answered, eh? Dare I say it… ?
Soprano2
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Interesting piece. What he’s saying without saying it is that Democrats should quit advocating for anyone but blue collar workers, effectively throwing gay and transgender people under the bus as well as urban non-white people. We should abandon teachers to the book banners. He completely ignores everything Biden and the Democrats did for working people and rural areas just like the press did. I guess that doesn’t count because the press didn’t cover it.
wonkie
Both racism and misogyny are ways of “Othering”. The group that “others” makes exceptions to preserve in their own minds an image of not “Othering.” “I’m not a racist! I have black friends!”
Even the most blatant racists have cultivated “friendships” with a black person here and there. Those Latinos who support Trump’s anti-immigrant hate rhetoric are assuming that they are the exceptions. It works the same way with misogyny”. Even men who outright hate women will have a woman who is the exception that “proves” they don’t hate all women.
I think that Republicans could nominate a woman or a nonwhite man for president. They’d be happy to do it because it would “prove” that they aren’t haters. They can do this because they have defined themselves as normal, real true Americans, and–as such–they are the gatekeepers and can decide which of the Others should be allowed into their circle. Democrats can’t choose an Other and expect that Other to be treated as anything but the Other.
matt
@jonas: here’s the thing – inflation came back down, and people are too stupid to understand that means prices stopped going up, not that they came back down. It’s like when they made the Quarter Pounder because people thought that was more beef than 1/3 pound. Now OK, people don’t like being called stupid. Politicians shouldn’t call them stupid and don’t generally call them stupid. But they are stupid. It’s very hard to use facts to argue with stupid, and often Democrats fail when they try.
WaterGirl
@wonkie: Insightful comment about othering.
jonas
@KatKapCC: Furthermore, the co-opting of saying “Merry Christmas” by pompous, bigoted jackasses has ruined it even for those who identify as Christian and would like to wish other (nominally) Christian people a happy holiday. Now everyone assumes you’re one of *those* types (i.e. self-righteous evangelical asshole) if you say it.
zhena gogolia
@jonas: They told you it was the economy. That doesn’t necessarily mean it was. It’s just a “respectable” excuse for voting against the highly qualified Black woman.
kalakal
A lot has been said ( rightly) about the incredibly biased msm* and that Dems only campaign 6 months in 4 years.
Absent a billionaire or too I can’t see us creating a liberal msm counterweight to the likes of the NYT. What we can do is call them out on their bias – the most dangerous papers in the UK are not right wing rags like The Sun, it’s the one’s that wrap themselves in respectability like The Times and The Mail – and to stop buying the product. It’s hard to be ‘the paper of record’ if your readership is less than the population of Gall Bladder, Nebraska.
This has worked to a degree even in the incredibly vicious British Press, The Daily Fail is no longer the voice of the middle class but a joke, the only way The Telegraph keeps it circulation numbers is free copies at hotels.
Social media I think we can hold our own in. Truth Social and Ex Twitter are husks filled with bots and Nazis and are seen as such by normies
As to the second point during Blair’s* period as leader the Labour Party founded a ‘Rapid Rebuttal Unit’ – 24/7/365 they monitored the msm and very successfly countered Tory attempts to set narratives.
The GOP have been setting the narrative for too long and in a ‘vibes’ information environment it’s crippling us
*Say what you like about old Tony, the man was an election winning phenomenon
zhena gogolia
@TBone: I had a feeling you were watching On Moonlight Bay!
matt
@kalakal: This is what Media Matters does, and I think if you look at how they’ve been marginalized you can see the scope of the challenge.
munira
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Thanks – that is so true. Random acts of kindness make a big difference.
Baud
I’m throwing up my hands in the air like I don’t care.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: Sounds like a plan.
Another Scott
@Kosh III: This probably isn’t the thread for it, and I hope we can discuss things like this in future threads, but…
The Democratic party has many, many specialized funding organizations. The DNC’s mission isn’t to fund individual House candidates. They fund party-building efforts and national candidates. The DCCC funds (existing) Democratic members of the House.
It looks like Steve Cohen got at least $1000 from the DCCC. (OpenSecrets only shows a March 2023 disbursement to him. Presumably data lags.)
Wikipedia says TN-9 has a Cook PVI of D+22. It looks like he won with 71.3% of the vote (over 45 points above the Republican).
Even with all the money that was raised, maybe the DNC and DCCC figured he didn’t need anything from them compared to other races?
Dunno.
FWIW. Corrections welcome.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Melancholy Jaques
@zhena gogolia:
Some people expect the voters to tell pollsters “I don’t think a woman should be president.”
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: I’m kind of over gettin’ told to throw my hands up in the air. So there.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
Glide by the people as they start to look & stare
Kosh III
@Another Scott: Thanks.
Honestly I wonder why he got anything as he’s about as close to a sure thing as possible. The money should’ve gone to candidates who had a fight to win.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Yes, wonkie’s comment was insightful, but until we do soul biopsies on people, the only data we have is statistical. X% of white evangelicals, y% of Catholics, z% of black Protestants. And then what do we do with that data?
I frankly have no idea. I have no power to fix other people.
Any more than I have an idea about what to do about Citizens United.
All the issues identified are important factors, but the thing about about rolling up our sleeves and doing the work is that it needs to be done face-to-face, in a local context. It requires touch. Real, physical touch.
Which is why I mentioned my local effort to create a Climate Hope Affiliate chapter to do lobbying of our local Representative, our Senators, and our state legislators.
Join a local NAACP chapter or,
Join a local Democrats (or organize one) or
Join a local anti poverty organization or
Join a Strong Towns chapter
Whatever floats your boat.
Ben Cisco
brantl
Most of what went wrong for us is pivotally affected by Republicans CONSTANTLY messaging “what Dems did wrong”, “the world’s going to hell”, and lying about “what Republicans did right”. They got significant voter demoralization by lying about Dems, and significant mobilization by lying about Stumpy and their clown-show party. It was a target-rich environment, and we should have campaigned on it ALL FOUR YEARS, and in perpetuity, from now on.
WaterGirl
@Baud: We can always count on you, Baud!
Starfish (she/her)
@Melancholy Jaques: I am captain of “yell at the anti-vaxxers” and have been like that for as long as my child has been alive.
When it comes to vaccination, there are like 5% actual hardcore anti-vaccine folks, and like 80% who are questioning because these anti-vaccine folks seem smart and are referring to studies. The outreach and engagement is happening for that second group, to give them a source of “facts” that is not completely nuts.
I don’t have the temperament to do it correctly, but I have talked to the medical people doing the the outreach, and they tell us to go to specific days at the capital to help advocate for reasonable healthcare policy so that the only folks who show up are not the crazies.
Emily B.
One minor tactical point that might have been a missed opportunity. I did text banking for the Dems in 2020 and 2024. In 2020, starting in September, the focus was very much GOTV: Can Joe Biden count on your support, do you have a plan to vote, etc. Secondary ask was for volunteers.
In 2024, the text banking focus was ALL about getting people to volunteer and getting people to rallies. By late October, some volunteers were asking in the chats when we would start GOTV texting. Only in the final weekend was there any emphasis on GOTV—and the texts about rallies and volunteering were STILL going out. (You probably got some of those texts.)
It’s kind of funny that Kamala made fun of Trump for his obsession with rally attendance—while her campaign was just as serious about competing in that arena.
Maybe there’s data showing that texting no longer works for GOTV, or that it didn’t work as well as we thought it did in 2020. But the text banking for Kamala was so successful in driving volunteer turnout and packing her rallies that I can’t help wondering whether it would have been equally successful if it had been directed toward voter turnout.
zhena gogolia
@Emily B.: Interesting. I certainly found the fundraising texts to be counterproductive.
Ramona
@Ella in New Mexico: There should be random large scale well-publicized handcounts as a matter of course to ensure that machine counts are valid within tolerances and to ensure that the populace not develop a black-box view of machine counting. Also the use of Ballot Marking Devices should be restricted to the disabled who need them. My understanding is that Georgia uses Ballot Marking Devices as a matter of course. Ballot Marking Devices are different from devices that actually read a paper ballot.
Ramona
@RevRick: are you in Virginia?
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Emily B.:
Thanks for relating that experience. Many of us figured the campaign’s connection back to Biden would ensure a comprehensive GOTV operation. Interesting to get a differing take as to what might have happened.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@SleepyMonster: Thet last thought ABSOLUTELY relates to the first three. The GQP was all about making their neighbors that were Those Other People from Those Other Places leave for somewhere else.
“Border security” an issue for South Dakota and Ohio? That’s just dogwhistle for “BLEEP go home”, br it Latinx refugees or Blah ones from Haiti or Somalia.
I would also point to sexism in communities of color. Too many voters in those groups could handle a POC in the WH (see: Barack Obama), but a woman? oh BLEEP no.
(Related story: I consulted for a while to a community-building nonprofit in San Francisco’s Hunters Point / Bayview neighborhood. On one visit I got help from one of their volunteers, who happened to be a technically skilled young woman. I mentioned her to our contact there as an additional resource we could work with to make supporting them faster and easier. Next time I was onsite, she was gone: shown the door, with no reason given. They preferred a white man to a black woman for that work, even if the latter was already in their space and demonstrably skilled.)@PsiFighter37: Do you suppose that the “DEI hires” – that is the leaders who are from underrepresented communities – have less impact because the ordinary folks in those communities don’t see themselves in those people? I am a talented, skilled, reasonably successful gay man; but while I think Buttigieg is brilliant, he does not represent anything like my own experience. I suspect there is a lot of that in all those loudly-trumpeted announcements.
chemiclord
The primary issue was simply a thermostatic reaction that’s been going on around the world regardless of where you and your party fell on the political spectrum. Incumbents everywhere have been figuratively getting their throats cut (and depending on the country, potentially literally).
It was going to be hard defending the status quo among an electorate in which the price of eggs was the primary driving decision in who they voted for. The painful truth is that there simply may not have been a path to victory for Harris, considering how it turned out here in America was pretty much the absolute best showing for an incumbent party in this entire election period around the entire world.
Steve LaBonne
I will say again that this was a normal thermostatic election, and a close one (and it will be our turn in 2026 and hopefully 2028). What’s understandably driving us crazy is simply the fact that the stakes were so very very much higher than low-info swing voters and stay at homes were able to comprehend. It’s always a good idea for Democrats to work on what they can do better, but hunting for what they did “wrong” is a waste of time, or worse, even though it’s human nature and happens after every loss. And by the way yesterday was a very significant win for Democrats and a preview of how they can limit the damage over the next 2 years while sowing division among Republicans.
NobodySpecial
I’m not a deep thinker guy, but as someone more connected to the younger generations’ media, I saw that Donald Trump had a Twitch channel so his fans could hear his speeches or events and talk to each other while they did it. As far as I’m aware, Democrats have ceded most of the internet to the GOP, because I didn’t see that outreach except for ads no one likes or clicks on. Gotta meet them where they are, especially groups underrepresented in the coalition.
Citizen Alan
If this is about AOC, i wish she had gotten that chairman’s spot as well. But to be perfectly blunt, the evidence of the last twenty five years is that any effort to reach out to “Progressives” is met with those same progressives moving even farther to the left and continuing to complain about how worthless the centrist corporate democrats are. My observations suggest that most self identified progressives hate the democratic party more than the republican party, because the former is more of an obstacle to their imaginary socialist utopia then the later.
divF
@sentient ai from the future: Transphobia is the latest of a long line of sexual demonization. Eisenhower once said to Earl Warren, when the Supreme Court was considering Brown vs. Board of Education: “These are not bad people. All they are concerned about is to see that their sweet little girls are not required to sit in school alongside some big black bucks.” The only reason this didn’t work as well for demonizing gays is that the message of “gays are weak and effete” works at cross-purposes with “gays are potential rapists”, combined with the fact that it is impossible to add a frisson of sexual terror because women could not be made to be the targets. That’s why the Republicans have been going after trans people (particularly trans women).
I was really pissed when Michelle Goldberg took essentially the Eisenhower position regarding trans persons in a column a few weeks ago.
Glidwrith
@WaterGirl: A LOT of people are so busy with survival that they’re low information by definition. There’s no energy left, sometimes not even for good parenting, except to get up, work, sleep and repeat. It’s why the five second sound bite works.
UncleEbeneezer
@Geminid: Also: if Dems would just run someone younger, more diverse and who is willing to stand up to Republicans and fight, all those non-voters would flock to our side!
Never mind the fact that Kamala was all of those things (she’s every bit as good at reaming Republicans in hearings as AOC, with numerous viral clips) and still lost.
Glidwrith
We also often take for granted that minorities won’t be homophobes, bigots or misogynist. This election was an object lesson with Hispanic men clearly migrating towards Shitgibbon and the nutball black wanna-be governor for Virginia, calling himself a black Nazi.
Oh, and as a white woman myself, we should never believe that a majority of white women are allies.
Steve LaBonne
@Glidwrith: This is why no democracy functions well with the level of extremism and polarization (and resulting existential stakes in every election), and the blizzard of billionaire-funded propaganda, that we’re seeing in a lot of countries. Both things are a product of insane levels of wealth inequality.
Another Scott
ICYMI, Teri Kanefield has some long-ish thoughts on this topic (first part of a series).
Worth a click.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Glidwrith
@Steve LaBonne: Hmm, there’s been plenty of extremism over the centuries, but I’m an extremely poor historian. What breaks the cycle of extremism?
Glidwrith
Some others have observed folks wanted to go back to before Covid, that there’s lots of unprocessed grief. I distinctly recall one of the reasons Biden was elected was because he knows and understood grief.
Steve LaBonne
@Glidwrith: Depression and world war? :(
Timill
@Glidwrith: Guillotines. And tumbrels.
Citizen Alan
@Sure Lurkalot: I hope you told her “you shouldn’t be friends with him because he would probably try to rape you if he could get away with it.”
Glidwrith
@Steve LaBonne:
@Timill: Yikes. Basically mass killing to reset the culture.
I’ve really been hoping it won’t come to that.
Pittsburgh Mike
An important reason we lost is simple: people don’t like our vision of the country. Democrats are viewed as totally focused on people’s identity as the core determinant of their views and behavior. If you’re a person of color or a woman, you’re by definition a lifelong victim of white men.
But my guess is that people don’t like being told they’re powerless victims; I certainly don’t. This is not the same country as it was 50, or even 25, years ago, but we pretend it is. FFS when I was in high school, a married woman couldn’t even get a credit card in her own name. Back in the 70s, nearly all of the gay kids I knew in college were filled with a self-loathing that you just don’t see any more.
And we take stands that are as absurd as Trump’s claim that he won the 2020 election. For example, of course trans people deserve full rights and protections against discrimination. But that doesn’t mean we have to teach children that a boy can change to a girl or vice versa; that’s simply unscientific nonsense.
Of course there are other reasons we didn’t do great. Harris’s speeches were superficial recitals of talking points, rather than the type of engaging speeches that Bill Clinton would make. Her media appearances were boring; you knew exactly what she’d say.
But I still think the heart of the problem is that people don’t recognize themselves in our description of Americans.
Steve LaBonne
@Glidwrith: Thomas Piketty basically demonstrated in Capital in the 21st Century that historically, serious reversals of inequality have only occurred through massive destruction of capital from very bad things happening. :(
Emily B.
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: All those volunteers knocked a LOT of doors, which was great. But it’s also harder to get people to actually come to the door these days because of Ring and similar video security systems. Going forward, Dems should probably think about new ways of meeting voters face-to-face.
Once again, technology makes it easier for people to isolate themselves.
Starfish (she/her)
@Emily B.: All of the political texting goes to my spam messages. I think the postcards and volunteering increased the enthusiasm of the enthusiastic, but they didn’t bring in anyone who wasn’t in.
Timill
@Glidwrith: Yup. It’s not good for anyone, unless you’re Napoleon or Lenin. Not something you want to live through in real life.
WaterGirl
@NobodySpecial: I was not aware of that, and it seems quite important.
Another Scott
@NobodySpecial: https://www.twitch.tv/kamalaharris
Maybe they didn’t do it well, no idea, but they seemed to be there.
FWIW.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Sally
@KatKapCC: “Truthiness”.
TurnItOffAndOnAgain
@Pittsburgh Mike:
I’m personally frustrated with this idea because it sails merrily past the fact that we can reassess how we present ourselves, how we frame the debate, the issues, ourselves or our opponents (“That’s just weird!”) without necessarily having to throw the vulnerable under the bus.
Politics isn’t about what you do, it’s how you look, and if we look good enough, it doesn’t matter if we’re doing things that bigots would bitch about. Especially if we get ahead of them in the PR wars.
“That nice young John Johnson wants to give all my money to immigrants? Why, I don’t believe that for a minute. He’s just as sweet natured and humble as my own young Julius, and when I looked in his eyes I could tell he had my best interests at heart.”
You know, that kind of BS. We can candy-coat the medicine to get people to swallow. We don’t have to lose opportunities because we can’t see ourselves as anything but above the theatrics and emotional storytelling.
Yeah, the MSM media is against us, and it would be hard as hell. Still, until we actually try that instead of bemoaning that the same old strategies are getting progressively less effective as the political landscape devolves and leaves them in the dust, I’m not ready to throw my hands up and declare everything hopeless.
@UncleEbeneezer:
Or, to frame it another way, Kamala had about half a year to run, and she was black, and she was a woman, and she was running in a year where anti-incumbent sentiment was all the rage, and she still only barely lost.
Sally
@AM in NC: I agree with this more aggressive advertising approach. I have often thought that Dems should be plastering factories and roads with signs – This factory was funded by Democrats, by Joe Biden, by your local D reps. It was opposed by your R reps. Republicans did not want you to have a good paying job here. Trump insists on signing checks he doesn’t pay for, R’s take credit for jobs they opposed, and get away with it because there is no counter to it.
Sally
@dkinPa: They wanted to vote for an “entertainer”. For a carnival barker.
Sally
@Omnes Omnibus: Democrats are the party of the working class. Republicans are the party of scabs, of exploitative bosses, low wages and weak regulations.
Sally
@wonkie: This is exactly what Prof Snyder means by “Stand Out”. Thank you.
FelonyGovt
Late to this thread, and some excellent points were made here. I would add the following:
Kayla Rudbek
@hitchhiker: yes to your last one, make propaganda that works for us instead of against us. Get Madison Avenue on our side instead of working against us. If I was working in TV and/or movies, I’d be green lighting modern remakes of Elmer Gantry, The Scarlet Letter, Galileo v. Rome, and finally getting Heinlein’s Revolt in 2100 on screen (that one might work better as a video game where you could play the different characters).
Kayla Rudbek
@jonas: do measures of the economy include rent/housing? Make sure you are measuring what’s actually important first and then you can assess whether the economy is doing well.
FreeThinkingRedneck
Yeah… Sorry, they bought it. Now they can live with it. Color me gone
Another Scott
@Kayla Rudbek:
The CPI does include housing and the housing component started increasing a lot in mid-2021.
Excluding housing, inflation was back to previous trends by the fall of 2022.
I didn’t look at retail egg prices, but there’s probably a graph for them at FRED too. ;-)
HTH!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Jacel
I would add, address the 24/7/52/4 Trumpist messages delivered by radio. The new wrinkle in this is they’ve got results from investment in Spanish-language radio programming, with music-entertainment channels frequently interlaced with right-wing messaging. A direct investment in that sort of station from the left might still counter the right-wing headway in that community.
In any case, more monitoring of all RW radio presence (with hate talk and religious stations) for its content would give early awareness of the prevalent messages that must be countered in many people’s minds. I’m sure that a “price of eggs” drumbeat was underway on radio long before the “major” media grabbed onto it.
brantl
@Bupalos: you think people are attributing it to evil, when they’re actually attributing it to narcissistic, stupid and lazy. You can often fix it by curing one or two of those things.
wjca
Take a hard look at those 37 districts. In some, presumably, the Democratic candidate was “more progressive”; in others, “more centerist.” Which ones did better?
Yes, there will be other factors in each case. And the sample size is smaller than a statistician might recommend. So, we might go back and look at competitive disctricts in the previous couple of elections. Maybe also a competitive state legislative districts.
Look at the data, rather than just making assertions about what changes should be made in general. What actually worked in the real world?
wjca
Think. Long. Term.
Yes, we want to do things for the next election. But consider: redistricting will be done by the state legislatures elected in 2030. 2030 will not be a Presidential election year, which means that turnout (especially of Democratic voters) historically will be down. So prepare to spend 24/7/52/4 building the local organizations to turn out the vote. Not a usual pre-election GOTV effort, but one which gets people accustomed well ahead of time to the idea that their vote is important. And do it in every single precinct, of every district, in every state. Recruit people who live there. Make sure they have the funding they need. Get it done NOW!
Pittsburgh Mike
@TurnItOffAndOnAgain:
Kamala barely lost, but she lost against a candidate who’s policies and presentation were insane. And so did a lot of Democratic candidates.
I don’t consider it throwing people under the bus to focus on problems common to the vast majority of wage earners. Things like how our tax system encourages top execs paying themselves exorbitant salaries at the expense of lower level employees, or how corporate mergers reduce competition for consumer dollars. We blame white males for this state of affairs, but having worked at MSFT and GOOG, I can assure you that skin color is not the variable determining compensation.