A quick housekeeping note: I’m down to residual congestion. A bit in the sinuses, a bit of post-nasal drip, leading to a bit in the chest. I’m actually going to start working out again tomorrow, which will be the first time in three weeks. I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.
There’s a lot of North Korean news regarding Russia and Ukraine.
🪖🇰🇵 Russia is disguising North Korean soldiers as Tuvans on the frontlines, but fake IDs gave them away, Ukrainian SOF reports.
The documents had no stamps or photos, with Korean names written in Russian and signatures in Korean.
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) December 23, 2024 at 3:43 AM
The Tyvans/Tuvans (it can be transliterated either way) are ethnic Mongols that live on the Russian signed of the steppe. Just like the Buryats.
‘Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, said 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine now come from Pyongyang…’
www.wsj.com/world/russia…
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@hoanssolo.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:44 AM
From The Wall Street Journal via Archive.Today:
North Korea and Russia are deepening their military cooperation, as Pyongyang ramps up the supply of arms to Moscow for the war in Ukraine and receives much needed cash and oil from the Kremlin in return.
Recent satellite images show that North Korea is shipping more munitions to Russia and is expanding arms production at home to churn out the weapons Moscow needs to feed its voracious war machine. Assistance from North Korea is allowing Russia to press its advantage against exhausted Ukrainian troops and could help it resist pressure from the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to end the conflict.
In turn, Pyongyang is already receiving much-needed cash and oil from Russia. Western officials worry North Korea could also ask for sensitive nuclear technology and material support from Russia in case of a war on the Korean Peninsula.
The deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea is alarming to the U.S. and its allies, making both countries more dangerous to their neighbors and more difficult to contain.
Millions of artillery shells from Pyongyang have allowed Russia to fill an ammunition deficit caused by almost three years of intense fighting. North Korean rockets are bombarding Ukrainian cities while Russia’s own missile production has been hobbled by Western sanctions. Military hardware, including multiple launch rocket systems, is flowing into Russia by train, with railroad traffic through the countries’ border reaching record highs.
Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, said 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine now come from Pyongyang. “North Korean ammunition is holding the Russian defenses,” he said.
North Korea’s missiles now make up nearly a third of Russia’s ballistic missile launches at Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian officials.
Manpower has further helped Russia swing the balance. The roughly 12,000 soldiers dispatched from North Korea are now engaged in active combat, U.S. officials said on Monday. More than 100 have been killed and around a thousand injured in combat against Ukrainian units occupying parts of Russia’s Kursk region, South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers in a closed-door meeting on Thursday.
North Korea has shipped some 20,000 containers of munitions to Russia, according to Washington and Seoul officials, ranging from lower-quality ammunition such as 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells to its newer Hwasong-11 class ballistic missiles. Ukrainian officials say the provision has amounted to more than five million artillery shells and dozens of rockets, including more than 100 Hwasong-11 class missiles.
“They can be imprecise, but the range is impressive,” a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said of the North Korean missiles provided to Russia. “It’s a threat to our cities.”
More recently, Pyongyang has sent 170 mm self-propelled howitzers and 240 mm long-range multiple rocket launchers.
The artillery shells initially supplied by North Korea were decades-old, raising suspicions that the Kim regime was dumping its old ammunition. But now, Pyongyang is supplying newer munitions. For instance, the 240 mm multiple rocket launchers sent to Russia were recently equipped with new guidance and control systems.
Similarly, North Korea’s largest 600 mm rocket launchers, or KN-25, were upgraded earlier this year with the support of Russian technicians, according to SI Analytics, a satellite imagery firm. The weapon, first tested in 2019, blurs the distinction between a multiple launch rocket system and a short-range ballistic missile.
More weapons are coming, by ship and train, to resupply Russian troops burning through huge quantities of arms, U.S. and South Korean officials say. Around 200 munitions factories in North Korea are operating at full capacity to produce weapons, and Russia is transferring fuel and equipment to support Pyongyang’s arms manufacturing, Seoul officials said.
A missile manufacturing complex producing the North Korean short-range ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine is expanding as well, according to satellite imagery. North Korea’s Hwasong-11 class missiles, dubbed KN-23 and KN-24 in the West, are produced at a plant on North Korea’s eastern coast. New construction appeared to be progressing rapidly, including a new building apparently aimed at concealing loading operations of the factory, SI Analytics said. Kim has visited the factory several times, during which he ordered the mass production of tactical missiles.
North Korean factories are capable of producing new Hwasong missiles in just months, said Damien Spleeters, the director of expeditionary operations at Conflict Armament Research. “The North Korean missiles are being made on demand,” he said.
Much more at the link!
“According to preliminary data, the number of killed and wounded North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region already exceeds 3,000 people.” – Zelensky.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:04 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
The number of killed and injured North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast has surpassed 3,000, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement shared on Telegram on Dec. 23.
Russia has reportedly deployed about 12,000 North Korean troops to help oust Ukrainian troops fighting in Kursk Oblast since early August.
Zelensky warned of the global risks posed by deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, including the transfer of modern warfare experience and advanced military technology.
“There are risks of North Korea sending additional soldiers and military equipment to the Russian army, and we will have tangible responses to this,” Zelensky said.
He added that increased collaboration between Russia and North Korea threatens to destabilize the Korean Peninsula and nearby regions.
Zelensky’s estimation, that he said comes from Ukraine’s intelligence, is a significant increase from other recent reports about the North Korean casualties.
South Korean MP Lee Sung-kwon told reporters on Dec. 19 that at least 100 North Korean troops have been killed and 1,000 injured, with casualties linked to their lack of experience with terrain and modern drone warfare.
Reports of North Korean troops fighting in Kursk Oblast emerged earlier in November, but Russia reportedly started using them in ground assaults in December.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Moscow Does Not Understand Words, but It Must Feel Strength – Address by the President
23 December 2024 – 21:37
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief summary of the day.
The meeting of the Staff addressed several issues. A report on Syria after Assad and Russia’s presence there. The correct development of the situation. It is important for the world to unite efforts now to bring peace to Syria and the entire region as soon as possible, to restore stability there, and to make it easier for us in our region to stop this war, Russia’s war against Ukraine. To weaken Russia. To weaken it to bring us closer to peace, a reliable, just peace.
I have instructed our Ministry of Foreign Affairs to put in more effort to establish all necessary contacts with representatives of the Syrian people, and to correct Assad’s mistakes regarding Ukraine and all of Europe. For our part, we will help Syria to overcome this period by supporting its food security. This is our moral advantage –Ukraine helps many countries to ensure normalcy of life, including by contributing to food security. We need this region, like any other region of the world, to be stable and peaceful.
Today I spoke with the UK Prime Minister Starmer. I am grateful for the support and for the UK’s willingness to continue its assistance. We discussed investments in our defense production as well as arms supplies. We also discussed the pressure on Russia for the war, and we particularly appreciate the sanctions on Russian tankers, the shadow fleet that is providing Putin with money for the war. All such tankers should be sanctioned, and protection against them should be extended beyond European ports. Now everyone sees the consequences of the Black Sea disaster – fuel oil polluting the coast. Russia is using extremely old hulks – 50 years old – using anything just to make money. This is a full-scale threat – both in terms of financing the war and in terms of environmental damage. No sea in the world – neither the Black Sea, nor the Sea of Azov, the Baltic Sea, the North Sea – no sea deserves all this damage from the Russian presence. Now in the Black Sea, the fuel oil is a problem of the people themselves, and Putin is doing nothing, he is only interested in his old “oreshniks” and other madness. We must do our best to force Russia to make real peace and to take responsibility for everything it has done as soon as possible. I thank everyone who is helping us with this.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported on the frontline and the areas of the Kursk operation. There are already over three thousand wounded and killed North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region. Russia is simply disposing of them in assaults. Why the Koreans should fight for Putin is a question that no normal person on Earth can answer. And unfortunately, the world is doing almost nothing to counter the criminal collaboration between Russia and North Korea. Although it is a threat to every state – including those near the Korean Peninsula, to China, to others, and to states in our region and elsewhere in the world. The fact that Moscow is transferring military technologies to North Korea and helping the Pyongyang regime to abuse people and keep a part of the Korean people as slaves of one family. When this happens, you realize that the words of those who call on Russia not to expand the war and not to aggravate the situation are not worth much. Moscow does not understand words. But it must feel strength. Peace through strength is possible. And we will do everything to achieve peace.
And one more thing. About Slovakia.
There have been many questions from journalists today about Fico’s trip to Moscow. In fact, after our conversation in Brussels in the presence of all European leaders, nothing surprises me anymore. We are fighting for lives, Fico is fighting for money, and hardly for Slovakia’s money. Shadow agreements with Putin are either a trade of state interests or working for personal gain. We presented him with an offer regarding potential compensation for Slovaks – the Slovaks specifically – for losses from Russian transit, as well as alternatives for transit – any other gas, not Russian, at the request of the European Commission. We were ready to do this. Fico did not want compensation for the Slovaks. And he does not want to cooperate with the European Commission. For some reason, he finds Moscow more profitable. Everyone in Europe understands why. There is no one who doesn’t understand.
All European countries need to work together to ensure security for every nation.
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
In Lviv, hundreds gather for a touching performance to remember Ukrainian POWs and missing defenders and to unite the families of the prisoners. They set the table with Christmas dishes and symbolically divided it in half – on one side they placed metal dishes, symbolizing being in captivity💔
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 7:21 AM
Germany:
⚡️ Germany provides Ukraine with 15 Leopard 1 tanks, 2 IRIS-T systems, 2 Patriot launchers.
Berlin supplied Ukraine with 15 Leopard 1A5 tanks, one short-range and one medium-range IRIS-T air defense system, two Patriot launchers, and other aid in its latest delivery, the German government said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 23, 2024 at 9:09 AM
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Berlin supplied Ukraine with 15 Leopard 1A5 tanks, one short-range and one medium-range IRIS-T air defense system with missiles, two Patriot air defense launchers, and other aid in its latest delivery, the German government said on Dec. 23.
With these deliveries, Germany has delivered on its promise to supply Ukraine with two additional IRIS-T systems before the end of the year as the country braces for intensified Russian aerial strikes during winter.
Germany has also handed over a self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer, two Gepard anti-aircraft guns, 30 Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAP), seven Caracal air assault vehicles, and 12 Kinetic Defense Vehicles.
The latest assistance also includes dozens of reconnaissance drones, including 30 Vector drones, 24 RQ-35 Heidrun drones, and 14 Hornet XR drones.
Ukraine further received 52,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, shells for Leopard drones, radars, small arms, and other weapons, vehicles, and equipment.
Initially criticized for its sluggish delivery of military aid to Ukraine following the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Berlin has become the second-largest provider of military equipment after the U.S.
On the 12th day of Christmas, Germany sent to me
15 Leopard 1 tanks
2 IRIS-T air defense
2 Patriot launchers
1 Panzerhaubitze howitzer
2 Gepard AA guns
30 MRAP Vehicles
7 Caracal air assault vehicles
12 Kinetic Defense Vehicles
And a partridge in a pear treeThank you Germany and Merry Christmas❤️
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 6:57 PM
And how cool is that, we get to test a new drone defense system. I know there is a lot of criticism on Germany about the taurus, but i dont hear that here in Ukraine. We are very much thankful for all the support we get❤️
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 7:16 PM
It was actually a lot more than that, but i reached the text limit
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 7:14 PM
Georgia:
#GeorgiaProtests Day 26
00:00
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:24 PM
Protests throughout Georgia continue and get more traction.
This one is Batumi today, day 26. #GeorgiaProstests #terrorinGeorgia #NewElectionsforGeorgia
📷 Guram Murvanidze— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 2:53 PM
President Zourabichvili held the speech that she was prevented from delivering in front of hundreds of thousands by the regime yesterday by disabling her microphones.
She stated that the country has two options: 1/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Either Ivanishvili and the regime compromise on new elections now before December 29 (the sham inauguration of the new puppet President), or the all-encompassing crisis deepens and the regime collapses; the regime is already on its way of collapsing as it is. 2/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
According to her, the scenarios for new, free and fair elections are already being drafted, but in case Ivanishvili refuses new elections, there will be a council set up entrusted with the task of working on new elections. 3/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
The President called on everyone to get ready to persist if new elections are refused and the regime collapse gets inevitable. In particular, expressed hope there will be resources to support the media that is struggling now, so that the information space is not captured by the propaganda. 4/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
The President stated she continues to remain the President and the Commander-in-Chief, and she is unafraid of threats of jailing her.
She underlined that the elections were fraudulent, supported by the OSCE/ODIHR final report; 5/— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
the Parliament convened without her authorization and while there was a Constitutional Court case pending on the issue, further making the Parliament illegitimate. The Court did not even consider the President’s and the political parties’ case on the validity of the elections. 6/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
We have exhausted all judicial resources first but were rejected everywhere, shedding further light to the dire state of our judiciary.
These are the main points of the President: serene, confident, and encouraging of her people.
#GeorgiaProtests #NewElectionsforGeorgia #terrorinGeorgia 7/7.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Here’s the video with English captioning turned on.
“I defeated cancer, I’ll defeat GD too” – cancer patients demand snap elections and the release of detained protesters. They will join the protest on Rustaveli Avenue.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 26— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 10:33 AM
The Armenian community of Georgia will be marching from traditionally largely Armenian-populated Avlabari district metro and the Azerbaijani community will be marching from the Heydar Aliyev Park, on December 26, 18:00. They will unite en route to the Parliament. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 8:24 AM
Again, the Armenian and Azerbaijani ethnic communities in Georgia doing this is a very significant development. If anything should be an indicator to the Georgian Dream and it’s oligarch owner that the Georgian citizenry has had enough of them and of Russian interference in Georgia, it should be these two communities acting together.
Back to Ukraine.
A Ukrainian ground robotic system is evacuating a damaged hexacopter on one of the fronts.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 10:20 AM
In the past, a successful Ukrainian drone strike against Russian targets was seen as a major event. Today, it has become almost routine, weekly event.
Good.
It’s one of the clearest indicators that Ukraine is steadily enhancing its ability to increase the cost of war for Russia— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 1:56 PM
Ukraine has turbo-charged its long-distance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), making “rocket-drones” to compete with cruise missiles or save the trouble of asking for more Western-made ranged weapons.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 23, 2024 at 4:02 PM
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Ukraine has turbo-charged its long-distance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), making “rocket-drones” to compete with cruise missiles or save the trouble of asking for more Western-made ranged weapons.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has been showing off the latest results, with videos of the Peklo and Palianytsia missile-drones, which Ukrainian soldiers have begun deploying.
The “rocket-drone” project has become a key goal for Zelensky in 2025. In November, he told the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliamentary body, that he wanted to see Ukraine produce 30,000 long-distance drones, and 3,000 “cruise missiles or missile-drones” over the next year.
These “missile-drones” are a new genre of weapons that Ukraine is pioneering.
Deploying new weapons to offset the lack of traditional ones isn’t a new move for Ukraine. Just as Ukraine has deployed UAVs to take on roles traditionally reserved for an air force, such as aerial surveillance and targeted bombing, the rocket-drones are evolving to perform functions of cruise missiles, which Ukraine doesn’t produce.
“They are basically the next evolution step of long-range deep-strike suicide UAVs,” says Fabian Hinz, a research fellow with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies who specializes in missiles. “As with so many things, because of technology, the lines are blurring.”
“Ukraine really is able to develop these small missile systems that are rather cheap, relatively easy to produce, but are still good enough to pack quite a punch and destroy some high-value targets, also deep inside enemy territory,” says Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo’s nuclear project, similarly specialized in missiles.
What is a drone missile?“Missiles and drones. A combination of words that until recently was something from fantasy. But today, a reality,” Zelensky said in a Dec. 10 speech, highlighting that the Palianytsia had gone into production and the first Peklos had gone to the front. He also revealed that a mysterious analog called the Ruta had just passed testing.
These missile-drones are mostly an evolution from Ukraine’s existing arsenal of long-range drones into something resembling a small cruise missile. In that metamorphosis, the key is speed.
Some long-range drones that Ukraine uses can already theoretically make it thousands of kilometers. The evolution of these newer models is primarily one of speed. Palianytsia, Peklo and Ruta tout max speeds of, respectively, 500, 700 and 800 kilometers per hour.
That is largely thanks to jet motors, which allow the newer models to outfly the 200 or so kilometers per hour that the piston engines on most existing long-range drones offer. Even the Iranian Shaheds — remarkably good long-range kamikaze drones — typically max out in the 300 kilometers per hour range.
“When you have a jet-powered UAV or a cruise missile you can simply buy engines off the shelf. So a lot of these systems probably use commercial off-the-shelf engines which you can just buy,” says Hinz, naming various German, Dutch and Czech manufacturers as likely candidates.
As the speed has grown between these three models, so too has the sophistication of their engines.
Based on the government diagrams, Hoffman says there’s no sign of a true turbojet engine on the Palianytsias.
Meanwhile, with the Peklo, “the engine is actually top-mounted,” says Hoffman. “The engine is outside the fuselage. And that makes manufacturing easier because it’s not as sophisticated, but a problem with that approach is that it creates a massive, massive radar cross section.”
A jet engine needs a fast stream of air to provide oxygen to its fuel supply. Other engines either work slower or require an oxidizer to accompany the fuel itself — a major add-on in weight for a rocket that needs to go hundreds of kilometers.
Other than the set-up of their propulsion, these rocket-drones are structurally almost identical. Based on the government-released diagrams, the Palianytsia is a slight standout in having much larger winglets — to compensate for less updraft as a result of going slower, says Hoffman.
Some of Ukraine’s models are touching down on the battlefield for the first time. The Peklo and Palianytsia have been causing a particular stir across social media amid recent Ukrainian attacks on Taganrog and Bryansk.
The actual deployment of these drones is tough to confirm. They seem to show up in swarms alongside foreign missiles like U.S.-made ATACMS in a barrage on an airfield in Taganrog, east of Mariupol.
A popular Russian news Telegram channel identified wreckage in a village in Kursk as “tentatively” one of these Palianytsias in September, based on the fact that it had a jet engine.
After a recent attack on Taganrog, a Russian military-tied Telegram channel Rybar roundly denied that the attack involved a Palianytsia or Peklo, or any other kind of drone, saying it was “only six ATACMS missiles.” That channel claimed that the one Peklo in the air for that attack was shot down by a Russian MiG-29 over the Black Sea.
Another popular channel tied to the Ukrainian military wrote “at the end of the day, they’ll say they were ATACMS to avoid shaming themselves by pronouncing ‘Palianytsia’.”
The rocket-missile’s name is a type of Ukrainian bread that Russians find famously difficult to pronounce. The Peklo is a Ukrainian word for hell.
The Ruta is similarly patriotically named, dubbed in honor of an herb from one of Ukraine’s most famous songs, “Chervona Ruta,” so popular it’s often mistaken for a folk song.
The concept of “rocket-drones” is novel. These new weapons split the difference between drones and traditional cruise missiles.
As with much of Ukraine’s drone developments, these are economical solutions. But that would be true on either side — if Kinzhals were free, Russia would never launch another Shahed.
Among major distinctions is that these rocket-drones hold much less explosive charge than traditional cruise missiles. Tomahawks and Storm Shadows, for example, carry around 450 kilograms of charge each. The new Ukrainian rocket-drones mostly feature payloads of around 100 kilograms.
But possibly a bigger weakness of these newer rocket-drones is that they are less stealthy and more vulnerable to electronic and navigational interference than more classical cruise missiles. But at the same time, they are significantly less expensive than traditional cruise missiles. The price per piece on these projects is somewhere under $300,000, which makes them significantly more disposable than, for example, the $1-million-a-piece Storm Shadows.
It’s a market that Hinz sees catching on.
“These type of longer-range suicide drones are a completely new thing, which we forget a lot,” says Hinz. “If you would have asked three years ago, what was the American equivalent to the Shahed — there was none.”
“Ukraine is walking into a space where there’s not really a lot of other states producing these types of systems,” says Hoffman. “This is actually something that the U.S. wants to do, but they haven’t done until now.”
Much more at the link.
⚡️ More than two-thirds of Ukrainians favor idea of restoring nuclear arms arsenal, poll shows.
About 73% of Ukrainians supported the idea of Ukraine restoring its nuclear weapons, according to a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on Dec. 23.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 23, 2024 at 8:34 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
About 73% of Ukrainians supported the idea of Ukraine restoring its nuclear weapons, while 20% spoke against it, according to a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on Dec. 23.
The poll was conducted around the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine gave up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in exchange for international security guarantees.
Around half of the respondents said they would support the development of nuclear weapons even at the price of losing Western aid and coming under sanctions.
Despite discussions in the media, Kyiv affirmed its adherence to the nuclear non-proliferation policy and said it has no plans of building nuclear weapons, calling for NATO membership as the only viable security guarantee.
The pollsters noted that in 1994 only one-third of Ukrainians supported the idea of their state retaining a nuclear arsenal.
“In the minds of Ukrainians, nuclear weapons are one of the options ‘on the table,'” said Anton Hrushetskyi, the institute’s executive director.
“We hope that our Western allies will demonstrate the necessary will and Ukraine will eventually receive effective security guarantees, without the need for Ukraine to consider other difficult solutions for itself, how to protect itself from Russia.”
The survey was carried out between Dec. 2 and 17 with 2,000 respondents via phone living in Ukraine-controlled territories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Eb9E1anaGY
Pokrovsk: (h/t: GhostWarrior)
— Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (@rferl.org.web.brid.gy) December 20, 2024 at 2:15 AM
From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL):
POKROVSK, Ukraine — Pokrovsk once buzzed with life, but on this cold, snowy December day, it feels like a ghost town.
The streets of the once-60,000-strong community were eerily empty, with barely a soul or a car in sight. The only sound is the occasional crack of gunfire and the thunderous boom of distant artillery.
Once a thriving industrial hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region where cafes hummed with chatter and the streets pulsed with energy, Pokrovsk is now the latest Ukrainian city caught in the death grip of Russian forces.
Ever since Ukraine’s counteroffensive to drive out invading Russian forces culminated with little success in October 2023, Russian troops have slowly pushed westward, capturing the Donetsk city of Avdiyivka and then the town of Vuldehar. Russia currently controls about 60 percent of Donetsk.
Now, reportedly just a few kilometers from the edge of town, Russian troops could be on the verge of taking Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub near the current front line.
“It would be a substantial blow to the Ukrainians, and I’m not sure one that they can stop from happening,” David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University in the United States, told RFE/RL.
“If they lose it, they lose that kind of fairly straightforward access to their defensive lines, and that makes it much harder to build up forces there and keep fighting,” he said.
Pokrovsk is strategically significant because it serves as a major transportation hub, is close to the front lines, and serves as a supply hub for military operations in the Donbas region.
The rate of Russia’s territorial gain in Donetsk has been increasing every month since August despite a surge in Western military aid, raising concerns about a potential Russian breakthrough.
The loss of Pokrovsk would further open the door to one of Russia’s main war aims: capturing the rest of the Donetsk region, one of four that Moscow claims to have annexed in November 2022 following a fabricated election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in June said he would agree to a cease-fire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from the four regions, which also include Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson, and renounced ambitions to join NATO.
Marathon Offensive
But according to George Barros, a military analyst at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia may not have the resources for the time being to turn a potential tactical victory in Pokrovsk into an operational advance deeper into Ukraine.
Russia lost more than 500 tanks and 1,000 fighting vehicles — enough hardware to equip five mechanized divisions — as well as tens of thousands of troops during the yearlong, 45-kilometer march westward to the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
What we’re seeing here is the end of a very, very long Russian marathon where the Russians have spent an eye-watering amount of resources to advance over a very objectively small amount of territory,” he said.
If the Russians do seize Pokrovsk, the current campaign will likely culminate due to force and resource constraints, Barros says.
He says Russian forces have been unable to capture the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar following their victory in nearby Bakhmut, one of the deadliest battles of the war, in part due to exhaustion.
Russia’s extraordinary losses on the way to Pokrovsk could open up an opportunity for Ukraine, Barros adds.
“If the Ukrainians are properly resourced…and they can get more men to the front that are well-equipped — this would actually be the ideal time to counterattack into a tired and exhausted adversary and inflict some reverses on the Russians,” Barros said.
Much more at the link including maps and imagery.
The Toretsk direction:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Toretsk direction “forced” five Russians to surrender with grenades.
www.facebook.com/28mechanized…
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Kharkiv:
Wild Kharkiv nights:
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:57 PM
Russian Shahed drones in Kharkiv airspace right now‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:47 PM
Christmas decorations illuminate Kharkiv this year, casting shimmering lights across an otherwise too dark and too deserted cityscape.
People gather under these lights, trying to create a genuine holiday experience for their children while seeking some comfort for themselves.👇
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 1:12 PM
Yet, we are fooling no one, least of all ourselves. Maybe it is just in my head, but I see the toll of this war in the eyes of every passerby.
Our city not just stands but lives and celebrates, yet the damage we are taking builds up. 👇
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 1:12 PM
Everyone here has one and the same most sacred wish that must be fulfilled, for if it isn’t, who knows what next Christmas might look like for these people.🔚
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 1:12 PM
Kherson:
In Kherson region, in the last 24 hours, Russian troops continued attacks on civilians. Human safari (drones hunting people), aerial bombs, artillery, tanks strikes reported.
💔3 killed
💔1 injured
🛑28 settlements attacked
🛑8 private houses, a gas pipeline, shop damaged— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:17 AM
Russian occupied Crimea:
Dozens of oil slicks seen on radar image, a few kilometers off east Crimean coast. Fuel oil from three sunken Russian oil tankers, having already washed up on Russian beaches on the other side of the Kerch Strait, now threatens Ukrainian shores.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:19 AM
Following the sinking of two russian vessels in the Kerch Strait, an oil spill now causes a mass die-off of the already endangered Azov dolphins, which are protected by the Ukrainian Red Book.
russia truly destroys everything it touches.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 11:22 AM
The Siversk direction:
In the Siversk direction, Russians launched an assault across the field, waving Russian and USSR flags.
This “parade” was swiftly interrupted by the warriors of Spear Group, 118th Territorial Defense Brigade.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 6:47 AM
Tatarstan, Russia:
“A $16M warehouse for Shaheed parts destroyed in Tatarstan.” – reports the GUR.
A fire in the Alabuga economic zone destroyed 65 drone fuselages, engines, navigation systems, and thermal imaging cameras, halting the production of 400 attack UAVs.
t.me/c/1606301574…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 8:43 AM
Rostov Oblast, Russia:
Rostov, russia. Looking lit
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 2:42 PM
Drones are now attacking the Millerovo airfield in the Rostov region.
Local channels are already reporting damage to the building of the Millerovo Cadet Professional College.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 2:53 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is the next episode of Patron’s official animated series that I have not yet posted here.
Open thread!
KatKapCC
I’m sorry for how long your illness has hung on, but I must say, “Residual Congestion” could be a good band name.
I wonder how the war is being portrayed to the people of North Korea. My understanding is that nearly all (or perhaps all) of the public there has access to nothing but state-run news media, which I’m guessing is…not factual. I’ve read in the past that the government tells the citizenry that NK is the most powerful country on Earth and other such inanities, so I really wonder what the people are being told about what this war is about, who started it, who is to blame, etc. Because you can lie about a lot of things, but you can’t lie to someone that their dead relative isn’t dead.
Adam L Silverman
@KatKapCC: I saw something today that I’ll include tomorrow that, apparently, Kim offered to send his troops. Russia didn’t ask, Kim offered.
KatKapCC
@Adam L Silverman: Real man of the people, that one.
Nukular Biskits
I really can’t blame them.
But this is what we get for not countering Russian aggression more forcefully.
YY_Sima Qian
More reporting from the NYT on NK troops in Kursk (gift link):
KatKapCC
@YY_Sima Qian: “Schwirtz” sounds like the name of a seltzer brand sold only in kosher delis.
YY_Sima Qian
@KatKapCC: The beauty of the US being a country of immigrants.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Glad you’re feeling a bit better Adam & you’re welcome. ^__^ And thank you!
I can’t believe that no one seems to give a crap about the Russia/DPRK hook up. Except for, of course, South Korea & Ukraine. It’s like they’re asleep at the wheel, refusing to take it as seriously as they should. Even China seems to be disengaged. Another case of realpolitik absolutely failing. How many does that make?
Anyway
Not for long. RWNJs have been itching to recast it as “country of settlers” —
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
More at the link,
https://xcancel.com/DefMon3/status/1871177123123376496#m
The “they” would be the Ukrainian General Staff.
Jay
https://xcancel.com/Shack_Rat/status/1871012868168306979#m
wjca
Which suggests that Russia had something that Kim needed/wanted more than a few thousand troops. Maybe make that “badly needed”, given his level of paranoia about hostilities in and around North Korea — that being what those troops were initially for.
Jay
@wjca:
According to the Ukrainians and South Koreans, Kim is getting food, oil, gas, metals, coal, missile and weapons technology and possibly nuclear technology.
According to the South Koreans, ruZZian tech’s have already modernized NORK MLRS’s.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Unfortunately, outside of Ukraine & to a lesser extent South Korea, the Russo-NK alliance is but a nuisance. At least for the time being.
YY_Sima Qian
@Anyway: Yeah, I read a NYT article this morning about some of the the liberal, creative & activist types, generally well educated & affluent, leaving the PRC for the US, & enjoying the freedom of expression. In the back of my mind, I wondered what their lives will be like in the coming years, as the reactionary counterrevolutionaries ramp up the Sinophobia to 11, to help provide justification for their domestic project.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Japan has joined the chat.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: NK is a far greater threat to SK than Japan.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
US reinforcements for the “Allied” presence in South Korea are stationed in Okinawa, naval, armor, manpower, air assets,
Also mainland Japan,
and of course the supply routes.
The NORK’s pursuit of long range missiles, AD and ship killing tech is not aimed at South Korea. It’s aimed at preventing another July 1, 1950.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
China, The Great Restrainer, will probably enter the chat, soon.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: We’ll see. At this point, just as the US is almost myopically focused on its Great Power Competition w/ the PRC, the PRC is equally prioritizing the Great Power Competition w/ the US (albeit w/ less myopia wrt to the ROW). I don’t see Beijing truly restraining either NK or Russia, unless NK is actually gearing to attack SK/Japan.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The ruZZian “War Economy” is making ruZZia an economic vassal state of China, (all good from my POV),
but ruZZia’s deal with the NORK’s is minimizing China’s influence and ability to stop the NORK’s being stupid.
Chris T.
Don’t get too sore!
(I always go easy after a week or two break and I always get sooooo sore anyway. Alas. But the next workout helps clear that out and by the end of the week it’s fine…)