As you can see in the air raid alert map above, there are strikes in/near the city of Kyiv. The alert map indicates that these strikes occurred at 2:12 and 2:13 AM local time in Ukraine, which is 7:12 and 7:13 PM EST.
Not only did Russia hit the Azerbaijan Airlines plane with air defense, they then repeatedly denied landing permission and employed GPS spoofing to try to force the plane to crash into the Caspian Sea. Which would’ve made it far harder to ascertain the cause of the crash.
Hoo boy.
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 8:00 AM
From EuroNews:
38 passengers were killed on Wednesday after Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432 crashed as it attempted to make an emergency landing near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijani government sources have exclusively confirmed to Euronews on Thursday that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau on Wednesday.
According to the sources, the missile was fired at Flight 8432 during drone air activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight.
Government sources have told Euronews that the damaged aircraft was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing, and it was ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea towards Aktau in Kazakhstan.
According to data, the plane’s GPS navigation systems were jammed throughout the flight path above the sea.
The missile was fired from a Pantsir-S air defence system, Baku-based international outlet AnewZ reported, citing Azerbaijani government sources.
According to Russian sources, at the time the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was passing over the territory of Chechnya, Russian air defence forces were actively attempting to shoot down Ukrainian UAVs.
The head of the Security Council of the Chechen Republic, Khamzat Kadyrov, confirmed that a drone attack on Grozny took place on Wednesday morning, noting that there were no casualties or damage.
If this preliminary data is confirmed, this would be the second time in a decade that Russian forces have destroyed a commercial aircraft after the MH17 crash in Ukraine. This time, Russia’s own citizens, as well as those from neighbouring countries, are among the casualties.
More at the link.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Are Seeing the Right and Necessary Results in Destroying the Military Infrastructure of the Enemy – Address by the President
26 December 2024 – 19:30
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
First.Military. Today, there was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Defense Minister Umerov. The front. Supplies. It is very important that the United States is now increasing deliveries. This is necessary to stabilize the situation. I am grateful to our partners. The pace of deliveries must be such that it disrupts the pace of Russian assaults. We need greater strength of weapons. And strong positions for diplomacy. And every unit, every brigade contributing to this brings us closer to the possibility of a normal peace. I thank our 95th, 80th, and 82nd separate air assault brigades for their resilience and bravery in battles over these weeks. Also, the 68th separate jaeger brigade – well done, guys! My gratitude as well to the 225th and 425th separate assault battalions – thank you! I would also like to highlight all our warriors who are carrying out long-range strikes on Russian territory. We are seeing the right and necessary results in destroying the military infrastructure of the enemy – and only military targets. Ukraine is defending itself from aggression, and our strikes are exclusively directed at military targets.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Defense Intelligence, the Foreign Intelligence Service – I am grateful to all involved structures for their precision.
Today, much attention was also given to domestic issues – the decisions and innovations needed in the long term to ensure that Ukraine can bring back as many of our people as possible who left because of the war. We must create all the necessary economic and social incentives for Ukrainians to work in Ukraine, to work for Ukraine, and to build greater potential for Ukraine to compete equally on the global stage. The Ukrainian people have proven their courage and can demonstrate to the world their ability to recover and rebuild from the ruins. Today, I held a meeting on this matter with Deputy Prime Ministers Chernyshov, Fedorov, and Kuleba, along with the Office team. We are also preparing for talks tomorrow with representatives of Ukrainian businesses – to discuss the systemic solutions needed now and in the future to give Ukraine greater confidence and a strong economic pulse.
And the third important point for today.
I spoke with the President of Serbia and thanked Aleksandar for supporting our country and our people. We discussed our cooperation – both bilateral and with other partners. I really appreciate our dialog. Maximum constructive relations for Ukraine and joint security with our partners.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Day 29 of pro-European, anti-Russian #GeorgianProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:59 PM
#GeorgiaProtests Day 29
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 3:03 PM
“It’s the first generation since the 14th century that’s [both] born & being raised in a free 🇬🇪. The first generation that we must ensure goes through the full cycle of freedom, learns fight, defends and maintains freedom.”
– Jege Sakhokia, info. security specialist, musician.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 6:29 PM
Illegitimate PM Kobakhidze states that President Zourabichvili not leaving the Palace would be a criminal responsibility. He also added that, patrons frequently sacrifice their agents and their agents sacrifice themselves, but now she’d be sacrificing say, 100 more people. A threat of violence. 1/2
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 3:23 PM
For context, there’s a debate whether the legitimate President should insist on staying at the Orbeliani Palace which, by the way, she is the first residing President of, or whether the Palace means nothing and she can set up her legitimate administration wherever. 2/2.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 3:23 PM
It looks like the GOP’s unnatural and fanatical obsession with the People’s Republic of China may work out in favor of Georgia’s anti-Georgian Dream/anti-Russia and pro-EU movement.
One more post from U.S representative Joe Wilson.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 3:02 PM
They are chanting “solidarity to the Tkibuli miners” and “freedom to all the prisoners of the regime.” It’s probably the miners fired over political grounds recently, but could be broader than that. Impressive how more and more spheres are incorporated into the resistance. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 12:53 PM
21:25 The march of the People from Batumi and Tkibuli arrived on Rustaveli and is now marching to the parliament. Day 29 of #GeorgiaProtests
— Markus Reuter (@markusreuter.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 12:30 PM
20:55 – More than 4 weeks of protesting and still thousands demonstrate on Day 29 in front of the Parliament in Tbilisi. They demand new, fair and free elections and the release of the prisoners. #GeorgiaProtests
— Markus Reuter (@markusreuter.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 11:57 AM
1/ Former senior official of the Special Tasks Department, Irakli Shaishmelashvili, who resigned following the government’s suspension of European integration and the abuse of demonstrators, has left Georgia.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:58 PM
2/ He wrote:
“I would like to limit myself to just a word of thanks to Giorgi Chikvaidze, Salome Zourabichvili, US Embassy Tbilisi”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:58 PM
3 “A special thank you to those strangers who have shown incredible support and love. I hope I will be given the opportunity to repay this respect in a dignified way.
P.S. I will get back to you soon 🫡🇬🇪🇪🇺”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:58 PM
This is actually a good message by default if not by design: leave the system now and get the Presidential and American support.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:50 PM
Finland:
Finnish presser live: 3km No fly zone over Eagle S declared, finnish police and border guards on board and conducting investigation.
Eagle S suspected of breaking the Estlink 2 power cable and other (unspecified) cables.
— Aki Heikkinen (@akihheikkinen.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 7:06 AM
“The Cook Islands-registered ship, named by authorities as the Eagle S, was boarded by a Finnish coast guard crew which took command in the Baltic Sea and sailed the vessel to Finnish waters, a coast guard official told a press conference.” www.cnn.com/2024/12/26/e…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 10:39 AM
“The Finnish customs service said it had seized the vessel’s cargo and that the Eagle S was believed to belong to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers that seek to evade sanctions on the sale of Russian oil.” amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/12/…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 11:02 AM
From CNN:
Reuters — Finnish authorities said they boarded and took control of an oil tanker traveling from Russia on Thursday, on suspicion it had caused the outage of an undersea power cable and three internet lines connecting Finland and Estonia a day earlier.
The Cook Islands-registered ship, named by authorities as the Eagle S, was boarded by a Finnish coast guard crew which took command in the Baltic Sea and sailed the vessel to Finnish waters, a coast guard official told a press conference.
“From our side we are investigating grave sabotage,” said Robin Lardot, Director of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, which leads the multi-agency probe.
“According to our understanding an anchor of the vessel that is under investigation has caused the damage,” he added.
The Finnish customs service said it had seized the vessel’s cargo and that the Eagle S was believed to belong to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers that seek to evade sanctions on the sale of Russian oil.
Both the Finnish and the Estonian government will hold extraordinary meetings later on Thursday to assess the situation, they said in separate statements.
Baltic Sea nations are on high alert for potential acts of sabotage following a string of outages of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines since 2022, although subsea equipment is also subject to technical malfunction and accidents.
Repairing the 170 km (106 miles) Estlink 2 interconnector will take months, and the outage could cause a tense power supply situation during winter, operator Fingrid said in a statement.
The Eagle S Panamax oil tanker crossed the Estlink 2 electricity cable at 5.26a ET on Wednesday, a Reuters review of MarineTraffic ship tracking data showed, identical to the time when Fingrid said the power outage had occurred.
The ship was stationary near the Finnish coast on Thursday afternoon, with a Finnish patrol vessel stopped nearby, the data showed.
United Arab Emirates-based Caravella LLCFZ, which according to MarineTraffic data owns the Eagle S, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Peninsular Maritime, which, according to MarineTraffic acts as a technical manager for the ship, declined to comment outside of the company’s opening hours.
‘Disrupt and deter’
Damage to subsea installations in the Baltic Sea has now become so frequent that it is difficult to believe this was caused merely by accident or poor seamanship, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement.“We must understand that damage to submarine infrastructure has become more systematic and thus must be regarded as attacks against our vital structures,” Tsahkna said.
The 658 megawatt (MW) Estlink 2 outage began at midday local time on Wednesday, leaving only the 358 MW Estlink 1 in operation between the two countries, operator Fingrid said.
Twelve Western countries on Dec. 16 said they had agreed measures to “disrupt and deter” Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of vessels in order to prevent sanctions breaches and increase the cost to Moscow of the war in Ukraine.
“We must be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in a post on social media X on Thursday.
Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys said the growing number of Baltic Sea incidents should serve as a stark and urgent warning to NATO and the European Union to significantly enhance the protection of undersea infrastructure there.
Poland:
After all the threats to Poland, an enraged Putin, frustrated by Ukraine’s suspension of gas transit, is now seriously proposing that Poland restore gas transit through its territory via the Yamal-Europe pipeline.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 5:12 PM
The Kerch Strait:
Storm turned Russian barriers against Ukrainian drones near the bridge across the Kerch Strait into a mess.
Comparison of satellite images from November 8 (before the storm), December 16 and December 24 – the last photo shows that it has not yet been possible to restore the barriers from old barges
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 2:20 PM
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv’s soundtrack: Jingle Bells drowned by air raid sirens. This is life in war. Sound on.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:50 AM
Kharkiv region today after the russian glide bomb attack. At least one man died
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 11:09 AM
A Russian Kh-59 cruise missile was neutralized in Kharkiv after crashing on someone’s yard and not detonating.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 12:39 PM
Earlier today, russia targeted the suburbs of Kharkiv with glide bombs, resulting in shattered homes, injured residents, and a massive crater.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 10:20 AM
The Zaporizhzhia front:
Yet another successful night hunt of “NEMESIS” unit on Russian TOR-M2 air defence system. Zelenopil, Zaporizhzhia front.
The fewer air defense systems Russia has, the safer the skies are for everyone.
t.me/usf_army/315— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 10:06 AM
Nikopol:
Central market. Holiday season.
Russians launched an attack on the central market in Nikopol today, injuring 8 civilians.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 10:25 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Another column of occupiers “burned out on the job” in the Kursk region, failing to make it to the New Year. The doomed attackers were met with artillery, mortars, and FPV drones. Heavy equipment shattered like splinters, and one tank even flipped over.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:43 PM
The deadly carousel was orchestrated by the brave Cossacks of the 47th Brigade.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 1:43 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron.
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here’s the next episode of Patron’s official animated series that I had not yet posted here.
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Below is a comprehensive list of the actions which will be taken by “the international community” in response to this second russian downing of a civilian airliner.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Pretty much
KatKapCC
I truly hope President Zourabichvili has some seriously beefed-up security around her.
wombat probability cloud
Encouraging that the Finns didn’t fuck around. As always, thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
Just like the Repubs in the US domestic context, there is no bottom for Russia’s international conduct.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1872264382379618699#m
Bill Arnold
Am assuming that the Finns will do forensics on the ship control systems, including any methods for dropping the anchor via remote access of any sort.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
Apparently the ship lost it’s anchor.
Carlo Graziani
Adam, thanks for soldiering on.
Hi everyone.
Parfigliano
@Jay: Snagging cable like paddlefish will do that.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
You have been away for a while, good to see you back.
Jay
@Parfigliano:
Nothing quite like leaving the murder weapon at the scene of the crime.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Good to see you back in these threads!
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: @YY_Sima Qian: Thanks. The shock was a lot. Pulled the shutters down for a while, focused on work and just looked away. I still don’t want to engage with this fucking world for a while. Just thinking about what the future holds for Ukraine makes me weep, and thinking about the Russian political victory in the US makes me so blind with rage that I’m glad I don’t own weapons. I don’t think I can offer any useful commentary for a while yet. But I do miss you guys.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I get the feeling.
However, the world is changing at blinding speed, most of it not for the better. It’s at once fascinating, stimulating even, intellectually, but also horrifying & exhausting. By the time you reengage, it’s liable to be a different world.
I actually find it difficult to concentrate on work, it being so mundane in comparison.
The good news for Ukraine is that Russia may actually be reaching the end of its tether in 2025 in terms of economic wherewithal to support its war effort. The question is how long Ukraine’s support can last, & how long its economy can withstand the stresses of war.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Would that the EU & the rest of NATO were as decisive as the Finns!
At least the Murder Goblin has succeeded in making Gen. Ken Kellogg really , really angry. He did not appreciate the Russian bombardment of Ukraine on Christmas Day at all. So there’s that.
Thank you as always, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam