Quick housekeeping note: As I mentioned yesterday, I’ve got something I have to do this afternoon and evening, so just a quick and somewhat abbreviated update going up early today.
Here’s some updated information on the Russian sabotage of undersea cables:
I think oil tanker EAGLE S damaged at least one more cable yesterday in Gulf of Finland.
Subsea communications cable C-LION1 (Helsinki – Rostock) had an outage yesterday, reported at 16:50Z.
16:42Z cable saboteur suspect EAGLE S passed this cable.
EAGLE S is arrested by Finnish Coast Guard.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:14 AM
Besides the likely damaged electricity cable Estlink2 and now C-LION1, this ship passed numerous other cables and pipes and I have expected more issues.
Thanks @akihheikkinen.bsky.social for finding this.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:14 AM
I am told in private that there are two more Gulf of Finland communication cables cut. Connecting Tallin and Helsinki. I have not been able to verify it yet. Happy for help in that matter!
As you can see from this (schematic!) map there are plenty of options.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:18 AM
This is the impact on electricity:
600 MW of import from FI via Estlink 2 is eliminated. Estlink 1 is running at the limit with 350 MW. Forwarding to Latvia is stopped completely.
Exports to Russia are reversed, and as a result 200 MW are imported from Russia.
energy-charts.info/charts/power…
— Der grüne Gaumen (@astro-sven.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:21 AM
Since autumn 2023 11 cables and pipes have been damaged by ships dragging their anchors in Baltic Sea.
Trust @garygnutter.bsky.social for details!
Not in list: the attempt by Yi Peng 3 to rip the electrical cables to Læsø, Denmark.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 28, 2024 at 4:50 AM
It’s almost like there’s a world war.
Georgia:
@Zourabichvili_S: “I will come out from here [Orbeliani Presidential Palace], come to you, and be with you.”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:09 AM
Salome Zourabichvili: „This building belongs to no one. It was a symbol as long as it housed a legitimate president. I am taking legitimacy with me, I am taking the flag with me, I am taking with me what is your trust”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:14 AM
The legitimate President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili has just stated that she carries public legitimacy within herself and that the building (the residence) that she had previously chosen to begin with is of no importance.
She pointed out several priorities: 1/— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
She will work on the meticulous details of how the new elections must be held so that the Georgians are never tricked again. Secrecy of vote as well as its universality must be ensured (which means full inclusion of voters abroad). 2/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
She will work with every stakeholder regarding this issue, and called for all who would like to be on the country’s political scene, such as the old but also the new emerging forces in the process, to be ready for the new elections that will “come very soon.” 3/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
She calls for strengthening the independent media through every means; to strengthen foundations that aid those affected, from prisoners to repressed public sector workers; for lawyers to be ready to defend people. 4/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
The President will hold meetings with the 🇬🇪 public in the regions, be in close touch with the business that has realized what’s at stake and has expressed dissent towards authorities, unlike the typical conformism in a country like 🇬🇪. 5/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
She will also continue representing 🇬🇪 abroad, and underlined that she already has several high-profile visit invitations.
She stated there is no New Year’s or any holiday in this struggle in this “total crisis,” (politics, economics…) and that we shall meet the New Year’s together on Rustaveli. 6/— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
Please note that this is the content of her speech, I might have missed a point, and it cannot be quoted as her precise words. 7/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
This marks a new chapter in our resistance – a President of the people, full public resources consolidated and directed into making the regime collapse, since we believe it is still possible through the mix of internal and external pressure. 8/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
What we need: non-recognition of the regime, no shaking hands with them, continued recognition of President Zourabichvili, and sanctions.
#GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia #NewElectionsforGeorgia 9/9.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:52 AM
Today, Salome Zourabichvili is wearing the same outfit she wore at her own inauguration.
2024—2018
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 2:16 AM
⭕️At approximately 2:20 PM on December 29, police began detaining peaceful protesters on Rustaveli Avenue, #Tbilisi.
#GeorgiaProtests
#Georgia
Video: Luka Tvaliashvili— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) December 29, 2024 at 5:44 AM
December 29 – #Tbilisi
An elderly woman tried to save an arrested protester as police cracked down on demonstrators. Several arrests were made, with claims of one person being bitten in a police van, though unconfirmed. Police also injured protesters while dragging them.
#GeorgiaProtests— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) December 29, 2024 at 6:12 AM
December 29 – #Tbilisi
Several were arrested and some injured on Rustaveli Ave during #GeorgiaProtests. Protesters say, despite clearing the road as ordered, law enforcement began arrests. Eyewitnesses reported police insults, telling female protesters to ‘go home and cook.’
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) December 29, 2024 at 5:54 AM
Day 32 of #GeorgiaProtests on Rustaveli avenue.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Protest march in underway in Batumi. #GeorgiaProtests day 32
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 12:48 PM
What’s next for Georgia:
This is a process of attrition. We are focused on the regime collapse. For society to switch to the mode of toppling, they need to see that the collapse is not possible. However, it could very much be possible. 1/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 4:52 AM
How do we collapse the regime?
At home: we need to persist, hopefully continued with an even deeper dissent of the business sector. 2/— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 4:52 AM
Abroad: non-recognition of the regime and not shaking hands with them in any way is the standard to not betray Georgians. Pressure for new elections, sanctions, and recognition of the continued legitimacy of President Zourabichvili is how friends and partners can actually take steps to aid us. 3/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 4:52 AM
For information’s sake, the population at large does not care about the presidential residence since it’s not an established building like the White House, and “average people” felt like it’s unnecessary to make a battlefield there. 4/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 4:52 AM
So, no one should take the relocation of her residence as a step back or a failure of some sort. An additional step at increasing the temperature was not taken, but the existing temperature is absolutely unharmed.
#GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia #NewElectionsforGeorgia 5/5.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 4:52 AM
Back to Ukraine.
⚡️ Russia attacked Ukraine with over 280 bombs, 370 drones, 80 missiles this week, Zelensky says.
Russia has escalated its aerial assault on Ukraine, launching more than 280 KAB guided bombs, nearly 370 attack drones, and over 80 missiles in the past week, President Zelensky said on Dec. 29.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 29, 2024 at 7:37 AM
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Russia has escalated its aerial assault on Ukraine, launching more than 280 KAB guided bombs, nearly 370 attack drones, and over 80 missiles in the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 29.
“Our cities and communities are under constant Russian attacks. Even on Christmas night, Russia organized a massive air attack,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram, sharing footage of the destruction across Ukraine.
On Dec. 25, Russia conducted a large-scale attack, firing 78 missiles and 106 drones against multiple cities. Kharkiv came under “massive fire” from ballistic missiles, resulting in one death and six injuries.
During the same attack, a Russian missile entered Moldovan airspace, Moldovan President Maia Sandu confirmed.
Unverified reports claimed another missile entered Romanian airspace, though Romania’s Defense Ministry denied any violation. Poland scrambled fighter jets in response to the missile threat in western Ukraine, according to the Polish Operational Command.
“I am grateful to the defenders who save our people from daily attacks and to the partners who understand the importance of timely air defense to protect lives and bring a just and fair peace,” Zelensky said.
The president underscored the need for collective action, saying, “Such terror can only be stopped with joint efforts.”
Ukraine develops low-cost cruise missile able to hit Moscow.
Uncertain over future Western support, Ukraine is very rapidly developing its own missile arsenal. Kyiv’s allies will soon no longer have a veto on Ukrainian strikes on military targets deep in Russia.www.radiosvoboda.org/a/raketa-tre…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 12:29 PM
Machine translated from Radio Svoboda:
Ukraine has developed an inexpensive cruise missile «Trembling», an improved version of which can reach Moscow, reportI used to British magazine The Economist, whose correspondent visited the test launches of the rocket near Kyiv. Informs about it «Voice of America».
One of the advantages of new weapons, missiles «Trembits», named after the Ukrainian folk musical instrument used by shepherds in the Carpathians, is the ability to fly at low altitudes, which can allow it to avoid missile defense, Ukrainian military engineers explain in the article. It is also ten times cheaper than Russian and Western missiles.
According to The Economist, the engine «Trembits», whose installation really resembles a thin and long musical instrument, – is a $ 200 remake of the Pulsejet jet engine, which was first used on the German Fau-1 bomb in 1944.
Base «Trembita» flies at a speed of 400 km/years with a range of 200 km, writes The Economist, but to achieve Moscow, a larger and more powerful model is being developed. It is planned that after the final field tests «Trembit» will go into series production.
«Trembita», also called «volatile bomb», was first introduced in July 2023 in a video report by France 24 news channel.
Despite the fact that the rocket is designed by volunteer engineers, it took them only a year and a half to go from the drawing board to the battlefield. According to the magazine, this is – «feat» in an area where this process usually takes many years.
As it adds edition of Army Recognition, which wrote about «Trembit» back in June, the cost of the rocket itself is about 3 thousand dollars, another 7 thousand – high-tech guidance system. But this price is only a small fraction compared to Russian winged and supersonic missiles, such as «Dagger », or «Caliber », which cost between one and two million dollars.
According to The Economist, Ukraine needs its own missiles, because uncertainty prevails over how long Western countries will be ready to supply its weapons.
Much more at the link including imagery and diagrams.
Kherson Oblast:
🦅💥 UAV strikes on Russian positions and vehicles in Pidstepne, Kherson region by 73rd Naval Special Forces Center.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 1:06 PM
Donetsk Oblast:
⚡️ Russian telecom equipment destroyed in occupied Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s intel says.
Four facilities housing telecommunication equipment for the illegal operator Phoenix were destroyed in the Russian-occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s HUR said.
kyivindependent.com/ukraine-disr…
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 29, 2024 at 10:17 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Four facilities housing telecommunication equipment for the illegal operator Phoenix, used by Russian forces, were destroyed in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said on Dec. 29.
Without explicitly claiming responsibility, the agency said that “disruptions to the Russian military‘s logistics and communications are an important continuous process.”
The Phoenix is a telecommunications operator active in the Russian-occupied part of Donetsk Oblast since 2015.
HUR further reported fires that melted cellular equipment in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast and destroyed three railway relay cabinets in Yaroslavl Oblast.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.
Sabotage operations targeting Russian railways and other parts of infrastructure have been reported throughout the full-scale war.
The Atesh partisan group reported burning down a relay cabinet near the village of Chekhov in Moscow Oblast in early December, disrupting Russian supply lines
These coordinated attacks highlight Ukraine’s strategy to weaken Russian operational and logistical capabilities as the war continues.
Rostov Oblast, Russia:
In Salsk, Rostov Oblast, local residents spotted a strange-looking UFO that allegedly crashed into a “locomotive depot.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 8:06 AM
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
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Open thread!
TBone
Thanks Adam, adding a helpful to me explainer.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241229-kavelashvili-sworn-in-as-georgia-s-president-as-predecessor-vows-to-fight-on
A Ghost to Most
“It’s almost like it’s a world war.”
No almost about it.
Old School
That’s pretty slow.
Thanks Adam – I hope you enjoy your event today.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Explain the Indian intelligence officer presence on Eagle S. Russian, Chinese, Turkish, Iranian, sure. I can understand any and/or all of those. But Lloyd’s List stated that there were Indian intelligence officers, which I find hard to understand their presence. (Or am I misunderstanding and the ship’s crew was targeting Indian intelligence signals?)
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
General armchair warrior question: Can you expand a bit on shadow fleets or link to a good explainer? I can understand Russian tankers and similar through complicated overseas registrations to various kleptocrats. I understand the Chinese fishing fleets armed to teeth (I do freshwater fishing and can understand the unspoken desire to sink a-hole rival fishing boats). But what other dark fleets are out there, including the US?
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
anachronym
actual topic aside, just wanted to appreciate all of the functional bsky embeds now. I don’t think I’d seen a single working twitter embed in an article on this site in *years*. Every one of those embeds is working perfectly and it’s beautiful.
KatKapCC
@A Ghost to Most: Adam’s “almost” was sarcastic.
Frank Wilhoit
The purpose of Trump’s Greenland play (however it pans out) is to make it harder for anyone to get visibility into what Russia is doing in the high latitudes.
Anonymous At Work
@Frank Wilhoit: He was mocked after he suggested buying it. So he’s suggesting to buy it again more strongly as part of “No mockery goes unaddressed ever.” That or profiting (see Panama Canal and the Trump Organization’s unpaid taxes) are the only things that motivate a malignant narcissist with daddy issues over his money-grubbing sociopathic father.
strange visitor (from another planet)
as always, thanks adam for the excellent work.
i like how the ukranian LRD/cruise missile looks a whole lot like the v-1buzzbomb.
can you give us an update on what’s happening in kursk when you get a chance?
Peke Daddy
Is it general empire exhaustion leading to this incompetent waging of this multi faceted war, or is it a conscious strategy to create a White World coalition to fight China? Been listening to some Daniel Sheehan lectures, and running into some food for thought about the latter.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1873281055572333008#m
Baud
Thanks for all you do, Adam.
Baud
RIP Jimmy Carter.
japa21
@Baud:
definitely. I was thinking this morning that I actually hoped it would happen while Biden was President.
Citizen Alan
@A Ghost to Most: In the future (assuming we get a future of some kind past the end of this century), historians will say that World War 3 began in earnest in the summer and fall of 2016. That in its early and most important stages it was fought mainly in cyberspace. And that the initial victory of the New Russian Empire was so total that Great Britain voluntarily committed economic suicide while America twice elected Czar Putin’s handpicked viceroy to oversee the dismantling of America as a global power and a functioning democracy.
strange visitor (from another planet)
@Citizen Alan: possibly. or eight years earlier when putin sent troops into georgia.
Gin & Tonic
@Old School: That’s a weird artifact of translating Ukrainian to English and back. The original says 400km/hr. I could explain exactly what happened if I had a bit more time this evening.
And for those interested, the “trembita” is a musical instrument very close to the Swiss alpenhorn, originally used by shepherds to communicate over long distances.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
I’d add
– Dropping an anchor in a sea lane crossed by seabed cables and pipelines will be considered to be an act of war.
Torrey
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you for this explanation. I always find your background information helpful and informative.
lowtechcyclist
This is still much less of a world war than the Cold War was, and nobody called that a world war at the time because they remembered WWII and even WWI.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1873428037431103746#m
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/NasimiAghayev/status/1873329860543672395#m
YY_Sima Qian
@Anonymous At Work: Much of the PRC’s regional fishing fleets are armed (w/ small arms & heavy machine guns) because they form of the PRC’s Maritime Militia. They are a key part of the PRC’s toolbox for grey zone action intimidating rival claimants in the South China Sea, to “squat” on disputed features &/or to prevent rival claimants from “squatting” on said features, where the PRC wants some [very thinly veiled] deniability. They generally act in concert w/ the Chinese Coast Guard, & w/ the PLAN providing overwatch further away.
Vietnam also has a similar maritime militia serving similar functions, though at a much smaller scale.
The PRC oceangoing fishing vessels that often fish at the edges other state’s EEZs, or w/in the EEZs of smaller states unable to enforce their maritime rights, are mostly doing so at their own initiative, following the lead of Japanese, South Korean & Taiwanese vessels in the decades prior. The PRC government has not been compelled or embarrassed enough to start enforcing against such practice.
YY_Sima Qian
@Peke Daddy: It’s all of the above. The diverse parts of the MAGA coalition are trying to advance their own agendas, which are sometimes in congruence (plutocracy/kleptocracy, authoritarianism, “anti-woke”, global primacy/hegemony) & sometimes in tension (skilled immigration).
How they might square the H1B visa issue could be ending birthright citizenship, while expanding H1B visas & guest worker programs w/o any path to permanent residence, let alone citizenship. That way, the kleptocrats can keep their abundant source of highly exploitable skilled/semi-skilled/unskilled labor w/o undermining their Herrevolk white ethnonationalism. They’ll want to keep the huge pool of undocumented immigrants as labor they could really exploit.
gene108
@Jay:
A spike in oil prices will be bad globally. The price went up in 2022, in part, because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The post-pandemic inflation increase helped contribute to Sri Lanka toppling its elected government via protests in 2022. It led to 30% to 40% inflation in Pakistan.
It would harm the global South, which does not uniformly have the oil reserves of North America.
Gin & Tonic
@Torrey: Thank you for the kind words.
Jay
@gene108:
The cap on ruZZian oil prices and the Ghost Fleet are not keeping oil prices down. Oil prices are down, because of overproduction.
The sanctions are actually feeding the glut, because an unethical refiner or middleman can buy ruZZian blood oil at below Brent rates, off of a Ghost Fleet tanker, transfer it to a “legit” Coastal Freighter and pocket the 35% difference as extra profit.
As a result, ruZZia is selling as much oil as they can pump, way past quotas, India, China, Venezuela, Greece are refining it as fast as it comes in, and legit suppliers have seen major volume drops.
80% of ruZZia’s income is oil, every gallon is another dead Ukrainian.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
PIGL
@A Ghost to Most: What Adam first wrote “Russia must be reduced,” I thought he was over the top. I no longer think so.
way2blue
@Bill Arnold: Yes! Have been scratching my head as to what justification any ship could offer for having their anchor on the seafloor of a shipping channel while underway.