A quick housekeeping note: It was another very long day today and I’ve got a very long week ahead of me. So, I’m going to keep tonight’s update, and most likely the rest of the week’s, brief/on the shorter side and just cover the basics.
All of central Ukraine is currently – 6:33 PM EST/1:33 AM local time in Ukraine – under air raid alert for drone swarms. Which is a bit of an improvement from an hour ago when it was all of eastern and central Ukraine.
Right now in Ukraine, eight oblasts are on alert due to Russian/Iranian Shahed attack drowns buzzing about.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 4:37 PM
President Zelenskyy travelled to Davos today to address the World Economic Forum. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Europe Needs to Compete for the Top Spot in Priorities, Alliances, and Technological Development – Speech by the President at the World Economic Forum
21 January 2025 – 16:57
Ladies and gentlemen,
I want to talk about the future of Europe with you – which basically means the future of most people here.
Right now, all eyes are on Washington. But who’s actually watching Europe at the moment? That’s the key question for Europe. And it’s not just about ideas. It’s about people first of all. About how they’ll live in a world that’s constantly changing.
20 hours ago, President Trump’s inauguration took place in Washington. And now everyone is waiting to see what he’ll do next. His first executive orders have already shown clear priorities. Most of the world’s now thinking – so, what’s gonna happen to their relationship with America? What will happen to alliances? To support? To trade? How does President Trump plan to end wars?
But no one is asking these kinds of questions about Europe. And we need to be honest about that.
When we in Europe look at the United States as our ally, it’s clear – they are an indispensable ally.
In times of war, everyone worries – will the United States stay with them? Every ally worries about that. But does anyone in the United States worry that Europe might abandon them someday – might stop being their ally? The answer is no.
Washington does not believe Europe can bring them something that is really substantial.
I remember last year’s Asia Security Summit in Singapore – the Shangri-La Dialogue. There, representatives of the U.S. delegation openly said – their top security priority is the Indo-Pacific region, the second is the Middle East and the Gulf, and only the third is Europe. And that was under the previous Administration.
Will President Trump even notice Europe? Does he see NATO as necessary? And will he respect EU institutions?
Ladies and gentlemen,
Europe can’t afford to be second or third in line for its allies. If that happens, the world will start moving forward without Europe, and that’s a world that won’t be comfortable or beneficial for all Europeans.
Europe needs to compete for the top spot in priorities, alliances, and technological development.
We’re at yet another turning point, which some see as a problem for Europe, but others call a chance. Europe must establish itself as a strong global player. As an indispensable player.
Let’s not forget – there’s no ocean separating European countries from Russia. And European leaders should remember this – battles involving North Korean soldiers are now happening in places geographically closer to Davos than to Pyongyang.
Russia is turning into a version of North Korea – a country where human life means nothing, but they have nuclear weapons and a burning desire to make their neighbors’ lives miserable.
Even though Russia’s overall economic potential is way smaller than Europe’s, it produces several times more ammo and military equipment than all of Europe combined. That’s exactly the path of wars Moscow chooses to take.
Putin signed the new strategic deal with Iran. He already has the comprehensive treaty with North Korea. Whom do they make such deals against? Against you, against us. Against Europe, against America. We must not forget about it. It is not by chance. These are their strategic priorities, and our priorities must match the challenge – in politics and in defense and in economy.
Such threats can only be countered together. Even when it comes to army size.
Russia can field about 1.3, maybe 1.5 million troops. We’ve got more than 800,000 in our military. Second after us comes France, with over 200,000. Then Germany, Italy, and the UK. Everyone else has less. This isn’t a situation where one country can secure itself alone. It’s about all of us standing together to mean something.
For now, thankfully, the influence of Iran’s regime is weakening. This gives hope for Syria and Lebanon. And they should too become examples of how life can recover after war.
Ukraine’s already stepping in to support the new Syria. Our ministers have been to Damascus, we’ve launched a food aid program for Syria called ‘Food from Ukraine,’ and we’re getting our partners involved to invest in these deliveries and in building food production facilities. Europe could totally step in as a security donor for Syria – time to stop getting headaches from that direction.
And Europe together with America should put paid to the Iranian threat.
Next.
Right now, it’s not clear whether Europe will even have a seat at the table when the war against our country ends. We see how much influence China has on Russia. We’re deeply grateful to Europe for all the support it’s given our country during this war. But will President Trump listen to Europe, or will he negotiate with Russia and China without Europe?
Europe needs to learn how to fully take care of itself, so that the world can’t afford to ignore it.
It’s vital to maintain unity in Europe, because the world doesn’t care about just Budapest or Brussels – it cares about Europe as a whole.
We need a united European security and defense policy, and all European countries must be willing to spend as much on security as is truly needed, not just as much as they’ve gotten used to during years of neglect. If it takes 5% of GDP to cover defense, then so be it, 5% it is. And there is no need to play with people’s emotions that defense should be compensated at the expense of medicine or pensions or something else – that’s really not fair.
We’ve already set up models of cooperation for Ukraine’s defense that can make all of Europe stronger. We’re building drones together – including some totally unique ones that no one else in the world has. We’re producing artillery together – and in Ukraine, it’s much cheaper and faster than in any other country in the world.
And investing now in Ukrainian drones’ production is investing not only in the security of Europe but the ability of Europe to be a security guarantor for other vital regions.
And we need to start building air defense systems together – ones that can actually handle all types of cruise and ballistic missiles. Europe needs its own version of the Iron Dome, something that can deal with any kind of threat.
We can’t rely on goodwill from a few capitals when it comes to Europe’s security – whether it’s Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, Rome, or – after Putin kicks the bucket – some imaginary democrat in Moscow someday.
And we need to make sure no European country is dependent on a single energy supplier – especially not Russia. Right now, things are on our side – President Trump is going to export more energy.
But Europe needs to step up and do more long-term work to secure real energy independence. You can’t keep buying gas from Moscow while also expecting security guarantees, help, and backup from the Americans. That’s just wrong.
For example, the Prime Minister of Slovakia is not seeking access to the US gas but does not lose hope to enjoy the US security umbrella.
Europe must have a seat at the table when deals about war and peace are made. And I’m not just talking about Ukraine here. This should be the standard.
Europe deserves to be more than just a bystander, with its leaders reduced to posting on X after an agreement has already been made. Europe needs to shape the terms of those deals.
Next.
We need a completely new, bolder approach to tech companies and technological development. If we waste time, Europe will lose this century.
Now, Europe is falling behind in the development of artificial intelligence.
Already, TikTok’s algorithms are more powerful than some governments. Already, the fate of small countries depends more on the owners of tech companies than on their laws. Already, Europe is not leading in the global tech race, falling behind both America and China. This isn’t some minor issue – it’s about weakness, first technological and economic, then political.
Europe is often more focused on regulation than on freedom, but when smart regulation is needed, Brussels hesitates. We should ensure maximum tech development in Europe and together make all significant decisions – for the whole Europe.
From weapons production to tech development – Europe must lead.
Europe must become the most attractive market in the world – and that’s achievable.
And finally, Europe must be able to guarantee peace and security – for everybody, for itself and for others, for those in the world who matter to Europe.
Europe deserves to be strong. And for this, Europe needs the EU and NATO.
Is this possible without Ukraine and without a just end to Russia’s war against Ukraine? I’m certain the answer is no.
Only real security guarantees for us will serve as real security guarantees for everyone in Europe. And we must ensure that America also sees us as essential. For that to happen, America’s focus must shift to Europe. So that one day, in Washington, they’ll say – all eyes on Europe. And not because of war. But because of the opportunities in Europe.
Europe needs to know how to defend itself.
Hundreds of millions of people visit Europe to see its landmarks, to learn from its cultural heritage. Millions in the world dream of living like the Europeans do. Will we be able to keep it and pass it to our children? If we in Europe can answer positively America will need Europe as well as other global players.
Europe must shape history for itself and its allies to remain not just relevant, but alive and great.
Thank you.
Слава Україні!
President Zelenskyy also sat for an interview with representatives of the International Media Council.
There is no posted transcript.
Georgia:
Day 55 large-scale, continuous; day 85 overall.
We want new, free and fair elections and the release of the regime prisoners.
#GeorgiaProtests #NewElectionsforGeorgia— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Protests are held daily in Tbilisi and Batumi in support of @netgazeti.org director Mzia Amaghlobeli who’s on a hunger strike in jail. In solidarity with Mzia, another regime prisoner, Revaz Kiknadze, also went on a hunger strike. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 10:22 AM
1/2 🚨 In Batumi, protests in support of Mzia Amaghlobeli continue daily. Media representatives gathered outside the Special Investigation Service, demanding an immediate investigation and recognition of Mzia Amaghlobeli as a victim.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 2:30 AM
2/2 Protesters are also calling for Batumi police chief Irakli Dgebuadze to be held accountable and suspended for inhumane and degrading treatment of Mzia Amaghlobeli.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Tite Aroshidze, a member of the GD faction in the Autonomous Republic of Adjara, was elected rector of Batumi State University. Protesting students remain inside the university, chanting: “No Justice, No Peace”, “Fire to oligarchy”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 6:49 AM
BREAKING:
❌The Court of Appeals has rejected Mzia Amaglobeli’s appeal, keeping her in pretrial detention.
⭕️A pretrial hearing is set for March 4, where the decision on her detention will be reviewed.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorInGeorgia
#RepressionInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 21, 2025 at 8:30 AM
⭕️Rezo Kiknadze, detained during pro-European protests, has begun a hunger strike in solidarity with Mzia Amaglobeli.
🛑Mzia Amaglobeli, co-founder and CEO of Netgazeti & Batumelebi, has refused food since her detention, now marking the 10th day of her protest.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 21, 2025 at 7:02 AM
@Zourabichvili_S states: “Mzia Amaglobeli, you are not alone in this historical fight for Georgia’s freedom”.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 6:39 AM
A guy plays the Polish anthem between two police cars at the Tbilisi protest, and a girl stands there with the flag of Georgia
I accidentally stopped recording the video, but I think the melody is distinguishable still. #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Back to Ukraine.
💬 “Today, 608,000 Russian troops are stationed on Ukrainian territory. This is three times the size of the force that initially invaded in 2022. When people say there is enough aid, compare the circumstances then and what we are facing now,” said Zelenskyy.
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) January 21, 2025 at 12:52 PM
From United24 Media:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the increasing military threat from Russia, emphasizing the need for strong security guarantees to ensure Europe’s safety.
According to Zelenskyy, the Russian military presence in Ukraine has tripled since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, now numbering over 600,000 troops.
The President made the statement during his speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland on January 21.
“Today, 608,000 Russian troops are stationed on Ukrainian territory. This is three times the size of the force that initially invaded in 2022. When people say there is enough aid, compare the circumstances then and what we are facing now,” said Zelenskyy.
Very notable that Ukraine has been targeting aircraft manufacturing and repair infrastructure in its latest wave of attacks on fascist Russia, as well as oil industry targets. It’s working down a list. What’s next?
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Kupyansk:
According to local authorities, the Russian army has been relentlessly shelling Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region all day with artillery and drones.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Kharkiv:
For the second day in a row, Russia has targeted police cars in the Kharkiv region. Today, they injured three police officers by launching a “Molniya” drone into their vehicle.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Velyka Novosilka:
A Ukrainian trench in the area of Velyka Novosilka. Had some tea and back to “work” again.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Pokrovsk:
This is how the main street and houses look like after yesterday’s shelling by Russians.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 5:52 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Ukrainian paratroopers showcased the successful demilitarization of Russian forces in the Kursk region.
The “special military operation” is going according to plan.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 6:20 AM
A Ukrainian drone powerfully liberated a civilian house in the Kursk region from Russian soldiers.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 4:49 AM
Saratov, Russia:
Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia: Extremely low-flying drone in Saratov Oblast caught on video. Voice on video: “*swearing There it is! Overhead! *swearing Look, I saw it! I managed to film it!”
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Rostov Oblast, Russia:
The Rostov region was visited by buzzing unidentified flying objects, with local authorities reporting attempts to shoot down about 10 of them. Locals are filming and, as always, are thrilled.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Voronezh Oblast, Russia:
In Voronezh Oblast in Russia meanwhile, the Russians had some success in blowing up an overflying drone with small-arms fire from the ground.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 21, 2025 at 4:29 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
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Open thread!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
wjca
Thank you, Adam
YY_Sima Qian
TikTok‘s CEO was sat next to Tulsi Gabbard during the inauguration. If the platform’s threat to US national security was fairly theoretical before, & was actually less of a threat to liberal democracy in the US relative to other social media platforms, it is a threat to both now, through the actions of the Trump Administration.
I don’t use TikTok myself, but I see a lot of comments by US TikTokers on RedNote that the revived TikTok‘s recommendation algorithm is unrecognizable & much more like that of Facebook & Instagram. That might suggest the contours of a “deal”: the Trump Administration does not fully enforce the law & allows TikTok to operate in the US under a JV structure & w/o access to the source codes to the recommendation algorithms held in Beijing, in exchange for TikTok transforming into yet another platform dominated by the reactionaries. If that deepens political division in the US, so much the better from the CPC regime’s perspective, & w/o having to get its own hands dirty to boot.
Manyakitty
Gonna be a lot of long days to come. Thank you for these updates.
Manyakitty
@YY_Sima Qian: wow, that’s dark.
funlady75
thanks Adam…have a great week. take care.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: @wjca: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@funlady75: You’re welcome.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Here is a Bytedance, Inc (-authors) paper on what may be a part of TikTok’s recommender algorithm pipeline, or a precursor.
Monolith: Real Time Recommendation System With Collisionless Embedding Table (27 Sep 2022)
I’d wait a few days to see if the observed changes continue, since it didn’t have American input for a bit, and recency bias would skew the feed.
But agreed, a resurrected US-owned (either USA or corporate) tiktok would almost certainly shift to boosting reactionary/fascist pro-Trump-administration content; the administration and Musk and et al have been transparent about this, though not explicit. They appear to be pursuing Hungary’s model; media control through corporate proxies. Including social media.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: The only potential “saving grace” is that the negotiations between US interests (Trump Admin. & US suitors) & PRC interests (the CPC regime & ByteDance) could still fail. There are reporting that Trump wants to tie tariffs against the PRC to ByteDance selling TikTok USA, & I doubt that is a game Xi’ is interested in playing (can’t give in to extortionists). Then there’s is the matter of TikTok‘s recommendation algorithm being under PRC export control & highly unlikely to be sold to US interests.
Restructuring TikTok USA‘s ownership is the easiest to resolve. In fact, [primarily US] institutional investors own 60% of ByteDance. If the CPC regime really wants to troll USG, it could institute a new rule capping foreign ownership Chinese internet platforms to 30%, and have the US institutional investors transfer their shares in ByteDance to that of TikTok USA, so that the latter is then 50% owned by US interests.
Whatever happens, a platform that had been relatively friendly to promotion of liberal/progressive/Left/anti-Fascist messaging will either shut down in the US, or transform into one that promotes conservative/reactionary/right wing/authoritarian messaging. Pissing off the Zoomers & TikTok content creators is just the short term consequence of the Biden Admin. & Congressional Dems pushing through legislation mandating TikTok’s divestment/ban.
Traveller
Trump says Putin is destroying Russia….(seems to be important commentary to me…I will try to embed the two minute video I have {keeping it short my friends}…if embed doesn’t work, there will be the link which I should now competently be able to do…lol
I worked hard for Harris/Walz…mostly for Ukraine and female civil rights/reproductive rights and for a more, much more, progressive tax code…well this has been too long a statement! But, as I have written on Gaza, Trump may in truth been the Candidate of Peace, Democrats the Party of continuing war…it pains me to write this, but we are here now and it may be true; life is full of strange twists and turns (ie Trump is in a position of dominance now and does not need Mr Putin’s assistance in any way)).
YY_Sima Qian
@Traveller: You should not read any coherent worldview into anything Trump says. He is just trying to assert rhetorical dominance over Putin to strengthen his bargaining position. Such posturing is unlikely to survive an actual encounter w/ Putin.
I can’t believe that you are buying the Trumpian BS about being for “peace”. Trump has collected a group of the most transparently vile, aggressive, militaristic, selfish & cynical FP advisors around him, & he himself is transparently cynical & transactional. None of them are at all hesitant to employ every tool & leverage the US has at its disposal to assert dominance & extract concessions from everyone else (be they adversaries, competitors, neutrals, partners or allies) to maximize what they perceive to be the US’ position (which does not necessarily correspond to benefiting the US middle & working classes).
However, they may focus on their attention on the weaker nations that are more likely to buckle under their pressure, such as Panama, Mexico, Canada & Denmark. Trump himself clearly has no interest in fighting a great power war w/ either the PRC or Russia. There are many in the US FP “Blob” who are convinced that war w/ the PRC is inevitable & active court this outcome, & many more believe that a Cold War w/ the PRC should be the organizing principle for US foreign & domestic policy, a bunch of them have been nominated to hold senior positions in the Trump Administration. OTOH, I am starting to get the sense that at least some of the most hawkish types have been playacting as hawks, who have come to realize that a hot war w/ the PRC would be suicidal, & thus are only promoting hawkish policies for their benefactors among MIC & SV techbros.
It seems that the Trump team is willing to sacrifice a lot of European interests to pursue rapprochement w/ Putin, & try, however futile the attempt, to peel Russia off from the PRC. When push comes to shove, the Trump team may well be willing to sacrifice Taiwan to avoid great power war w/ the PRC. For the past 8+ years, the pro-independence DPP government in Taiwan had pursued a strategy of aligning closely w/ the US in the latter’s competition w/ the PRC, overturning the more balanced policy of the previous KMT government, in order to fend off the rising pressure from across the Taiwan Strait. w/ Trump back in power, I don’t think that strategy is viable or sustainable anymore. Trump will be very willing to employ Taiwan as leverage in dealing w/ Beijing, likely to the point of recklessness, & thus greatly heighten the risk of crossing Beijing’s red lines & lead to a war that will ruin Taiwan. At the same time, Trump is more likely to abandon Taiwan to its fate when the sh*t actually hits the fan. Even if the DPP establishment cannot see the changes in currents, it will be obvious to the opposition parties that currently control the parliament, as well as to much of the population.
I recommend Van Jackson for detailed analyses of both the actual militarist/primacist/malevolent nature of MAGA FP (anything but peaceful), & how Biden’s & Dem establishment’s desperate status quo institutionalism (which at its core is primacist & interventionist, which have increasingly in tension w/ mass sentiments since the GWOT) have incredibly ceded the “anti-war” ground to the former in the minds of low information voters.
Traveller
Dear YY_Sima Qian
I wrote elsewhere several months before the election that Trump was becoming to be seen as the peace candidate as between himself and Ms Harris. I think this factor played out importantly and in Trump’s favor in reference to this past election. Maybe interestingly, I oppose an end to the fighting in both Wars. I would prefer to see Hamas utterly removed and likewise Russia in Ukraine, but instead now we’ll have to wait and see the progress of events. Needless to say when I write this on the more Progressive blogs, there’s much distress as to my opinion in these regards.
It isn’t so much that I have purchased Trump’s BS, as it is simply I believe it is true that neither of the warring parties, neither Israel nor Hamas, wanted to deal with Tump once he was in office. Hence, Trump was central to the success of the ceasefire happening at all.
You always write so well and so much that it is probably not possible for me to touch on everything you have brought up.
But maybe of interest to you, I have a considerably large Chinese and/or Taiwanese clientele in my practice. I am always fretting over Taiwan, but all my Chinese and/or Taiwanese clients think about this far less than I do, and think of me as being an alarmist in these regards. They assure me that nothing is going to happen. I probably disagree and also worry considerably about the growing Chinese Navy, to include Landing ships, and their expansion to the nine-dash line in the South China Sea.
However, already, this post is becoming a bit too long and so I will part with good wishes towards you for the Chinese New Year, on January 29. best Wishes, Traveller
bookworm1398
This may have been mentioned before but does the freezing of all foreign aid apply to Ukraine and how much does it matter?
Traveller
@bookworm1398: No, Trump specifically excluded Ukraine and Israel from this stopping of foreign aid. I think it matters quite a bit. But is always subject to change. Best Wishes, Traveller
YY_Sima Qian
@Traveller: Well, on Gaza I will just say that I was shocked by the footage from the release of the 1st 3 Israeli hostages. The Hamas fighters at the scene looked organized, fit, dressed in new uniforms, brandishing new-looking arms & driving newish vehicles. Certainly does not look like the ragtag remnants of guerrillas hidden in tunnels for months, as the IDF pulverized & demolished the landscape above & slaughtered countless civilians to target any & all Hamas/PIJ personnel it could find, that one would expect.
Makes you wonder what has the Israeli war of vengeance achieved over the past 16 months, besides rendering most of Gaza uninhabitable, killed many tens of thousands of Gazans, & brutalized & traumatized the rest. Not to mention deaths of hundreds of IDF soldiers, many more wounded, & untold numbers suffering from the psychological effects (either in the form of trauma or in the form of moral unmooring) for having meted out such slaughter. Either the war was ill-conceived at the strategic level such that Hamas could not possibly have been eliminated, or much of it was a charade to prolong Bibi’s position in power.
As for Taiwan, I agree that very few Mainland Chinese or Taiwanese I meet are particularly concerned about the prospect of a cross-Strait war. OTOH, the PLA is clearly executing Xi’s directive to attain the capability to invade & conquer Taiwan by 2027. That is not to be confused w/ a political decision to actually launch such an invasion, but more of the case of giving Xi a realistic option (even if still fraught with/ risks).
Here is the most recent example:
& what I think is the most accurate take:
Traveller
Understood on Gaza…gotta run…have a great day (or evening…lol…depending on where you are). Best Wishes, Traveller