There’s a Repub-on-Repub slap-fight playing out in Tallahassee this week that you might have missed due to the galloping catastrophe in DC. But maybe it’s worth a look as a potential preview of coming attractions.
The GOP’s moves in DC this week to stand up a durable right-wing kleptocracy were road-tested in Florida, where a deeply corrupt and unaccountable authoritarian state government is already a reality.
For one thing, the drama in Tallahassee may yield clues about how Repubs will react when Trump exits the political scene. The short answer? Like feral children with an unshakable hold on power, so not good!
Republicans hold a supermajority in the FL statehouse. After ceding their power to Ron DeSantis and functioning as a tool to further his presidential ambitions for several years (sound familiar?), Repub lawmakers have decided Florida’s Angriest Kumquat isn’t DeFuture after all.
So now when DeSantis jerks them around, they jerk him around right back. Would-be Trump successors should take note. From the Tampa Bay Times:
TALLAHASSEE — In collaboration with the White House, Republican leaders in the Florida Legislature revamped and approved a bill on Tuesday that seeks tougher penalties on immigrants in the country illegally who commit crimes — and removes much of the governor’s authority over immigration, an issue that Gov. Ron DeSantis has made a cornerstone of his legacy in Florida.
The legislation, “Tackling and Reforming Unlawful Migration Policy” — nicknamed the TRUMP Act — was amended to include several new provisions that House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton said were suggested by the Trump administration. They said the changes will align the state’s immigration laws to the new changes ushered in by President Donald Trump to identify and deport scores of people who are in the country illegally.
In moving to strip the governor’s authority, some Repub lawmakers cited his irresponsible use of state funds to pay a crony’s aviation outfit millions to fly a handful of migrants from Texas to Massachusetts. (Note: these same Repub lawmakers were cheering DeSantis on while it was happening.)
For his part, DeSantis complained that handing immigration enforcement to the Ag Commissioner (an agribusiness multimillionaire) is putting the fox in charge of the henhouse. True enough, but the debate is over which fox gets the guard gig. Remember, no one in this scenario has the hens’ wellbeing in mind.
These are all deeply terrible and corrupt people, so it doesn’t really matter which side “wins.” For the state’s Democrats, who are more firmly shut out of power than ever, the only upside is comic relief while watching GOP officials body-blocking one another for the chance to apply their lips to Trump’s flabby orange ass.
I suspect this is a preview of DeFuture for the national Repubs when the character at the center of it all finally goes away. Trump is pushing 80, and even that evil fucker will die or become incapacitated at some point. Given his age and rate of decline, actuarial arbitrage may arrive sooner than expected.
Trump’s “appeal” has never made sense to me, but it exists, and so far, no one else in that party can replicate it. Certainly not DeSantis, as the wing-nut Florida lawmakers have evidently concluded.
Sadly, I don’t expect the state’s Democrats to benefit from the rift in the rival party. In Florida, Repubs used a period of dominance early in the century to entrench power. They did this by redistricting, co-opting and corrupting institutions, stacking the courts, intimidating businesses and playing factions among rivals against each other.
My greatest political fear is that Republicans will do the same nationally. Apart from his carnival barker skills, Trump is as dumb as a stump, but this time, there are bottomless-pocketed monopolists as well as ruthless and fanatical ideologues around Trump who are singularly focused on the objective.
I don’t think we’re doomed on the national level yet, but there are worrying signs, e.g., confusion and infighting among the opposition that’s starting to look like a Florida-style crab bucket scenario. Here, as in many other places in the grip of a soft autocracy that maintains the bare trappings of democracy, each subgroup tends to focus on its own (perfectly valid!) grievances and fails to work together to defeat the common enemy.
I sure hope we can avoid that fate because let me tell you, it’s no fun at all. Open thread.
WTFGhost
And this, friends, is the full dictionary explanation that Florida is run by a fascist, and Trump, a better fascist, might take it nationally.
And it also shows the weakness: the rest of the nation *won’t* bend the knee. Now, how much that will matter, and how much people will suffer in the interim, *that* is a horrible question I don’t like to contemplate, but we passed the point that universal revulsion would save us, so we need something to introduce that revulsion.
And that’s going to need to be something ugly – though I wish and hope it would be something beautiful that draws people away from ugly.
I bet Moses, Jesus, and Mohammed wished the same sorts of things, if the legends are true.
Gretchen
I’m worried that until Trump is unequivocally out of the picture, nobody will challenge him. They’re so scared of him they won’t even vote against his cabinet nominees. What if nobody runs against him in the 2028 primary?
The Audacity of Krope
Nobody will. He isn’t eligible to run again. If he does anyway, there won’t be a primary in any meaningful sense.
Matt McIrvin
The power of Congress has been declining for decades due to (asymmetrical) partisan gridlock and sometimes even intra-party gridlock, ceding more and more power to the executive. In the states, there’s been a different phenomenon in which the Republicans have a solid legislative majority gerrymandered in place but the Democrats might sometimes be able to win the governorship, so the Republicans lock in great legislative power and diminish the power of the governor whenever they think that’s going to happen.
Can they do that with Congress vs. Presidency? Maybe, but I think it’d be harder. For one thing, Trump doesn’t give a shit about the party, so if the future President isn’t him he’s not going to help much with the lock-in. For another, a party tends to lose the lock on Congressional power before it loses the Presidency. There hasn’t been as much of a Republican lock that can actually pass stuff. But we’ll see, I guess.
Matt McIrvin
The thing I worry about more is, as I’ve said, a bloodier and more organized version of January 6th: An organized paramilitary just come into some joint session and kill everybody, this time with Trump promising in advance to pardon them. Then everyone just throws up their hands and says, welp, turns out there IS no rule against a mule being a placekicker! Guess he’s King now! Congressional Democrats can’t keep him in check if they’re dead (or in a prison camp).
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Why is that not good? Particularly if there’s injuries, bloodletting and implosion? Well, at least among the (R) feral children.
hells littlest angel
CNN:
Scientists update their prediction of how close we are to the end of the world
Spoiler alert: Don’t buy green bananas.
@mistermix.bsky.social
I will remain forever baffled as to why our press corpse decided this guy was “the man”. Even when rw media tried to shove this guy down the craw of their audience, they puked him up.
WTFGhost
@Matt McIrvin: one thing you’re missing: the courts, staffed by Republican partisans, want the Presidency to be powerful when a Republican holds it, and useless when a Democrat does.
It’s not just “balance of power/checks and balances” – Republicans will stall a Republican administration’s investigations, and insist that there are vicious criminals around the corner of *every* single investigatory corridor when a Democrat is in power. We *JUST SAW THAT*.
So, while Congress’ power has decreased due to gridlock, their power to investigate is still right up there and in full display… but only when a Democrat is the target.
catclub
@hells littlest angel: The scientific american articles on this always revert to bell curves/ normal gaussian distributions.
So we are in the most likely to be in the middle of the curve.
stinger
@The Audacity of Krope:
He ran this time mostly to stay out of jail, so he has much less motivation to run in 2028. Now that the Supine Court has given him a free pass. And I expect he’ll blanket pardon himself, as well.
Dave
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Suppose not good from a proscriptive perspective on what government is supposed to be but I agree I’d rather they be riven with infighting as opposed to working well together to accomplish terrible things.
Matt McIrvin
@@mistermix.bsky.social: If you’re talking about DeSantis, I figure they just assumed there needed to be a next Trump, and DeSantis consciously tried as hard as he could to pretend to be the next Trump.
In fact the next Trump was Trump. He’ll be the only Trump at least until he dies. The mini-Trumps can only sustain it locally for a little while.
Jeffro
boy, you’re not kidding!
Does anyone else here get the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER)’s newsletter? Fun stuff.
(along those lines: did anyone else read Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen? That was a great read…in the sense that I’m glad all the ‘preppers’ are completely wasting their money and time.)
Baud
@hells littlest angel:
I feel fine.
Jager
My younger daughter is a social worker. Last month she quit her job, after accepting a new job in another state. Without federal funding, her new job doesn’t exist…
No job, no lease, etc. She has a rescue Belgian Malinois, Casper growls and barks when he sees and hears trump on TV, He’s a good boy!
Betty Cracker
@@mistermix.bsky.social: I think I understand how the turtle got on the fencepost in Florida — it was 100% a Trump shitshow with all the elements that usually entails, i.e., it began with DeSantis fawning over Trump on Fox News and led to the inevitable falling out as their massive egos collided, etc.
As for the mainstream national political press buying into the DeSantis hype, I assume it’s further evidence of their laziness and incompetence. (Gotta admit despite everything, I still worry somehow he’ll end up with political power on the national level. He’s beyond horrible.)
Jeffro
as for this:
I think it’s because our country worships wealth (even if it’s ill-gotten, even if it’s not nearly as big a fortune as advertised) and celebrity (even if it’s the bad kind). Obviously a certain % of the country reveres shamelessness and cruelty as well…damaged cretins recognizing one of their own.
That’s why all the other MAGA scumbag elected officials lack ‘the juice’: none of them have been perceived to be as wealthy for as long as trump has, or have been as famous/infamous for as long as he has. That’s really all it is, I think.
Sometimes I rack my brains for who the next trump could be – someone that famous, that wealthy, and that malicious. I don’t get too far, but maybe that’s just me.
The Audacity of Krope
Luckily Musk isn’t eligible.
H.E.Wolf
I’ll put in my usual recommendation for the Electoral-Vote blog, which covers much more than the Electoral College. Yesterday they had a detailed article on the FL story.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2025/Items/Jan28-3.html
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: Also, Republicans underperformed expectations in most 2022 races while DeSantis ran up a big victory margin in Florida. I think that led reporters and pundits to overestimate his strength as a candidate.
They may also have underestimated the strength of Florida’s state Republican party, and its contribution to DeSantis’s victory. Now it looks more like DeSantis won big despite his qualities as a candidate and not because of them.
Florida seems like a very singular state in its politics. A lot of the dynamics that I see here in Virginia, I can also see in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and of course North Carolina. There seem to be the same groups and types of voters; they just vary in relative number from state to state.
But Florida is like terra incognita for me.
JML
The only good thing about FL these days is Democrats see it as much more of a long shot than a swing state. (which doesn’t help people in FL, but places like GA and NC are much better bets in the south east)
Steve LaBonne
@The Audacity of Krope: Musk certainly has fans, but he has nothing remotely resembling Trump’s feral charisma. He’s as big a dweeb as DeSantis.
ron
my prediction when trump dies some milquetoast but smarter fascist will take over and be more successful in turning the country into an autocracy, like how Tim Cook is now leading Apple or whoever the guy is leading Microsoft.
But then again I am a pessimist.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Steve LaBonne:
My wife has taken up watching some CNN again post-election. Last night during Erin Burnett’s hour, she had on their “data reporter” which basically meant some guy who regurgitates polling data.
He showed that in terms of favorability, Musk is at something like -13% whereas Hair Furor is at 0. In his opinion, fwiw, Musk was dragging the Orange Fart Cloud down.
catclub
I think this part is the ‘authoritarian followers’
who want some strongman to hurt the people they don’t like. (They will ignore the fact that their strongman does the same or similar bad things.)
The bad part of this is how many authoritarian followers there are.
catclub
Musk has millions and millions of online fans. I would say he has a lot of that same charisma. They cheer on his ignoring the SEC.
Jeffro
@Geminid: Googling “why is florida republican” produces some interesting theories…most of which have to do with folks coming to the state for (perceived) lower taxes and lower cost of living. More recently, it’s seen as a conservative redoubt.
Betty Cracker
@Geminid: I’ve lived here all my life and think about it a lot, but I don’t understand Florida politics at all.
tam1MI
Well, as long as we’re sharing our worst fucking nightmares, mine is that the paramilitary tries this, the real military moves in to put it down with maximum bloodshed, and the next thing you know some general or other is sitting in the Oval Office and he’s the President now. Until some other general decides he should be President and puts his troops out in the street.
Cheez Whiz
@@mistermix.bsky.social: is there a deep dive into DeSantis’ history anywhere? When/how he became “competent Trump” with a mission to focus on hurting the right people, instead of just talking about it (like Trump).
It’s clearly a constructed image intended to lure Trump voters, but like everyone else he fundamentally misunderstood Trump’s appeal. Trump is a Celebrity first and formost, judged by different rules than a politician. His voters see a demigod standing up for their beliefs.
Cheez Whiz
@Jeffro: Trump is the Blackest of Swans. A wealthy real estate developer, tutored in power by one of the most twisted lawyers in American history, who seeked out publicity and attention since the 80’s in New York. Books, movie cameos, TV series all glamorizing and promoting his brand before people were a brand. Winning a crowded lackluster Republican primary to run against the most hated woman in America. With a little help from his friends in Russia. Duplicate that.
TheOtherHank
I posted this on bsky the other day: when I’m feeling down I think about how DJTjr and Eric no doubt assume that they are going to be the heirs to their father’s political power and when the orange clown finally exits the scene they are going to be kicked to the curb so fast they won’t know what happened. The sputtering incomprehension of what happens to them is going to be great. Assuming, that is, we’re still around to enjoy it
tam1MI
@Cheez Whiz: Trump is the Blackest of Swans. A wealthy real estate developer, tutored in power by one of the most twisted lawyers in American history, who seeked out publicity and attention since the 80’s in New York. Books, movie cameos, TV series all glamorizing and promoting his brand before people were a brand. Winning a crowded lackluster Republican primary to run against the most hated woman in America. With a little help from his friends in Russia. Duplicate that.
I’ll be the Debbie Downer for this scenario: The Whigs thought the exact same way about Andrew Jackson.
gvg
@WTFGhost: We need to also have messaging that points out the corruption of the courts. Specific instances. I suspect not all states are equally compromised.
Things like “the supreme court ruled that plain bribery isn’t and expect me to believe that? They can argue some fine point of what they claim is the law, but I am not buying it. I assume that the 5 who voted that way are taking bribes. We know 2 of them have been accepting large gifts for years and lying to avoid us knowing about it. Those rulings are a confession of guilt IMO. ” That is my personal opinion and if others say things like that frequently, it will help build the support for reform. It was not there when Biden was in office. The public wasn’t ready and the other elected representatives knew it which is why it didn’t happen.
Sure we need to attack the republican legislators and Trump. We all know that. But don’t forget the courts. Thats part of the problem and part of why some of what worked in the past can’t be risked now. We are afraid of setting bad precidents even though the law should rule in our favor. And we don’t know, but it is risky.
Harrison Wesley
I think it’s the theme parks and other redoubts of the imaginary that make Florida politics different. Consider the fantastic figures in the governor’s mansion: Nosferatu, followed by one of the Visitors, and perhaps next up will be Balloonhead. No,it sure isn’t like other states.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
Ms. Cracker, surely you realize you are lowering the morale of the Circular Firing Squad and making them question their righteous cause! How could you?! Don’t you understand that Democrats should always be blamed and punished for anything a Republican does!?! /s
The Pale Scot
@Jeffro:
U can download it here Documen.
I skimmed it, I found the political mechanisms described dated and implausible. This covers some of my thinking.
Gets it wrong
AS far as NK is concerned, the population might have fanatical Juche adherents, the senior level including Rocket Man aren’t going to annihilate there cushy little sandbox. Why use a missile in the first place, a shipping container is much cheaper and untraceable. The effects are described accurately, which you can here Threads (Scariest horror movie ever)
Paul in KY
@Jager: Good boy!
Paul in KY
@tam1MI: Andrew Jackson is Bismarck combined with Cincinnatus compared to TFG.