(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Last night I included the news that Russia had just attacked a civilian apartment building in Sumy. Tonight we have the details:
At least 4 people died, and 9 others got injured after tonight’s russian drone attack on Sumy.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 6:49 AM
Rescue efforts at the site of a russіan drone strike on a residentiall building in Sumy have been completed.
The attack killed nine civilians and wounded 13.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 1:04 PM
And there are more drone swarms over Ukraine, and air raid alerts for northeastern, north central, and central Ukraine right now.
List of Russian drones currently over Ukraine, from Ukrainian Air Force. Tonight’s attack looks like a particularly heavy one.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
We’ll cover the other Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I’m Receiving Hourly Updates on the Situation in Sumy, Where Recovery Efforts Are Still Ongoing at the Site of a Russian Shahed Strike – Address by the President
30 January 2025 – 20:22
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Here’s the report for today.
The Commander-in-Chief provided an update on the frontline and the Kursk operation. There are achievements for which our brigades deserve recognition, particularly the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, which is bravely and persistently destroying the enemy, as well as the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade – well done, guys! Today, I also extend my gratitude to the Special Operations Forces for their effective strikes on Russian soldiers and equipment. It is very important that every day gives us new results – and that these results are the enemy’s losses, Russia’s losses.
I also had an extensive conversation today with Budanov about our objectives, future prospects, and various scenarios. It is essential to act proactively.
I am receiving hourly updates on the situation in Sumy, where recovery efforts are still ongoing at the site of a Russian Shahed strike. An ordinary residential building was destroyed. Nine people were killed – my condolences to all the families. Thirteen people were injured, including a child. Everyone is receiving the necessary assistance. I want to thank every rescuer, every medical worker, and every police officer assisting on the ground. This is already Russia’s hallmark – destroying the lives of many families, the entire home. And every such Russian strike must face a response from the world – terror must not go unpunished. The most effective response is to support our people and our state, to keep the pressure on Russia, and not to fall for Moscow’s manipulations – whether political or in the media. Russia must be forced into peace. The cause of this war lies solely with Russia.
Several international conversations took place today as well. Lithuania, President Nausėda. I am grateful for all the support, and as always, we will continue working together with other partners in Europe to maintain European unity and strengthen Europe’s ability to act. The Baltic states, the Nordic countries, and many others on the continent are our steadfast allies. It is crucial to convince everyone to stand together. I also spoke with the President of Lebanon today – in particular, we discussed the need for stability and food security. We can help those in need, ensuring that the outcomes in these countries benefit all of us in the long run. A normal life is a necessity for everyone.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
⭕ January 30 marks the 64th day of continuous protests. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked again.
The demands remain unchanged: new parliamentary elections must be called, and all demonstrators detained during the protests must be released.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Slap the regime” protest performance in Batumi and Kutaisi depicting the Batumi Police Head Irakli Dgebuadze who had journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli jailed for up to 7 years over a slap that falls under administrative offenses, not criminal, if charged at all. 1/2
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Later, Dgebuadze claimed he “suffered redness and pain,” spat on Mzia after detention and refused her water and restroom.
Mzia is on her 19th day of the hunger strike.
Sanctioning him is very timely and motivating for Georgians, as well as preventative for the emergence of similar new sadists. 2/2.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Eter Turadze, the editor-in-chief of Batumelebi, stood in a solitary picket outside the parliament in #Tbilisi. She is demanding the release of Mzia Amaglobeli, co-founder and director of the media outlet who has been on hunger strike in prison for 19 days.
#TerrorInGeorgia
#RepressionInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 30, 2025 at 2:43 PM
According to GYLA, Mzia Amaghlobeli struggles to get up to greet her lawyer. Day 19 of her hunger strike in unlawful detention. The entire system, but in particular Batumi Police Head Irakli Dgebuadze, is responsible. Sanctions would be very timely now. #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Joint statement of 14 embassies of the Media Freedom Coalition in Georgia.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 7:59 AM
A viciously beaten inmate hospitalized in Vivamedi is fighting for his life with artificial ventilation with 37 broken facial bones, brain swelling, etc. He was hospitalized with a stroke diagnosis, though, to cover prison brutality traces, the lawyer says. #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 4:43 AM
“The following judges, police officers, and prosecutors are issuing and executing illegal orders. 👇🏻”
— Transparency International Georgia
@transparencyge.bsky.social🇬🇪🇪🇺 #GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia
— ⚫️🐦⬛ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@theskyisnotblue.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Salome Zourabichvili writes:
“How is it possible that in hundreds of administrative cases and 53 criminal cases, the prosecutor’s office is always right? This is a dictatorship! Such are the judges and courts of Georgia today… slaves of Russia and followers of Ivanishvili”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 7:23 AM
On February 2 at 16:00, the entrances and exits of Tbilisi were planned to be blocked.
The demands remain unchanged: the release of those imprisoned for protesting and the scheduling of new parliamentary elections.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Sweden:
🇸🇪🫶🇺🇦Sweden will provide its biggest aid package to Ukraine so far, worth 13.5 billion Swedish crowns ($1.23 billion).
www.reuters.com/world/europe…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 10:05 AM
/2. 90million USD will be allocated by Sweden for the production of the Ukrainian long range drones and missiles
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Lithuania:
Lithuania has delivered short-range man-portable air defense systems to Ukraine.
kam.lt/lietuva-ukra…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Today is “Baba Yaga’s” day.
Once again, Russians report that during the night she dismantled their positions. In particular, the photo shows scattered 82-mm mines.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 2:17 PM
💥Ukrainian warriors of the 14th Unmanned Aviation Systems Regiment launched a missile strike on the Orlan control station.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 1:04 PM
The Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, stated that Russia is using Shahed drones with a new “payload.”
Shahed UAVs now feature an increased warhead of up to 90 kg and metal elements (shrapnel).
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Kharkiv:
Posts like this obviously get less attention than the positive ones, but just the other day, it was only by chance that my father avoided getting hurt by a Molniya drone. I can’t stay quiet, and I’m asking you to keep talking about Kharkiv.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 5:33 AM
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:
Russia destroyed a school in the Dnipropetrovsk region with a glide bomb.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
National Guard soldiers raised the Ukrainian flag behind Russian lines in Donetsk Oblast.
Under the cover of night, pilots from the “Chervona Kalyna” brigade of the National Guard used a drone to place the Ukrainian flag on a tower controlled by the enemy.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Chasiv Yar:
In the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, the enemy’s life is in full swing: the occupiers are transferring provisions and ammunition, sleeping, and receiving medical treatment. But fighters of the “Raroh” Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 24th Brigade see everything.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 5:14 AM
Shot:
“It’s madness. How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?”
⚡️EU officials debate restart of Russian pipeline gas as part of a possible Ukraine peace deal. Backers say may cut energy costs + push Moscow to talk, but idea’s drawn backlash from Kyiv allies. www.ft.com/content/a19a…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) January 30, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Chaser:
Ust-Luga, Russia:
Bloomberg: “Oil flows through Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga appeared to pause, backing up Ukrainian claims of a successful drone strike on a pumping station.”
The flow of oil at the port has dropped to zero. The last tanker left Ust-Luga on the morning of January 29.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Oh uh..
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 2:49 PM
/1. What’s the most unique part of this attack on Russian oil pumping station is the unusual weapon system which was used for this operation.
Russian Novozybkov oil pumping station was attacked by drone-dropped 250kg bombs – FAB-250 M-54.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 5:41 AM
/2. The carriers of such decent munitions are large, long range Ukrainian drones such as E-300 or Aeroprakt.
In April 2024 one such drone crashed on the Russian territory during the mission. (Photos 2-4)
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
I cannot emphasize how stupid it would be for Europe to let Russia off the hook right now by restarting natural gas and/or oil purchases. The Ukrainians, using predominantly Ukrainian made weapons systems and weapons, have done an amazing job striking deep into Russia to reduce Russia’s petroleum production and distribution capabilities and capacity. All that European states would do by restarting purchases is undermine what Ukraine is doing and provide Putin with an escape hatch.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
And now I can go to bed with a clear conscience!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
KatKapCC
Maybe I am too cynical, but this makes me feel like they are almost guaranteed to do just that. Because it seems like with far too many countries, doing the stupid thing is de rigueur.
YY_Sima Qian
IMHO Europe has driven itself into a high energy cost cul-de-sac in terms of policy, as the continent (ex-Russia) is relatively energy poor.
Given the nature of the regime in Moscow, resuming dependence on cheap Russian oil & gas is a on-starter.
US shale oil/gas is abundant, but expensive. Not even the Biden Administration has shown any interest in capping the profit seeking of American gas exporters to give Europe an economic assist, & w/ the transactional & extortionist Trump now back in office, dependence on US energy is only marginally less dangerous than dependence on Russia.
Nuclear energy has been largely neglected, & European ability to build nuclear power plants on budget & of schedule has been much atrophied.
Domestic coal can only supply part of the demand, & ramping up coal fire generation will have large negative impact on air quality & ability to address AGW.
Purchasing clean energy generation & battery storage equipment from the PRC is politically fraught, due to the perception of “dependency” on the PRC & pressure to protect domestic manufacturers (not that there are any European solar module manufacturers left to protect).
That leaves oil & gas from the ME, which is now vulnerable to harassment from the Houthis, which the USN & the European navies have not show the ability to (or at least the inclination to commit the necessary resources) to suppress.
Alternative, European can continue to buy Russian oil through middlemen (such as India), which many European countries have been doing, thus continuing to be dependent on Russia energy, but only now surrendering lucrative mark up to India in order to keep up appearances.
High energy costs is now a major factor rendering European industry increasingly less competitive. Unless that is addressed, much of European (especially the Western half) will continue to face deindustrialization in face of renewed industrial policy in the US & rapidly advancing competition from the PRC, & what industry that remain are more concentrated in the lower cost parts of Europe that retain access to cheap Russian energy & maintain friendly terms w/ Trump/Russia/the PRC (Hungary comes to mind, but not alone). Not a recipe for political stability & fending off the rising populist/nativist/authoritarian waving. That is the problem that has to be solved, & it will not be solved w/ normative grandstanding.
An analytical gap Brussels & the most of the European capitals have yet to bridge is the fact that purchasing solar panels, wind turbines & batteries from the PRC does not make Europe dependent on the PRC. These are all capital assets that have long shelf lives. Once in European hands, these assets belong to European countries. The PRC cannot turn off the sun or the wind, as Putin (& Trump, & the Persian Gulf sheiks) can turn off the oil & gas. The anode & cathode materials in batteries are not consumed, & can be recycled if aged.
To me, the solutions lies in purchasing as much clean energy generation equipment from the PRC (& SK for batteries) as quickly as possible, leverage that demand to push Chinese companies to invest in manufacturing in & tech transfer to Europe. Collaborate w/ the PRC & SK to reinvigorate nuclear energy in Europe (though this is not a cheap or short term solution). Finally, selectively work w/ the PRC’s BRI initiative to ramp up solar/wind power in North Africa, & build UHV transmission lines to supply Europe. Can’t avoid the PRC here because it has dominant position in all of these technologies.
It may not seem politically feasible, but the return of Trump might concentrate the minds in Brussels & the European capitals. Indeed, economic nationalism under the sane, “dependable” & “alliance friendly” Biden Administration should have already concentrated their minds.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: DeepSeek in the PRC has faced enormous DDOS cyberattacks over the past several days, reportedly almost all from the US, since the launch of its R1 open source reasoning large language model (which has put the business models of the top US AI Big Techs in questions, & precipitated a sell off of the NASDAQ on 1/27). While cyber attacks can be routed throughout the world, it is really only the US (USG or especially the AI Big Tech firms) that would have any interest in trying to disrupt DeepSeek‘s launch & impinge of the R1‘s adoption around the world. The attacks have succeeded in causing periodic destabilization of DeepSeek’s web & App portals to its models.
Nevertheless, DeepSeek‘s iOS App had shot to the top of the free App downloads rankings around the world, & has stayed there. Students wanting to utilize an advanced LLM to help w/ their studies strongly prefer DeepSeek‘s (& Kimi‘s & Qwen‘s from Moonshot AI & Alibaba, respectively) nearly free services, major US tech companies inclined to see open source succeed (AWS, Microsoft, Dell, Huggingface, Perplexity, etc.) have been quickly to host the R1 model on their servers (& have not seen disruptions), & AI research teams in academia & startups around the world are downloading smaller distilled models to run locally on their setups.
Other Chinese Big Tech firms, many cased in Hangzhou (where DeepSeek is located) have banded together to work w/ the PRC government to contain & defeat the attacks. It appears the attacks have subsided starting from 1/29.
If the cyberattacks against DeepSeek were indeed carried out by the NSA &/or parts of the US Big Tech, this would mark a major escalation in the Sino-US shadow boxing in the cyber domain into deliberate & damaging attacks. To date, the PRC has been accused of pilfering massive troves of information (for geopolitical, military, technological, industrial & commercial advantage), surveilling high value targets in Western governments/academia/overseas dissents, penetrating & prepositioning in US/allied infrastructure to be set off in case of armed conflict, etc. Presumably, the US & other allied governments have been doing the same to the PRC, or at least trying w/ all their might. However, the kind of active attack to disrupt operations & directly cause physical damage or financial loss is crossing over the grey zone into indisputable cyber warfare, the kind of activities hitherto mostly limited to Russia & NK.
Surely parts of the US 3 letter agencies have been chomping at the bits to strike back at the PRC, in light of the damaging & embarrassing intrusions by Volt Typhoon & Salt Typhoon just w/in the past 2 years. The US AI Big Tech firms (“Open”AI, Anthropic, Palantir, etc.) had touted themselves as the Crown Jewels in the Sino-US Great Power Competition, & have closely aligned themselves w/ USG, 1st in the Biden & now Trump Administrations. The Trump natsec team is just reckless enough to let them loose, damn the escalatory consequences.
& we are just over a week into the 2nd Trump term.
wjca
Given the level of chaos in the US government at the moment, major US AI providers seem rather more likely. Certainly they all have the technical capability.
Not to discount the possibility of some (relatively) low level government official taking the initiative on his own. Just that private enterprise seems more likely. Especially considering how swiftly action has been taken.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: US Big Tech carrying out unsanctioned cyber attacks against their commercial rivals is just as disturbing as the NSA doing it. & a really bad look everywhere since DeekSeek has made its product openly & freely available, much to the delight of open source communities around thr world. Also, not sure US Big Tech wants to face off against an actual great power, a near peer (if not an actual peer) of the US in terms of cyber warfare capabilities.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
What are the odds of something happening to those pipelines should the EU lose its collective mind & nerves & turn the taps back on? Pretty damn good I’m thinking.
In Euripedes’ Medea there’s an astonishing, powerful moment when the heroine, & make no mistake, she is the heroine, invokes Hekate the goddess of witchcraft, among many other things. I can imagine whole covens of Ukrainians doing the same for Baba Yaga.
Thank you Adam.
wjca
I suppose it depends on how big their egos are. That is, do they think they can successfully anonamize their attacks?
way2blue
@YY_Sima Qian: Would love to see such an investment in solar & wind and battery storage. When I drive through southern Germany, I see lots of solar panels on the roofs of barns, farmhouses… Anecdotal I know, but still the incentives already seem to be in place.
way2blue
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks again. For describing the response DeepSeek has provoked from competitors caught w/o a clue… Fun times.