Trump backed down from his 25% tariff on Mexico, for a month, supposedly, after speaking with Claudia Sheinbaum and getting her to promise to send 10,000 national guard members to the border. Claudia added that the US promised to “work to avoid the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.” This will be merchandized and propagandized by his state media outlets as another application of the art of the deal, but obviously tariffs on Mexican goods would be a stupid way to raise the price of produce almost immediately. Threaten something that’s a total lose/lose, get an apparent concession that is one that’s been given before (15,000 national guard in 2019) under much less duress, and tee it up for another dramatic moment next month — that’s the “strategy” here, and it’s stupid and damaging to relationships with our two best allies.
Robert Farley at LGM has a good piece that reviews Mexico’s odd status as a relatively wealthy country with a big population and a tiny army, all because they’re overshadowed by the US.
Justin Trudeau is going to talk with Trump this afternoon, but unlike Claudia Sheinbaum, who had “Plan B” ready to go but didn’t really go into details, the Canadians are all in. This piece from the CBC details all the different responses from the national government and the provincial governments.
What Trump wanted from Mexico was border security and repatriation, two things they were more-or-less doing, and that they don’t really have to bend the knee too much to provide. Trump wants to annex Canada. His 51st state rhetoric has clearly pissed the Canadians off, and since there’s really no concession for the Canadians to give (since the whole Fentanyl pretext was a lie), I wonder how Justin is going to play this. There’s also the politics of the Liberals getting a huge boost in the elections by being tough on Trump, and the Tories looking like idiots for embracing Trump.
Short-term, Canada holds a big card here that hasn’t been well-reported. Trump intentionally only put a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, and the reason is that Canada is the main supplier of the kind of oil that US refineries can refine, heavy oil. This piece is well worth a read on that topic: the bottom line is that we’re a huge oil producer and exporter, but our refineries can’t refine the oil that comes out of the ground here. We’re very reliant on Canadian oil.
That all said, Trump’s weak position on tariffs gives him a huge incentive to back down and make chicken shit look like chicken salad.
SpaceUnit
whatever.
Kelly
I read Mexico already has 15,000 troops at the border and may just leave it at that.
“Grandpa I can’t find your car keys, how about I drive you?”
Steve LaBonne
I’m guessing the Canadians are pursuing new customers for their oil as we speak. I’m sure the MAGAs are going to enjoy filling their humongous pickups with $5 gas.
Spanky
All this to overshadow the news that musk is stealing our pii and probably our earned benefits.
sentient ai from the future
i just eliminated entirely my sp500 index fund in favor of bond index funds, weighted heavy on international.
it’s the destabilization and volatility. we’re still the 800 lb gorilla but if we’re going to just NOT PAY FEDERAL CONTRACTORS BECAUSE JOVAN MUSK WANTS IT THAT WAY then a lot of bankers are going to reconsider holding too many US dollars as a reserve currency. this is exactly the sort of thing krugman is talking about this morning.
VIX is surprisingly low for being in the middle of an actual administrative coup, which supports krugman’s thesis that finance people are going to hold their eyes and plug their ears as long as possible.
WereBear
Thanks, mistermix, I always enjoy your posts.
Been deep in creative work to cope but I picked a fine time to check n.
Spanky
And I see that The Market has gone back to “whatevs”.
sentient ai from the future
@Steve LaBonne: it might very well also blow a hole in our own energy production too. if theres trade wars and other countries institute tariffs that would otherwise buy our crude because they have refining capacity, then we are double fucked and sitting on a lot of nothing.
kindness
Canadian oil is similar to Venezuala’s. It takes specialized refineries to crack. There are a few along the American Gulf (of Mexico) coast and up north by the Canadian border. Those refineries can’t be easily converted to crack lighter grades of crude oil. I’m sorry New England and northern NY will now pay more but Maine, New Hampshire and upstate NY voted for this. Welcome to the FA part of FOFA.
Steve LaBonne
@Spanky: The Mexico delay was the excuse they needed. For now.
Eolirin
There’s two things you can always count on from Trump; he will bluster and never be willing to be seen as backing down, and also he will be the world’s biggest coward.
Trivia Man
I enjoyed the pictures of Canadian liquor stores today – all booze from red stated is already removed. And a huge groundswell of voluntary USA boycotts.
sentient ai from the future
@Spanky: lie back and think of
Englandtax cutsmore seriously, even as it’s bouncing back most of the way each time, the trendline is down
Starfish (she/her)
I like Doug Ford threatening to rip up the Starlink contract.
JerseyBeard
This is what we get when the guy in charge is gobsmackingly stupid. He will do more stupid things. He will allow (be a victim of?) Elon’s stupid rampaging. But I guarantee the spigot of stupid is only just starting to flow. There will be way more stupid things happening in the immediate, and if we have one, distant future.
Thank goddess for legal weed.
Rusty
@kindness: New Hampshire is all blue at the Federal level and went for Harris. We are all red at the state level however, which just adds to the whole weirdness of this place.
bbleh
@sentient ai from the future: yup, which is why my finger is poised over the button but I haven’t yet pressed it. They’re still telling each other how he’ll be Good For Business, and they’ll keep it up for as long as they think other people will believe it. But as you observe, if it stays flat-at-best, ain’t no point in sticking around.
I suppose when the real downturn hits, he’ll invade Panama or something.
Kelly
Reports indicate Musk’s hacker squad is younger than 25. It’s be hilarious if all the federal Cobol code keeps them at bay. Probably some Assembler buried in there to. They think they’re Jeff Goldblum in Independence Day plugging his laptop into the alien spaceship. Oh really?
Quinerly
Very rambling Trump press conference about wanting the Panama Canal and the 51st state (Canada). Seems to be obsessed with Canada allowing American banks to do business in Canada. All the corruption in FBI and fraud/corruption in the USAID. Speaking as though Patel is already in charge of FBI. A lot of “I’m not involved in that.”
Lots of “protecting the rare earths.
100 million dollars in condoms sent to Hamas. Musk has uncovered that
Musk has the best of the best working with him.
BarcaChicago
Reposting, sorry to repeat:
This may have already been posted, but the most salient element of the Action Call last night to me was from Leah and Ezra at Indivisible: they described how Mitch McConnell sent out a memo to Republicans to use all of their tools to block and build opposition to the ACA, and that we need to do the same now:
Slow it down, build opposition. This is what we all need to be saying to our reps when we call EVERY DAY. Also, anything but calls is wasted effort according to staffers. Personally, I found the Zoom helpful and inspiring, particularly Randi Weingarten and the Indivisible folks.
Lily
@Starfish (she/her): me too.
Besides, E’s shown willingness to sabotage it for political clout.
Marc
At least some of these guys (and they are almost always white/Asian guys) are Thiel Fellows, they were recruited by Thiel to leave college and do internships at Thiel or Musk owned companies until they settle in at one.
JPL
@Kelly: Thank you. When Biden was president they had a large presence on the border, but I didn’t know how many? trump agreed to stopping the flow of weapons into Mexico. If that occurs, it’s a big win for Mexico.
Jay
Reposting from downstairs,
https://nitter.poast.org/kenklippenstein/status/1886464335985172764#m
For those who don’t know Ken, he used to work for VICE covering US Extremism and Indigenous Protests.
https://nitter.poast.org/calebecarma/status/1886427604984516806#m
https://nitter.poast.org/JenGriffinFNC/status/1886282588526149775#m
As always, Nitter is a mirror site you can use to see what is on the Dead Bird Site, Felon Musk’s personal cesspool, it does not give clicks or views to the Dead Bird Site, but, never read the comments, even though you can. Just too much ignorant angry shit to wade through for one or two pearls.
JPL
@Quinerly: He also wondered why he didn’t get coverage for releasing all that water in California. I wondered that also. A madman releases close to two billion gallons of water that flows into farmlands hundreds of miles away from the fires and wonders why he didn’t receive praise. Oh and Hamas is now getting 100 millions dollars for condoms. as you stated also. tomorrow it will be 200 million.
Jay
@JPL:
Dolt 47 can’t do a damned thing about stopping the flow of weapons to Mexico, and he knows that.
It’s just kayfabe.
Steve LaBonne
@JPL: He really is in Mad George III territory except George had minders who could prevent him from doing any damage.
John S.
@Steve LaBonne:
We already have nearly $5 gas in WA. If things go south, we’re probably looking at $7 gas in some places.
Quinerly
Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday ordering the US treasury and commerce departments to create a sovereign wealth fund and said it may also be used to purchase the social media platform TikTok.
Reuters reporting
Steve LaBonne
@Jay: President Sheinbaum also needs to be able to point to concessions however bogus.
bluefoot
I was thinking about the whole 51st state thing. I first heard it as a joke from a segment of people from NYC back in the early 80s. I wonder if somehow this got stuck in FFOTUS’s brain.
(As someone who grew up near the US-Canada border, it was pretty obvious to me that Canada had its own distinct identity and culture for all we share language and a certain amount of history. So besides being ridiculous on its face, the concept of even thinking about Canada as an extension of the US was completely non-sensical to me.)
Quinerly
@JPL: I caught the water remarks.
What else was he rambling about? I missed the very beginning.
I think he is going to invade Panama to take the canal.
trollhattan
@Quinerly: Heard overnight South Africa is taking Trump’s threats of cutting off aid seriously, with the counter-threat of cutting off our minerals from SA.
See who you think the source of the administration’s beef with SA might possibly be.
Matt McIrvin
As I said in the other thread, Trump clearly doesn’t understand Canadians. He’s poked at a deep foundational identity thing for them. Every Canadian has thought of the threat of the US invading and conquering Canada as an ever-present possibility even when anyone in the US would have treated it as a joke.
Belafon
@Spanky: There all separate components of the destruction of the US. You could argue that Musk is distracting us from the destruction of our relationship with our trading partners.
Jay
@Steve LaBonne:
And when the trade war starts up with Mexico again, because Mexico won’t rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America on their maps, she will have that as a point of epic fail to use.
Matt McIrvin
@Rusty: I was actually surprised that NH went for Harris, even though the last cycle in which they went for the Republican was 2000.
JPL
@Quinerly: He’s mad. I tuned in when he was establishing the Sovereign Wealth Fund amid great fanfare. That alone should lower the price of eggs.
ChrisSherbak
@Matt McIrvin: Gotta wonder if Trudeau suggesting that a couple states wanting to become new provinces would pierce his pea brain. Or offer Puerto Rico provincial status and (sweetening the pot) retain dual citizenship…
John S.
@Quinerly:
Wow. I didn’t see that one coming.
Sister Golden Bear
@Kelly: A very real danger is that, with root level access, Musk’s Elon Youth start randomly deleting bits of data, introducing random/targeted data changes (e.g. doubling the reported income levels of trans people and then sending the IRS after them for “tax fraud”), randomly changing Social Security numbers a by a digit, changing someone’s lifetime SSA earnings (like the people doxing his flying monkeys) to either reduce their benefits or even disqualify them from SS.
Even if this merely due to fucking up a system they don’t understand, once a certain amount of errors exist, then all of the data is suspect.
But don’t work they’ll recreate the data in the X Everything app that Musk is trying to create, which will be the official federal database.
May the Lords of Cobol protect us.
tobie
I’ve lived near Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) for several yaers. When the US is about to get involved in a conflict, you feel and hear the testing of all ordinance at APG. It has been non-stop testing this morning and afternoon. Literally non-stop. The ground jolts and the house shakes with each test.
Sister Golden Bear
@Marc: Also at least one of them is Canadian, so we’re letting a foreign national see sensitive, and potentially classified, government info.
But her emails….
Suzanne
@Matt McIrvin: It’s so fucken ludicrous. Antagonizing our nearest neighbors when we’ve had nothing but peace and good relations.
The other thing that drives me crazy….. this attitude that fentanyl is something Mexico imposes on us, rather than a plague we bring on ourselves via demand.
John S.
Little Marco just made himself the head of USAid.
I’m sure the 99 senators who voted to confirm him feel awesome about his commitment to uphold the Constitution.
Quinerly
I just can’t keep up.
Musk has now exposed Bill Kristol for receiving millions of dollars from USAID. Musk and his minons clearly don’t understand charitable giving.
https://www.techdirt.com/2025/02/03/the-twitter-files-playbook-comes-for-the-us-government/
JPL
@Suzanne: The one thing about the MAGA’s is that they have to blame someone.
Ruckus
@Steve LaBonne:
Likely more like $10 to 15/gal gas.
The harder, and or stupider one works to screw up the concept of a working country the worse the country will get. And the more people on the sidelines will be screwed over. And that is most of us in this country. People that hate trump and people that adore him (for whatever asinine reason) will be the one’s that pay the highest price, the highest percentage of their income and/or savings. And will be the ones that have to actually work to fix the entire
messdisaster, made because of one jackass who thinks he’s the highest level of human, who always gets this thought/concept 1000% backasswards.Thor Heyerdahl
Another reason why Trump hasn’t backed down from the Canadian trade war, is that so many of maga think Trudeau is weak (a “cuck” in maga parlance). To have Trump back down from Trudeau would harm their storyline as Trump being the manliest of men.
Ruckus
@JPL:
And it can’t be the person they see in the mirror, no matter how badly that person deserves the blame.
Lobo
@BarcaChicago: Call your senators to do the below:
Deny quorum
Block unanimous consent
Max out debate time
Blanket opposition to all nominees
Yes, Senators it is that easy.
Quinerly
@JPL:
Did he actually mention TikTok?
Matt McIrvin
I am honestly terrified that Trump is actually going to try to invade Canada, resulting in a US-NATO war… and that he’ll be able to mobilize 50.1% of the United States to be up for it on the theory that it’s easy peasy and manifest destiny
Note, the UK and France have nuclear weapons, though I think France’s aren’t under direct NATO control.
artem1s
@bbleh:
Surely there are some med students in Grenada that need rescuing?
Ruckus
@Thor Heyerdahl:
shitforbrains is the most manly of men?
Surely you jest. He barely qualifies as human. And I mean by the slimmest of margins.
JPL
@Quinerly: I did not hear the tik tok part but truthfully I was dumbfounded on what he was talking about. He’s hoping the fund will grow as large as Saudi Arabia though.
John S.
@Quinerly:
Yup.
Trump signs order to create sovereign wealth fund that could buy TikTok
Suzanne
@JPL: I commented about this yesterday….. I lurk in some right wing and social conservative comment sections, because I think it’s important to know one’s enemy. One thing I have noted…. I have seen multiple comments asserting that fentanyl is a terrible thing, inflicted by rich liberals on working-class white communities, specifically to humiliate them. Blaming liberals for their own drug use.
Yes, this is insane.
Dirk Reinecke
@trollhattan: Minister Mantashe is not someone who anyone should listen to.
In fact he is more like Trump than different from him. Especially when it comes to renewables.
He was also the Secretary General of the ANC when President Zuma robbed the country blind.
Belafon
@John S.: Wait. Socialism?
John S.
Marco Rubio appoints himself head of USAid
Matt McIrvin
@Thor Heyerdahl: Trudeau was in serious political trouble up to this moment–may still be, I guess, but he got this huge rally-round-the-flag moment.
tobie
@Suzanne: Kudos to you for lurking in rightwing forums. I don’t have the strength to do that. But I do think I should probably read Srinivasan’s “The Network State” since I’ve read it’s the playbook Musk is following.
tobie
@Matt McIrvin: That’s why I’m pretty alarmed with the non-stop testing of ordinance at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) today. We haven’t had uninterrupted tests like this since the invasion of Iraq. All ordinance that’s going to be used on the battlefield is tested at APG.
Jay
@Matt McIrvin:
Neither the Uk’s or France’s nuclear weapons are under NATO control.
Both Britain and France’s nuclear deterrent have the same cause.
They don’t trust that the US will respond if London and Paris are nuked by the So-be-it Union, now ruZZia.
And that reasoning goes back to the late 1940’s and has remained the same through out the decades.
Quinerly
I missed this. Musk suing companies for not advertising on Twitter/X.
“Musk first filed this suit last August against the World Federation of Advertisers and the companies Unilever, Mars, CVS Health, and Orsted. In an amended complaint filed Saturday, he added Nestle, Abbott Laboratories, Colgate-Palmolive Company, Lego, Pinterest, Tyson Foods, and Shell.”
Suit is alleging that it was illegal for these companies to have simultaneously pulled advertising dollars from Twitter/X.
https://reason.com/2025/02/03/no-elon-it-isnt-illegal-to-boycott-x/
Suzanne
@tobie: I feel like I need a Silkwood shower afterward. Those people are bent.
MazeDancer
Simon Rosenberg posted a video of the Dem presser. That the media did not carry.
tobie
@Suzanne: They really inhabit an alternative universe.
Leto
The Alt National Park Service group is a collection of current and former federal workers. They’ve been posting about everything happening, usually ahead of news outlets. Here’s more information. Yes, they’re on BlueSky.
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
Most addicts never blame themselves for their substance abuse. Because that would make them responsible.
Can’t have that!
Thor Heyerdahl
@Ruckus: their storyline, not mine.
Don’t piss us off Trump.
Dorothy A. Winsor
lowtechcyclist
@John S.:
He always makes me wonder how a normal-sized human being can get around without a spine.
Quinerly
@Leto:
Love them. They originally formed in 2017.
karen gail
@Kelly: Do you think they even know what COBOL is? At 25 they probably have never even seen a DOS machine, while I wouldn’t be surprised if there are still either tape or floppy systems somewhere in the mix. Since government isn’t known for getting rid of systems that they can still make work.
Belafon
@MazeDancer: Seems like something the front pagers need to put up, along with a “no media covered this” disclaimer.
Kelly
@Sister Golden Bear: They can create uncertainty. I was a mainframe programer for several Fortune 500 corps. Mostly COBOL, a few years of assembler. Never had a government job. Retired in 2002 and washed my hands of all that after some prosperous years working Y2K so I’m not at all up to date with current IT.
Almost certainly a lot of redundancy in federal data. If the Muskrats start tweaking things somebody will be able to fix it, if they let them. I’m not a lawyer but it seems like arbitrarily changing legal records is felony fraud. Oh well they’ll be pardoned
Belafon
@karen gail: They may or may not have played with it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GnuCOBOL
Jay
@tobie:
APG conducts regular “new product” testing and sample testing of certain production weapons. Their last test cycle was the week of Dec 20, 2024.
They are not a reliable indicator that the US is mobilizing.
National Guard Units being called up and large combined exercises are
Nobody tries to invade Canada in the winter, (freeze to death) or spring, (mosquitos and blackflies). Summer is probably out now, (forest fires), so that just leaves fall, but the moose and elk are in rut and bears are fattening up for winter, so,….
TBone
In honor of Claudia’s “sure, grandpa, you’re not wandering or lost, let’s get you back to the nursing home now” gambit, some Deguello
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=meIkfCRC9gs
Kelly
@karen gail: Maybe. COBOL had a brief moment of fame during the 2020 pandemic as government systems struggled to distribute emergency benefits.
MazeDancer
@Belafon: Certainly deserves wide coverage.
Geminid
@JPL: You mean that dumbass is still talking about the condoms-to-Gaza story? Middle East Eye got to tbe bottom of that one January 30. Their story is headlined:
They grow a lot of rice in Gaza Province. The capital is named Xai-Xai.
Hilbertsubspace
@tobie: Trump declared the cartels in Mexico a terrorist organization so that he could justify using the military against them. I’m expecting the purge/housecleaning of the military to start first, but it could be concurrent with strikes against cartels. Then it’s just a matter of going a step further each time he demands something. Panama, Greenland, ???, who knows. He needs the military to say, “We’ve already done what Trump has said so far, what’s one more crime?” Hopefully they reject the illegal orders at some point.
Thor Heyerdahl
@Matt McIrvin: Trudeau is stepping down as Liberal leader and a leadership campaign is underway.
There will be an election in the spring. The conservatives thought they would win a majority…and Poilievre is seeing that slip away to minority government status as Trump is messing with his divided Canada rhetoric.
Quinerly
@Quinerly:
I checked. 4 US banks do business in Canada…..Citibank, PNC Bank, J.P. Morgan & Co., and Comerica.
What’s up with Trump obsessing over no American banks in Canada? I have heard him on this kick now several times.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Dorothy A. Winsor: OTOH
Quinerly
@Geminid:
And he has now doubled the amt to 100 million.
Harrison Wesley
@Jay: The flow won’t stop, but the price will go up. He’s got to get his cut, after all.
Quinerly
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
That’s the argument the DOJ made in court today. Pretty bogus, imo.
Geminid
@Quinerly: That guy’s skipping without a rope.
karen gail
All we need is one cartoon, one comment that catches the attention of Trump; one that shows that Mexican President a WOMAN! out thought, out maneuvered, or got better deal and he will be all in for launching war against Mexico. The question then is will there be anyone willing or able to hold him back or will the idiots he surrounds himself with cheer him on?
tobie
@Jay: As
@Hilbertsubspace: points out, this is likely testing for weapons to be used against “Mexican drug cartels.” I can’t imagine Mexico won’t be mighty pissed about invasion of their sovereignty.
I’ve lived here long enough to know that when APG is testing ordinance this rapidly, a conflict is brewing. The regularly schedyled tests in December were nothing like this. The tests today have been so unrelenting that I’m a bit worried about their structural impact on my house.
TBone
@Leto: thanks for posting their heads ups!
Miss Bianca
@JPL: That “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting, there.
Miss Bianca
@Jay: Will the “ButbutbutHER EMAILS!!” crowd of pundits start writing lots of chin-stroking articles about this? Hmm…doubtful.
Jay
@Hilbertsubspace:
The Mexican Police and Army have had few “wins” against the Cartels and many losses. And the Mexican Army has this thing called “home field” advantage.
SOF “raids” against the Cartels will just result in a lot of dead Civilians, and of course, new unmarked mass graves in the desert filled with the bodies of US Combatants.
karen gail
Like Suzanne I keep a weather eye out on the right wing nuts; for me I don’t need to go forums I just check what part of family and former friends are saying on social media. They appear to have no clue that the US needs Canada more than Canada needs US; for those who are looking to rebuild or build this summer they have no clue that their local building supply chain outlet gets its lumber from Canada or that the some of power on their electrical grid is coming from across that border they eye as another state to be.
What is most amazing is the ability to believe that Trump squatting in Oval Office makes him the most powerful and respect man in the world. That by sitting in that chair he is now “the true leader of the free world.” The next often repeated lie is that somehow he is god chosen leader to take the US to new highest and once again make the US a christian nation. (It is hard to believe that so many “well educated” people can be such idiots.)
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Quinerly:
Are there any other kind?
Brian
Nitpicky from a guy who used to do oil and gas. Our refineries are over qualified to refine domestically produced oil. If you can handle the heavy stuff you can certainly handle the lighter sweeter stuff.
The better margins are to buy cheap crappy oil though.
They Call Me Blue
@Quinerly: Just imagine the depths of corruption in a Trump managed sovereign wealth fund. Boggles the mind.