If you want to see a big white guy with a beard explain whey MAGA has gone nuts post-Obama, here you go. I got this from Kottke who has a transcript on his site.
Extinction burst is actually really simple. It’s when you have a behavior and a reward, and you withdraw the reward in order to change the behavior. When you do that, usually to change an undesirable behavior, the behavior itself increases in frequency and intensity for a short period of time until ultimately the subject changes the behavior and then that behavior goes extinct.
This is like you’re at the store and you’re swiping your credit card, and it doesn’t work, and so then you swipe your credit card like 15 more times until you’re so angry you’re freaking out, and you’re about to scream an F-bomb in the middle of Toys R Us. And then you say, “I’ll just pay with cash”. Swiping is the behavior and the payment is the reward. So when the swiping doesn’t work and you don’t get the reward you need, you get madder and madder and you try it more and more until you change the behavior, which then results in the extinction of the original behavior.
In his metaphor, the original behavior (racism) was challenged by Obama’s election, and the burst has been Palin, Tea Party, birtherism and finally MAGA.
Speaking of extinction, how’s everyone feeling about filing their taxes? I pay estimated tax (self-employed), so I’m going to research paying all my 2025 tax year estimated tax on the last possible day (Jan 15, 2026). I mean, if Musk is going to withhold our tax money from us, isn’t turnabout fair play?
Steve LaBonne
I believe you will be penalized for not making quarterly installments. How much I can’t tell you off the top of my head. (I make quarterly estimated payments because it’s easier than getting Social Security to withhold.)
Baud
Was expecting Santa. Or Cole.
Old School
I usually get a refund, so I guess the quicker I file this year, the worse I make the government’s finances.
Quinerly
I left this in the dying thread.
Another insane press conference with Trump. I feel really sorry for the King of Jordan having to sit there with Trump.
Trump, “we will have Gaza. We don’t have to buy it. There is nothing there.”
“I have had a great career in real estate.”
“I won the Arab population of Michigan.”
I tuned in when Trump was rattling on that being a bully is a sign of weakness.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Oh my god
NeenerNeener
NATO is going to have to drop a bomb on DC and possibly Mar-a-Lago to get this idiocy to stop.
Jeffg166
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
Frank Wilhoit
Don’t pay your taxes if you don’t want to but you are not in the in group and will be held accountable.
sentient ai from the future
The penalty for not making quarterly installments is relatively small, iirc, like 2%-ish, but you would be wise to look that up and not trust what an internet ai tells you.
I’ve also been saying “extinction burst” about this shit for nearly a decade now, as any current or ex-LGMers can verify.
Behaviorism is cool!
Belafon
Extinction burst is what your kid does when you make them stop doing something that is wrong. And, like parents, we have to hold firm if we want to have the behavior change.
sentient ai from the future
@Belafon: it will only pass if they still don’t get their way though. If they get their reward, then the underlying strategy has been reinforced.
No Nym
RE: “Speaking of extinction, how’s everyone feeling about filing their taxes?”
I asked about this a few days ago and was told resistance was futile. Not filing early like I usually do, that’s for sure, even though I am likely to get a refund. I have no confidence in where all my info is going.
Eunicecycle
The way behaviors are extinguished is well-known in psychology. When training rats in a Skinner box you get them to do certain behaviors first then you try to extinguish the behavior. And yes at first they really push that lever (or whatever) like crazy until they realize it’s futile. I don’t remember it being called an extinction burst but I’ve been out of the field for 40 years.
Baud
@sentient ai from the future:
Exactly why 2016 and 2024 were so damaging, not to mention 2010.
Quinerly
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
It was pretty horrible.
Plus, he’s going to get the last of the hostages killed. (At least 2 Americans left). I don’t think he and Netanyahu care.
I was listening. Should have turned on TV to see the King’s expressions. I just can’t stand to look at Trump’s face. When I have time I want to listen to the presser again.
The King has agreed to take 2000 children from Gaza.
Kirk
@No Nym: On the other hand I filed as early as possible because I’m hoping to get through the process and get my money back before they get the strings cut.
Baud
@Quinerly:
They don’t care.
RevRick
@sentient ai from the future: There was a salesman in my first church who bundled his quarterly estimated tax vouchers and payment on January 15th. I don’t know if he escaped the penalties.
I always paid the 90% on my estimated tax, and made up the difference on April 15th. I was shocked the time the IRS mailed me a refund.
Ohio Mom
@sentient ai from the future: Behaviorism is a popular autism intervention. I remain skeptical about many aspects of this school of Pyschology. It can be useful but it has limitations. It’s no panacea.
How many decades are we going to wait for the Republican extinction burst to finish bursting? After a while, you have to change your paradigm if you are not seeing the results you had hoped for.
No Nym
@Quinerly: 100% with you on seeing and hearing the shitgibbon. I wish they would talk about him but not show his ugly face/ass.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Baud:
They could be the same person. Funny how we’ve never seen them photographed together.
suzanne
@Quinerly: Neither FFOTUS nor Bibi care a bit about those hostages. It’s horrifying. They’re dooming them to dying in excruciating fashion.
I will note that I predicted, some months ago, that Israel would seek to ethnically cleanse Gaza and take the territory for themselves. I was assured that that was a fringe thing, that their leadership and citizenry certainly didn’t want to do that. I am deeply saddened to see this.
A Ghost to Most
Forever fighting the wrong battle. Most people can’t overcome their programming.
Kosh III
We owe a small amount so we will mail our return and a check on the last day.
UncleEbeneezer
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Meanwhile Jill Stein’s campaign manager admits he’s happier to see Trump win because electing Harris would’ve been worse.
Kosh III
@suzanne: “that Israel would seek to ethnically cleanse”
In 1939 Ben-Gurion said they wanted to kick out all the Palestinians so the Jews had lebensraum.
RaflW
@Steve LaBonne: It is correct that there are some penalties for paying estimated tax late. But the costs aren’t that high (IIRC, it’s been a while since I’ve had that be an issue).
My partner is sometimes subject to a small amount of estimated tax. I think the past couple of years he ticked the ‘let the IRS calculate the penalty’ option and, overworked as they are and small potatoes, I think they just let it slide.
Spanky
@Quinerly:
What? In a poker game?
Jesu Christos.
Leto
Our CPA has gone full remote this year, so we have to upload all of our stuff to their site, then they’ll do it. We usually made a day out of it, found a nice British pub nearby last time that we were looking forward to visiting again. Alas, just Zoom this time and whatever I make.
tobie
I just saw that a diverse group of religious organizations has sued Homeland Security for ICE raids in houses of worship. The claim is that it violates religious freedom. The case that has been assigned to a Trump appointed judge so all bets are off on what happens but I love the language of religious freedom being used against this admin & this statement showing a unity of faiths just about made me cry.
Leto
@suzanne: Israeli leadership, and land developers, were talking about it at least a month after the war kicked off. Too many people went, “Nah, they don’t really mean it.”
Whelp.
Belafon
@sentient ai from the future: Running to daddy after mom tells you no.
Belafon
@Ohio Mom: As others are pointing out, our problem is that EVERYONE opposed to those behaviors has to act like the responsible parent until they change. It’s a pain, and so many things cause it to fail.
Belafon
@A Ghost to Most: So we kill our kids and start over when they don’t act right?
RaflW
@tobie: I’m heartened by this as well. Unitarian Universalist leaders are already pushing news of this out via their channels, here’s the UU World Magazine coverage.
The timing seems accidental, but the Pope writing to all US Bishops, and (lovingly) slapping convert JD Vance around makes an excellent two-part news hook for journalists. Hint, f’ing hint, MSM.
eclare
@RaflW:
Given the hiring freeze and TCFG’s plan to have IRS agents target undocumented immigrants, I would not voluntarily pay any penalty. Paying interest I’m about 50/50 yes or no.
I am a CPA who worked in tax at Arthur Andersen for seven years. It’s been a long time since I did individual returns other than my own, but back then we never calculated either.
Chief Oshkosh
I’m supposed to pay quarterly. I did one year. Then I figured out that I come out ahead if that money was put into investments. Basically the ROI is more than the penalty…so far
tam1MI
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Oh my god
But.. but.. but… GENOCIDE JOE!!! [/sarcasm]
SMH…
tobie
@RaflW: Nice announcement! Thanks for sharing. In an age of division, it was moving to see some unity among faiths. I wish the list were longer, and maybe more groups will sign on, but it’s a start and I’m happy to celebrate this beginning
ETA: I was wondering where the Catholic Church is on all this. Catholic Charities of America was hit by freeze at USAID. Good to know the Pope has written the US Conference of Bishops. Love the stranger or get out of the church!
Spanky
@RaflW: “Mennonites up in arms” wasn’t on my 2025 bingo card, to be honest.
eclare
@Leto:
I don’t see how anyone paying attention to Bibi could say that he didn’t mean it with a straight face.
Trollhattan
@Spanky: Nerf Army, deploy
Memo to staff: dancing still not allowed.
Jeffg166
Today I started to look into solar panels. Not to save money or the planet but to have access to electricity if everything goes down.
I have had brief power outages here periodically throughout the years of living here, nothing major, except once. Usually it is just long enough that all the digital clocks have to be reset.
sentient ai from the future
@Belafon: the behaviorist framework also, at least for me, helps avoid pre-excusing bad behavior based on my imputation or speculation of an internal narrative in the source of bad behavior.
that’s important, because it’s precisely what enablers do, privilege their imputation of internal reasons/reasoning for an abuser’s action over the fact of that bad action.
when there is a conflict between words and behavior, believe the behavior.
Eunicecycle
@Spanky: a little off topic, but there’s a high school near me that are the “Fighting Quakers.”
ArchTeryx
@tam1MI: Go ask Kay about that one.
Belafon
This also ties back into something the Tea Party and MAGA have done to Republicans that we have failed. They used the stick in the primaries and then their reward came on November for whatever Republican was elected. When they cost Republicans seats doing that, the party moved in their direction.
NeenerNeener
@Jeffg166: Look into battery storage as well. Just the panels alone won’t help if the power goes out; they cut off the feed to the electrical grid to prevent toasting the folks trying to restore the regular power.
Belafon
@ArchTeryx: Yeah, there’s a whole prior thread on that one.
CliosFanBoy
Tax Wise: BAD IDEA>
Jeffg166
@NeenerNeener:
I did include battery storage in my quote.
ArchTeryx
@Belafon: A prior thread about what? The discussion about Genocide Joe, or the fact we got a “both sides are the same” commenter? I’m not at all in a patient mood when it comes to that. I consider the lot of them on the enemies’ side.
Pied them long ago. I’ve never heard one single good faith argument about Gaza from the entire so-called pro-Palestinian lot, and that one was no exception.
RaflW
@Eunicecycle: Pius XI Catholic High School has the locally-famous in Milwaukee “Lady Popes” sports teams.
Which raises theological questions for me that a long line of Dude Popes seem to rigidly not want to answer.
Kelly
@NeenerNeener: @Jeffg166: I know several people with propane backup generators and an automatic grid cut off switch that protects the linemen. Probably also available for solar+battery installations
frog
@Jeffg166: In California, if you don’t have your panels feed batteries, your panels feed the grid and all the power you burn come from the grid.
zhena gogolia
@ArchTeryx: I know what you mean.
suzanne
@Leto: Yeah, it was not a difficult prediction to make!
Belafon
@ArchTeryx: Two or so threads ago, we did the rounds again.
Ksmiami
We will not pay quarterly and will deal w penalty at end of yr. I call it being a conscientious objector.
Marc
Adding battery storage alone will not solve that problem. You’ll still need a more expensive inverter that can cut off the grid connection. Here in California, anyway, backup power capability nearly doubles the cost of the entire installation. And, don’t get me started on why in 2025 there are still no standards (or much availability) for inverters capable of using an EV for home (or grid) storage. Lots of talk, but unless you happen to buy a specific EV for which a V2H/G charger/inverter (not just a power out plug) is actually available, you are out of luck. And, if you want to buy a different EV in the future, expect to buy another expensive V2H charger/inverter.
Belafon
@Jeffg166: I might have to look into for my next house.
NeenerNeener
@Jeffg166: Cool beans.
Old Man Shadow
“Not great, Bob.”
Frankly, I kind of wish the Californian government would start collecting the Federal taxes into an escrow account to be paid to Washington when Washington stops fucking over the Constitution.
Sure Lurkalot
@RaflW: Same Pope who told American Catholics that there was no difference between Trump and Harris (both evil) and to choose the lesser evil? I guess he missed Trump demonizing refugees and asylum seekers for the last decade. Almost 60% of white Catholics picked Trump as the lesser evil.
To whom does a Pope mea culpa?
Geminid
@Eunicecycle: Nathanial Greene, George Washington’s most capable subordinate, was a fighting Quaker. Greene made his name in the last phase of the war when he ran the British out of the Carolinas. My Virginia County was named after Nathaniel Greene
During the Civil War there was a Union cavalry unit raised among the Quaker population of Loudoun County, in Northern Virginia. They were fighting Quakers.
sixthdoctor
(deleted, not real, sorry, for reference link was https://bsky.app/profile/serialciara.bsky.social/post/3lhw35q7eyc25 )
Kelly
Open Thread pet note: 8 month old border collie Daisy came up with scratching her crate door as her “Please let me outside” signal when she’s loose in the house. Previously her “I need to go outside” signal was sudden restlessness. That was a bit subtle. The last few days Daisy’s wants in and out just because she’s bored. Well worth getting up to be her doorman given she’s flawless about potty outside.
Belafon
@Geminid: I won a Daughters of the American Revolution award based on an essay I wrote about him back in the 80s (I beat out my teacher’s favorite student). We had a fancy lunch at their building. It was the first time I had hot tea, and neither me, nor the other kid from a different school that got to go, liked it. And that is all I remember of Nathaniel Greene.
Geminid
@Leto: The Israeli army lost 400 KIA and thousands more wounded fighting Hamas and its allies in the Gaza,l Strip, and they never occupied more that 20% of the Gaza Strip at any one time. This a practical priblem they’ll face if the government in fact tries to expel Palestinians, and it’s one of many. I’m not saying they won’t try, but I doubt it.
The annexationists think they have Trump on their side. But the Saudis are adamant that there will be no population transfer, and they probably swing as much weight with Trump as the Israeli Prime Minister, who Trump knows is politically weak at home.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Belafon: We will continue to fail on that one because the Democrats are very mu h divided between moderate and progressive factions
ArchTeryx
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: It’s more like it’s divided between Democrats and people that call themselves the Left.
The rank and file base Democratic voters and party people (i.e. black folks and other minorities) long ago figured out that being moderate was better than outright fascism. The Left never figured that out and continue to be as willfully ignorant as the MAGAts, as the recent Kay thread demonstrates.
And here we are.
Starfish (she/her)
@RaflW:
We actually had someone in a local UU church to avoid deportation during the last administration. She was a local mother who did not want to be deported away from her young children. There was a pre-school on the campus of the church, and there were people trying to make the parents afraid of someone living at the church and how the church could house anyone. This ultimately led to the preschool shutting down. It was so frustrating.
Here is a story from our Representative’s website from the perspective of the person who stayed in the church.
Jeffg166
@Kelly:
My cousin had a gas generator put into her place after a number of blackout in her neighborhood. When they had a major outage that lasted for a few days the neighbors came over to recharge their devices.
Martin
I’ve been making that argument here since 2012 or so. Obama was evidence the US culture was changing and they won’t have it.
I’m wondering how California (and a few other state) universities are going to handle the legal conflict between the NCAA trans student ruling and their own state laws. I can tell you that the UC policy makers are almost certainly of the view to dump the NCAA (because they’ve always been of that view) and need to be talked out of it by administrators, but this might leave the administrators with no hand to play (which has always been money). UC policymakers are likely of the view they can dump the NCAA systemwide, replace it with a different governing body (CA already has it’s own for the 108 community college system that it could simply promote to handle all 3 systems) and then try and sell the other blue states to join it who are facing the same dilemma, with the hope they can build enough support to garner at least enough interest to replace some of the lost broadcast revenue. But it would basically zero out a lot of revenue streams. The disintegration of the Pac-12 shows how strong that pull toward money is, but if they’re caught in a vice between state and federal law, they may have no choice. They’ve had successes before though – they required that students be able to be paid for NIL and won that one. We’ll see.
Geminid
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I do not see this division; at least not when I look at the 215 Democrats in the House, who I think are a good representation of Democratic voters. “Ideologically,” House Democrats are not bipolar, but rather fit into a fat bell curve.
A lot of Progressive Caucus and New Democrat Caucus members are indistinguishable in terms of policy.; they just label themselves differently. But there are a half dozen or so Democrats on the margins of either side and they get attention beyond their numbers.
Ksmiami
@RaflW: the gist is if you’re earning enough to pay quarterly, the penalty just ain’t that much.
VFX Lurker
I have an appointment with my CPA this Saturday. Like Kirk upthread, I also had hoped to file my federal tax return before the Idiot broke everything. However, I did not anticipate unelected Space Idiot wrecking the Treasury.
I hope I get my federal refund in a timely manner.
Martin
@ArchTeryx: I think that’s a misread.
The left have been arguing that being moderate is simply a slower path to fascism. It’s not like Trump created these corporations that both funded and are immediately implementing his policy agenda – they were invited in by the moderates. Right now you have this debate within the Democratic Party about how to identify the good billionaires from the bad ones, which is only proving the point. Bill Gates ain’t doing shit to stop Musk.
Moderates sell out labor for capital all the time. Labor is always force against fascism. Always. It’s in the fucking poem.
Sure Lurkalot
@Geminid: Trump playing eleventy dimension chess with Bibi and the Saudis, yeah?
This is just a real estate deal for the finest, most successful developer ever born.
Think a better explanation for his ideas and actions is that he’s a bug fuck sociopath?
Matt McIrvin
@ArchTeryx: There really is not a lot of daylight between Bernie Sanders and, say, Abigail Spanberger right now. I do think some Democrats took too long to wise up during the confirmation fights–they were clever to lead with Rubio.
Baud
@Martin:
The parts of labor that fight fascism are excellent fighters of fascism.
A lot of labor is fascist and make up the GOP base. Maybe they shouldn’t be labeled labor, but aside from their commitment to fascism, they are in all respects labor.
Kelly
@Martin:The disintegration of the Pac-12 completely soured me on college sports. Ducks had one of their best footballs seasons ever and I didn’t watch a single game. I’ll ignore March Madness no matter who plays.
FDRLincoln
The DOJ grant that my local law enforcement agency uses to teach officers de-escalation tactics was shut off and cancelled this morning.
A friend whose job is funded by a DOE grant for special ed was told the money will be shut off tomorrow.
Blatant violation of court orders. The judges need to issue bench warrants now.
prostratedragon
@Eunicecycle: Oh, I hadn’t thought about Psycho for years! Our originally rather docile rat did not take extinction one single, er, bit in stride. Wasn’t any more good the rest of the term. I felt kind of sorry for him, though not as sorry as for the chimp in the film who got the wire mother.
Ol' Nat
Kottke has gone all-in with resistance. It’s awesome!
Kay
@ArchTeryx:
You should go.lecture them about how Biden’s Gaza policy was no big deal.
That’s all Democrats did. Sent Bill Clinton out to wag his finger at them and tell them how great he is.
gene108
As long as there are billionaires willing to fund things like the TEA party, Mom’s for Liberty, Chris Rufo, etc. it will take ages to reach the extinction burst for racism, homophobia. etc., if that’s even possible.
On the other hand, we don’t have governors blocking the entrance to a high school to prevent black students from attending, so I guess that’s sort of an extinction burst for a certain level of public displays racism.
Kelly
@Jeffg166: We recently started thinking about solar+battery but can’t do anything until next year. Somewhat glum about the prospect of the tax credits surviving that long.
Citizen Alan
@Baud: In Who Goes Nazi?, one of the Nazis was, in fact, a labor organizer who saw his role as a way to profit off the working class for whom he cared nothing.
Kay
Arab Americans and/or Muslims don’t have a political party. Neither party treats them as fully American. I imagine they’ve figured that out by now.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
I would add 2000 to that. Each those elections was an opportunity for us – as a nation & as a culture – to move forward, to embrace the inevitable future. Each time white people said no, move backwards. And each time they want to move further backwards. It is this cyclical ordeal like Sisyphus, more than anything, that makes me melancholy.
Belafon
@Baud: See farmers.
Baud
@Citizen Alan:
Aside from maybe the Teamsters and police and fire unions, just about every labor leader I’m aware of knows what’s what when it comes which party should win. The rank and file is a different story.
Baud
@Melancholy Jaques:
Yes, we should include that one. A good economy and a budget surplus, and the country just threw it all away for nothing.
Melancholy Jaques
@Martin:
I think that’s a misread. Moderates make accommodations to capital because they have to if they want any changes at all. And despite the beliefs of the TrueLeft® very few Americans want to get rid of our consumer capitalist economy. They aren’t being duped, they like it.
Kay
Elissa Slotkin, who is Jewish and a moderate, won Michigan. She advocates on behalf of Arab Americans in the state, like one would do with any other group of voters. She’s regularly called out anti Muslim bigotry and she maintained a close dialogue with that group in Michigan.
RevRick
@tam1MI: William Saletan, over at the Bulwark, argues that Trump is flat out delusional. He makes this claim based on a Fox News interview with Bret Baier where Trump literally fumes over the question of the 2020 election and heatedly insists that it was rigged. And the way he responds to questions about Canada and tariffs, Musk’s claims about USAID, and how the Palestinians will respond to being asked to voluntarily cede Gaza indicates that Trump has descended into a narcissism so deep that he cannot distinguish his wishes from reality.
Jeffro
I dunno but this ‘burst’ sure is taking a loooong time to burst
Kay
I helped some with Slotkin”s campaign. She did deliberate outreach to Arab Americans, both when she was in the House and running for Senate.
Cory Booker also deliberately maintains ties with those voters – they’re important in NJ.
The fastest growing Muslim population in the country is in Pennsylvania. Democrats should talk to Slotkin and Booker and get some pointers.
billcinsd
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: and the powers that be always blame the left most group possible
Booger
@Jeffg166: Hey, would you mind reporting back? we’re in the same boat.
TIA
Emily B.
I’m thinking that I will file a paper return this year. I don’t trust Musk not to f*** up online filing, I want a paper trail, and—although I know it will be blameless IRS employees who have to deal with the hassle of paper—why do anything to make government processes more frictionless at this point?
Booger
@Geminid: I did not know that about Greene County! How’s your snow down there ATM?
raven
@Geminid: There is one in Georgia as well.
Geminid
@Sure Lurkalot: I don’t think Trump is any kind of chess. His National Security Advisor tried to spin this plan as a gambit designed to induce Arab countries to come up with their own plan for Gaza, but they already have. That was last Wedneday, the day aftrr Trump’s news conference with Netanyahu.
That same day Trump’s press secretary emphasized that no U.S. troops would deploy to Gaza, and that American taxpayers would not pay to rebuild Gaza. I think that was in part a response to the blowback from Republicans of the “America First” faction.
There are two problems though. One is Trump’s vanity. This plan– if it can be called a plan– could become a prestige project for him.
The other problem is Netanyahu’s desparation. He stalled the ceasefire as long as he could because he feared it would begin the unraveling of his coalition. That started when the ceasefire began and 6 MKs bolted.
Now Netanyahu sees an opportunity to monkey wrench the whole deal. He has no practical strategy to replace it, but he’s trying to survive day to day and week to week. That’s his strategy
.So these next few days will be very critical. That ceasfire, or at least its first phase, was on track and on schedule until Trump opened his big mouth. Now it’s hanging in the balance.
Sure Lurkalot
Regarding income taxes, I tax plan as best I can to have a small net owing as opposed to a refund. When I worked, that meant playing with number of exemptions declared to get the withholding right. As a retiree, I make estimated payments, not always equal if things change so I have been assessed small penalties.
That said, I am anticipating a refund this year, first one in a while. Bad timing.
I never understood why some people use the Treasury for their savings plan. A billionaire malcontent in control of the Treasury is a good reason to try to jigger your withholding and estimated payments to avoid a large refund. Even if you’re a spendthrift, better spent on your hookers and blow than his.
MomSense
@Quinerly:
Queen Rania is Palestinian, from
Kuwait. If Trump destabilizes Jordan with this Gaza madness we are well and truly fucked.
Belafon
@Jeffro: The keep getting the keys handed back to them after driving into the ditch.
PJ
@Martin: You are identifying “the left” with “labor”. They are definitely not the same in this country – just look at the Teamsters (https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/teamsters-will-not-endorse-us-president/index.html)
dnfree
Regarding the taxes, you will absolutely be penalized if you don’t withhold. It’s a complicated calculation, one year we had under-withheld (we are retired), and there was no penalty for the first year that we had to pay more than was withheld, but the next year we absolutely had to withhold MORE than our total taxes the previous year or there would have been a penalty if we had under-withheld and had to pay. I’m not sure that’s the actual calculation but that’s the idea of it. If you don’t do your own taxes, ask your tax preparer how it works. We didn’t get a penalty the first year we under-withheld because we had gotten a refund the previous year.
There used to even be a penalty if you didn’t withhold more or less evenly, so doing the whole thing at the end didn’t work either, as I recall, but that might have changed. In any case–check before doing anything rash.
Geminid
@Booger: The snow’s been coming down since 10 this morning. I’d say we’ve got 5 inches so far, which is somewhat alarming considering it’s supposed keep falling through the night. I’ll be in good shape though, at least as long as the power doesn’t go out.
Belafon
@Emily B.: You’ll have a paper trail until it enters the postal service or the IRS building.
kindness
@Kay: Oh please. Do not suggest the Biden Administration was equally bad as the Trump Administration wrt treatment of the Palestinians. That is what you are saying Palestinian Americans are saying, right?
dnfree
@Emily B.:
We use a tax preparer and file electronically through his office. There’s still a paper trail of what he filed. If you file on paper, processing will be delayed, I believe, so if you’re expecting a refund it may not come as quickly.
MomSense
If I have to see that rotting melon’s face I’m going to be petty about his appearance. His skin literally looks like the outside of the spaghetti squash I put in my compost a month ago. What do you suppose that color is called? Rotting flesh? And it looks to me like he has replaced the banana swirl comb cyclone with a white toupee. He hasn’t had a part in decades.
Jeffro
so true
“America, we’d love to help you and keep making progress here…but you keep giving the Arson Party back its matches and gasoline” – sincerely, the Democratic Firefighters of America
Trollhattan
@Sure Lurkalot:
Our filings–federal and state–have been fucked sideways since Trump 1.0’s tax bill. A combination of their gaming the withholding tables to cosplay a bigger paycheck and their SALT ceilings aimed at fucking California and New York. Mission accomplished.
We once finagled modest returns from both and now instead have to send a check to each every year.
“Donald Trump hates you” is accurate for probably 80% of Americans. A real headscratcher 40% don’t understand that.
Jeffro
@Geminid: that’s amazing. we’ve had like maaaybe 3 inches so far (probably slightly less) here just south of Cville
TONYG
“Extinction burst”. This is the first time that I’ve heard that phrase but, yeah, that’s what people do. During my “career”, one of the things that they paid me to do was to monitor and (try to) improve the performance of computer systems. When something would get screwed up and cause performance to be terrible, we’d see the users trying to execute the same requests for data over and over again, thereby causing performance to get even worse. After a while we’d temporarily stop all new requests (at which point the users would REALLY freak out) until things settled down. The users didn’t know exactly where we were, so they never showed up with torches and pitch forks. (One time I had a conversation with an employee who worked for a different department in he organization, and he had no idea that there were people “working” with the computer systems. As far as he was concerned, the processed started and stopped with the PC on his desk.)
prostratedragon
@Kelly: From the B1G, I understand. Nothing per se against any of the expansion schools, starting with Penn State, but dammit it’s not supposed to be just another cash flow stream.
Kay
@kindness:
You cannot do this comparison with these people. You can not tell them 55k dead civilians is “better” than something else. Do you understand how offensive that is? We LEVELED Gaza under Joe Biden. Stop demanding they support him. Its an outrageous ask and one Democrats would make of NO other group other than THIS group.
What is the comparison? Leveled their city and killed 55k versus Trump’s relocation plan? That’s your argument? You don’t see how offensive that is? How it minimizes and dismisses what happened there and turns it into Red v Blue?
dnfree
@No Nym:
If you have normal person taxes, all your information is with the IRS even before you file. Your bank sends the same information about interest you were paid, etc., to the IRS; your employer sends the information about how much you made and had withheld to the IRS; and the IRS just double-checks that your tax form agrees with what they already know. The Social Security Administration tells the IRS how much social security we got.
For most of us, the IRS could just do our taxes for us.
Princess
@Geminid: The problem of expelling Palestinians exists if you want Palestinians to stay alive. If you don’t care if they live or die, and if you want the whole region flattened and bulldozed anyway, and if you have aircraft carriers and bombers, then the problem vanishes.
Obvs I am not advocating this horrific “solution” but I’d be shocked if it weren’t on the table, given the people involved.
Jeffg166
@Booger:
I will. I am only starting this. I know nothing about it. It may come to nothing. I am having a gut feeling I should look into it.
Sure Lurkalot
@Trollhattan: I retired right before Trump 1.0…probably easier to get close to net zero refund/payment with quarterly estimated payments than withholding.
But I still think it’s better to owe a small amount than having to worry this year whether my living in a blue state or voting Dem jeopardizes my refund.
Captain C
@Belafon: This is why for IRS and state tax checks I always get confirmation of delivery. It costs a little extra, but my peace of mind is worth it.
Kay
@kindness:
Perhaps let Slotkin and Booker teach Democrats how to talk to these people. And do it before Fetterman is up again. He’ll need it.
I imagine they’ll swing towards D’s again, but no political party in the US really represents them well. Both “other” them and periodically bomb the shit out of them and kill a lot of them.
Think of them as swing voters. No one abandons them when they swing Right. Why would we abandon this group?
Geminid
@MomSense: There was an interesting photo taken a week or so before Trump’s inauguration, of Melania Trump having lunch with Jordan’s Queen Rania. Evidently Mrs. Trump made a visit. The picture was widely circulated on Middle Eastern media sites.
I thought of that photo when I read Trump and wife would host the Netanyahus for dinner last Tuesday night. I don’t think think Melania’s personal preferences affect her husband’s Middle East policies, but I wish she did. There’s a big difference between Queen Rania and Lady MacBibi.
I though
Kay
@Princess:
Just FYI, it is flattened and bulldozed. Already.
Trollhattan
@Kay: “We” doing the heavy lifting in your proposal.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Geminid:
Greene’s been described more as a “lapsed Quaker” by more modern histories although perhaps that’s the same thing as a “fighting Quaker”. I’m pretty sure (w/o delving into my library too much) that he never resumed any religious association with the Quaker’s after the Revolution.
He’s a fascinating person who had a mild limp, noticeable enough that when he showed up in Boston with the RI militia unit that went there, he was a private because despite being the brightest of that lot, nobody was gonna vote an officership to a cripple.
He was most noted early in the war for his disastrous decisions in the 1776 campaigns around NYC. I actually visited Ft Lee on the Jersey side last fall.
His letters home during the Southern Campaign reveal a man always riven with doubt. But he learned from his mistakes and listened to great leaders like Daniel Morgan.
FYI, my gr-gr-gr-gr grandfather fought under Greene in the Southern Campaign having gone south with Gates in 1780 and survived the defeat at Camden. He was the drummer for the 7th MD, all of 16 at the time. When they reorganized what was left of the army after Camden, he became the drum major for the reorganized 1st MD Continentals and was in every battle thereafter except Cowpens. The kid spent 6+ years in the Continental army, having enlisted at the age of 13 along with his father. The foundation of his eventual house can still be seen (barely) in Charles Town WV.
Trollhattan
@Sure Lurkalot:
Understand the sentiment and honestly, when passbook savings paid say 5% and CDs more, there was a legit reason to hold the money and earn something rather than let the feds and state hold it for bupkis, like a free loan to them.
Gravenstone
@Quinerly: Just another casus belli in Netanyahu’s mind. Trump couldn’t care less one way or the other.
Sure Lurkalot
@MomSense:
You go, girl! Don’t forget Stephanie said he’s got a little mushroom for a dick.
I will add that Elon is one homely fucker and no amount of money or advances in plastic surgery could make him look the way he wishes he did.
Many people think that a lack of parental love caused their sociopathic behavior when maybe it was just a mirror. There are men more attractive and better endowed and the mirrors don’t lie.
MomSense
@Geminid:
Queen Rania is an impressive woman. Brilliant and beautiful. I went to school with a member of the family. My friend dated her briefly. I felt bad for her. It was pretty tough for her to blend in given she had security, a limo, etc.
Quinerly
Presser with Musk (and kid) and Trump in Oval Office.
Didn’t realize Musk is a stutterer. He’s doing all the talking.
Trump started it out alluding that judges need to be investigated. That they are blocking his and Musk’s efforts to cut fraud and waste.
Musk continuing to do all the talking. MSNBC cut away to fact check him. Musk has been talking at least 15 mins. Trump watching Musk talk while Trump sitting at the Resolute desk.
Kay
@Trollhattan:
Oh, we did it. Could not have done it without us. The least we can do is admit that.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Quinerly:
Like a lot of people here, I’m amazed that any of you have it in you to actually watch and listen to those klowns live much less any recorded bits that are foisted on us endeavoring to never see or hear them.
PJ
@Kay:
Israel could have done it all without us. They had a massive stockpile of weapons, and have their own defense industry, and can buy weapons on the open market.
I agree that we should have stopped sending arms and money to Israel a long time ago, but doing that in 2024 would not have prevented the Israelis from destroying Gaza.
Quinerly
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
I have been a news junkie my entire life, like my parents before me. Had MSNBC on my Klipsch stereo speakers this AM while getting ready to leave
Came home to this strange Musk presser in the Oval.
Kay
@PJ:
That’s not what I’ve read and I’ve read quite a bit. Do you have a link?
Its just after they started starving them we STILL sent weapons? They’re trapped and starving and we’re dropping 70,000 tons of bombs on them? Its a stain. We’ll wear it.
TONYG
@Sure Lurkalot: To paraphrase Frank Zappa — the ugliest part of Elon’s body is his mind.
Peale
@Quinerly: They have never cared about the hostages. Seriously. Hamas might as well have never taken them for what they have gotten out of them.
Anyway
@Geminid: Meh. Grifter meets grifter. Major, minor Arab princes, rich sons made it a point to hook up with or marry genteel English and American women. Not impressed by royalty, esp the Arab kind.
Melania got with a rich businessman—it’s similar.
Geminid
@Princess: So do you think the U.S. is going to bomb Gaza? There has been a lot of fighting between Israel and its Arab neighbors since 1948, including three major wars. The U.S. has yet to drop one bomb in any of it.
Now Trump is saying we aren’t going to take Gaza, that Israel’s going to give it to us. But like I noted above, Israel lost 400 KIA and thousands more wounded fighting in Gaza, and they never controlled more than 20% of the Strip at any one time. They could go back in and fight all year and they still wouldn’t pacify that place.
Except they can’t fight all year because their Army is exhausted and the civilians are fed up. Netanyahu might not even have majority support within his own coalition to restart the war. We’ll find for out more before too long because this is a real crisis for the Israel public.
One of many unknowns: what will Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff tell Netanyahu? Witkoff’s the one who wrangled Netanyahu into agreeing to the ceasefire lsst month, on Trump’s orders. That was because Trump decided months ago that he wanted the war ended by the he took office, not because of the interests of the Israelis or the Palestinians but because of his own political interests. Now that ceasefire could blow up and the war resume, worse than before amd with no end in sight.
schrodingers_cat
Trump increased his margins among most demographics, especially white people. What extinction burst? They are expanding.
Peale
I know this is bad. But boy, I’m sure more than a few GOP judges who have to hear these cases kind of wish that they hadn’t followed the lead of the ethics panel that governs the Supremes.
Oh….NOW taking gifts is going to be “illegal” somehow.
Still, they don’t have the votes to impeach anyone.
I’ve also read somewhere without much confirmation that Musk sent out a memo that he is going to close 100 federal courthouses. Probably to make the older judges who don’t want to figure out new commutes after 40 years retire so Trump can appoint more.
NobodySpecial
I’m sorry, that article about “extinction burst” is nonsense.
Yeah, they eventually for that purchase with cash. Then what happens? They go elsewhere and use that card where it works. Then they come back a while later, and use the card again, and maybe it works, and maybe it doesn’t, but it doesn’t stop them from using the card. There is never an extinction burst, because there is always a case where their behavior is rewarded.
Obama getting elected caused a reaction, and this reaction has been rewarded. It will never end.
Geminid
@Anyway: A lot of Americans are prejudiced against Arabs and like to see them and their leaders as inferior people. They’re not.
Anyway, this isn’t about your feelings; none of this is. I was talking about someone else’s, someone who might have influence on this matter although like I said, they probably don’t have much if any.
catclub
@RaflW:
/p>
I think there are LOTS of buts. I think enough estimated tax in by Jan 15 is good enough (Not official tax advice!).How much is enough? At least 90% of last years’ taxes OR enough so you don’t owe any on April 15th.
I can imagine a person who gets 90% of their income in December not wanting to pay estimated taxes in september.
RaflW
@Starfish (she/her): Interesting! Through my UU lay work and social networks, I have met the minister that was called to Boulder in 2021, but didn’t know this story from a bit earlier in the congregation’s history. Thanks.
Lumpy
@NobodySpecial: I also don’t get this “extinction burst” concept or see how it applies to our current politics. It seems to me that it’s a way to pretend that we (Democrats, liberals, whatever) are actually winning even though it appears on the surface that we have been getting our asses kicked.
No, we are not actually winning, no matter how someone spins it.
Dennis Doubleday
@sentient ai from the future: It’s actually an 8% penalty for the underpaid amount in 2024, not 2%. There isn’t any sure way to outperform that with investments.
different-church-lady
MAGAs are angry because THEY FUCKIN’ LOVE BEING ANGRY. It doesn’t go any deeper than that.
HopefullyNotcassandra
@Steve LaBonne:
You will be penalized. You will also owe interest compounding for each unpaid day. If your payments are less this year than last, you will only owe interest and penalties on what you paid last year.