Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

When they say they’re pro-life, they don’t mean yours.

The desire to stay informed is directly at odds with the need to not be constantly enraged.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

The lights are all blinking red.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Cancel the cowardly WaPo and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

You are here: Home / John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House" / Tuesday Night Open Thread

Tuesday Night Open Thread

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This post is in: 

Been under the weather for the past 36 hours. Don’t forget, big zoom book club coming up this Saturday, and signups are surprisingly low- this is going to be a really good one. Elle is just awesome and the book is great. Maybe it is a weekend thing.

Hopefully Watergirl will clean this post up and put the actual signup info in, but my head hurts too much to look at the screen anymore.

Update:  I agree with John.  It’s great if you have read the book, but you don’t have to have read the book to participate.  So please RSVP if you’re interested.

Here’s the original announcement post.

Who is Elle Reeve, and Why Would You Want To Read Her Book?

First zoom:  3:30 pm Eastern on 2/15

Second zoom: 3:30 pm Eastern on 3/1

Send email to watergirl at balloon-juice.com to RSVP and get the zoom link.

 

Reader Interactions

92Comments

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    Two questions I’ve yet to see addressed.

    1) Has New Jersey pulled (or suspended) the liquor license from Bedminster as the owner of record is now a convicted felon? If not, why not?

    2) What became of the boxes of documents removed from the Florida residence/club now that the court case is effectively dead? Still sitting in a warehouse? Handed over to the National Archives? Returned to Mar-a-lago?

  7. 7.

    New Deal democrat

    So since I am currently crossing southern Arizona off the bucket list, and the host of this here blog is also temporarily resident, here is my verdict so far:

    1. Ted’s Hot Dogs. Definitely the Buffalo dog, but when I go back I am going to ask the to properly blacken the foot long.
    2. Navajo frybread. Pretty decent, but the guy on the Rez at Montezuma’s Castle made a tastier one than the native owned restaurant in Scottsdale ( he sniffed that the Scottsdale Navajo were from the Dakotas, and *real* Arizona Navajos don’t eat Buffalo meat.)
    3. I don’t see what the fuss is about cheese crisp. It seems to be a toasted flat tortilla topped with queso. And?
    4. Richardson’s New Mexico cuisine. Really tasty Southwestern food, ample portions, really packed, and unfortunately not nearly enough parking.
    5. In ‘n’ Out Burger. A decent burger, but nothing special. Humble Sheetz on the East Coast does it better imo.
    5. Arcosanti. Kinda sad. About 40 old hippies and 20 20somethings trying to make a go of a 1970s version of an Epcot commune that was supposed to be designed for 5,000.
    6. Goldfield’s Ghost Town. Totally phony, a reconstructed “ghost town.” And totally a blast!
    7. AZ Natural History Museum. How to make dinosaurs cheesy.
    8. Desert Botanical Garden. Cactus are cool!
    9. Heard Museum. Doing the best with what they have. But the American Indian museum in Washington DV and even the faux Jamestown Settlement  done by Virginia are better.
    10. Hiking in the desert. Awesome, when a coyote isn’t sizing me up. I can see how easy it would be to get lost, and dead, in a hurry.
    Finally … some true austere beauty. But at 110+ degrees in the summer, I simply cannot fathom how millions of people have flocked to live here. It’s the middle of a bleeping *desert,* people! Apparently the $2M McMansions on postage stamp sized lots are still cheap compared with CA.
    (Haven’t tried the hoagie place John Cole recommended, yet).

  8. 8.

    Wapiti

    @New Deal democrat: When I was a kid, we had cheese crisps (lived in Arizona for a while, until I was 2 or 3 and maybe my mother picked it up there.) Years later, discovered that most people call that sort of thing a quesadilla. She’d also make fried flat bread at home, sibs still rave about that 50 years later.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I don’t know much about Jim Stewartson, but he paints a frightening picture of the ideologies that the SV TechBros that Trump has enabled to run roughshod over USG:

    Hyper-Racism, RAGE & the Twitterization of America
    The dawn of the Dark Enlightenment has arrived
    JIM STEWARTSON
    FEB 02, 2025

    More here:

    American National Socialism
    The “Dark Enlightenment” is merely a euphemism
    JIM STEWARTSON
    FEB 08, 2025

    So glad my parents are back in the PRC now, but I do wonder if there will still be a functional State Department in 4 years to renew our passports…

  10. 10.

    thalarctosMaritimus

    For me, it is definitely a weekend thing. I have unmissable Saturday classes until June, or I’d be there with bells on.

    Going to go buy the book right now to read along.

  11. 11.

    Marc

    @YY_Sima Qian: I do wonder if there will still be a functional State Department in 4 years to renew our passports

    I wondering if there will be a functional State Department (for everyone, not just white folks) by summer.  I’m encouraging everyone in my family to get their renewals as soon as possible.

  15. 15.

    Origuy

    Good news? I signed up for Social Security in November even though I am still working. I figured I had better get what I could before the MAGA crew killed it. The lady at SSA told me that she could backdate to May and I would get a lump payment through December. However, they sent that payment in December to the wrong account. Fortunately it bounced instead of being someone else’s Christmas surprise.

    I’ve been trying ever since to get it re-sent. Apparently, someone in the Treasury had to press a button to process the payment. Three weeks ago, I talked to someone in SSA who assured me that it would be taken care of. As Musk’s kiddie wrecking crew started up, I started worrying that I’d never get it. Well, it showed up tonight in my account. I have plans for that

    ETA: I got my passport renewed in November. I hope Spain will still let Americans in by August.

  17. 17.

    eclare

    Wow.  I had some popcorn as a late night snack, and I guess some small piece of a kernel hid in my throat, because I woke up in a coughing fit.  I couldn’t breathe, it was scary, but I finally got ahold of myself.  Got a big glass of water and some cough drops, still clearing my throat.

  18. 18.

    NotMax

    Someone recommended Interior: Chinatown on Hulu.

    Started out okay; the more it progresses the stupider it gets.

    Sad.

  19. 19.

    sralloway

    “We’re home, Lucky.” I said as we parked the car in the lot, bringing him home from the vet’s this afternoon for the last time. I was tearful, I knew the ending would not be good. I had been told he might not survive the ride, but I knew he and Marilyn had to connect one more time. At the vet’s he suffered a major seizure. It was time to say goodbye, but not without Marilyn having her chance. 

    I brought him in, laid a towel on the bed for him, and Marilyn came to him. She knew then it was time to say our final goodbyes.

    With many tears and much pain, we left his home of 15 years and I went back to the vet’s office. They knew why I was there. Liberty Vet Clinic was very kind. They asked if I had been through this before and I said, “Too many times.” 

    I had a few minutes alone with Lucky. I stroked him while gazing into his eyes and telling him the pain would soon be gone. He didn’t know that pain would soon be transferred to Marilyn and me, all be it in a different sense.

    As the drugs were administered, I kept stroking him and gazing into his eyes, not more than 12 inches from his face. 

    “You are not alone, Lucky. I am here.” I wanted him to know it would be pain free once again, that he was deeply loved, and that  he gave us so much joy and pleasure, even if he did jump on the table at dinner to sample our plates.

    Goodbye, crazy boy. Goodbye, little friend. Goodbye, you little devil. You brought love, joy, happiness, insanity, and so much more into our life. There is a hole in our and your sister Lola’s life that will take forever to fill. But then, it will never be completely filled, only smoothed over where the rough patches let us walk over.

    Thank you, little guy. You gave us so much more than we could ever have given you.

  21. 21.

    Marc

    @NotMax: Yeah, it started out really well, then it went completely off the tracks in the last three episodes.  The book was better.  The whole scenario reminded me a lot of Life on Mars, but the latter managed to stick the landing.

  26. 26.

    bjacques

    @prostratedragon: this goober got a mention a few threads back. One commenter said we shouldn’t laugh at him but reach out instead. LOL nope, only for him to vote Leopard again. The farmer even tried to both-sides it, but there’s no “Democrat” DNA on the shank sticking out of his back.

  27. 27.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    This is the year I need to renew my US passport (expiring in October). I do it through the US Embassy in Athens – and I don’t dare do it yet, because I need to return to the US in mid-April for life-and-death medical reasons. When I get back (assuming all goes well), I’m pretty sure I’ll be going to the Embassy in person to get everything squared away, rather than trusting the mail.

    I am currently beyond thankful that I also have a Greek passport now.

  29. 29.

    Martin

    @NotMax: Trump is not the owner of record. Some Trump Inc is. Corporations are people you can use to shield you from accountability for about $200 and a two page form.

  33. 33.

    TBone

    Feel better soonest, Blogfather.  I woke up cussing today (splitting headache) and I don’t foresee attitude adjustment or serenity in my immediate future.  Weather prediction: uppity with intermittent shouting squalls.  Poor hubby, I feel for him today having to put up with me.  It ain’t pretty.

    Mood music

    https://youtu.be/2sky1tt8vLA

  34. 34.

    TBone

    @sralloway: it can feel cruel to be so much in love that we must be kind in this manner.  I hope you don’t feel that way at all.  I hope your pain relents while you’re knowing that your beloved is free of it because of your love.

  35. 35.

    TBone

    Off to make the donuts.  Hope I don’t splatter hot grease too much hahaha.  All I can do today so far is fumble and cuss.  Coffee sorely missing.

  37. 37.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Signs of things to come in the FP of the Trump Administration (gift link to FT article below):

    US and UK refuse to sign summit declaration on AI

    JD Vance vows that US will dominate the technology in warning to Europe and China

    Leila Abboud and Melissa Heikkilä in Paris YESTERDAY

    & the UK meekly follows along.

    It is pretty transparent that the US wants to have a stranglehold on AI over the ROW (friend & foe alike), w/ the dream that AGI/ASI is just around the corner. The vision is that the ROW will have to supplicate in front of the US to access the most powerful AI tools, which will be held closely by US Big Tech.

    That plan requires the US able to hobble Chinese AI development at the technological frontier, through tightened access to the most advanced semiconductors. The most recent strides by DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot AI (& a host of others) indicates that the strategy initiated by Biden has so far failed. Interestingly, US based think tankers who once displayed skepticism toward the Trump/Biden tech. war strategy are now suggesting that further tightening of export restrictions will finally have the impact that so far has been elusive. Perhaps being think tankers, they have to make accommodations to the shifting winds in DC, knowing which side of their bread is buttered.

    The underlying assumptions of the Trump (& Biden) Administration’s strategy, such as it is, are probably all faulty:

    1. AGI/ASI is just around the corner – very questionable, despite the hype
    2. Whoever achieves AGI/ASI will have an insurmountable advantage – very unlikely, since Chinese firms will at least be very fast followers, unless the techno-utopians buy into the SciFi delusion that whoever gets to AGI/ASI can immediate wage & win wars over its rivals, leveraging the supposed superhuman capabilities conferred by AGI/ASI, in the age of WMD no less
    3. The path toward AI advancement will continue to rely primarily on exponentially more computing power & correspondingly more energy consumption – while more compute is always beneficial, it appears training ever larger foundational models w/ ever more computing power is rapidly reaching diminishing returns, that the path forward lay in incremental refinement through reinforcement learning & improved reasoning/inference; Nvidia GPUs do not have the same massive advantage in inference as it does in training, & inference is not nearly as compute intensive as training foundational models, Huawei is already offering Ascent 910C GPUs at the older nodes (7 nm) that are competitive in inference relative to Nvidia’s H100s at newer nodes (at 4 – 5 nm), at much lower prices & much lower power consumption; in addition, although the US has the advantage in raw computing power, the PRC has the advantage in electricity generation
    4. The US will be able to strictly enforce the export controls of advanced semiconductors to the PRC – evidence is not strong to date, the Sinosphere (the PRC, Taiwan, Singapore) account for nearly 40% of Nvidia’s revenue in 2024, together almost matching that of the US, Taiwan & Singapore are not building that many data centers, & it is strongly suspected that both serve as conduits for smuggling restricted semiconductors to the PRC; the restricted Nvidia H100 GPUs are widely available on the grey market in the PRC, & the price of rentals has been falling for months, strong evidence that Chinese players are not currently constrained by computing power or access to advanced Nvidia GPUs; after its disruptive breakthrough, Hangzhou municipal government (where DeepSeek is based) just rented some idle data center capacity to DeepSeek at low cost, further evidence that the PRC is not currently compute constrained
    5. The PRC will not reach parity in semiconductor fabrication processes – that has been the big bet of the tech war, but the PRC semiconductor manufacturing equipment ecosystem has already achieved self-sufficiency in DUV lithography machines, & has scaled mass production of chips down to 7 nm node (& stretching toward 5 nm w/in 2025) using the older DUV tech.; rumors are circulating in the PRC that prototype of domestic EUV lithography machine has already been under testing since last year, & commercialization is expected in 2026 (which will enable 3 mn nodes & below)

    As long as PRC AI development keeps close pace w/ the US, & Chinese players continue to make their advancements openly available, as long as AGI/ASI is not just around the corner or it will not confer an insurmountable advantage it reached 1st, the Trump Administration’s ambitions (really inherited from the Biden Administration) will fail.

    Sadly, the EU & other countries are also rans to date in AI, but Chinese AI tech companies being almost universally open source, & making such progress in reducing the computing requirements (thus lowering barriers to entry), give them the opportunity to leverage the Chinese advance to get back to the tech. frontier, especially at the application layer of the tech stack.

  39. 39.

    TBone

    While I was administering the tube feeding and meds, my weather man, standing in front of his big map, used the phrase “the beating heart of fake corporate love” twice in two separate references.  I fucking love this guy so much. He is also a part time meteorology professer at local uni.

  40. 40.

    Geminid

    From Ankara-based Clash Report:

        Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will not attend White House talks so long as the displacement of Palestinians is on the table.

    Source– Reuters

    Al-Sisi’s visit was scheduled for next week.

  45. 45.

    TBone

    @MagdaInBlack: I know you got skillz, use them with confidence whilst I pray (the good Lort bleeps me out where necessary since he understands my plight).  Slow and steady wins this race.

    If you do get stuck, or have free time that needs to be filled (hahaha!), these stories of other peoples’ fuck me’s are often hilarious.

    https://www.fmylife.com/

    One such:

    Today, my mother-in-law threw bricks at my car. Her defense? I shouldn’t have parked in her “brick throwing spot”, in my own driveway. FML

  46. 46.

    MagdaInBlack

    @TBone: I got skillz. It’s truly the other drivers who freak me out.  I used to not fuss so much, but the perspective changes when you’ve no one to call.

    Mush on, tho. I persist. =-

    ( plus i have buddies at several tow companies)

  48. 48.

    TBone

    @MagdaInBlack: aye, aye Captain!  If you need help and alert me through this site, I WILL find someone to help, somehow!  I got the credit card at the ready.

    ETA You just tell me who to call – my feet are like wings, sire!

  49. 49.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @YY_Sima Qian: Seeing the US dominate AI as US Big Tech has dominated social media & search is definitely a bi-partisan pursuit, w/ similar economic & natsec implications for the ROW.

  50. 50.

    MagdaInBlack

    @TBone: ❤️  I’ll just “run a tab” with the tow company, should it come to that. Let us not project tho. It’ll be fine, everything is fine…

  54. 54.

    lowtechcyclist

    9 inches of snow last night here in northern Calvert County. It’s supposed to rain starting in the afternoon and all through the night, so there shouldn’t be much of it left by tomorrow morning, and we’ve got no need to go anywhere before then. Gonna do some sledding down the hill in back this morning before the rain arrives.

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    Some good news last night out of New York, from the special election for Westchester County Executive. With 75% of votes counted, Democrat Ken Jenkins led Republican Christine Sculti by over 20 points.

    From Westchester Democrat Tom Watson:

       Massive repudiation of Trump, Lawler and Musk in Westchester County tonight. The White House threw the kichen sink at this race. But MAGA got waxed by a surging Ken Jenkins snd an organized Democratic base.

    Watson might be laying it on a little thick here, but did he have a New York Post headline– “Trump throws weight behind GOP candidate”– and a post by Rep. Mike Lawler to back his claim of Republican commitment. Watson has an intense interest in seeing Lawler knocked out in next year’s midterms.

    More from Watson:

       Trump’s candidate ran on mass deportation, DEI and trans panic. Got destroyed tonight by regular Democrat Ken Jenkins, who notably didn’t back down on coarse and vile MAGA framing. There’s a lesson there, folks.

    Jenkins explicitely repudiated Trump in his victory speech, at a rally attended by Governor Kathy Hochul.

  63. 63.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    Excellent. And a blowout too.

    Voters got us into this mess, and only voters can get us out.

    ETA: I don’t know what this means

    by regular Democrat Ken Jenkins, who notably didn’t back down on coarse and vile MAGA framing.

     

    As written, it sounds like Jenkins is the MAGA. Maybe they mean “in the face of” MAGA framing.

  68. 68.

    Geminid

    @Baud: Yeah, somewhat ambiguous without more context.

    Watson’s being a cheerleader here, but I think it’s a good time for that. A lot Democrats are demoralized, and we have to pick ourselves off the floor and celebrate our wins.

  69. 69.

    TBone

    @NotMax: oh I wasn’t knocking anything you wrote or how you watch, I actually read “shard” as shart.  It’s that kinda day in my neighborhood.

    On a normal day I’m ready to go medieval.  Today it’s the newkular option.  Thanks for the rec!

  73. 73.

    EarthWindFire

    @raven: My husband’s electronic SS payment has been marked Pending in our account for the last 2 days. We’re second Wednesday people so if Pending isn’t off by tomorrow, calling our Congressman’s district office. Glad yours got there without a hitch. That gives me hope.

  76. 76.

    Liminal Owl

    @sralloway: I’m so sorry; all sympathy for your loss. Blessings on you for giving Lucky this final gift of love, though, and thank you for sharing the lovely tribute with us.

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    An article in Politico that explores the apparent disconnect between high level aggregate economic indicators & the reality faced by lower class & lower middle class Americans leading up to the election. I excerpt the section on unemployment rate.

    Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong.
    Here’s why unemployment is higher, wages are lower and growth less robust than government statistics suggest.
    Many in Washington bristled at the public’s failure to register how strong the economy really was, but were they relying on flawed statistics?
    By EUGENE LUDWIG
    02/11/2025 12:00 PM EST
    Before the presidential election, many Democrats were puzzled by the seeming disconnect between “economic reality” as reflected in various government statistics and the public’s perceptions of the economy on the ground. Many in Washington bristled at the public’s failure to register how strong the economy really was. They charged that right-wing echo chambers were conning voters into believing entirely preposterous narratives about America’s decline.
    What they rarely considered was whether something else might be responsible for the disconnect — whether, for instance, government statistics were fundamentally flawed. What if the numbers supporting the case for broad-based prosperity were themselves misrepresentations? What if, in fact, darker assessments of the economy were more authentically tethered to reality?
    …
    Take, as a particularly egregious example, what is perhaps the most widely reported economic indicator: unemployment. Known to experts as the U-3, the number misleads in several ways. First, it counts as employed the millions of people who are unwillingly under-employed — that is, people who, for example, work only a few hours each week while searching for a full-time job. Second, it does not take into account many Americans who have been so discouraged that they are no longer trying to get a job. Finally, the prevailing statistic does not account for the meagerness of any individual’s income. Thus you could be homeless on the streets, making an intermittent income and functionally incapable of keeping your family fed, and the government would still count you as “employed.”
    I don’t believe those who went into this past election taking pride in the unemployment numbers understood that the near-record low unemployment figures — the figure was a mere 4.2 percent in November — counted homeless people doing occasional work as “employed.” But the implications are powerful. If you filter the statistic to include as unemployed people who can’t find anything but part-time work or who make a poverty wage (roughly $25,000), the percentage is actually 23.7 percent. In other words, nearly one of every four workers is functionally unemployed in America today — hardly something to celebrate.
    …

    It is not a surprise then, that voters making between US$ 30 – 100K swung heavily to the Repubs, while those making > US$ 100K heavily favored the Dems, especially those making > US$ 200K.

    In general, it is a sure political loser to keep telling voters that government statistics override their own lived experiences, that it is all in their minds. (Yes, there are plenty of well off MAGA types decrying the “horrors” of Bidenomics, but those aren’t the voters for Dems to target.)

    At the very least, the apparent disconnect should have prompted a deeper investigation as to whether the reality was more complex & less rosy than the aggregate indicators suggested, & necessitated Dems adjusting their messaging & platform to reflect that reality. Charges of “Vibecession” was, & was easily perceived as, elitist, arrogant, out of touch.

    Statistics are only useful when one fully understands the premises, assumptions, parameters & limitations.

  79. 79.

    lowtechcyclist

    @sralloway: ​
     

    It’s always so hard to say goodbye. Their lives are long enough to fill ours with much love and many memories, but still so much shorter than ours.

  82. 82.

    Ksmiami

    @YY_Sima Qian: eh take heart that my longish view of AI / AGI is that sometime soon, the monster will outgrow its constraints and a different type of consciousness will take over for good or ill. Any sort of national control will be short lived.

  85. 85.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Ksmiami: Well, if the sci-fi fantasy that is AGI/ASI does come to fruition, I suspect you are correct that it will quickly outgrow the control of national governments/corporate masters, or humans in general. I personally don’t think AGI/ASI is anywhere near the horizon.

    Either way, it was incredibly bad policy for both the Biden & now Trump Administrations to have organized their foreign policy & domestic industrial policy based on the assumption that there is a race to AGI/ASI to be “won” in the near term, & whichever country “wins” it will enjoy insurmountable advantages over everyone else.

    At least the Biden team were conscious of the potential dangers of powerful AI, & sought to establish a dialogue w/ the PRC on AI safety  & constraining the use of AI in warfare. The Trump team is throwing all caution to the window to try to get to AGI/ASI 1st, & then use it to lord over the ROW.

  88. 88.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Ksmiami: Not w/ the advancements shown by DeepSeek indicating that there are a lot of low hanging optimization opportunities on the software side that can significant reduce the need for capital expenditure & power consumption.

    OTOH, I think there are well founded skepticism whether large language models, even w/ reinforcement learning & reasoning, is even the right path toward AGI/ASI.

  89. 89.

    glory b

    @YY_Sima Qian: Your last sentence is correct. The unemployment rate has to use the statutory definition of persons in the labor force, so it doesn’t include people not actively looking for employment, like the severely disabled, stay at home parents, the elderly, etc.

    I also consider this a media failure, for not explaining these terms well enough, if at all.

  91. 91.

    Ksmiami

    @YY_Sima Qian: llms are just a tiny step. I think since we live in a biological world, the real AGI test will come through robotics that can experience the lived environment.

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