Some of us are itching to do something constructive. Key special elections are coming up. I’d like to start a list of strategic elections where we can possibly make a difference this year.
Wisconsin holds their elections in April every year, and this year there’s another Supreme Court seat in play. We won the majority with the election of Janet Protasiewicz, but a Democratic justice is retiring, so the majority is up for grabs again. (Yes, I know that SC races are technically non-partisan.) Do we want to go back to gerrymandering in Wisconsin? Hell no!
There are special elections for two House seats coming up in Florida. They are log-shots, but in this year all bets are off. With the House being so close, I think Dems would be crazy to not to go all-out to try to win them. I know several people in real life whose work is impacted in significant ways by all the evil of this administration, and I suspect that by April pretty much every person will either be directly impacted or know someone close to them that have.
There’s also a special election in New York to replace Elise Stefanik that we need to go for.
Here’s a nice little TikTok video for more information – and inspiration – about why it’s worth fighting for the House seats.
While we’re researching for groups we could support in their efforts for these races in FL and NY, we’re gonna start with Wis*Dems. That’s about the only state party I would feel comfortable supporting – they have a track record and they know how to win. I think sending $ directly to the NY ad FL candidates is probably not a great use of resources, hence the search for groups that are organizing. If you know of any in FL or NY, please chime in!
Also, is anyone interested in postcard threads? One of the groups we support suggested that this year we all need to up our game and move out of our comfort zones. If you wrote a few postcards, write more. If you wrote a bunch, consider other actions – if you don’t want to knock on doors, consider making phone calls to find other volunteers. It’s hard to think about doing more when it sometimes feels like we’re in the middle of the ocean without a life jacket, but if we want to make it to shore. that’s what we need to do.
Baud
Those would be seismic wins if we can pull it off.
WaterGirl
@Baud: All I know is that for sure we can’t win if we don’t get in the game. A long-shot opportunity is still an opportunity.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
With you, we’re always in the game.
Ksmiami
I don’t see any way forward with the GOP in power. They will break everything.
hells littlest angel
@Baud: If Enrique Fucking Tarrio runs in one of those races, does that better or worsen a Democrat’s chances?
Trivia Man
@WaterGirl: I ran for congress as a nuisance candidate… it COULD have been a miracle. No regrets, I promised myself “he will NOT run unopposed again, even if i have to run myself.”
hells littlest angel
Words to live by.
Baud
@hells littlest angel:
Don’t know. It’s Florida.
WaterGirl
@Trivia Man: Long-shot candidates do occasionally win! Really proud to be on the same team as you – no R should ever run unopposed.
hells littlest angel
@Baud: Yes, and a part of Florida that elected Matt Gaetz. So criminality doesn’t seem to be a bar.
UncleEbeneezer
You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take – Wayne Gretzky
Shalimar
@hells littlest angel: Tarrio lives in Miami. The part of Florida that elected Gaetz is the western half of the Panhandle. We have a chance in the former. No Democrat is ever winning in Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach.
Soapdish
While we should field candidates for every race, there is literally zero chance of taking Stefanik’s seat.
Shalimar
@Soapdish: I don’t remember the exact numbers, but my memory is that Stefanik’s seat is a smaller Republican advantage than the 2 Florida seats.
RaflW
@Trivia Man: A friendquaintance of mine ran against an entrenched US House R in downstate Illinois in 2018. I donated a couple times because I could see that he was getting some local press and pushing the other candidate to at least have to respond and maybe pay some shred of attention to his district.
Nuisance? Gadfly!
Yutsano
@Soapdish: Why do you say that
EDIT: if a +21 state Senate seat in Iowa flipped, it stands to say that there are more opportunities out there. But the Democrats will get none if they’re not tried for.
Baud
The thing about the war on Canada that’s confusing to me is that I always thought white Republican voters in the border states had good feelings about Canada.
sab
@Baud: Good feelings but misguided feelings. They think white Brit Canadians want to be us. They don’t.
Shalimar
@Baud: That was back when we were happy they gave us Mike Myers, before we realized he tells the same handful of jokes over and over and over with very small variations.
Spanky
Mrs. Spanky is listening in to the van Hollen/Alsobrooks town hall. Sem. Van Hollen has called it a”constitutional crisis” right out of the gate, setting the tone.
I will NOT be live blogging this thing, but it started out encouragingly. Hopefully more will come out later.
Percysowner
I’ve been giving money to all 3 of the Dems in the Representative races. I know there is almost no chance of winning them, but I still keep trying. Also, in for $25 for Wisconsin.
Kristine
I wrote postcards for the WI race over the weekend. I should ask for some more.
sab
@Soapdish: Demoralizes voters biggly if they go to the polls and there is no one to vote for.
Of course that means some Democrat not on a big rich guy payroll has to tank their future career to spend two years running for an office they won’t win. Democrats slink home and regroup. Republicans jump onto the oligarch bandwagon and get paid lots.
sixthdoctor
Listening to a town hall sponsored by my Maryland senators:
https://www.vanhollen.senate.gov/live
They’re opening it up for questions now.
Lyrebird
@Shalimar: @sab: @Baud: The NY district that Stefanik is (thank heaven) leaving does go up to Canada, but to very-white French Canada, and I think voters must be more focused on hating scary brown people downstate than anything else.
There’s definitely more chance of electing a Dem in that district than in Gaetz’ old district, but it broke my heart already that even with a decent number of Ukranian-American voters in the region, Stefanik didn’t get sent packing already.
sentient ai from the future
@hells littlest angel: in that context, their chance of getting elected doesnt matter, someone needs to run just to produce attack ads connecting him to the shitbird that can then be used nationally
Hoodie
@Baud: This is all coming from Trump because the MAGAts didn’t even think about Canada before he brought this up. They mostly thought of it as a nice place full of white folks where they can take the RV.
He has fantasies of spheres of influence where he, Vlad and Xi divvy up the planet. Trump gets North America, Vlad gets Europe and Xi gets Asia (Elon gets Mars). Trump probably also has designs on South America but hasn’t got around to it or will leave that to Prince Barron. It’s all very 19th century.
There’s a reason he has that hideous gilded NYC apartment. He thinks he’s royalty. Now that he’s elected, he doesn’t give a shit what his supporters think or rather, he thinks his supporters will force down any shit he feeds them because they long to bask in his reflected glory.
sentient ai from the future
@Shalimar: still need to run someone
H.E.Wolf
Proud to be on Kristine’s team! I’m writing postcards for the WI race, too. If anyone would like to join in:
PostcardsToVoters.org is the website. [email protected] is the sign-up.
Minimum is 4 postcards, with 3 required sentences provided (they’re short and sweet for this campaign, hooray!).
3 business days in which to write them. If you ask for addresses on a Thursday – you get until Monday to mail them out!
I find it very Zen. It calms the worst of my worries for the duration of the time I write, because I’m doing one small, concrete action… and I use the time to send some good vibes out into the universe. Can’t hurt, might help. :)
Gotta run. May check back in a couple of hours. Thank you to WaterGirl for getting us focused on special elections of all sorts!
Trivia Man
@sab: exactly. I was the lowest tier democrat on the ballot in my county. Mayor, county board, assembly, state senate… all unopposed. A new voter might just assume there was only one party.
FelonyGovt
Hubby is watching the hockey Four Nations competition, taking place now in Montreal, and the crowd ROUNDLY booed the captain of the US team.
Geminid
@Lyrebird: Democrats in NY21 have already selected their candidate for the special election. It’s 48 year-old dairy farmer Blake Gendeben.
The Saranac Lake-based Adirondack Explorer says Gendeben manages a 500 cow dairy farm and coaches basketball on the side. Gendeben told the Explorer that he’d been interested in running for public office someday, but was waiting for his three kids to make it out of high school first. But when this opportunity arose his youngest son told him, “Go for it. It’s ok if you miss a couple track meets this spring.”
Evidently, New York allows district party committees to select candidates for special elections. The Explorer said the Republicans had yet to select theirs from a “crowded field.”
The article also said the 21st District is home to 6,000 farms. That seems like a lot, but it’s a very large district geographically.
Heidi Mom
@Hoodie: If he continues to cower behind the Resolute desk like he did in that interview with Musk and son, there won’t be any reflected glory for them to bask in.
NotMax
FYI.
Military jet crashes into San Diego Bay.
Baud
@Geminid:
Always nice to hear about Democratic farmers.
NotMax
@Heidi Mom
At least they haven’t tried to replicate the picture of JFK’s son peeking out from the open door of the footwell beneath that desk.
Yet.
WaterGirl
@Geminid:
That can only help us since they just trashed the farm bill. There will likely be a lot of faces in that area that were unexpectedly eaten by leopards.
Sister Golden Bear
@NotMax: Broken link, but here’s a local TV station’s account. Fortunately the crew survived and were rescued by a charter fishing boat.
Funny how I don’t remember all these plane crashes during the DEI Era™. /s
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Sister Golden Bear: That’s because they are Manly now and had to show the Pacific Ocean who has the bigger balls.
NotMax
@Sister Golden Bear
Thank you. Fixed link.
NotMax
@Enhanced Voting Techniques
Soon to be called the West America Ocean?
//
Mousebumples
@H.E.Wolf: thanks for giving the rundown.
I’m on the data team now for my local county party, so I spent last night deciphering handwriting and adding new people to the email list (and list of volunteers).
Postcards are on my to do list, but I’ve been focused on figuring out this new gig in the short term. But I’d love postcard writing nights! 🤩
We have a primary in Wisconsin for State Superintendent next week Tuesday. I wonder if the postcarding script will update to encourage a vote for the more liberal candidate who emerges. (female incumbent, male liberalish challenger – who seems more complainy vs action-oriented to me, and an “independent” female challenger who is friendly with charter school advocates) We’ll see!
BlueGuitarist
Context: In Iowa a couple of weeks ago a Democrat flipped a long shot district presidential vote (D%-R%) -13 (2020), -21 (2024 rough estimates)
The special elections in the 3 US House districts:
NY-21 NY North Country (Stefanik) -16, -20
FL-06 Daytona Beach (Waltz) -24, -28
FL-01 Pensacola (Gaetz) -32, -37
For FL-06 in addition to D Josh Weil and R Randy Fine:
a libertarian, plus anti-abortion extremist Randall Terry, and another Republican running as an independent. The latter 3 could draw quite a few votes away from the Republican line from folks who will never vote for a Democrat, bringing the contest closer for Weil.
There are some blue areas in those districts and a concerted effort to get out those votes could matter. NY-21 has some colleges and St. Regis-Mohawk Akwesasne reservation.
D Candidates Josh Weil (FL-06) and Blake Gendebien (NY-21) have been fundraising.
The former has a bluesky link on his campaign website.
Soapdish
It will take much face-eating before that part of upstate NY votes for a Dem at the national level again.
I hope the candidate is a good one.
BlueGuitarist
@H.E.Wolf:
I wrote a few more postcards and will get some more addresses Friday. Going to try to get help from someone with much better handwriting.
H.E.Wolf
Congratulations on adding data wonkery to your curriculum vitae! I’m doing the same in my neck of the woods, except that our local equivalents of Mousebumples have already deciphered/entered the new folks.
I come along afterward and link them to their voter records. Sort of a database Zamboni.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It’s those people renaming it, so say hello to the “Not Gay Pacific”
H.E.Wolf
Fantastic! I like the sound of your collaborative approach.
(I once trained – suborned? – a 4-year-old family member of one of my clients to adhere the stick-on stamps to the outgoing envelopes. “Collaboration: start ’em early” is my motto!)
Mousebumples
@H.E.Wolf: that works! I’m putting my retail pharmacist skills from a previous job to work trying to read messy handwriting!
We’re also considering if there are better ways to gather signin info, and/or record meeting attendance from members. Some of us data team newbies are suggesting stuff like QR codes for the more tech savvy, with paper for those that prefer that. TBD – I think we’re holding until after the April SCOWIS race to make any big changes. Any suggestions from your neck of the woods?
H.E.Wolf
@H.E.Wolf:
I also had some stimulating philosophical discussions with same 4-year old, on the concept/rationale of upper-right-hand-corner stamp placement.
And then there was the day that my now-veteran 4-and-a-half-year-old assistant suddenly read out loud, stamp in hand, “Place Stamp Here”… which was printed on the envelope corner.
Both of us were gobsmacked. :)
H.E.Wolf
@Mousebumples:
Retail pharmacists are angels straight from heaven. No wonder you’re aces at this new gig!
As for your question… alas, I’m not conversant with that stage of the process. Maybe your State party office would have some relevant tips to share with the county folks? Or is there a really successful elected official whose campaign staff might have some good ideas?
BlueGuitarist
@H.E.Wolf:
“Database Zamboni” !!
just wanted to see that awesome phrase again!
H.E.Wolf
@BlueGuitarist:
Hee hee. The NFL can keep their halftime shows. *I* was always watching the Zamboni!
Mousebumples
@H.E.Wolf: eh, we’ll see how it goes. We’re moving from 1 data person to a team of 3-5, including one person who does database work at their day job. So they get all the database whatever stuff. I’ll be brainstorming and deciphering and doing whatever else! 😅
Have a good night, everyone!