Trump and Hegseth have had quite the time today.
REPORTER: Do you view Ukraine as an equal member of this peace process?
TRUMP: Ummmm … it’s an interesting question. I think they have to make peace. That was not a good war to go into.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 12, 2025 at 4:35 PM
“The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome for a negotiated settlement.”- Hegseth said.
He also added that Ukraine will not return to the 1991 borders
In Ukraine right now, it feels as though we are being plunged into an abyss without any safety net
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 9:35 AM
REPORTER: Do you future in which Ukraine returns to its pre-2014 borders?
TRUMP: It certainly would seem to be unlikely. They took a lot of land and they fought for that land.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 12, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Europe didn’t fare much better.
If this is a direct quote, it’s one of the most irresponsible and reckless things a SECDEF has ever said
— Tom Nichols (@radiofreetom.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 3:42 PM
From The Guardian:
Donald Trump’s newly appointed defence secretary told allies on his first international trip that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on European security and that Europe would have to take the lead in defending Ukraine.
Pete Hegseth, speaking to defence ministers at a lunchtime meeting in Brussels, said Europe had to provide “the overwhelming share” of future military aid to Kyiv – and recognise that restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was unrealistic.
The Pentagon chief said he was “here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though the language was notably toned down from a draft briefed in advance to the press.
That had said the US was no longer “the primary guarantor of security in Europe” and appeared to suggest a recasting of the 75-year-old Nato alliance, created after the second world war to protect western Europe from the Soviet bloc.
But in a speech to the Ukraine contact group of defence ministers in Brussels, chaired by the UK’s defence secretary, John Healey, he softened the language – a day before he is due to attend his first Nato summit of defence ministers.
Hegseth said the US was shifting its military priorities to defending its homeland and deterring China, and he called on European Nato members to hike defence budgets to 5% of GDP to better defend the continent.
As an example, Hegseth said Europe “must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine” in the future – though he did not say the US would halt all its military aid, which has been critical in helping Kyiv resist the Russian invasion.
He also reiterated Trump’s position that “stopping the fighting and reaching an enduring peace” in Ukraine is a top priority – and that Kyiv must recognise that it cannot win back all the land occupied by Russia.
“We must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,” Hegseth said, sketching out an initial position for any peace negotiations with Russia.
“Chasing this illusory goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering,” he added, though this could be interpreted as effectively acknowledging the annexation of Crimea, and large parts of the Donbas by Russia.
Kyiv would only achieve peace through “robust security guarantees”, but Hegseth ruled out Nato membership for Ukraine. Instead, peace would have to be secured by “capable European and non-European troops”, who he stressed would not come from the US.
Any British or European troops who did end up deployed in Ukraine would not be covered by part of a Nato mission or covered by the alliance’s article 5 guarantee, Hegseth added, meaning they would in effect be reliant on help from participating states.
Though Hegseth set out some positions for achieving peace in Ukraine, few experts believe there has been any serious diplomatic progress. Russia, which has been gaining ground on the battlefield, remains keen to press home its advantage and has demanded that Ukraine cede further territory and effectively be demilitarised as part of a deal.
More at the link.
The Weimar+ group – Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European External Action Service and the European Commission – issued a statement in response to all of Trump and Hegseth’s statements and remarks today:
12 of February 2025 – Paris
We are ready to enhance our support for Ukraine. We commit to its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s war of aggression.
We share the goal to keep supporting Ukraine until a just, comprehensive and lasting peace is reached. A peace that guarantees the interest of Ukraine and our own.
We are looking forward to discussing the way ahead together with our American allies. Our shared objectives should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength. Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations. Ukraine should be provided with strong security guarantees. A just and lasting peace in Ukraine is a necessary condition for a strong transatlantic security.
We recall that the security of the European continent is our common responsibility. We are therefore working together to strengthen our collective defense capabilities.
The problem with all these statements is that everyone other than Trump and Hegseth know that not only is Putin playing Trump, but that regardless of what they may thing, the Ukrainians actually have agency. They aren’t going to stop just because Trump or Hegseth tell them to. And Putin isn’t going to stop either, which is why we’re able to watch him wage his low intensity campaign against the EU and NATO member states in real time. It’s why the sabotage, the cable cutting, the attempts to blow up a passenger airliner, and the attempted and actual wetwork continues. And it will continue until someone actually steps up and stops Putin and Russia.
Threatening allies with territorial annexations and extorting partners while caving to Russia’s demands isn’t a display of toughness or masterful leadership. Waiting for a so-called tough leader to speak and act as strongly against Putin and Xi as he does against partners and allies
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Had call with Trump. Apparently “The Art of the Deal” is to give me everything I want.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Believe That America’s Strength Is Sufficient to Pressure Russia into Peace, Together with Us, Together with All Our Partners – Address by the President
12 February 2025 – 21:32
Dear Ukrainians!
Today has been a long and busy day. I have just held a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council – the decision has been made and will be published tomorrow. We are defending our state and restoring justice: everyone who undermined Ukraine’s national security and helped Russia – every one of them must be held accountable. The billions that were earned, essentially, by selling out Ukraine, Ukraine’s interests, Ukraine’s security must be frozen and must be used to protect Ukraine and Ukrainians. And this will happen. For sure. And there is also a decision on medicine prices for our people – something the citizens of Ukraine really need. A way has been found to reduce the cost of the top 100 medicines – the most important ones for our people – by 30% starting March 1. The Government must present all the details to the public. The changes must be tangible and positive for millions of Ukrainians. This is the personal responsibility of government officials, particularly the Minister of Health.
The second key point today. Very substantive negotiations with the United States of America. I had a conversation with President Trump – a good and detailed discussion; I am grateful to the President for his genuine interest in our shared opportunities, in how we can work together to bring real peace closer. It was a long conversation. We discussed many aspects – diplomatic, military, economic – and President Trump informed me of what Putin had told him. We believe that America’s strength is sufficient to pressure Russia and Putin into peace, together with us, together with all our partners. I also met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent – we are preparing an agreement that will strengthen our security and give new momentum to our economic relations. We plan to work out all the details so that we can present them within the framework of the Munich Conference and at our meetings with American representatives there, including with Vice President Vance, – so that we have a finalized vision of how to add more security and what document can formalize it.
And one more thing.
Today’s Russian missile strike on Ukraine – ballistics and drones. Right before the visit of the U.S. Secretary. Unfortunately, there are casualties – my condolences to their families. There are also those wounded. And it is obvious: absolutely everyone who can help with air defense must work to enhance the protection of people’s lives from Russian terror. Unfortunately, the war continues. Lives must be protected, and they must be protected every single day. We are doing our best to bring peace closer. I thank all those who are helping! And those who will stand with us on the first day of peace.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the readout of his phone call with Trump:
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with the President of the United States, Donald Trump.
The leaders discussed the possibilities of achieving peace, the willingness to work together towards this goal at the team level, as well as Ukraine’s technological capabilities, including drones and other modern production. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked President Trump for his interest in what they can accomplish together.
In addition, the parties focused on the results of the meeting between the President of Ukraine and the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, along with the preparation of a new agreement on security, economic and resource cooperation. Donald Trump informed his counterpart about the details of his phone call with Vladimir Putin.
The President of Ukraine and the President of the United States coordinated joint steps to stop Russian aggression and guarantee reliable and lasting peace; they also agreed to continue their contacts and meetings.
And here’s Trump’s readout of his call with Putin:
This feels like talks about Ukraine without Ukraine all over again.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s joint presser with Secretary Bessent:
And here’s the video of his interview with The Guardian:
Georgia:
Georgia is being Stalinized. If it becomes a second Belarus, that would be a huge and unaffordable blow to Europe.
My interview for @ipnEng:
www.interpressnews.ge/en/article/1…— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@glandsbergis.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 4:57 AM
🔴 The lawyers representing Mzia Amaglobeli, co-founder and CEO of Netgazeti and Batumelebi, will file a motion with the court on February 13, seeking to annul the preventive measure of detention imposed on her.
#RepressionInGeorgia
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) February 12, 2025 at 6:44 AM
The MIA has filed a lawsuit against Publika journalist @AnortherAlex. On Nov 28, he was severely beaten and arrested while on duty but wasn’t taken to the police station due to his injuries. The MIA claims he committed petty hooliganism and disobeyed police orders.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 1:38 PM
1/ Afgan Sadigov, an Azerbaijani journalist detained in Tbilisi and on hunger strike for more than four months, faces the risk of extradition. Sadigov has been on an absolute hunger strike since Feb 2. His health condition is extremely critical.
📸 @mindiagabadze.bsky.social
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 6:59 AM
2/ His wife, journalist Sevinc Sadigova, wrote on FB:
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 6:59 AM
3/ “My biggest wish is to see my children and you one last time. He already feels it’s the end. Afghan, I’m sorry I couldn’t save you. What we live in is a tragedy, a murder, a genocide. This is the biggest crime committed under the name of the law”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 6:59 AM
4/ The chief editor of Azel.tv, Afgan Sadigov, was arrested on August 3 2024, and was sentenced to 3 months of pre-trial detention. The Tbilisi City Court extended Sadigov’s detention for a 2nd time, adding another three months until Jan 31, 2025.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 6:59 AM
5/ On Jan 15, the Tbilisi Court of Appeal rejected the Azerbaijani journalist’s appeal against the refusal to grant him refugee or humanitarian status. Currently, Georgia is banned from extraditing Afgan Sadigov to Azerbaijan by order of the ECHR.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Thank you for remembering this video!
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 11:45 AM
The UK:
A new British-built surface-to-air missile system is being supplied to Ukraine which it’s hoped could be a solution to a lack of air defence.
Gravehawk has been developed from scratch in just 18 months. Gravehawk is armed with R-73 air-to-air missiles. www.forcesnews.com/ukraine/brit…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 1:28 PM
From Forces News:
A new British-built surface-to-air missile system is being supplied to Ukraine which it’s hoped could be a solution to one of Kyiv’s biggest problems – a lack of air defence.
Gravehawk has been developed from scratch in just 18 months and will be used to combat Russian aircraft, missiles and drones.
It’s highly innovative, relatively cheap – and deadly.
Defence Secretary John Healey, who was visiting Nato headquarters in Brussels, said the system was proof of Britain’s long-term commitment to Ukraine in its war with Russia.
The system is housed inside an ordinary ISO shipping container, meaning it can be quickly deployed on the back of a lorry, known as a Drops vehicle.
Once on the ground, the roof of the container can be rolled back to reveal the missile system inside, which is made up of two weapons rails taken from Soviet-era fighter jets such as the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker.
And that part of the design is key because it allows the system to fire Cold War-designed Vympel R-73 missiles, known to Nato as the AA-11 Archer.
These missiles, which are able to reach speeds of Mach 2.5 and have a range of 20 miles, are short-range weapons that are usually used for air-to-air combat.
And Ukraine has huge stocks of them – a legacy of its Soviet past.
What British engineers have done is adapt these R-73s so they can be fired from a ground-based system instead.
On top of the container is a camera system that uses passive IR to locate a target.
An image from the camera is sent to a command module, about the size of a large Peli case, which shows the target and then locks on before the missiles are fired. All the system needs to track a target is a heat signature.
Gravehawk is designed to shoot down large drones such as the Iranian-supplied Shahed, as well as Russian aircraft and missiles.
The use of IR also means the system itself doesn’t emit a radar signal so it’s less vulnerable to being detected.
Gravehawk took less than a year-and-a-half to develop at a cost of £6m.
It was developed by a small team at the MOD called Taskforce Kindred, which oversees the supply of UK weapons and equipment to Ukraine. A number of UK defence firms were involved, but who they were is classified.
So far two systems are in use with the Ukrainian military – and the MOD says they’ve already been used successfully on the frontline.
A further 15 of these are due to be delivered to Kyiv this financial year. Each Gravehawk system costs around £1m, with Denmark paying half the cost.
More at the link.
UK Defence Secretary John Healey, at the Ramstein-format meeting, announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth £150 million. The package will include tanks, artillery systems, and surface-to-air missiles.
“Because Ukraine’s security is global security.” – Healey said.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Latvia:
«Latvia will deliver 42 Patria 6×6 APCs to Ukraine this year, most of which will be completely new, the Ministry of Defense announced. The armored vehicles manufactured in Latvia will be delivered by the company SIA “Defence Partnership Latvia.» www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Back to Ukraine.
🇺🇦🔥 About 40 Shaheds are now in the sky over Ukraine. The main impact is in Odesa region, with about 20 drones there.
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Let me tell you something about this country of ours, Ukraine.
In Ukraine, our Muslim and Jewish communities stand united in full support of defending this country from being erased by Russia’s war of aggression.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
In Kyiv, we have Jewish cuisine restaurants and historic synagogues standing alongside Muslim cultural centers and the mosque—key landmarks of the city, next to our ancient cathedrals, the true heart of East Slavic Christianity.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
In central Kyiv, the Sholom Aleichem Museum and statue are almost next to halal restaurants. Crimean Tatar culture and cuisine have been thriving in the last decade (yes, the “Musafir”!).
And guess what?
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
There’s no antagonism, no violence, no mutual calls for genocide or expulsion—just normal, civilized coexistence and vibrant life.
Guess which country saw no Jewish pogroms after the October 7 attack and during the war in Gaza?
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
The chief rabbi of Ukraine speaks to the world, seeking compassion and support for Ukraine in wartime. His adopted son was killed in action, defending the country as a soldier.
Many prominent Jewish figures and their sons and daughters have fought for Ukraine since 2014.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
The chief mufti of Ukraine’s largest Muslim union resigned from his position after Russia’s full-scale invasion to serve in the military as a combat paramedic.
Our president is Jewish, and our defense minister is Muslim.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Despite Ukraine being a predominantly Slavic country, we have a Black member of parliament who is also an Olympic champion and a universally respected public figure with multiple state decorations.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Oh, and by the way—the so-called “CIA coup,” which people without brain worms know as the Euromaidan revolution against a corrupt Russian puppet regime that used brutal violence against peaceful protesters, started with a Facebook post by an Afghan-born Pashtun.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
He was one of Ukraine’s most influential journalists at the time and is now a prominent public and government figure—whose younger brother, a well-known lawyer and veteran care activist, lost an eye fighting for Ukraine.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Yeah, yeah, yeah, keep spamming about “Nazi Ukraine” in the comments—I’d love to see how many countries today can boast this level of interfaith and interethnic unity.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
If you like what I do, you can make my day and support my work – but only if you feel like to!
PayPal: [email protected]
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 7:11 AM
I want this war to end so desperately. But hope has betrayed so many before, shattered by each false dawn. Viktor Frankl wrote that those who believed the end was near were the first to break. Still, what else can we do but keep walking through the darkness?
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 3:23 PM
DRONE WARS: Reports from Russian Telegram channels of Ukrainian drones heading in direction of Moscow, as well as to E and S of European Russia. Meanwhile, large numbers of Russian attack drones are sweeping across Ukraine from east, in the usual nightly air attack.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Kyiv:
Russia just launched a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. More than a dozen building-shaking explosions just rocked the Ukrainian capital. Air defense engaged them but authorities say emergency services have been sent to locations where missile debris exploded and fires erupted.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 11, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Kyiv this morning.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Kyiv today after the russian missile attack on the city.
1 person died, and 4 got injured, including a child.— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 5:58 AM
A huge sinkhole has formed in one of Kyiv’s districts after a night attack.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 5:08 AM
Kharkiv:
These are russian drones over Kharkiv right now. They are here to kill us. Peace?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Putin’s-desire-to-stop-deaths is in Kharkiv skies right now and about to explode somewhere ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 5:21 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Ukraine’s Oleksiy Dmytrashkovskyy released recordings of Apti Alaudinov admitting Russia knew a Sudzha boarding school housed only civilians but still bombed it, endangering 100 people.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 2:35 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.
💙💪 A new warrior in the battle formation! 🐶
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) January 22, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Open thread!
Special Elections & More
Chief Oshkosh
And just like that, our massive post World War II investments of blood and treasure that provided us and much of the world unparalleled, if relative, stability and prosperity gets flushed down a golden toilet.
And the fucking Republicans in the House and Senate just sit there like drooling idiots.
Goddamn them all.
Gin & Tonic
@Chief Oshkosh: I posted earlier – I am 71, and am now looking at US influence on world affairs in the rear-view mirror. It will never return.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
It must be very frustrating for non-US NATO members, the EU and other allies of Ukraine to have to use Diplomatic language and manners when dealing with US “Officials”.
Hopefully, Taiwan and the rest of SEATO are paying attention.
Jay
Image of the police report at the link.
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lhvh4tk2xk2u
Bupalos
I think we should calm down a bit on the rhetoric and think about what is actually going on here. What Trump essentially announcing there will be an agreement means.
To me it means it’s very likely Putin actually wants a cease fire. If so, that is the real news here, and corresponds with a lot of recent indicators that Putin’s internal political position is decaying. He wants to freeze the conflict, and is convinced he’ll be in a stronger position to destroy Ukraine and the Baltics as time goes on.
He could be right about that, but that will essentially be for Europe to decide. There is a space here for the conflict to freeze and Putin to have to turn inward to breathe and sell this utter disaster as a victory to the Z radicals. Which maybe he can. But in the meantime Europe will have a space to make a full military and economic commitment to Ukraine. Europe may actually see its moment. If so, Putin may find that instead of a freeze improving his position it spells the end of his regime.
Bupalos
@Gin & Tonic: Never is a long time. But yes, we’re seeing the culmination of a decline here.
Let me remind everyone that 11 years ago Obama all but blessed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as something that we simply didn’t need to address because (essentially) history and the moral arc was going to do everything for us.
That was a moment we might have noticed.
zhena gogolia
So fucking depressing.
Lapassionara
@Bupalos: shut the fuck up.
Bupalos
@Lapassionara: why does this upset you?
HinTN
@Bupalos: I disagree with giving Putin one damn inch. Ukraine has fought bravely and effectively, despite the US approach of giving just enough to bleed the Russisns white. This is Europe’s time. May they rise to the occasion and not through appeasement.
Jay
@Bupalos:
Putin just mobilized another 150,000 troops, and the ruZZian MOD has cancelled all “contract” soldiers contracts, and made them all Regular Military, permanently enlisted, a massive pay and bonus savings. As of Jan 2nd, 40% of ruZZian Government spending is on the military and arms production.
ruZZia has no interest in ending the war, no interest in pausing the war, we know that Dolt 47 will try to give Putin all of Ukraine, after all, that was the deal.
Funny thing, is Ukraine and all of the US’s former partners in NATO, the EU and other Ukrainian Allies, have agency.
There will be no “peace deal”.
https://nitter.poast.org/Tatarigami_UA/status/1889377403148837188#m
karen gail
I fully expect that very soon Trump will be signing a EO to pull out of NATO, followed by one fully supporting Putin.
Bupalos
@HinTN: Both Ukraine and Russia have been bled close to dry. Patriotic fervor in Ukraine has been largely used up. Those Ukrainians shocked the world and taught it what courage is.
well, not us. Apparently we didn’t learn much. Europe still gets a chance to find itself and follow the people of Ukraine back to the land of the free and the home of the brave. We’re apparently going to wander aimlessly in the wilderness punching ourselves in the dick.
Gin & Tonic
@Bupalos: What it means is that Putin knows he can manipulate Trump into agreeing to whatever Putin wants.
me
A few months ago on the news they interviewed some Ukrainian women in Chicago who said that she was glad Trump won because he’d be tougher on Russia. There are way too many gullible idiots around.
YY_Sima Qian
Ukraine w/o Ukraine tracks w/ Trumpian FP elsewhere, since the US policy for Gaza is now Gaza w/o the Gazans.
Bupalos
@Jay: well, that’s entirely possible too. But Trump doing this high profile gives me some hope. If Putin is just playing him, that’s actually a fairly dangerous game. That’s a big risk for Putin, though I understand most people here think Trump is literally on his payroll. That’s not my understanding.
Gin & Tonic
@Bupalos:
How many Ukrainians do you know?
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I think Putin is prepared to fight a long war, but it would not surprise me if he is looking for opportunities to freeze the current war, consolidate his existing gains, so that he can lick his wounds & spend a few years trying to reconstitute the Russian military.
The Russian economy is in bad shape, it will not hold together forever in face of all the contradictions forced by the war footing.
Bupalos
@Gin & Tonic: That may be largely (though almost surely not completely) true. My thesis is more that Putin may want things that end up working to his disadvantage.
which is not generally accepted I understand. People think Putin is a kind of super genius.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
New Deal democrat
@Jay: Unfortunately once T—-p won the election, we all knew this was coming.
Hopefully Europe is prepared to up its defense spending necessary to defend itself, and help Ukraine after the U.S. pulls out.
And the worst is yet to come, because I believe there is about an 80% chance that T—-p *will* use the military to try to acquire one of the lands he has stated he covets.
Jay
@Bupalos:
as of January, 52% of Ukrainians polled by Gallop want a quick, negotiated end to the war, but by the EU and the UK, not the “fucking treasonous US”.
38% say fight to the end, one way or another.
Should be interesting polling going forward as the US pulls a Munich and slang for American’s become weak Chamberlains.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: Yeah, the Panama Canal comes to mind.
Bupalos
@Jay: I’m trying to document your first paragraph there and having a hard time. What do you mean he “just” mobilized 150,000 more troops? And is paying everyone less? What would that imply for morale and about the Russian economy?
Jay
@Bupalos:
read up on Minsk 1, Minsk 11 and the attempts in Turkey to negotiate an end to the war. No treaty or agreement with Putin’s ruZZia has ever been worth the paper it is written on.
Bupalos
@Gin & Tonic: couple dozen. I’m in a local Cleveland Carpatho Rusyn dance and culture troop sponsoring and interacting with refugees on the regular. My wife and her family is Ukrainian.
Ukraine has major recruiting and manpower issues because you can’t subtract the most patriotic 300k from a country that size and just find more.
Jay
@Bupalos:
He drafted 150,000 new ruZZians to be his meat cubes. In theory, the Conscripted, can’t fight by law in the SMO, (but not in practice), and can only be sent to combat inside ruZZia, (Kursk).
“Contract” soldiers signed a contract to fight in the SMO, until the end of the SMO or 2 years, which ever came first. In exchange, they on paper got signing bonus’s, which were in early January as high as $36,000, (10X the median ruZZian annual income) and monthly payments of $2,800. Few ever got paid and in Feb, their contracts were “torn up” and they are now “regular” Army, in theory being paid $1500 rubles a month, ($15).
Bupalos
@Jay: of course not.
The entire question here is whether a pause ends up working in Putin or Ukraine’s favor. The war will continue either way. If Europe finds its soul (something Putin I think assumes cannot happen) then a pause may spell the end of Putin. And there’s something about watching your big brother commit suicide that might spur that European soul searching.
that’s all I’m pointing to here guys. As you all understand, the election of Trump made a continuation of the rather sad status quo impossible. I’m just pointing to a possible silver lining, or a chance at one.
Bupalos
@Jay: a link would help. What is the date on this?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
All Putin has to do, to freeze the war and lick his wounds, rebuild the ruZZian military, is stop sending his meat cubes to attack Ukraine, bomb Ukraine, conduct human hunts and missile Ukrainian Cities.
After Minsk 1, he paused, entrenched, consolidated his gains, then attacked again once the ruZZian Army caught it’s breath, he did the same after Minsk II
As long as ruZZian Commanders continue to claim victories they haven’t won by lying, Putin thinks he’s making progress.
Librarian
Can I report a problem with the pie filter? I just pied Bupalos, but unfortunately it also pied several others whom I didn’t put in the filter. Is this a common problem?
Jay
@Librarian:
When you pie a commenter, you pie all replies to said commenter, but you can toggle over the pied replies to see what was said.
Bupalos
@Jay: this is what he’s expecting to do, few informed people have any doubt. But it glosses over a great deal that maybe shouldn’t be. I’m not PREDICTING that a pause works against him, but if I had to lay money…I marginally think it will. I think the shock to Europe of the American hegemon evaporating is going to help coalesce it in heretofore unpredictable ways.
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: I was in the room at US Army Europe HQ and WE NOTICED!
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: You might remember watching Putin play him in real time in Helsinki during his first term. That should be the context for everything going on here.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Sister Golden Bear
@karen gail:
Written in Russian.
Bupalos
@Librarian: If you just tell me what you don’t want me to say, I’ll oblige.
I frequently run afoul of the desire to see algorithmically advantageous thoughts even while providing analysis that when you drill down is even more what you want to hear. I can probably get past your filter with some hearty and honest FUCK THAT ORANGE ASSHOLE sentiments mixed with my hopeful theories on how my wife’s family does get their head’s smashed by a sledgehammer.
the internet. Whattayagunnado?
hitchhiker
the promise to Ukraine was that if they gave up the nuclear weapons they were holding to Russia, they would be defended.
do I have that wrong?
Bupalos
@Adam L Silverman: Yes it was the dumb collective American “we.” I find myself using that particular “we” more and more lately.
Of course, I got a “FUCK YOU FOR SUGGESTING COMPLEXITY OR THAT ANYTHING HAPPENED PRIOR TO THE PAST NOVEMBER” Response.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Chief Oshkosh:
That pretty much sums it up. Traitors. Give the Cheney clan credit, they’re not that. That’s all the credit I’ll give em but that counts for a crapton these days.
Sister Golden Bear
@Librarian: As Jay said, hiding any replies to someone you pied is the intended behavior (though you can see them via the toggle). The idea is to not have to see people’s replies, especially if their arguments with The Pie One starts taking over a thread.
Sort of a kinder, gentler, tastier version of Bluesky’s nuclear block.
Bupalos
@hitchhiker: Wellll… when your dealing with people that think history is over, you really have to read the fine print.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I read that (& Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure) as attempts to demoralize the Ukrainians so that they will be amenable to US pressure/coercion to freeze the conflict at current Line of Actual Control
That & wanting to take all of Donetsk.
Gin & Tonic
@hitchhiker: No.
zhena gogolia
@Librarian: Deleted. Asked and answered.
bbleh
I know a lot of it was just luck, but Putin’s successful recruitment as an agent of influence a psychologically disordered and truly stupid legacy multimillionaire and entertainer who ultimately became PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES is — alas! — an intelligence coup for the ages.
Bupalos
@Sister Golden Bear: I still can’t believe people don’t have more of a personal pang at openly stating within a venue that is already algorithmically selected for them “I want to make sure I can’t see other perspectives I find upsetting.”
Jay
@hitchhiker:
Nope, you got it right. The US promised to defend Ukraine and ruZZia promised to never attack Ukraine. All Ukraine’s nuclear and strategic arsenal was cut up for scrap.
Less valuable a piece of paper than the Munich Agreement.
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: I think the issue is that we all lived through 2015 to yesterday. We’ve all watched, and in my case for over a decade both professionally worked on and chronicled here, exactly what Putin has been, is, and is most likely to do. And we’ve all watched how Trump behaves in response and reaction to Putin. As well as Trump’s longest standing foreign policy belief dating to shortly after Roger Stone took him to visit Soviet Russia: the US pulling out of all alliances because the US is being ripped off.
The Ukrainians are going to do what they’re going to do. My professional take is that they’ll continue to fight. No matter what the US does.
Europe’s issue is one of will, ability to rapidly ramp up capability, and, perhaps as important as both of those, leadership. Perhaps that changes a bit once the German elections are over.
Sister Golden Bear
@Bupalos: No, it’s I’m under no obligation to waste my time with idiots and trolls, especially those muscling their way into my replies.
Bupalos
@Jay: wow. No. The United States did not provide the security guarantees suggested here and did not reneg on these nonexistent guarantees.
I mean, I’m a kind of Obama detractor now, but I definitely would not accuse him of this.
Librarian
@Jay: Thank you, but it is also blocking the replies of people who I didn’t want blocked. Something is wrong with the pie filter.
bbleh
@hitchhiker: the Orange Guy does not make promises in the sense that most people use the word, just as he does not “lie” or “tell the truth” or even “believe” in the ways most people use the words.
He says words that sound good to him at the moment, and/or because at the moment he thinks they will influence others to do as he wishes. They have no meaning or purpose other than that. And once uttered, they’re gone; they have no lasting meaning either.
Unfortunately, as President, he is now imposing that quality on the commitments of the United States. With him calling the shots, US credibility now is very much in question.
Another feather in Vova’s cap …
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
According to the South Koreans and the GUR, the NORK’s have sent 23,000 “students” to ruZZia to backfill their industries, and of course, ruZZia is still getting CNC machines and chips despite the sanctions. the ruZZian “ghost” fleet has now grown to 650 oil tankers.
By Western standards the ruZZian economy has always sucked balls for the poor and middle class, but that doesn’t change ruZZian minds in a nation of serfs.
Anton has covered extensively the ruZZian economy, and it’s not doing as badly as one would expect for Putin and the Kleptocrats, nor are sanctions having a serious effect on Putin’s war machine. The constraints of ruZZia have more effect.
Dimitri regularly posts on the shit life that is a ruZZian civilians, pensioners or meat cube, from ruZZian sources. In about a decade, State pensions will stop being paid, because between the war and the birth rate, there will be almost nobody paying in to the pension system, compared to those on pensions.
Bupalos
@Sister Golden Bear: No as I understand it using the pie filter affects what you see, not whether you are obligated to respond.
The funny thing about the pie filter is you don’t have to inform people you’re using it, and it flies in the face of the whole idea to do so. And yet…
people expect the internet to be the place where people say what they already think. It’s why the world is shaping up as it does. AND YOU’’RE PIED!!!!
Jay
@Bupalos:
educate yourself, it might help you to learn something,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
Bupalos
@Librarian: simple. tell them not to respond to me. Ach. Forgot.
let me put it differently: “tart cherry with a dollop of whipped cream”
Bupalos
@Adam L Silverman: yeah. Not everything repeats. I saw my Guardians whip the Yankees a couple times. Didn’t keep repeating. Things aren’t that predictable.
Jay
@Librarian:
Like I said and others have said, the pie filter blocks the pied, and all replies to the pied.
If you cursor over the pied responses, you can see what the replies are saying.
It is set up that way so that both trolls you block, and the replies to to the troll you blocked, (or one note wonder) show up as pie. It helps from comment threads being derailed, and it carries over from comment thread to comment thread. So all of Bupalos comments and all replies to him are now pied in all comment threads for you.
Poe Larity
Surrender monkey is surrender monkey.
Bupalos
@Jay: please cite the sentence you’ve misread as you’ve educated yourself on Wikipedia and think I need to be so educated that says the United States will defend Ukraine in the event it is attacked.
Not interested in a contest here, just think folks should understand the op is entirely wrong and the Minsk agreement was violated (after illegitimately being declared void) by Putin. No other power failed to honor their commitment because the commitment was only not to attack.
RaflW
@bbleh: Yes, all of this. But Hegseth saying that we’re backing away even partially from NATO is evidence that we’re really gonna fuck all of this up. That the work of a couple of generations is being undone. And mostly so the addled rich here in American can have a ‘small’ government with god-botherers setting social policy.
I’m apoplectic. And demoralized. But not quite done with the fight.
PJ
@Bupalos: Some people believe that life is too short to deal with sea lion bullshit.
Lyrebird
@Librarian: I have to click a button to toggle replies, not mouse-over as @Jay: said in his explanation.
I didn’t see it at first, but if it’s pied, where there’s usually a [Reply] button it’s actually a [Toggle] button. Can click to unhide or re-hide replies.
PS to Jay: I heard “Life is a Highway” in the (US) grocery store today! Now when I hear CanCon, I think of you! Hope your loved ones are getting the health care they need.
Jay
@Bupalos:
FYI, the Budapest Memorandum (1994) is neither the Minsk Agreement I, (2014) or the Minsk Agreement II (2015). The US was not involved in either Minsk Agreement.
Bupalos
@Jay: “but I want to see all the sick dunks on the stuff I reject without reading! Why do I have to engage with disinformation like “the United States did not provide security guarantees to Ukraine in the Minsk agreement(s) outside promising themselves not to attack it” just to see the sick dunks???!
TBone
The tankies are in a state of shock and denial over DOGEshit, and I am unabashedly delighted watching them squirm like the worms they are. Wait till they Find Out about everything else. One guy I read for kicks poo pooed Harris’s campaign for “using snark” and has today publicly eaten his words. Reap what you sow, motherfuckers.
🎶
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U604CRBkUY0
Gin & Tonic
@bbleh:
No, it isn’t…
Jay
@Lyrebird:
T’s cancer free, since January, so there is that.
The new CanCon song rocketing up the charts is “Fuck America”. We will see if it becomes a classic.
Bupalos
@Jay: is that where the security guarantees are?
Jay
@Bupalos:
Thank’s for letting the whole community clearly know that you are sick, twisted fuck and a waste of protoplasm.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay:
I am very happy for the two of you.
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: I tried to take your commenting at face value, but your behavior to the other commenters is out of line. Stop commenting in this post and don’t ever comment in another of my posts again.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
I am happy that Slava is still alive, still fighting and got to see his family a couple of weeks ago. Slava has not given up, his wife has not given up, (Ukrainian Canadian Congress), but they are fighting with their son, who want’s to quit University, (3rd year Engineering) and go to Ukraine to fight.
And thank you.
Bupalos
@PJ: this is getting to be quite the aside, so I’ll refrain from further examination of the internet phenomena of people announcing their unilateral excommunication.
But when the academic field of “online communication studies” is invented, it’s going to be big I tell you.
Bupalos
@Adam L Silverman: I honestly don’t get it. Can you explain?
Lyrebird
@Jay: Hot diggity dog, those are both amazing bits of news (sorry I am not on as frequently), but one of ’em’s more important!
Continued good thoughts to T and you anyhow as you get to exhale! Thanks for also letting us know Slava is thus far still alive.
bbleh
@Gin & Tonic: dunno man — tariffs in violation of agreements, threats to Panama and Denmark in violation of agreements, Hegseth’s comments about the security of western Europe (!!!). And that’s not to mention their flagrant disregard for the rule of law domestically.
Even if the Orange Guy and his minions don’t back up their mouth-noises with real actions (or inactions), it’s the mouth-noises that are the problem. If they mean what they say, then past US commitments are unreliable, and if they don’t mean what they say, then the present statements of the US are unreliable. One way or the other, they have made our word unreliable.
Jay
@bbleh:
I think that Gin and Tonic was making the point that the only thing about America, for quite a long time, is that it is not reliable. So this is just par for the course on steroids, adderall, coke and ketamine.
Gin & Tonic
@bbleh:
That was my point. US credibility is not “in question” – it is non-existent.
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: Go away and don’t come back to this or any other future post of mine. Or I’m banning you. Your behavior towards the other commentators is trollish at best and unacceptable at worst. People are stressed enough in general that they don’t need the additional aggro.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Excellent news!
davek319
@Bupalos: …about those 112 million registered US voters who couldn’t be arsed to vote to save their country.
On them. We have always known all Republicans are traitors and cowards. Fuck Liz Cheney and Darth Daddy upside down with a Sidewinder. That was the end of Harris, right there.
bbleh
@Jay: @Gin & Tonic: lol sorry I misunderstood.
I’ll stick with my qualifier though, because I don’t think it’s GAME OVER quite yet. There’s still a lot of residual goodwill and a lot of relationships that likely will survive at least the next few years. I think the challenge will be to mitigate the immediate damage, preserve what can be preserved, and prevent things from spiraling downward into recriminations, tit-for-tat, and major drawbacks or complete unraveling.
The Orange Guy is and always has been a TERRIBLE businessman, and his minions (including Melon) are equally bad and/or following his lead. If I were managing any kind of reciprocal relationship right now, from either side, I think one of my major goals would be to keep it off the radar as much as possible, because if/when he/they get involved, it’ll only fk things up. ETTD.
Bupalos
@Adam L Silverman: I’ll will respect that and leave now. I would appreciate it if at another time you would read back through this thread and reassess what happened here.
In my perspective, I was attacked “fuck you-ed” and had a gratuitously identified “pie” conversation because people simply do not want to hear a perspective on how this COULD work out for Ukraine, via a pause Putin thinks he wants but may not, and a more reliable partner in Europe standing up. Maybe that’s optimistic and maybe I felt like being optimistic.
I shouldn’t have taken bait on getting named in piefest but the nature of online communication and how we shut out perspectives that don’t specifically align with the emotional thing we want to engage in (which is fuck Trump, always and only… a sentiment I wholeheartedly agree with but is not the end all and be all of discussion) … the nature of that is something I think about and am easy to draw out. I think it’s killing us.
I’m requesting you read the responses in order and reconsider that opinion. Whether or not you do, I’ll respect your wishes and thank you now for all the very difficult content you’ve provided day after day, which as I’ve said before, I rarely miss but often have no energy to engage with. I have personal connections as do others here so it’s often exhausting to think about.
thank you and goodnight. But please do correct the board if it is your opinion that neither the U.S. nor Europe provided security guarantees to Ukraine (beyond not attacking) in exchange for nuclear contraction. The “educate yourself” on that was hard to bear.
Elizabelle
@bbleh: Two good comments.
HopefullyNotcassandra
Glory to Ukraine!
May Ukraine and Ukrainians thrive.
Steve Crickmore
‘Peace for our time’.
Jay
@bbleh:
In 2022, 87% of Canadians said that the US was a trusted partner.
In January 2025, it was 17%.
When NAFA looked like it might become a “real thing”, BC started an economic outreach fund, subsidizing BC Businesses and tacking on a Minister or two to trade trips, to grow new markets.
Annually, between 87% and 91% of the funds were spent courting new US Markets.
Until 2025, the budget is now 61% EU, 22% China, 17% other, 0% USA,
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: I will sleep on it.
In the mean time, just ease up. Everyone is on edge and you’re turned up to 14 tonight.
Librarian
@Jay: Thank you, I had not known that the replies to the pied were also blocked.
Thor Heyerdahl
So if something was to happen to Hegseth that was alcohol related, how would we know if it was of his own accord or foreign influence?
hotshoe
Interesting that Hegseth has made it impossible to take Trump’s “peace plan” seriously.
Basically: we’ll do the negotiating for you, Ukraine, we’re telling Putin in advance of any actual negotiating that Ukraine cannot get its territory back!
Then, having unilaterally ceded Ukraine’s territory, Hegseth goes on to dissemble about “robust security guarantees” which would have to be upheld without any actual US support.
When the US announces its intention to give away part of Ukraine and admits to plans of abandoning any US stake in defending what remains of Ukraine — why under god’s blue heaven would any Ukrainian or other European citizen have faith in US talks.
I get that Hegseth was speaking with defense ministers who are professionals and who are supposed to remain calm in the face of provocation. But honestly, that whole group should have thrown shoes at Hegseth.
Jay
@hotshoe:
Don’t forget, 95% of the “rare earth minerals” Dolt 47 demands as tribute, are under ruZZian jackboots.
F’n morons. The US is now a kakistocracy. Idiocracy is now a documentary.
HeiSokoly
Trump became Russia’s willing serf in 1987, immediately attacking all our alliances both in and out of NATO that year—particularly Japan and France, while saying we should work with Moscow on nuclear non-proliferation, and was already being groomed by Manafort and Stone for the White House by then.
I have not been able to determine if Manafort and/or Stone were already Quislings by then, or if all three were recruited at the same time, but it was certainly accomplished well before 2006, when Manafort went to work openly for Yanukovych—along with future Bernie Sanders staffer Tad Devine—let alone 2016 or 2018. But Putin inherited Trump from the years before the Wall fell and he fled Dresden with his washing machine tied to his car…and Buzzfeed, Vox, and Salon revealed it years before Biden was elected to ultimately NOT stop the buck anywhere, let alone the Resolute Desk—as in hindsight makes sense for someone whose second honeymoon was taken in occupied Hungary after getting married at the UN, still in living memory of the slaughter of 1956…)
HeiSokoly
@Bupalos: The US explicitly promised not to engage in financial coercion in that treaty, so you clearly haven’t actually read all 6 paragraphs of it, as you would know we actively violated it too, if you had.
Oh and to hold certain specific meetings, which per President Zelenskyy at Munich on February 19, 2022, had still not been undertaken:
”Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.”
Putin, at least, understood the implications of that statement at the time, though Gen. Kellogg’s recent remarks show it is not taken seriously in Washington to this hour.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: this is so great.
Traveller
God forbid this thing is settled by Trump/Putin…but if it is, I care where the lines are drawn. For example, I want the left bank of The Dnipro River, to a depth of 20~25 miles, especially around the Delta and Kherson.
Securing the left bank is very important to me(…lol…foolish me)…important to Ukraine.
Best Wishes, Traveller
Jay
@Traveller:
This will be settled by Ukraine.
karen gail
So Trump “believes” that he and Putin can work things out; rather than bothering to find out what Ukraine wants. I thought I read somewhere that Trump wants the rare earth minerals from Ukraine in return for “brokering peace.”
The real shame is that Ukraine believed if it gave up nuclear weapons it would be protected; since the US was part of that deal the Ukrainian people should have paid attention to how well the US government keeps promises. (Look at the Native Tribes and how well those promises were kept.)
Jay
@karen gail:
It’s a simple deal,
95% of Ukraine’s “rare earth” metals, ( and titanium, gold and platinum) are in the ruZZian occupied areas of Ukraine, with all the mining infrastructure either cut apart for scrap metal or looted to ruZZia
So it’s a paper deal, Ukraine signs over the mineral rights, gets the money and weapons, walks the buyers up to the zero line and say’s “your mining claim is over there, 50km to the east, good luck with that”.
NotoriousJRT
@Librarian: someone has probably already said this. Pie filter filters the target and all replies / comments associated with posts of the target. You can see them if you toggle.
Sorry for the repeat.
YY_Sima Qian
A chilling analysis of the Trump-Putin call:
Hegseth’s speech is further evidence that the Trump natsec team is coalescing around the concept of Darwinian multipolar world where each great power secures its own circle of protectorates & formal spheres of influence, w/ sacrificial zones in between. Of course, they remain committed primacists that want to see the US dominate other great powers, too.
However, at some point the Europeans & other US allies/partners being sold out will start to act more decisively to protect their own self-interests.
Eolirin
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m not sure what good a US/Russian agreement that Ukraine and the EU doesn’t agree to will do; Ukraine is building up its capacity to produce it’s own weapons and as long as the EU continues to provide support there’s not much reason for Ukraine to agree to a bad deal.
If Trump accelerates the EU transitioning to being able to go it alone without US military backstop out of necessity, then Trump also makes it so that the EU has no reason to listen to the US.
We will have no leverage unless we start threatening to militarily intervene on the side of Russia. Even with this crowd, I can’t see that happening.
Liminal Owl
@Jay: Congratulations to T! Thank you for that bit of good news, and best wishes to both of you. My beloved received similar news 15 years ago and has remained so. May T experience the same.
FWIW, during the school year that I hosted a radio show, the guy who monitored CanCon on American “folk”-type shows emailed to say that mine consistently had the highest percentage of it. (And I had learned the term from reading Robertson Davies.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Eolirin: The trouble is that in many Western European polities there is rising fatigue w/ the Ukraine War, & more elements are being more vocal about wanting to see the “end” of the war ASAP. Given the economic weakness across much of Europe, their ability to finance their own rearmament & continue to provide the material & financial aid to Ukraine should not be taken for granted. There will likely be an unpopular trade off w/ social welfare.
The AfD is now polling 2nd after the CDU in Germany, & it is running on a unapologetically pro-Russian platform. Now, we have people around Trump (such as Elon Musk) openly supporting forces such as the AfD.
I expect the Trump MAGA transparently transactional, coercive & abusive posture toward the EU & everyone else will cause a backlash, but unfortunately that backlash does not preclude the Western parts of Europe abandoning Ukraine, depending on how the populist/nativist currents flow.
After all, at least Europe can get cheap oil & gas from Putin, where Europe has to purchase expensive oil & gas from Trump, pay through the nose for closed source AI tools owned by US Big Tech, pay through the nose for US weapons, while Trump lures European industries to the US.
Fortunately, reactionary European forces such as the AfD have not yet attained the level of support & power that the Repubs have achieved in the US.
Wilson Heath
It’s not every day you see a Nazi cosplaying as Neville Chamberlain, but it’s just shaping up to be that kind of year.