A housekeeping note: Last night things got quite heated in the comments. The result was I asked Bupalos to not comment in my posts anymore. They asked if I’d reconsider and provide an explanation, which I said I would. After sleeping on it and thinking about it with twelve to fifteen hours of distance, I am reversing that request. The reason I’m doing so is because everyone, including myself, is right now on a very short fuse given what is going on in and with the Trump-Musk administration. Things that six weeks ago wouldn’t cause more than rolled eye brows now have all of us working not to let someone have it with both barrels. After reviewing their comments and the responses to them, I think this is what happened last night. Bupalos came in with a contrary take and when called on it, things escalated and got heated in the responses and the responses to the responses. I reached out to Bupalos directly a few hours ago to let them know and that I would address this at the top of tonight’s post.
Bupalos: you are welcome to comment. I apologize for responding in haste and not deliberately.
Everyone: let’s all dial it back a few notches. Also, please don’t ask me how features on this site work. I have no idea.
Hegseth held a press conference today after the NATO ministers of defense meeting. It was an incoherent mess. I’ll get to it after the jump because I want to excerpt the first three or four questions and answers and then address the mess that Trump and Hegseth have made of this because neither of them know what they’re talking about. His performance, especially how he was speaking, have already raised speculation that he was intoxicated and that his alcoholism is not under control. He also brought the urinalysis watcher with him on the trip.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Military Delivered Important Reports Today; There is a Good Result on the Frontline – Address by the President
13 February 2025 – 19:40
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today we’re on a regional trip.
First stop: the Khmelnytskyi region, our Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, a meeting on security and a crucial project – the completion of additional power units at the plant. We are preparing to launch four new power units in Ukraine. The first phase includes two units, adding 2.2 GW, followed by a second phase – two more units, American-made by the way, from Westinghouse, also contributing 2.2 GW. We are working with our American partners to complete this plant, which will become our most powerful one. This major project will not only allow Ukraine to eliminate the need for electricity imports during difficult winter periods but also provide cheaper electricity for our people and industries. I’m grateful to everyone who supports this effort. Thank you very much!
Today, I also visited the Rivne region, Ostroh, our Ostroh Academy. I had a great conversation with awesome students, followed by a meeting with local businesses.
Now, we are already preparing for meetings and negotiations at the Munich Security Conference. On the road, I have just held talks with Polish Prime Minister Tusk and Lithuanian President Nausėda.
We are coordinating our positions on Europe’s collective defense. It is critical for all of Europe to work together to achieve common goals.
Today, I also received reports from our military – very important reports. There’s a good result on the frontline. It’s not appropriate to mention specific locations. I won’t turn this into politics, but I want to thank the guys from the 425th Separate Assault Regiment – your strength truly matters. Well done! I also just spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – we must strengthen our Air Force, particularly its aviation component – our military aviation. I instructed the Commander-in-Chief to discuss this with Brigadier General Serhii Holubtsov and report back on a possible personnel change in the Air Force, including the consideration of appointing General Holubtsov as Deputy Commander of the Air Force.
Glory to Ukraine, Ukrainians!
And here’s the video of President Zelenskyy’s press availability at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant.
Georgia:
“We will not stop. Call elections!”
“Listen to the voice of the people. The people demand their voice be heard!”
“Georgia, rise up! Rebel!”
“We do not tolerate oligarchy, we crave democracy”
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 78— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Georgian operatic bass and freedom activist Paata Burchuladze was barred from marking his 70th jubilee at the Tbilisi Opera, so yesterday, people marched in his honour and played “Va, pensiero” as they passed the Opera towards the Parliament. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Sophie Zviadadze— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Day 78. People chanting “Revolt!” “Until the end!” “Strength is in unity!” while “Fire to the oligarchy!” is depicted on the Parliament, implying the oligarch’s state capture that led to his dictatorship.
People are also happy about the EU Parliament resolution. #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Black Mirror via Chinese surveillance in Georgia. Near Tbilisi Concert Hall. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Dato Koridze— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Mzia Amaglobeli has been on hunger strike for 33 days as a form of protest, while Temur Katamadze has been on hunger strike for 28 days. Mzia is in a clinic, but Temur Katamadze refuses to be taken there.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 2:52 AM
✊ Peaceful protest is a human right!
🇬🇪 Journalist Mzia Amaglobeli was arrested at a peaceful protest in Batumi & is on hunger strike.
We demand her release!🤬 Georgia’s far-right government is cracking down on protests & media.
📣 The EU must stand with Georgians!— European Greens (@europeangreens.eu) February 13, 2025 at 10:44 AM
When a society faces a fundamental threat like the establishment of a dictatorship, you must be emotionally prepared for the unbothered detachment of those who you firmly believed would be standing next to you.
To win, you need to survive, and that’s all about endurance.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Salome Zurabishvili and Giorgi Gakharia are participating in the Munich Security Conference, which kicks off tomorrow.
Georgian Dream is not participating—they have not been invited to the event.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The US:
As I indicated above, Hegseth held a press conference at the NATO ministers of defense meeting.
REPORTER: Can you give a guarantee that no deal will be forced on Ukraine that they do not want to accept?
HEGSETH: That’s not ultimately my decision. President Trump — I’ve got the Truths right here that he posted — called both, in case we missed it, Vladimir Putin and President Zelenskyy
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
I want to highlight these portions from the official transcript:
UNKNOWN: Thanks very much. Let’s start with the US traveling TV pool with Liz Frieden.
Q: Thank you, Secretary Hegseth. You have focused on what Ukraine is giving up. What concessions will Putin be asked to make?
DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH: Well, that’s — I would start by saying the arguments that have been made that somehow coming to the table right now is making concessions to Vladimir Putin outright, that we otherwise — or that the President of the United States shouldn’t otherwise make, I just reject that at its face.
There’s a reason why negotiations are happening right now, just a few weeks after President Trump was sworn in as President United States. Vladimir Putin responds to strength. In 2014 he invaded Crimea, not during the presidency of Donald Trump. Over four years, there was no Russian aggression from 2016 to 2020. In 2022, Vladimir Putin took aggression on Ukraine. Once again, not while President Trump was President of the United States.
So any suggestion that President Trump is doing anything other than negotiating from a position of strength is on its face a historical and false. So when you look at what he may have to give or take, what’s in or what’s out in those negotiations, we have the perfect dealmaker at the table from a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy.
No one’s going to get everything that they want, understanding who committed the aggression in the first place. But I challenge anyone else to think of a world leader at this moment who, with credibility and strength, could bring those two leaders to the table and forge a durable peace that ultimately serves the interests of Ukraine, stops the killing and the death, which president has been — Trump has been clear he wants to do and hopefully ultimately is guaranteed — or guaranteed by strength of Europeans who are there prepared to back it up.
Q: To follow up on that — follow up. Thank you, sir. Why not invoke article five then for the NATO peacekeeping forces that could potentially be deployed? Like, how does that deter President Putin?
DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH: Well, I would say I want to be clear about something as it pertains to NATO membership not being realistic outcome for negotiations. That’s something that was stated as part of my remarks here as part of a coordination with how we’re executing these ongoing negotiations, which are led by President Trump.
All of that said, these negotiations are led by President Trump. Everything is on the table in his conversations with Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy. What he decides to allow or not allow is at the purview of the leader of the free world of President Trump. So I’m not going to stand at this podium and declare what President Trump will do or won’t do, what will be in or what will be out, what concessions will be made or what concessions are not made.
I can look as our team has of what’s realistic, likely on an outcome. I think realism is an important part of the conversation that hasn’t existed enough inside conversations amongst friends. But simply pointing out realism, like the borders won’t be rolled back to what everybody would like them to be in 2014, is not a concession to Vladimir Putin. It’s a recognition of hard power realities on the ground after a lot of investment and sacrifice first by the Ukrainians and then by allies and then a realization that a negotiated peace is going to be some sort of demarcation that neither side wants. But it’s not my job as the Secretary of Defense to define the parameters of the President of the United States as he leads some of the most complex and consequential negotiations in the world.
UNKNOWN: Sticking with the US press, let us go with Axios’ Zach Basu right in the far right.
Q: Thank you, Mr. Secretary. Given the position you’ve now staked out, what leverage exactly is Ukraine being left with, especially if the US also plans to wind down its military aid? And then quickly, if a NATO ally is attacked by Russia or any country, will the US unequivocally uphold its obligations under article five regardless of that country’s —
DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH: — We’ve said we’re committed to the alliance and that’s part of the alliance, right? You pointed out article five. You point out article three — it’s just a cheap — I’m not saying it’s cheap coming from you — but it’s just a cheap political point to say, oh, we’ve left all the negotiating cards off the table by recognizing some realities that exist on the ground. President Zelenskyy understands the realities on the ground. President Putin understands the realities on the ground. And President Trump, as a dealmaker, as a negotiator, understands those dynamics as well.
By no means is anything that I state here, even though we lead the most powerful military in the world, hemming in the commander in chief, in his negotiations, to ultimately decide where it goes or does not go. Well, he’s got all the cards he would like.
And the interesting part is oftentimes while the conventional status quo mindset or the legacy media wants to play checkers, the same checkers game we’ve been playing for decades, President Trump time and time again finds a way to play chess — as a dealmaker, as a businessman who understands how to create realities and opportunities where they otherwise may not exist.
Take for example, the conversations that our treasury secretary had in Kyiv recently with President Zelenskyy, which will continue in Munich with our vice president and secretary of state, around investments and resources inside Ukraine. I don’t want to get ahead of any decision or announcement that could be made there, it could be any number of parameters.
But President Trump as a dealmaker and a businessman recognizes that an investment relationship with Ukraine, ultimately in the long term for the United States, is a lot more tangible than any promises or shared values we might have, even though we have them. There is something to relationships and deals in real ways, whether militarily or economically or diplomatically, that he sees that are possibilities that could forge together a lot of opportunities to show that solidarity that Vladimir Putin will clearly recognize.
That’s one of any number of other opportunities that this president will leverage in these high-stake negotiations. So, I just reject on its face the premise that somehow President Trump isn’t dealing with a full set of cards when he’s the one that can determine ultimately what cards he holds.
UNKNOWN: Great. Now shifting to the international press, we’ll take the French wire service Agence France Presse with Max Delaney.
Q: Thank you very much, Secretary of Defense. Can you — you’ve spoken about trying to force both Putin and Zelenskyy to the table. Can you give a guarantee that no deal will be forced on Ukraine that they do not want to accept? And also, that you will include Europe in the negotiations about their own — about an issue that concerns European security? And can you tell us whether the US will continue to supply arms to Ukraine during any negotiations?
DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH: Well, to the first part of your question, that’s not ultimately my decision. The president will lead these negotiations alongside our secretary of state, our national security advisor, and numerous other officials that will be involved. And ultimately, we’ve played our role in talking to our NATO allies about what that would look like.
President Trump, I want to point out, I’ve got the truth’s right here that he posted, called both, in case we missed it, Vladimir Putin and President Zelenskyy, called them both. Any negotiation that’s had will be had with both.
I also am very encouraged by what the secretary general has said here. Clearly attuned to the realities of the moment, the need for peace, and that the NATO alliance and European members will play a role in that.
Ultimately, President Trump speaking to those two countries is central to the deal being made. But it affects a lot of people, of course. So, I’m not going to be involved in those intimate diplomatic negotiations. That’s for the pros atop the Trump administration who do diplomacy and negotiations. Ultimately as security assistance, we have continued to provide what has been allocated.
I think it would be fair to say that things like future funding, either less or more, could be on the table in negotiations as well. Whatever the president determines is the most robust carrot or stick on either side to induce a durable peace, understanding, obviously, the motivations that Vladimir Putin has had on Ukraine for quite some time. Thank you.
We’ll start with the easy one: President Zelenskyy did not agree to and sign the deal that Bessent brought to him in Ukraine yesterday. If he wouldn’t sign it in Kyiv, I’m not sure why Hegseth thinks President Zelenskyy will sign it in Munich.
I want to really focus on the rancid meat here: the idea that somehow Trump is on control over when this war ends. He’s not. To a large extent Putin is. He illegally re-invaded Ukraine, it is his military committing genocidal war crimes and crimes against humanity every day. It is his country illegally occupying a good chunk of Ukraine. This could all end tomorrow if Russia stops its genocidal re-invasion and pulls its troops back to the international recognized borders.
The other main player is the Ukrainians, who are currently led by President Zelenskyy.
You can’t negotiate an end to a war between one non-participant/belligerent and one of the two actual parties to the war, who is also the aggressor. You can, but like the not an actual ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the latter of which was not actually at war with Israel, you don’t actually get an end to hostilities. Which is why the Israelis stuck Beirut this morning.
The Russians, of course, are thrilled:
⚡️US is Russia’s ‘main counterpart’ in talks to end war, Kremlin says.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Kyiv “will definitely take part in the negotiations in one way or another,” but there will also be a “bilateral Russian-American track.”
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) February 13, 2025 at 11:31 AM
I get that Trump’s understanding of how any of this works is minuscule, that Hegseth is in way over his head, and that Rubio is out of the loop and being managed by a zampolit, but whether they or Putin like it or not, the Ukrainians get a vote. I also expect the Poles, the Estonians, the Latvians, the Lithuanias, the Romanians, the Finns, the Swedes, and the Norwegians will also have something to say.
In fact, I think what we’ve been observing over the past almost three years is the emergence of a new security alliance that will include Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Moldova. I would also expect that Finland would be involved and, most likely, Sweden and Norway. If Russia thinks it has had trouble actually winning its three day special military operation against Ukraine, it should really think about what a war with an alliance of some or all those states. As I’ve written many times, Poland’s President Duda is spoiling for a fight with Russia. And since the Polish general who was in charge of their modernization program for several years is my former student, I know that Poland can put their money where their mouth is.
Kaja Kallas declared that Europe will back Ukraine if it rejects a U.S.-Russia deal.
“Any agreement without Ukraine and Europe will fail… Ukraine will resist, and Europe will support it.” – Head of the European External Action Service.— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Trump and Hegseth and whomever else can posture and shit talk all they want, the reality is that they have either already made things worse in several crises or are going to get hit by expansions of them in the next several months. In the past week Trump has blown up the Israel-Hamas ceasefire that he took credit for when all he did was get Bibi to stop holding out because the latter thinks he can play the former like a fiddle. In doing so he has put the future of both the Israeli-Egyptian and the Israeli-Jordanian peace agreements in jeopardy, let alone the lives of any remaining hostages. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was never worth the paper it was printed on because the actual other party to the conflict – Hezbullah – is not a party to the ceasefire agreement. That one’s on the Biden team, but Israel has never actually abided by the ceasefire agreement and is not going to start now that Trump is president. And this is on deck:
This is the real news, buried in the warning of an Israeli strike. “The US assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current & former officials” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Just as Biden’s presidency wound up consumed by events in eastern Europe and the Middle East they had not foreseen, were not ready for, and had the wrong makes, models, and types of senior personnel in place to deal with, so to will Trump’s. For all that I was and am unhappy with how Biden and his team handled these crises, they are going to look like the A-Team compared to the mess that Trump and his team are going to be as events over take what they want to do.
One other item: I’ve advised three Canadian generals and was one of the professors for the now former Chief of the Canadian Defense Forces. If Trump thinks the Canadians cannot defend themselves, he’s got another think coming.
Moldova:
Moldova to close Russian Cultural Center after Russian Shahed drones crash on Moldova territory
“After the termination procedures are completed, the Russian Cultural Center must cease its activities in our country,” the Moldovan Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Drone debris labeled “Geran-2” was presented to Russia’s special envoy in Chișinău, Oleg Ozerov, as evidence of Russia’s involvement in the recent attacks on Moldova’s territory. However, the Russian diplomat claims that this evidence is insufficient and demands “additional investigations.”
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Back to Ukraine.
You can go as far as to add Article 15 to the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which would say, “Ukraine will absolutely never, ever, ever, ever join NATO under any circumstances because Putin wants that,” and Russia will still not leave Ukraine alone and will not stop the war.
Guess why.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Chamberlain 1938
Trump 2025— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Ukrainian military helicopter Mi-24 which intercepted a 25 Shahed kamikaze drones launched by Russians. (Or 22 Shahed and 3 drones of another model)
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Kramatorsk:
Today, russia struck the residential area of Kramatorsk, killing 1 persons and injuring 5 others, including a child.
“putin wants deaths to stop…”🤦♀️— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Russian occupied Crimea:
Partisans of the “ATESH” movement continue to document how Russians are trying to strengthen the Balaklava Bay in occupied Crimea. They are installing new boom barriers against unmanned boats and underwater drones. Additionally, Russians are mining entrance areas.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Tver, Russia:
Anonymous sources in the SBU reported that drones struck the “Andreapol” oil refinery station in Tver, Russia.
It’s the second attack on this facility.
The recent strike caused a fire in the area of the closed distribution device and temporarily halted oil pumping.— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 10:17 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Ukrainian drones hit the Andreapol oil pumping station in Russia’s Tver Oblast for the second time in two weeks overnight on Feb. 13, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent.
According to the source, the oil pumping station that came under the SBU‘s attack is part of the Baltic Pipeline System-2 operated by Russian state-owned oil pipeline company Transneft.
The attack caused a fire near a closed switchgear and boiler equipment warehouse, the source said, forcing the facility to suspend oil pumping.
The station is located around 750 kilometers (466 miles) north of Ukrainian border.
“Every day this oil pumping station’s idle time costs Russia tens of millions of dollars , since it is part of the pipeline that supplies oil to the Ust-Luga terminal on the Baltic Sea,” the source said.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify these reports.
If confirmed, this is the second drone attack on the facility. The first one was carried on Jan. 29, damaging the filtration pumping area and additive tanks at the station, a source in the SBU told the Kyiv Independent.
Kyiv considers oil refineries to be valid military targets, as profits from the fossil fuel industry fund Russia’s war machine.
Russia’s petroleum facilities and infrastructure are dual use facilities, which places them within what US doctrine calls collateral damage estimate (CDE) level 5. Dual use facilities are permitted targets if they are determined to be militarily necessary targets, but they require a potential casualty estimate
Moscow:
GUR reported that two advanced radar systems were destroyed near Moscow. This is a cutting-edge development of the Russian military-industrial complex – the first of its kind to be adopted into service by the Russian army.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 13, 2025 at 7:40 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Just thinking about my dear friends in Ukraine.
— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Here’s Patron (@patronthedog.bsky.social), the explosives sniffing dog, teaching Ukrainian children about the dangers of unexploded Russian landmines. The program was funded by USAID.
— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) February 3, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam for your comment at the top, & for your persistence w/ this series for so long!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
lamh47
That press conference was an embrassment.
Adam, you already know foreign policy ain’t my thing, but even I manage to hear about that presser…smh
Ohio Mom
Adam, as long as we are discussing freaking out about the Musk/Trump/Vought administration, I’m going to repeat my request for you to do a post on what we should do now. I don’t mean organizing or protesting, I mean the other morning Kay (Kay! One of our most pragmatic commentators) was saying she was beginning to understand why her grandmother treasured her gold jewelry.
If you tell me that buying gold is my best bet, I’m on it. But something tells me it isn’t. How does one go about living a good life in a dictatorship, or whatever we are heading for?
Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: I haven’t forgotten. I’m still trying to think through what I could write that could be posted.
Adam L Silverman
@lamh47: It was a mess.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Parfigliano
Thanks Adam.
lamh47
@Adam L Silverman: this whole exchange was an embarassment.
YY_Sima Qian
I do wish I can share your confidence in the solidity of European support for Ukraine, even among some of the members of the group you listed.
Here is a striking survey from the ECFR of European popular sentiments regarding the FP challenges they face, strong pluralities are quite ready for “compromise settlement” to “end” the War in Ukraine, as both the most likely outcome & the one best for their countries.
Since popular opinion on FP typically follows elite opinion, this is perhaps trailing indicator of where European elite opinion has already been trending (w/ much cross-national diversity, of course).
Also strike are their attitudes toward the US, Russia & the PRC. The relative lack of Russo-skepticism is perhaps unsurprising in Hungary, but Romania & Bulgaria?! In a year a slight majority of Europeans have gone from seeing the US as an ally to a “necessary” partner. A fairly strong plurality sees the PRC as “necessary partner”, while another strong group sees the PRC as a rival competitor (though probably through the economic than natsec lens, leading to different assessments & responses to the challenge).
& the survey results date from Nov. 2024, so after Trump’s election, but before the Trump Administration has started throwing bombs everywhere. The survey results from this Nov. could be quite different, yet again.
I am sure there will eventually be a European backlash (outside of the reactionary elements) to naked MAGA hegemony, but I don’t think we can take it for granted that it will be in the form of unflinching support for Ukraine.
Yutsano
Someone should ask Hegseth how Putin’s dick tastes in his mouth.
I don’t want Polish blood to be spilled in Ukraine, but I can absolutely see how Poland would be more than willing to take up arms to defend Ukraine. It honestly could turn the war on its head. Plus Poland has been through this shit so many times that taking out a potential Russian invasion force is existential.
Oh and Adam you forgot the Poland picture. You know the one I’m talking about.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: posted on the previous open thread that USS Harry S. Truman has collided w/ a 53K to bulk carrier in the Mediterranean.
The slow decay of the USN surface fleet over the past decade & half continues apace.
Gin & Tonic
Hegseth: “Over four years, there was no Russian aggression from 2016 to 2020.”
Gin & Tonic: “Say that to the families of the Ukrainian soldiers killed in Donetsk and Luhansk.”
Rusty
Thank you for continuing to post and providing thoughtful reflection on the war and related foreign policy.
MobiusKlein
@Gin & Tonic: Didn’t Russia do stuff in Syria too during that time?
Gin & Tonic
Adam, with everything going on plus hall monitor duties, I am grateful you still also find time for the Georgia updates.
Gin & Tonic
@MobiusKlein:
Yes.
JaySinWA
@Ohio Mom: I don’t know about living a good life in a dictatorship, but one thing all of us can invest in that is useful for a number of reasons is a stockpile of emergency food, water and other essential things in case things go south for any reason. Natural disasters will happen whether FEMA exists or not. Political disasters either on top of that or separately may make preparedness an essential element. I personally think canned food is one of those things that are better than dehydrated stuff because they contain their own water that will likely be scarce and the shelf life (as opposed to the best used by date) is is several years.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/shashj/status/1890075776743297271#m
Ohio Mom
@Adam L Silverman: I underestimated how hard an assignment I gave you. As long as I know you got my message.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/chris_komatsu/status/1889859683411697959#m
Jay
@Jay:
Oh, BTW, the leader of the Free World is Ukraine and Zelenskii
karen gail
Thanks Adam.
I am still baffled that anyone believes that Trump is a dealmaker and businessman; one can never forget that he managed to bankrupt a casino. Even if it was simply money laundering it should have been nearly impossible to bankrupt; the odds always favor the house yet he managed to fail. I also fail to see how anyone can call him “leader of free world” since he has no clue about leading.
The Unmitigated Gaul
@Ohio Mom: New Zealand awaits you.
Ken B
Traditionally, one of the biggest things the US has bought to the NATO table has been logistics and supply capabilities.
Have the Europeans managed to develop their own capabilities to the extent that they could prosecute an aggressive ground war against Russia?
Are they pursuing that capability if they lack one?
Leto
Whelp. This was yesterday.
Watch moment US fighter jet crashes into San Diego Bay
Jay
@Ken B:
As we have discovered, US logistics and supply have atrophied.
Only 34% of US “announced” supplies have reached Ukraine, while 100% of other NATO and other allies arrived when claimed
The EU and all other nations issue is the same as the WWI shell shortage, manufacturing has not kept up with demand in a modern war, and companies are loath to amp production, with out contracts.
In the US, 34% and up of increased contract funding has gone to corporate stock buybacks, to keep stock artificially high.
Gretchen
@Ohio Mom: My mother used to say that I needed a good engagement ring so I had something I could hock if I needed to run. She was a child of the Depression and WWII.
I have a Jewish friend who has had a safe with jewelry, coins, and plenty of cash, just in case. I’m starting to think she’s onto something.
I don’t usually keep much cash, but am starting to think that if someone could take down the cash/credit machines, that would be a problem.
Chris
That gives me some hope.
SC54HI
Thank you, Adam. Really appreciate your daily summaries and especially your thoughts on everything.
Sally
@Gin & Tonic: And all their African ops.
Jay
@Chris:
Between Hegseth and Dolt47, Europe is doing the polite talk while fuming
Yesterday was a combat course. Pop up targets, pretty basic, not building clearing or anything too technical, just run, shoot reload.
Got off early while others had to repeat, went back to the books and online.
The Range Masters had fun though.
In WWII it was black and white versions of either a Nazi or a Japanese soldier, charging at you with a bayonet, that you shot at. Shooting at images of what might be people apparently makes difference in conditioning.
In the 60’s to 90’s the target became a So-Be-It profile, different helmet, AK with a bayonet.
In the ‘aughts, it became either So-Be-It, (Chinese, ruZZians, Serbs, etc, or Muj.
So yesterday, the target’s were ‘Mercans, in full colour reprints, velcro flags on shoulders, full gear, red white and blue safety tape on helmets and arms.
Full colour made it much more real.
Nettoyeur
I am a physicist who has spent the last 50 years working on fusion energy. I have never done nuclear weapons work, but am generally familiar with what is involved. I have worked on projects in a number other countries, including Russia and Ukraine, and I speak Russian. If I were a science advisor in Ukraine or any of the frontline NATO countries (including Germany), I would advocate that they work together to develop a nuclear deterrent of their own that is independent of the US, UK, or French govts. I am no warmonger, nor am I anti-Russian (on the contrary) , but it’s the only way to face down Putin , whose polilcies have reverted to those of the Mongol Horde. It’s crunch time, a matter of life or death. I would note that the Soviet nuclear program was born in Kharkhov under the leadership of Igor Kurchatov and that Ukrainians developed T-34 tank at the outset of WWII and the heavy rocket booster motors that powered the Soviet space program. So this is feasible. Trump won’t like this at all, but it’s a direct consequence of his betrayal.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
frosty
@Gretchen: It’s good to keep some cash on hand just for power failures that take the ATMs out. It might take your whole stash to buy the eggs for breakfast!
Jay
@frosty:
Who can afford eggs in the US?
$2.99 CDN at Safeway this am. 12 whole eggs, range free, organic.
There were only about 177 12 pacs there.
ColoradoGuy
A few comments about gold. I hold a small position, bought when Condoleeza Rice was made Sec of State. I figured that was a guarantee things would get fucked up, considering her track record, and sure enough, they did.
Gold is mostly a hedge against all markets falling together, as well as behaving somewhat like a commodity metal, since it is also used for jewelry and is useful for non-corroding electrical connectors. When people worldwide get nervous, they buy US Treasuries and gold, and flee the stock markets. With Elon playing footsie with the US Treasury, that might strengthen gold.
Gold is tricky to hold. It is extremely risky having it in your house, and US bank safety deposit boxes are not secure from arbitrary police or government seizure. Some banks sell what is “paper” gold, which is nothing more than a promise to redeem it when requested. A bank with “paper” gold might not have any physical reserves of gold at all. There is no FDIC insurance for gold, of course, so if the bank goes under, you lose it all.
I have a non-anonymous account with a Swiss bank, who accept US depositors, provided you can prove to them that the money is legit (Swiss are very touchy about this). They tell me the physical gold is in Zurich, in a nuclear-proof underground vault. That might sound over-the-top, but the Swiss take banking very seriously, since it is a big part of their economy. Swiss banking laws are far stricter than the USA.
American banks usually only accept deposits in US dollars, but many European banks accept several currencies, often Euros, dollars, pounds, Swiss francs, and gold. I’d ask around, ask if the gold is “paper” gold or if the bank actually has 100% of the gold in-house, and see what restrictions the bank imposes on US customers. Otherwise, you’re stuck with having physical gold in your house, which is really not a good idea. Keep in mind that gold is really heavy, so it’s not easy to move around.
A useful middle ground might be Swiss francs, which is probably the hardest currency in the world. A mixed Euro/Swiss franc portfolio might be a good hedge, plus it would be available overseas if things get really weird in the USA. Keep in mind that Chinese Yuan are not freely convertible, unlike USD, Euros, pounds, or gold.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Brava Zelensky for NOT signing that damned deal. IMHO he shouldn’t attend the Munich conference; send representatives, sure, but NOT go himself. Call it a pipe dream.
Another pipe dream is Ukraine spending the entire weekend blowing up whatever Russian oil & military facilities that are within their reach, finishing off by finally dropping that damned bridge.
FYI, there are a lot of guns in Canada mostly in the hands of hunters. Just saying.
Thank you Adam, especially given how unmanageable this lot can get.
wjca
An initial look shows that a) the US ships (both the Truman and the accompanying destroyer) were not running their AIS transponder, which is supposed to be on when they are in congested areas, and b) the freighter was on a normal course thru heavy traffic (including vessels stopped waiting for transit). In contrast, the Truman appreas, to my inexpert eye, to have been way out of its lane.
VeniceRiley
@Jay: A friend who lives on Tenerife reports 2€ there for a box of eggs. Not the cheapest place to live in Spain, either!
Other prices there, she writes:
COSTS.
Something I’ve noticed over my time here is that American friends are spending insane amounts of money on everything. Now, maybe Spain is in a very fortunate place, but the prices I hear coming out of the States just boggles my mind.
I’m going to include some general examples to give you an idea of cost of living around here, and honestly Tenerife is one of the pricier regions of Spain. However, even Madrid and famously expensive Barcelona or San Sebastian seem to be worlds away from what Americans are spending on life these days.
First of all, Canary residents are very lucky because there is a 75% discount on all flights and ferries within Spain. This makes travel around Spain very easy, but even for those who are not Canaries, it’s not too bad.
EXAMPLES:
Can of local beer, .30.
Bottle of decent local wine, starts at 2-3 Euros.
Breakfast menu including drink, sandwich, coffee, 3 Euros.
Can of Coke, .80.
Week’s holiday at a hotel, starts at 150 per week, and goes up from there.
Menu del dia, including drink, coffee, three courses, 8 Euros.
Baguette, .50.
Pack of cigarettes, 4-5 Euros for brand names.
Sack of potatoes, 1.40.
Flight to other cities, starts at around 5 Euros and goes up from there (without discount).
Bus and tram, varies, but free after a certain number of trips.
Any questions about cost of living over here, let me know!
Prices have definitely gone up over the years, but this is a general overview.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It does seem like substance abuse is the over riding qualification to be part of the Trump administration.
Joey Maloney
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Either substance or women, preferably both.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: Thanks for the additional background. The incident is mind boggling. This after 2 USN destroyers hit freighters in the same year (2017) in the Pacific, & a USN nuclear sub collided w/ a sea mount in the South China Sea (2021), not to mention losing an amphibious assault ship to disastrous fire at the pier while under maintenance (2020).
Doug
It’s been a while since I popped in to comment on one of these threads, but this one snagged my attention.
I lived in Tbilisi for 3.5 years (mid-2008 (just before the war) through the end of 2011) and saw at least two, maybe more of the longish occupations of the city’s main boulevard. It would be a bit like occupying Pennsylvania Avenue and maybe the Mall in Washington. I have brave Georgian friends who are out there practically every night, and who are accumulating unjust fines assessed by the police. Unfortunately, I don’t think they’re going to dislodge the current parliament, let alone the power behind the throne. They nearly did, early on, but since then it has settled into something of a routine, to street theater. (Georgian theater is great! Go see some even if you don’t speak any of the language.) Saakashvili used a combination of patience and limited concessions to outlast the rounds of street protests that I was around for. It looks like the more time passes from the precipitating outrage, the lower the chances of achieving a critical mass for sweeping changes.
Also, the protesters have never attempted to go up the hill to the complex where the oligarch overseeing all of this lives. His lair literally overlooks the square (which is roundish) and then the boulevard that are the centers of protest. The boulevard is not a bad choice: parliament is there, and it’s the symbolic heart of the city. But up on the hill is the real Bastille to storm; getting rid of the oligarch’s minions is eventually going to require getting rid of the oligarch.
On a different front, I think that a separate nuclear deterrant for Central Europe is about to become a live possibility. In 1991, newly independent Ukraine did not have the state capacity to maintain the nuclear infrastructure that the USSR had placed there. As I understand it, the forces had never been under any sort of Ukrainian SSR supervision but had always been under All-Union (i.e., Moscow’s) control. Any attempt at local control would have more likely led to the kind of “loose nukes” scenario that gave people engaged with the region in the 1990s so many nightmares. But the Finns have one of the world’s most efficient nuclear industries; Sweden moved last year to lift its ban on uranium mining; Poland’s economy has more than doubled this century; Ukraine has shown the need. Means, motive, opportunity. It’s 1940s technology. Politics and price have kept Europeans besides the UK and France from building a deterrent. But now Trump is busy showing that the US umbrella is leaky as hell and might fold entirely, while the war in Ukraine has shown how much more the alternative to a deterrent can cost.
One of the few things that Trump & Co. have been consistent about in 2016 has been selling out Ukraine. Pretty much the only thing they cared about getting into the R platform in that year was a ban on lethal aid for Ukraine. So I expect that they will give Putin everything and blame the Ukrainians for not liking it.
The Ukrainian side might take something because three years of war on your home turf is a long time. But it will be what the Germans call a Feuerpause — a break in the firing — and not a Waffenruhe — stilling the weapons. Both Russia and Ukraine will take any pause negotiated now as a time to recuperate and re-arm, to prepare for the next round that will come.
Best to all from snowy Berlin.
Ramalama
Adam, are you at all nervous about advising Poland, Canada, and other allies? Potentially catching any ire from Trumpalos?
Jim Appleton
Missing outrage here and ongoing is that the US has suddenly, though not unexpectedly, become untrustworthy. That’s going to change our lives, permanently, in ways we don’t imagine.
Adam L Silverman
@Ramalama: I’ve done this as either a Department of the Army civilian or as a contracted subject matter expert working for the US military. In all cases it was part of my assigned duties. The three Canadian generals I advised were assigned to either US Army Corps as deputy commanding generals or a Combatant Command as deputy joint director. The one I taught was at USAWC for his senior leader college. Same for the Polish GO, though I was both his front line supervisor/faculty advisor and his research supervisor.
I don’t really care about ire from the Trumpalos. These are the jobs the US military assigned me to do. I did them. In each of them I exceeded standards and have the awards and citations and medals to prove it. I’m a professional and I know that is a problem for them, but that is their problem. Because I’m a professional is the reason I ultimately turned down the offer of a senior political appointment at either OSD or the NSC during his first term, after initially indicating in DEC 2016 that I would take one, when I was asked in APR 2017 if I’d heard anything by the person who had put me in for the appointment. At that point I’d see enough with the Flynn debacle and treatment of Mattis and McMaster to know I would not be a good fit.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jim Appleton: I’ve been imagining it since Jan 20. As soon as he cut off funding meetings for science and medical research, and cut USAID, I was aware we’d just cut off a big chunk of our soft power. There’s a lot to imagine, layers of potential repercussions but it it is rather like imagining the unimaginable.
dnfree
@Jim Appleton: In May 2024 we took a tour of the part of Italy around Florence. At one point I had a conversation with our guide and he asked me if I thought there were any Trump supporters in our small tour group. I told him that we hadn’t discussed politics but that I doubted it.
The guide told me that January 6 2021 had convinced him and his friends that the American dream was over. “Transfer of power in the United States has always been peaceful!”, he said.
I’ve thought of him often since the November election and I’m embarrassed to even contemplate what he must think now.
Miss Bianca
@Jay: yow. that’s…chilling.
(Not the good kind of chilling. The other kind.)