Robert Bresnahan (R-PA) won the 8th Pennsylvania district in 2024 over the Democratic incumbent Cartwright by 6252 votes and 1.6% margin. He is, by definition, one of the most marginal Republicans in the House majority. He benefited from a national political environment that was slightly leaning GOP nationally and was running as a challenger a district that voted for Trump by 9 points. He barely got over the finish line. In 2026, the district will be the same, but the electorate through a combination of typical mid-term shift against a trifecta AND electorate composition (Democrats voting base is far more likely to turn out at a higher rate in lower salience elections now as it is heavily college educated) will likely be far bluer. He will have the power of incumbency but he is likely in a barn-burner of a race.
Rob Bresnahan is the newly-elected Republican Congressman from PA-08, which is a swing seat.
— Magdi Jacobs (@magdi.bsky.social) February 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Right now, assuming perfect attendance and a unified Democratic party in opposition, Johnson can afford one Republican to vote PRESENT. He can not afford one Republican to vote NO.
The fulcrum point is the House. Republicans who won their seats in 2024 by less than 5 points needed to be put under enough pressure that they pop like a pre-prom zit.
Call, write and visibly engage at town hall meetings — keep it up.
WaterGirl
I just noticed that Dave had this scheduled for about half an hour ago, so I moved the post time to now and hit publish.
Jeffro
This is the way.
when the pain gets bad enough, the House GOP members will be the ones to crack. Not many, but enough.
Steve LaBonne
I need to get in Max Miller’s face. He’s a piece of shit but possibly not too insane to feel pressure.
Allen Henderson
All I do on Bluesky lately is tag Jeffries with my really good ideas for how he can lead. I’m totally his new best friend. (Schumer too but this is about the House).
sab
@Steve LaBonne: His personal life is appallingly sad, and Bernie Moreno our Senator is his father inlaw, tearing his life apart.
Ohio Mom
My Rep is my only Democratic Congresscritter. I call his office now and again and thank them, tell them to keep up the good work.
Steve LaBonne
@sab: All three persons involved deserve one another.
Ohio Mom
@sab: He had escaped my notice so I goggled him. Yes, he has had a mess of a life, all the result of not luck but his horrible judgement. Losing the next election would be good for him (he might need a knock or two to inspire him to re-examine his life and life choices), and would be good for our country.
Nukular Biskits
Emphasis mine there.
I can’t speak for others, but MS GOP elected officials, both at the state and federal level, simply aren’t interested in holding town hall meetings.
They won’t risk being challenged publicly, in front of cameras and mics, by angry constituents.
As far as I can tell, neither of my US Senators, Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde-Smith, have EVER held any type of open-to-the-public forum since they’ve taken office.
My US Rep, Mike Ezell, has AFAIK held only two townhall meetings (as he defined them) since taking office, both in the middle of the day and way out in the nether regions of his district where/when he knew most working stiffs would not be able to attend. And this is even more hypocritical given he ran against the then-incumbent Steven “No-Show” Palazzo (R-of course) who refused to engage with the public.
And that’s why I plan on visiting their respective Gulfport offices next week.
Geminid
@Ohio Mom: Max Miller won Anthony Gonzalez’s old seat. Gonzalez was one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in early 2021. Four lost primaries and four including Gonzalez retired. Two– David Valedeo (CA) and Dan Newhouse (WA)– survived; being in jungle primary states probably helped in their cases.
Kay
While the Washington, D.C., area is known for its concentration of government workers, the reality is that America’s 2.3 million federal employees are scattered across the country
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/federal-workers-doge-job-cuts-maps-988416ec?st=h7X6dJ&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
More than half of the 100 House districts with the most federal workers are held by the GOP
*excludes postal workers and military
NotMax
@Kay
Fix’d.
RevRick
@Ohio Mom: Thank yous are often more important and motivating than ceaseless criticism. So thank you for being so supportive.
meander
I’m in Michigan’s 7th District, where Republican Tom Barrett won an open seat in November*, with 50.3% of the vote, 46.6 for the lackluster Dem, and 3.2 for a Libertarian (Gaza protest votes?). The 7th District contains Michigan State University, the state capital Lansing, but also infamous Howell, and evangelical stronghold Brighton. In a recent article Barrett was quoted as speaking against deep cuts in social programs in a GOP meeting. He wrote a post on X celebrating Black History Month. Maybe he can be pressured. I’m writing frequent letters.
* previously held by now-Senator Slotkin, who has been disappointing at times, voting for Noem, the Laken-Riley bill, and a few other Trump appointees. But also voted no on the worst — Hesgeth, RFK, the Russian agent Gabbard.
mvr
Don Bacon in NE2 (Omaha) barely beat Tony Vargas, and Kamala Harris took the EV in that district. He’s another one to pressure. I live in NE1 and actually got one of those relatively attentive response letters to a phone call to my Representative Flood last week. So they are definitely hearing from constituents. Both of those guys are worth calling.
RaflW
I’m assuming we have at least some CO-08 folks here on Balloon Juice (northeast Denver area up to Greely).
Gabe Evans beat Yadira Caraveo in a very tight race that flipped the district. Flip it back in ’26!! And meanwhile, heat up his in-box and his phone line (202) 225-5625.
TBone
Nothing for nothing, but mostly Luzerne County is not great. Bresnahan hometown bonafides. Home of Russell Bufalino as well as the infamous Kids for Cash PA judges scandal. Just a heads up on that – it produces great criminals.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Bufalino
NotMax
@TBone
Used to live in Pike county. Out of curiosity looked it up. Population of the entire county now ~3200, double what it was when resided there during the seventies.
;)
NotMax
Saturday, (10:15 p.m.?) on TCM – Cat Ballou. If you’ve never seen it and can access TCM, hie thee hither.
Might want to double check the time as the TCM web site has become wonky for those of us in Hawaii. Any confirmation or correction will be appreciated.
sab
@NotMax: Wow. It has been decades since I saw that. I might even get the guy who got the remote in our prenup to watch it.
TBone
@NotMax: I will be awake for Noah’s feeding so I might actually get a chance to watch it again, woo hoo! A benefit!
TBone
@NotMax: we had a population splosion!
Racer X
“…where I come from, people keep their word” is a good tagline. Unfortunately his constituents voted for a felon who lies as easily as he breathes. His party does not respect honesty, truth, justice or integrity. Nice tagline though.