At 6:45 PM EST/1:45 AM local time in Ukraine, almost all of eastern and central Ukraine is under air raid alert for drone swarms.
A quick correction that actually sets up tonight’s update. After I’d done last night’s update, Josh Rogin updated his reporting regarding what President Zelenskyy told the bipartisan CODEL. This was the original reporting, which got screen shotted onto Bluesky:
there are so many things wrong with this
— Adam Keiper (@adamkeiper.com) February 14, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Here’s the updates, I’m going to copy and paste the text from the second and third tweets from his tweet thread:
UPDATE: After a lot more reporting, I have a lot more detail. This plan, which I have now seen, was presented to Zelensky by U.S. Ambassador Bridget Brink several days ago, in advance of Secretary Bessent’s trip to Kyiv. Zelensky told the lawmakers about it today… 1/2
2/2 In today’s meeting with U.S. lawmakers, Zelensky was telling them about this paper, which many of them didn’t already know about, not the other way around. Z said he could not sign it because it didn’t contain any security guarantees for Ukraine. Apologies for any confusion.
UPDATED, NEW DETAILS: US deal was given to Zelensky only just before he met Treasury Sec Bessent in Kyiv. It was dated Feb. 7, 2025, & only referenced US getting Ukrainian resources in exchange for past military aid, & didn’t contain proposals for similar future assistance www.ft.com/content/b08b…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 15, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Another sticking point is the doc’s specification that New York be the jurisdiction in which disputes over the mineral rights are resolved. Kyiv did not believe the proposal was enforceable under New York law.
www.ft.com/content/b08b…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 15, 2025 at 11:03 AM
US ambassador Bridget Brink first presented Zelensky and his team with the US minerals deal just before Bessent’s arrival in Kyiv, sources familiar told me. They said she made clear to Zelensky he was expected to sign the deal during Bessent’s visit.
www.ft.com/content/b08b…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 15, 2025 at 11:03 AM
From The Financial Times:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected a US bid to take ownership of around 50 per cent of the rights to his country’s rare earth minerals and is trying to negotiate a better deal, according to several people familiar with the matter.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Zelenskyy the deal during a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, which came after President Donald Trump suggested the US was owed half a trillion dollars’ worth of Ukraine’s resources in exchange for its assistance to the war-torn country.
Zelenskyy wants American and European security guarantees to be tied directly to any deal on the mineral reserves, according to four people familiar with the US-Ukraine negotiations.
He is also keen for other countries, including EU states, to be involved in future natural resource exploitation.
But the deal proposed by Trump and delivered by Bessent only referenced the US getting Ukrainian resources in exchange for past military assistance, and did not contain any proposals for similar future assistance, according to a person familiar with the document.
“We are still talking,” Zelenskyy said in Munich on Saturday. “I have had different dialogues.”
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the conference, Zelenskyy said it was “not in our interests today . . . not in the interests of sovereign Ukraine” to agree to the US deal as it currently stands.
A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv was “trying to negotiate a better deal”.
During his visit to the presidential office in Kyiv this week Bessent brought a document that Trump wanted Zelenskyy to sign before Bessent returned to Washington, according to five people familiar with the matter.
Speaking to reporters before he and Zelenskyy discussed the deal privately for roughly an hour, Bessent described it as an “economic agreement” with Kyiv to “further intertwine our economies”.
The Trump administration would “stand to the end [with Kyiv] by increasing our economic commitment” which would “provide a long-term security shield for all Ukrainians” once Russia’s war is over, Bessent said.
“When we looked at the details there was nothing there [about future US security guarantees],” another Ukrainian official told the FT.
Asked whether it was a bad deal for Ukraine, a third Ukrainian official familiar with the proposal said it was “a Trump deal”. “This is Trump dealmaking,” the official said. “It’s tough.”
Ukraine’s main concern is the lack of connection to broader security guarantees, according to three people who have reviewed the proposal.
Ukrainian officials asked how the agreement would contribute to their country’s long-term security, but were only told it would ensure an American presence on Ukrainian soil — a vague response that left key questions unanswered, those people said.
PoliticoEU has more: (emphasis mine)
“The deal was not signed yet. Sides are discussing the details,” said a Ukrainian official familiar with the negotiations who was granted anonymity to discuss ongoing talks. “Lawyers are working on it. In their draft, the U.S. has described a very complicated way how they want to get 50 percent [of Ukraine’s rare earths].”
The official added that the U.S. scheme “might not work” as it could fall afoul of Ukrainian law.
But the draft deal may contain legal snares, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told POLITICO.
He said Trump has no legal right to Ukraine’s raw minerals as Kyiv signed a strategic partnership with the EU in 2021 on them.
“Today, Trump claims Ukraine’s raw materials as a way to fuel America’s economy. But these raw materials are not only Ukrainian, they’re also European.,” Kuleba said. “Why should Europe give away the resources that should fuel its own economy to America?”
One of the lead architects of the proposal, Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, said he is dangling Ukraine’s mineral wealth in front of the president to persuade him that Ukraine is worth protecting — even pulling out a map to show Trump where Ukraine’s riches are located.
“The main thing for me is that Ukraine has value — literally has value,” Graham said at a POLITICO Pub event on the sidelines of the Munich conference. “Trump now sees Ukraine differently … I said these people are sitting on a gold mine … I showed him a map, ‘look!’”
Oh goody, Lindsey Graham had an idea, which explains why it’s “very complicated.”
Where does this leave things? With the Trump folks sending mixed messages and once again demonstrating that America first is America alone.
Several times this week Hegseth and Vance made it clear that Ukraine is now Europe’s problem and that Europe needed to step up to take care of itself and Ukraine. Now, Kellogg has decided that Europe need no be involved in ending Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine.
⚡️Europe won’t participate in peace negotiations, but its interests to be considered, Kellogg says.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Kellogg mentioned the Minsk II deal of 2015, saying that it involved “a lot of people” but didn’t work out.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) February 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said on Feb. 15 that Europe will not be directly involved in negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, but its interests will be considered.
Kellogg’s remarks come as the Trump administration is trying to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he aims to end the war as soon as possible but has not outlined specific steps to do so.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Kellogg mentioned the Minsk II deal of 2015, which aimed to end Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and involved Germany and France alongside Ukraine and Russia.
“There were a lot of people at the table, but it didn’t work out,” Kellogg said. That’s why Europe will not be involved in the negotiations, but its interests will be taken into account, he added.
Kellogg also stressed that Russia’s war against Ukraine could end even this year, pledging to “engage all parties” in 180 days to try to achieve this.
Kellogg said that Trump “will not give up important interests,” adding that the U.S. will continue to help Ukraine, but “the killing must be stopped.”
The Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized that it views the U.S. as its “main counterpart” in efforts to end the war.
Zelensky said that he wants European allies to be involved in peace negotiations. Kyiv insists that no talks about Ukraine and ending Russia’s war should be held without Ukraine.
You know you’re in the wrong place as a US senior natsec official when this happens:
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated at the Munich Conference that Europe must be involved in negotiations to end the Ukraine-Russia war. He emphasized that all parties must join the peace process to achieve stability in Europe, according to Reuters.
www.reuters.com/world/china-…
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Trump, Vance, Hegseth, and Kellogg keep giving Putin exactly what he wants. By the time they get to Saudi next week, they’ll be nothing to negotiate as they’ll have given it all away before they ever got there.
Any negotiations about peace in Ukraine without Ukraine and Europe are inherently senseless. If Washington’s position is that Ukraine is solely a European security concern, then the idea of establishing a new security paradigm in Europe without Europe and Ukraine is illogical
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 2:59 PM
So you’re telling me that Europe has spent over $140 billion in Ukriane aid, will have to take the lead in deterring Russia in the future, will have to deploy its militaries as peacekeepers AND, amid that, it’s not getting a say in talks with Putin?
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 1:29 PM
That’s quite interesting, I would even say, a groundbreaking and revolutionarily masterful negotiation strategy.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 1:29 PM
During his speech at the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky stated that he would not remove the issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership from the negotiation table, and also remarked that it seems as though Putin is the most influential member of NATO, holding the decisive vote.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address to the Munich Security Conference. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I Really Believe That Time Has Come: The Armed Forces of Europe Must Be Created – Speech by the President at the Munich Security Conference
15 February 2025 – 14:45
Thank you very much! Thank you so much!
Thank you for your words! Thank you for your support! Thank you for the invitation.
Dear ladies and gentlemen!
At the start of the Conference, every country usually shares its stance, priorities, whether officially, openly or through informal talks with journalists, with partners.
And, this year, a country that was not even invited still made its presence known. A country that everyone talks about here – not in a good way.
The night before Munich this year, a Russian attack drone struck the sarcophagus covering the ruined fourth reactor of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
It was a modified “Shahed” drone – a Russian drone, a technology Iran passed on to Russia. Its warhead carried at least 50 kilograms of explosives.
And we see this as a deeply symbolic move by Russia, by Putin.
Just recently, in Ukraine, we discussed the crucial role of nuclear energy in keeping the country running despite Russia’s constant attacks on our Ukrainian energy infrastructure. We are now preparing a project to expand our Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant – just one day before the Munich I was there, on the plant – with involvement from American businesses, including Westinghouse. The project will strengthen the energy security of not just Ukraine, but our entire region of Europe.
And we also recently spoke with President Trump and his team about nuclear energy and Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – our Zaporizhzhia plant, which is currently occupied by Russia.
And Russia responded – by sending a drone to hit Chornobyl’s sarcophagus, which holds radioactive dust and debris.
And this is not just madness. This is Russia’s stance.
A country that launches such attacks does not want peace. Not. They don’t want it. It is not preparing for dialogue.
Almost every day, Russia sends up to a hundred, even more “Shahed” drones at us. Each day. And regular ballistic missile attacks. And a steady increase in aerial bomb strikes. But that’s not all.
This year, Moscow plans to create 15 new divisions, adding up to 150,000 soldiers. That’s more than the national armies of most European countries.
Russia keeps opening new army recruitment centers every week. And Putin can afford it – oil prices are still high enough for him to ignore the world.
And we have clear intel that this summer, Russia plans to send troops to Belarus under the pretext of “training exercises”. But that’s exactly how they staged forces before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
Is this Russian force in Belarus meant to attack Ukraine?
Maybe. Or maybe not. Or maybe – it’s meant for you.
Let me remind you: Belarus borders three NATO countries. It has effectively become a foothold for Russian military operations.
According to both Putin and Lukashenko, Belarus now hosts banned weapons – medium-range missiles and even nuclear arms.
Putin clearly sees Belarus as just another Russian province now.
And we need to be realistic – if someone is setting up a military launchpad, we need to ask: what should we do about it?
And more importantly: what can we do before the next attack, the next invasion?
Remember, there have already been provocations on the Polish and Lithuanian borders with Belarus migrant crises, staged by Russian intelligence to stir up chaos in Europe.
But what if, next time, it’s not migrants? What if it’s Russian troops? Or North Korean troops?
Make no mistake – North Koreans are not weak. They are learning how to fight now, how to fight the modern war.
And what about your armies? Are they ready?
And if Russia launches a false flag operation or just straight up with no insignia from Belarus – like how Crimea got taken in 2014 – how fast will the allies respond? And will they respond at all?
Yesterday here in Munich, the U.S. Vice President made it clear: decades, he said, decades of the old relationship between Europe and America are ending. From now on, things will be different, and Europe needs to adjust to that.
Ladies and gentlemen!
I believe in Europe. And I’m sure you believe too. And I urge you to act – for your own sake, and for the sake of Europe – people of Europe, your nations, your houses, your children, and our shared future. For this Europe has to become self-sufficient – united by common strength, Ukrainian and European.
Right now, Ukraine’s army, supported by global aid – thank you so much – is holding back Russia. But if not us, then who will stop them? Really! Let’s be honest – now we can’t rule out the possibility that America might say “No” to Europe on issues that threaten it.
Many, many leaders have talked about Europe that needs its own military, and army – an Army of Europe.
And I really believe that time has come. The Armed Forces of Europe must be created.
This is not harder than standing firm against Russian attacks – as we have already done.
But this isn’t just about increasing defense spending as a GDP ratio. Money is needed, of course, yes – but money alone won’t stop an enemy assault. People and weapons don’t come for free, but again it’s not just about budgets. It’s about people realizing the need to defend their own home.
Without Ukraine’s army, Europe’s armies will not be enough to stop Russia. It’s a reality for today. Only our army in Europe has real, modern battlefield experience.
But our army alone is not enough too. And we need what you can provide. Weapons. Training. Sanctions. Financing. Political pressure. And unity.
Three years of full-scale war have proven that we already have the foundation for a united European military force. And now, as we fight this war and lay the groundwork for peace and security, we must build the Armed Forces of Europe.
So that Europe’s future depends only on Europeans, and decisions about Europe are made in Europe.
That’s why we are talking with European leaders and with the United States about military contingents that can ensure peace, and not just in Ukraine, but across Europe. And that’s why we’re developing joint weapons production, especially drones. Especially.
The Danish model, for example, of pooled investments for arms production in our country is already working well, very, very, very successful. Last year alone, thanks to Ukrainian and partner efforts, we produced over 1.5 million drones of various types. Ukraine is now the world leader in drone warfare. This is our success. But it’s also your success. Of course. And everything we build for our own defense in Ukraine also strengthens your security. And the same should apply to artillery, air defense, technologies, and armored vehicles.
Everything needed to protect lives in modern war should be produced in Europe – fully. Europe has everything it takes. Europe just needs to come together and start acting in a way that no one can say “No” to Europe, boss it around, or treat it like a pushover.
This isn’t just about stockpiling weapons. It’s about jobs, technological leadership, and economic strength for Europe.
Last fall, in my Victory Plan, I proposed replacing part of the U.S. military presence in Europe with Ukrainian forces – if Ukraine is in NATO of course. If the Americans themselves decide to go that way, decreasing their presence – it’s not good, of course, it’s very dangerous – but we all in Europe need to be ready. And I started discussing this even before the U.S. elections because I could see where American policy was heading. But America needs to see where Europe is heading.
And this direction of European policy shouldn’t just be promising – it should make America want to stand with a strong Europe. This is absolutely possible. I’m sure of it.
And we must shape that course; Europe must decide its own future.
We need confidence in our own strength so that others have no choice but to respect Europe’s power. And without a European army, that is impossible.
Once again: Europe needs its own Armed Forces.
And I know, I know Mark Rutte, my good friend, is listening to me right now. Mark, my friend, this isn’t about replacing the Alliance.
This is about making Europe’s contribution to our partnership equal to America’s.
And we need the same approach when it comes to diplomacy: working together for peace.
Ukraine will never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement. And the same rule should apply to all of Europe.
No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine. No decisions about Europe without Europe. Europe must have a seat at the table when decisions about Europe are being made. Anything else is zero. If we’re left out of negotiations about our own future, then we all lose.
Look at what Putin is trying to do now. This is his game. Putin wants one-on-one talks with America – just like before the war, when they met in Switzerland and looked like to carve up the world.
Next, Putin will try to get the U.S. President standing on Red Square on May 9th this year not as a respected leader, but as a prop in his own performance.
We don’t need that.
We need real success. We need real peace.
Some in Europe may not fully understand what’s happening in Washington right now.
But let’s focus on understanding ourselves – right here, in Europe.
We must give strength to Europe first.
Does America need Europe? As a market – yes. But as an ally? I don’t know.
For the answer to be “Yes”, Europe needs a single voice – not a dozen different ones.
Even those who regularly come to Mar-a-Lago, need to be part of a strong Europe – because President Trump doesn’t like weak friends. He respects strength.
Next.
Some in Europe may be frustrated with Brussels. But let’s be clear – if not Brussels, then Moscow. It’s your decision. That’s geopolitics. That’s history.
Moscow will pull Europe apart if we, as Europeans, don’t trust each other.
A few days ago, President Trump told me about his conversation with Putin. Not once did he mention that America needs Europe at that table. That says a lot. The old days are over – when America supported Europe just because it always had.
But President Trump once said: What matters is not the family you were born into, but the one you build. We must build the closest possible relationship with America, and – yes, a new relationship – but as Europeans, not just as separate nations.
That’s why we need a unified foreign policy – a coordinated diplomacy – the foreign policy of common Europe. And let the end of this war be our first shared success in this new reality.
And we are already working to make sure that on February 24th, the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, we can gather together in Kyiv and online. All European leaders. All key partners who defend our security. From Spain to Finland. From Britain to Poland. from Washington to Tokyo.
This meeting must deliver a clear vision for our next steps – on peace, security guarantees, and the future of our collective policy.
And I do not believe in security guarantees without America – yes, it will be just weak.
But America will not offer guarantees unless Europe’s own guarantees are strong.
I also will not take NATO membership for Ukraine off the table.
But right now, the most influential member of NATO seems to be Putin – because his whims have the power to block NATO decisions. And that’s despite the fact that it was Ukraine’s army that stopped Russia – not a NATO country, not NATO troops, but only our people and our army.
There are no foreign armies fighting on Ukraine’s side in this war. But Putin has lost almost 250,000 soldiers in this war. Over 610,000 have been wounded.
Just in the Battle of Kursk, our troops eliminated nearly 20,000 Russian soldiers. We completely destroyed the North Korean units that Putin had to bring in because his own forces weren’t enough to hold back our counteroffensive. For over six months now, Ukrainians have been holding a foothold inside Russian territory, even though it was Russia that wanted to create a “buffer zone” inside our land, in Ukraine.
I am proud of Ukraine. I am proud of our people.
But now, I ask you – each of you – to honestly answer this question: if Russia came for you, could your army fight the same way?
I don’t want anyone to ever have to find out – God forbid. That’s why we are talking about security guarantees. And that’s why we believe that the core of any security guarantees for Ukraine must be NATO membership. Or – if not that – then conditions that allow us to build another NATO, right here in Ukraine.
Because at some point, there will be a border between war and peace. Where that border is drawn, and how strong it is – is up to us. My proposal: Ukraine’s eastern border, Belarus’s eastern border, the eastern borders of the Baltic states, Finland’s eastern border. That is the strongest security line for all of us in Europe because that is the line of international law.
And do we still remember what international law is?
Let’s be honest, international law – these two words – already sound a bit outdated.
But I believe that Europe’s mission is to make sure international law still matters.
And finally – one last point.
What security guarantees can Putin offer?
Before the war, many doubted whether Ukraine’s institutions could withstand Russian and Putin’s pressure.
But in the end, it was Putin who faced an armed rebellion from within.
He was the one who had to defend his own capital from his own war lords.
That alone shows his weakness.
So what happens to the million Russian troops currently fighting in Ukraine?
Where are they going to fight if not in Ukraine?
This is why we cannot just agree to a ceasefire without real security guarantees, without pressure on Russia, without a system to keep Russia in check.
To fight us, Putin pulled troops from Syria, from Africa, from the Caucasus, even from some part of Moldova. And right now, he faces a shortage of fighting forces.
And if this war ends the wrong way, he will have a surplus of battle-tested soldiers who know nothing but killing and looting.
And that is yet another reason why this war cannot be decided by just a few leaders – not by Trump and Putin, not by me and Putin, not by anyone here in Munich sitting down with Putin alone.
We must apply pressure together – to make real peace.
Putin cannot offer real security guarantees. Not just because he is a liar – but because Russia, in its current state, needs war to hold power together. And the world must be protected from that.
So, first. The Armed Forces of Europe as an upgrade to NATO.
Second. A common European foreign policy.
Third. The level of European cooperation that Washington has to take seriously.
Fourth. International law.
And fifth, keeping all pressure on Russia because that pressure is what guarantees peace, not Putin’s words, not just some papers.
Putin lies. He is predictable. And he is weak.
We must use that – now, not later.
And we must act as Europe and not as a bunch of separate people.
Some say that the New Year comes not on January 1 but with the Munich Security Conference.
This new year starts now – and let it be the year of Europe – united, strong, secure and in peace. Peace for Ukraine. Peace for Europe. Peace for all the world. For all your families.
Thank you so much!
Glory to Ukraine!
Zelensky received a standing ovation as he began speaking in Munich.
“The time has come—European armed forces must be created.”
A stark contrast to yesterday’s lecture on democracy.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 5:17 AM
Georgia:
80th day of continuous protest in Georgia.
Rustaveli Avenue today.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Time-lapse from today. Day 80 non-stop. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 11:12 AM
„No to Russian dictatorship”
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 80— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 11:36 AM
A demonstration is underway in Batumi.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 80📸 Batumelebi
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 10:52 AM
“If you’re going through hell, keep going.”
We will win!
🇬🇪🇪🇺 #GeorgiaProtests Day 80
📸 Ezz Gaber— ⚫️🐦⬛ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@theskyisnotblue.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 1:17 PM
It could not be more disturbing to wake up to the largest critical media outlet, Mtavari Arkhi, unable to broadcast. Other independent media are also having great financial hardships.
I ask our friends and partners to find ways to help fund free media in Georgia.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 7:07 AM
President of Ukraine 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky and the 5th President of Georgia 🇬🇪 Salome Zourabichvili met at the Munich Security Conference.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 5:43 AM
JUST IN: Political prisoner Temur Katamadze who’s on his 30th day of a hunger strike is hospitalized.
Temur is a Turkish citizen of Georgian ethnicity, fully immersed in the cause of Georgia’s liberation. The regime that refused to grant him citizenship now wants to deport him.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Back to Ukraine.
The cost:
Another Georgian, Levan Parkaia, has died fighting against Russia in Ukraine.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:46 PM
To be honest, sometimes it’s a bit funny to see multiple experts and commentators trying to second-guess Trump’s grand strategy and its super-complex double agenda.
The more I see, the more sure I am that it’s just a generator of random phrases and ad hoc moves and that there’s no plan.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Another named official, with very relevant expertise, state that the Baltic Sea cable incidents are not accidental.
Vadm Kaack, chief German Navy.
Quotes low probability and the practical unfeasibility: dragging anchor is violent and impossible to not notice.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 5:55 AM
The mood in Ukraine is a mix of disillusionment with the US and “we told you so” feeling as Europe finally wakes up after three years and starts taking war preparations seriously.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 2:51 PM
These are probably just corrupt business meetings to discuss how to divide up the spoils of Russia taking over Ukraine with American help. Some quisling Ukrainian oligarchs and their peers.
— Garry Kasparov (@garrykasparov.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 2:41 PM
😳🇸🇦 “I saw someone saying that there will be a meeting in Saudi Arabia at the level of the presidents of the US and Russia. Some kind of peace talks. They even put up our flag… I don’t know what this is. This is not serious,” — Zelensky
— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 11:32 AM
I fear the US Rareearther guy and russia are setting a trap for Ukraine, preparing the deal we will not be able to accept similar to what happened in Istanbul in 2022.
Then we will be blamed for “rejecting the peace deal” and abandoned or worse.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 2:58 PM
It’s just an opinion, or rather a fear based on the last few day’s events. I hope I’m wrong
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 2:58 PM
FPV ambush on Russian assault group on ATV. The drone waits patiently on the ground, waiting for the target to appear and then takes off to strike.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Ukrainian helicopter pilots hunting Russian drones.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Strikes on the Russian operators of Orlan drone during the launch preparations. t.me/DIUkraine/5370
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Chornobyl:
Eyewitnessed damage caused by Russian drone at Chornobyl NPP, including Shahed/Geran drone debris. Potential consequences could have been catastrophic. We must hold Russia accountable, not appease it.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Pokrovsk:
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that on February 15, Russian forces intensified their assault operations 2.5-fold in the Pokrovsk sector, bringing the total number of engagements across the frontline to 250. The Defence Forces held their positions, inflicting heavy losses on the fascist forces.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The left bank of the Dnipro, Kherson Oblast:
On the left bank of Kherson, the Ukrainian “Slonyky” crew of the 34th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade discovered and destroyed a Russian ATGM located on the roof of a building, resulting in an epic explosion!
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Toretsk:
Ukrainian soldiers from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully downed seven Zala 421-16 drones, one Orlan-10, and one Supercam on the Toretsk front.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:43 AM
The eastern front (which is like 420 km long):
Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance troops are sending the Russian BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher, along with its loading vehicle and crew, straight to hell on the eastern front.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
In the Zaporizhzhia sector, servicemen of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine neutralised an enemy unmanned aerial vehicle. After the launch of a Russian Orlan drone, Ukrainian soldiers struck with cluster munitions and repeated attacks from FPV drones.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 4:13 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Ukrainian drone operators from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade spotted a Russian mortar cache and passed the coordinates to artillery, which struck and destroyed the target, likely in the Kursk region.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 15, 2025 at 2:46 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.
Happy Valentine’s Day from the Hachiko Vet Van team in eastern Ukraine 💙 This is Musya the cat, who was treated today with your support! 🇺🇦
— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) February 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
Question for the “hive” mind: I need a new back pillow for my bed. The type that looks like the back and arms of a chair. I don’t want to just reorder the same one I’ve had for years. Does anyone have a recommendation for a good one with proper support?
Thanks in advance.
different-church-lady
We’re probably just a few short steps from “…the ambassador assured Zelensky that either his brains — or his signature — would be on the contract.”
different-church-lady
Also: Trump is now quoting Napoleon.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Eolirin
If Europe manages to pull together like Zelensky is pushing for there may be some hope for the world yet.
Jay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
New Deal democrat
I am rapidly coming around to a “maximalist” position: the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, and anyone else willing to join a “coalition of the willing” stations at least tripwire forces on the west side of the Dnieper in Ukraine, in Greenland, and – sigh – Canadian entry points as well. Notify both Putin and T—-p that it’s game on. It’s the only language they understand.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1890857643868074017#m
https://nitter.poast.org/MalcontentmentT/status/1890712839419256879#m
https://nitter.poast.org/ChrisO_wiki/status/1890526838507667514#m
Gin & Tonic
@New Deal democrat: The big river in Ukraine is named the Dnipro.
John Revolta
I wonder what Trump, Mr. Art of the Deal, would say if you suggested to him that he suddenly owed you money for some stuff that you had already given him with no strings or Deals attached?
different-church-lady
@John Revolta: “Fuck you. Pay me.”
Jay
@New Deal democrat:
My “maximalist” position would be that every Ukrainian ally quietly signs Bilateral Defense and Security Agreements. No press releases, just quietly list them on the Government websites.
Then everybody quits NATO, NORAD, 5Eyes, SEATO, Joint Exercises, etc, with the only remaining members of NATO, the US, Slovakia, Hungary, etc.
After that, coproduction agreements are made for weapons systems, because of what use is US hardware, when you need the US’s permission to use it in self defense.
Then, as basing agreements expire, they are not renewed.
Eolirin
@Jay: What really is going to happen if people start using US made weapons without US agreement at this point? Would there even be anyone left to tell or care
And what are they going to do, not sell weapons to the people they’re already looking to cut off?
Jay
@Eolirin:
The key issue would be that weapons, parts, replacements and the supply chain would disappear, with out any comparable replacements. That’s why Poland went with the South Korean K2 Black Panther with Thales, (French) equipment, manufactured under license in Poland, rather than Leopards or Abrams.
It talks a long time to create a non-US Export Control weapons chain.
coin operated
I know I’m echoing what others have said, but my $.02 posted to another social media site:
What happens when the EU decides to abandon NATO and set up internal security agreements because it’s more stable than dealing with a psychotic US administration? Because…those are the conditions the envoys to the Munich Peace Conference are setting up. This will not end well for the US. At all. Off the top of my head, I see BILLIONS in arms deals that would normally be easy gets for US manufacturers going instead to EU interests.
We’re all about to experience Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ with hemp rope, ball gags, and no lube in sight.
I see that Jay @ 14 said the same…only a little less crass ;-)
coin…now on Mint 22.1 and Brave Browser.
funlady75
thank you Adam.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
Kos made a good point the other day that much of the Ukranian mineral wealth is in Donetsk and Luhansk and – well, basically under everywhere that’s covered with Russian boots. Giving THAT part to the US – basically making it available only if the US evicts the Russian occupation force – has a certain appeal.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@different-church-lady: Wake us when he quotes Stalin.
Jay
@Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq):
Naw, Ukraine signs the agreements, once they get worthless Us “security agreements”, (Budapest 2.0, Minsk I, Minsk II) Dolt 47 sells them to the highest bidder. Bidder and team arrive in Ukraine to claim their riches, Ukraine escorts them to the Zero Line, points east, say’s you mining claim is over there, 70 km, good luck with that.
Adam L Silverman
@different-church-lady: Important to remember that Brink is career State Department and a Foreign Service Executive who Biden appointed to be the ambassador to Ukraine.
Adam L Silverman
@different-church-lady: No, he’s quoting a movie about Waterloo made by the Russians.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@Adam L Silverman: So, he IS quoting Stalin.
Huh.
Traveller
@Gin & Tonic: Even more to the point, I want the trip wire be in the left bank of the Dnipro, the Eastern side to a depth of 25 miles, if an agreement is forced on Ukraine.
On a more hopeful note, Trump was forced to abandon his grandulous plans for Gaza in the face of real & honest & steadfast opposition.
A possible deal maybe could be that the US still only provide the arms and replacement parts and intelligence for cash on the barrel…Ukraine only buying essentials components, the EU providing the backbone of support.
This could be enticing to Mr Trump, I don’t know…at least it is a plan. Best Wishes, Traveller
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Thales just announced a coproduction agreement. I’ll have it in tomorrow night’s update. Tonight’s was a bit overstuffed.
Adam L Silverman
@funlady75: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq): We keep making it here. Gin & Tonic, Jay, myself, and others.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@Jay: Inwould ask whether that sale did not constitute fraud but then I recall that’s at the core of every single tRump business.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@Adam L Silverman: The last few weeks have been hectic. Guess I missed those items.
OTOH it sounds like Kos reads BJ, which is a plus.
Adam L Silverman
@Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq): No worries.
Jay
@Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq):
Ukraine has to sign, the “contract” has to conform to Ukrainian laws, EU laws and current contracts,
so, never gonna happen. It’s vaporware.
The Sawdi “Peace Conference” is just going to be Consort Dolt 47’s and Musk Minions “negotiating” with Pootie Poot’s hit men.
It will be less “productive” than Turkey’s Mediated Negotiations* in 2022, and with out the EU and Ukraine, meaningless.
*ruZZia’s position was that ruZZia get’s everything they want while Ukraine get’s nothing. Repeated ad nauseum.
kindness
Why would anyone bother to form a treaty with the United States going forward? Trump has proved US treaties won’t be followed if an incoming administration doesn’t want to. That means treaties can only be good for one administration. That makes them useless.
Bill Arnold
@Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq):
Re realDonaldTrump on X (and Truth Social), “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”
My heart wasn’t into a thorough search, but found this:
Celui qui sauve sa patrie ne viole aucune loi.
« Celui qui sauve sa patrie ne viole aucune loi. »
Napoléon Bonaparte, Virilités, maximes et pensées compilées par Jules Bertaut, éditions Sansot et Cie, 1912
(google translate):
People see it as an odd post. Questions that have been raised:
(1) Who posted/tweeted it? Not particuarly Trump’s style.
(2) Napolean famously did not fare well.
(3) It is also very easily read as, and many have done so, an invitation for assassination. Why? (From me: there is a rabbit warren there, with some … esoteric branches.)
Jay
@kindness:
They aren’t even good for one Administration.
Dolt 45 Administration renegotiated NAFTA to the USMCA in his first term.
https://www.cassidylevy.com/news/how-canada-and-mexico-might-approach-25-tariffs-under-usmca/
So USMCA is dead and there are no longer any trade agreements between Canada. Mexico and the US.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@Jay: Proof positive that Felonious Thunk doesn’t read contracts.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: Yes, Trump is too lazy and incurious to find that Napoleon quote on his own. One possible source: Steven Miller, Deputy White House Chief of Staff.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: It’s a direct lift from a Russian movie about Waterloo. Napolean never actually said it. Napolean in the movie did.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: It’s from the 1970 film Waterloo starring Rod Steiger as Napolean.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: And since none of the possible suspects for actually tweeting this – Scavino, Miller, Musk – likely saw Waterloo, it is more likely they got this from Breivik’s manifesto, where he quotes the apocryphal statement.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman: worth noting that Waterloo has been making the rounds on You Tube because they’ve been comparing Stieger excellent performance as Napoleon to what ever the hell Ridley Scott though he was doing in that move of his. So, only the deepest of thinkers as always around Trump.
J. Arthur Crank
@Adam L Silverman: I am not blaming you, but now I have an ABBA earworm going on.
Nettoyeur
Common sense dictates treaties that end wars have include representatives of the belligerents if they are actually to have any effect . Other wise it is Davos for poseurs.
bad Jim
I thought Zelenskyy’s speech was something else. A little more fierce, unbuttoned, less diplomatic than usual. Damn fine stuff.
Peale
I’m going to guess that the representative of the Ukraine is either going to be Yanukovych or whomever Russia wants to replace Zelensky with. He’ll sign away those rights and therefore the US will recognize him as the rightful PM.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
MAGA has left a huge opening for a Sino-EU rapprochement, & the fundamentals has always been there for some degree of rapprochement because European threat perception of the PRC challenge is different from the U.S.’ (even a U.S. w/ a Dem government). It is not surprising that Beijing is more than willing to explore this opening, out of pure self-interest.
So far, I don’t think the PRC government has insisted that Ukraine be at the table, so it is clear that Wang Yi’s words are cynical posturing.
YY_Sima Qian
Probably the right take on what Wang Yi was trying to achieve at the MSC:
Mallard Filmore
@Jay:
Straight from the Saddam Hussein school of diplomacy: “I make demands, you agree to them.”
Jesse
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: Summary of the meeting between Ukrainian & PRC foreign ministers on the sidelines of the MSC:
I was hasty in my comment at #46. There was reporting earlier in the week that Beijing had proposed that Russia, the US & the PRC work together to find an end to the Ukraine War. However, those reports sourced from members of the Trump Administration, so may have credibility issues.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: China already has significant investment in Ukrainian agriculture, so I think the prospect of a strong bilateral relationship is entirely realistic.
Miss Bianca
@New Deal democrat: Every time I think I can’t be more embarrassed and infuriated by something the Trump Administration does, I get proof that there is, indeed, somewhere lower they can go, and drag this country lower with them.
At this point, I find I would almost welcome the rest of the world arming themselves against the US and Russia. Hell, I’d almost welcome an invasion.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Yeah, Sino-Ukrainian relations were very productive & mutually beneficial post-dissolution of the fUSSR. Beyond the massive grains trade, Ukraine was perhaps the top source of military & aviation technology to the PRC in the 90s & 00s, instrumental to the latter’s military modernization effort, at a time when the PRC was (& is) under Western embargo for mil tech & Russia was leery of selling the PRC the most advanced weapons out of the well-founded concerns of being copied.
Some examples:
Post-Cold War, thousands of Ukrainian (& to a lesser extent from Russia & other fSSRs) experts were hired into the PRC’s MIC & aerospace industries, joining the tens of thousands of compatriots emigrating to the West.
The highly productive relationship persisted even after the Russian invasion in 2014. However, leading up to & following the 2022 invasion, Xi & the CPC regime made the cold & cynical calculation that Russia would be a far more useful partner to the PRC in its Great Power Competition w/ the US, which had become the central organizing principle for the PRC’s domestic & foreign policies just as it has been in the US, than Ukraine ever could be.
Nonetheless, the grains export to the PRC continued at market prices, & so did the import of civilian grade tech/components obviously destined for battlefield use. Beijing can be relied upon to act in a pragmatic & self-interested manner.