(Image by NEIVANMADE)
All of eastern and central Ukraine – at 6:20 PM EST/1:20 AM local time in Ukraine – is once again under air raid alert for drone swarm attack.
It appears that portions of last week’s US “proposal” for Ukrainian mineral resources has leaked:
Parts of the leaked critical minerals agreement that the US presented to Zelensky last week
I am told the original document stipulated that this agreement between the US and Ukrainian governments would be governed under.. NY State law!
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@dmitri.silverado.org) February 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Which would mean that Letitia James would be in charge of its enforcement!
Other issues here:
– Request to sign an agreement that says “Pre-decisional & Deliberative”
– No specification on the timeframe for the license payments – in perpetuity or limited in some form?— Dmitri Alperovitch (@dmitri.silverado.org) February 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
– US commitments are extremely vague. I am told the original draft didn’t include any, which would have made it unenforceable under NY law (you have to have future considerations included in a contract)
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@dmitri.silverado.org) February 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
That’s not so much a “proposal” as a list of demands.
I think it’s the first case in human history where a nation fighting for its survival against a major aggressor is being forced—by a non-combatant partner—into paying Versailles-style reparations over military aid that had earlier been provided purposefully at no cost.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 4:10 PM
And all of this while the war is still ongoing and far from lost.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 4:10 PM
We are probably the first country to be asked to pay reparations for being invaded. It would be funny if it weren’t so tragic.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
I think it is important for everyone to keep in mind, that these demands, “negotiating” without Zelenskyy and Ukraine at the table, and especially Kellogg’s and Trump’s demands that Ukraine must hold elections, are all attempts to actually undermine President Zelenskyy. It is an active measure and influence campaign. It is also Putin’s active measure and influence campaign. Putin has been hammering on this for a long time as a way to present what he thinks is a reasonable objection to why he can’t end his genocidal re-invasion: Ukraine doesn’t have a legitimate president for him to negotiate because there haven’t been elections since the beginning of the genocidal re-invasion. The reason there haven’t been elections is, of course, the result of the genocidal re-invasion: Ukraine is under martial law due to the state of emergency created by having to defend against Russia. Under Ukrainian law, elections are suspended until after the emergency is lifted. Trump picked this up from Putin and, most likely also Musk and the latter’s toady David Sacks who have been amplifying this agitprop on the hellsite. Kellogg is now pushing it because Trump is. This is a perfect example of reflexive control, specifically the reflexive control that Putin has over Trump. Which is why the EU and the UK have also been excluded by Trump from these negotiations.
Three basic Soviet/Russian rules for negotiating with the West:
1.Demand the maximum, don’t ask.
2.Present ultimatums.
3.Never give ground—there’s always someone in the West willing to offer something.Just a reminder.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Ukrainska Pravda has more on President Zelenskyy’s views on what the US is doing in Saudi Arabia this week.
Ukraine will not be participating in upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia and will not recognise any agreements made on Ukraine without Kyiv’s involvement.
Source: Zelenskyy, commenting on the talks in Saudi Arabia between Russian and US representatives, quoted by Interfax-Ukraine
Quote from Zelenskyy: “Ukraine will not participate [in the talks]. Ukraine did not know anything about them. And Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine to be useless. And we cannot recognise anything or any agreements about us without us. And we will not recognise such agreements.”
Details: The head of state noted that there is a bilateral track in these negotiations, “and they have the right to do that if they have bilateral issues”. Zelenskyy added that this had been discussed before, but only now have they “begun to speak publicly”.
Zelenskyy said his official visit to Saudi Arabia on 18 February “has no connection with the things happening in Saudi Arabia at the level of the US and Russian representatives”.
The president added that he would ask Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman about the talks.
He also said that he would raise the issue of lowering oil prices during his visit and believes that US President Donald Trump may do so too.
Quote from Zelenskyy: “I don’t know who can reduce prices. I believe that President Trump has the greatest power to do this, and he is the strongest in this area, in the energy sector, and controls it. And I think that if he set the goal, he could do it.”
Background:
- On Monday 17 February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Saudi Arabia for talks between US and Russian delegations on resolving the war in Ukraine.
- According to Axios, the meeting between the Russian and US officials will take place on Tuesday, 18 February.
- On 16 February, Andrii Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that no meetings with Russians are planned until a plan to end the war has been developed.
President Zelenskyy held a videoconference press availability today. During that event he made it clear that Europe had to be represented at any actual talks to end Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Europe must be at the negotiating table for ending the war in Ukraine, therefore it is important to appoint a special representative to be involved in this process. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a video conference with media representatives.
The Head of State stressed that the United States is a strategic partner of Ukraine and a leader in providing assistance, but during the negotiations, the proposals from European countries regarding the format of support for our state and security guarantees should also be considered. That is why Volodymyr Zelenskyy supports the idea of appointing a special representative of Europe.
“The specifics of what Europe offers or how it supports Ukraine, in what format, and what security guarantees Europe is ready to provide – all this will definitely be on the table, for sure. We will consider who that person will be. It is important for us that this person is not only a representative of Europe and is respected by Europe. It is critical that everyone at the table understands that this is a serious person,” the President said.
The Head of State added that the negotiations should involve countries ready to assume responsibility for security guarantees, assistance, investments in Ukraine’s restoration and prevention of further aggression by Russia.
Here is the video of that videoconference:
Georgia:
Rustaveli Avenue is blocked again. The continuous protest continues. Day 82.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Tonight was Day 82 of our continuous protests against the Russian dictatorship in Georgia. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 MOSE— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 3:29 PM
I uploaded this video 11 hours ago and closed the app. And it got posted JUST NOW as I entered the app again. I guess it’s my fault that I never learn to wait but sometimes I just cannot wait due to circumstances. It takes LONG to upload things here. An app should be FAST. @support.bsky.team
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 3:55 AM
15-20 minutes until a cleaning serviceman began tidying up and the protesters helped (I suppose the candles were already burned). This is very bitter but to a degree also sweet. Very few things have put together the regime police and protesters, if anything at all. #GeorgiaProtests 2/2.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 3:52 AM
GD continues to adopt repressive laws—Mamuka Mdinaradze stated that “an article on treason will be added to the Criminal Code.”
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The regime in Georgia says they’ll be introducing “high treason” in the Criminal Code. Next in: protesters are jailed for high treason because protesting anything at all is high treason against the firm national interests protected by the regime. #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 3:57 PM
This morning, February 17, Giorgi Gakharia was attacked — eggs were thrown at him as he returned to Tbilisi from the Munich conference. Gakharia’s team alleges that the attack was orchestrated by Ivanishvili’s group.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Ex-PM and now one of the opposition leaders Giorgi Gakharia and his associate, ex-Georgian Ambassador to Germany Elguja Khokrishvili were thrown eggs at at Tbilisi airport by Titushky (regime thugs) as they returned from the Munich Security Conference. 1/2
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 4:01 AM
“Are you not funded by USAID anymore? Are you not a sellout, principle-less agent/spy anymore?”
The regime tries to rally their propaganda around USAID now in a desperate effort to get President Trump’s attention. #terrorinGeorgia 2/2.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Propagandist Natia Beridze threatens President Zourabichvili with a Titushky (regime thugs) attack similar to Gakharia’s at the airport and advises she wear a raincoat. The President is coming back from the Munich Security Conference.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Paweł Herczyński about Mzia Amaghlobeli:
“She has become a symbol of journalistic courage and of the relentless fight for justice. She embodies the spirit of those unjustly detained”.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
The EU:
“European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw US troops from the Baltics and perhaps further west, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that Nato governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict beyond Ukraine.”
Oof. @gideonrachman.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/11f1…— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 17, 2025 at 10:24 AM
From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
When JD Vance took the stage at the Munich Security Conference last week, he issued a stern warning. The US vice-president told the assembled politicians and diplomats that free speech and democracy are under attack from European elites: “The threat I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s . . . the threat from within.”
If Vance hoped to persuade his audience, rather than simply insult it, he failed. Indeed, his speech backfired spectacularly, convincing many listeners that America itself is now a threat to Europe. In the throng outside the conference hall, a prominent German politician told me: “That was a direct assault on European democracy.” A senior diplomat said: “It’s very clear now, Europe is alone.” When I asked him if he now regarded the US as an adversary, he replied: “Yes.”
The most positive verdict I heard on the speech was that it was “puerile bullshit”, but aimed at a US audience and therefore safely ignored. But unpack Vance’s speech — and place it in the context of Donald Trump’s decision to engage Vladimir Putin, while sidelining Ukraine and Europe — and it becomes clear that American culture wars, international security and European politics can no longer be disentangled.
What Vance did was to subvert the ideas of freedom, democracy and shared values that have underpinned the western alliance for 80 years. In his world the battle for freedom in Europe is no longer about deterring an autocratic and aggressive Russia, as it was for Harry Truman or Ronald Reagan. Vance’s fight for freedom is a battle to save “western civilisation”, as defined by Elon Musk and others, from the twin threats of mass immigration and the “woke mind virus”.
The Trump administration’s ideology means that, in important respects, it now feels more affinity with Putin than Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin is seen as a warrior fighting for his country and for conservative values; the Ukrainian is dismissed as a freeloader with all the wrong friends in Europe.
The Trump administration regards the European far right as its true allies. In appealing for the likes of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to be welcomed into government, Vance is calling for Europe to turn into a larger version of Viktor Orbán’s Hungary — a soft autocracy with a soft spot for Putin’s Russia. It was telling that, in Munich, Vance found time to meet Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, but not with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Trump clearly intends to cut a deal on Ukraine with Putin over the heads of Zelenskyy and the Europeans. That could have tragic consequences for Ukraine, which may soon be asked to accept loss of territory without security guarantees for the future. The alternative would be to try to fight on without American help.
The implications for the rest of Europe are also alarming. Putin wants Nato troops removed from the whole of the former Soviet empire. European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw US troops from the Baltics and perhaps further west, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that Nato governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict beyond Ukraine.
It is clear that the US can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally for the Europeans. But the Trump administration’s political ambitions for Europe mean that, for now, America is also an adversary — threatening democracy in Europe and even European territory, in the case of Greenland.
So what to do? Europeans need to start preparing fast for the day when the US security guarantee to Europe is definitively removed. That must involve building up autonomous defence industries. It should also mean a European mutual defence pact, outside Nato, that extends beyond the EU — to include Britain, Norway and others.
Trump will use any leverage he has to force America’s European allies into compliance on issues from trade and security to their domestic politics. That means that Europe must now start the painful process of “de-risking” its relationship with the US, looking for areas of dangerous dependence on America and stripping them out of the system.
More at the link!
👋👋 Since there’s a lot of talk from Trump about how “Europe has not really carried its weight in terms of the money” for Ukraine, let’s just share some facts.
Right from the beginning, *Europe has provided *more* aid to Ukraine than the United States*
1/2
— Arthur Snell (@snellarthur.bsky.social) February 14, 2025 at 4:26 AM
Yes, 🇺🇸 gave more weapons, for 2 reasons:
1 – DoD has a lot more unused stuff to give
2 – it suits 🇺🇸 military-industrial complex to be paid to give stuff to 🇺🇦Yes, Europe must increase defence spending, but don’t forget that 🇺🇸’s huge military budget is a big subsidy to its own economy.
2/2
— Arthur Snell (@snellarthur.bsky.social) February 14, 2025 at 4:26 AM
Romania:
The US used to lobby for the release of the likes of Sakharov or Solzhenitsyn. Now it is pushing to free Andrew Tate. Quite a falling off …
— Gideon Rachman (@gideonrachman.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Tate and his brother are obvious flight risks now that Trump is president. If they were released they’d immediately try to get to the US knowing that Trump wouldn’t extradite them back to Romania for prosecution for sex trafficking. rape, and forming a criminal gang. They’re also wanted in Britain with sex trafficking and rape.
Italy:
/1. Two explosions presumably occurred on board of tanker “Seajewel” which was transporting oil from Russia to Europe despite sanctions.
The vessel’s crew states that they heard two loud bangs and the damaged hull shows concave deformation, indicating the likely use of explosive devices.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:27 PM
/2.The damage being below the waterline and the fish kill nearby further support the theory that explosive devices have been used.
Savona Coast Guard is conducting an on-site investigation with divers. Investigators have not released any further information so far. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Ukrainska Pravda has the details:
Two explosions occurred in the city of Savona in northern Italy on the moored oil tanker Seajewel, which Ukrainska Pravda has found was transporting oil from Russia to Europe despite sanctions.
Source: Italian news outlet IVG
Details: IVG reported that the cause of the explosion is unknown. However, the vessel’s crew states that they heard two loud bangs and the damaged hull shows concave deformation, indicating the likely use of explosive devices. The damage being below the waterline and the fish kill nearby further support the theory that explosive devices have been used.
The Savona Coast Guard is conducting an on-site investigation with divers. Investigators have not released any further information so far. The Seajewel is one of the tankers that were loaded with Russian cargo three times in 2024 (in February, March and May) and came back after each unloading.
Earlier, Ukrainska Pravda found out that the Seajewel tanker was spotted unloading in the Romanian port of Constanța after arriving from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Sources in law enforcement agencies reported that the tanker was supposed to be heading to the Russian city of Novorossiysk for transshipment.
The US:
Trump stated that he does not see Russia as a threat to NATO and Europe and doubts that it intends to attack any Alliance country. He said this to Fox News journalists.
www.foxnews.com/video/636893…
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Reflexive control.
Back to Ukraine.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The funniest part? Donald Trump couldn’t care less about “American taxpayer money,” “the lives of Russians and Ukrainians,” or “peace on Earth.”
The only things that truly matter to him are his bottomless ego and his relentless obsession with proving how “tough” and “victorious” he is.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
…constantly trying to outshine Biden in a petty act of revenge for losing the election.
And, true to his nature, he “wins” at the expense of America’s allies and the most vulnerable.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
His tantrums, insults, and blackmailing antics always seem to target Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Ukraine, the EU—dragging them into unnecessary scandals that lead to nothing but chaos.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Yet, for some reason, Trump is never in a hurry to pull the same stunts on Putin or Xi.
And that’s the real problem for the free world: Putin fully exploits Trump’s childish need to score an easy “win” at Ukraine’s expense. Millions of people may pay a terrible price for it.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
But Trump won’t be one of them.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Several notable meetings between China and Ukraine and statements made during interviews indicate that Beijing is actively interested in the peace process and is open to cooperation with Kyiv. China is also positioning itself for post-war reconstruction efforts and potential security partnerships.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Whether I like it or not is irrelevant, this is a natural and expected development. Moreover, there is a risk that if the U.S. administration continues its anti-European rhetoric, coupled with subtle threats to “buy” Greenland from its European NATO ally, shifts could emerge in Europe as well.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
It’s too early to draw firm conclusions, and much of it is still very speculative, but one thing is clear, China has no intention of staying on the sidelines
Relevant materials:
bsky.app/profile/anto…
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Detection and destruction of the enemy’s S-350 “Vityaz” anti-aircraft missile system. Estimated cost of $135 million.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Kyiv:
Last night Kyiv was hit with a big snowstorm. It was also hit with a big Russian aerial attack. So as snow blanketed the Ukrainian capital, our night was punctuated by air defense systems and explosions — and frequent pings of mobile alerts telling people to seek shelter.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 17, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Kharkiv:
Three civilians were injured, and 15 houses were damaged in Kharkiv last night.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Last night, a Russian drone struck a yard in Kharkiv, destroying a garage and a shack, and shattering the house windows, terrifying the 71-year-old owner.
It could have been worse, you might think—and you’re not wrong. Russia has done
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 7:23 AM
worse. But who does this? Who targets people’s homes in the dead of night? It’s terrorism, pure and simple.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Chornobyl:
The State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported that roof climbers are extinguishing three smoldering insulation spots on the Chernobyl sarcophagus. Partial uncovering of the shelter’s structures is ongoing. The radiation level at the nuclear power plant’s site remains within safe limits.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Krasnodar Oblast, Russia:
In the Krasnodar region, drones also attacked the “Kropotkinskaya” oil pumping station.
This is the largest oil pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Kuban. After the attack, the station ceased operations.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 5:34 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
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Open thread!
Move Slow and Break Things RESPITE Thread
Gin & Tonic
Z made P look foolish. That’s unforgivable.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Geminid
Ankara-based Clash Report showed video of President Zelenskyy arriving in Istanbul this evening. I guess he’ll meet with Turkish officials there before flying on to Saudi Arabia.
ColoradoGuy
My thanks also.
Jay
Elizabelle
Patron just enjoys being a doggie. No doubt some small critter or varmint was down under cover of soil.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Yep.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: Yes, that was announced late today. I figured I’d save whatever comes out of the meetings for tomorrow.
Adam L Silverman
@ColoradoGuy: You’re welcome, also.
YY_Sima Qian
& Kellogg is supposed to be the Russia-hawk in the Trump Administration?
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: And dipshits like Sacks won’t ask (and won’t be asked) the obvious question: how many elections has russia had, in the time Ukraine has had seven? How many presidents has each country had in the last 30 years?
Jay
Not safe video
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1891506730074321077#m
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’ll write more on this tomorrow night, but as you know, the whole point of this is to force Zelenskyy to call elections because “the US will not continue to provide support to states that don’t have freely elected governments,” which will provide Putin the opportunity to use his assets to subvert the election and replace Zelenskyy with a quisling who will give him everything he wants in the US led “negotiations.”
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Of course that’s the plan. Add in the fact that Zelensky is genuinely unpopular with a pretty large portion of the population….
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: No, Kellogg will be whatever he has to be to be part of the Trump administration. A sad end to what had been a long and successful military career.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I once had to debunk some bullshit he spread about US special forces being blown up in Kharkiv. I was able to debunk it because I’d been watching him propogating the agitprop through Twitter in real time, so when I got the ask from my client, I was able to explain it easily and then pull the source material from his tweets.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: I’m curious: are you familiar with security analyst Levent Kemel? He and some partners have a site called ActaFabulae that does a?lot of reporting on African conflicts. Last October Kemel joined Clash Report as a contributing editor, and he seems to have added some depth to their reporting (I may have asked you this already).
funlady75
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Which is why I didn’t include it tonight.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: I have seen some of his stuff.
Adam L Silverman
@funlady75: You’re welcome.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: I was interested to see Levent Kemal describe himself as Circassian.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: That’s interesting.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
zhena gogolia
Does anyone have a good explanation for why the Palestine protests are scheduled for Feb. 24? They refuse to move them for our students who want to do something for Ukraine. It looks as if it’s a national thing. Why choose that date? Huh?
HeiSokoly
@YY_Sima Qian: Kellogg was part of the first term extortion of Ukraine—in the room for the “perfect phone call” and had no problem with it.
His daughter parachuted in to “lead” an existing veterans’ charity in May 2022 when it started providing services to wounded American volunteers in Ukraine, in what looks very much like family reputation repair now.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: It’s the 31st anniversary to the day of Baruch Goldstein’s terrorist attack against the Hebron mosque where he killed twenty-nine Palestinians.
HeiSokoly
@YY_Sima Qian: oh and Kellogg was part of Trump’s team from early 2016, so he knew all about Manafort & Yanukovych & Medvedchuk/Party of Regions & Kilimnik from the get-go, and had no problems with that either, any more than Giuliani & Prince working witj Derkach to subvert Ukrainian democracy in 2020 stopped him ftom signing up again.
There are historical parallels for Western officers who choose to work with fascists & tyrants.
TS
@Jay:
No country’s relationship with the US can be saved. When you lie down with aggressors, you are worse than the aggressor
Reparations led to WWII, some of us may not live to see where this leads, but it is nowhere that I would wish my children to be.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: They didn’t do this last year, did they, though?
Jay
@TS:
Other than ruZZia’s.
Martin
Zelenskyy should have counter offered with the minerals under Russian occupied land and told Trump to go get them himself.
Socolofi
Adam (or anyone who might know the answer) —
In a very Machiavellian manner, it’s to the US and EU’s advantage to keep the war in Ukraine going – they’ve bled Russia for between a quarter and a third of their army (seriously, that Putin has to beg North Korea for more meat shielding is just a huge sign of weakness – and none of the normal former Soviet states are helping, such as Kazakhstan). So right now, Russia really is in no condition to invade anyone really.
What would be the response if the EU, esp Poland, Germany, France, and the UK, started massing troops near the Russian borders. Maybe a “Welcome to NATO” exercise in Finland, some deployments in Poland, that kind of thing. Russia has always been paranoid about an invasion… so if the EU started making noise there, would that give Ukraine some leverage? Or at least force Russia to redeploy some troops? From what I read, they’ve significantly reduced their border forces.
Also, just my own belief… Russia doesn’t give up anything they’ve taken to date in any negotiation… they’ll likely give in to a ceasefire with a new border of where things currently stand, that’s it. I don’t see that even with full US and EU support them having an ability to drive Russia out, so the only way that actually happens is if NATO moves in. Unclear to me that NATO doing so really means nuclear, but it certainly does amp things up a notch.
YY_Sima Qian
From one of the more Atlanticist inclined of former French diplomats:
& further elaboration of the critique from the Left:
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman:
@HeiSokoly:
Thank you both for the replies. I have read that Kellogg was in on the call w/ Zelenskyy where Trump tried to extort the Ukrainian President. That is why I found it incongruous w/ the MSM’s characterization of Kellogg as a Russia-hawk, & Kellogg’s own hawkish noises recently.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: Not that I can recall.
YY_Sima Qian
@Socolofi: Putin will just respond w/ rattling the nuclear saber much more loudly, which has repeatedly proven effective in pressuring US/European governments to revert to caution.
Putin clearly does not actually fear a NATO invasion because he had already denuded Russia of defenses along its very long borders. Russia also has nukes, & there is zero support w/in any of the NATO countries to even consider postulating invasion of Russia. Putin will see it as bluff and make domestic & international political hay, instead.
There are no weird tricks that take the place of Ukrainian advances on the battlefield. Instead of military demonstrations along Russia’s borders (& actually heighten the risk of conflict that might end in thermonuclear war), why not just give what Ukraine needs to shift the battlefield momentum back in its favor?
Adam L Silverman
@Socolofi: The problem with doing an exercise as military deception – MILDEC – as your proposing is that it is intended to be a distraction and divert attention from whatever the real operation is. Now if there is no actual real operation you might, if played right with other MILDEC, drive Putin’s paranoia way up.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The Satan missile keeps blowing up, on the launch pad.
Oreshnik wonderwaffen, 1, less than impressive.
All of the ruZZian Nuclear Arsenal was built by mostly Ukraine, and many believe that the Soviet arsenal can’t be rebuilt and modernized with out Ukraine.
Maybe the NORK’s and Iranian’s can teach ruZZia how to build missiles that work.
MoCaAce
How accurate is the targeting on these drones? Are they purposely targeting some senior citizens house or are they so inaccurate that they often miss their intended targets? Which with the Russians is probably an orphanage or hospital… fucking monsters.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Be that as it may, no country will formulate military or geopolitical strategy vis-a-vis Russia on the assumption that its nuclear arsenal doesn’t work.
Jay
@MoCaAce:
It varies by drone. FPV drones are highly accurate because they are live operated via a camera feed. That is what the ruZZians use for human hunts in Kharkiv,
Shaheed’s can be GPS/GLONASS guided with a 50′ CEP, or can also be guided by a live visual feed.
As the Shaheed drone strike on the “Evacuation Center” in Ukrainian occupied Kursk shows clearly, the ruZZian’s are not interested in military targets at all.
MoCaAce
And thank you Adam for all you do. I mostly lurk and your Ukraine reports are the only place where I can check in on the war.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yup, but really, “tsunami nuclear submarine drones”, “nuclear powered globe straddling cruise missiles”, Satan and Oreshnik that impacts with the power of 10,000 suns.
So many “Western Experts” need to start wearing Depends, and sadly, many of them are in the Command Structure.
The ruZZian military isn’t the #2 military in the world, they aren’t even the #2 military in ruZZia. Ukraine is #1, the Free Russia Legions are #2, the NORKs are probably #3, at best, ruZZia comes in 4th.
Adam L Silverman
@MoCaAce: You’re most welcome.
patrick II
Does Canada have its own nukes? Are there American nukes in Canada?
So, if Trumpis sayingthat we need Greenland for defense purposes, but that Russia is no longer a threat, who are we defending against?
Is it possible that Trump is attacking any weak neighbor for its resources? And that the US is becoming more dangerous than the USSR at its peak?
RAM
Explanatory equation: Musk/Trump + Putin 2025 = Hitler + Stalin 1939