Jonathan Cohen posted a link to his Google sheet where he’s looked at every roll call vote since the House has been in session, and put percentages on voting with Trump as well as voting absent. To show my love to all who read my posts, I downloaded it and did some analysis.
Here are a couple of take-aways:
- Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and his wife are under indictment for allegedly taking $600K worth of bribes from Azerbaijan. He’s the only Democrat who’s voted 100% with Trump’s agenda. He’s a risk to cross over to the Republican Party in an Eric Adams-style deal. Here’s my post with more details on the role of the DCCC in enabling this piece of shit.
- The only absentee issue that Johnson seems to have is Roger Williams from Texas. He missed 27% of the votes.
- Jeffries has a number of members missing a lot of votes: Raul Grijalva has lung cancer and he’s missed every vote this year. I just became a Colorado resident — my Rep, Brittany Petterson, is #2 in the absentee list with 82% absent votes because she’s almost ready to deliver a baby and the shitty animals who run the House are cracking down on proxy voting. Fredrica Wilson of Florida has a 64% absentee rating, don’t know what’s up with her. Nancy Pelosi broke her hip and used a walker to get to the floor pretty often — she has a 55% absentee rating. Another half dozen or have missed 27% or more of the votes this session.
- Johnson’s caucus votes 100% with Trump unless they’re absent.
Roll Call has an analysis of votes 2024 Congress. Grijalva made 12% of the votes last year. He’s from the D+24 AZ-3 district, so there’s no reason that he couldn’t have quit last year. Another Democrat who could vote would almost certainly have been elected from that district. I hate to say that because I like the guy and he represents the place my mother, who also had lung cancer, grew up. But the issue of reps hanging around when they can’t vote is a bipartisan one. Roll Call identifies a couple of Republicans and some other Democrats who were unable to vote for most of the session yet hung on.
Part of the reason these members stick around is because Congress has gold-plated medical care that costs a whopping $54/month for each member.
So, while I was hoping to see that Johnson had some members who weren’t reliable votes, the sad fact is that this session the issue is with our team. If we do have a really close vote in the House — such as one where Jeffries peels off a couple of Republican defectors from Biden/Harris districts — it’s going to be a sad day in Mudville if Cuellar’s defection or the incapacity of a couple of members who should have retired cause us to lose that vote. There’s also the possibility that the special elections to replace some Trump appointees could go our way, if there’s a massive uproar over King Elon’s diktats. We need every vote in those scenarios, too.
Baud
This is their chance. I think they’ll get it done.
John S.
For all the extolling of “stand by your politician” that I see around here, does that really ever work in our favor?
Republican malfeasance is nearly always greeted with firm support from their electorate. That doesn’t usually seem to happen with a Democratic electorate, presumably because we have scruples.
But it also seems like our worst trash inevitably turns to the Republicans. How often does that even happen with Republicans turning into Democrats? Even the much hyped Adam Kinzigers and Liz Cheneys of the world never actually became Democrats.
So what’s even the point of the Democratic Party standing behind corrupt or failed politicians? There is zero benefit.
Eolirin
@Baud: Given the nature and magnitude of the cuts, success here will lead to a deep national recession that falls heaviest on rural communities.
Right now they can spare one vote if everyone’s in the chamber.
So I’m not so sure they can get it done.
Part of the issue with the kind of analysis Mix did up there is that it doesn’t take into account all the votes that don’t get held, because usually, there are people who know how to count.
But they could still get it done, for all that, yes. And even if they don’t, the Trump administration seems content to break the law to achieve the same ends without legislation. I’m not sure there’s a way to stop them.
Miss Bianca
Point of fact – Brittany Pettersen had her baby last month. Not sure how long her maternity leave lasts.
Eolirin
@John S.: We got a lot of Judges appointed by cutting deals with Manchin and Sinema, and even if it was watered down, we got a lot of good things out of the infrastructure and inflation reduction acts.
I don’t think it’s worth backing them when they’re getting primaried and you can win their seats but backing Manchin and Sinema while they could still get elected got us tangible benefits over their seats being held by Republicans. Even if they hobbled our majority they gave us one, and we wouldn’t have had it at all, so we would have gotten literally nothing out of the Biden administration.
So it depends on the circumstances.
Shalimar
@Eolirin: Based on very embarrassing lost votes for the last 4 Republican Speakers, it has been a few decades since they had anyone who could count votes like Pelosi did.
Citizen Alan
That is an interesting point that I have never considered. I regularly get angry at Dem politicians who stay in office while dealing with major health issues that interfere with their job performance. But I never thought about the possibility that not all of them are filthy rich, and someone who is suffering from such health issues might think twice about quitting and losing literally the best health care available on the planet for which they pay a nominal sum. What sort of treatment can Private Citizen Raul Grijalva get in southern Arizona and how much would he have to pay for it? Especially at a time when the GOP Death Cult is actively trying to destroy our national health infrastructure because Daddy Vladdy wants us all to die.
Old School
@Baud:
What is “it”? Tax cuts for billionaires?
Baud
@Old School:
Yes, their whole tax cut, spending, and debt plan. I think it’s one big bill.
ETA: It’ll probably be the only thing they’ll do.
Geminid
@Citizen Alan: Rep. Grijalva’s district includes parts of Tucson, home to the University of Arizona which likely has a major medical center attached to it. So Grijalva can access first-rate medical care back home.
Belafon
@John S.: Part of the reason the Republican party is where it is today is because their voters voted for crazy in the primaries and always voted Republican in the general. That caused some more moderate Republicans to lose early, and then caused the party to recognize that they had to win the voters on their terms.
There are too many on the left stuck on the idea that if you don’t like Democrats, you don’t vote.
caphilldcne
Just popping in to say regarding health benefits, when Members of Congress retire, they can have access to the Federal Employee Health Benefits Plan (they have to go through ACA through DC Healthlink) while in office. It’s actually a pretty good deal. Also, if they are over 62 they are likely eligible for Medicare. So I doubt he’s stayed in office specifically for health benefits. I know and like him a lot and I suspect the issue is he’s a committed left progressive and he doesn’t have an heir apparent. There is a total lack of thought to succession planning for Members of Congress (and really they ought to let it be sorted out by the electorate). In any case, this has been going on a long time and it self-evidently is hurting Democrats more than Republicans at the moment with a few exceptions like Mitch McConnell.
@mistermix.bsky.social
@Miss Bianca:
Thanks – just moved to the area and don’t know much about her.
@Geminid: U of A Medical Center has a world-class cancer institute. Multiple relatives treated there, it’s a great place.
Shalimar
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/elon-musk-mulls-giving-americans-a-5-000-check-based-on-doge-savings/ar-AA1znzb3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=1b26cb5133564126d8b53316fb498008&ei=22
King Elon has gotten so discouraged by all of the negative publicity that he’s contemplating paying everyone to like him. Out of government money, of course.
hrprogressive
At the rate things are going, Congress will just dispense with even having votes.
Whatever Musk or Trump decree will just be so, apparently.
And under the doctrine of “Who’s gonna stop them?” Unless, or until someone does, they will continue unabated.
Geminid
@Shalimar: I’m not sure the difference was Pelosi’s vote counting prowess. Republican House caucuses have members much more radical than those on the other side of the aisle. Pelosi’s caucus had its fights like the one in July, 2019 over emergency border funding. But Democrats were never willing to hold the Speakership hostage in order to extract policy concessions, even in early 2021 when they had only a five vote majority.
Republicans have done this repeatedly. I attrubute some of this radicalism to gerrymandering, which has caused a race to the bottom in terms of extremism and quality. Democrats on the other hand don’t seem to have suffered from gerrymandering the same way. We continue to elect good quality, pragmatic Representatives from various types of districts.
kindness
Maybe we should suggest to Elon’s DOGE stooges they go after Congress’s medical benefits? If done right it could work with these misfits.
Baud
@Shalimar:
Media loves reporting on Trump’s musings and now they have Elon’s as well. Two for the price of one.
schrodingers_cat
@Belafon: They also use their platforms to encourage others to withhold their vote
Captain C
@Belafon:
For those people, the most important thing every election is to Teach the Democrats a Lesson, no matter what else is going on in the world.
Starfish (she/her)
@Eolirin: Kansas City just doesn’t have the number of quality jobs for the people being laid off by the federal government.
Old School
@Shalimar:
I see the proposal is to only pay households that pay federal income tax. Trump would never go for that as he doesn’t pay federal income tax. (Because he’s smart.)
Geminid
@Captain C: I don’t think there are actually that many potential Democratic voters of this type. They do make a lot of noise, though.
Gretchen
Today Muskrats decided to gut the Roy Blunt Center for Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementias Research at NIH. At least 10% of the staff including the incoming acting director, a star researcher they were thrilled to recruit for the job. Will Republican Senators step up to defend the legacy of their Republican former colleague, or nah?
Jerry Moran’s Washington voicemail box is full, but I got a person in his local office. Also called Josh Hawley’s office since I have a Kansas City phone number and got a person there, who hadn’t heard the news yet. I said I hoped that, as a Missouri Senator, he would want to defend Blunt’s legacy. https://newrepublic.com/article/191702/trump-musk-national-institutes-health-wrecked
MazeDancer
@Starfish (she/her):
Read that last night about KC not having enough jobs to absorb the Federal layoffs. Guessing that is true in several places.
Like what is Alabama going to do when the doctors and scientists leave?
Also read lots of posts saying once the job numbers are announced in April, we’ll go straight into recession.
Didn’t sleep much last night.
Baud
Holy crap!
Gretchen
@Starfish (she/her): The federal government is the largest single employer in Kansas City. Most presidents brag about how many jobs they created, not about eliminating more than anyone else has ever done. Most of these firings have to be illegal. Why isn’t anyone stopping them?
I have a friend who is the union rep for his federal department. They got a back-to-work order. The union lawyer pointed out that they couldn’t do that; remote work is in the contract. They came back and said “we can change that. It’s a change of mission”. Of course they don’t have offices for all these people to go in to, but they don’t care.
Baud
@Gretchen:
Why would Republicans stop him until the Republican base cares?
RevRick
Just got back from a presentation at our church involving the installation of solar panels on our roof, which I recommended we investigate. The company representative presented us with a proposal to install an 88 solar panel system, which after the 30% tax credit and net metering, would pay for itself in 8 years. The chair of our Facilities Committee was duly impressed.
LeftCoastYankee
I looked up Frederica Wilson, and she’s 82, so it’s not a long-shot to imagine her absences could be health related.
scav
I’d expect a good part of the counting the votes is exactly managing absenteeism, which votes don’t matter and which votes to haul out the stretchers for. If raw stats include votes on essentially naming post offices, I’m not sure if they’re as illuminating as they might be on the surface.
Ohio Mom
@Miss Bianca: Oh, she can bring the baby to work, this is an emergency.
Aunt Kathy
Well, thanks a lot, now I am $%&*! irate, lol. The new MD 6 rep, McClain-Delaney, has voted with Trump 64% of the time. I just left a msg at her office that someone needs to call me back & explain because I did not vote for a goddamned Republican.
Ohio Mom
@Baud: Broken water main. Those cars are totaled and a lot of flooded basements on that street. And no running water for those households.
Gretchen
@Baud: They’ll care when they lose their jobs and the economy crashes. Or will they just blame it on Democrats anyway?
I asked a guy on Facebook who was exulting in all the cuts if he was cool with firing 500 FAA safety employees on the same day there was another plane crash? He said that was Pete Buttigieg’s fault. They seem to be impervious.
gene108
@MazeDancer:
A recession will lower demand, reducing demand, and maybe even lower prices.
I guess it’s one way for Trump to keep his campaign promise to lower prices.
Geminid
@Gretchen: The people mouthing off on social media certainly are impervious. That’s only a small subset of Republican voters, though. They don’t neccesary represent the whole of self-identified Republicans, much less Republican-voting Independents.
Shalimar
@Geminid: I think the main reason is that Pelosi could trust her caucus members to actually vote the way they told her they would vote, which made it easier to negotiate with the few votes she needed to get to a win. Republicans lie, change their minds depending on who talked to them last, etc. I can’t count the number of times Republican Speakers were surprised by vote after vote on something they should have gotten assurances on.
Maxim
@Citizen Alan: Yeah. If I were Rep. Grijalva, I would feel bad about missing votes, but I wouldn’t quit if it meant I’d be looking at medical bankruptcy.
Anyway
Meh. RThugs have been able to do enormous damage without a single vote in the house. I don’t understand how quickly they were able to fire so many Fed employees — I thought there would be more guardrails.
Geminid
@gene108: A recession is the only way Trump can deliver lower gasoline prices. Industry media site Oil Price had an article a week or so ago saying that despite Trump signing an order declaring a national energy emergency, American oil producers have no incentive to invest in more production so long as prices remain in the $70-75 dollars per barrel range.
They also had an article titled, “OPEC tells Trump: We set oil prices, not you.”
I’ve found Oil Price to be a good source for news. Like most industry-focused news sites, they don’t shade their reporting in order to push political agendas. Their readers need reliable reporting upon which to base consequential decisions.
Most of Oil Prices reporting is oil and gas industry news: a new oil project here, a new liquified natural gas terminal there. And as the name implies, they report on prices. The home page is headed by the latest prices for Brent Crude, West Texas Intermediate, Murban (United Arab Emirates) and a natural gas price. There’s a tab below labeled, “Press here for prices in 150 additional markets.”
But the industry’s future intersects with the clean energy transition, and about 10% of their stories relate to big renewable energy projects or electrical grid improvements, with occasional reporting on significant technological advances.
Jacel
Had the sad news yesterday that my Rep Kevin Mullen (CA-15) has been going through health complications. Here’s his update in a letter to constituents:
“I have been dealing with complications from a recent knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. While the initial surgery was successful, I later developed a blood clot in my leg and then late last week was diagnosed with an infection in my knee that required immediate additional surgery and hospitalization.
“I am receiving ongoing treatment and am extremely grateful to the tremendous hospital staff for their care. I look forward to a steady recovery and a return to Capitol Hill as soon as the medical staff determines it is safe for me to fly.”
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@RevRick:
How much of your current lectricity needs be covered by that?
How did they calculate the 8-year payback? Meaning did they factor in rate increases, if so how much and how many?
Electricity demand is only gonna get higher, thus, the payback might be less than 8 years.
RevRick
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: It would essentially cover all electricity expenses over the course of the year. It factored in a3% annual increase, but it didn’t include an additional 10% tax credit for using American manufactured solar panels and that we’re located in a high poverty zone. We have a huge south-facing roof. We currently consume 59,500 kwhr/year.
K-Mo
@Baud: Yeah they’ll get a tax cut through, and it will have some spending cuts.
BUT