(Image by NEIVANMADE)
A quick unrelated note: The Israeli National Institute of Forensic Medicine has now confirmed – wishing the past 2 hours or so – that the second adult remains returned today are NOT Shiri Bibas. They have positive DNA matches on the remains of Oded Lifschitz and on the two Bibas children, but they have no match for Shiri Bibas or any other Israeli hostage. The remains are likely those of a Gazan Palestinian woman killed in the conflict.
There are three possibilities here:
- Shiri Bibas is dead, but the remains could not be recovered, so they sent this woman’s remains back (I assess this as low probability as it doesn’t further Hamas’s interests).
- Hamas was not holding Shiri Bibas, either PIJ or one of the criminal orgs was, and this is what they gave Hamas and Hamas sent them back not knowing they were not Shiri Bibas (I assess this as a moderate to high probability).
- One of the criminal orgs was holding Shiri Bibas and they trafficked her (I assess this as a moderate probability as it would explain why the children were killed shortly after they were kidnapped).
I expect that this will lead to a significant uptick in violence.
One other, but related note, before we get started. There is significant inaccurate information bouncing around today regarding what Trump and his natsec team are or might be doing in regarding the EU or Ukraine. It’s not disinformation, nor misinformation per se as the sources are legit. Rather, it’s remarks were made by senior leaders in different European states and in Ukraine that further reporting/clarifications indicated were innacurate.
As expected, last night’s Russian drone swarms were followed by missiles. Here’s the butcher’s bill.
Kherson, after last night’s russian aerial bomb attack on the residential building.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Rescuers have recovered the body of a man from beneath the rubble at the site of the russian air strike in Kherson. Rescue efforts are ongoing.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 9:11 AM
In the aftermath of last night’s russian strike on a residential building in Kherson, rescuers recovered the body of a mother of two from the rubble. Her 14-year-old twins, a boy and a girl, are among the injured.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Last night, russia launched a missile attack on critical infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainian Air Force reported
Up to 14 missiles were fired, including Kh-101/Kh-55SM, Kalibr/Iskander-K, & Iskander-M/KN-23. Details on the impact of the attack have not been disclosed
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:28 AM
I’ve seen the scale of destruction caused by a single Iskander missile strike, yet even I struggle to imagine the aftermath of 14 such strikes.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Peace Is Always a Common Cause – Especially the Peace We Must Leave for All Future Generations – Address by the President
20 February 2025 – 23:50
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today has been a very long day.
I held a Staff meeting, where I received briefings from the military on our positions at the front, the situation with supplies – contracts, weapons packages. The work continues, and I am grateful to every one of our partners who understands the need for strong positions – both on the frontline to protect our people and in diplomacy, where both strength and truth matter. There were reports on deep-strike operations against Russian military facilities and infrastructure supporting the war. For every two dollars invested in our long-range capabilities, we already ensure almost ten dollars in Russian losses. This is the dynamic we need – Russia must feel the cost of war to truly want peace. Additionally, the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service presented important reports today.
And today, we also had a lot of international activities. General Kellogg – a meeting that restores hope. We need strong agreements with the United States – agreements that will truly work. I gave instructions to work swiftly and very sensibly. Economy and security must always go hand in hand, and the details of the agreements matter – the better they are structured, the greater the results. With General Kellogg, we discussed the frontline situation, the need to release all our prisoners held in Russia, and the necessity of a reliable and clear system of security guarantees – one that ensures this war will never return and that Russians will never again destroy lives. We all need peace – Ukraine, Europe, America, everyone in the world.
I just spoke with President Macron – we coordinated our positions, discussed the next steps and views on security guarantees in particular. I spoke with the Prime Minister of Denmark – we appreciate that Mette and the people of Denmark feel what we are striving for. I spoke with the Prime Minister of Norway – not only about our bilateral relations but also about Europe’s future and energy security. I spoke with the President of Finland – there are good and important proposals, and we exchanged views on how the situation is developing. I spoke with the Prime Minister of Canada – I informed him about the current developments, and we discussed prospects within the G7 in particular. I also spoke today with the President of South Africa – I am grateful for the support, support of our sovereignty, and for the position that the peace process must be inclusive. Peace is always a common cause – especially the peace we must leave for all future generations. Thank you all for your help, and for the feeling of unity – unity that is as important now as it was in 2022. I am proud of our people – of everyone who fights, who helps, and who believes that evil must not prevail in wars.
And I began this day by honoring the memory of Ukrainians who died 11 years ago… Already 11 years. The Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred. The Heroes of Dignity. Eleven years ago, on this day, Russia’s first aggressive steps against our Crimea began. Ukraine will do everything to end this war – everything necessary. And we need a just peace – one worthy of the nation that so bravely defends itself. I am proud of you, Ukrainians! And I see how you defend the truth. This is extremely important. Thank you! Thank you for your support!
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Tbilisi, freezing cold. -2℃. 22:20. The 85th day of continuous protests against Georgian Dream’s Russian actions and decisions.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Protesters read out names of Georgians fallen in Russia’s war in Ukraine and chant “Glory to the Heroes!” after each name. This is our struggle too! They gave their lives for a free Georgia! 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:02 PM
The next week will be even worse. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Temur Katamadze, who was arrested for participating in protests, refuses to end his hunger strike. He has been on hunger strike for 35 days, consuming only water, and is now hospitalized.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Protesters read out names of Georgians fallen in Russia’s war in Ukraine and chant “Glory to the Heroes!” after each name. This is our struggle too! They gave their lives for a free Georgia! 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:02 PM
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 8:55 AM
The US:
“The US is opposing calling Russia the aggressor in a G7 statement on the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine” – shocking stuff from @christopherjm.ft.com on just how quickly the Trump administration is swinging behind Putin’s Russia. www.ft.com/content/7380…
— Evan O’Connell (@evanoconnell.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 9:09 AM
From The Financial Times:
The US is opposed to calling Russia the aggressor in a G7 statement on the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, threatening to derail a traditional show of unity, according to western officials.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s participation at a virtual G7 summit on Monday has also not yet been agreed, officials said, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s office announced she would not participate.
It comes after US President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for the war, described Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections” and suggested that Russia should be invited back into the G7.
The Trump administration doubled down on its criticism of Zelenskyy on Thursday, with national security adviser Mike Waltz accusing Kyiv of hurling “unacceptable” insults at the US president, and also demanding that Ukraine agree to a minerals deal.
The dispute over the planned G7 statement comes after Trump shocked Kyiv and its European allies by contacting Russian President Vladimir Putin and authorising bilateral talks that are aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
Trump has flattered Putin, agreed to many of his demands regarding the war and showed a willingness to quickly normalise Washington’s relations with Moscow.
US envoys are objecting to the phrase “Russian aggression” and similar words that have been used by G7 leaders since 2022 to describe the war in Ukraine, the officials said.
The world’s leading economies have traditionally issued a statement of support for Ukraine on February 24, the day on which Russia’s full-scale invasion started three years ago.
“We are adamant there must be a distinction made between Russia and Ukraine. They are not the same,” an official briefed on the matter told the Financial Times.
“The Americans are blocking that language, but we are still working on it and hopeful of an agreement.”
In a further snub, a planned news conference following talks between Zelenskyy and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, was cancelled after a US request, according to officials in Kyiv.
The US embassy in Kyiv declined to comment, but Zelenskyy said he had a “good conversation, full of details” with Kellogg on Thursday.
The two men discussed the situation on the battlefield, Zelenskyy said, “as well as effective security guarantees . . . We have proposed the fastest and most constructive way to achieve results.”
The change in US language on Russia marks a contrast with last year, when the country’s aggression was mentioned five times in the G7 leaders’ statement.
The 2024 statement said: “We call on Russia to immediately cease its war of aggression and completely and unconditionally withdraw its military forces from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.”
The Trump administration’s insistence on softening the language reflects a broader shift in US policy to describe the war as the “Ukraine conflict”, people familiar with the matter said.
Recent statements from the US Department of State use similar wording, including a readout from secretary of state Marco Rubio’s meeting on Tuesday with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh that twice mentions “the conflict in Ukraine”.
Waltz said Trump was “very frustrated” with Zelenskyy over his perceived ingratitude for American support during the war and Kyiv’s rejection of a US proposal to take rights to half of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
“Some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv, frankly — and insults to President Trump — were unacceptable,” he added.
Waltz called on Zelenskyy to reopen talks over a critical minerals deal, after Trump suggested the US was owed $500bn worth of Ukraine’s resources in exchange for Washington’s assistance to the war-torn country.
Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives, said there was “no appetite” for another funding bill for Ukraine in Congress, adding the conflict had to be brought to an end.
Elon Musk, the technology billionaire and key Trump adviser, hit out at Zelenskyy and repeated the president’s call to hold an election in Ukraine.
“In reality, he is despised by the people of Ukraine, which is why he has refused to hold an election,” Musk said.
A poll published this week showed the Ukrainian president enjoyed 57 per cent support at home, up from 52 per cent in December, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
More at the link.
The EU:
Europeans have to realize 3 things:
1. Trump prefers Putin over democratic Europeans.
2. Trump: “our friends are worse than our enemies” so the “friends” are no longer friends.
3. Trump has ended NATO & US support for democracies.— Anders Åslund (@andersaslund.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Tbh, I saw this and thought: “careful Economist, it can always get worse…”
#happythoughts— Ulrike Franke (@rikefranke.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:39 PM
France:
President Macron went online to discuss the situation in Ukraine and answer questions for an hour.
Among other things, he reaffirmed the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, emphasizing that he won fair elections. Macron highlighted that new elections are
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
currently unfeasible due to ongoing occupation, the large number of refugees, and people being on the frontline. He stressed the need for lasting peace first.
he also pointed out that Putin has a long history of manipulating elections in russia.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Back to Ukraine.
Make no mistake, the talks about “Zelensky not being nice to Trump” coming from US officials are a farce. Unfortunately, the Russians have presented the US with a list of demands outlining how they envision Ukraine’s future. While I can’t publish the list, I can say a few things:
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
it closely resembles the early versions of the Istanbul agreement, and it’s likely to leak soon. When the US started to follow some of the points from these demands, I have serious doubts that if Zelensky bows to Trump, it will make any difference.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Anybody with a minimal of at least two brain cells to rub together knows who started this! Ukrainian female POWs tortured and paraded naked through the snow by Russian troops. And we know who doesn’t have those two cells to begin with!
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-healt…
— hsack121 (@hsack121.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:08 PM
From The Telegraph:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Ukrainian women taken as prisoners of war are being tortured and humiliated by Russian soldiers in a systematic campaign of abuse, survivors have revealed.
Some have been subjected to cruel degradations, including being forced to march naked in the snow and expose themselves to their captors.
The Telegraph tracked down four women who agreed to speak out about the months and, in some cases, years they spent in captivity.
Their testimonies reveal the brutality with which Moscow’s forces treat the Ukrainians they have captured, providing evidence of what are almost certainly war crimes.
“They led us to the showers with bags over our heads, where we were forced to undress. We had to walk naked in front of the men and everyone else, bent over, through freezing cold water,” said Larysa Kycherenko, 53, who served in Ukraine’s National Guard.
“Afterwards, we were forced to sing the Russian anthem while naked. We returned to the cells in tears, utterly distraught, crying and in a state of hysteria… It was inhumane. To them, we were nothing.”
While they make up a small minority of the total number of POWs captured by Russia, women like Ms Kycherenko say the threats they faced were different to those of the men imprisoned alongside them.
“If it’s hard for men, it’s even harder for women – many of the women weren’t fighters,” she said.
Ms Kycherenko, her husband and her 34-year-old son were captured in occupied Mariupol in 2022 after they were betrayed by their neighbours.
ALL CLEAR!!!!
Much, much more at the link!
Paratroopers of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, on a “Husky” armored vehicle, dashed directly to the Russian position and manually dropped an anti-tank mine TM-62.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Kyiv:
⚡️Several waves of explosions reported in Kyiv.
Explosions were heard in Kyiv around midnight local time, according to a Kyiv Independent journalist on the ground. Air defense has been active in the capital.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) February 20, 2025 at 5:24 PM
The sounds of war in the sky of Kyiv right now
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Today is also the day of remembrance for the Heavenly Hundred.
Eleven years ago, our country changed forever when we broke away from Russia. Heavenly Hundred sacrificed for independent future of Ukraine, and today we stand stronger and more resilient—defending our freedom and values.
Ukrainians decide our own future.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Today in #Ukraine it’s the Day of the Heavenly Hundred.
This day in 2014 proved to be the bloodiest day of the revolution as the #Russia controlled government killed 48 protesters. In total 107 people died in the Euromaidan protests.
I was there, these are my photos.— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Odesa:
For the second day in a row, russia continues to destroy Odesa’s energy infrastructure. As a result of another night attack, ~5000 people have been left without electricity.
Light will overcome darkness eventually. Modern russia will be remembered as a terrorist state forever.
— UNITED24 (@u24.gov.ua) February 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
🔥🇺🇦 For the second night in a row, Russians have attacked a power facility in Odesa.
As a result of the attacks on Odesa district, 89,500 customers are without electricity. A 55-year-old man was also injured in the shelling and hospitalized.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 8:03 AM
💥 Night air battle over Odesa. Soldiers of the Ukrainian Navy destroyed 16 Shaheds.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Sumy Oblast:
Russians attempted to break into the Sumy region with two BMD-2s, but after several hits, they abandoned the equipment and ran away.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Donetsk Oblast:
The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a six-hour Russian assault in the Donetsk sector.
t.me/c/1657686284…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Do not try this at home!!!!
Improvised Russian rocket launcher built from scrap materials
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Moscow:
A research institute in Moscow, the Lebedev Institute of Precision Mechanics and Computer Engineering, which developed military tech and was under EU and Swiss sanctions, burned down overnight. The cause of the fire is undisclosed.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 8:12 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
She knows who started the war in Ukraine.
— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Today’s Dog of War is this pup who Nastia ran into while taking a walk. The doggie has the whole winter outfit together – from beanie to lil boots – to go through hopefully one of the last freezing weeks of the winter.
— Tim Mak (@timkmak.bsky.social) February 19, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Open thread!
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Tatarigami_UA/status/1892648639421440200#m
https://nitter.poast.org/KyivPost/status/1892658254624256068#m
Jay
SSDD
Now I understand why Wile E. Coyote is considered a genius,
it’s just in comparison to,…….
https://www.mediaite.com/news/outraged-gop-senator-falls-for-russian-propaganda-video-and-declares-not-another-dime-for-ukraine/
Jay
Dolt 47 is doing the “Afghan Peace Deal” with ruZZia and then some.
Dolt 47’s “minions” are still trying to arm twist Zelenskyy on “metals”.
The US is going to bail on
tobie
The Bibas brothers (4 yrs old and and 10 months old) were murdered one-month after their capture. I’m not sure how any nation would respond to something like this. What does a 10 month old have to do with a conflict? Why brutally murder a baby? I don’t know what has happened to Shiri Bibas but I doubt Hamas lost track of her. They’ve treated the hostages, or the corpses of hostages, as valuable bargaining chips to get more of their own fighters released. Why wouldn’t they do that in this case? They know the world won’t care or condemn them.
Jay
@tobie:
While Hamas is the “dominant” fighting group and Civil Authority in Gaza, there are 3 other “fighting groups” that are not under Hama’s command and control, (Judean Peoples Front vs the Peoples Front of Judea), along with at least 17 “criminal” organizations that only the criminals control.
So, under 16 months of indiscriminate attacks, Group A might have traded living hostages or hostage bodies to Group B for a Group B escape route, or food , weapons and ammo, or a “concession” on a tunnel, and so on and so on.
Insurgent groups are well known for their extensive bookkeeping and chains of custody, not,
and with no Medical facilities remaining in Gaza, and no access to family of the dead, it’s not like Hamas could do genetic testing
As for the kids being “murdered”, while Israel has killed by their own accounts 23 hostages, mostly by bombing indiscriminately, but also by shooting escaped Israeli hostages. All we know, is that they are dead. It’s not like Israel lies, right?
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Those last two were part of what I was referring to in the second note at the top of tonight’s post.
Adam L Silverman
@tobie: Hamas did not have actual control of, let alone accountability for, all the hostages. Some were being held by PIJ and some by Gazan criminal organizations. That doesn’t let Hamas off the hook, as this was there operation, but it does explain why no one knows where at least one hostage is – Itzik Elgarat who is not on either the to be returned alive or to be returned as remains lists – and why Shiri Bibas is now unaccounted for.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam.
tobie
@Jay: Israel has not killed 23 hostages by bombing. It has mistakenly shot 23 hostages.
If Hamas can claim to know exactly who was killed in this conflict, often immediately after a bombing, they can also EASILY keep track of the hostages they are using as bargaining chips.
Now it is true that Hamas lied about civilian casualties in 2005 and 2014 and no doubt has done so in 2023-2024 again. The Ministry of Health recently released figures on losses of fathers vs losses of mothers. Losses of fathers was 7x greater lending credence to the IDF claim that at least 20,000 of the dead are militants and possibly more. The conflict is complex. Yes, the IDF has committed war crimes. Yes, Hamas has endangered Gazans in embedding its fighters and weaponry in and under civilian structures. These two things can be true.
Geminid
@tobie: My understanding is that the IDF shot three hostages by mistake. Of the other deaths, the IDF has confirmed some deaths by Israeli bombs but not others.
Now there is reporting on the autopsies of the Bibis children indicating they were beaten to death. This claim will be hotly contested by Hamas and Palestinia Islamic Jihad and also by their many advocates. Like many of the facts of this war, we might not know the truth until the war has been over for a while, if then.
tobie
@Geminid: Times of Israel is reporting that Hamas killed the Bibas brothers with their bare hands. The IDF has been incredibly forthcoming about mistakes they’ve made in this war. They’ve copped to embarrassing or outrageous errors in a manner I have rarely seen any other military do. I have no reason to doubt their statement here. I have every reason to doubt whatever Hamas puts out and NGOs parrot.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-captors-murdered-children-ariel-and-kfir-bibas-with-their-bare-hands/