AP: “Nearly 40% of the federal contracts Trump’s administration claims to have canceled as part of its signature cost-cutting program aren’t expected to save the government any money, the administration’s own data shows.” https://t.co/teq8RoEUsN pic.twitter.com/aNyxBQAsZG
— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) February 25, 2025
… Data published on DOGE’s “Wall of Receipts” shows that more than one-third of the contract cancellations, 794 in all, are expected to yield no savings.
That’s usually because the total value of the contracts has already been fully obligated, which means the government has a legal requirement to spend the funds for the goods or services it purchased and in many cases has already done so.
“It’s like confiscating used ammunition after it’s been shot when there’s nothing left in it. It doesn’t accomplish any policy objective,” said Charles Tiefer, a retired University of Baltimore law professor and expert on government contracting law. “Their terminating so many contracts pointlessly obviously doesn’t accomplish anything for saving money.”…
Last week, DOGE posted an online “wall of receipts,” celebrating how much it had saved by canceling federal contracts. Now it has deleted all of the 5 biggest “savings” on that original list, after NYT and other outlets pointed out errors. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/u…
— Jenna Fowler (@jennafowler.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Before the gift link expires:
… The last of the original top five disappeared from the site in the early hours of Tuesday, even as the group claimed in its latest update that its savings to date had increased to $65 billion. The website offered no explanation for why it removed some items or how it arrived at the higher total. Neither the U.S. DOGE Service nor the White House responded to questions Tuesday morning.
The “wall of receipts” is the only public ledger the organization has produced to document its work. The scale of that ledger’s errors — and the misunderstandings and poor quality control that seemed to underlie them — has raised questions about the effort’s broader work, which has led to mass firings and cutbacks across the federal government.
These were the original five largest savings on its list:
– An $8 billion cut at Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The actual contract in question was worth $8 million. The mistake seemed to stem from an earlier, erroneous entry in a federal contracting database. But contracting experts said that the service should have known better: ICE’s entire budget is about $8 billion, making it implausible that one contract could be so large. The U.S. DOGE Service adjusted the figure on the site after The Times wrote about it, and said in a post on Mr. Musk’s X platform that it had “always used the correct $8M in its calculations.”
– Three $655 million cuts at the U.S. Agency for International Development. This was actually a single cut that was erroneously counted three times, as first reported by CBS News. That mistake also seemed to reflect a misunderstanding of the way government contracts work; they sometimes have “ceiling values” far in excess of what will be spent. Experts said this cancellation was unlikely to produce anything close to $655 million in savings even once. Now, the site lists a much smaller savings for these three cancellations: $18 million in total.
– A $232 million cut at the Social Security Administration. Here, Mr. Musk’s organization appeared to have mistakenly believed that the agency had canceled a huge information technology contract with the defense contracting giant Leidos. Instead, as reported by The Intercept, it had canceled only a tiny piece of it: a $560,000 project to let users mark their gender as “X.” The DOGE site now shows that small cut instead.
Some of the new canceled contracts added this week appear to make some of the same types of errors.
The largest savings on the latest version of its list is a $1.9 billion cut at the Treasury Department. But The Times reported last week that this contract was canceled last fall, when Joseph R. Biden Jr. was president — and when DOGE did not yet exist.
Accidental truths: The Trump/Musk Crime Syndicate is bankrupting the US government and driving down its value and reputation the way Trump bankrupted casinos and Musk blew $44 bn on Twitter so he could destroy 80% of its value.
— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Here’s a guy who sincerely hopes you’ll fall for the razzle-dazzle — just look at his smarmy little grin!
Here comes the phony numbers to sell the deal. The illusory smoke and mirrors of waste, fraud, abuse, and future tariffs. It’s 1981 and David Stockman redux.
— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Don’t know if the coming crash(es) will be fatal to Pastor Johnson, since we don’t know who’s running him, but I sincerely hope this is true:
I predict that the person who will appear most in Democratic ads across the country in federal, state and local races in the 2026 midterm elections will be Elon Musk, and he is going to elect a lot of Democrats and cost many Republican incumbents their seats.
— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 2:38 PM
This would be sad to watch if it wasn’t so damaging to our democracy.
— Keith Edwards (@keithedwards.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Notice how he says YOUR taxes and not OUR taxes.
— Mike (@miked5287.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 9:03 PM
To be fair this reads like a while Lotta whining that everyone at once told him to fuck all the way off and he's completely unused to that.
— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) February 23, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Jeffro
whew
it’s conspiracy and paranoia (and ketamine!) all the way down
A Ghost to Most
“Move Fast and Break Shit!” isn’t playing well, even with the cultists .
sentient ai from the future
ketamine-assisted solipsistic delusion
Jeffro
(btw just also wanna say ‘thanks’ to WaterGirl and Betty for their earlier posts today ;)
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Thank you AL for this post. After the recent discussion about how much work it is to produce one of these with links, I appreciate you even more! And glad to see MSM (even the FNYT) can see the BS in the DOGE receipts. Guess Elon isn’t used to anyone checking his work LOL.
Old School
The identities of dead people are being used to collect paychecks?
“Here’s a payment to a ‘Robert F Kennedy’. We have reports this person died 57 years ago!”
TF79
i.e. “We blew up the functionality of the federal government to save $6 per capita, so now we can fund a 2 trillion-dollar tax cut to the top 0.1%”
sentient ai from the future
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): he’s used to hyping vaporware and gee-whiz to a gullible subset of the financial sector composed largely of degenerate gamblers.
so yeah
Old School
The immigration system is going to be classy. Gold cards!
Captain C
@Jeffro: Perhaps also confession by accusation.
Jay
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/feb/24/canada-elon-musk-citizenship-parliamentary-petition
sentient ai from the future
@TF79: for some reason i’m reminded of hyperloop. my understanding is that at some point he admitted that its goal was not to actually build the thing, just to prevent municipalities from spending money on public transit infrastructure.
so the “public transit but without having to sit next to icky homeless or nonwhite people” model was entirely a ruse to protect his other financial interests.
VFX Lurker
Thank you for putting together these invaluable posts, Anne Laurie.
Baud
Republicans have never been honest with numbers.
Jay
@Old School:
Every nation that has created “Golden Passport” systems, has discovered that it’s key demographic are International Criminals.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Butbutbutbut, Jamie Dimon thinks the gubmint is inefficient and touts Edolph’s DOGE effort:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/24/jamie-dimon-us-government-inefficient-touts-elon-musk-doge-effort.html?__source=androidappshare
Someone should remind that asshole that government wasn’t inefficient when Tarp 1 and Tarp 2 bailed out his bank and the rest of his sorry ass industry.
Tumbrels, lots and lots of tumbrels.
sentient ai from the future
@Old School: right, because what people with $5m to spend on a golden visa/passport program want is the ability to work here. right.
i think the next shoes to drop are that this will be payable in cryptocurrency, and existing financial sanctions on russians will be lifted.
Geminid
I saw that Trump just endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy for Ohio governor. I think that’s gonna be a heavy lift.
MobiusKlein
@Jeffro: So some TBD entity did a bunch of work to trick the US Govt into a regular paycheck, but is not smart enough to make their bullet point of responses.
dmsilev
So, speaking of sending emails describing what you do to keep your job, perhaps Mr. Musk could write a message describing what tasks he’s done recently in carrying out his ostensible full time day job as Tesla CEO. Also his ostensible full time day job as SpaceX CEO. Also his ostensible full time day hobby as one of the elitest gamer dudes in the world.
sentient ai from the future
@dmsilev: its a wonder he has any time at all in the day to smoke weed or abuse ketamine
TBone
Stone cold Stonekettle with the truth about how to recruit American “assets” and more “intelligence”:
https://bsky.app/profile/stonekettle.bsky.social/post/3liwsrblhxs2t
Ohio Mom
@Geminid:Its not like I’m exactly swooning over anyone who has been mentioned as interested in running for governor of Ohio — the only Democrat I’m aware of is Amy Acton and she is a definite nonstarter— but I have a special disgust for Ramaswamy. I will take pleasure of Trump’s endorsement helps sink him.
sentient ai from the future
@TBone:
“OVER $100.000 PER YEAR”
i bolded the decimal point but im not sure that did the trick.
TBone
Fuck off, Elno (music).
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tZjxoZdWblI
Kelly
Somehow the FAA has decided to use Starlink for their new network. Odd choice given FAA controlled airports are rarely (never?) mobile and are adjacent to robust fiber broadband networks.
Baud
Via reddit
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: Ha ha!
Just in case that wasn’t intended to be funny, my earlier post wasn’t asking for thank yous or pats on the back. Just trying to share a point of view that folks might not have thought about.
And of course, my pet peeve, petty attacks on other people.
Raoul Paste
@Old School: Scam of the day! Gold cards! Let me guess who gets that 5 million.
Captain C
@TBone: Given Musk’s conversations with Putin (which apparently wasn’t interesting enough to keep in the news), I have to wonder how much of Musk’s rampage has this as a purpose, at least for Putin.
WaterGirl
@Kelly: Total coincidence!
Anyway
isn’t there something like that already? I believe that’s how ole’ Rupe got his green card.
Old School
@Baud: James Comer will not allow anyone to disparage the sitting President of the United States.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud:
Geminid
@Ohio Mom: Trump’s endorsement will help Ramaswamy afloat, I think, but he strikes me as unelectable. Maybe Trump thinks the endorsement will clear tbe field, but I expect Ohio has some ambitious Republican politicians who won’t defer to Trump.
I see Ramaswamy finishing third at best. Trump will probably have switched his endorsement to someone else by then. But Ramaswamy clearly likes to hear himself talk, and he’ll have a successful campaign in that respect.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
An important generalization.
TBone
@Captain C: my guess is as good as anyone’s, but Stonekettle knows wtf he is talking about!
TBone
@Baud: bwahahaha, Maxwell’s silver hammer!
TBone
@Kelly: jfc
p.a
Preznit Dollar Tree Shop
TBone
@sentient ai from the future: 😎
Ruckus
@Jeffro:
We used to call it bull and shit.
Now of course as that is ALL our leading moron knows – bull and shit, everything is going to be about bull and shit.
Bill Arnold
@Kelly:
Not clear from articles that it is more than exploratory, and for a few locations without ground-based links. Might make sense as a backup, though depending on Mr. Musk for primary network connectivity would be insane when there are ground-based alternatives; the recent threats against Ukraine mean that starlink should no longer be trusted.
Solar maximum. Nice CME today, pointed away from earth.
https://spaceweather.com/images2025/25feb25/farside_teal.gif
lowtechcyclist
Wow, these sound like exactly the sort of people Musk and DOGE say they’re looking to get rid of! And given what they’ve already spent, that would save hundreds of millions just in FY 2025!
TBone
We are having a false Spring this week, just like Lauren Bacall told Mr. J. B. Books.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G1Yek4oF2SA
We will be back to sixteen degrees later this week. The cats are restive.
NotMax
Repeated from downstairs.
DOGE in disarray?
20+ IT people resign en masse.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud: Guess those Republicans can’t stand to be even in the same room with the truth.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Ain’t no picnic for the truth either.
MazeDancer
@Old School:
Russia, Russia, Russians was my first thought. And a reporter actually asked if oligarchs could get one.
Surprise answer: Yes
dmsilev
Like pretty much all giant corporations, Apple has no real soul. However, once in a while, a hero rises from within the organization…
NotMax
The poster child for waste, fraud and abuse sits in the Oval Office.
Baud
@NotMax:
That should be made into a literal poster.
Bill Arnold
@TBone:
The Seasons:
Winter
Fool’s Spring
Second Winter
Spring of Deception <– you are here
Third Winter
The Pollening
Mud Season
Actual Spring
Summer
Hell's Front Porch
False Fall
Second Summer
Actual Fall
TBone
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Luigi? Is not enough of a reminder, apparently.
TBone
@Bill Arnold: ha! A man who knows the classics is a man after me own scalawag heart!
Redshift
@NotMax:
Sadly, no. They’re the good employees from the agency DOGE took over after everyone pointed out that it wasn’t a part of the government. They did good work, and it sucks to lose them, but they’re heroes for calling out that they’re resigning because the work they’re now being asked to do violates their oath to the Constitution.
TBone
@dmsilev: as a taker of dictation for too many years, may I just say how much I fucking love that.
NotMax
@Redshift
Not only heroes but the more and the quicker it is hollowed out the closer it comes to imploding.
Jackie
@Baud: Good for Maxwell Frost! LOL
Was that Mace whining off camera?
HopefullyNotcassandra
Meanwhile, DOGE’s savings continue to drop.
The Honorable Amir Ali “ordered the Trump administration to pay foreign aid funds to contractors and grant recipients by 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday night, saying there was no sign that it had taken any steps to comply with his earlier order that the administration’s freeze on the funds be lifted.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/judge-gives-trump-administration-wednesday-night-deadline-pay-foreign-aid-funds-2025-02-25/
The AUSA did not answer basic questions.
This is the third loss in court for the GOP cringe crew today.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Redshift:
PBS has an extensive look at what happened:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/21-federal-tech-workers-resign-rather-than-help-musk-dismantle-critical-public-services
TBone
@HopefullyNotcassandra: thank you – its so hard to keep up. Dread Pirate Heather Cox Richardson is busy, busy, busy!
I’m also counting on Rachel M. again, and LOD if I can stay awake that long. No naps for the weary today.
NotMax
Would we could put up a billboard in Lafayette Park.
DAYS WITHOUT AN OUTRAGE: 0
Scout211
For Trump, 3 court losses in 90 minutes today.
. . .
. . .
. . .
Prometheus Shrugged
@MobiusKlein: And, even more troubling, continues to mark their gender as X, in clear contempt of the Executive Order.
HopefullyNotcassandra
@sentient ai from the future:
Apparently, there is tunneling happening in Las Vegas without any pesky government review or inspection of course. So far, worker injuries seem routine and the company repeatedly dumped waste water into city drains. Recently, (reward this behavior?) the city removed the “special” permitting requirements from the company.
Today, the Boring company tunnel is self regulating in Las Vegas.
https://www.propublica.org/article/elon-musk-boring-company-las-vegas-loop-oversight
Self regulation has generally been a failure in this country, from savings and loans to banks, to shirtwaist companies.
I hope for the sake of Las Vegas, its population and visitors, this time will be the exception.
The chainsaw wielding man says it is better to pay a price after a problem arises rather than halt big projects.
That sounds nice, except when we recall the South African made certain the head of the FAA (who was confirmed with 98! votes) resigned for daring to impose nearly $700,000 worth of fines on Space X (the temerity of a public servant doing his job!).
karen gail
@TBone: Jim Wright at Stonekettle Station is my first to read then Heather Cox Richardson; I usually read them with my morning coffee. Carefully in Jim’s case so that I don’t end up with snorted coffee on computer screen.
Lily
@Redshift: Hope there might come an opportunity when they could be called to testify about lawbreaking . (So that they could feel free to do so regardless of some kind of attempt to prevent them.)
Jay
Jackie
And once registered, a one way ticket to Guantanamo Bay?
NO undocumented immigrants are going to do this voluntarily!
lowtechcyclist
@HopefullyNotcassandra:
Best case seems to be that it will shuttle people through tunnels via regular passenger car (Tesla, of course) which will have next to no effect on congestion on the Strip, and indirectly cost the city a great deal through a shell game involving different quasi-public orgs.
I still can’t believe anyone with a major role in running a city thought this could be a good idea. If you want a damn subway, just build a damn subway.
Jay
https://www.mediaite.com/news/leaked-25b-military-contractor-pitch-promises-trump-12-million-deportations-by-midterms-report/
NotMax
@lowtechcyclist
“How often the Krell engineers must have ridden in this little car.”
//
lowtechcyclist
@Jay: Hey, I know! DOGE can cancel that (even though it doesn’t exist yet) and claim a $25B savings!
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Heh.
Baud
Via Reddit
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
OT: Is it true that Ukraine has agreed to that mineral deal?
Kim Walker
In response to Jay at number 72: I’m laughing! I’ve been wondering where Eric Prince and his posse was and when he would try for a come-back.
Bostondreams
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I believe it’s significantly revised so that its joint ownership and exploration.
Baud
@Bostondreams:
Whatever it takes to survive.
kindness
Republicans rule is predicated on lying to the citizens in every instance. And their fucking idiot voters agree with them even when they know they are being lied to. I swear to the FSM…
Scout211
Sometimes, it’s the little things.
Mai Naem mobil
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Jamie Dimon is the ultimate ‘stick your hand in the wind and suck up to whoever is in power’ dickwad.
JFC, I hate these people. I listen to radio more than anything. These idiots – Orange Mosquito, Edolph, Zuckfuck, Thiel and Bozo boy are assuming that only the RW have crazies. I’ve heard a few people call in to leftwing radio and there’s a few people who seem pretty close to the edge. Screw these people on their Medicaid, VA benefits, VA care, SNAP benefits and they will go over the edge and they won’t have anything to lose. The recent townhalls these GOP congress critters are just a small taste of what’s coming if they don’t very quickly start pushing back Edolph and Orange Mosquito.
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Among others, Axios’s Barak Ravid has reporting on this story.
His article is titled “Trump says Zelensky to visit Washington Friday to sign minerals deal” but it’s sourced more broadly:
The article gets into some of the details of the agreement and is worth reading if you are interested.
TBone
@Kim Walker: I’m not laughing. He and his sister Betsy DeVos are evil motherfuckers. Camps on military bases is a very dangerous game.
“Processing” is a rather ironic description since due process is not happening.
Daddy oligarch Edgar Prince:
evodevo
@Bill Arnold:
yep! here in KY we have dogwood winter (April cold spell) and blackberry winter (May cold spell)….
Old farmers here say KY has two seasons: summer and mud. (Though THIS one has been the hardest winter in several years – minus 17 on my woodshed thermometer at one point)
Ruckus
@lowtechcyclist:
We have a subway here in LA now.
Works reasonably well. They are still building extensions, one of which goes right where I end up now by taking the train and a bus. In not all that long from now I’ll end up taking a train and the subway right to where I’m heading.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Hey, in other perky economic news brought to us by our new techbro-assisted GOP overlords, Consumer Confidence had it’s sharpest one month decline in 3.5 years:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-confidence-deteriorates-sharply-february-2025-02-25/
Of course people like Jamie Dimon are immune from such minor inconveniences of the plebs.
karensky
@Old School: Oh my, what a creepy twist om pay to play.
Bostondreams
@Baud: Oh, totally agreed. Cannot blame them at all, but glad Zelensky and his people got the Orange thing to back off the bullshit, at least a bit.
Geminid
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: It sounds like a recession.is on it’s way; could be a bad one.
Jackie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
TBone
@TBone: Deputizing evil volunteers…
Our species has learned nothing.
New Deal democrat
Speaking of the economy, econo-nerds might take note of the fact that the 10 year minus Fed funds yield spread has re-inverted, and the 10 year minus 3 month spread has declined back to 0.00%. A similar thing happened in both 1989 and 2006.
if you don’t speak bond market, that means it is saying that what might have been a soft landing looks more like turning into a recession a year or so from now.
Also, the stock market, which was higher by 40% YoY the week before the November election, is now *down* since November 9.
You might not like Wall Street investors, but their $$$ speak a non-partisan language.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@TBone:
It brings to mind not just the obvious historical parallel to Nazi Germany’s concentration camps, but our own shameful past when we forced Japanese-Americans into internment camps during WW2
I don’t trust these people to respect human rights. They’ve already proven they don’t during Trump 1 with the family separations and the treatment of the separated children
Jay
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Precedent! I’m sure should such a case go before the Extreme Court, they’ll site that little historical tidbit as the reason for upholding said camps should they come to fruition.
Man I wish I were joking.
TBone
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): you have learned.
https://newrepublic.com/post/191929/maga-erik-prince-vigilante-deportation-officers-ice
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
We need Wall Street and rural people to turn on Republicans. Like has nothing to do with it.
TBone
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: thank you.
Jackie
Is this gonna be a repeat of everyone at the table groveling over FFOTUS one by one like 2017? But including fealty to president Muskrat? <vomit>
edited to add context
sentient ai from the future
@lowtechcyclist: why just build a damn subway, when you can have a proto-subway where the cars can catch fire and leave no way for people to escape when the next one ALSO catches fire?
risk of death is worth it for not being around poor/homeless/nonwhite people, no?
TBone
@Jay: all I can say right now, again
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bostondreams:
@Geminid:
@Jackie:
Thanks guys. I still don’t like this. It’s a shakedown by a gangster. We would’ve been compensated by reparations from Russia
TBone
@TBone: 2USV
cmorenc
@NotMax: Speaking of implosion, I wish James Carville would have / could have explained in more articulate detail by what exact process / sequence his predicted soon implosion of the Trump admin will occur, short of abrupt willingness of the house to impeach him and 2/3 of the senate to convict him.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
@Bostondreams:
@Geminid:
@karensky:
@Jackie:
From what I understand, it is Ukraine’s empty promise of nothing, in exchange for the US’s promise of no security guarantees.
Ukraine already has a “Rare Earth Minerals” deal with the EU, signed years ago, where in EU Companies will do the development, and split the profit’s 50/50 with Ukraine. That deal covers only Unoccupied Ukraine’s proven rare earths.
This “deal” covers unproven “rare earths” that may or may not be, that are under ruZZian boots right now, and like most resource development deals, has a stop watch on it.
But we will see when and if the deal is signed.
sentient ai from the future
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): agreed, but what you have to keep in mind is that the shitbird is also incredibly fucking stupid. in-person maneuvering by zelynskyy is going to produce a better outcome than at-a-distance negotiation unless putin is somehow in the room with them.
TBone
It’s a wrap, I’m going in armed to the teeth, whatever I can get my hands on. After all, I live in a Second Amendment Sanctuary muni.
Melancholy Jaques
@Geminid:
Who will be the Democratic nominee?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@TBone:
It’s hard not to see the parallels. It’s why I have a very, very hard time not flipping out on Trump supporters who still wear their cult uniforms in public. But I’ve resisted the impulse so far
TBone
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): stay low to the ground, please.
INCOMING! WTF, OVER!?!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
So, more of the same like with Canada and Mexico giving Trump “concessions” when in reality they either already existed, or were nothingburgers
Bostondreams
In fun news for Florida folks, Morgan and Morgan, the law firm that dominates airways and ads in this state (and interestingly I know in Massachusetts too; I was stunned to see an ad with John Morgan and his family as Sox players when I went to Fenway a couple years ago), was sanctioned for using a chatbot. Ha!
sentient ai from the future
@TBone: yes, let’s permit this particular vicious goon to hire, outside of the normal channels, a bunch of vicious goons who may or may not have been dismissed from previous roles for malfeasance of various kinds. oh, and because we are going outside the normal channels we will not know about those prior episodes, should they exist.
that should work out well.
Geminid
@Melancholy Jaques: I don’t know. That race might be unwinnable by a Democrat. It might be winnable if Republicans nominate Ramaswamy, but that is one of the reasons he won’t get the nomination.
TBone
Hi Dad.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qXrs2Hri2Xs
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@TBone:
You’re absolutely right, I should. I’m passionate and tend to speak my mind a lot.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Geminid:
@Melancholy Jaques:
I agree it will. I think Tressel’s elevation to Lt. Gov by the Ohio GOP was to fend something like this off
Jackie
So NBC/MSNBC has Republican Never trumper/rabidly anti MAGA Michael Steele hosting Joy Reid’s time slot tonight.
I really like Steele, he detests FFOTUS as much as Reid does – if not more; but I guess a black republican (in name only) is ok – whereas a Democratic black woman OR man is not?
Hmmmm…
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
They can’t even get their lies straight, DJTdiot says Zelenskyy is coming to the US later this week to sign the deal.
Ukraine says that their Foreign Minister and Lil’Marco will maybe signing it next week in Kyiv.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@New Deal democrat:
Do you have any thoughts or opinions on Bogleheads-type general advice of “staying the course” on investing and the general advice against “this time is different” type thinking? That one should tune out the noise? Do you think such ideas that worked in the past, may not hold true in the near future?
Another Scott
Fritschner is covering the House budget vote today. The MAGAts didn’t have the votes because Dems who were in the hospital showed up, so they pulled the vote and sent everyone home. Then a few minutes later, they tried to call enough people back to reopen the vote.
C-span.org shows them apparently voting with one GQPer voting No so far.
We’ll see what happens…
Grr…
Best wishes,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
So much for not fighting.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Go bullish on Funeral Homes.
sentient ai from the future
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): there is risk in staying the course just as there is risk in doing the flight-to-safety thing. how you assess those risks is something only you can do for yourself.
but “happy talk” and “let’s just avoid politics” is necessarily tilting your assessment of risk, just as all your other ideological priors would.
i think krugman wouldnt be commenting so frequently that wall street (a lot of which is degenerate gamblers rather than investors) seems to be just denying the underlying risks that are gathering, if everything was genuinely ok.
Ohio Mom
@Melancholy Jaques: I only know of one Democrat runnng for governor so far, Dr. Amy Acton. She was the director of the Ohio Department of Health during the first part of Covid.
Do I need to say that Red Ohio resented her leadership since it was evidenced-based? She’s not exactly a strong candidate but probably no Democrat could be a strong enough candidate.
Geminid
@Another Scott: I wonder if the “No” vote was Thomas Massie or someone else. Rep. Massie sounds like he’s unpersuadable.
New Deal democrat
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It’s a very bad thing to take investment advice from pseudonymous people on the internet, but let me share this with you:
I knew a number of people who were very self-congratulatory about getting their money out of investments before the autumn 2008 crash.
When I followed up with them a few years later, *not a single one* had ever put their money back in. I said, “you realize you would have been better off just leaving your money in, right?” And they all sheepishly agreed.
When you time the market, you have to be right not just once, but twice.
FWIW
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
OT:
Does anybody else side-eye people wearing hats and clothing with the American flag on them? Stuff like this? Or this?
Especially the stuff that looks military-esque? There’s almost always a flag logo resembling the flag patch you see on real uniforms that police, soldiers, firefighters, etc wear
These people look like slobs imo. No fashion sense whatsover. And it’s almost always white people. Whatever happened to dressing up, even business casual, when you go someplace, like the grocery store? I see people dressed like this during the work week too.
For context, I’m fairly young. People didn’t dress like this 10 or 15 years ago
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: I thought earlier today there were four committed “no” votes on their side. Massie and Spartz are the two I remember.
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
Thanks, Obama.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-ai-spending-reminds-jim-chanos
Might be some ideas here.
lowtechcyclist
@Gin & Tonic:
Right now it’s 216-213 in favor, with 1 Rethug and 3 Dems having not voted. And only 1 Rethug having voted against. Maybe one of them is the GOP nonvote.
At any rate, unless all 3 Dems show up tout suite, it passes
ETA: Never mind, the last Republican showed up and voted in favor. 217-213, and only 3 nonvotes. It passes.
HopefullyNotcassandra
@TBone: Glad to spread news that the law lives for a lovely change.
Have a warm and wonderful evening.
TBone
@TBone: my man from Philly has some words (video).
https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/fuck-trump-black-man-spy-has-reached
Support your local artists and gunfighters.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Figured it would. This is their chance.
George
Other commenters might already have noted this, but the post-fact rationale by Musk regarding the emails is just something he concocted after he got a little pushback.
I don’t doubt that his intention was to continue to fire federal employees, using the rationale that the accomplishments noted in the email responses did not justify the respondents’ positions as being inherently governmental.
As with the previous round of firings in which employees were terminated due to “performance” issues even if they had not received poor performance appraisals and had, in some cases, even gotten performance awards, no one would have stopped Musk from firing government workers for whatever reason he wanted to.
TBone
@HopefullyNotcassandra: I’m trying, thank you! With the aid of sedation and the knowledge of good friends!
Jackie
@Gin & Tonic:
What’shisname from TN was another – the one who sucker-elbowed McCarthy in the back. FFOTUS was browbeating the holdouts earlier today, so “we shall see…”
Nebbermind, I see it passed. Does this mean Medicaid is f’ed?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
That was a really good article. It’s by Paul Krugman, so of course it was. Thank you. So, “AI” is probably overhyped and it’s causing a bubble
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
This is going to piss off a lot of people.
ETA:
Does this vote mean we don’t have the leverage in the House we hoped we did?
Nukular Biskits
DAMMIT, PEOPLE! IT’S FUCKING TIME TO TAKE TO THE STREETS!
These Republican fuckers in the House just voted to all but defund Medicaid so they can give billionaires a tax cut.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
It’s also the StockMarket continuing to ignore “soft” economic data. So stay away from tech, self driving cars, etc, anything with AI, look at industries and stocks that are recession proof or recession resistant.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
It pissed off @Nukular Biskits.
TS
@Old School:
I hate so much that people can buy citizenship in any country – mine (Australia) included. The assumption that $$ = competence or smarts or anything other than a rich forebear is astounding. Every government of every flavour does it – trump is openly saying what most others just do.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
We have no leverage if Republicans stay unified.
cckids
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
No surprise, right?
I will never stop being pissed that during Obama’s and Biden’s economic recoveries, business “leaders” were forever saying they couldn’t invest, or build factories, or whatever, because “uncertainty”. Meanwhile, Trump – who is the absolute DEFINITION of uncertainty, gets a pass from those f*cking people and the media covering them.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
The “leverage” only existed if the Rethugs split. If the Rethugs split along the insane and the batshit insane lines, the insane would have had to cross the isle for Democratic votes, which they would only get with significant compromise on the contents.
Nukular Biskits
@Baud:
I’m not prone to hyperbole but this is absolute bullshit.
They know what they’re doing and they simply do not care! And, yes, I’m sober. LOL
Baud
@Nukular Biskits:
I wasn’t criticizing you. You are correct. I hope people wake up.
TS
@dmsilev:
If anyone has watched the current UK enquiry in regard to the Post Office – after 20 years of incompetence/incorrect rulings, the CEOs/Board members/lawyers are being asked why did they not pick up on the disaster of their computer system which ended up sending people to jail for false accounting/fraud. It is interesting to see them squirm as the KC who is counsel to the enquiry leads them down the path to admit their own errors/incompetence etc. Unlikely any will pay the price some of the postmasters falsely had to pay, but we can hope.
Nukular Biskits
@Baud:
My good sir, it’s way passed time to wake up.
ETA: I know you weren’t criticizing me.
A look from you and I would fall from grace
And that would wipe the smile right from my face
Jay
@cckids:
How is Foxconn Wisconsin doing?
Jackie
This:
Followed by this:
ETA: Michael Steele predicts it won’t pass in the Senate.
HopefullyNotcassandra
@lowtechcyclist:
A lovely subway (or metro) with fairytale details would have been quite the boon for Las Vegas. It could be done. It could be done beautifully with fountains and sparkles. It could be clean with food/drink vendors and long legged ladies singing melodiously to welcome the weary, all while slot machines ping’ed away.
But that would not benefit the South African. He appears to be an endless open maw of need.
If we make it through this mess, perhaps we should take a page from Newt Gingrich and take babies from their wealthy (neglectful? Abusive? What causes such a needy man? Idk?) parents for the sake of the general welfare and the kids, too.
We have focused too much on the ghost problems of the GOP* and too little on men who have a pathological need (that can never be satiated) to humiliate or own everyone and everything.
I am kidding ( barely )
* nonsense designed to manipulate people (Frank Luntz crapola)
Jay
@TS:
The US has sold Citizenship for a long time now, (EB-5 Visa, starting at $800K, running up to $1.05 million), DJTdiot just jacked the price up to $5 million.
Nukular Biskits
Okay, folks. Like Baud said, I’m pissed.
It’s time to start protesting. I’ve got to figure out the logistics, but I want to protest outside my Republican Rep. Mike Ezell’s office this week, maybe Friday or possibly next Monday.
I’ve never protested before. That’s how pissed I am.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Musk endorsed Ramaswamy, as well, but that might actually have been intended as an insult.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Filthy rich international criminals is the demographic Trump wants to attract.
Sure Lurkalot
@New Deal democrat: That’s good advice, I agree even if I didn’t get horribly wiped out in 2008 and still dove back in for a nice upward (but a little bumpy) ride.
I believe Goku is under 30 so seeking investment advice from a leans 20-50 years older community probably not prudent.
Learn and do it on your own or find an advisor. After one bad experience early on, I always ask their political party. Won’t disclose or answer “R”? No thanks. Certain values must align over yield. Being childless helps that calculus.
Kelly
@New Deal democrat:
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Let me add that a few years after I started saving in a 401k the October 1987 Black Monday crash happened. I didn’t know what to do so I didn’t do anything. I have continued this policy up to and including the COVID downturn. It’s been OK.
I own Vanguard index funds. I have rebalanced my holdings to 50% stocks 50% bonds but that’s because I’m a 68 year old retiree.
MagdaInBlack
@Nukular Biskits: ( It was the heat of the moment.)
Jay
In the ’80’s, if you wanted to flash a card, it was a Gold Card, (DJTdiot’s brain rot on display)
In the ’90’s it was a Platinum Card,
By the ‘Aught’s it was a Black Card,
we know that the US will never offer a Black Card to full citizenship.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Way OT question, but I’m not sure I’ll still be awake for Adam’s thread later – I got the name of a professional contact, I suspect they are Taiwanese or Cantonese, but I’m not sure, and I don’t know their gender and have no good way to ask. What do you think: Chue Kue. Or, looking at it, maybe that could be Hmong or Lao?
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: Yesterday, I posted a gift link to a WSJ article describing how the top 10% of earners are now driving nearly 50% of all consumption in the US. Just another piece of evidence of the growing pathologies in the US socio-economy, & who have disproportionate benefited from the recent period of turbulence (& indeed every turbulent period going back decades). The article also described how conservative most people in the bottom 80% have become w/ their spending. That also jives w/ the general mood on the economic leading up to the election.
BTW, hasn’t the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note been depressed for years now, indicating a lack of global demand for US long term US debt, & possibly skepticism about the longer term viability of the US economy & sustainability of its elevated debt level? That has been the analyses showing up on my timelines, but I am not in finance, so a lot of the arguments go over my head.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: Different Republicans will say “No,” but Rep. Massie seems to really mean it. But I guess the bill has passed, so we can see if Massie in fact held out.
cckids
Oh hey, that never happened. Must be Biden’s fault. //s
TBone
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I met an older, white gentleman in a red, white, and black American flag leather jacket at my bank today. He topped off his ensemble by wearing an Australian bush hat!
I complimented him on his hat!
TBone
@Nukular Biskits: come
sit by mestand on the corner Protest Soapbox at the Post Office with me!YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Unfortunately, it is impossible tell a person’s gender from their names phonetically. That is the case whether it is phoneticization of standard Mandarin, Cantonese, Hokkien, Hakka, or any member of the Sino-Tibetan language family (which I think Hmong is part of). The phoneticization does appear to be that for Teochow, Hokkien or Hakka diasporas living in SE Asia. Mainland Chinese use the Pinyin system of phoneticization developed by the PRC government, & those from Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macau use Wade-Giles.
Knowing the characters gives one a better chance, but the error rate would still be > 25%. I don’t think you will violate any cultural faux pas by just asking directly your contact’s gender. Or maybe ask if the person has an English nickname, which the vast majority of ethnic Chinese (wherever they hail from) tend to have if they interact a lot with foreigners.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
@YY_Sima Qian:
or ask for a link to their LinkedIn.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: That’ll work.
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): This is the first of several conseqential House votes we’ll see in coming weeks. Veteran (39 year) Capitol Hill reporter Jamie Dupree posted last night:
As for leverage, I think this is a situation where House Democrats won’t have leverage until they do. That will be if and when Speaker Johnson can’t wrangle his fractious caucus into near unanimity. I guess I would say Democrats have potential leverage, at least as long as they can stay united.
It’s the job of Hakeem Jefrries, Catherine Clark and Pete Aguilar plus the rest of the leadership team to keep them united. And of course it’s the responsibility of the members themselves.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for taking the time to respond so thoroughly. In kind of a bind, since we’d like to determine the gender before making a first contact. LinkedIn doesn’t help, as this person has essentially just a placeholder profile there, with no real info.
Oh well, I’ll try some other avenue.
Matt McIrvin
@Kelly: I heard some time back that with most retirement funds, the people who do the best are people who literally forgot they had the account. Trying to time the market or actively shuffle things around in response to the news usually doesn’t help.
I have most of my retirement money in this “target year fund” that is supposed to gradually roll over to less risky investments as I get closer to retirement. Makes sense to me. But those accounts have ridden through a bunch of stock-market crashes and recoveries.
Of course, Trump could fuck everything up to the point that it’s not clear what’s less risky investments any more.
Matt McIrvin
@TS: I think the assumption usually isn’t that rich people have any particular virtue, it’s that rich people have money and we want some of it.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Perhaps a google search with Name, Company, position, etc.
Jeffro
@WaterGirl: I know that…just sending thanks anyway!
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Oh, question,
why do you need gender?
Is it to avoid using the wrong pronouns, which may or may not be accurate,
there are lots of ways to use gender neutral language with someone.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: To address a formal letter. “Dear Mr/Ms” is odd, it would be nice to have it right on the first try.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Just use the person’s first name?
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
The common gender neutral salutation is Dear (NYM), or just NYM,
Eg. To Jay XXXXXXXXXXXX,
It was great to hear from you,………
or Hi, Jay XXXXXXXXX
etc.
I remember the days when Mr, Mrs, Miss, Ms was thorny.
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian:
Actually it’s been the reverse. If there was a lack of demand for US$ bonds, higher % yields would have to be offered. And yet even after 15 years of pretty serious budget deficits, a 10 year U.S. Treasury bond still only yields about 4.50%. If investors started to lose faith in the US (which might start to happen!), that yield would start to rise past 5% or even 6%.
Hope that is helpful.
Kayla Rudbek
Finally used 5Calls app tonight (I wound up having the script open on my iPad and calling with my phone). I was very angry and left voicemail (talking at 19 to the dozen) for Beyer and Warner. Kaine wasn’t taking voicemail at all (I will vote for whoever primaries Warner and Kaine, Beyer seems to be making some efforts and has auto-reply on website submissions so he is borderline grade between D+ and C-). I much prefer typing up my constituent input on the websites and I hope that the next Congress joins the 21st century in paying equal attention to written word and telephone calls.
I only called on five topics because that was all I could stand to do tonight. Five more topics tomorrow night.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: You are right of course.
I meant that the 10 year bond yield was high (at least by the standards to which people had become accustomed to in the age of QE), suggesting lack of demand. Total brain freeze.
Can you briefly explain why the 10 yr – 3 mo spread declining to zero would presage a recession? Or point to a source that would be friendly to laymen? Thank you!
Geminid
@Kayla Rudbek: I think Tim Kaine will retire in 2030. He was on the fence about running last time. I’m hoping Mark Warner hangs it up in 2028. Rep. Jennifer McClellan would make a good replacement in my opinion.
I think I know who will replace Senator Kaine: Governor Abigail Spanberger.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian:
@New Deal democrat:
What I had gotten from perusing the Google search results & ChatGPT/DeepSeek is that inverted yield curve indicates low investor confidence in economic prospects & thus flight to the safety of long term US Treasury, as well as the expectation that the Fed will decrease rates (short term? long term? both?) in response to a recession.
Where I struggle w/ the mechanistic cause & effect is that wouldn’t concerns about US economic health reduce demand for long term US debt, too, & thus increase the yield to the 10 year Treasury note? I suppose inverted yield curve as leading indicator makes sense if the baseline assumption is whatever the short term economic difficulties the US might face in the short term, the long term trajectory is undoubted & thus long term US debt represents the safest asset class. However, the US has spent the past 17 years continually undermining these bedrock assumptions (eroding governance capacity, ballooning debt, political disfunction, accumulating economic pathologies, escalating financial warfare, etc.), are these traditional signals still relevant in this new world?
The sharp rise in the price of gold over the last couple of years would suggest a general desire to diversify away from USD assets, let alone US treasury, & perhaps a preference for US equities as far as USD assets are concerned over US debt.
Of course, the Trumpian misrule of the past month+ has done more to undermine basic US credibility than the previous 17 years combined.
Kayla Rudbek
@Geminid: I would love to have two women Senators. From your mouth to God’s ears.
Leto
Elizabelle
@Geminid: Yes. I would love to see Senators McClellan and Spanberger. In that order, so that the junior Senator could finish her term as Governor. And both of them have represented me in Congress. Quite well.
Lot of cleanup to do on Aisle Youngkin.