(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Russia hammered Ukraine with drone swarms earlier tonight.
russian drone just struck Kyiv
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Kyiv right now.
A russian drone struck a house, which burned down. A 19-year-old girl got injured.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
“Four russian drones hit Kharkiv: one in the roadway in the city center, one in an apartment on the second floor of a multi-story building, and two more in a cafe,” – reported Mayor Terekhov.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Kharkiv tonight after the russian drone strike on the city
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Kramatorsk:
One person was killed and 14 others, including four children, were injured in a russian attack on Kramatorsk today
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine Must Be Strong So That Diplomacy Can Work Successfully Through That Strength – Address by the President
25 February 2025 – 21:03
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
I spoke with President Macron about his visit to America; we are coordinating our actions. Emmanuel, thank you for your support! Today, I also spoke with the Prime Minister of Belgium. Particularly about assistance to Ukraine. Particularly about the use of frozen Russian assets. Particularly about joint actions and contacts at the level of the entire European Union.
Also, our team has already begun working on what our partners promised yesterday in Kyiv, at the Summit in Support of Ukraine. More than 40 Summit participants online and in person: leaders, other state representatives, international organizations. A separate meeting was held in a format with the Baltic and Nordic states, as well as a meeting of G7 leaders. I thank everyone who was truly principled on such a day – the day of the third anniversary of the beginning of the full-scale invasion. And we in Ukraine appreciate that our partners are ready not only to continue support for our state, our people, but also to increase it, so that we can swiftly achieve peace – an honest peace, one that guarantees that aggression will not be repeated. This year, Britain will provide military assistance of more than 5.5 billion dollars. Norway confirms assistance at the level of 3.5 billion dollars, and we also have support in the areas of energy security and humanitarian aid. Spain – 1 billion euros this year, we highly appreciate such a focus on support. Sweden is preparing to transfer air defense systems – thank you. Denmark will provide an additional 285 million dollars for weapons and ammunition for our warriors. We are also working to expand our F-16 fleet – this year, we must reach all planned targets. The Baltic states, together with the Nordics, will ensure the equipment and training of units equivalent to a brigade. And such measures are crucial for conducting rotations in our army – well-equipped and trained units are needed to support the guys on the front line. Estonia has prepared a support package. Agreements have been reached with Lithuania on further joint defense steps, including the defense of the skies. Also, ahead of February 24, new sanctions decisions have been made against Russia for the war: the European Union has approved a new package, and there are also sanctions decisions from Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. I thank you all for your support! And more decisions will follow. We are actively preparing them now – meetings, agreements, negotiations. Ukraine must be strong so that diplomacy can work successfully through that strength. A great deal of diplomacy is already in motion, and developments will only speed up. We are preparing certain formats with our partners.
And one more thing. Today, I met with parliamentarians from the global parliamentary network of support for Ukraine, and this is important. We have built diplomatic contacts at all levels – from leaders and parliaments to the media and many public organizations. All of this is to withstand this war and to end it with dignity – precisely as our people, the Ukrainian nation, deserve. A nation that fights so bravely earns respect. And that respect translates into concrete steps of support from partners. I am proud of all our people. And every country that is helping us in Ukraine now is, in fact, helping itself – to preserve a global order in which human life matters.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
⭕ On February 25, 104 years after the Soviet occupation of #Georgia, the Maro Makashvili March recreated the May 26, 1919, march of the Shevardeni Sports Society, moving from Vake Park to Heroes’ Square.
❌ Soviet authorities banned Shevardeni as anti-state.
Day 90 of #GeorgiaProtests – #Tbilisi
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) February 25, 2025 at 12:09 PM
⭕️ On February 25, marking 104 years since the Soviet occupation of #Georgia, various marches converged at Heroes’ Square in Tbilisi and marched to Rustaveli Avenue, where #GeorgiaProtests have continued for 90 days, demanding new elections and the release of political prisoners.
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) February 25, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Day 90. Soviet Russian occupation of Georgia day. Five marches unite at the Heroes Square and then at Rustaveli. The First Republic flags are here. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 9:38 AM
On February 25, 1921, Soviet Russia occupied Tbilisi and the entire Georgia soon after.
Currently, Georgia is taken over by Russia not just with the 20% of outright occupied territories, but fully, through their puppet occupation regime in Tbilisi. 1/3
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 7:37 AM
The Trojan horse special electoral operation of “denazification and demilitarization” of Georgia was successful in 2012.
By “denazification” we mean prosecuting, eliminating, shaming and showcasing patriotism as something dangerous. 2/3
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 7:37 AM
There are supposed to be various protest marches this evening, 90th day of continuous protests, against the backdrop of people dying in snowfall in Guria due to regime negligence and callousness. 3/3.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 7:37 AM
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 90— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
A protest march is heading toward Rustaveli Avenue, which has already been blocked by other demonstrators.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 90— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 12:17 PM
The 5th President of Georgia, @Zourabichvili_S , has also joined the protest on Rustaveli avenue.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 90— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Back to Ukraine.
SCOOP: Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment. Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign. www.ft.com/content/1890…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 25, 2025 at 1:41 PM
From The Financial Times:
Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment.
Ukrainian officials said Kyiv was ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from the deal.
Although the text lacks explicit security guarantees, the officials argued they had negotiated far more favourable terms and depicted the deal as a way of broadening the relationship with the US to shore up Ukraine’s prospects after three years of war.
“The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the Financial Times on Tuesday.
A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was planning to travel to Washington on Friday to see Donald Trump and formalise the deal.
On Tuesday the US president appeared to confirm his Ukrainian counterpart’s visit, saying: “I hear that [Zelenskyy is] coming on Friday. Certainly it’s OK with me if he’d like to.”
The original draft agreement’s highly onerous terms — which Trump presented as a means of Ukraine repaying the US for military and financial aid since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion — provoked outrage in Kyiv and other European capitals.
After Zelenskyy rejected that initial text last week, Trump called him a “dictator” and appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war.
The final version of the agreement, dated February 24 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would invest in projects in Ukraine.
It excludes mineral resources that already contribute to Ukrainian government coffers, meaning it would not cover the existing activities of Naftogaz or Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest gas and oil producers.
However, the agreement omits any reference to US security guarantees which Kyiv had originally insisted on in return for agreeing to the deal.
It also leaves crucial questions such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the terms of “joint ownership” deals to be thrashed out in follow-up agreements.
After three years in which the US was Kyiv’s primary military aid donor, Trump has overturned Washington’s policy by opening bilateral talks with Russia, without any European allies or Ukraine at the table.
Ukrainian officials said the deal had been approved by the justice, economy and foreign ministers.
The mandate for the fund to invest in Ukraine is a further change Kyiv had sought. The document states the US will back Ukraine’s economic development into the future.
Ukrainian officials added the deal was just a “framework agreement” and that no revenue would change hands until the fund was in place, allowing them time to iron out any potential disagreements. Among the outstanding issues is to agree the jurisdiction of the agreement.
Zelenskyy’s government will also have to seek approval from Ukraine’s parliament, where opposition MPs have signalled they will at the very least have a heated debate before ratifying such a deal.
More at the link.
So essentially America will run a Ukrainian sovereign wealth fund? Sounds pretty weird.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 3:34 PM
At this point I have no idea what Trump and his natsec team are doing, because, as Shashank Joshi skeeted, it’s pretty clear they just negotiated the creation of a Ukrainian sovereign wealth or investment fund. But this seems to be warp and weft of their not understanding how anything works.
Especially as Russia is signaling loudly that they’re not stopping, no matter what Trump and his team negotiate.
⚡️Russia’s war objectives ‘not yet achieved,’ Kremlin’s ambassador says.
“The constitutional territories of Russia have not been liberated,” Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said on Feb. 25.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) February 25, 2025 at 2:54 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russia’s stated goals in its war against Ukraine remain unachieved despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to start peace negotiations, Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said on Feb. 25, according to the Russian state-owned news agency TASS.
“The objectives of the Special Military Operation have not yet been achieved,” Miroshnik said, using the Kremlin’s term for its war against Ukraine.
The objectives include Russia’s failure to fully occupy Ukraine’s four regions it has illegally annexed and the need to ensure Kyiv no longer “poses a threat” to Moscow.
“The constitutional territories of Russia have not been liberated,” he said.
Russia illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, followed by Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts in 2022.
Moscow does not control all of these territories, including the regional capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded Ukraine withdraw from all four oblasts as a condition for negotiations.
Miroshnik said that while military objectives remain unachieved, Russia may attempt to achieve them through future negotiations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Feb. 24 that Moscow would agree to a ceasefire only if negotiations yield a “sustainable result” that “suits” Russia.
The U.S. held direct talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18, excluding Ukraine from the meeting. The decision sparked criticism in Kyiv and Europe, with leaders concerned about being sidelined in negotiations.
Preparations are underway for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying it could happen by the end of February.
Trump said on Feb. 24 that Russia’s war against Ukraine could end “within weeks” and claimed Putin would accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of a potential deal.
The U.K. is reportedly preparing a plan to deploy 30,000 European troops as a post-ceasefire security guarantee.
Western intelligence officials have expressed skepticism about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate in good faith. NBC News reported on Feb. 18 that Putin is not serious about a peace deal and is instead using talks to consolidate Russian territorial gains.
Remember, Putin thinks he’s on a mission from god:
Putin believes that Russia attacked Ukraine because it was destiny and the will of God.
Indeed.— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Major General Budanov has a far more clear eyed assessment of the situation:
“If Russia captures Ukraine, its next target will be Poland.” – says head of HUR Kyrylo Budanov.
According to the chief intelligence officer, Russia aims to restore an empire similar to the Soviet Union, but with Warsaw Pact countries included.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Here’s the full video:
Ukrainian parliament reaffirms legitimacy of Ukrainian president. Those claiming Zelensky is a dictator and illegitimate are basically spreading Kremlin propaganda.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 9:24 AM
🇺🇦 During WW2, four brothers from a Jewish family signed up to fight against the Nazis. Only one of the four brothers survived.
His grandson is the current President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 6:53 PM
NEMESIS unit continues to deplete Russian frontline air defence capabilities. This time Strela-10 was destroyed.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Sumy Oblast:
russia struck Sumy last night, injuring at least two people.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 6:26 AM
Kharkiv:
The Kharkiv region now proudly displays the new flags of the brigades that defend us at its entrances.
I think it’s beautiful. Our defenders are our pride, joy, and hope!— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Kherson:
🇺🇦Kherson: Casualties of Russian MLRS strikes yesterday, as UN signed “resolutions”
💔4 women, 31, 43, 71, 48
💔1 man, 54
💔1 girl, 15Videos by my friends, same time, taken in two residential districts far from the river. No military objects.
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 4:50 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Russian forces have ramped up attacks on Ukraine’s logistic networks in Kursk Oblast, further hampering the Ukrainian effort to hold on to the Russian territory it controls ahead of potential peace talks, analysts and soldiers on the ground told the Kyiv Independent.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) February 25, 2025 at 3:28 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian forces have ramped up attacks on Ukraine’s logistic networks in Kursk Oblast, further hampering the Ukrainian effort to hold on to the Russian territory it controls ahead of potential peace talks, analysts and soldiers on the ground told the Kyiv Independent.
“The Russians have been on the offensive in Kursk for several months,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a Finnish military analyst from the Black Bird Group open-source intelligence collective.
“They have made only slow progress in the winter of 2024-25, but they seem to be determined,” he added.
While Russia has already rejected the possibility of trading its territory for occupied Ukrainian land, pledging to take the land back by military force, Ukraine continues to see its gains in Kursk Oblast as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.
Since launching an incursion into the Russian region in early August, Ukraine has lost around two-thirds of the territory it initially captured but continues to control the remainder.
Russia’s six-month campaign to push Ukrainian soldiers out of Kursk Oblast, involving around 12,000 North Korean soldiers alongside Russian troops, has proved costly for Moscow.
But with hampered logistics and in light of Washington’s startling alignment with Russia ahead of talks, Ukraine may soon face difficult strategic decisions in the area.
Russia’s recent attacks in Kursk Oblast are focused on cutting off the only route Ukrainians use for resupply from the adjacent Sumy Oblast in northeastern Ukraine.
On the left flank of the Ukraine-controlled salient in Kursk Oblast, Russia launches frequent mechanized assaults that are even more intense than Russian attacks in Pokrovsk, one of the hottest ongoing fights in Ukraine’s east, Ruslan Mykula, a military analyst and co-founder of the DeepState OSINT project, said.
Mechanized attacks — where armored vehicles are used to quickly break through defenses, clearing the way for infantry groups to storm trenches — helped Russia capture the village of Sverdlikovo northwest of Ukrainian-controlled Sudzha last week, Mykula told the Kyiv Independent.
It brought the Russians “uncomfortably close” to key Ukrainian logistical routes, Kastehelmi said.
“There are now less than eight kilometers to the main supply road to Sudzha, which is already in range of Russian drones,” he said, adding the complete cut-off of the route is “unlikely to happen very quickly.”
A Ukrainian artilleryman who has been fighting near Sudzha since August told the Kyiv Independent that the supply situation had deteriorated during the last two weeks.
“(Logistics) are non-existent,” said the soldier going by the callsign “Spys.” The Kyiv Independent doesn’t use his first and last name for security reasons.
“The biggest losses of equipment are on the road (between Sumy Oblast and Ukraine’s positions in Kursk Oblast),” he added. “We started rationing (our supplies).”
Russian forces deployed an elite drone unit that “controls the road 24/7 and flies deep into the rear of Ukrainian territory,” according to “Spys.” To be able to use this road, Ukrainian forces have to wait for weather conditions that are unsuitable for drone missions, such as heavy fog or snow.
Ukraine has launched several offensive operations in Kursk Oblast after the initial push in August but has only made limited gains.
“(Russian troops) have a huge advantage in manpower and don’t have such problems with logistics, so Ukrainian offensives usually don’t end well,” Mykula said.
However, before Russia captured Sverdlikovo which allowed the ramping up of attacks on Ukraine’s logistics, Ukrainian forces managed to fend off Russian attacks on the right flank of the salient and retake their positions after an assault made by North Korean infantry last month, “Spys” said.
“(North Koreans were) gaining ground due to the fact that there were so many of them that they simply couldn’t (all) be physically killed,” Mykula said.
Much more at the link.
Kupiansk:
Russian column of 5 AFVs destroyed on the Kypiansk front. 1 tank; 1 BMP; 3 BTR. t.me/fedorenkoys/…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
🔥/1. Russian 9A83 S-300V destroyed on the Zaporizhzhia front by a heavy night bomber drone:
“Just now, on the Zaporizhzhia front, in the rear of the Russians, our guys destroyed a fat target – a rather rare launcher 9A83 S-300 V air defense missile system…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 12:49 AM
/2. After the defeat, the drone was landed in order to observe “how it burns”, two Russians from the crew of the system became very interested in what flew to them, they came to look and as a bonus 2 died!”https://t.me/Zigun_Mangusta/19105
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Kyiv:
Fighters from the 210th Separate Air Defense Battalion, while defending Kyiv’s sky, shot down two “Shaheds”. However, one of them exploded nearby, damaging their combat vehicle.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 8:30 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
– The difference between the Mavic (drone) and the Varey 🦅
– With Varey, when it’s cold, you can warm your hands and nose 🫂💙💛— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) February 22, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Open thread!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re also welcome.
And now I can go get cleaned up and rack out with a clear conscience!
Adam L Silverman
Apparently Israel is attacking southern Syria.
Steve Crickmore
Thanks as always, for your dedicated work, Adam. It will be interesting to see what the ‘rare minerals’ deal expected to be signed shortly by the US and Ukraine is? So far, it looks like a ‘protection racket’ scheme without much protection.
Prairielogic
Thank you, Adam, for putting together this ongoing list of daily atrocities being committed by Putin/Russia….
J. Arthur Crank
I’m getting whiplash reading about the ever-changing “negotiations” regarding Ukraine’s mineral resources. All that is missing at this point is a giant glowing orb.
Mea
day after day after day – I and all the other lurkers who rarely or never comment am better informed thanks to you. Sometimes it is too hard to read which makes it double important that you collect it all in one place so even if we dont have the heart for a deep dive we get the update. Maybe it says more about me than about the news but this is the only place that informs me about the Georgia protests. I rarely comment but when there is silence I hope you hear a lot of voices whispering or shouting “Thank you”.
Adam L Silverman
@Mea: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Steve Crickmore: You are quite welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Prairielogic: You are also welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@J. Arthur Crank:
I’ve got a story to tell you…
But another time.
J. Arthur Crank
@Adam L Silverman:
That can’t be good, but given all that is happening elsewhere, I can’t gauge how bad this development is. So, how bad is it?
Adam L Silverman
@J. Arthur Crank: Yesterday Bibi demanded that the new/interim Syrian government create a demilitarized zone in southern Syria. Apparently he decided that 36 hours was more than enough time for the Syrians to acquiesce to his demands.
J. Arthur Crank
@Adam L Silverman: I saw somewhere* that MicroRubio will be signing the deal, so perhaps that event only merits a small glowing orb, maybe one powered by some extra radium they have lying around.
*my reading comprehension is shot to hell, as well as my memory, so don’t built a bridge using this information.
J. Arthur Crank
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the response. I don’t see how this contributes to Israel’s long term security, but I wasn’t consulted prior to these events.
dr. luba
@Adam L Silverman: So why do you think Israel opposed the Ukrainian resolution at the UN yesterday? It was the only western democracy, besides the USA, to do so.
Sucking up to Trump? Putin?
Jay
@dr. luba</
Adam L Silverman
@dr. luba: A reporter at Maariv reported that it is because Trump leaned on Bibi by threatening to stop providing military sales/military aid.
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
… oooooooooof course they fucking are.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I am reading that Bibi wants to indefinitely occupy a “buffer zone” including Mount Hermon & won’t allow Syrian forces south of Damascus. He is setting up local Druze authorities, to which Israel will purportedly provide protection for, to justify the occupation of sovereign Syrian territory.
Reminiscent of Russian actions in Donbas in 2014. One can also draw parallel to the Rwandan invasion of eastern DRC (via its M23 proxy). Rwanda has tried to gain legitimacy for its M23 proxy by providing “good governance” (or even just basic governance) to the populations of the occupied provinces, which the government in Kinshasa has singularly failed to do for decades.
Welcome to the new world order of ethno-nationalist multipolarity, of competing regional hegemonies & spheres of influence.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: You called it, Trump will try to end the “5 Eyes” arrangement, & probably all of the other “xx-Eyes”. Well, allied intelligence agencies have been collecting on Trump & his associates, & sharing w/ the US intelligence community, so perhaps no surprise that Trump & crew want to tear down this part of the “deep state”.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: He won’t protect Israeli Druze, but now he’s the protector of Syria’s Druze. He’s a schmuck.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s convicted felon Peter Navarro calling for that. We’ll have to wait and see if Trump, Waltz, Gabbard, what his name at CIA, or Hegseth get on board.
J. Arthur Crank
@YY_Sima Qian:
I do feel sorry for the spies that draw the short straw and are assigned to surveil Trump, given that he is a disgusting pig of a man. I suppose they pay is good, and the health insurance, retirement plan, etc. are all solid.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
As happy as I was for the Syrians that Assad was gone, one of my takeaways from his fall and the complete collapse of the so-called Shi’a Crescent’s power at the beginning of this year was “I’m sorry, but I don’t see how a Middle East dominated by Israel and Saudi Arabia to the extent that it will be now can possibly be anything but very bad news.”
As if on cue, here comes Bibi to live up to my expectations.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t see why Trump wouldn’t get on board. Gabbard’s Russian & Indian puppetmasters definitely want to see 5-Eyes ended. This is over Hegseth’s head (though folks under him probably support the 5-Eyes). But I guess Waltz & Rubio will fight against ending 5-Eyes. The PRC can try to apply pull strings through Musk, too. Surely Musk has been focus target for 5-Eyes & other allied intelligence collection.
J. Arthur Crank
@Adam L Silverman:
It occurred to me that this like academia, except in instead of “assistant professor”, “associate professor”, and “professor” you have “alleged felon”, “convicted felon”, and “felon”. Maybe they also have steps within a rank (as they do for generals) where the number of convictions comes into play.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Yep, the new ME is shaping up to be a free for all between Türkiye, KSA/UAE, Israel, & Iran remains influential (if only through the Shia militias in Iraq & the Houthis threatening Red Sea traffic any time they want), + Qatar playing spoiler. Among these regional powers Türkiye & KSA might actually have the strongest preference for some kind of order.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
KSA can’t stop itself from flying close to the jihadist flame, though. IIRC, Turkey’s also not a stranger to these associations. Which isn’t great for regional stability of any kind.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: There is the militantly political Islam, & then there is the nihilist political Islam. I don’t think the powers than be in either KSA or Türkiye are associated w/ the latter, at least not any more.
MBS is a cynical, illiberal & brutal (to his critics) ruler, his concern for the welfare of Palestinians strictly limited, he oversees a KSA political-economy that ruthlessly exploit foreign guest workers, but he is also trying to modernize the KSA economy beyond pure resource extraction & has worked to maintain the rapprochement w/ Iran. Likewise w/ MBZ in the UAE. As the disastrous intervention int Yemen has wound down, my impression is that MBS has been less reckless in foreign adventures than MBZ.
Perhaps Geminid can shine more light.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
I think KSA wants there to be a clear wall between militant political Islam and nihilist political Islam, but in reality the former keeps slipping into the latter.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I probably can shed any more light on this. I will say I think you right about Saudi Arabia and Turkey valuing stability.
But I think this region is far better without Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” They kept a region of 300 million people in conflict and instability for decades in order to expel 7 million of them, and they said they were willing to keep it up for as long as it took.
The irony is that part of the rationale behind the Axis was to reinforce religious feelings among Iran’s populace. It has; interest in Zoroastrianism has surged in recent years.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Rubio has less power on Trump’s natsec team than Lavrov has on Putin’s. He’ll do whatever the zampolit assigned to mind him tells him to do. Waltz appears to have decided that whatever actually convictions he has, they were all easily jettisoned in order to have the access and placement he currently does.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: One again, the Middle East will prevent a presidential administration, as well as the DC blob, from actually pivoting to the Asia-Pacific.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, charlatans, every last one of them.
John S.
@YY_Sima Qian:
This is by far the strangest Earth in the multiverse.
Great discussion between you @Chris et al.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: In Seoul:
Reminiscent of the US reactionaries. I fear that, if the SK Left Wing wins the next election, as widely expected, there will be political violence from the far right.
YY_Sima Qian
@John S.: Nah, we’ve seen this before, from the 2nd half of the 19th Century through the Inter-War decades.
John S.
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, but you’re still talking about our crazy timeline. Even if quantum physics is bunk, I have to believe there are other variants of Earth that suck a lot less than ours. Though to be fair, that probably also means there are those which are far worse. I dare not be that creative.
YY_Sima Qian
@John S.: Could always be worse, the world could still be a radioactive wasteland right now because Kennedy & Khrushchev mis-managed the Cuban Missile Crisis, & Brazil, India & South Africa fighting WW IV over the scraps.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Perhaps just as well. Not likely this or any other administration would do better in the Asia Pacific than they have done in the ME.
The strategic culture is rotten to the core, too enamored w/ primacy to consider just backstopping a hedging/balancing coalition of regional powers to check the PRC’s ambitions.
glc
@YY_Sima Qian: In this context it seems worth while to give some credit to flotilla commander Arkhipov, who refused to approve the commander’s order to launch a nuclear torpedo. A tough spot to be in. It seems like that would have ended badly.
YY_Sima Qian
@glc: Yes, absolutely.
Gloria DryGarden
@glc: you took my breath away with that one
Geminid
@Geminid: That should have read, “probably can’t shed light on this.” I fell asleep at the editing wheel.