Update at 5:30 pm: We have a new Balloon Juice Angel! redshift will match up to $25 per person – to either FL thermometer – up to a total of $500. He sold some Tesla stock h’d almost forgotten about a couple of weeks ago, and it seems like poetic justice to use some of the proceeds here! Thank you, redshift! ANGEL MATCH STILL AVAILABLE
Update at 2 pm: We have a Balloon Juice Angel! frosty will match up to $25 per person – to either FL thermometer – up to a total of $500. Thank you, frosty! COMPLETE
Boots On the Ground in Florida!
Florida special elections for the US House – is this a long shot or a potentially history making opportunity?
I would argue that it’s both.
April 1st is special election day in Florida to fill the empty seats of two grifters Trump pulled out of Congress to staff his regime. These are safe Republican districts in ordinary times, and we would probably take a pass. But these are not ordinary times.
Let’s talk about the two open seats and the candidates who are running to fill them.
– FL District 1 is open because Matt Gaetz (R-Pedophile) was tapped to be Attorney General – a thought so horrific that even Congressional Republicans couldn’t stomach it.
– FL District 6 was held by Michael Waltz, who will now help undermine our safety as Trump’s National Security Advisor.
To be clear, these are deep red districts.
Florida District 1 (FL-01)
District 1 (Pensacola and the western Panhandle) is the most Republican District in the state (Cook Partisan District Index R +19). Gaetz retained his seat 66-34 over Democratic challenger Gay Valimont. Valimont (D) is running again as the Democrat in the special election against Florida’s CFO, Jimmy Patronis.
It’s unfathomable that the loathsome Gaetz got those numbers, but he’s from a prominent Florida political family. Patronis is not.
Arguably Gay Valimont has a better chance against a lesser-known and non-incumbent candidate.
FL-01 Gay Valimont: (BlueSky)
FL District 6 (FL-06)
District 6 (Daytona Beach) is a little less grim. Cook has it at R+14. However Waltz had a margin of victory similar to Gaetz in 2024: 66-33.
This time, a charismatic Democrat named Josh Weil emerged from the January 28, 2025 primary.
His opponent, Randy Fine, was recruited by Trump to run for the seat, even though he lived outside the district. Carpetbagger much?
FL-06 Josh Weil: (BlueSky)
National Ground Game
Many of you have asked in the comments if we would do any fundraising or take other action to help win these Florida seats. (Special thanks for this to rikyrah for the reminders.) So here’s your opportunity to donate or volunteer for these races, if you are so inclined.
Consistent with our “boots on the ground” preference, we identified and made contact with an organization that went all out registering voters in Florida 1st and 6th, and is now pounding the pavement to turn out voters.
Meet the National Ground Game. The Ground Game dispatches organizers and canvassers in all 50 states. We’ve made contact with Board Member Zoe Cohen-Sanchez, who is featured in the video below describing the organization’s efforts in FL-01 and FL-06.
Short inspirational video below. ⬇️
There is not enough time to go through our typical process of meeting with folks from an organization, seeing if there is a good fit, trying to figure out if there is a way that we can help them do something beyond what they are normally able to do, and meeting with them again to work out details. But we can put up thermometers to support their work.
This group will also be organizing for the open House seat in New York, and we hope to meet and talk with them as they begin to focus in New York. But right now, the last thing we want to do is slow anything down, so we’re putting up the thermometer and they happily agreed to use whatever funds we might raise for the individual races.
Two Separate Thermometers & Volunteer Opportunities
We have two separate thermometers – that means that you guys can direct donations to either or both of the candidates. You want to donate to the one where winning seems the most likely? Donate through the FL-06 thermometer. Want to donate to the longer shot, donate through the FL-01 thermometer. Want to donate to both districts? You’ll donate once through FL-01 and again through FL-06.
In addition, there are post-carding and canvassing opportunities (if you’re already in Florida), that you can access through their website: www.nationalgroundgame.com
Is this a long shot? What does victory look like?
Is this a long shot? I would argue that is a long shot and a potentially history making opportunity. Certainly FL-01 is a super long shot, but in this year, I think anything can happen. Extremely low probability of an outright win in FL-01, but we’ll likely never see another moment where betting on long shot like this, and winning, could literally change the course of history.
What does “victory” look like in the special elections? If we win even one of them, that puts us one family emergency or bad case of the flu away from close Republican votes failing.
If we can’t flip either seat, is there victory to be found in substantially narrower margins? What does that mean for the New York special election?
No one knows. Uncharted territory. There be dragons.
But if you want to do something, here’s your opportunity.
Baud
Whatever the outcome, red state/district candidates are heroes.
Percysowner
Threw in $25 for each one. A real long shot, but with Trump threatening Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid we might sneak through. Anyway, you can’t win if you don’t go.
Dougboy
@Percysowner: Same for me on both races and many thanks to the brave and tireless people who are on the ground trying to make this happen.
Thanks to the BJ squad for continuing this type of intelligent, targeted support!
Hamlet of Melnibone
Threw in $50 to each. Even if they don’t win this time, it’s worth spending some money to have people making our case in these red districts.
H.E.Wolf
PostcardsToVoters.org is currently writing GOTV postcards for Josh Weil in FL-06.
To sign up: [email protected].
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Thanks WG.
And what Baud said and Hamlet said. I know one of the (D) people running in the primary last year against MTG. He didn’t get out of the primary but all 4 of those people were downright eager to run despite the odds.
I don’t understand it, but then I don’t need to. It’s heartening to see it happening, particularly in states like FL with, and I’m sure BCrack will correct me on this if I’m wrong, have a state Dem party that really is in disarray.
Betty Cracker
Randy Fine (GOP candidate for the 6th) is truly a horrible person — a corrupt, whiny, sexist pig. He and DeSantis used to be allies but had a falling out, so I’m hoping maybe divisions within the party come into play. That’s how the last Dem elected statewide (Fried) snagged her seat.
I hold out less hope for the 1st. AFAIK, Patronis remains fully plugged into the FL GOP grift machine. If either seat flips, look out for the wave!
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Yeah, that would be seismic. Fingers crossed for that unlikely result.
Ocotillo
Sylvester Turner (D -Houston) passed away so Team Blue is down 1 today.
Princess
Regardless of the outcome of these two races, Dems cannot afford to give up on Florida. If we ever want to win state-wide there again, we need to maximize our votes in districts like these. So I think these races are worth a little attention.
JaySinWA
I believe you are tautologically correct. I dumped in $25 each. Victory or folly? Why not both?
WaterGirl
Did anyone watch the video? It’s really great.
Doc Sardonic
I live in Fl 6, Trump got around 64%, that being said there is an opportunity, a long shot but an opportunity. Josh Weil has been running a quiet campaign a few mailers, lots of text messages. Randy Fine however has been, as far as I have seen silent, I think he is assuming since he won the Repub primary he has it in the bag, and he might, there is a whole bunch of rural, rednecky, MAGA territory here. I’d venture to guess this will hinge on which way the wind blows and how pissed off that chunk of The Villages in the district is with Musk and Trump, also Trump ain’t on the ballot so turnout will be the question as usual.
Marmot
In for $25 each!
dc
I donated $20 to each. It’s a long shot, but we can’t give up.
Professor Bigfoot
Dammit, you Jackals, out here giving me hope. <wink emoji>
Kicking in another 25 for each, ‘cause what the hell, maybe the horse will learn to sing!
PS— is anyone else reading or have read William Gibson’s “The Peripheral?” Anyone who has, can you see us careening towards “the jackpot?” We already have our Russian klepts, after all…
JiveTurkin
I threw in a few bucks for District 6 a few days ago because I know someone who knows someone there. And Fines is demented. I won’t contribute to District 1, they would elect a Republican if he/she stood up in full Nazi regalia and saluted to Hitler.
JaySinWA
@WaterGirl:
I just watched the video. They say voter registration ended March 1, I don’t see any indication of how well they did in getting new registrations.
divF
I contributed $100 each.
I’ve never played the lottery, so I can use that accumulated cash to make long-shot (but still much better odds) political contributions. As Commander Cody put it, “Life ain’t nothing but a poker game. No two hands quite the same. But I never saw a winner that didn’t bet. “
gvg
Don’t get too caught up in calling someone a carpet bagger in Florida. As a native I can tell you most people moved from somewhere else and it’s been that way for generations so it just doesn’t play the same as in some states. On the other hand if the actual rules say you have to live within the district, you better do so, it just won’t matter if you moved the week before the rules say you have to have. At least, if you don’t lie about it.
Also Desantis has removed democrats in small school boards and other petty positions who weren’t in compliance, so the precise rules do matter. They aren’t enforced equally either.
It’s just voters themselves are also likely to be new to districts. That has been an issue in getting school bonds passed.
stinger
Chipped in to both. Hope springs eternal! And it was a good video. Thanks, WaterGirl!
WaterGirl
@JiveTurkin: That’s exactly why we made two separate thermometers – everyone will have their own thoughts on what’s best.
WaterGirl
@JaySinWA:
I can always ask.
JoeyJoeJoe
fL-1 has been super republican for decades. In 1972, Richard Nixon got 84% of the vote there. It historically elected conservative democrats; Joe Scarborough of all people was the one to flip it to republicans, in 1994.
FL-6 has been more open to Democrats in recent decades. I think that Obama won the district as it was drawn in 2008, and he may have won it in 2012. Volusia County and Flagler County have moved strongly right recently, but the 6th is almost certainly a more likely pickup than the 1st. Many of the 1st district voters are old time southern conservatives who are unwinnable in any situation
BlueGuitarist
Some additional factors might help us in FL-06!
On the ballot in FL-06 in addition to Democrat Josh Weil and R Randy Fine:
a libertarian,
anti-abortion extremist Randall Terry, and
another Republican running as an independent.
The latter 3 could draw quite a few votes away from the Republican from folks who will never vote for a Democrat, thereby bringing the contest closer for Weil.
Some things that could cost Fine votes, in addition to being a carpetbagger:
He’s a multimillionaire ($28 M self-reported net worth; Casinos) with Harvard BA, MBA.
In the FL Senate he has sponsored bills to ban flying flags expressing views he doesn’t like in public buildings and to lower the FL age to purchase weapons to 18.
So too rich to care about trying to lower grocery prices or deal with the Florida home insurance crisis.
There are a couple of Blue areas in the district.
Folks in Daytona Beach, the most famous spring break destination, might be less enthusiastic than an outsider like Fine about making it easier for drunk kids to bring guns to their parties, contests, and arguments.
The few other blue areas in the district besides Daytona Beach where Weil needs to really boost turnout are small cities: DeLand and Palatka. Hope Weil hires local folks to GOTV.
on bluesky
FL-06 Josh Weil: joshweil.bsky.social
FL-01 Gay Valimont: Gayforcongress.bsky.social
Hope it isn’t obnoxious to reiterate these previously posted comments, seem more relevant here.
There are some upcoming special elections further down-ballot special I’ve posted about previously:
Iowa House District 100 March 11, D: Nannette Griffin
Pennsylvania State Senate 36 March 25 D: James Malone
There’s also a special PA state house special March 25, District 35. D district
eastern Allegheny County: McKeesport, Duquesne, Homestead. Dem: Dan Goughnour
BlueGuitarist
@gvg:
interesting.
Does Fine being from Melbourne Beach signify snob in a way that might be worse for him than being a carpetbagger and multimillionaire?
Josie
I put in $25 each.
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist: You’re all good. That information does belong here!
SuzieC
$50 for each race. I just received my retroactive SS lump sum payment following the repeal of WEP and I can’t think of a better way to spend some of it.
pacem appellant
I was going to skip donating to these races. I think it’s money wasted. But I’m so despondent right now that even a glimmer hope is enough. $25 for each. JFC. Rah, rah, team.
WaterGirl
@SuzieC: Big congratulations for that!
Barbara
I gave $25 to FL-01 and $50 to FL-06.
WaterGirl
Effective right now:
We have a Balloon Juice Angel! frosty will match up to $25 per person – to either FL thermometer – up to a total of $500.
As always, if you want to be matched, tell us about your donation in the comments or by email.
Thank you, frosty!
BenInNM
Put in $10 for each
Shalimar
FYI, Patronis is also a carpetbagger. He is from one of the most prominent Panama City families and has ties to that area going back 100 years. He has never as far as I know lived anywhere in District 1.
WaterGirl
@BenInNM: We have our first donation for the match!
stinger
@BlueGuitarist:
Thanks for the reminder. I’ve chipped in for Griffin.
lowtechcyclist
Linky, please? I’m seeing R+14 at both Wikipedia and Cook’s website.
Avalie
Adding $25 to each thermometer!
The Return of Mo Salad
A Ulysses to each thermometer.
Wolvesvalley
I am riled enough by last night that I have just put in $100 for each one. Maybe a long shot, but it relieves my feelings a little bit.
Karen H
I put in $25 for each
SiubhanDuinne
Just sent $25.00 to each campaign. Thanks, as ever, for organising this, WG, and many thanks to frosty for putting up the match.
Glidwrith
I’m in for $50 each
Redshift
$50 for each. Special elections are a roll of the dice in normal times, who knows what could happen now?
Redshift
One thing to keep in mind is that special elections are always really low turnout, so even more than regular elections, it’s all about identifying your people and getting them out to vote. Meaning that even if there are a lot of unwinnable voters there, we don’t need them to flip, we just need them to be unhappy or pissed off enough not to vote.
I’m not saying it’s likely, just that our chances are a lot better than any other time.
WaterGirl
@lowtechcyclist: I started putting this together awhile ago, so I can’t say exactly where I saw it. I updated it just now, thanks for the info.
buggrit
$25 each, just because.
WaterGirl
@Redshift: That’s how I feel! Especially this time, exactly for the reason you mentioned.
Not everyone understood what they would be getting with Trump. (As impossible as that seems to us, you can bet neither of my sisters thought Trump would cut social security.)
StringOnAStick
In for $25 for FL-06
WaterGirl
Big thanks to everyone who donated while I was out!
Thanks, frosty!
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@BlueGuitarist:
Randall Fucking Terry. If ever grievous harm should randomly afflict somebody, it’s that bastard.
But hey, if we win there and the margin is exactly the number of people who voted for him, great. Probably the only decent thing he could accomplish while living.
RaflW
Just donated $25 each to the two thermometers, and also matched that with $25 to each candidate directly (via an email from the Josh Weil campaign – I thought it was great that he’s raising for Gail too).
I have mostly shut the tap since Nov 5, other than Run for Something and Fair Fight – and of course Susan Crawford in WI and a couple very local school board races. But I think it’s time to start at least funding a fight here and there.
WaterGirl
@RaflW:
That is great!
P.S. Your donation is the first one of the new angel match announced in the comment just below this one.
WaterGirl
We met frosty’s Angel match, big thank you to frosty!
We have a new Balloon Juice Angel!
Redshift will match up to $25 per person up to a total of $500.
The best part is that he sold some Tesla stock he’d almost forgotten about a couple of weeks ago, and it seemed like poetic justice to him to use some of the proceeds here! I agree. :-)
Thank you, redshift!
dnfree
I donated $50 to each thermometer.
Ann Marie
I donated $25 to each thermometer.
Another Scott
+$25+ each to both.
Thanks redshift and everyone!
Forward!!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Temp Decloaked Lurker
$25 for each race.
WaterGirl
@dnfree: @Ann Marie: @Another Scott: @Temp Decloaked Lurker:
Just caught your 4 donations now, and that completes the Angel match from Redshift.
WaterGirl
5:55 pm on Thursday: I am no longer checking this thread for donations; please see the most current donation thread if you’d like to donate!