Trump cut off US intelligence assistance to Ukraine earlier today. This included for HIMARS and GMLRS targeting.
⚡️Update: US halts intelligence sharing with Ukraine, CIA director confirms.
The U.S. has halted intelligence sharing with Kyiv, threatening Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets amid the full-scale war, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed to Fox Business on March 5.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 5, 2025 at 10:20 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
The U.S. has halted intelligence sharing with Kyiv, threatening Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets amid the full-scale war, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed to Fox Business on March 5.
“Trump had a real question about whether President (Volodymyr) Zelensky was committed to the peace process, and he said let’s pause,” Ratcliffe said.
The Financial Times earlier reported on March 5, citing undisclosed sources, that the U.S. had halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
The move follows Washington’s decision to freeze all military aid supplies to Ukraine following a public spat between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The decision was likely intended to put pressure on Zelensky in peace talks.
Zelensky later issued a statement on March 4 in which he called the Oval Office clash “regrettable” and affirmed commitment to work toward peace under Trump’s leadership.
The U.S. president praised Zelensky’s statement in his address to Congress but made no direct comment on releasing military aid.
“I think on the military front and the intelligence front, the pause that allowed that to happen, I think will go away,” Ratcliffe added.
There had been conflicting claims as to whether the aid freeze also concerned intelligence sharing, a crucial capability that allows Ukraine to strike Russian targets and track military movement.
Citing an undisclosed Ukrainian official, Bloomberg originally disputed the Financial Times’ article, claiming that intelligence sharing is ongoing. The British tabloid Daily Mail previously reported that the U.S. banned the U.K. from sharing Washington-obtained intelligence with Kyiv.
Two officials told the FT that while Washington blocked allies from sharing U.S. intelligence with Ukraine, “recipients with assets inside the country” are likely to continue passing certain information to Ukraine.
The restrictions will nevertheless hamper time-sensitive intelligence crucial for conducting precision strikes against moveable Russian targets, according to the outlet. Sky News supported this claim, reporting that the restrictions are “selective” and are aimed at Ukraine’s ability to launch strikes.
Since then, the U.S. media has reported that the aid freeze remains in place, and that it is unclear whether Zelensky’s statement that Oval Office clash was “regrettable” was sufficient to lift the freeze.
The Oval Office spat on Feb. 28, after which the U.S. leaders berated Zelensky as “ungrateful” and not “ready for peace,” derailed the signing of a much-anticipated natural resources agreement between the two countries.
Ukraine’s leader reaffirmed his readiness to sign the deal in his statement on March 4, but CBS News reported that parameters are still unclear as Trump seeks better terms.
Bear in mind that this (perhaps partial) intelligence cut off occurs AFTER Zelensky issued a de facto apology to Trump, which Trump publicly accepted. If Trump wanted Ukraine to lose and Russia to win, it would be hard to see how his actions would be much different right now.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 8:46 AM
“Trump wanted a thank you” — we will be writing it on graves of dead Ukrainians.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Putin and Russia wasted no time taking advantage of the gift Trump and his team had just provided.
NEW: Multiple reports of Russian missiles pouring into Ukraine tonight, targeting civilians.
The US has shut off the intelligence Ukraine needs to protect itself.
This hotel in the southern city of Kryvyi Rih took a direct hit.
Trump has the blood on his hands of every Ukrainian casualty tonight.
— News Eye (@newseye.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 4:33 PM
US cuts off intel to Kyiv, hindering its long-range strikes, to build “confidence” (see Walz below).
Meanwhile: “Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 181 strike drones and three missiles … in the latest attack.” abcnews.go.com/Internationa…
US pressure on Moscow? Zilch.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 10:24 AM
You don’t build confidence when you cripple your ally in order to provide new opportunities for the country that is genocidally re-invading them. That’s not confidence building. It’s not being a legitimate intermediary. It’s demonstrating very, very clearly that you’ve turned coat, that you’re aiding a hostile foreign state – Russia – commit genocide against Ukraine. COL (ret) Waltz knows better.
I would guess intel & aid flow will at least partly resume in coming days. But plausible some restrictions on long-range strikes will remain. And damage is done. Imagine how this would play out for, say, NATO forces who need to strike deep in a hypothetical battle to reverse Ru advances in Baltics.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Before we get to President Zelenskyy’s address, I want to bring this reporting from The Rio Times to everyone’s attention.
The United States recently blocked the sale of Saab’s Gripen E fighter jets to Colombia, citing restrictions on the export of the General Electric F414-GE-39E engine, a critical component of the aircraft.
This decision, first reported by defense analysts and later confirmed by multiple sources, underscores Washington’s strategic control over military technology exports and its influence on regional defense policies.
The veto has left Colombia scrambling for alternatives and raised concerns about similar restrictions affecting Peru, which is also evaluating the Gripen E as part of its air force modernization efforts.
Colombia had been negotiating a deal worth approximately €3 billion (around $3.2 billion) to replace its aging fleet of Kfir fighter jets with the Gripen E. The Swedish aircraft was favored for its advanced technology, cost-effectiveness, and ability to patrol large territories without refueling.
Saab had also proposed partnerships to boost local industry, making the Gripen an attractive option. However, the U.S. veto on the engine export effectively halted these plans, forcing Colombia to reconsider its options.
I want to emphasize that this is NOT just being done to try to force Colombia to buy F-16s. Rather, it is being done to send a VERY overt message by Trump’s natsec team to all allies and partners: if any weapon system or munition has US parts in them, then we will stop their sale or redistribution (end state usage). Remember, Sweden is considering sending Ukraine a batch of Gripens that would otherwise have been retired and scrapped. Since they have US made engines, the Trump natsec team has a veto! Same with anymore F-16s getting to Ukraine. This takes the Biden natsec team’s implicit extortion on its allies and partners regarding providing what Ukraine was asking for and makes it explicit.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today, Ukrainian and American Teams Began Working on an Upcoming Meeting – Address by the President
5 March 2025 – 19:05
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
A few updates for today.
A report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – frontline, Kursk, our positions, our actions. The brigades have everything they need. I am grateful to our warriors – the resilience of the army gives confidence to the entire nation and, of course, to our diplomacy. Today, I want to specially commend the 425th Separate Assault Battalion – thank you for your determination, guys. Also, the 225th Assault Regiment and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade for their operations in the Donetsk region, specifically in the Novopavlivka direction. And also our warriors of the Special Operations Forces for their actions in the Kursk region.
Domestic production is a top priority. We are preparing agreements to ramp up Ukrainian arms manufacturing, with a focus on drones for the frontline to protect the lives of our warriors.
There were also extensive international activities today – I had conversations with the Prime Ministers of the Netherlands, Portugal, and Slovenia, as well as the Chancellor of Germany. Thank you for the support. We are preparing for the EU summit, which will take place tomorrow in Brussels. Everyone can see how fast diplomatic events are unfolding. Today, Ukrainian and American teams began working on an upcoming meeting. Andriy Yermak and Mike Waltz held talks, and we’re seeing forward momentum. We hope to see the first results next week. We must also reignite progress on our European path, particularly concerning our European integration – clusters in the process of accession negotiations. We count on the support of our partners.
And one more update. Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal delivered a report today on domestic matters, including financial stability. Starting March 1, Ukraine traditionally adjusts pensions – this year by 11.5%. In total, more than ten million pensioners will receive increased payments in March. I urge everyone in the Pension Fund, regional authorities, and local governments to be as attentive as possible. If our pensioners have any questions about their payments, please assist them, provide clear explanations, and do your best to support them during this time.
Thank you to everyone working for Ukraine, and to everyone fighting for our country and our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Rustaveli is blocked today too. Day 98 of continuous protests.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Day 98 of continuous protests. “Georgia rise up! Revolt!” is chanted. And you can hear the crazy wind. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Zurab Michael Vardanashvili— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Two owner girls of Krab Coffee, a small coffee place that offers beverages for protesters for free, have been brutally beaten. One of them has her nose broken.
Very manly, very traditional, very sovereign. #terrorinGeorgia— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 12:19 PM
One of the girls has broken teeth, needs a dental implant, and a damaged spleen. Another one is undergoing nose surgery. And the police threatened THEM with retaliation.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 3:44 PM
The girls fought back and now the regime police tells them to revoke their report because “the violence happened from both sides,” indicating that they will be the ones jailed. #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Judge Irakli Shvangiradze has closed the courtroom where 11 people arrested for protesting are on trial. He declared the hearing closed after the defendants’ speeches were met with applause in the courtroom. Shouts of “Until the end!” could be heard inside.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 12:44 PM
A trial of several regime prisoners facing charges on “violence” without any evidence has been going on for 11 hours.
People chant “until the end!” a frequent exclamation meaning we will not stop until we are victorious. 15 were expelled.
Lots of police outside. #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
One of the protesters, Irakli Kerashvili, said at today’s hearing:
“The prosecution calls us violent, but I have been a doctor and a selfless blood donor since I was 18. I have always found happiness in caring for the health of those around me.”
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 12:52 PM
🧵1/ Mzia Amaghlobeli’s attorneys published a statement saying that the journalist is not only being held in unlawful detention, but that the judiciary in Georgia has demonstratively stripped her of the opportunity to defend herself and prove her innocence.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 7:50 AM
2/ “The court fully granted the prosecution’s motion and excluded 17 witnesses, 18 pieces of video evidence, 13 inspection reports, and 14 written pieces of evidence from the defence.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 7:50 AM
3/ By doing so, the court deprived Mzia Amaghlobeli of her right to a defence and failed to uphold her right to a fair trial, even at the procedural level. This type of ruling has no precedent in the Georgian judiciary”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 7:50 AM
4/ On March 4 Batumi City Court Judge Viktor Metreveli upheld the pre-trial detention of the co-founder and director of Netgazeti and Batumelebi.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 7:50 AM
5/ The prosecution accuses the journalist of attacking a police chief. Amaglobeli, who is in pre-trial detention, was on a hunger strike for 38 days.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 7:50 AM
I don’t think many Americans comprehend that PUTIN is responsible for the deaths and injuries of MILLIONS.
In Ukraine, in Syria, in Chechnya, in Georgia, and around 800,000 of his own troops.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 9:21 AM
France:
Big announcement from Macron: “I have decided to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent through our nuclear deterrent.”
— Mark Chadbourn (@chadbourn.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
In his address to nation: “The Russian threat is there and affects the countries of Europe, affects us. Russia has made the Ukrainian conflict a global conflict. Russia is testing our limits. Russia has become a threat to France and to Europe.”
— Mark Chadbourn (@chadbourn.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:45 PM
“The future of Europe does not have to be decided in Washington or Moscow.”
— Mark Chadbourn (@chadbourn.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
“The United States, our ally, has changed its position on this war, is supporting Ukraine less and is leaving doubts about what will happen next.”
— Mark Chadbourn (@chadbourn.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Macron has invited European army chiefs to Paris next week to discuss plans for the new defence.
— Mark Chadbourn (@chadbourn.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Macron announced stronger defence, ongoing support for Ukraine, and action against Russian threats. He urged European unity, military investment, and economic independence to secure lasting peace.
Read the full speech in English here:
www.frenchdispatch.eu/p/en-macrons…
— Julien Hoez (@julienhoez.eu) March 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
‘”Responding to the historic appeal of the future German Chancellor [Friedrich Merz], I decided to open the strategic debate on the protection by our [nuclear] deterrence of our allies of the European continent,” announced Mr. Macron’ lemonde.fr/international/…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Macron: ‘Russia “continues to rearm” & by 2030, “plans to further increase its army, to have 300,000 add’l soldiers, 3,000 tanks…. “Who can believe … that today’s Russia will stop at Ukraine? “Russia has become, … for the years to come, a threat to France and Europe,”’
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Germany:
Big policy shifts are taking place in Berlin now, as CDU/CSU and SPD currently negotiating a new coalition have submitted legislation to the Bundestag that will eliminate the debt ceiling for defense spending–a significant move towards a stronger, better armed Europe. Go Germany!
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Back to Ukraine.
⚡️Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 2, injure 7 over past day.
Ukraine’s air defense shot down 115 drones over Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Cherkasy oblasts, the Air Force said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 5, 2025 at 3:41 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian attacks against Ukraine killed at least two civilians and injured at least seven others over the past day, regional authorities reported on March 5.
Russian forces launched 181 drones from the Russian cities of Oryol, Kursk, Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsk-Akhtarsk, and from Cape Chauda in the Russian-occupied Crimea against Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.
Russia also reportedly launched three Iskander M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast and an S-300 anti-aircraft guided missile from Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine’s air defense shot down 115 drones over Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Cherkasy oblasts, the Air Force said.
Another 55 drones disappeared from radars without causing any damage, according to the statement. Drones that disappear from radars before reaching their targets are often decoys that Russia launches alongside real drones to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense.
In Kherson Oblast, Russia targeted 29 settlements, including the regional center of Kherson, over the past day. As a result of the attacks, one person was killed and six others were injured, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.
Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast and its regional center of Odesa with drones and ballistic missiles, according to Governor Oleh Kiper.
During the attack, Russia targeted critical infrastructure in Odesa, causing power, water, and heat supply outages in the city. A Russian strike against the village of Lymanka on Odesa’s outskirts killed a 77-year-old man, according to the statement.
Russian aerial strikes also targeted an energy facility of Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, in Odesa Oblast overnight, the company announced. This was the fourth Russian attack in two weeks on the oblast’s power grid.
In Donetsk Oblast, a Russian strike injured a civilian in the town of Pokrovsk, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces attacked the village of Kozacha Lopan with a glide bomb, injuring a 41-year-old man, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov.
McDonald’s in Ukraine, which is 100% owned by McDonald’s Corporation, is one of many American corporations operating in the country. Some of them had US citizens as employees. Doesn’t seem like the Russians cared. Poor security guarantee, if you ask me.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Aerial reconnaissance of the 413th Separate Battalion “Raid” detected and destroyed a concentration of Russian Armed Forces personnel and ground-based robotic systems.
Following this, the position was struck using FPV drones and artillery, including 155mm cluster munitions.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 3:08 PM
F-16 pilot Karaya thanked the American people for supporting Ukraine. Video shows footage from the cockpit of a fighter jet flying over Ukraine.
www.instagram.com/p/DGyw14bIhBR/— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Kryvyi Rih:
UPD Kryvyi Rih. Two civilians killed and 14 injured.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 5:08 PM
🔥🇺🇦 Hotel in Kryvyi Rih BEFORE and AFTER the attack of Russian terrorists!
2 people died, 7 were injured, 14 people were rescued.
A rescue operation is underway, people are being evacuated from the 3rd and 4th floors.
This is what “Russia’s readiness for peace” looks like!— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Odesa:
Russians continue to show how much they want negotiations, so last night, as a result of drone strikes, private houses, a post office, energy facilities, and port infrastructure in Odesa were destroyed.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Kherson:
The M30 DPICM cluster rocket strikes a concentration of Russian personnel at a training ground in Kherson Oblast.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 5:06 AM
Donetsk:
The center of Donetsk after 11 years of Russian occupation – the consequences of the Russian “peace.”
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Pokrovsk:
Cluster munition (M30 DPICM) strike on accumulation of Russian military personnel on the Pokrovsk front.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Russian milbloggers report that a Ukrainian local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk has started.
“Ukrainian forces expanded their assault today, achieving significant tactical gains. Fighting is intense, with up to two brigades attacking from Pokrovsk and one from Uspenivka. We struggle,” they add.
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) March 5, 2025 at 6:55 PM
The number of Russian assault operations continues to decline on the Pokrovsk front.
A new record low of 17 engagements was recorded on March 4, compared to the daily maximum of 30. The DeepState graph shows the dynamics since 2025, with recent data in blue.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Rostov Oblast, Russia:
In the Rostov region, the operation of an oil pumping station was suspended after a UAV attack last night. Russian media reports that the strike damaged an oil pipeline, causing a fuel spill and igniting a fire.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 5, 2025 at 1:09 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
🇺🇦 A Ukrainian sniper gets to know a local resident 😻
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Open thread!
Dougb
I’m thinking that perhaps one effective counter to threaten the United States with, in retaliation, would be to disregard the intellectual property rights of American corporations. Tell Trump and his team that if they continue hostile export restrictions, any restrictions on copying, producing, and distributing United States intellectual property will be removed. There are a lot of extra-territorial export provisions in contracts we sign with United States based companies.
Alternately Europe and other blocs could further develop their own technological and industrial capacity to remove the need to license US technology.
Steve LaBonne
@Dougb: They better be doing the latter in any case. Anybody in any other country who would still want to depend on the US for anything is crazy.
Gin & Tonic
I would argue, based on the evidence, that COL (ret) Waltz does not, in fact, know better.
The demonstrated ability of the US to shut off US-supplied weapons systems mid-engagement will be great for the US arms industry.
Gin & Tonic
@Gin & Tonic: But, boy, a real bull market for nuclear engineers coming.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1897392612606402684#m
YY_Sima Qian
Instead of providing Ukraine with/ the necessary aid to achieve significant battlefield victories, so that it can negotiate from position of strength & secure favorable terms, the Trump gang is working hard to provide conditions for Russian victories on the battlefield, to force Ukraine to accept highly unfavorable terms.
funlady75
thanks Adam.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Krasnov is doing everything his ruZZian handlers order him to do.
YY_Sima Qian
@Steve LaBonne: Since at least the GWOT, it has been the policy of Administration R & D to deeply integrate the NATO militaries w/ the US’, & the European MIC w/ the US’, to the point that NATO militaries could not function w/o US support & European MIC is dependent on IP & tech from the US MIC, all in the name of interoperability, to deeply bind them to the US led & centered alliance structure.
All the while Administrations D & R increasingly criticized the Europeans for being dependent & unable to shoulder their weight. Everyone went happily along because they thought the US led “liberal/rules based international order”, where a relatively aligned West occupy the most privileged position in the world & could dictate terms to the ROW, will last forever.
Well, now the US’ allies & partners have been hung out to dry, w/ nary a speed bump from the DC “Blob”. That last part I am a little surprised by.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Whether there is direct ordering going on, the outcome is exactly the same.
YY_Sima Qian
If Trump completely abandons Taiwan (i.e., no material support or intel sharing, let alone direct intervention) if the sh*t really hits the fan, I guess there will not be much protest from the China Hawks, nor effective resistance from the natsec state, after all. The latter may be downstream of Musk pulverizing the US’ governance capacity in general.
trollhattan
Trump’s greatest inauguration gift seems to be a crate of bespoke shovels because the digging has never been deeper.
Who can trust any kind of treaty or other agreement with the US? In 2021 pretty much all our allies had a collective “Whew, glad that’s over” response and yet, this. Now. The best forensic accountants will never accurately calculate the damage.
Gloria DryGarden
@YY_Sima Qian: the world, ROW, is going to treat the US pretty badly over this, I suspect. We’ll bear a pretty heavy responsibility.
and my heart is breaking over it. Taiwan, Ukraine, a few other spots and peoples i take note if. But as Baud said the other day, world doesn’t care how we feel.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/IAPonomarenko/status/1896871853827788886#m
coin operated
@Gin & Tonic:
Made both of those arguments today on facespace. With the added joy that the pain of sharp declines in weapons purchases will be felt in the red states. Enjoy what you voted for, fuckers.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Yep.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@funlady75: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: The DC blob wants to still get paid for consulting work, get invited to parties and social events, and not get killed or have their kids killed by Trump’s supporters.
Yutsano
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m also wondering/worried what happens once the PRC loses its largest trading partner. Regardless of anything else geopolitically happening, the US is the largest consumer market in the world. Neither India nor Europe can raise their salaries fast enough to create a consumer market like the US, and for some reason the PRC is doing everything in its power to increase consumer demand except the one thing that will, which is paying people more. I’m not sure what kind of solution exists in the immediate. And nothing really drastic has happened yet. But I do worry about these things.
Then again, Dolt47 & Muskrat aren’t interested in keeping people out of poverty so that market might end up wrecking itself anyway.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: Hmm…my dad’s a retired nuclear engineer…
New Deal democrat
Thought this is also important to post here, along with Macron’s important speech:
https://bsky.app/profile/adamjschwarz.bsky.social/post/3ljndbmndys2o
French Senator Claude Malhuret: “Washington has become Nero’s court, with an incendiary emperor, submissive courtiers and a jester high on ketamine… We were at war with a dictator, we are now at war with a dictator backed by a traitor.”
The reaction in Europe has the distinct feeling of a Rubicon being crossed. And perhaps more than a whiff of August 1914 – not in terms of folly, but of events spinning out of control.
wombat probability cloud
What’s the downside of blowing off the sale/end use agreements with the US? In the short term it’s a nice FU to the Trump admin–who are free to litigate–but can’t be relied upon in the future anyway. It burns a bridge but signals a shift to arms acquisition from other sources, if and until, US policy changes. Or, from Sweden’s perspective, is the hitch finding alternative engines for the Gripens.
Jay
@wombat probability cloud:
There are some aspects of basically “software” that the US can remotely disable.
The major drawback to the “f/u”, we are using it anyway, is US tech sharing being shut off.
As the EU is finding out, they are going to have to do it their own way anyway.
Follow the Soviet model with the Topolev TU-4 or the Rolls Royce Neme jet engine.
Just copy it.
wombat probability cloud
@Jay: I’m familiar with the John Deere strategy, and what I take from it is that we should intensely search for independent alternatives. My impression is that the EU fully understands this now and is no longer waiting for the US to come to its senses. Will look at the TU-4 and Neme stuff now. Thanks.
wombat probability cloud
@wombat probability cloud: A related link in terms of an alternative: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/5/2308223/-Canada-should-dump-the-F-35-supply-contract?utm_campaign=trending
YY_Sima Qian
@Yutsano: The US is no longer the PRC’s largest trade partner, it is behind the ASEAN (w/ which the PRC has an FTA under the RCEP framework) & the EU. Exports to the US account for 15% of the PRC’s total exports, & 2% of GDP.
Of course, the total PRC dependence on US demand (& inversely, US dependence on PRC supply) is higher, as a portion of the PRC’s exports to the ASEAN is for transshipment, relabeling & final assembly before reexport to the US, to avoid the 1st round of Trump-Biden tariffs. However, there is no way to police routing through 3rd parties, unless the US imposes high tariffs on everyone (as has been mooted), & that will be economic suicide. One can try to police the content rules, but DOGE has been dismantling USG’s governance capacity, so good luck enforcing any kind of content rules. In any case, the Trump gang continues apace w/ the national suicide.
As for the PRC economy, the lackluster consumption is not due to low income, contra the likes of Michael Pettit, Paul Krugman & Brad Setser, but lack of consumer confidence (especially among the urban mass affluent that account for the bulk of private consumption) from the quadruple hits of deflating asset prices (real estate & stock market, which disproportionally affect the well off), COVID-19 overhang, regulatory assault on select tech sectors, & uncertainties on international trade. While there are pockets of the labor force suffering (the administrative state has seen layoffs & pay cuts, & the youngest cohort has high unemployment), households have been paying down debt & hoarding cash. Wages of white & blue collar workers have been increasing 5 – 6% annually, despite non-existent inflation. Any kind of direct cash payment to households in this environment would be saved, rather than spent, or used to re-inflate the housing bubble, which runs opposite of the government’s economic strategy. Furthermore, the PRC government has a lot more instruments to provide direct & indirect financial support the lowest income cohorts, far beyond direct cash transfers favored by liberal/neoliberal macroeconomists in the West. The PRC government is not interested in subsidizing the already well off urban mass affluent to get them to spend again.
Now, the PRC government has spent the past 3 years on fiscal consolidation, absorbed at least a portion of the excess housing stock, & has been releasing proactive signals & selective support measures since Sept./Oct. 2024. Real estate appears to have bottomed, domestic stock market woken up, “new productive forces” (as in emerging technologies) booming, & developments such as Black Myth: Wukong, RedNote, DeepSeek & Ne Zha 2 giving positive shots to popular vibes, consumer confidence (among the urban mass affluent) could be returning. Fairly significant stimulus (from fiscal impulse) has just been announced during the ongoing Two Sessions in Beijing. We shall see.
In any case, in most industries, domestic demand accounts for the vast majority of the PRC’s gargantuan industrial output (be they autos, chips, consumer electronics, home appliances, etc.), north of 80%, exports merely represent spill over. It just feels like PRC exports are deluging the ROW, because the scales are so enormous.
Jay
You just write a National Defense exclusion to copyright, patent and trademark laws, and pass it.
Treat US Tech like the Soviets and the US treated each other’s tech during the Cold War.
Steal it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Too true!
Gin & Tonic
@wombat probability cloud: Re “the John Deere strategy” – this is a lot funnier in retrospect.
wjca
When I read
I have to wonder what happens if Sweden just ignores him.
Jay
@wjca:
No more GE Jet engines
wombat probability cloud
@Jay: Which is probably the hitch: Could those engines be replaced by something else in a next-gen Gripen, or is the build wedded to the US tech?
wombat probability cloud
@Gin & Tonic: Yes, I relished that. Payback for bad strategy.
YY_Sima Qian
@wombat probability cloud: Changing out the engineer requires a redesign of the aircraft.
wombat probability cloud
@YY_Sima Qian: Clearly, but the question is how profound would the changes need to be?
YY_Sima Qian
@wombat probability cloud: It’s like designing a new aircraft.
Jay
@wombat probability cloud:
So the story of the Neme, is that the Rolls Royce jet engine at the time, was the most powerful, compact and reliable jet engine of the time.
The Soviets, ( long story) bought 4 in the post war.
Then they just reverse engineered it and made copies that powered Yaks, Migs and SU’s.
So change copyright, patent and other “intellectual property laws” with a carve out for National Defense, then build copies of the GE engine.
Sure, you will get blacklisted for exports from the US of new tech, but look at DeepSeek.
wombat probability cloud
@Jay: I’m frustrated at being throttled by idiots now helming the U.S. If Gripen redesign is insurmountable, or there are aspects of the engine tech that can’t be replicated, then I understand. But, if not, why not just blow off the US regs and sell/export the aircraft now (given that the US doesn’t seem to be bound by laws), and then reverse-engineer engines or search for alternatives?
Which is to say, I think we’re basically in agreement, yes?
Jay
@wombat probability cloud:
Yup,
plus, you (they) can wind up with a bleeding edge that greatly outmatches US weapons and tech.
For example, Ukraine no longer uses US Switchblade loitering munitions. ruZZia has learned how to jam them and Ukrainian “homemade” drones are much, much cheaper, faster, more powerful, unjammable or fiber optic controlled, have machine vision and AI.
eg. https://nitter.poast.org/wilendhornets/status/1896974288194081275#
The thing is, US Weapons purchases came with “security agreements” which were much more valuable than the weapons. Now they don’t and past agreements are worthless.
way2blue
@Jay:
(N.B., My son, who lives in Sweden, bought Rolls Royce stock when it was a dollar stock. Now… )
Sloane Ranger
@Dougb: I like the way you’re thinking!
Traveller
I am Ashamed to be an American….(seriously, I just feel Terrible) But
…maybe Europe can pull this off. I so hope so now that The United States has become an actual evil nation…not doing wrong by mistakes, but actively dropping into Gangsterism.
But this lifts my spirits a little…maybe Europe can save our Honor…and the world.
European-led Ukraine air protection plan could halt Russian missile attacks
Sky Shield proposal drawn up by military experts would be operated separately from Nato and deploy 120 fighter jets
Of course the United States could have done this 2 years ago and saved countless lives….and property, saved the destruction of a free nation.
Thumbs up for Brave Europeans.
“The Old World coming to save the New…”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20…issile-attacks
Traveller
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/06/european-led-ukraine-air-protection-plan-could-halt-russian-missile-attacks