I’m still fried, so other than a bit of analysis at the top of the update, I’m just going to run through the basics.
My latest: Zelensky is being forced into an “extortionist” “neocolonial plundering” of Ukraine’s riches, giving Trump and Putin unprecedented control of fossil fuels & minerals. Big Oil’s big prize awaits: Russia’s vast oil and gas fields. @rollingstone.com
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol…— Antonia Juhasz (@antoniajuhasz.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Svitlana Romanko of Ukraine is eager for peace but she says, “when fossil fuels—not just metaphorically, but literally—try to eliminate you from the planet, not just by climate destruction, but a very brutal and violent torturing way, people know that we must get rid of fossil fuels.”
#Climatesky— Antonia Juhasz (@antoniajuhasz.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 10:55 AM
From Rolling Stone: (emphasis mine)
It has been one week since a calamitous Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine ignited one of the most tumultuous periods in U.S.-Ukrainian relations since the 2022 Russian invasion. Overnight, Russia conducted one of its largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on March 6, targeting energy infrastructure. Senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials now plan to meet in Saudi Arabia next week.
Trump has made the signing of a so-called “Minerals Agreement” between the United States and Ukraine a precondition for subsequent efforts to end Russia’s war. But the agreement, described by one expert as “extortion,” goes well beyond minerals.
The deal would cut open Ukraine’s natural resource veins, and could leave the majority of its key resources — including fossil fuels — under Russian control. Fifty percent of Ukraine’s future earnings from its remaining natural resource wealth would go into a new fund under U.S. direction into which the United States would contribute nothing. The deal could benefit American and other Western companies but would provide few economic and no security guarantees to Ukraine.
It’s a steep price to pay for peace, but Ukraine may be forced to accept the deal given how closely aligned the Trump regime has become with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump is also laying the groundwork for the full reentry of Russia into the global economy, opening the door to a return of U.S. fossil fuel giants into one of the largest pools of oil and gas in the world.
“Everyone felt this, they knew, that if we want to stop Russia, we must get rid of fossil fuels,” Romanko tells me, the sense of urgency and purpose from that moment still clear in her voice three years later almost to the day when I reach her by phone in Ukraine. “We started organizing together to make a public call which was to end the global fossil fuel addiction that feeds Putin’s war machine.”
Trump has set the U.S. on a radically different path, seeking to isolate Ukraine while working to end what he has called “the war on fossil fuels.”
Oval Office Shakedown
Trump’s cringe-inducing shakedown of Zelensky in the Oval Office on February 28 was the kind of made-for-TV spectacle for which Trump lives. The entire meeting had the markings of a set-up, designed to denigrate and weaken Zelensky and embolden Putin.
Zelensky had ostensibly been brought to Washington to sign what has been dubbed “the Minerals Agreement,” though the actual title is the “Bilateral Agreement Establishing Terms and Conditions for a Reconstruction Investment Fund.” A draft of the agreement was published by the Kyiv Independentnewspaper on February 26. The fund is to be financed with future revenues from Ukraine’s state-owned natural resources and infrastructure, including oil, gas, coal, and minerals. After a press conference in the Oval Office, the two leaders were supposed to oversee the signing of the agreement, which Trump calls “a peace deal.” No deal was signed.
In the weeks leading up to the meeting, it seemed that Trump and members of his administration were methodically checking off a Putin wish list for ending the war. Trump went so far as to assert that Ukraine may or may not become a part of Russia “someday.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a meeting with Russia in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a peace deal; Ukraine was not invited. Attorney General Pam Bondi disbanded a task force aimed at seizing Russian oligarchs’ assets and ordered a halt to efforts to combat secret foreign influence campaigns in U.S. politics.
The U.S. had negotiated drafts of the “Minerals Agreement” to meet some of the terms requested by Ukraine, but it still failed to include Zelensky’s primary demand: a security guarantee from the U.S. to protect against future Russian aggression. From the outset of the Oval Office meeting, Trump brushed aside such requests, making clear that a security deal was off the table. “You don’t have the cards,” he said to Zelensky, “You are either going to make a deal, or we’re out.”
The U.S.-Ukraine “Minerals Agreement” may have begun with a focus on rare earth minerals, but that is not where it ended. It covers all of Ukraine’s natural resources and related infrastructure, and requires that half of all of Ukraine’s revenues from the “future monetization” of these resources be put into a Reconstruction Investment Fund jointly managed by the U.S. and Ukraine. The U.S. has made no financial obligation to the fund, which Trump views as “payback” for money the U.S. has already spent on Ukraine.
The U.S. could end up exercising a great deal of sway over the fund. The U.S. government holds “the maximum percentage of ownership of the fund’s equity and financial interests,” and “the decision-making authority” of the U.S. government “will be to the extent permissible under applicable United States laws” — though it’s not clear what level of control that means. The fund will also reinvest an undetermined percentage of its revenues in Ukraine to attract further investment.
Under the agreement, Ukraine’s natural resource assets are expansively defined as “deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure). For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine.” This final clarification is likely intended to protect Ukraine’s existing natural resource operations from the fund.
The description of the purpose of the fund is even broader in its scope. The fund is described as supporting “investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the fund agreement.” The governments intend “that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the fund agreement.”
There is no U.S. security guarantee. Instead, it says the U.S. government “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.” Detailed terms will be worked out by representatives of the two governments as part of the fund agreement, which will require ratification by the Ukrainian Parliament.
“We are taking from the Ukrainians without intending to give them anything back,” she says, shock filling her voice. “If we’re not willing to give them a security guarantee, it just seems crazy,” Gross tells me. “If we want to invest in Ukraine, then we ought to do this contract by contract, like you would normally when you invest in a country.”
Popova, of McGill University. says that Zelensky “probably didn’t expect the situation that we have right now, which is that it seems that the Trump administration thinks that they can have their cake and eat it too — they can restore and reset friendly relationships with Russia and at the same time take advantage of investing in Ukraine.”
Much, much more at the link.
Following the meeting, the White House plowed ahead with its Putin wish list, announcing a pause in U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a halt on sharing military intelligence with Ukraine, and the initiation of steps to lift U.S. sanctions against Russia. Members of the administration are also reportedly backing negotiations with Russia to restart the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — the crown jewel of Russian energy.
Around half of the €200 million funds for the Tallinn Mechanism — a key effort by the U.S., EU and NATO to provide cyber support to Ukraine — have evaporated after the US pulled its funding, Estonia’s cyber ambassador told me today. More in NatSecDaily: www.politico.com/newsletters/…
— Maggie Miller (@maggiemiller.bsky.social) March 7, 2025 at 5:59 PM
To answer to Ambassador Sepp’s question the “justification for this,” as well as the bottom line reality of what Rolling Stone has reported that Trump is trying to do, is to force Ukraine to give up its defense against Putin’s/Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, force Zelenskyy from office so Putin can install a puppet replacement, all so Trump can do business with Putin. It would also mean that despite withstanding Putin’s and Russia’s genocidal re-invasion for the past three years, and the more limited one for almost eleven years, that Ukraine as Ukraine would functionally cease to exist. There might be a rump statelet in what is now western and part of central Ukraine, but that would still be under Putin’s and Russia’s control. eastern and much of central Ukraine would be directly under Russia’s thumb. And the US will simply take whatever wealth Ukraine has in the ground for itself as profit all while functionally indenturing Ukrainians. Thats what this and all related Trump admin efforts are.
I understand that President Zelenskyy has no choice but to go through the motions right now, but I do not see how he or any other potential Ukrainian president, Zaluzhnyi for instance, could sign onto what Trump is demanding. Only someone willing to be Putin’s puppet and Trump’s useful idiot would.
7 months ago today I bombed that kids hospital in Kiev. But as Trump says, “it’s what anyone would do”.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Literally Every Day, Russia Proves With Its Cruelty That Nothing Has Changed for Them in Moscow – Address by the President
8 March 2025 – 20:22
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, throughout the day, rescue efforts continued in the city of Dobropillya in the Donetsk region after the Russian strike. It was one of the most brutal strikes, a combined one. The strike was deliberately calculated to cause maximum damage.
Missiles, along with a “Shahed” drone, targeted the central part of the city. Nine residential buildings were hit. Also, the shopping center and stores were struck. Tragically, eleven people were killed. My condolences to their families and loved ones.
Among the victims is an employee of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. The second strike occurred when the rescuers started working. 50 people were wounded. All of them received the necessary assistance. Among the wounded are seven children, the youngest is a 10-year-old girl.
There were also other shellings today in the Donetsk region, as well as the Kharkiv and our southern regions. In Kherson, there was another strike by FPV drones on civilians. Literally every day, Russia proves with its cruelty that nothing has changed for them in Moscow. They are thinking not about how to end the war, but about how to destroy and capture more as long as the world allows them to keep waging this war.
Of course, we are doing our utmost to protect lives. And I am grateful to all the leaders, all those diplomats of our partner countries, all public figures who support Ukraine, who have condemned these Russian strikes and who call all things by their proper names. And it is essential that we continue coordinating all our efforts with our partners to ensure that our defense works effectively and that we do everything to bring peace closer.
Today, our teams – of Ukraine and the United Kingdom – have been working here in Kyiv on steps that may be helpful. We continue to actively communicate with all Europeans. Many meetings, many talks will be held in the near future. I believe that decisions will follow.
We also stay in constant contact with the American team. We are preparing a meeting in Saudi Arabia. I am sure that the meeting will be productive: we in Ukraine are committed to this. Absolutely. On the Ukrainian side, there will be diplomatic and military representatives, Head of the Office Yermak, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sybiha, several other representatives of Ukraine’s diplomatic corps, Minister of Defense Umerov and Deputy Head of the Office Pavlo Palisa – a combat commander who knows the frontline very well and understands the situation in the brigades. We will do everything to ensure that Ukraine’s interests are taken into account – taken into account just as they should be.
I am also expecting a report from the Minister of Defense on new support packages: primarily air defense systems and investments in our defense production. These are indeed top priorities for us. Now, almost every day, our partners in Europe are adopting such new support decisions. The main thing is to implement them as soon as possible. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
“Protest Like a Girl” — Women Against the Regime | Protest March in Tbilisi Today
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 101📷 Mariam Qavshbaia/Publika
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Day 101. Women’s march joins the Rustaveli protest on International Women’s Day. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 12:54 PM
“Women Against the Regime” — Women’s March on March 8, International Women’s Day, marking the 101st day of continuous protest.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Yesterday, March 7, four people were detained for several hours for shining a laser on the parliament building and writing various messages. The inscriptions read: ‘Freedom’, ‘100 days of protest.’ After their release, the police kept the laser.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 1:13 AM
The US:
⚡️ US to stop participating in future military exercises in Europe.
The U.S. has told its allies that it does not plan to participate in military exercises held in Europe beyond those already scheduled in 2025, Swedish media outlet Expressen reported.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 8, 2025 at 9:01 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
The United States has notified its allies that it does not plan to participate in military exercises held in Europe beyond those already scheduled in 2025, Swedish media outlet Expressen reported on March 7.
Sources told Expressen that this will affect several exercises currently in the “drawing board” phase that will be held in Sweden.
Since his inauguration in January, U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that he wants to pivot American security priorities away from Europe and focus on China and the Indo-Pacific Region.
He shocked allies with recent moves including ending military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, excluding European allies from peace talks held with Russia in Saudia Arabia, and has repeatedly pressuring NATO allies to increase their defense spending.
In response, a rattled Europe has begun preparing itself for a world order in which the United States cannot be relied on. EU member states agreed to free up what could amount to an unprecedented 800 billion euros ($867 billion) for defense spending.
The United States regularly carries out joint operations with European allies each year to increase cooperation and test troop readiness.
“The Telegraph understands that the president is considering redeploying troops from Germany to Hungary, which has maintained a close relationship with Russia.” www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 2:32 AM
“Mr Trump is said to be considering repositioning some US troops in Europe so they are focused around Nato countries that have upped their defence spending to meet GDP targets.” www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 2:33 AM
From The Telegraph:
Donald Trump is considering pulling US troops from Germany and redeploying them to Eastern Europe, The Telegraph can reveal.
Mr Trump is weighing up withdrawing some 35,000 active personnel out of Germany in a move that would further sour US-Europe relations.
The US president, who has repeatedly warned that Europe must commit more to its defensive capabilities, is becoming increasingly frustrated that the continent is “pushing for war”, sources close to the administration said.
Around 160,000 active-duty personnel are stationed outside of the United States, a vast quantity of whom are in Germany.
“Trump is angry that they [Europe] appear to be pushing for war,” a source close to the White House said.
Brian Hughes, a US national security spokesman, said: “While no specific announcement is imminent, the US military is always considering the redeployment of troops around the world to best address current threats to our interests.”
Both of these are a combination of strategic malpractice and strategic ignorance. It is cutting off the nose of one’s national power to spite one’s face. Our EU and NATO allies and partners are the same allies and partners we rely on outside of Europe. Other than Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, our Asian Pacific allies and partners are not going to be much help outside of that region. That’s not a knock on them or their professionalism, but a reflection of both their strategic concerns and their capabilities.
I’ve heard from a solid source that medical supplies from US to frontline medics in Ukraine are being withheld through USAID and military logistics. If true this is absolutely unacceptable.
— Adam Kinzinger (@adamkinzinger.bsky.social) March 7, 2025 at 11:40 AM
This is just adding insult to injury.
Pretty much everywhere at this point:
IAEA DG Grossi: “A few years ago this discussion about nuclear weapons would have been taboo … But now these conversations are taking place in some countries. It’s a constant erosion of norms.”
— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd.bsky.social) March 7, 2025 at 9:39 PM
It is not an erosion of norms. It is an unfortunate reflection of reality. Back in early 2014 when we did the first planning meeting once it became clear that Putin was up to something regarding Ukraine, at one point in the discussion I provided the textbook answer that “no one is going to get in a fight with another nuclear weapons state over Crimea.” With eleven years of hindsight, I wish I could take that moment back. It might be the textbook answer, but it is the morally and strategically wrong answer. Had we and our allies and partners bloodied Putin’s nose in late Spring/early Summer of 2014, we would’ve saved the Ukrainians, our allies and partners, and ourselves a lot of pain, grief, trouble, and in the case of Ukraine loss of life. It has become very clear that the only way to guarantee one’s territorial integrity is to have a nuclear weapons program, if not actual nuclear weapons. That it has taken three years for everyone to learn this lesson is what’s surprising. This is the unfortunate clarity that emerges from Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion.
The EU:
Deja vu. “A proposed €150bn injection into the EU’s defence industry has become a new flashpoint in a long-standing battle between France and Germany over the continent’s rearmament drive and whether it should include countries outside the bloc.” www.ft.com/content/7693…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 7:37 AM
‘“It is very important to us that the projects that can be supported with this are open to . . . countries that are not part of the European Union but work closely together, such as Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland or Turkey,” Scholz said.’ www.ft.com/content/7693…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Of course Russia will test article 5. Putin has really bad judgement, think invasion of Ukraine for example. Also, Europe is not really signaling it will pull its gun first. Communication of resolve needs to be upped in Europe. Read more about resolve here: cepa.org/article/reso…
— Anders Östlund (@andersostlund.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 9:40 AM
From Ukrainska Pravda:
Bruno Kahl, President of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), suggests that Russia is considering testing NATO’s collective security guarantees and that this risk will increase if the fighting in Ukraine stops in the near future.
Source: Bruno Kahl in an interview with Deutsche Welle, as European Pravda reported with the reference to dpa, a German news agency
Details: Bruno Kahl believes Russia will likely want to test the unity of Western countries and the effectiveness of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides that an attack on one of the NATO member states is considered an attack on all of them.
Quote from Bruno Kahl: “We very much hope this is not true and that we will not be put in the difficult position of it being tested. However, we must assume that Russia wants to test us, to put the unity of the West to the test.” Details: The BND president says that the timing and probability of such a “test” are directly related to how events in the Russo-Ukrainian war will continue to develop.
Kahl noted that if the war ends before 2029-2030, Russia will be able to become a threat to Europe more quickly.
“It is also possible that a concrete threat or blackmail attempt from Russia against Europeans could occur earlier than previously calculated. An early end to the war in Ukraine would enable the Russians to direct their energy where they actually want it, namely against Europe,” said Bruno Kahl.
The head of intelligence says Russia hopes that the future world order will be similar to that of the 1990s, that the Russian “sphere of influence” will expand further west, and that, in the most desirable scenario, the United States will withdraw its troops from Europe.
Background:
- On 4 March, the German parties CDU/CSU and SPD, which are negotiating the formation of a government led by Friedrich Merz, agreed on a multi-billion dollar package of defence and infrastructure financing on credit.
- All defence expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP will be exempt from debt restrictions.
- German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a “historic day” for the Bundeswehr and Germany.
The EU and its member states are going to have to get their acts together and quickly. Interstate war has been on their doorstep for three years, a world war for a decade. You would think this would concentrate some minds.
Four large satellite operators — Luxembourg’s SES, Spain’s Hisdesat, Viasat, owner of the UK’s Inmarsat, and France’s Eutelsat/OneWeb — have all told @financialtimes.com they’re in talks with governments and EU institutions about how to provide back-up connectivity to Ukraine. on.ft.com/4kyetAE
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) March 8, 2025 at 6:03 AM
From The Financial Times:
Europe is rushing to provide Ukraine with alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink broadband satellite network, after the US withdrew military aid and intelligence sharing from the country this week.
Four large satellite operators — Luxembourg’s SES, Spain’s Hisdesat, Viasat, owner of the UK’s Inmarsat, and France’s Eutelsat/OneWeb — have all confirmed to the Financial Times that they are in talks with governments and EU institutions about how to provide back-up connectivity to Ukraine.
But replacing the ubiquitous laptop-sized devices that have become so crucial to Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression remains a tall order. More than 40,000 terminals are in operation across the military, hospitals, businesses and aid organisations, according to Ukraine’s digital minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
Miguel Ángel García Primo, chief executive of Spain’s secure government satellite services provider Hisdesat, said his company had been contacted by several European officials. “We are part of this initiative,” he said.
Last week’s clash in the Oval Office between Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy had prompted “immediate discussions about whether the EU could provide alternatives”, he added.
European leaders this week rallied behind Zelenskyy at a summit in Brussels where they also pledged to significantly increase their own defence capabilities. Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov also talked to his German counterpart Boris Pistorius in Berlin, including on the effort to set up a European back-up to Starlink.
Zelenskyy is set to begin talks with the US next week on ending the war, but concerns remain that access to Starlink could be used to pressure Kyiv into agreeing an unfavourable deal.
Starlink’s speed and reliability has made it an integral part of the way the war is fought in Ukraine. In command posts set up in basements and hide-outs, officers get a constant, real-time stream of footage used to direct artillery and drone strikes.
Ukrainian forces also use Starlink because it is less vulnerable to Russian jamming devices, compared with traditional radio communications, said Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military expert.
But the service has been patchy in recent months, particularly in areas close to the frontline. “It’s been like that for a while now,” said one drone operator near the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk, which Russian forces have been seeking to capture since last year.
In the short term, a patchwork of European services operating from different orbits could be used as back-up — including for secure government communications and internet connectivity in cities, hospitals or energy plants.
But it is “very difficult if not impossible for someone to deploy the same number of terminals Starlink already has because they have been accumulated over years”, said García Primo.
Lluc Palerm Serra, research director at space consultancy AnalysysMason, said: “There are alternatives but there are none that can offer the level of supply that Starlink has.” Even if all of Europe’s capacity over Ukraine were aggregated, it would still fall short of that provided by Starlink.
Starlink is flying more than 7,000 satellites in low orbit at roughly 550km above sea level. The satellites travel so quickly over any given point on the Earth that there is constant access to signals from the ground, he said.
The speed at which signals make the return journey from Earth to space and back is faster on Starlink devices than on rival services relying on fewer satellites travelling in higher orbits. Yet the difference may only be fractions of a second, so latency may only be an issue for certain applications.
More at the link.
Here too, the hour is far too late. These discussions should have begun back in late 2022/early 2023 when it became clear that Musk was caging/geofencing Ukraine’s access.
The UK:
Congratulations to the senior Tories who, having been told this for a mere 60 years, and staunchly denied it throughout, have finally twigged that it might not be a brilliant idea to have a nuclear deterrent which can be switched off by another state.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m…— George Monbiot (@georgemonbiot.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 5:10 AM
From The Guardian:
Britain’s ability to rely on the US to maintain the UK’s nuclear arsenal is now in doubt, experts have warned, but working with European states to replace it will be costly and take time.
An existing debate about the future of Trident – Britain’s ageing submarine-launched nuclear missile system – has taken a dramatic new turn in recent weeks amid fears Donald Trump could pull out of Nato.
A range of concerns had already loomed over the £3bn-a-year programme, not least around its efficiency and effectiveness after a second embarrassing failed test launch last year.
Costs have also been a longstanding challenge but replacing Vanguard submarines on time has been prioritised over coming in under budget.
Downing Street sought to play down concerns earlier this week after diplomatic figures including the former British ambassador to the US Sir David Manning floated the scenario of an end to Anglo-US nuclear cooperation.
However, calls for Britain to make alternative plans have been joined by the former UK foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who initiated talks in the 90s between the UK and France on nuclear weapons cooperation.
“It really is necessary for Britain and France to work more closely together because if American reliability ever came into question, then Europe could be defenceless in the face of Russian aggression,” he said.
“The contribution by America must now be to some degree in doubt, not today or tomorrow, but over the next few years and certainly as long as Trump and people like him are in control in Washington.”
A No 10 spokesperson insisted this week that Keir Starmer viewed the US as a reliable ally, saying: “The UK’s nuclear deterrent is completely operationally independent.”
Yet the UK is – unlike France – highly intertwined with the US when it comes to maintaining its nuclear weapons, which are designed, manufactured and maintained in the US under a deal rooted in a 1958 agreement. Britain had 50 missiles left as of 2008 after purchases from a US stockpile, according to research by the University of Bradford.
“Britain likes to call its nuclear posture independent, but it, of course, is absolutely not,” said Hans Kristensen, who monitors the status of nuclear forces for the Federation of American Scientists, a US thinktank.
“It may be that Britain can fire weapons independently of the US, but below that, the entire infrastructure covering missile compartments on submarines, the missiles themselves, all are supplied by the Americans.”
Defence analysts are emphasising the need to plan for a scenario where a transatlantic relationship fractures to the extent that the US declines to give the UK missiles.
At the rate Trump and his team are going, I’m not sure the US is going to have any allies and partners left in a month or so.
Back to Ukraine.
They hold the line, hold their families together, and hold on—even when it feels impossible. Their resilience is unbreakable.
Happy #InternationalWomensDay to the unstoppable #UkrainianWomen!
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 1:11 PM
#InternationalWomensDay
#UkrainianView— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Kyiv:
Anti-aircraft fire in Kyiv as Russian/Iranian Shahed flying bomb drones attack the Ukrainian capital. Most of east and north-central Ukraine on alert due to Shaheds, some of which are headed west.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
A Ukrainian MiG-29 crew destroyed a hangar with equipment and a group of Russian troops. Overnight, APCs and IFVs were moved in, but Ukrainian intelligence took note. At dawn, as the Russians prepared their equipment, Ukrainian aviation delivered a precise strike. Kursk direction.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 12:29 PM
This is what Sudzha looks like today. Russian drone operators filmed a video of the half-destroyed city.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 1:17 PM
⚡️Russian troops reportedly attack Sudzha as Ukraine’s logistical routes are cut off.
Russian and North Korean troops launched an attack on the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState and journalist Yury Butusov reported on March 8.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 8, 2025 at 1:30 PM
From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect comments made by the press service of the Kursk military command to the Kyiv Independent on the ongoing situation near Sudzha.
Russian and North Korean troops have launched an attack on the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState and Yury Butusov, chief editor of the news site censor.net, reported on March 8.
Multiple Russian pro-war Telegram channels claimed on March 8 that Russian troops have launched a large-scale offensive in Kursk Oblast and are storming Sudzha.
The press service for Kursk military command told the Kyiv Independent that “the most large-scale assault operations by the enemy have occurred in the direction from the settlement of Korenevo toward Sudzha, as well as in the areas of Novoivanivka, Mala Loknya, and south of the city of Sudzha.”
“The situation remains difficult but is under the control of our command,” the statement to the Kyiv Independent read, adding that Russian forces were sustaining “heavy losses” in the region.
“The enemy has deployed its most combat-ready units for these assaults,” the statement added, noting that North Korean soldiers formed two of the battalions currently attacks the front line.
Russian forces have recently intensified efforts to break through to Sumy Oblast and cut off logistical routes of the Ukrainian salient in bordering Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces have destroyed Ukrainian troops’ logistics in Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian soldiers face the risk of encirclement, a Ukrainian soldier and a medic deployed in the region told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity on March 7.
Amid reportsearlier this week that Russian troops are trying to break through the Russia-Ukraine border in Sumy Oblast, the statement denied the claims, adding that small reconnaisance groups infultrating Ukrainian territory “are gradually being eliminated.”
Butusov wrote on Facebook on March 8 that Russian troops had used a gas pipeline to approach Ukrainian positions in Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. He added that the troops are being “liquidated.”
DeepState confirmed that Russian troops had tried to attack Sudzha through a pipeline but reported that the results of the operation are unknown.
According to DeepState, North Korean troops are rapidly advancing near Sudzha, acting as the main offensive force and also bearing the heaviest casualties.
“The situation in the buffer zone in Kursk Oblast continues to intensify and requires immediate decisions from the (Ukrainian) command,” Butusov said.
Kyiv has sought to maintain its position in the Russian border region as leverage for possible peace talks.
Ukraine launched a surprise cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024. After six months of fighting in the region, Russian troops have regained control of about 64% of the territory in the region, the Russian military claimed.
The attempt to crawl through a gas pip to the outskirts of Sudzha was clearly planned in haste and only very recently. As recently as March 1, the well-known Russian drone operator Moisey was searching for oxygen tanks in the Kursk region and threatening to ban anyone questioning their necessity.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:46 PM
While this isn’t definitive proof, it raises the question of whether this urgency to counter-attack in Kursk is linked to the broader geopolitical situation and the stance of the current White House administration.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Russian assault troops SUFFOCATED in a gas pipe near Sudzha in the Kursk operational zone.
Ukraine’s airborne assault forces have confirmed that the enemy attempted to use a gas pipeline to establish a foothold on the outskirts of Sudzha in the Kursk operational zone.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:19 PM
The Russians had previously claimed this operation was successful. A similar tactic was used by the occupiers in Avdiivka.
Despite making it through the sewer, the invaders were promptly detected by air recon units and attacked with various types of weaponry, including missiles and artillery.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Interestingly, a significant portion of the enemy troops were not just eliminated by fire but literally suffocated. Exact casualty numbers remain unclear.
The video shows the elimination of a group of neo-Bolsheviks who managed to emerge from the sewer.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:19 PM
I’ve seen the pictures of the actual suffocated Russian troops. I’m not posting them here and you DO NOT need to go look for them or at them.
The situation in the Kursk region looks somewhat concerning overall. It’s clear that the Russians will exaggerate any of their achievements as much as possible. It’s also not worth discussing the feasibility of the operation without an expert understanding of the situation.
1/3
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:37 PM
The fact remains that for eight months, the Russians were unable to dislodge the Defense Forces from this bridgehead, despite using all their best reserves and even sending thousands of North Koreans into battle.
2/3
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:37 PM
However, it would be interesting to understand whether Washington has any hand in the current situation. Who knows, but it seems rather suspiciously close to the recent news about Russians using Western satellites (and Ukrainians being cut off from them) that the Russian counter-offensive began.
3/3— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Russian Z-bloggers, who were celebrating the unstoppable march of Russian troops toward Sudja this morning and already reporting the city’s capture, have deflated like balloons and, as usual, are now trying to find someone to blame for their failures.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 2:47 PM
“The U.S. decision to suspend the flow of military intelligence to Ukraine this week has aided the Russian advance along a critical part of the front, weakening the negotiating position and killing many Ukrainian soldiers in recent days”
time.com/7265679/sate…
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:27 AM
By cutting off the intelligence sharing, Trump has enabled Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk. Which means he’s also made it easier for Russia should there ever be actual negotiations to end the war as it makes it more likely that Ukraine will not have a significant chunk of Kursk to bargain with.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Russian forces attacked critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, the regional administration reported, adding that gas and heating supplies may be restricted.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia was targeted by russia, leaving the region without natural gas for domestic use.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast:
UPD Dobropillia. The death toll from the russian missile attacks has risen to 11, with 30 other civilians injured, including five children.
#UkrainianView— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 1:57 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian forces launched multiple strikes on Dobropillia, a city in Donetsk Oblast, late on March 7, resulting in casualties and injuries, according to the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration.
At least 11 people have been killed and 30 injured, Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin initially reported, noting that more people could be trapped under the rubble. Some eight apartment buildings have been damaged, the official statement said.
Later in the day, he updated the number of wounded to 47. Seven of those injured were hospitalized in Dobropillia while three were evacuated to Dnipro. Among the wounded were seven children.
On March 8, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in his evening address that the number of injured people rose to 50.
“It was one of the most brutal strikes, a combined one. The strike was deliberately calculated to cause maximum damage,” Zelensky said. “Russia proves with its cruelty that nothing has changed for them in Moscow. They are thinking not about how to end the war, but about how to destroy and capture more as long as the world allows them to keep waging this war.”
Donestk Oblast declared a day of mourning in response to the attack, which was “one of the most brutal in recent times,” Filashkin said.
Dobropillia is located 94 kilometres northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk, the administrative center of the oblast.
“At least 8 five-story buildings, a shopping center, shopping pavilions, and 30 cars were damaged or destroyed. Some of the buildings burned down almost completely,” Filashkin wrote on Telegram.
The United States Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink called the news “horrible,” in a post on X and wrote, “The civilian population continues to bear the brunt of this war.”
First responders have been dispatched to the site of the attack and search and rescue operation were ongoing as of 4:30 pm.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to halt intelligence sharing with Kyiv has sparked concerns in Ukraine that Russian missile strikes could now strike the cities without prior warning.
The New York Times reported on March 6 that the freeze on intelligence sharing could hinder vital alerts about incoming Russian drones and missiles.
Trump made the announcement amidst a sharp decline in relations between Kyiv and Washington, as he pressures Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to his proposed peace talks with Russia.
Shortly after the freeze on March 5, a Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, killing four people and injuring at least 30, hammering home what’s at stake when Russian missiles are not intercepted.
Odesa:
Odesa after last night’s russian drone strike on the city
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast:
Today, a russian drone hit a meat processing plant in the Kharkiv region, ignating a major fire and killing 3 men.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Four russian Shahed drones attacked a meat processing plant in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast—russia will call it a NATO base—killing three civilians and injuring seven others.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 1:47 AM
The Pokrovsk front:
Russian logistics road, Pokrovsk front. Russians carry supplies on foot because roads are blocked by destroyed vehicles.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 4:45 AM
The Russian controlled/occupied portion of the Black Sea:
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian USVs Attack Russian Black Sea Gas Platform
Ukrainian Katran-Venom naval drones are attacking a Russian gas platform, according to a Russian channel.
The USV carries smaller drones or torpedoes, has machine guns, MANPADS, thermal optics, and uses Starlink control.
— Conflict Dispatch (@conflictdispatch.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Krishi, Leningrad Oblast:
Ukrainian Telegram channels claim six Ukrainian drones hit the Kinef oil refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast in Russia overnight, setting a fuel tank on fire. The refinery is more than 800 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 3:30 AM
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Lipetsk and Voronezh, Russia:
Buzzing flying objects were spotted over the cities of Lipetsk and Voronezh in Russia. In Lipetsk, there were at least seven explosions in the sky due to “air defense activity.” No videos are available yet. The operation to enforce peace through strength continues.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Voronezh, Russia:
⚡️ Ukraine destroys 2 diesel trains in Russia, military intelligence source say.
Two diesel trains were disabled in Russia as a result of Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) operations, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on March 8.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 8, 2025 at 3:15 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Two diesel trains were disabled in Russia as a result of Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) operations, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on March 8.
According to the HUR source, a train being used for transporting weapons and military equipment from Russia to occupied Ukraine was destroyed on the night of March 5-6 in the city of Voronezh. Another train was set on fire early on Feb. 19 the Orekhovo-Zuyevsky district of Moscow’s region.
The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify these claims.
Voronezh is located approximately 465 kilometers (289 miles) south of Moscow and around approximately 279 kilometers (173 miles) northeast of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian military intelligence and partisans within Russia have claimed responsibility for destruction of Russia trains multiple times in December, including two trains set ablaze near Moscow and the destruction of a train in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
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Today’s cat of conflict is Mariana’s cat Simba after her father brought him to the bath. Simba absolutely hates any ‘beauty routine,’ so usually he starts to ignore her family for around an hour to demonstrate his irritation.
— Tim Mak (@timkmak.bsky.social) March 8, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Looks like A. Q. Khan died too soon.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam!
I do think it is no longer useful to hold on to the framework that the US still has allies & partners, in Europe or in the Asia-Pacific, & that there are still alliance structures.
Steve LaBonne
I’m so deeply ashamed of my country. And I will never, ever forgive the monsters who have forced me to feel that way.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
I hate it when Zelensky starts looking that tired. It always means bad news.
Speaking of losing friends and allies, the Orange Fiend is now questioning the validity and legality of the treaty that set the border between Canada and the USA. Mofo wants the Great Lakes, all that beautiful, beautiful water. Reminder: Canada is a member of NATO. Oh, and in the famous phone call about the tariffs, apparently JD Vance and the Orange Menace tried to pull the same tag team shite they pulled on Zelensky on PM Justin Trudeau. It did not go well.
Thank you Adam. Maybe you should go freelance and start consulting for the EU. Seems like they could use some good advice.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: @Jay: @YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome.
Jay
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
DJTdiot also want’s Canada out of NORAD. 90% of the radars and rapid response airfields, (and aircraft), are Canadian.
We were supposed to go down to Lewis McCord for live fire joint exercises in June, now we are going to CFB Cold Lake. No ‘Merkins allowed.
Aziz, light!
My “Is He Dead Yet?” ball cap will be delivered next week.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/ChrisO_wiki/status/1898019984623665325#m
Thread.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Ivan X
I don’t like having to face the unpleasant possibility/reality is that Biden, myself, and countless others thought there was no way that Trump could win a second term; that the first one was a lark, surely not repeatable by the voters. We’re now in the second American Experiment.
Adam L Silverman
@Westyny: You’re welcome.
Noskilz
This is just so absolutely monstrous. I wish I had something more useful to say than that.
Adam L Silverman
@Ivan X: Fifth.
Something will come after Trump. Eventually. But there’s no way to know what it will be.
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: Climate disaster and mass population die off/extinction has my money on it.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Jay: Oh FFS! Russia wants the Arctic and the Orange Dumpster Fire is planning/trying to give it to him. Glad they changed the plans.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1898307057121362166#m
bad Jim
I appreciate the coverage of Georgia. For some reason the pictures of the demonstrations there deeply affect me. Perhaps I’m mistaking the Georgian alphabet for Elvish.
Although I’m deeply ashamed of Trump’s betrayal of a valiant ally, I’m old enough to remember when America was itself engaged in criminal wars in Vietnam and Iraq. What can I say? My country is at least occasionally on the right side?
The Atlantic continues to run articles which keep my hopes up, like “Russia Is Losing the War of Attrition”. A speech by a French Senator, “Trump is Nero While Washington Burns”, has this note of self-satisfaction:
Jesse
There are several impeachable offenses going on here. The first impeachment was about Trump impounding funds in exchange for generating dirt (true or not) on Biden. Look where we are now.
Darkrose
Thank you as always, Adam.
On another note, the degree to which I loathe JD Vance is almost more than I can put into words.
https://bsky.app/profile/eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social/post/3ljvtwbsaf22o
He claimed on the Nazi Bar that:
The shit person I see is the one who uses his kid as a human shield. Couchfucker is taking his cues from the Ketamine Klown.
Gloria DryGarden
@YY_Sima Qian: i think we’re foresworn.
who would trust any alliance or agreement with this administration? Of course not.
Do you think even China won’t deal with US?
im in hysterics over the cutting off of satélite intel. Maxar, who supplied that intel, is a private company, very close to where I live; I’m taking it very personally, this cut off of satellite imagery. If I thought a protest would make a difference …
my government is using my tax dollars to stab an ally in the back.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gloria DryGarden: I think countries will make deals w/ the Trump Administration, in full knowledge that it is not worth the paper they are printed on, simply to buy time to “de-risk” from dependence on the US & reduce vulnerability to US extortion & coercion.
Outside of the likes of Iran, NK, Cuba & Venezuela, the PRC is probably the furthest along in this process (having been fighting a trade war & a tech war since 2018), & the best positioned to succeed (having by far the largest, broadest & deepest industrial ecosystems in the world).
I suspect Beijing may actually be counting its blessings that Biden continued & expanded on the trade & tech wars started by Trump, contrary to early expectation. Had Biden reversed course on these matters, as was widely anticipated during the transition, Beijing’s efforts “de-risk” through indigenization & import substitution would have slowed significantly. All of the private sector players in the PRC, & even many in the public sector, would have reverted to US suppliers that are proven, reliable, & high quality. Then the PRC would be in a much more vulnerable position today as Trump returns.
YY_Sima Qian
Understandable angst in Australia:
MagdaInBlack
@Jay: Because of course he is. jfc.
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
The New Deal belongs in there too.
u
Rhetorical question: Is “Code Pink” actually being paid by Putin or are they just idiots? (I suspect the former.). https://www.codepink.org/whitehouseukrianeexchange
u
@u: It’s not difficult to imagine how these entitled twats would have reacted in September of 1939.
Adam L Silverman
The husband of one of Code Pink’s leaders works for the PRC.
u
@Adam L Silverman: Ha. Why am I not surprised. Back in my long ago (mid-seventies) college days at the University of Pennsylvania, I was the only kid that I knew who was from a blue-collar family. Either very rich kids or children of affluent doctors and lawyers. I managed to find a few friends who were not total assholes. Most of the wealthy kids had no aspirations beyond getting high, getting laid and making a lot of money after they graduated — but there were always a few rich kids who (for whatever psychological reason) loved to pretend that they were the reincarnation of Che Guevara. They were even worst than the Wharton kids; at least the Whartonites were honest about their nihilism. I guess things have gotten even worse in the past half-century.
u
@u: I guess this is a textbook example of the cooperation between the far-right and the cosplay-“left”. Code Pink OPENLY PRAISING TRUMP for his “reasonable” plan to abandon Ukraine to the kindness of Putin. Repulsive.