(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Earlier today, the Ukrainian delegation clearly stated that it was willing to agree to a thirty day truce with Russia, which everyone is referring to as a ceasefire.
‼️ Ukraine is ready to accept the US proposal for an immediate 30‑day ceasefire—if Russia agrees and acts simultaneously. The US immediately lifts its pause on intelligence sharing and resumes security assistance to Ukraine.
www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spil…
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Joint Statement of Ukrainian and American delegations following their meeting in Jeddah
11 March 2025 – 19:56
Today in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia — under the gracious hospitality of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — the United States and Ukraine took important steps toward restoring durable peace for Ukraine.
Representatives of both nations praised the bravery of the Ukrainian people in defense of their nation and agreed that now is the time to begin a process toward lasting peace.
The Ukrainian delegation reiterated the Ukrainian people’s strong gratitude to President Trump, the U.S. Congress, and the people of the United States for making possible meaningful progress toward peace.
Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation. The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace.
The United States will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine.
The delegations also discussed the importance of humanitarian relief efforts as part of the peace process, particularly during the abovementioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Both delegations agreed to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security. The United States committed to discussing these specific proposals with representatives from Russia. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated that European partners shall be involved in the peace process.
Lastly, both countries’ presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.
Which is why, at 9:00 PM EDT/3:00 AM local time in Ukraine, Russia is once again bombarding all of northern and central Ukraine with drone storms. Nothing says ceasefire like drone storms in the middle of the night.
It was easy for President Zelenskyy and his team to agree to the truce because it requires Putin/Russia to also do so. And Putin and his surrogates have shown absolutely no willingness to do so. Ukraine is basically calling Trump’s bluff.
The ceasefire ended before it even began. Expecting anything else from russia would have been naive.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 3:09 PM
The Duma has no actual say in any of this. They’ll do whatever Putin tells them to do.
Everyone realizes this except Trump
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Ceasefires are not peace, nor are they binding. Putin knows this all too well. He has violated every one of them.
— Steven Seegel (@stevenseegel.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Should Putin actually agree to one, I fully expect he’ll stage a series of attacks on his own forces or on Russian targets and attempt to blame them on Ukraine. He’s been doing this since the initial limited invasion in 2014.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The American Side Understands Our Arguments and Considers Our Proposals, I Am Grateful to President Trump for the Constructive Nature of the Dialogue Between Our Teams – Address by the President
11 March 2025 – 20:29
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Our delegation has just reported on the meeting with the American team in Saudi Arabia. The discussion lasted most of the day today, and it was a good discussion – constructive, our teams managed to cover many details. Our position is absolutely clear: Ukraine has been seeking peace from the very first second of the war, and we want to do everything to ensure that peace is achieved as soon as possible and in a reliable way – so that there is no more war. Our, Ukraine’s proposal for this meeting with the Americans consisted of three points: silence in the skies – meaning no missiles, bombs, or long-range drones – and silence at sea; and real measures to establish confidence in this whole situation, in which diplomacy is ongoing, which means, primarily, the release of prisoners – our military personnel and civilians – and the return of Ukrainian children who were taken to Russia. The American side understands our arguments and considers our proposals, I would like to thank President Trump for the constructive nature of the dialogue between our teams. And today, during the discussion, there was a proposal specifically from the American side to immediately take the first step beyond that and try to establish a complete ceasefire for 30 days, not only with regard to missiles, drones and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire frontline. Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take this step, and the United States of America needs to convince Russia to do so. That is, we agree, and if the Russians agree, the silence will take effect at that very moment. An important element in today’s discussions is America’s readiness to restore defense assistance to Ukraine and intelligence support. Once the agreements take effect, during these thirty days of silence, we, together with our partners, should have enough time to prepare all the aspects at the level of framework documents to ensure a reliable peace and lasting security guarantees. Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must also show whether it is ready to end the war – or continue it. The time has come for the whole truth. I thank all our diplomats and our team in Saudi Arabia today. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine. I thank each and every one who fights and works for our country and our people. We firmly preserve independence. We firmly protect the lives of our people. Of course, we express gratitude to everyone who helps Ukraine endure and develop – despite everything. There must be an honorable peace.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
It’s the morning of Day 104. Theater University students and actors – some of the most targeted people by the regime – held the first overnight protest. They are, for now, leaving the place, and will be back in the evening.
“Solidsrity! Freedom! Until the end!”
#GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:46 AM
Day 104. New, free and fair Parliamentary elections, and the release of the regime prisoners. The crisis will only deepen without this.
These two days, many stop at the Theater University that suspended students for protesting and it’s hard to 📷 people. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 2:08 PM
We have our rituals at #GeorgiaProtests. E.g., every day, people come to Rustaveli and to the Public Broadcaster that serves the regime. Then they march to Rustaveli, arriving with phone lights & enthusiastic chants. We greet with lights and respond to the chants. The reunion energizes our spirits.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Irakli Kerashvili, a plastic surgeon, who was detained for participating in protests, wrote a letter to his mother on Mother’s Day, March 3:
„Do not lose courage—grow stronger and more determined. We will achieve a glorious victory! I love you!”
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 3:06 AM
“We must be prepared for all possible scenarios because the greatest loss in this fight is our homeland. We have nothing bigger to lose,” writes Archil Museliants in his letter sent from prison. Archil was arrested for participating in pro-European protests.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Finland and several other NATO member states:
“The possibility that the [Eagle S] anchor had dropped accidentally is all but ruled out, investigators said, but they added there was a chance that gross negligence or bad weather had played a part.” www.wsj.com/world/europe…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 11:10 AM
“Investigators established only that the FSB, Russia’s largest security service, which also manages the country’s borders, held the ship for two days after it was loaded in one of Russia’s Baltic ports. They weren’t able to find out why it was held.” www.wsj.com/world/europe…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
From The Wall Street Journal:
Just after midnight on Dec. 26, a team of Finnish commandos dropped from two helicopters onto the deck of a ramshackle Russian oil tanker in the Baltic Sea and ordered the ship’s crew to sail into port.
They were acting on the orders of Finnish officials who suspected the Eagle S had hours earlier dragged its anchor along the seabed to slice through a vital power cable between Finland and Estonia. The Finnish action also potentially prevented the ship from cutting another cable nearby, officials say.
It was the latest incident of suspected sabotage involving ships carrying Russian cargo in the region, and the first time authorities had boarded a suspicious vessel while it was under way.
Then came the real work: finding the evidence to prove sabotage.
Finnish law-enforcement officials questioned the crew and scoured the 750-foot-long ship, digging through its logs and inspecting its anchor, which was torn from its chain during the incident. But Finnish and other officials familiar with the probe say they weren’t able to uncover enough evidence to issue arrest warrants or for prosecutors to press charges related to deliberate wrongdoing.
The ship was released on March 2, but three crew members are still under investigation and have to remain in the country, Finland’s police said in a statement.
Proving sabotage is difficult and requires significant evidence or testimonies to support the finding, say investigators, prosecutors and officials involved in the investigations. To issue an arrest warrant or bring a case, prosecutors must provide substantial evidence of intentional wrongdoing, rather than an accidental and unnoticed dropping of an anchor.
“Even if you show it was deliberate, it’s extremely unlikely you’ll find a paper trail linking the incident to a state actor,” said Elisabeth Braw, an expert in combat below the threshold of warfare, who is writing a book on subsea geopolitical conflict.
The difficulties of prosecuting such cases are frustrating Western officials who are trying to combat what they say is a hybrid war against critical infrastructure in the West that they blame on Russia.
The Kremlin, which didn’t respond to a request for comment, has denied attacks on Western infrastructure in the past.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has taken a newly aggressive posture in response to such events in the Baltic, home to a handful of Russia’s ice-free commercial ports, and one of the busiest trade corridors in the world. But holding anyone accountable for the incidents is proving hard.
The Eagle S captain told police the Christmastime incident was an accident, according to people familiar with the investigation. Caravella LLC-FZ, the Emirati company which owns the ship, didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Having found no link between the damaged cable and the Kremlin or any other government, the Finnish government has released the ship, the people said.
To keep the ship until now, prosecutors have focused on lesser offenses such as environmental and customs violations, these people said.
Captains of other vessels have also blamed mistakes for recent damage their ships are linked to in the Baltic.
In November, the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3 was suspected of dragging its anchor for miles along the Baltic seafloor. Western intelligence agencies alleged in private at the time that the captain was acting on the orders of Russian operatives while the ship was moored in a Russian dock earlier that month, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Investigations by German and other European authorities, including a search of the ship that Beijing only permitted to take place on the condition that Chinese officials led it, didn’t result in evidence to support that allegation, people familiar with that probe told the Journal.
Beijing didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The possibility that the anchor had dropped accidentally is all but ruled out, investigators said, but they added there was a chance that gross negligence or bad weather had played a part.
Investigators established only that the FSB, Russia’s largest security service, which also manages the country’s borders, held the ship for two days after it was loaded in one of Russia’s Baltic ports. They weren’t able to find out why it was held.
The FSB didn’t respond to a request for comment.Across the world’s 450 subsea cable systems, spanning almost one million miles, more than 150 technical faults and other problems occur each year globally, according to the International Cable Protection Committee, a trade group. Up to 80% of cable-damage incidents are caused by accidents linked to commercial fishing and ship anchors, the ICPC said.
Overall trends in accidents are hard to assess but the number of incidents involving severe harm is increasing, said Braw.
Four major Baltic incidents, which damaged undersea cables and a gas pipeline, occurred over the past 16 months. They all involved ships that had been operating between Russian ports or were carrying Russian cargo. The Kremlin has denied wrongdoing.
The incidents prompted NATO to launch a new mission, Baltic Sentry. It is conducting naval patrols and enhanced drone, satellite and electronic surveillance of Baltic Sea areas that are packed with critical infrastructure such as data and power cables, as well as gas pipelines and offshore wind farms.
In the first incident of suspected sabotage, in October 2023, Chinese bulk carrier Newnew Polar Bear cut a data cable and a natural-gas pipeline with its anchor. The ship was allowed to continue its journey despite being under investigation.
The Yi Peng 3 cut two data cables in the same region in the November incident. The Danish navy effectively forced the ship to stop, and China ordered the captain to wait for investigators to board the vessel, which was loaded with Russian fertilizer.
A month later, Finland detained the Eagle S, registered in the Cook Islands, on suspicion it had cut the power cable to Estonia.
On Jan. 26, Vezhen, a Bulgarian bulk carrier that had just departed the Russian port Ust-Luga, was detained and boarded by Swedish special police after damaging a subsea cable, in the first deployment of NATO’s Baltic Sentry. The ship was detained and later released by Swedish prosecutors.
The owner said armed Swedish officers “aggressively” boarded the Vezhen.
NATO, inspired by Finland’s decisive raid on the Eagle S, will continue acting forcefully to deter attacks on critical infrastructure, said James Appathurai, NATO assistant deputy secretary-general in charge of hybrid warfare.
“The captains and crews of ships that are thinking of acts of sabotage should be aware,” he said.
More at the link.
Back to Ukraine.
— Alina Poliakova 🇺🇦 (@poliakova.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Another large Russian drone and missile attack overnight. Out of 126 Shahed drones, 79 were shot down and 35 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
A single launched Iskander-M ballistic missile was shot down.
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) March 11, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Ukraine’s position before negotiations: 🧵
1️⃣ Ukrainians survived the winter despite constant Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. No blackout disaster, no collapse—Russia failed.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:22 AM
2️⃣ Ukraine has held the Kursk enclave for 8 months under heavy Russian pressure. Despite the odds, it’s still standing.
3️⃣ Near Pokrovsk, Ukraine is pushing back Russia’s offensive, regaining ground. Russia throws waves of troops, but the frontline holds.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:22 AM
4️⃣ Ukraine is mastering deep strikes—hitting targets in Leningrad and Moscow regions by creating and exploiting gaps in Russian air defenses
5️⃣ Russia’s army relies on North Korean troops, Soviet-era cars, and donkeys. In the past week, they’ve made zero progress in Ukraine.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:22 AM
So… who’s really holding the better cards?
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:22 AM
🇨🇦Roshel has delivered over 1,700 units of Senator armoured vehicles to Ukraine.
In December 2023, the 1,000th delivered vehicle was reported. This means that since then the company has been producing an average of slightly less than half a hundred units per month for Ukraine.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Ukrainian engineers are experimenting with mounting a “very nasty tactical charge” on heavy drones.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Chinese journalists have filmed a report with the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the first time, even participating in shelling Russian positions. Previously, this media outlet had only filmed reports with Russian troops.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Kharkiv:
Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ the city is under the russian drone attack right now ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Odesa:
A Barbados-flagged cargo ship carrying wheat was damaged in the russian missile attack on Odesa- media report.
The ship’s crew consisted of 12 members. 4 crew members were killed: 3 Syrians and 1 Ukrainian.
So much willingness to accept ceasefire from the russian side.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 4:30 PM
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The Siversk direction:
The massive enemy assault with an armored column was stopped by the fighters of OTU “Luhansk” in the Siversk direction. Approximate enemy personnel losses: 159 killed and wounded.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Dnipro:
The moment of the russian drone strike on Dnipro tonight 😱
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Dnipro right now after the russian attack on the city
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Moscow:
Moscow tonight. Russia says it shot down 337 drones over ten regions—the biggest attack of 2025. You reap what you sow.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 2:06 AM
A booster from a Russian air defense interceptor missile half-buried in a street in Moscow in the wake of a huge Ukrainian drone attack across large parts of European Russia. Russian military bloggers claim 337 Ukrainian drones were shot down.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Ryazan, Russia:
🔥✈️ Ukrainian drones struck “Stalnoi Kon” oil depot in Oryol and the Dyagilevo airfield near Ryazan.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 3:27 AM
Dawn in fascist Russia, and the massive Ukrainian drone attack still going on – Ukrainian drone filmed flying over Ramenskoye, about 40 km south of central Moscow. Russian sources claim 337 drones shot down all over Russia – possibly the biggest ever Ukrainian drone attack.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 3:22 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
The infamous Tbilisi stray dogs are an integral part of our protests as well as our loyal allies, good citizens, always barking at the regime police.
So people have apparently begun bringing some food for them.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Open thread!
What Can We Do? We Can Try Like Hell to Win These Special Elections
SpaceUnit
Ukrainians would be fools to trust anything coming out of Washington right now, including all peace proposals and “intelligence sharing”. This is bullshit.
Gin & Tonic
@SpaceUnit: Fortunately, Ukrainians are not fools.
Gin & Tonic
Wondering how “security assistance” gets resumed when I’ve seen multiple credible reports that the logistics hub at Rzeszow is being dismantled.
JoyceH
Meanwhile, the service chiefs of all Ukraine allies BUT US met today. Presumably while the talk pantomime goes on, the real friends of Ukraine are rushing supplies in their direction. And I further hope that France is getting them their Starlink replacement consoles – a system that can be turned off by a raging madman at any moment needs to be replaced with all dispatch.
trollhattan
How does Tulsi fit in the whole “again sharing intel” thing?
Parfigliano
Thank you Mr Silverman.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Parfigliano
@JoyceH: It needs to be taken away from the madman.
David Fud
Thanks, Adam. I have noted the Chinese media and the online speculation that they want to help Ukraine to prevent the US from grabbing rare earth minerals. It seems the Great Game is getting fully revved up. Does this line up with your thinking?
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
u
This is obviously meaningless bullshit, unless Putin agrees to this and actually adheres to the agreement. The likelihood of that is close to zero.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Rzeszow is not dismantled, no more than Vancouver International Airport has been dismantled.
A photo of a construction site north west of Rzeszow has gone viral as fake news.
Gin & Tonic
@u: It is not meaningless to the Ukrainians, who get (for now, anyway) tangible benefit.
John S.
Thanks for today’s updates, Adam.
Jay
@u:
Yup, this is the 26th so called “ceasefire” in Ukraine, if it ever happens, and ruZZia has broken 25 of them.
Putin will just string consort DJTidiot, minion L’il Marco, Davenport and Felon Husk along.
JaySinWA
Is there any reporting on what intelligence sharing was turned off by the US and is it clear that security assistance was in fact “immediately restored” in full?
It seems in other areas of our government it is a lot easier to turn things off than to get them turned back on again.
Unkown known
Curious where Trump goes next.
His whole line was “I am going to bring peace, but those warmongering Ukrainians are blocking it”. So now the headlines are all that Zelensky says ‘yes’ to his peace deal, and Russia says ‘no’. Even the people deep in their Fox holes have seen this.
As near as I can tell, Trump has two goals here: One is to be besties with Putin (meaning he just wants this whole Ukraine inconvenience out of the way), but the other is to be the seen as the strong statesman who wades in and fixes the conflict that Biden was powerless to fix, and do it within only 100 days. So now those two goals are at least temporarily at odds with each other.
He isn’t overly contained by reality (to put it lightly), but surely it’s going to take some real digging to get himself out of this bind.
Gin & Tonic
@Unkown known: He wants a Nobel Peace Prize, because the Black guy got one.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
I think that what @u meant was that the ceasefire is not a ceasefire unless ruZZia stops firing. And even if ruZZia does for a day, a week, a month, ruZZia will attack again.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: That is the question.
Viva BrisVegas
The free nations around the Baltic need to start intercepting every Russian connected ship traversing their waters. The nature of international shipping is that virtually all commercial vessels are in violation of at least some environmental and safety laws. Hold all of them until they are fixed. Their owners will get the message.
The Russians will of course retaliate, so keep our ships out of their jurisdiction.
Adam L Silverman
@Parfigliano: @Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@David Fud: Other than not really overtly committing to anything so as to stay out of the way while the Trump and his team self inflict damage on the US, I’m not sure what the PRC is doing.
Adam L Silverman
@Westyny: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@John S.: You’re welcome too.
Mea
Thank you Adam.
Repeating myself here, but these daily reports are where I learned about the protests in Georgia. I was wondering if I was just not paying attention so did a google search and
(1) Seeing the (in)frequency of articles illustrates again the value of Adam’s daily reports;
(2) I saw this article which I found informative for both the situation in Georgia and the history of the United States law. I am going to break the link since I don’t know the protocol for posting links but here is the first part:
https://globalvoices.org/2025/03/12/
and then also add: georgia-marks-100-days-of-protests/
I am not familiar with that website, and haven’t explored it enough to have an opinion, but the article was informative and helps me put Adam’s daily updates into context.
Adam L Silverman
@JaySinWA: The reporting was all over the map. It was all of it, plus turning off the long distance programs on the HIMARS, GMLRS, and other systems. Or it was just offensive and the defensive intel was still being pushed across.
Adam L Silverman
@Mea: You are most welcome.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/ColbyBadhwar/status/1899484085313012196#m
https://nitter.poast.org/ChrisO_wiki/status/1899534436020232204#m
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
wjca
With Trump busily trashing the US as a great power, China can give some attention to furthering Russia’s self-inflicted disaster. Which means quietly helping Ukraine destroy Russia’s military. It looks like a basic proxy war on China’s part, just without a proxy for Russia.
Draco7
@Mea: For current news, you might be interested in this website:
https://georgiatoday.ge/
Not sure if Georgian Dream threatens them, but the articles don’t seem the kind that they would approve. It’s a good source.
YY_Sima Qian
Phoenix TV, the Hong Kong based broadcaster that did the reporting from behind Ukrainian lines, is not formally part of the CPC regime propaganda apparatus (that being CCTV & CGTN). However, it is de facto part of the said apparatus. The channel is part of the standard package for cable TV in the PRC.
I don’t think CCTV or CGTN have ever reported from behind the Russian lines, only Phoenix TV has. So, it is notable that Phoenix TV is now showing the Ukrainian side, a subtle signal there, possibly the start of preparing the population for a shift in narrative on the War in Ukraine, & a change in Beijing’s role vis-a-vis the conflict. Apparently it is the 2nd installment of a series of reports by Phoenix TV from the Ukrainian side.
The reporter is also different. The reporter who had been covering from behind the Russian lines is a mid-aged male, strongly pro-Russian, & had covered the 2nd Chechen War in ’99, the hostage crisis at the Dubrovka Theater in ’02, Beslan in ’04, the Georgian War in ’08, the 1st Russian invasion of Ukraine in ’14, the Russian intervention in Syria from ’16, & the current invasion of Ukraine since the start in Feb. ’22. He had married the widow of a Russian paratrooper who had saved his life in Chechnya. Apparently, he has been recalled back to the PRC, going on speaking tours promoting Chinese patriotism. The change has been noted on Chinese social media in the last couple of days.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: My speculation is that PRC expects the war in Ukraine is heading toward an endgame, so it is pivoting its rhetoric to position itself to potentially take advantage, however things develop: relevance in the post-war Ukrainian reconstruction, but more importantly improve relations w/ the EU & help cement the trans-Atlantic break.
In any case, I don’t think it is in the PRC’s interest to see Russia dominate CEE & otherwise reform the Russian Empire. The PRC prefers a Russia that is strong enough to serve as viable counterweight to the US, but not so strong as to be a competing pole on the world stage, create enough mischief to distract the US & the EU, but not so much as to break apart any semblance of world order.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
For a while now it seems like they’ve been content to let Russia and the West pound on each other without dipping their toes too deep into the conflict.
My impression is that in an ideal world, the Chinese would be happy to watch Russia succeed at breaking up the West as a unified political (read: military) power (which seems all but certain and/or all but accomplished now that the U.S. is de facto out of NATO), but not crashing it economically to the level where it’s a Russia-level dysfunctional shithole rather than a wealthy and profitable export market (which seems all but assured if Russia becomes too dominant a player in European affairs).
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Thor Heyerdahl
Thanks as always Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Yes, that too.
Yutsano
I want to pet a Georgian stray doggo.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: With that kind of history I doubt he’d even get a tourist visa, let alone a journalism one.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t think he would be interested in the Ukrainian side of the story, let alone telling it.
YY_Sima Qian
This development has so many layers of ironies that I had to check if it was published by the Onion as an April Fools joke: